Monthly Archives: July 2018

July 28, 2018

Games of the Day

1 Reply

I will defer to the Brad Keller against Luis Severino comment from yesterday.

The Cubs send Jose Quintana against the Cardinals and Miles Mikolas. Quintana found his groove in July, posting a 1.89 ERA in July despite nine walks in 19 innings. Batters only accumulated 14 hits against him. Mikolas is the feel good story of the season, ranking fourth in the NL in ERA at 2.82 after not having pitched in the majors since 2014.

Alex Wood takes the hill for the Dodgers against the Braves and Max Fried. Wood owns a 1-3 record in four starts against his former team with a 6.05 ERA. Fried burns batters, with 25 K in 20 2/3 innings.

Finally, the Brewers try to continue their domination of the Giants as Jhoulys Chacín takes on Johnny Cueto. Chacin stands 3-0 in July with just four walks allowed in 23 2/3 innings. Cueto owns a 4.50 ERA at home this season where he allowed five home runs in 22 innings.

Enjoy!

July 28, 2018

Moustakas to the Brewers

The Royals traded Mike Moustakas to the Brewers in the middle of the night:

To what degree this deal might make Moustakas again some kind of factor in a Royals restoration remains to be seen, of course, in whatever those acquired for him — outfielder Brett Phillips and pitcher Jorge Lopez — come to mean to the franchise.

But that won’t be known for some time: Each has spent most of this season with Class AAA Colorado Springs; Phillips will report to the Royals as soon as possible and Lopez is headed to Class AAA Omaha.

Moustakas was one of the players nobody wanted last winter, and the Royals signed him to $11 million less than the qualifying deal they originally offered. His offense got worse but his defense improved, and now they flipped that low investment into two players. Phillips owns an amazing minor league BABIP, but strikes out so often his batting average is low. Lopez does a good job of keeping the ball in the park, but I doubt either of them will be stars. It’s not really the start of a rebuild for the Royals, it’s more an acquisition of MLB ready players.

July 28, 2018

Two Momentous Events

Chipper Jones may miss his Hall of Fame Induction ceremony for another major event:

After his election into the Hall in January, he announced that he had another child on the way. A boy, his sixth.

He and wife, Taylor, picked Cooper as the child’s name. Cooper’s expected due date is the day after the induction ceremony.

…

The couple have a contingency plan in place should Taylor go into labor ahead of the ceremony. They have visited the local hospital in Cooperstown, just in case, and his speech will be pre-recorded.

If the baby comes tonight, Chipper can hold it while he gives his speech tomorrow!

July 28, 2018

Rare Walk Offs

The Red Sox earned their third walk-off win of the season Friday night. That ranks near the bottom of the majors, and that actually makes sense. Great teams tend to win big, so they don’t get into situations where a walk-off win is needed. The Dodgers have just one walk-off win, the Indians and Diamondbacks two, the Red Sox three and the Cubs four. The Giants lead the majors with eight, but they are falling out of the NL West race. The good teams near the top are the Brewers and Braves, both with seven. Walk-off wins are exciting, but don’t correlate well to the overall quality of the team.

In the like father like daughter category, I was at the Red Sox game on July 14th when they won on a tenth inning home run, and my daughter was at Fenway last night for the tenth inning walk-off home run win.

July 28, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.339 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Brett Anderson.
0.338 — Nolan Arenado batting against Brett Anderson.
0.331 — Gerardo Parra batting against Brett Anderson.
0.324 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Brett Anderson.
0.315 — Trevor Story batting against Brett Anderson.
0.306 — Matt M Duffy batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.302 — Jose Altuve batting against Ariel Jurado.
0.298 — Odubel Herrera batting against Matt Harvey.
0.297 — Tom Murphy batting against Brett Anderson.
0.296 — Eddie Rosario batting against Rick Porcello.
0.295 — Michael Brantley batting against Blaine Hardy.
0.293 — Noel A Cuevas batting against Brett Anderson.
0.291 — Ian Desmond batting against Brett Anderson.
0.291 — Albert Almora batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.290 — Jean Segura batting against Jaime Barria.
0.288 — Joey Wendle batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.286 — Garrett Hampson batting against Brett Anderson.
0.284 — Jorge Alfaro batting against Matt Harvey.
0.282 — Maikel Franco batting against Matt Harvey.
0.280 — Jose Ramirez batting against Blaine Hardy.
0.280 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Matt Harvey.
0.280 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Ariel Jurado.
0.280 — Freddie Freeman batting against Alex Wood.
0.279 — Nick Williams batting against Matt Harvey.
0.279 — Mallex Smith batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.279 — Scooter Gennett batting against Vincent Velasquez.

