Tag Archives: Vladimir Guerrero

July 7, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

0.358 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Matt Harvey.
0.356 — Bo Bichette batting against Matt Harvey.
0.346 — Teoscar Hernandez batting against Matt Harvey.
0.341 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Matt Harvey.
0.331 — Randal Grichuk batting against Matt Harvey.
0.330 — Marcus Semien batting against Matt Harvey.
0.329 — Michael Brantley batting against Sean Manaea.
0.323 — Santiago Espinal batting against Matt Harvey.
0.320 — Jean Segura batting against Alec Mills.
0.318 — Trea Turner batting against Chris Paddack.

The Indians and Rays play a double header, as do the Brewers and Mets. Those are seven inning games so batters get fewer opportunities to record hits. Also, I only have one source for the starters in the Dodgers-Marlins game, so take those numbers with a grain of salt.

That said, the Log5 Method sees the Blue Jays at the Orioles as the place to find hits. Toronto plays a number of very good batters, and Matt Harvey allows quite a few hits.

Here are the NN picks:

0.329, 0.752 — Michael Brantley batting against Sean Manaea.
0.356, 0.749 — Bo Bichette batting against Matt Harvey.
0.358, 0.745 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Matt Harvey.
0.318, 0.736 — Trea Turner batting against Chris Paddack.
0.292, 0.730 — Tim Anderson batting against Michael Pineda.
0.341, 0.730 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Matt Harvey.
0.346, 0.730 — Teoscar Hernandez batting against Matt Harvey.
0.320, 0.725 — Jean Segura batting against Alec Mills.
0.316, 0.725 — David Fletcher batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.311, 0.723 — Jose Iglesias batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.306, 0.723 — Nick Castellanos batting against Brady Singer.

I’m not surprised to see Brantley pop to the top of the list. His short and long term hit average parameters stand at .313 and .294, meaning a good, long term hitter is hot. Bichette moves ahead of Guerrero on this list as his long-term parameter is .274 versus .263 for Guerrero. The two are tied for the consensus first pick. Brantley is two for fifteen against Manaea in his career with two strikeouts.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 7, 2021

Best Batter Today

Fernando Tatis Jr.of the Padres stays atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He posts a quiet one for five night in a 7-4 win over the Nationals. His teammate, Manny Machado, moves into third place as he goes three for four with two doubles.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays holds second place after a one for three night with a home run and a sacrifice fly. It’s not enough as Baltimore takes the game 7-5. Max Muncy of the Dodgers goes 0 for 3 with two walks to stay in the top five at fourth. Miami wins the game 2-1 in ten innings. Joey Gallo of the Rangers goes one for three with two walks for fifth place as the Rangers beat the Tigers 10-5.

Two hitters tie for best game score of the day. Bryce Harper of the Phillies goes five for six with a double and a home run in a 15-10 slugfest win over the Cubs. Yordan Alvarez of the Astros goes three for three with a walk and two home runs in Houston’s 9-6 win over the Athletics. Both were good for game scores of 86.

July 6, 2021

Best Batter Today

Washington’s 7-5 win over the Padres produced two top five players in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Fernando Tatis Jr.of the Padres homered in five trips to the plate to stay on top of the leaderboard. Trea Turner of the Nationals went two for four with a walk and a home run to move into the fifth slot. With Carlos Correa still fourth after a night off for Houston, three shortstops are among the best hitters in the game.

Sunday at a Shiva I ran into a friend of a friend, and we started talking baseball. He had not been to a game for a while, but recently went to a major league stadium. The thing that stood out to him was how much bigger the players looked than he remembered. When I was young, it was thought that tall players did not make good shortstops, as the height took away from defense. Ed Brinkman, who was six feet tall and a good shortstop moved the needle a little bit away from that, then Cal Ripken Jr. at six feet four inches blew that out of the water. Today, shortstops can be big, powerful, and good defensively. Tatis stands six feet three inches, Turner six feet two inches, and Correa six feet four inches.

Vladimir Guerrero remains second as the Blue Jays took the day off. Max Muncy of the Dodgers sits in third place as he did not start in a 5-4 Miami victory.

The best game score of the day goes to Ben Gamel of the Pirates, an 82. Gamel hit the Braves for a three for five night with a double and two home runs, driving in six. The Pirates take the game 11-1. Gamel is not having a great year overall, but his slugging picked up since joining the Pirates with an isolated power of .225.

