For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:
- 0.417 — Aaron Judge batting against Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.392 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.345 — Cody Bellinger batting against Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.312 — Pablo Reyes batting against Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.310 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.310 — Anthony Volpe batting against Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.308 — Jasson Dominguez batting against Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.304 — J.C. Escarra batting against Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.303 — Benjamin Rice batting against Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.303 — Jorbit Vivas batting against Antonio Senzatela.
It’s pick your favorite Yankees batter day in Colorado. Senzatela allowed a .380 BA this season with few walks and few strikeouts. Log5 compares stats to the average. If one compares an extremely above average hitter to an extremely below average pitcher, you get an even more extreme result for the batter.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.417, 0.784 — Aaron Judge batting against Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.392, 0.754 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.345, 0.719 — Cody Bellinger batting against Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.277, 0.719 — Luis Arraez batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.292, 0.710 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Bailey Ober.
- 0.297, 0.707 — Brendan Donovan batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.290, 0.707 — Trea Turner batting against Gunnar Hoglund.
- 0.274, 0.706 — Miguel Andujar batting against Jesus Luzardo.
- 0.272, 0.705 — Jackson Merrill batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.284, 0.705 — Jacob Wilson batting against Jesus Luzardo.
I like the NN because it does a good job of tempering extreme pitcher results. The pitcher can raise someone like Bellinger to near the top of the list, but the best players at producing hits frequently should make it to the top ten.
Both systems agree on the top three , so pick your favorite pairing or Judge, Goldschmidt and Bellinger for your double down today.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Hi David,
Have you ever considered adding a new parameter to your models?
I have an idea, and I think it will work. What about team batting average, OBP, SO and BB against the particular starting pitcher on that day?
The reason I say it, is one way to get a higher chance for a hit is if you cycle through the lineup more, specifically if the top 5 players which are usually the best get a 5th PA. In order to get a 5th PA you would need 41 plate appearances at a minimum. You could find a certain number of games with that plate appearance minimum (in 9 inning games only) and see what the averages or percentages are for BA OBP SO BB, overall for games with that 41+ PA characteristic. Then set these averages and percentages and go out looking for them.
Not that I would want you to do more work if you don’t want to, so I could research a certain number of games, if you want me to try it. You just tell me the number of games to do, that in your mind would be statistically significant and I would do it.
I like to think the model captures that. One interesting thing is that the model seems to pick up on batters who hit at the top of the order. As sluggers have moved more into the two slot, they have appeared more in the top ten NN lists. So in fact, it may very indirectly be picking up that concept.
Btw – weather in Denver today is set to be bad during game time so be aware when picking a Yankee!