Anderson pitched just 29 1/3 innings this season so he looks this bad despite some regression to the league hit average. The BABIP against him in 2018 is .373.

Note that the Royals and Yankees are playing a split double header today, so if you are planning on picking someone from those games, make sure you choose the correct game.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.339, 0.753 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Brett Anderson.
0.338, 0.746 — Nolan Arenado batting against Brett Anderson.
0.302, 0.744 — Jose Altuve batting against Ariel Jurado.
0.331, 0.739 — Gerardo Parra batting against Brett Anderson.
0.290, 0.729 — Jean Segura batting against Jaime Barria.
0.296, 0.726 — Eddie Rosario batting against Rick Porcello.
0.291, 0.725 — Albert Almora batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.324, 0.725 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Brett Anderson.
0.295, 0.721 — Michael Brantley batting against Blaine Hardy.
0.306, 0.721 — Matt M Duffy batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.279, 0.713 — Scooter Gennett batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.274, 0.711 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jake Odorizzi.
0.272, 0.711 — Daniel Murphy batting against Trevor Richards.
0.315, 0.710 — Trevor Story batting against Brett Anderson.
0.275, 0.709 — Dee Gordon batting against Jaime Barria.
0.280, 0.709 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Ariel Jurado.
0.298, 0.706 — Odubel Herrera batting against Matt Harvey.
0.280, 0.706 — Jose Ramirez batting against Blaine Hardy.
0.273, 0.705 — Mookie Betts batting against Jake Odorizzi.
0.276, 0.704 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Gio Gonzalez.
0.261, 0.703 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jacob deGrom.
0.280, 0.703 — Freddie Freeman batting against Alex Wood.
0.276, 0.700 — Javier Baez batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.277, 0.698 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.267, 0.697 — Matt Kemp batting against Max Fried.
0.261, 0.697 — Avisail Garcia batting against John Axford.

The NN matches the Log5 perfectly on the top two. It should be a good day to double down on Rockies, with Blackmon and Arenado at the top.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

July 28, 2018

Best Batter Today

Christian Yelich keeps climbing the chart, now sitting fourth in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He hit two doubles Friday night against the Giants in the Brewers 3-1 win. Mike Trout went 1 for 3 with a walk as the Angels beat the Mariners 4-3 to stay at number one. Alex Bregman drew a walk to stay in second place as the Astros fell to the Rangers 11-2. Matt Carpenter drew a walk to stay in third place as the Cardinals beat the Cubs 5-2. Mookie Betts hit a walk-off home run, but that was not enough to overtake Jose Ramirez. Ramirez drew two walks to stay in the top five as Cleveland beat Detroit 8-3.

July 28, 2018

Saturday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.

July 27, 2018

Diamond Escobar

The Diammondbacks acquired Eduardo Escobar from the Twins.

The Arizona Diamondbacks acquired switch-hitting infielder Eduardo Escobar from the Minnesota Twins on Friday for minor league right-hander Jhoan Duran and outfielders Gabriel Maciel and Ernie De La Trinidad.

The 29-year-old Escobar hit .274 with 15 home runs, 63 RBIs and a major league-best 37 doubles in 97 games this season, his seventh with the Twins. From Venezuela, Escobar has played third base, shortstop and second base this season. In eight seasons in the majors with the Chicago White Sox and Minnesota, he has a .256 average with 63 homers and 287 RBIs.

Third base can use power, and shorstop can use some OBP in Arizona. Escobar can supply either.

Duran is seasonal age 20, and found his strikeout groove the last two seasons. Maciel is 19 years old and doing a great job getting on base at A ball. Trinidad is 22 and gets on base and hits for power. Looks like the Twins got three useful players.

