For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

• 0.350 — Tim Anderson batting against Matt Harvey.
• 0.331 — Trea Turner batting against Josh Tomlin.
• 0.328 — Jose Abreu batting against Matt Harvey.
• 0.316 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Asher Wojciechowski.
• 0.306 — Eloy Jimenez batting against Matt Harvey.
• 0.304 — Jose Iglesias batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
• 0.303 — Hanser Alberto batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
• 0.299 — Franmil Reyes batting against Brett Anderson.
• 0.298 — Howie Kendrick batting against Josh Tomlin.
• 0.298 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Michael Fiers.

Tim Anderson leads the AL with a .360 BA. LeMahieu owns a higher BA, but needs more plate appearances to qualify for the title.

Here are the NN picks:

• 0.350, 0.766 — Tim Anderson batting against Matt Harvey.
• 0.331, 0.748 — Trea Turner batting against Josh Tomlin.
• 0.316, 0.745 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Asher Wojciechowski.
• 0.303, 0.735 — Hanser Alberto batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
• 0.304, 0.731 — Jose Iglesias batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
• 0.328, 0.729 — Jose Abreu batting against Matt Harvey.
• 0.298, 0.726 — Howie Kendrick batting against Josh Tomlin.
• 0.290, 0.719 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Julio Urias.
• 0.298, 0.709 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Michael Fiers.
• 0.306, 0.704 — Eloy Jimenez batting against Matt Harvey.

Anderson gets a nice boost from facing Harvey. The league hit average (Hits/PA) stands at .217. Harvey’s 2020 hit average parameter stands at .259, while his 2018-2020 parameter stands at .266. An excellent hitter faces a pitcher with a history of allowing hits, and the probability goes way up. The .766 mark is the highest probability seen so far this season. Anderson and Turner are the unanimous 1-2.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!