Monthly Archives: July 2018

July 31, 2018

Murphy Finally Healed

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Daniel Murphy appears to finally be better after his off-season surgery. He is back to being a Mets killer with three hits so far Tuesday night, two of them home runs. He scored three times and drove in six. And that’s with just three innings played! The Nationals lead the Mets 13-0.

Maybe the Nationals not trading away any of their stars sent the right message today.

Update: The Nationals win 25-4. Murphy is pulled after his fourth plate appearance, as are Rendon and Harper. Ryan Zimmerman goes 2 for 5 and sets the Expos/Nationals record for career hits. The Nationals collect 26 hits, 12 for extra bases.

The Mets game into the game with the lowest closeness score average in the majors at 1.99, and Washington was not far behind at 2.11. I suspect this game will blow both of those out of the water.

July 31, 2018

Going for the Elusive Championship

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I’m very glad to see that the Brewers, Pirates, Braves, and Mariners were so active at the trade deadline. The Brewers and Mariners never won a World Series, and the Pirates and Braves have not won in a long time. (Yes, it’s been over 20 years since the Braves won the World Series.)

The Brewers get Johnathan Schoop and his power. Schoop uses a lot of outs to deliver his punch, but he’ll be be better than the production Milwaukee received from their middle infielders this season. The Orioles also sent Kevin Guasman and Darren O’Day to Atlanta, providing more depth to that pitching staff. The Orioles have done a nice job of restocking their farm system.

The Pirates land Chris Archer. I’m hoping that the fine coaching staff in Pittsburgh can return Archer to his 2015 form. His three-true outcomes remained good in that time period, but it seems he gives up way too many hits for his strikeout rate. The Rays get two players not yet in their prime who were touted as top prospects at one point. In addition, the Rays acquired Tommy Pham and traded Wilson Ramos to the Phillies, so it’s tough to tell if Tampa Bay were buyers or sellers in these deals.

I think Pirates fans owe Pirates ownership a bit of an apology. They would have had a better team with Gerrit Cole, but I’m not sure they would have had a better team with Andrew McCutchen. This group proved they could win, and ownership went out and improved for this stretch run. Maybe the front office and coaching staff in Pittsburgh knows what they are doing.

The Mariners picked up the well traveled outfielder Cameron Maybin from the Marlins, which gives them outfield depth. The Indians did the same in getting Leonys Martin from the Tigers.

The Nationals, a team that also never appeared in the World Series, dumped a reliever. It might have been a clubhouse move:

There were some other deals today, but all in all it was a good trading season. A number of teams are all in on trying to win this year. Prospects were redistributed to weaker teams. The Yankees cleared some of their relief talent for international signing money.

July 31, 2018

Games of the Day

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The Pirates are one of those teams that are not quite in the race but not quite out of the race in the NL Central as they host the Cubs. Pittsburgh is seven games behind Chicago in the NL Central and 3 1/2 games being the Diamondbacks for the 2nd NL Wild Card. Jon Lester takes on Jameson Taillon. Lester is 7-4 against the Pirates in 14 starts since joining the Cubs. He has allowed 11 home runs in 81 2/3 innings. Taillon faces the Cubs for the first time.

The Twins try to gain another game on the Indians as Cleveland sends Trevor Bauer against Kyle Gibson. Bauer struck out 192 batters this season in 147 1/3 innings after striking out 198 last season in 176 1/3 innings. Gibson owns a 5.21 ERA against the Indians for his career.

Finally, Wade Miley leads Milwaukee against the Dodgers and Walker Buehler. Miley owns a 2.01 ERA this season despite 13 walks and just 12 K in 22 1/3 innings. Buehler walked 14 in 62 innings. They should trade first names, as Walker would be more appropriate for Miley. At least they would not need to change their monograms. 🙂

July 31, 2018 July 31, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

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Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.332 — Nick Castellanos batting against Homer Bailey.
0.313 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Mike Leake.
0.308 — Jose Iglesias batting against Homer Bailey.
0.308 — David Peralta batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.306 — John Hicks batting against Homer Bailey.
0.304 — A.J. Pollock batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.304 — Albert Almora batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.299 — Jose Martinez batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.297 — Jon Jay batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.295 — Yadier Molina batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.291 — Eduardo Escobar batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.290 — Victor Martinez batting against Homer Bailey.
0.289 — Javier Baez batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.287 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.286 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jake Arrieta.
0.286 — Buster Posey batting against Clayton Richard.
0.284 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.283 — Odubel Herrera batting against Drew Pomeranz.
0.283 — Mookie Betts batting against Jake Arrieta.
0.281 — Yairo Munoz batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.281 — Victor Reyes batting against Homer Bailey.
0.280 — Leonys Martin batting against Homer Bailey.
0.279 — James Adduci batting against Homer Bailey.
0.278 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Drew Pomeranz.
0.278 — Alex Bregman batting against Mike Leake.