July 27, 2018

The Other Side of New Jersey

The Phillies acquired Asdrubal Cabrera from the Mets:

The deal was announced Friday night. The Phillies traded Double-A right-hander Franklyn Kilome to get Cabrera.

Cabrera was hitting .277 with 18 home runs and 58 RBIs as the Mets’ second baseman. The 32-year-old Cabrera was a two-time All-Star shortstop for Cleveland earlier in his career.

Cabrera is supplying good power with an okay OBP. The Phillies need offensive help at shortstop, where Cabrera hasn’t played much the last two years, getting no plate plate appearances as a SS this season.

I would not call Kilome a hot prospect. His walks are a little too high and his strikeouts are a little two low, but he does keep the ball in the park.

This is a deal that should help the Phillies.

July 27, 2018

Pitch Framing is Cheating

4 Replies

It’s nice to see others are thinking about pitch framing as cheating. I thought that opposing managers should point out to the home plate umpire when an opponent is a good pitch framer. Managers won’t do that, however, as they may have or have in the future a good pitch framer on their team. The league, however, should point this out. Before each game the league should send a report to the home plate umpire on the framing tendencies of the catchers starting the game, and instruct them to call the ball in relation to the plate, not where the catcher makes the grab. Note that this is just as important for poor pitch framers. It’s the ball that matters, not how it is caught.

July 27, 2018

Games of the Day

The Royals send rookie Brad Keller against veteran CC Sabathia as Kansas City visits the Yankees. Keller’s stats are odd. He throws hard enough, he fastball coming in at 95 miles an hour, but he pitches to contact. He struck out just 44 and walked 29 in 70 1/3 innings. Despite the low K numbers, he only allowed 63 hits. He keeps the ball in the park as well, allowing just two home runs. Sabathia evolved into more of a contact pitcher over time, but with a lower walk rate and higher HR rate than Keller. If you like seeing the ball hit, this might be the game for you.

Aces butt heads in Atlanta as the Dodgers send Clayton Kershaw against Mike Foltynewicz. Kershaw’s WHIP is over 1.00 for the first time since 2012, as both his rate of hits and walks are higher. Foltynewicz may be tiring, as he made three poor starts in a row.

Oakland is now battling not just for a wild card, but a division title as well as they trail Seattle by one game and Houston by six games. The Athletics put their six game win streak on the line against the Rockies, just two games out of first place in the NL West. Both teams are 8-2 in their last 10 games. Sean Manaea takes on Kyle Freeland. Manaea had trouble with the NL this year, going 1-2 with a 4.45 ERA in five starts. He allowed five home runs in 28 1/3 innings. Freeland is the master of Coors Field, with a 2.76 ERA at home this season, allowing just 40 hits in 49 innings.

Enjoy!

July 27, 2018

Trade Roundup

The Astros acquired catcher Martin Maldonado from the Angels.

The Brewers traded for reliever Joakin Soria. The White Sox receive two pitching prospects.

The Yankees get J.A. Happ from the Blue Jays. The Yankees send Brandon Drury and a minor leaguer to Toronto.

Everyone is reporting Cole Hamel going from the Rangers to the Cubs.

I’m impressed with all the divisional trades going on. You usually don’t see division opponents trading with each other that often.

July 27, 2018

There Goes the Judge

Aaron Judge will miss at least a month with a fractured wrist:

The Yankees picked up J.A. Happ to help with their postseason push on Thursday. Hours later, they lost Aaron Judge with a chip fracture of the right wrist and they will likely be without their right fielder for at least a month.

Judge was drilled in the right wrist by a 93 mph fastball from Jakob Junis in the first inning of a 7-2 win over the Royals at The Stadium.

Surgery has not been recommended, according to the Yankees, but Judge won’t be able to swing a bat in a game situation for “approximately” three weeks.

Judge hits for average, does a great job getting on base, and slugs a few extra-base hits as well. The Yankees have enough offense to survive without him, it just gives them a little less leeway for others to to go into slumps. Wrist injuries seem to take a long recovery time. Even after healing, it takes time for a player to get back into the swing.

