The Athletics face the Mariners as Oakland tries to end their seven game losing streak which pushed their winning percentage under .200. JP Sears takes on Logan Gilbert. Sears struck out 51 batters in 48 2/3 innings while walking just ten, which is great. On the other hand, he’s not fooling batters in the strike zone, as he allowed 46 hits, eleven of them home runs. What’s worse, his home runs tend to come with men on base, so 19 of the 28 runs against him came on home runs.

Gilbert is a bit similar, with 63 K and 10 BB in 52 innings, but he only allowed five home runs. His somewhat high ERA for those good three-true outcomes is a result of him giving up a .317 BA with runners in scoring position.

As an update to this analysis of the Athletics beating the 1962 Mets for futility, the probability for them finishing with no more than 40 wins is now in the range of 0.10 to 0.32. Their 95% confidence interval winning percentage is quickly converging on the replacement team winning percentage.