Bailey pitched poorly this season, but came back after missing two months with a pretty good start his last time out. Still, it may be a good day for the Tigers.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.304, 0.734 — Albert Almora batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.332, 0.733 — Nick Castellanos batting against Homer Bailey.
0.313, 0.729 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Mike Leake.
0.286, 0.718 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jake Arrieta.
0.308, 0.717 — David Peralta batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.276, 0.714 — Daniel Murphy batting against Steven Matz.
0.299, 0.714 — Jose Martinez batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.289, 0.711 — Javier Baez batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.271, 0.711 — Scooter Gennett batting against Matt Boyd.
0.273, 0.709 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jon Lester.
0.304, 0.709 — A.J. Pollock batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.283, 0.708 — Mookie Betts batting against Jake Arrieta.
0.286, 0.707 — Buster Posey batting against Clayton Richard.
0.295, 0.706 — Yadier Molina batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.276, 0.706 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Kolby Allard.
0.274, 0.704 — Avisail Garcia batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.297, 0.703 — Jon Jay batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.275, 0.702 — Wilson Ramos batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.263, 0.701 — Michael Brantley batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.308, 0.701 — Jose Iglesias batting against Homer Bailey.
0.241, 0.700 — Jean Segura batting against Charlie Morton.
0.276, 0.699 — Matt Kemp batting against Wade Miley.
0.276, 0.699 — Christian Yelich batting against Walker Buehler.
0.287, 0.698 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.306, 0.698 — John Hicks batting against Homer Bailey.
0.273, 0.698 — Matt M Duffy batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.274, 0.698 — Adrian Beltre batting against Zachary Godley.
0.276, 0.698 — Manny Machado batting against Wade Miley.

Almora pops to the top of the list, but he almost never plays when the NN says he’s most likely to get a hit. Castellanos and Yuli Gurriel are the consensus 1-2 picks.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

July 31, 2018

Best Batter Today

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The idle Mike Trout remains atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Matt Carpenter, Christian Yelich, and Alex Bregman rank 2-3-4, separated by less than 0.6 points. Carpenter and Bregman trade slots, Carpenter collecting three singles in the 5-4 Cardinals win over the Rockies, while Bregman went 1 for 4 in the 2-0 Houston loss to Seattle. Jose Ramirez, despite two home runs to tie for the MLB lead, remains fifth in the rankings.

July 31, 2018 July 30, 2018

Ticket Innovation

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The Oakland Athletics are doing away with the traditional season ticket package:

The Oakland Athletics are doing away with traditional season-ticket plans for next season in favor of a membership program that will let fans to buy general admission tickets, reserve seats and also receive special perks.

The change in approach is geared to offer fans both the ability to buy ticket packages similar to the way they usually would or have more flexible options.

“A’s Access” memberships, which the team calls the first of their kind, will go on sale Friday and include benefits such as half-price concessions, a 25-percent merchandise discount and parking.

Some of the higher end car makers are doing this, where drivers subscribe to cars, rather than own one. It allows them to change the car they are driving based on their needs.

July 30, 2018

Tommy Johnny Cueto?

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It appears the Giants are losing a starter

:

Giants starter Johnny Cueto, who was supposed to combine with Madison Bumgarner as one of the best one-two rotation punches in baseball, appears headed for Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery, which would end his season and keep him out for most of 2019 as well.

“There has not been something determined yet, but it’s fair to say there’s a strong possibility of having surgery,” manager Bruce Bochy said Monday before the Giants’ game against the Padres at Petco Park.

Cueto, signed to a six-year, $130 million contract before the 2016 season, went on the disabled list in late April with a partially torn ulnar-collateral ligament, the injury that requires Tommy John reconstruction, but attempted to rehabilitate the arm without the operation.

Cueto is 32 years old, so there is a real possiblity he never returns from this operation.