The Yankees fans paid Judge a tribute during the game.

July 27, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.352 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jason Vargas.
0.332 — Starling Marte batting against Jason Vargas.
0.328 — David Peralta batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.326 — Jose Altuve batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.320 — A.J. Pollock batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.318 — Scooter Gennett batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.316 — Austin Meadows batting against Jason Vargas.
0.314 — Albert Almora batting against Luke Weaver.
0.312 — Elias Diaz batting against Jason Vargas.
0.306 — Jon Jay batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.306 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Ivan Nova.
0.304 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.299 — David Freese batting against Jason Vargas.
0.299 — Josh Harrison batting against Jason Vargas.
0.299 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.299 — Jose Peraza batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.295 — Matt M Duffy batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.295 — Javier Baez batting against Luke Weaver.
0.294 — Michael Brantley batting against Michael Fiers.
0.292 — Wilmer Flores batting against Ivan Nova.
0.292 — Jordy Mercer batting against Jason Vargas.
0.291 — Colin Moran batting against Jason Vargas.
0.290 — Josh Bell batting against Jason Vargas.
0.286 — Avisail Garcia batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.284 — Eugenio Suarez batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.284 — Jesse Winker batting against Nick Pivetta.

Marte owns the longest streak in the majors right now, but was hit on the hand by a pitch on Wednesday. He did not play Thursday night.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.326, 0.757 — Jose Altuve batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.352, 0.750 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jason Vargas.
0.314, 0.742 — Albert Almora batting against Luke Weaver.
0.318, 0.735 — Scooter Gennett batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.332, 0.733 — Starling Marte batting against Jason Vargas.
0.328, 0.729 — David Peralta batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.280, 0.725 — Jean Segura batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.304, 0.724 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.294, 0.718 — Michael Brantley batting against Michael Fiers.
0.320, 0.715 — A.J. Pollock batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.295, 0.712 — Matt M Duffy batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.295, 0.712 — Javier Baez batting against Luke Weaver.
0.274, 0.711 — J.D. Martinez batting against Lance Lynn.
0.299, 0.711 — Jose Peraza batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.286, 0.710 — Avisail Garcia batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.306, 0.708 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Ivan Nova.
0.282, 0.707 — Jose Ramirez batting against Michael Fiers.
0.274, 0.706 — Mookie Betts batting against Lance Lynn.
0.306, 0.703 — Jon Jay batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.280, 0.702 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.316, 0.701 — Austin Meadows batting against Jason Vargas.
0.251, 0.699 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Sean Manaea.
0.261, 0.698 — Dee Gordon batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.256, 0.697 — Daniel Murphy batting against Pablo Lopez.
0.312, 0.696 — Elias Diaz batting against Jason Vargas.

Dickerson is the consensus first choice, Altuve the consensus second choice. Altuve may also be injured, however.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

July 27, 2018

Best Batter Today

The top four batters remain the same today in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Mike Trout, Alex Bregman, Matt Carpenter, and Jose Ramirez are separated by just nine points. A big game by any one of them might push them to the top. The fifth slot is now occupied by Christian Yelich, who missed the cycle by a triple against the Giants Thursday night as the Brewers win 7-5.

July 27, 2018

Friday Update

The Day By Day Database is up to date.

July 26, 2018

Insect Night

I am at an Atlantic League game between the Skeeters and the Bees. Looks like trades are coming fast and furious.

July 26, 2018

Games of the Day

The Twins fly into Fenway as Kyle Gibson battles Brian Johnson. The Twins won three in a row and gained on the Indians as 7 1/2 games separate the teams. That’s close enough to be in the race, but large enough to require a collapse by the Tribe. If the Red Sox play .500 ball the rest of the way, they win 100 games.

The Dodgers continue their swing against the NL East leaders as Rich Hill face Anibal Sanchez and the Braves. Hill pitched better on the road with season, with only four of his 11 home runs allowed coming away. Sanchez owns a 1.99 ERA at home, thanks to allowing just three of his nine home runs in Atlanta.

