Evan Grant tries to get a handle on Michael Young’s future by looking at the careers of similar players. Of the four players he uses for a comparison, Paul Molitor, Barry Larkin and Julio Franco posted better OBPs after age 32 than before. The fourth, Craig Biggio, still played very well.
Grant, however, fails to adjust for the era. Molitor, Larkin and Franco all played most of their early years before the offensive explosion of 1993. Biggio was 27 in 1993, so he peaked just as offense took off. I think what we’re seeing is that these people played well past 1993, but their decline was covered by the increase in offense of that era.
so, you’re either accusing them of being on steroids, or you’re discounting their performances because of the prolific use of steroids throughout the league.
@einstein: Not at all. There were many reasons for the offensive explosion of 1993, including expansion, new and smaller ballparks, and possibly a change in the manufacturing of the ball that tended to leave them at the tight-end of legal. All those factors pulled offense up. We saw the same thing in the 1920s. Players who turned 30 years old around 1920 tended to have the biggest positive difference between their 30s and 20s. The same happened with players who turned 30 around 1993. See Paul O’Neill.
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