July 30, 2018

Just Say No

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The Mariners want taxpayers to fund renovations to SafeCo Field if they sign a 25-year-lease to play in the stadium:

But critics have argued that the tax doesn’t require the county to allocate all funds towards tourism and promotion. They could, instead, put that money towards affordable housing.

“The Mariners are a billion dollar for-profit business that has generated enormous wealth for a small group of private owners,” Councilmember Dave Upthegrove, said in a statement. “This business can and should continue to pay for upkeep of the baseball stadium. This business is the sole tenant of the facility — which was already built for them largely with taxpayer funds.

“State law is absolutely clear that these funds can be spent on affordable housing, services for homeless youth, and actual tourism promotion that generates a greater economic benefit throughout King County.”

I suspect doing away with the hotel tax would do more to promote tourism than spending money to promote tourism. Just eliminate the tax, and let the Mariners figure out where else to play.

If the public funding is rejected, they won’t the Mariners won’t just leave overnight. Were the county to reject the funding plan, the team would sign a short-term lease extension of up to five years (instead of the 25-year lease extension) to ensure the team continues to play at Safeco while they figure out a different long-term lease solution.

Or if the city were smart, they would throw them out as tenants until they agree to something more lucrative for Seattle. Just say no to more public funding.

July 30, 2018

Lance Lynn, Trading Chip

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The Yankees acquired Lance Lynn from the Twins:

The Yankees have acquired right-hander Lance Lynn from the Twins for infielder/outfielder Tyler Austin and Class A right-hander Luis Rijo, a source tells MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand.

I don’t quite know what the Yankees see in Lynn, who pitched poorly this season and very poorly lately. Either someone on the Yankees thinks they can fix his problems, or he is an insurance policy against injuries. Rijo is just 19 with great three-true outcomes in the low minors.

July 30, 2018

Swapping Problems

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The Astros and Blue Jays made a trade for closers with problems:

Swapping a closer with on-field problems for one with off-field troubles, the World Series champion Houston Astros traded Ken Giles to the Toronto Blue Jays along with a pair of pitching prospects for Roberto Osuna on Monday.

Houston also sent right-handers David Paulino and Hector Perez to Toronto as part of the deal, a day before the deadline for trades without waivers.

The 23-year-old Osuna is eligible to pitch in the big leagues starting Sunday after a 75-game suspension under Major League Baseball’s domestic violence policy. He has made six scoreless one-inning appearances in the minors since July 14, the last three at Triple-A.

In Giles last 14 2/3 innings pitched, he walked three and struck out 18, but allowed 21 hits. The three true outcomes are there, and maybe a change of scenery can help him.

July 30, 2018

Hitting and Scoring

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Yesterday some thoughts about hit streak and the Beat the Streak game led to some research on what percentage of starts do position players get hits. Looking at data from 1969 on (lower mound, division play), the query calculated the percent of time non-pitcher, starting player earned at least one hit in a game. The data shows that 2018 is the second least likely season for a starting batter to get a hit in a game. In 1972, the probability was just 0.63. This season, it’s 0.6356. The big difference between the two was that in 1972, the league averaged 3.69 runs per team game, while in 2018, teams are averaging 4.45 runs per game. This season is a fairly extreme outlier. The regression equation, 23.7 * P(H) – 11.1 has an r-squared of .79. You can see the data here. I suspect there are a lot more walks this season and a lot more home runs. Players have needed to find other ways to score because a lot of players are taking the collar.

July 30, 2018

Games of the Day

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First place teams collide in Boston as the Phillies send Aaron Nola against David Price. Nola comes into the game third in the NL in ERA at 2.42. He’s having a great July, with a 2.16 ERA, one home run, six walks, and 29 K in 25 innings. Price is 2-1 in July despite a 6.43 ERA. He allowed eight home runs in 21 innings during the month.

First place Houston faces off against second place Seattle as Gerrit Cole takes on James Paxton. Cole has fallen in Tom Tango Cy Young Tracker points, ranking fourth. His ERA is up in his last eight starts, mostly due to a high walk rate. Paxton pitches for the first time since 7/12, his back putting him on the disabled list. He is 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA against the Astros this season.

Finally, the Brewers visit the Dodgers with Freddy Peralta facing Kenta Maeda. In his rookie year, Peralta is proving tough to hit. His 57 K in 43 1/3 innings helped him allow just 22 hits. That balances the 22 walks he issued. Maeda continues to pitch better at home with a 2.74 ERA in Los Angeles, 3.78 on the road.