July 5, 2021

Best Batter Today

The shakeups continue at the top of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Fernando Tatis Jr.of the Padres takes over the top spot going two for four with a double and a walk in an 11-1 win over the Phillies. His teammate, Manny Machado, jumps to fifth place as he posts a game score of 86, the highest of the day. Machado goes two for two, both home runs, draws a walk and is intentionally passed twice.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays drops to second place as he doubles in four trips to the plate in a 5-1 Rays win. Max Muncy of the Dodgers posts a two for five day, both doubles, in a 5-1 win over the Nationals, as the Dodgers sweep the series. Muncy stand third. Carlos Correa of the Astros rounds out the top five as he singles in five trips in a 4-3 win over the Indians.

July 4, 2021

Best Batter Today

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays stays atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He doubled in four trips as Toronto beats Tampa Bay 6-3. Toronto is now three games back in the Wild Card race. Fernando Tatis Jr.of the Padres stays in second place with a single in four trips as the Phillies take that game 4-2.

Carlos Correa jumps back into the top five with two walks, a single and a home run as he helps the Astros beat the Indians 3-2. Joey Gallo of the Rangers ranks fourth after a day off, and Max Muncy stands fifth as he draws a walk in five trips, helping the Dodgers beat the Nationals 5-3.

The best game score of the day goes to Eric Haase of the Tigers, who goes three for four with two home runs for a score of 82. The Tigers beat the White Sox 11-5. Haase is getting a chance to play regularly for the first time in his career and is slugging .563 with eleven home runs in 128 at bats.

July 3, 2021

Best Batter Today

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays tops the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings once again. He singles, walks, and homers in the 11-1 win over the Rays. His teammate, Marcus Semien, singles and doubles to hold the fifth slot.

Guerrero’s holds a 0.03 point lead over Fernando Tatis Jr.of the Padres. Tatis hit two doubles in a 4-3, extra inning Phillies win. In third place stands Bryan Reynolds of the Pirates. He continues to hit well as the Pirates lose, going two for four with a double and a home run in the 7-2 Brewers win. Milwaukee won ten in a row to give themselves a 7 1/2 game lead in the NL Central, the biggest gap for any division leader.

Fourth place goes to Joey Gallo of the Rangers, who saw his consecutive game home run streak end Friday night. Gallo did draw a walk in the 5-4, extra-inning win by the Mariners. Seattle is now five games over .500 and 3 1/2 games out of the wild card.

Two players tie for the best game score of the night, 76. Willy Adames of the Brewers goes three for three with a home run and a walk, while Shohei Ohtani of the Angels hits two home runs and draws a walk in five trips to the plate. Ohtani scored the winning run after the walk in the ninth inning. That gives Ohtani 30 home runs in 81 Angels games, and I calculate his probability of breaking Roger Maris’s AL single season home run record at about 1 in 1000. Ohtani now ranks 15th.

July 2, 2021

Best Batter Today

Once again, there’s a bit of a shakeup in the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Fernando Tatis Jr.of the Padres moved into the top slot with a one for four night in a 5-4 Reds win. Slipping to second is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays, 0 for 3 with a walk in a 7-2 Mariners win.

Joey Gallo of the Rangers jumps to third place going three for three with a home run and a walk in an 8-3 win over the Athletics. Gallo is on fire as he homered in five straight games. He may be the ultimate three-true outcome hitter, and this demonstrates how effective the combination of walks and home runs makes up for all the strikeouts. Gallo’s game score of 78 represents the best offensive game of the day.

Fourth place goes to Max Muncy of the Dodgers who homered in three trips in a rain shortened 6-2 victory over the Nationals. Marcus Semien of the Blue Jays moves back into the top five as he goes three for four with a double and his twentieth home run.

July 1, 2021

Players of the Month

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June 2021 presents a tough choice for offensive player of the month. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays led the majors with a .465 OBP while hitting .371 and slugging .753. Right on his heels is Nelson Cruz of the Twins with a .457 OBP, but a .380 BA and a .759 slugging percentage. Cruz played four fewer games however.

Shohei Ohtani of the Angles topped the slugging chart at an impressive .889. Twenty of his twenty five hits went for extra bases, including 13 home runs. Kyle Schwarber of the Nationals hit the most home runs in the month, 16, the second most ever in a june to finish second in slugging at .760. Note that the 16 home runs were Schwarber’s only EXBH in the month. Raimel Tapia, who led the majors in doubles with 15, also had no other extra-base hits. (Schwarber led the majors in RBI with 30, Tapia in runs with 26.)