Finally, the Brewers send Wade Miley against the Giants and Dereck Rodriguez. Miley makes his fifth start of the season. He owns a 1.56 ERA, and has yet to allow a home run in 17 1/3 innings pitched. His walks and strikeouts are even at 11, however, which is not a good sign. The rookie Rodriguez isn’t overpowering, but makes up for a lower K rate with just 13 walks and three home runs allowed in 53 innings.

Enjoy!

July 26, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.331 — Matt M Duffy batting against Alex Cobb.
0.312 — Eddie Rosario batting against Brian Johnson.
0.306 — Joey Wendle batting against Alex Cobb.
0.303 — Corey Dickerson batting against Steven Matz.
0.302 — Mallex Smith batting against Alex Cobb.
0.301 — Albert Almora batting against Zachary Godley.
0.293 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Dylan Covey.
0.292 — Jed Lowrie batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.291 — Adeiny Hechavarria batting against Alex Cobb.
0.286 — Starling Marte batting against Steven Matz.
0.283 — Miguel Andujar batting against Jakob Junis.
0.281 — Scooter Gennett batting against Ranger Suarez.
0.281 — C.J. Cron batting against Alex Cobb.
0.280 — Javier Baez batting against Zachary Godley.
0.279 — Stephen Piscotty batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.278 — Mookie Betts batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.277 — Odubel Herrera batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.277 — J.D. Martinez batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.276 — Joe Mauer batting against Brian Johnson.
0.274 — Chad Pinder batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.273 — Whit Merrifield batting against Sonny Gray.
0.272 — Adam Moore batting against Alex Cobb.
0.272 — Matt Kemp batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.271 — Jonathan Lucroy batting against Bartolo Colon.

Looks like a good day for the Rays against their old teammate.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.331, 0.736 — Matt M Duffy batting against Alex Cobb.
0.301, 0.734 — Albert Almora batting against Zachary Godley.
0.312, 0.733 — Eddie Rosario batting against Brian Johnson.
0.303, 0.729 — Corey Dickerson batting against Steven Matz.
0.277, 0.718 — J.D. Martinez batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.278, 0.716 — Mookie Betts batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.281, 0.712 — Scooter Gennett batting against Ranger Suarez.
0.293, 0.710 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Dylan Covey.
0.286, 0.710 — Starling Marte batting against Steven Matz.
0.272, 0.709 — Matt Kemp batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.306, 0.701 — Joey Wendle batting against Alex Cobb.
0.280, 0.700 — Javier Baez batting against Zachary Godley.
0.283, 0.698 — Miguel Andujar batting against Jakob Junis.
0.302, 0.696 — Mallex Smith batting against Alex Cobb.
0.270, 0.694 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Stephen Strasburg.
0.265, 0.694 — Avisail Garcia batting against Nicholas Tropeano.
0.292, 0.694 — Jed Lowrie batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.273, 0.694 — Whit Merrifield batting against Sonny Gray.
0.261, 0.692 — Manny Machado batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.266, 0.691 — Freddie Freeman batting against Rich Hill.
0.266, 0.690 — Christian Yelich batting against Dereck Rodriguez.
0.277, 0.689 — Odubel Herrera batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.246, 0.688 — Daniel Murphy batting against Daniel Straily.
0.263, 0.686 — Starlin Castro batting against Stephen Strasburg.

Duffy is the unanimous first pick with Rosario the consensus second pick. Duffy should be a good streak extending player as he collects a lot of hits without drawing a lot of walks.

Note that both a Hunter and a Ranger are scheduled to start games today.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

July 26, 2018

Best Batter Today

Mike Trout rockets back to the top of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings as he goes three for four with a double and two home runs in the Angels 11-3 drubbing of the White Sox. That raises Trout’s slugging percentage to .621 for the season. Alex Bregman, Matt Carpenter, Jose Ramirez, and the idle Mookie Betts round out the top five.

Christian Yelich now ranks sixth on the list, and Giancarlo Stanton is tenth. Given that the NL East turned out to be competitive, the Marlins might have been in the race if they kept both those players.

July 26, 2018

Thursday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.