Enjoy!

July 30, 2018

Weekly Look at Offense

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For the fourth week in a row, MLB offense came in at over nine runs per game. Through 17 weeks, 2018 is still running behind 2018, but the gap narrowed a bit. The 2018 season is producing 8.90 runs per game, compared to 9.33 runs per game through 17 weeks of the 2017 season. (All comparisons are through 17 weeks.) One piece of good news is that strikeouts are coming down. In April games were seeing 17.5 K per game, in July 16.6 K per game. We may in fact be seeing the adjustment people want, with more batters trying to put the ball in play. I even saw Bryce Harper get an infield hit yesterday by taking an easy swing on a two strike pitch and grounding the ball to where the shortstop should be. By the time the third baseman got to the ball, Harper was safe. I’ve even seen two hit and runs this week.

That said, all hits are still down 0.5 per game compared to last season. It’s good to see that some adjustments are happening.

July 30, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

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Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.338 — David Peralta batting against Martin Perez.
0.336 — A.J. Pollock batting against Martin Perez.
0.331 — Eddie Rosario batting against Shane Bieber.
0.324 — Jon Jay batting against Martin Perez.
0.320 — Buster Posey batting against Eric Lauer.
0.319 — Eduardo Escobar batting against Martin Perez.
0.315 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Martin Perez.
0.310 — Nick Markakis batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.309 — Freddie Freeman batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.306 — Brandon Crawford batting against Eric Lauer.
0.303 — Alen Hanson batting against Eric Lauer.
0.303 — Ozzie Albies batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.299 — Gorkys Hernandez batting against Eric Lauer.
0.296 — Ketel Marte batting against Martin Perez.
0.296 — Joe Mauer batting against Shane Bieber.
0.293 — Nick Hundley batting against Eric Lauer.
0.292 — Evan Longoria batting against Eric Lauer.
0.290 — Nick Ahmed batting against Martin Perez.
0.289 — Charlie Culberson batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.288 — Austin Slater batting against Eric Lauer.
0.288 — Brandon Belt batting against Eric Lauer.
0.286 — Steven Duggar batting against Eric Lauer.
0.284 — Steven Souza batting against Martin Perez.
0.284 — Jake Cave batting against Shane Bieber.
0.284 — Jorge Polanco batting against Shane Bieber.

It should be a good day for the Diamondbacks hitters. Even Nick Ahmed makes the list!

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.331, 0.739 — Eddie Rosario batting against Shane Bieber.
0.338, 0.730 — David Peralta batting against Martin Perez.
0.336, 0.723 — A.J. Pollock batting against Martin Perez.
0.320, 0.722 — Buster Posey batting against Eric Lauer.
0.309, 0.721 — Freddie Freeman batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.310, 0.716 — Nick Markakis batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.324, 0.714 — Jon Jay batting against Martin Perez.
0.303, 0.713 — Ozzie Albies batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.264, 0.710 — J.D. Martinez batting against Aaron Nola.
0.247, 0.710 — Jean Segura batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.274, 0.704 — Michael Brantley batting against Ervin Santana.
0.262, 0.702 — Mookie Betts batting against Aaron Nola.
0.315, 0.701 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Martin Perez.
0.319, 0.701 — Eduardo Escobar batting against Martin Perez.
0.261, 0.700 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Carlos Martinez.
0.268, 0.698 — Jose Martinez batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.306, 0.697 — Brandon Crawford batting against Eric Lauer.
0.268, 0.695 — Christian Yelich batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.296, 0.694 — Joe Mauer batting against Shane Bieber.
0.267, 0.693 — Yadier Molina batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.237, 0.693 — Dee Gordon batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.252, 0.691 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against James Paxton.
0.245, 0.690 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Julio Teheran.
0.257, 0.689 — Nolan Arenado batting against Carlos Martinez.
0.299, 0.687 — Gorkys Hernandez batting against Eric Lauer.
0.268, 0.687 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.289, 0.687 — Charlie Culberson batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.256, 0.687 — Adrian Beltre batting against Robbie Ray.
0.303, 0.687 — Alen Hanson batting against Eric Lauer.

