For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

• 0.325 — Dee Gordon batting against Michael Pineda.
• 0.315 — Melky Cabrera batting against Eric Lauer.
• 0.308 — Omar Narvaez batting against Michael Pineda.
• 0.305 — Jeff McNeil batting against Anibal Sanchez.
• 0.302 — Domingo Santana batting against Michael Pineda.
• 0.298 — Jean Segura batting against Zach Davies.
• 0.295 — Josh Bell batting against Eric Lauer.
• 0.292 — Whit Merrifield batting against Lance Lynn.
• 0.289 — Timothy Beckham batting against Michael Pineda.
• 0.286 — Jorge Polanco batting against Erik Swanson.

The opposition is hitting .302 against Pineda with a .339 OBP, so if you’re going to reach base against the big right-hander, it most likely will be via the hit. Gordon is hitting .304 with a .336 OBP, so it’s a match made in heaven.

Here are the neural network picks:

• 0.315, 0.730 — Melky Cabrera batting against Eric Lauer.
• 0.325, 0.727 — Dee Gordon batting against Michael Pineda.
• 0.298, 0.726 — Jean Segura batting against Zach Davies.
• 0.305, 0.725 — Jeff McNeil batting against Anibal Sanchez.
• 0.285, 0.708 — Christian Yelich batting against Zach Eflin.
• 0.292, 0.705 — Whit Merrifield batting against Lance Lynn.
• 0.272, 0.702 — Howie Kendrick batting against Zack Wheeler.
• 0.283, 0.701 — Freddie Freeman batting against Adam Wainwright.
• 0.286, 0.700 — Jorge Polanco batting against Erik Swanson.
• 0.308, 0.699 — Omar Narvaez batting against Michael Pineda.

Cabrera moves to the top of the list as the NN weighs the batter accomplishments more than the pitcher failures. Cabrera and Gordon are the double down picks.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!