July 25, 2018

Rays Keep Dealing

The Rays made their second pitching trade of the day:

The Arizona Diamondbacks have acquired right-hander Matt Andriese from the Tampa Bay Rays for minor league catcher Michael Perez and minor league righty Brian Shaffer.

Andriese went 3-4 with a 4.07 ERA in 23 relief appearances and four starts for the Rays this year. He has gone at least two innings 16 times and three or more innings five times in his 23 relief appearances.

The Diamondbacks still have a few years of control of Andriese.

Perez might get on base well for a catcher, as his OBP appears to improve as he moved up the ranks. Shaffer is the better prospect, as he is just seasonal age 21 and is blowing away batters in the low minors.

July 25, 2018

Rays Flip a Pitcher

The Rays show the rest of the league how to make a deal:

The Boston Red Sox enhanced their thin starting rotation for a playoff run, obtaining right-hander Nathan Eovaldi from the Tampa Bay Rays in a trade for minor league lefty Jalen Beeks.

Eovaldi had been scheduled to start the Rays’ game against the New York Yankees on Wednesday but was scratched about two hours before game time.

“I assumed there was a possibility, of course, especially where I am in my career and the way my contract was for this year,” Eovaldi said before leaving Tropicana Field. “I was assuming that I would be traded, but as for what team it would be, I wasn’t thinking about that at all.”

Eovaldi can become a free agent after this season.

They Rays signed Eovaldi cheap, he pitched well, and now they have a young pitcher who performed well at AAA, especially in terms of three-true outcomes. The Red Sox get a great control pitcher, as Eovaldi walked just eight batters in 57 innings.

July 25, 2018

A Restivus for the Cespedes

1 Reply

Yoenis Cespedes‘s heels led to season-ending surgery:

He will undergo two heel surgeries, the team announced Wednesday. Cespedes is expected to miss eight to 10 months as he recovers, although there is a possibility his rehab time will be longer.

Assistant general manager John Ricco also revealed Cespedes will undergo the first surgery and then two to three months later, he will have the second to allow time to partially recover from the first. Ricco also said the Mets have an insurance policy on Cespedes’ contract, but the team has not had the chance to revise it’s baseball operations yet.

So with his injuries that occurred already, the Mets could lose a year and a half of Cespedes’s four year contract.

July 25, 2018

Games of the Day

The Dodgers finish what so far has been an exciting series against the Phillies with Walker Buehler facing Jake Arrieta. Buehler turns 24 Saturday, and in his first full MLB season is showing mastery of the three-true outcomes. Veteran Arrieta keeps batters in check overall, but gives up both hits and power with runners in scoring position.

The Pirates go for their twelfth win in a row as they are now just six games out of first place in the NL Central, and three games back of the second wild card slot. Jameson Taillon faces Trevor Bauer and the Indians. Taillon’s ERA seems higher than expected. He holds batters to a low BA with runners in scoring position, but gets crushed for power with just a man on first. Opposition batters have 10 RBI in that situation on nine extra base hits. Bauer is 4-1 at home with a 2.23 ERA.

Enjoy!

July 25, 2018

The Robot Umpire

Roger Cheng uses deep learning methods to build a robot umpire, one that can watch video and call balls and strikes. It doesn’t do that well in just trying to learn how umpires call balls and strikes, but it’s a start in the right direction.

This project was borne of interest in an area of research I found lacking. I couldn’t find any published articles on this topic, so I decided to give it a try myself. The results suggest both that Deep Learning could call a strike zone, and that the results would benefit greatly from better quality videos and equipment. There have been some very good articles published which successfully used PITCHf/x or Trackman data to build a robot umpire (such as this article which chronicles using a robot umpire in an independent league game).

The results of those studies suggest that method is farther along. It would be interesting to see if a Deep Learning system with more videos, better videos, and better computing infrastructure could equal or perhaps outperform the performance of those systems. In the meantime, this method offers another possible means by which strike zone calls could be improved. I look forward to fine-tuning this method in the months to come.

Very nice work.

