For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top picks:
- 0.330 — Luis Arraez batting against Jose Berrios.
- 0.314 — Matt McLain batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.307 — T.J. Friedl batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.301 — Bo Bichette batting against Bryan Hoeing.
- 0.291 — Kevin Newman batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.285 — Spencer Steer batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.283 — Tyler Stephenson batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.281 — Jonathan India batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.279 — Joey Meneses batting against Jack Flaherty.
- 0.275 — Jake Fraley batting against Austin Gomber.
It looks like a good day for the Reds hitters as they come home to face Gomber of the Rockies. Opponents own a .313/.375/.574 slash line against the Colorado starter, although that drops to .265/.346/.434 when Gomber is away from Coors Field.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.330, 0.771 — Luis Arraez batting against Jose Berrios.
- 0.301, 0.729 — Bo Bichette batting against Bryan Hoeing.
- 0.279, 0.711 — Joey Meneses batting against Jack Flaherty.
- 0.314, 0.700 — Matt McLain batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.307, 0.693 — T.J. Friedl batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.262, 0.685 — Corey Seager batting against Jesse Scholtens.
- 0.273, 0.683 — Whit Merrifield batting against Bryan Hoeing.
- 0.261, 0.681 — Nico Hoerner batting against Osvaldo Bido.
- 0.291, 0.677 — Kevin Newman batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.267, 0.676 — Riley Greene batting against Jordan Lyles.
The Nationals and Cardinals play a late afternoon game, so be aware to get your pick in early if you decide on one of those hitters. Once again, Arraez comes out way on top of the list, and should be rested after an off-day on Sunday.
Bichette and McLain tie for the consensus double down pick.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!