Of all these great hitters, Guerrero did everything well and with more plate appearances than Cruz, so Vladimir Guerrero Jr.win the Baseball Musings Offensive Player of the Month for June 2021.

On the pitching side, Jacob deGrom of the Mets stands out with his 0.67 ERA, allowing just two runs in twenty seven innings covering five starts. He struck out 13.3 per nine IP, walked 1.3 per 9 IP, and did not allow a home run. Walker Buehler of the Dodgers deserves some consideration, however. Buehler posted a 1.85 ERA in six starts, pitching 39 innings. It’s a big easier to post a great ERA if one is not allowed to go deep in a game. Buehler went 5-1 in those starts, with good three-true outcome numbers. In many months, he would be the easy choice.

The prize, however, goes to Jacob deGrom, the Baseball Musings Pitcher of the Month for June 2021.

July 1, 2021

Best Batter Today

A wild Wednesday in the major leagues shakes up the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Fernando Tatis Jr.of the Padres goes two for three with his twenty sixth home run in a rain shortened, 7-5 win in Cincinnati to move into first place by two points over Vladimir Guerrero of the Blue Jays. Guerrero drew a walk in five trips to the plate as Seattle takes that game 9-7 in ten innings.

Bryan Reynolds of the Pirates jumps to third place as he singles, homers, and walks twice against Colorado. It’s not enough as the Rockies take the game 6-2. Matt Olson of the Athletics drops to fourth place as he goes 0 for 4 in a 3-1 win over the Rangers. Max Muncy of the Dodgers stands in fifth place as the Dodgers had the night off.

Two hitters post game scores in the 90s, the best going to Ozzie Albies of the Braves at 93. In the 20-2 win over the Mets, Albies goes five for six with two home runs and seven RBI. Luis Urias of the Brewers goes four for five with a double and two home runs for a 90. Trea Turner‘s cycle was good for an 84.

June 30, 2021

Best Batter Today

There’s another switch at number five after Tuesday’s games for the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays stays on top as he singles, doubles, and walks in a 9-3 victory over the Mariners. Guerrero now owns a rather impressive .344/.446/.685 slash line. Complete offensive players hit for average, get on base, and hit for power. Not only does Guerrero do all that, he is superlative in each category.

Fernando Tatis Jr.of the Padres holds second place with a single and three walks in a 5-4 win over the Reds. Both Tatis and Guerrero have learned early the value of taking pitches out of the strike zone. Matt Olson of the Athletics stays in third place despite an 0 for 4 at the plate as the Rangers take the game 5-4. Carlos Correa of the Astros picks up two walks in five trips for fourth place, but the Orioles win the game big 13-3.

Moving back into the top five is Max Muncy of the Dodgers. He goes one for two with a home run and two walks in a 3-1 win over the Giants. Muncy’s extra-base hits ticked up again to return him to the top five. The Dodgers are now 1 1/2 games behind the Giants in the NL West.

Cedric Mullins of the Orioles posts the best game score of the day, an 81. He goes four for five with a walk, a double, and a home run in the blow out of the Astros. It’s not the first time Mullins finished on top, and he ranks fourteenth on the list.

June 29, 2021

Best Batter Today

The top three players in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings remained the same as their teams were idle. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays, Fernando Tatis Jr.of the Padres, and Matt Olson of the Athletics all had the night off. Carlos Correa of the Astros remains in fourth place as he goes one for three with a walk and a hit by pitch in a 9-7 Orioles win. That game saw a wild ninth inning in which the Orioles scored five times in the top of the inning, to break a 4-4 tie, while the Astros came back with three runs in the bottom of the ninth inning. Correa getting plunked started that rally.

Adam Frazier of the Pirates moves into the fifth slot, dropping his teammate Bryan Reynolds to sixth. Frazier had the day off, so it was Reynolds going one for four that caused the change. Pirates fans should be very happy the team employees two top hitters, and maybe the turnaround for the franchise is closer than they think.

The best game score of the night goes to Kyle Schwarber of the Nationals, three for five with two home runs for a score of 77. Schwarber now owns 15 home runs in June. He moves up to tenth in the ranking.

June 28, 2021

Best Batter Today

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays stays atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings with a two for four afternoon against the Orioles, including his fourteenth double of the season. That gives him forty one extra-base hits as we approach the mid-point of the season. The Blue Jays win the game 5-2.

