For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top picks:
- 0.330 — Luis Arraez batting against Ryan Feltner.
- 0.327 — Steven Kwan batting against Hunter Brown.
- 0.307 — Jose Altuve batting against Carlos Carrasco.
- 0.300 — Josh Naylor batting against Hunter Brown.
- 0.294 — Jose Ramirez batting against Hunter Brown.
- 0.292 — William Contreras batting against Tyler Alexander.
- 0.289 — Ke’Bryan Hayes batting against Alex Wood.
- 0.289 — Jeremy Pena batting against Carlos Carrasco.
- 0.285 — Andres Gimenez batting against Hunter Brown.
- 0.283 — Michael Harris II batting against Luis Castillo.
- 0.283 — Yainer Diaz batting against Carlos Carrasco.
It looks like a good day for the Guardians against Hunter Brown. Note that the Tigers and Cardinals play a doubleheader to make up Monday night’s postponement, so be careful which game you pick.
The NN produced these high probability picks:
- 0.330, 0.753 — Luis Arraez batting against Ryan Feltner.
- 0.307, 0.722 — Jose Altuve batting against Carlos Carrasco.
- 0.327, 0.716 — Steven Kwan batting against Hunter Brown.
- 0.292, 0.700 — William Contreras batting against Tyler Alexander.
- 0.279, 0.697 — Mookie Betts batting against Jordan Montgomery.
- 0.283, 0.696 — Michael Harris II batting against Luis Castillo.
- 0.300, 0.694 — Josh Naylor batting against Hunter Brown.
- 0.289, 0.689 — Jeremy Pena batting against Carlos Carrasco.
- 0.262, 0.688 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jordan Montgomery.
- 0.283, 0.688 — Yainer Diaz batting against Carlos Carrasco.
The two system agree quite a bit today, although the NN substitutes in a couple of Dodgers. Arraez once again tops both lists, while Kwan and Altuve tie for the double down pick. Feltner is interesting, as he struck out 30 in 25 1/3 innings, but allowed 34 hits. Contact works against him, and Arraez makes contact.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!