The Angels and Yankees face off in the American League Championship Series, scheduled to start tonight, Friday, weather permitting. The following table shows league ranks for various offensive and pitching categories:

If you plug the teams runs per game into the Pythagorean formula, the Yankees should have a .518 winning percentage against the Angels. If you plug in the ERAs, the result is .519. So if the teams played 100 games against each other, we’d expect the Yankees to win 52 of them. These teams are very evenly matched. They of course split the ten games played between the two this year, the Yankees scoring 55 runs, the Angels 65.

The Angels offense reached base better than any season since Mike Scioscia’s first year in 2000. Their .350 OBP is the fourth best Angels mark of all time. Note that the Angels moved their OBP higher without sacrificing their batting average, which is the highest in the history of the franchise. Over most of the last decade, the Angels were a contact team; put the ball in play and see what happens. This season, they combined for 1601 walks+strikeouts, the third highest total in team history, and the highest since Scioscia’s first season. Basically, Mike took a very good offensive team, turned it into a hacking squad (and a very successful one) and now has come full circle back to a selective and dangerous offense.

Is this the right offense to defeat the Yankees, however? The hacking offense helped beat the Yankees during this decade, because it works well against poor defenses. Despite Jeter’s improvement at shortstop this season, the Yankees are not a good defensive team. The Yankees pitchers cover it well by leading the league in strikeouts. That’s why the Yankees are in the middle of the pack in terms of total fielding runs by near the bottom in terms of runs per ball in play. The Angels no longer neutralize a strikeout staff by making contact, so while their offense is better than the ones we’ve seen beat the Yankees in the past, it plays into the strengths of the current New York staff, not against them.

The Yankees aren’t bad at making contact this season. They did lead the league in walks, but only the Orioles struck out less. They don’t hack, but when the swing they connect. Given that the Angels staff as a whole doesn’t strike out many batters, the Yankees should get plenty of hits against this team. The Angels do put a good defense on the field, so that should help, but the Yankees are much more likely to drive the ball out of the park, and it’s tough to defend against that.

I think it’s fairly impressive that the Yankees finished third in ERA given that they posted a 5.79 mark in April. So the Yankees pitching is somewhat better than their 4.28 finish. The Yankees offense rates very close to 6.0 runs per game by the runs created formula, so they are also better than they look.

It’s tough to find advantages for the Angels outside of defense. The Angels steal quite a bit, but the Yankees steal with a much higher success rate. The Angels get on bases, but the Yankees do it better. The Angels hit for power, but the Yankees do it better. The Angels and Yankees pitching staffs are okay, but New York has the advantage in strikeouts.

For the first time they’ve met in the playoffs this decade, I think the Yankees don’t have weaknesses the Angels can easily exploit. I expect it to be a close series, but I expect the Yankees to win. I give them a 55% chance of advancing to the World Series.