It’s all Jrs at the top as Fernando Tatis Jr.of the Padres takes second place. He doubles and walks in a 5-4 win over Arizona. Matt Olson of the Athletics sits in third place as he posts a one for three game with two walks in a 6-2 win over the Giants.

Carlos Correa of the Astros stays in fourth place as he walks, hits a sacrifice fly, and executes as sacrifice bunt in 2-1 Tigers win in ten innings. Bryan Reynolds of the Pirates extends his hitting streak to twelve games with a two for five day in a 7-2 defeat of the Cardinals.

Shohei Ohtani of the Angels posts the best game score of the day as he misses the cycle by a single. He does get to first base on a walk in one of his five plate appearances for an 82. The Angels beat the Rays 6-4. Ohtani now has 46 extra-base hits on the season. Ohtani has generated 3.2 fWAR as a batter and 1.3 fWAR as a pitcher.

June 27, 2021

Best Batter Today

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays homers once again to sit atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He added two walks to go with his twenty sixth blast of the season as the Blue Jays beat Baltimore 12-4. He holds a two point lead over Fernando Tatis Jr.of the Padres, one for three with a walk as the Diamondbacks end their road losing streak with a 10-1 victory.

Matt Olson of the Athletics holds third place as he posts a one for five night in a 6-5, ten inning, Giants win in the battle of the Bay. Carlos Correa of the Astros goes one for three in both ends of the double header against Detroit, homering in the second game. He holds fourth place, as Houston splits the double header. Bryan Reynolds of the Pirates moves back into fifth place as he goes one for four in a 3-1 Cardinals victory.

Two players tie for the best game score of that day, 82. Joey Gallo of the Rangers does what he does best, launching two home runs and drawing two walks in an 8-0 shutout of the Royals. Eduardo Escobar of the Diamondbacks is a big reason Arizona ends their road losing streak as he posts a four for five night, including a double and a home run.

“I’m proud of these guys,” Lovullo said. “We played a real good baseball game today, we had a good approach and we won our first road game in a couple months. It’s actually hard to even think about, it’s hard to say, but I’ve heard several people talking about it already so it’s a burden we’ve been walking around with and it feels real nice to get rid of.”
APNews.com

Note that the team’s best hitter, Ketel Marte, single then left the game with a hamstring injury.

June 26, 2021

Best Batter Today

There is a new best batter as of this morning in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Fernando Tatis of the Padres posts a game score of 93 with a four for five night, including three home runs to put his season total at 25. That moves him from sixth to first. The Padres beat the hapless Diamondbacks 11-5, who have now lost 24 straight games on the road.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays stays in second place as he hits his twenty fifth home run of the season as well. It was part of a two for five night that left his batting average at .340. Baltimore takes the game 6-5 in extra innings, however, ending their 20-game road losing streak.

Matt Olson of the Athletics drops to third place, going 0 for 4 in a 2-0 Giants win. Johnny Cueto pitched seven shutout innings for the win as the Giants held the Athletics to six hits and just one walk.

Rain postponed the Astros at the Tigers, so Carlos Correa and Michael Brantley fall to fourth and fifth place respectively. Three points separate the top four in the rankings.

June 25, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

0.369 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Matt Harvey.
0.362 — Teoscar Hernandez batting against Matt Harvey.
0.358 — Bo Bichette batting against Matt Harvey.
0.341 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Matt Harvey.
0.335 — Randal Grichuk batting against Matt Harvey.
0.333 — Marcus Semien batting against Matt Harvey.
0.327 — Reese McGuire batting against Matt Harvey.
0.324 — Michael Brantley batting against Wily Peralta.
0.322 — Ketel Marte batting against Chris Paddack.
0.320 — Santiago Espinal batting against Matt Harvey.

I guess you just pick you favorite Blue Jays player, as whomever starts would appear to be guaranteed a hit against Harvey. Tonight’s game might look like this:

At this point, the Harvey experiment seems to have failed, I wonder how long Baltimore will stick with him? That said, Guerrero is a good pick most days.

Here are the NN picks:

0.324, 0.757 — Michael Brantley batting against Wily Peralta.
0.369, 0.750 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Matt Harvey.
0.322, 0.748 — Ketel Marte batting against Chris Paddack.
0.358, 0.745 — Bo Bichette batting against Matt Harvey.
0.362, 0.741 — Teoscar Hernandez batting against Matt Harvey.
0.316, 0.728 — Nick Castellanos batting against Drew Smyly.
0.341, 0.724 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Matt Harvey.
0.295, 0.723 — Trea Turner batting against Pablo Lopez.
0.300, 0.719 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Domingo German.
0.270, 0.719 — Tim Anderson batting against Yusei Kikuchi.

