For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top picks:
- 0.349 — Luis Arraez batting against Trevor Williams.
- 0.323 — Corey Seager batting against Dallas Keuchel.
- 0.304 — Whit Merrifield batting against Ty Blach.
- 0.296 — Jose Altuve batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.293 — Ezequiel Duran batting against Dallas Keuchel.
- 0.288 — Nathaniel Lowe batting against Dallas Keuchel.
- 0.288 — Davis Schneider batting against Ty Blach.
- 0.284 — Yainer Diaz batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.284 — Mickey Moniak batting against Paul Blackburn
- .0.283 — Julio Rodriguez batting against David Peterson.
- 0.283 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Paul Blackburn.
- 0.283 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Ty Blach.
With a .345 BA, Seager now qualifies for the AL Batting Title. With Arraez at .350, there could be a nice battle for the MLB title. Given that there is no distinction between the leagues now, the MLB batting title should be the pinnacle.
Note that the Astros removed Altuve from the game on Friday after a foul ball off his leg. It seems he hit that spot a lot lately, so watch to see if he is in the lineup today.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.349, 0.775 — Luis Arraez batting against Trevor Williams.
- 0.323, 0.734 — Corey Seager batting against Dallas Keuchel.
- 0.278, 0.716 — Freddie Freeman batting against Bryce Elder.
- 0.304, 0.707 — Whit Merrifield batting against Ty Blach.
- 0.279, 0.703 — Harold Ramirez batting against Logan Allen.
- 0.272, 0.700 — Joey Meneses batting against Johnny Cueto.
- 0.296, 0.700 — Jose Altuve batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.293, 0.699 — Ezequiel Duran batting against Dallas Keuchel.
- 0.280, 0.698 — Yandy Diaz batting against Logan Allen.
- 0.288, 0.696 — Nathaniel Lowe batting against Dallas Keuchel.
- 0.263, 0.696 — Ronald Acuna batting against Emmet Sheehan.
Once again, the two systems are in agreement at the top of the list, and in general the leaders in the batting races are expected to do well. That’s not always the case, as often the leaders draw so many walks that their hit averages are low. It’s Arraez and Seager for the double down.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!