July 25, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.344 — Jose Altuve batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.324 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.320 — Jed Lowrie batting against Martin Perez.
0.314 — Jean Segura batting against Derek Holland.
0.304 — Stephen Piscotty batting against Martin Perez.
0.300 — Chad Pinder batting against Martin Perez.
0.300 — Buster Posey batting against Mike Leake.
0.297 — Jose Martinez batting against Sal Romano.
0.297 — Nick S Martini batting against Martin Perez.
0.297 — Jonathan Lucroy batting against Martin Perez.
0.294 — Marcus Semien batting against Martin Perez.
0.293 — Dee Gordon batting against Derek Holland.
0.293 — Michael Brantley batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.292 — Matt Chapman batting against Martin Perez.
0.291 — Mark Canha batting against Martin Perez.
0.290 — Khristopher Davis batting against Martin Perez.
0.290 — Brandon Crawford batting against Mike Leake.
0.289 — Eddie Rosario batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.289 — Dustin Fowler batting against Martin Perez.
0.288 — Mookie Betts batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.287 — Gorkys Hernandez batting against Mike Leake.
0.286 — J.D. Martinez batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.286 — Alex Bregman batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.285 — Josh Reddick batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.285 — Yadier Molina batting against Sal Romano.
0.285 — Matt Kemp batting against Jake Arrieta.

Everybody on the Athletics gets a hit against Martin Perez! Lowrie and Davis certainly hit well against him. The Astros against Gray look like a good bet, too.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.344, 0.770 — Jose Altuve batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.314, 0.744 — Jean Segura batting against Derek Holland.
0.324, 0.741 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.283, 0.720 — Albert Almora batting against Robbie Ray.
0.293, 0.718 — Dee Gordon batting against Derek Holland.
0.286, 0.718 — J.D. Martinez batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.293, 0.718 — Michael Brantley batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.289, 0.718 — Eddie Rosario batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.288, 0.715 — Mookie Betts batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.297, 0.715 — Jose Martinez batting against Sal Romano.
0.283, 0.709 — Jose Ramirez batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.300, 0.709 — Buster Posey batting against Mike Leake.
0.285, 0.708 — Matt Kemp batting against Jake Arrieta.
0.320, 0.706 — Jed Lowrie batting against Martin Perez.
0.265, 0.705 — Corey Dickerson batting against Trevor Bauer.
0.273, 0.698 — Nick Castellanos batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.285, 0.698 — Yadier Molina batting against Sal Romano.
0.265, 0.697 — Matt M Duffy batting against Luis Cessa.
0.281, 0.696 — Christian Yelich batting against Tanner Roark.
0.267, 0.696 — Avisail Garcia batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.285, 0.695 — Josh Reddick batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.254, 0.694 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jack Flaherty.
0.273, 0.692 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Tanner Roark.
0.279, 0.691 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Sal Romano.
0.277, 0.690 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Clayton Richard.

Altuve is the unanimous first pick, with Yuli Gurriel the consensus second choice.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

July 25, 2018

Best Batter Today

Alex Bregman regains the top spot in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He collected a double, a home run, and a walk in Houston’s 6-2, ten inning win against Colorado Tuesday night. Matt Carpenter went 0 for 5 with a walk to drop into second place. Jose Ramirez, Mike Trout, and Mookie Betts round out the top five once again. Those three are separated by just four points.

Starling Marte, with a 17-game hit streak, now ranks 20th.

July 25, 2018

Wednesday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.

July 24, 2018

Who Are the Brittons?

1 Reply

It’s being widely reported that the Yankees and Orioles have a deal for Orioles closer Zach Britton:

Right-handers Dillon Tate, who is the Yankees’ No. 9-ranked prospect, and Cody Carroll, who’s ranked No. 15, and Triple-A left-hander Josh Rogers are in the package for Britton, according to sources.

The Orioles were still reviewing medical records, a source told MLB.com’s Brittany Ghiroli, so it’s unlikely a deal will be announced on Tuesday night. The Yankees will pick up the remainder of Britton’s salary, which is about $5 million for the rest of 2018, and no international pool money was involved in the deal, a source tells MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand.

In the meantime we wait and see. I just want to remind everyone that strange women, lying ponds, distributing swords, is no basis for building a bullpen.