For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
Here are the Log5 Method picks:
- 0.338 — Trea Turner batting against Chris Paddack.
- 0.331 — Justin Turner batting against Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.324 — Salvador Perez batting against Keegan Akin.
- 0.322 — Bo Bichette batting against Jordan Lyles.
- 0.320 — David Fletcher batting against Chris Flexen.
- 0.319 — Luis Arraez batting against Jose Urena.
- 0.319 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Jordan Lyles.
- 0.317 — A.J. Pollock batting against Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.315 — Hanser Alberto batting against Keegan Akin.
- 0.313 — Teoscar Hernandez batting against Jordan Lyles.
It’s a baseball Turner overdrive today! Note that the Marlins and Phillies are scheduled to play a doubleheader, as are the Twins and Tigers so be careful picking from those games. Also, with COVID-19 positive tests coming from the Yankees, and players at the All-Star game, don’t be surprised to see some postponements today.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.338, 0.750 — Trea Turner batting against Chris Paddack.
- 0.320, 0.735 — David Fletcher batting against Chris Flexen.
- 0.322, 0.731 — Bo Bichette batting against Jordan Lyles.
- 0.319, 0.728 — Luis Arraez batting against Jose Urena.
- 0.331, 0.726 — Justin Turner batting against Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.324, 0.722 — Salvador Perez batting against Keegan Akin.
- 0.305, 0.721 — Jose Iglesias batting against Chris Flexen.
- 0.319, 0.719 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Jordan Lyles.
- 0.276, 0.719 — Michael Brantley batting against Dylan Cease.
- 0.299, 0.717 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Domingo German.
Fletcher comes back from the break with twenty four game hit streak. Note that he struck out just eight times in 103 PA during the streak. Trea Turner is the unanimous first choice, with Fletcher, Bichette, and Justin Turner tied for consensus second choice.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!