For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
Here are the Log5 Method picks:
- 0.314 — Michael Brantley batting against Jameson Taillon.
- 0.306 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Aaron Nola.
- 0.301 — Nolan Arenado batting against Trevor Williams.
- 0.297 — Tommy Edman batting against Trevor Williams.
- 0.295 — Justin Turner batting against Merrill Kelly.
- 0.295 — Salvador Perez batting against Elijah Morgan.
- 0.294 — Yadier Molina batting against Trevor Williams.
- 0.292 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Trevor Williams.
- 0.290 — Adam Frazier batting against Thomas Szapucki.
- 0.290 — Tyler O’Neill batting against Trevor Williams.
Brantley is 0 for 11 in his last three games, including the Astros suffering consecutive shutouts at the hands of Yankees. He’s either due or in a slump.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.314, 0.737 — Michael Brantley batting against Jameson Taillon.
- 0.289, 0.736 — Tim Anderson batting against Spenser Watkins.
- 0.306, 0.725 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Aaron Nola.
- 0.289, 0.712 — David Fletcher batting against Hector Santiago.
- 0.281, 0.706 — Jose Iglesias batting against Hector Santiago.
- 0.268, 0.703 — Jean Segura batting against Nick Pivetta.
- 0.295, 0.702 — Salvador Perez batting against Elijah Morgan.
- 0.290, 0.702 — Adam Frazier batting against Thomas Szapucki.
- 0.295, 0.700 — Justin Turner batting against Merrill Kelly.
- 0.285, 0.697 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Jameson Taillon.
Anderson is on an eleven game hit streak, Fletcher hit in twenty three in a row. Bogaerts is the consensus second pick, however.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!