David Peralta is the consensus first choice, Rosario second choice. It might, however, be a good day to double down on Peralta and Pollock.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

July 30, 2018 July 30, 2018 July 29, 2018 July 29, 2018 July 29, 2018

Newcomb in the Ninth

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Sean Newcomb takes the mound for the Braves in the ninth inning with a 4-0 lead over the Dodgers and three outs away from a no-hitter. He is scheduled to face Logan Forsythe, Cody Bellinger, and Chris Taylor. He has thrown 117 pitches, a career high for him, 70 for strikes.

Update: Forsythe flies out to left for the first out.

Update: Bellinger falls behind 1-2. He fouls off three 2-2 pitches in a row, works the count full, then pops out to right for the second out.

Update: Taylor falls behind 1-2, Newcomb getting a high call and a foul ball high. Taylor then hits a hard grounder past the third baseman for the first hit of the game. That’s it for Newcomb, but it was an outstanding outing.

Update: The Dodgers get a second hit, but the Braves win 4-1. The gain on the Phillies and extend their lead on the Nationals, as both those teams were shutout on Sunday.

July 29, 2018

Newcomb Nuking ‘Em

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Sean Newcomb just completed seven no-hit inning against the Dodgers. He walked one and struck out seven so far as the Braves lead 4-0. He’s thrown 100 pitches, 58 for strikes, so he hasn’t exactly been in great control. The Dodgers just can’t hit what he’s offering.

Update: Two ground outs and a strikeout, and Sean Newcomb will take no-hitter into the ninth inning.

July 29, 2018

Catching On

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Brett Phillips, making his Royals debut, just robbed Austin Romine of a three-run homer. The slow motion replay of the catch is fun, as Phillips seems to be screaming as he jumps, and closes his eyes as the ball goes into his glove. A great catch, but not text book. 🙂

The Yankees lead the Royals 3-0 in the top of the fifth inning.

July 29, 2018

Games of the Day

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The Dodgers and Braves continue to post outstanding pitching match-ups as Ross Stripling takes on Sean Newcomb as Los Angeles goes for a four-game sweep. All the decisions Stripling earned came as a starter. In that role he owns a 2.76 ERA. Out of the pen it was 0.59 in 15 1/3 innings. His only weakness is the 13 home runs he allowed in 100 total innings. Newcomb pitched about the same as he did last season in terms of three-true outcomes, but his ERA is about a 0.9 runs lower. His BABIP dropped from .327 to .253, which could be luck or great fielding. He is allowing fewer line drives, which may indicate he’s fooling batters enough to avoid solid contact.

Toronto sends Ryan Borucki against the White Sox and Carlos Rodon. Both are bright spots in otherwise disappointing seasons for the teams. Borucki has not allowed a home run in his first five major league starts, covering 29 1/3 innings. Rodon owns a 1.77 ERA at home thanks to just five walks in 20 1/3 innings. He walked 15 batters in 30 1/3 road innings.

Seattle tries to halt their skid with Marco Gonzales facing the Angels and Felix Pena. Gonzales came into his own at seasonal age 26, striking out 104 and walking just 23 in 119 2/3 innings. Pena blossomed as a starter, with a 2.73 ERA in his six starts this season. He struck out 32 in 29 2/3 innings in that role.

Enjoy!

July 29, 2018

Hall of Fame Day

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Cooperstown becomes the focus of the baseball world this afternoon at 1:30 PM EDT as the 2018 class receives their plaques and makes their speeches. There are a large number of inductees, as the writers voted in four players. Vald Guerrero, Trevor Hoffman, Chipper Jones, and Jim Thome receive the highest honor the baseball writers bestow. Jack Morris and teammate Alan Trammell won the nod of the veterans committee, honoring the great Tigers teams of the 1980s. Sheldon Ocker takes the J.G. Taylor Spink Award (writing) and Bob Costas receives the Ford C. Frick Award (broadcasting).

There are arguments about a few of the inductees, especially Morris, Trammell, and Hoffman. This is not the day for that, however. All these players brought a great deal of joy to baseball fans, and it’s a day to remember that. Congratulations to all!

July 29, 2018

Defensive Strategy

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Dave Martinez faced a bases loaded, no out situation in the bottom of the tenth, the Marlins J.T. Realmuto at the plate. Martinez brings Bryce Harper in to play at first base for a five man infield. Realmuto hits a fly ball down the rightfield line. Michael Taylor and Bryce Harper each almost reach it, but it falls for a hit. Given the way they were running, they would not have had a chance to throw out the runner from third, Magneuris Sierra, since he is very fast and neither would have time to stop and set for the throw.

