The Cubs and the Cardinals renew their rivalry for the first time in the post season. The Cardinals finished with the best record in the National League, the Cubs the third best, and they are evenly matched. Both teams employ good field managers and a strong front office. It should be fun.

The Cardinals offense seems to be less than the sum of its parts. They posted a decent batting average and a decent OBP. They don’t hit for much power, but it seems like they should rank higher than 11th in runs per game. They posted a very poor stolen base percentage, so maybe those extra outs took a toll.

The Cubs have more of a Moneyball look, with a poor batting average, but a good OBP. They also hit for much more power than the Cardinals. I was looking at double plays to see if the Cardinals hit into a lot. They don’t but the Cubs hit into the fewest GDPs in the NL, and also induced the fewest. Don’t expect to see more than one GDP in a Cubs game.

Once again, the Cardinals ability to prevent runs is disconnected from the components of run prevention. With the best ERA in the league, they don’t strike out that many batters. They don’t walk a lot of batters, but they are closer to league average than the leaders in the category. The defense isn’t particularly good at turning batted balls into outs. As with the offense, the home runs are telling. So to a first approximation, as the home runs go, so go the Cardinals. The Cardinals pitchers allowed a .210/.296/.322 slash line with runners in scoring position, and that also helped.

Looking at these numbers, the Cubs look like the better pitching staff. One interesting thing is that both teams get about the same performance from the bullpen as they get from their starters. That means they don’t need to be afraid to go to the pen when someone gets in trouble.

This is a tough one to call. When teams are even, I give the advantage to the home team, so I’ll go with the Cardinals with a 52% chance of winning the series