August 9, 2017

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.347 — Jose Altuve batting against Miguel A Gonzalez
0.339 — Manuel Pina batting against Bartolo Colon
0.337 — Ryan Braun batting against Bartolo Colon
0.336 — Orlando Arcia batting against Bartolo Colon
0.330 — Hernan Perez batting against Bartolo Colon
0.328 — Travis Shaw batting against Bartolo Colon
0.322 — Elvis Andrus batting against Rafael Montero
0.315 — Jesus Aguilar batting against Bartolo Colon
0.312 — Domingo Santana batting against Bartolo Colon
0.310 — Eric Sogard batting against Bartolo Colon

Bartolo Colon appears to be the most hittable pitcher in baseball. Despite Colon’s ability to give up hits without walking batters, Altuve still springs to the top of the Log5 list. With a two for four Tuesday night, Altuve is batting .365 on the season.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.347, 0.782 — Jose Altuve batting against Miguel A Gonzalez.
0.297, 0.749 — Daniel Murphy batting against Adam Conley.
0.307, 0.741 — Gerardo Parra batting against Trevor Bauer.
0.298, 0.737 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Trevor Bauer.
0.337, 0.736 — Ryan Braun batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.291, 0.731 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Trevor Bauer.
0.322, 0.731 — Elvis Andrus batting against Rafael Montero.
0.339, 0.729 — Manuel Pina batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.336, 0.727 — Orlando Arcia batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.304, 0.725 — Eric Hosmer batting against Mike Leake.

The NN results see less Colon, and make Altuve the unanimous choice. Ryan Braun is the consensus second choice if you are thinking of doubling down.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman 34
Christopher Herrmann 27
Joc Pederson 25
Raul Mondesi 23
Aaron Hill 23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 23
Mark Trumbo 20
Alcides Escobar 20
Kyle Higashioka 20
Arismendy Alcantara 20
Taylor Featherston 19
Chris Stewart 19
Jorge Soler 18
Mark Zagunis 18
Martin Maldonado 18
Eric Sogard 16
Victor Martinez 16
Tommy Joseph 16
Jay Bruce 16
Tony John Wolters 16
Paul Janish 15
Rio Ruiz 15
Greg Bird 15
Chase D'Arnaud 15
Justin Upton 15
Emilio Bonifacio 14
Ryan Schimpf 14
Jose Reyes 14
Corey Dickerson 14
Allen Cordoba 14
Wil Myers 14
Cristhian Adames 14
Austin Romine 14
Jesus Aguilar 13
Chris Coghlan 13
A.J. Pollock 13
Lewis Brinson 13
Albert Pujols 13
Stephen Drew 13
Bradley Zimmer 13
Martin Prado 12
Gary Sanchez 12
Nolan Fontana 12
Alex Gordon 12
Nick Ahmed 12
Matthew Szczur 12
Danny Ortiz 11
Amed Rosario 11
Nomar Mazara 11
Alex Presley 11
Cory Spangenberg 11
Scott Van Slyke 11
Howie Kendrick 11
Jose Ramirez 11
Eduardo Escobar 11
Kelby Tomlinson 11
Kevin Plawecki 11
J.T. Realmuto 11
Mallex Smith 11
Salvador Perez 11
Brock Stassi 11
Kaleb Cowart 10
Tom Murphy 10
Zach Granite 10
Jordan Luplow 10
Brock Holt 10
Yandy Diaz 10
JaCoby Jones 10
Adrian Gonzalez 10
Jabari Blash 10
Jared W. Hoying 10
Erik Gonzalez 10
Luis Sardinas 10
Jonathan Lucroy 10
Tyler Collins 10
Carlos Correa 10

Good luck!

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