If Harper had been at his normal position in rightfield, however, he likely would have caught the ball. He might have made the play close at home, as the ball hung in the air a long time, and Harper has a strong arm. It reminds me of this play from the 2001 World Series:

Joe Torre brought the infield in against Luis Gonzalez with one out instead of playing back for a potential double play. If Jeter is playing at his normal position, he catches that line drive and the Diamondbacks do not score on that batted ball. It is tough to fault the managers, they know their teams, they know their opponents, and they likely make the move that works out the best in the long run. It just looks bad when you make the right move and the batter doesn’t cooperate.

Harper noted after the game that Realmuto would not have been at the plate if the Nationals had traded for him.

July 29, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

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Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.309 — Michael Brantley batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.300 — Christian Yelich batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.296 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Frankie Montas.
0.295 — Nolan Arenado batting against Frankie Montas.
0.294 — Scooter Gennett batting against Zach Eflin.
0.292 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.291 — Jose Ramirez batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.290 — Freddie Freeman batting against Ross Stripling.
0.289 — Gerardo Parra batting against Frankie Montas.
0.288 — Avisail Garcia batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.288 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jose Urena.
0.288 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Frankie Montas.
0.287 — Nick Markakis batting against Ross Stripling.
0.286 — Francisco Lindor batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.286 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.286 — Jean Segura batting against Felix Pena.
0.285 — Erik Gonzalez batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.284 — Starling Marte batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.283 — Ozzie Albies batting against Ross Stripling.
0.283 — Adam C Eaton batting against Jose Urena.
0.281 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.281 — Leury Garcia batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.277 — Jose Peraza batting against Zach Eflin.
0.277 — Eddie Rosario batting against Nathan Eovaldi.

Brantley is three for eight career against Zimmermann. Jose Ramirez is 5 for 10.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.309, 0.733 — Michael Brantley batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.286, 0.726 — Jean Segura batting against Felix Pena.
0.296, 0.724 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Frankie Montas.
0.294, 0.723 — Scooter Gennett batting against Zach Eflin.
0.288, 0.720 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jose Urena.
0.295, 0.717 — Nolan Arenado batting against Frankie Montas.
0.300, 0.715 — Christian Yelich batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.288, 0.714 — Avisail Garcia batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.291, 0.714 — Jose Ramirez batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.277, 0.712 — Eddie Rosario batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.292, 0.711 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.289, 0.710 — Gerardo Parra batting against Frankie Montas.
0.281, 0.709 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.290, 0.709 — Freddie Freeman batting against Ross Stripling.
0.284, 0.705 — Starling Marte batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.270, 0.705 — Dee Gordon batting against Felix Pena.
0.256, 0.703 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jose Berrios.
0.275, 0.703 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Mike Minor.
0.286, 0.702 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.288, 0.702 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Frankie Montas.
0.287, 0.700 — Nick Markakis batting against Ross Stripling.
0.283, 0.700 — Ozzie Albies batting against Ross Stripling.
0.286, 0.700 — Francisco Lindor batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.277, 0.700 — Jose Peraza batting against Zach Eflin.

Jose Altuve had the highest probability, but he was placed on the 10-day disabled list overnight. So Brantley is the unanimous first choice, with Dickerson the unanimous second choice.

Update: I didn’t realize Dickerson was also on the disabled list. That make Blackmon the consensus second choice.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

July 29, 2018

Best Batter Today

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Christian Yelich moves up another spot in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Mike Trout stays on top as he homered in the Angels 11-5 win over Seattle. Alex Bregmen holds second place with a home run and a walk as the Astros fall to Texas 7-3. Yelich went two for five with a home run to move past Matt Carpenter. Jose Ramirez is now fifth, just 0.14 points ahead of Mookie Betts.

Yelich is on quite hot, owning the second longest hit at the moment, 12 games. In that time, he posted a .520/.547/.980 slash line with four home runs and 15 RBI.

As the season progresses, we see how these ratings work. Hitters like Trout and Ramirez, who are consistently good, pretty much stay in the top five. Players who go on incredible streaks, like Yelich and Carpenter, can work their way into the higher echelons if they also have a good base to build on.

July 29, 2018 July 28, 2018

Twins, Miles

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My thoughts go out to Miles Mikolas, whose new born twins are in the neonatal intensive care unit: