A.J. Burnett struck out four of the five batters he faced with the bases loaded in 2013. He hit the other one. Photo: Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports
The Pirates stand four games over .500 four weeks into the 2013 season. That’s good considering they’ve outscored their opponents by just one run, 89 to 88. In looking at the Pirates team, it’s tough to find strengths. The offense brings a .236/.308/.363 slash line into Sunday, not the stuff of champions. While drawing walks is a good quality for a team, when that is the only strength, the batters aren’t likely to do much damage.
On the pitching side, Pittsburgh hurlers strike out batters at a high rate, 8.3 per nine innings, tied for third in the National League. They are walking the most batters, however, 4.0 per nine, somewhat balancing out the high K rate. There’s been a bit of help on the pitching side, too, as their 3.47 team ERA is much lower than their 3.95 FIP and their 3.87 xFIP.
Which brings us to the real strength of the team so far, their defense. They own a UZR/150 of 10.1, fourth in the NL. The defense and the pitchers have also mitigated the high walk rate by turning double plays, 21 in 163 situations, 12.9%. That’s fourth in the majors and the NL. So the ERA of the pitching staff owes a bit to the fielders.
One place where luck fell on the side of the Pirates this season is in bases loaded situations. Saturday was a perfect example. St. Louis loaded the bases once, and A.J. Burnett recorded a strikeout to end the threat. The Pirates saw two such situations, scoring on a walk and then on an out. Pirates opponents are 1 for 17 with three walks and nine RBI with the bases loaded. Pirates batters went 7 for 15 with two doubles, a walk, and 15 RBI. In addition, Pirates pitchers record nine K in bases loaded situations, while the Pirates themselves struck out just once. That six run difference is enough to give the Bucs a slight run scoring edge over their opponents.
I’m not confident that any of this will last throughout the season. Pittsburgh, at this point, doesn’t seem to be a better team than in 2012. They are getting big K’s and double plays when they need them on defense, and avoiding them on offense. If those are skills rather than luck, then maybe this team can eek out enough close wins to put them over .500 for the first time since 1992.