The NN is based more on the batter than than the pitcher. Brantley is great both long and short term, so comes out on top here. Guerrero is the consensus first pick, with Bichette the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 25, 2021

Best Batter Today

Matt Olson of the Athletics posts a good game to stay atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He collects two singles and two walks in five trips to the plate as Oakland defeats Texas 5-1.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays hit his 24th home run of the season, which leads the majors, and drew a walk to stay in second place as Toronto beats Baltimore 9-0, one of three shutouts on the day. Houston teammates Carlos Correa and Michael Brantley sit three and four respectively. Correa goes three for four with two walks and Brantley doubles and singles in six at bats as the Astros down the Tigers 12-3. That extends the Astros win streak to eleven games. Both hitters played a huge role in the streak.

Bryan Reynolds of the Pirates cracks the top five as he goes three for four with a home run and a walk in the 8-2 Pittsburgh win over St. Louis. Reynolds is not batting .313/.403/.543 on the season, a bright spot for the team. He is on a multi-hit tear, with at least two hits in eight of his last eleven games. His game score of 76 ranked second on the day.

The top game score goes to Aaron Judge of the Yankees. He posts a perfect day, three for three with two walks, and his hits included a double and a home run for a game score of 82. Judge now stands 34th in the rankings. The Yankees beat the Royals 8-1.

June 24, 2021

Best Batter Today

The Baseball Musings Batter Rankings saw a slight mixing of the top five batters due to Wednesday’s games. Matt Olson of the Athletics stays on top after going 0 for 4 in a 5-3 Rangers victory. That allows Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays to close the gap with a one for three with a walk performance as Toronto beats Miami 3-1. The two are now separated by one point.

Houston teammates Carlos Correa and Michael Brantley each go two for four in a 13-0 blowout of the Orioles. Correa stands third after doubling twice, while Brantley takes fourth place as he raises his league leading batting average to .356.

The fifth slot goes to Fernando Tatis Jr. of the Padres, who draws a walk in a 5-3 win over the Dodgers. Ten points separate five through 15 in the list.

The highest game score on Wednesday goes to Travis Jankowski of the Phillies. He posts a 77 as he collects three hits and a walk in five PA, including a double and a home run. Washington wins the slugfest, however, 13-12. The Nationals are now in second place, four games behind the Mets.

June 23, 2021

Best Batter Today

Tuesday’s games did not bring much change to the top five in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Matt Olson of the Athletics doubled and walked in a 13-6 win over Texas to keep the top spot. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays goes two for four in a 2-1 win over the Marlins to stay in second place. The Astros gave Carlos Correa the night off, and he sits in third place. Fernando Tatis Jr.of the Padres goes 0 for 4 in a 3-2 win over the Dodgers to drop to fourth place, and Michael Brantley of the Astros picks up two more singles against the Orioles in a 3-1 win to raise his batting average to .353 and hold fifth place.

The highest game score of the day belongs to Tyler Naquin of the Reds. He is perfect at the plate, four for four with a home run and a walk for a game score of 83. Naquin owns an isolate power of .217 as 23 of his 54 hits have gone for extra bases.

June 22, 2021

Best Batter Today

A great veteran hitter joins the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings this morning. Matt Olson of the Athletics stays in the top slot as he doubles and walks in an 8-3 Rangers win. The Blue Jays are idle on Monday, leaving Vladimir Guerrero Jr.in the second slot. Fernando Tatis Jr.of the Padres does play, as his injury proves fleeting, and goes two for three with a double and two walks to take third place and help beat the Dodgers 6-2.

Astros batter occupy the fourth and fifth slots after their 10-2, rain delayed, drubbing of the Orioles. Carlos Correa singled in five trips for fourth place. Michael Brantley enters the top five after a long absence with a perfect night, three for three with a double and two walks. His game score of 75 proved to be the best of the night. In his twelve games since returning from an injury, Brantley is 24 for 47, .511 with nine extra-base hits, six walks, and just four strikeouts. He leads the AL with a .350 batting average.

June 20, 2021

Best Batter Monday

Matt Olson of the Athletics extends his lead in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings with a single and home run in four trips as the Yankees win a low scoring game 2-1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays holds second place with a single and two walks as Toronto triumphs over Baltimore 7-4.

Third place goes to Carlos Correa of the Astros, two for three with a home run and two walks in an 8-2 win over the White Sox. That puts the Astros into first place in the AL West, percentage points ahead of the Athletics. Jesse Winker of the Reds and Fernando Tatis Jr.of the Padres saw San Diego take the game between the two clubs 3-2. Winker posted a one for five while Tatis sat with an injury.

The best game score of the day goes to Kyle Schwarber of the Nationals, three for four with three home runs for a score of 88. Schwarber is doin g a fine job in the lead-off slot for the Nationals.

June 20, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

0.362 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Matt Harvey.
0.351 — Teoscar Hernandez batting against Matt Harvey.
0.350 — Bo Bichette batting against Matt Harvey.
0.340 — Buster Posey batting against Zach Eflin.
0.335 — Marcus Semien batting against Matt Harvey.
0.332 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Matt Harvey.
0.330 — Randal Grichuk batting against Matt Harvey.
0.330 — Adam Frazier batting against Sam Hentges.
0.325 — Michael Brantley batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.323 — Raimel Tapia batting against Eric Lauer.

Coming into the season, Matt Harvey worked on improving his mechanics and supposedly found some new movement. It seems to be pretty much for naught. Batters are hanging a .354 BABIP on him, his strikeout rate has not improved, and he still gives up a lot of homers. The Log5 Method is telling us that anyone of the Blue Jays is a good pick today.

Here are the NN picks:

0.362, 0.746 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Matt Harvey.
0.350, 0.739 — Bo Bichette batting against Matt Harvey.
0.323, 0.736 — Raimel Tapia batting against Eric Lauer.
0.340, 0.732 — Buster Posey batting against Zach Eflin.
0.351, 0.732 — Teoscar Hernandez batting against Matt Harvey.
0.318, 0.720 — Donovan Solano batting against Zach Eflin.
0.320, 0.719 — Yonathan Daza batting against Eric Lauer.
0.330, 0.719 — Adam Frazier batting against Sam Hentges.
0.332, 0.718 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Matt Harvey.
0.273, 0.716 — Ketel Marte batting against Tony Gonsolin.

Guerrero is now second in the batting title race to Michael Brantley of the Astros, but Guerrero may move back in front today base on these predictions. Bichette is the consensus second choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 20, 2021

Best Batter Today

Matt Olson of the Athletics stays atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings with a three for five day against the Yankees. New York comes out on top, however, 7-5. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays stays in second place with a two for five day, including his 23rd home run of the season in a 10-7 win in Baltimore.

Jesse Winker of the Reds and Fernando Tatis Jr.of the Padres go head-to-head again as San Diego wins 7-5. Winker posts a two for five game with a double for third place, while Tatis goes one for two with a walk before injuring his shoulder on a diving play at shortstop and winds up in fourth place. It was a wild game with Joey Votto ejected and Tatis’s replacement, Kim Ha-seong, hitting the game winning home run in the eighth inning.

Carlos Correa of the Astros stays in the top five with a home run and a walk in the 7-3 win over the White Sox.

The highest game score of the day goes to Ryan Mountcastle of the Orioles, who posts a 95. He homered three times in a game filled with homers and added a single for a perfect afternoon.

June 19, 2021

Best Batter Today

Matt Olson of the Athletics takes over the top spot in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He posts a one for five with his nineteenth home run of the season as Oakland beats the Yankees 5-3. That’s enough for him pass Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays who went 0 for 4 in a 7-1 loss to the Orioles.

Fernando Tatis Jr.of the Padres takes third place as he singles, doubles, and walks in five trips as San Diego scores an 8-2 win over the Reds. Tatis is now slugging .677. In the same game, fourth place Jesse Winker of the Reds goes two for four.

Rounding out the top five is Carlos Correa of the Astros. He goes 0 for 2 with a walk as Houston makes the most of their five hits and three walks to down the White Sox 2-1.

The top game score of the night goes to Adam Duvall of the Marlins, as they down the Cubs 10-2. Duvall goes three for four with a walk and two home runs for a game score of 86. Note that Cedric Mullins of the Orioles has the same line, but I do give a point for each RBI. Duvall drove in six runs, Mullins four. Duvall is hitting just .215 on the season, but slugging .449 as 21 of his 46 hits went for extra bases.

June 18, 2021

Best Batter Today

Thursday produced little change in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays remains at the top of the list after going one for four as the Yankees sweep the Blue Jays with an 8-4 victory. Matt Olson of the Athletics stands in second place with the A’s idle.

Carlos Correa of the Astros doubles and walks for third place as Houston beats the White Sox 10-2. Fernando Tatis Jr.of the Padres takes four place as he homers and walks in a 6-4 win over Cincinnati. Tatis is now tied for the major league lead with 22 home runs. Jesse Winker of the Reds rounds out the top five as he doubles in five trips in the same game.

The best game score of the day goes to Curtis Casali of the Giants. The catcher posted a three for five day, missing the cycle by a double. It was his first home run of the season and the first triple of his career, earning him a game score of 76. The game featured three triples. The Giants beat the Diamondbacks 10-3. This was the fourth game of the season that involved three triples, and three of those games were played by the Diamondbacks.

June 17, 2021

Best Batter Today

The number five slot changes once again in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays stays on top with a one for four night in a 3-2 Yankees win. Matt Olson of the Athletics closes the gap a bit with a three for four effort in an 8-4 win over the Angels. He collected multiple hits in seven of his last fifteen games.

Carlos Correa of the Astros sits in third place. He doubled and walked in an 8-4 win over the Rangers. Jesse Winker takes fourth place as he goes one for three with a walk, helping the Reds sweep the Brewers with a 2-1 victory.

Fernando Tatis Jr.of the Padres moves back into to the top five as he walks, doubles, and homers in Colorado, but the Rockies win the game 8-7. Youngsters lead the way in home runs this season, with Guerrero and Tatis one-two in the majors and number one in their respective leagues. The seasonal age 20-24 cohort hit 280 home runs in 8643 PA, 3.24%. The prime age players, age 25-29, hit 1221 home runs in 39802 PA, 3.07%. The previous ten season produced a 2.82% home run rate for the 20-24 year olds, 2.90% for the prime players. We’re looking at a fantastic group of rising stars.

The highest game score of the day goes to Eli White of the Rangers. The rightfielder posted a career night in an otherwise dismal season going two for three with two home runs and a walk for game score of 77. Those were the first two home runs of his 47 game career.

June 16, 2021

Best Batter Today

Vladimir Guerrero Jr of the Blue Jays stays atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings with a one for four night as the Yankees come back to take the game 6-5. Guerrero’s teammate, Marcus Semien, moves back into the top five with a single and two walks in five trips to the plate to take the fifth slot.

Matt Olson of the Athletics singles in four trips for second place as Oakland beats the Angels 6-4. Oakland remains hot, 8-2 in their last ten games with a five game winning streak, but lead the Astros by just 2 1/2 games. That’s in part to Carlos Correa of the Astros standing third in the rankings after a two for three night with a walk and his twelfth home run. The Astros beat the Rangers in extra innings 6-3.

Fourth place goes to Jesse Winker of the Reds, who did not start but went one for two as a pinch hitter in a 2-1, extra inning win over the Brewers. The Reds have won five in a row.

Ryan McMahon of the Rockies misses the cycle by a double as he goes three for three with a sacrifice fly for a game score of 78, the highest of Tuesday night. The Rockies beat the Padres 8-4. McMahon is slugging .527 on the season, .592 in Colorado.

June 15, 2021

Best Batter Today

Vladimir Guerrero Jr of the Blue Jays continues to pull away from the pack in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He provides the only offense in the Red Sox 2-1 victory, going two for four with his twenty second home run of the season. Matt Olson of the Athletics tried to keep pace with a single and a walk in an 8-5 win over the Angels. He stands 14 points back in second place.

Jesse Winker of the Reds sits seven points back in third place after a collecting a single and a walk in a 10-2 win over the Brewers. His teammate, Nick Castellanos takes fourth place as he singles in five trips.

Carlos Correa of the Astros rounds out the top five. Houston had the night off, but 0 for 4s by Marcus Semien and Fernando Tatis Jr drop them in the rankings.

The highest game score on Monday belonged to Sean Murphy of the Athletics. Murphy reached base all four times he came to the plate with a single, home run, and two hit by pitches for a 75. He is only hitting .217 on the season, but with eighteen walks and nine hit by pitches, his OBP is a decent .317.

June 14, 2021

Best Batter Today

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays goes three for five Sunday afternoon against the Red Sox to extend his lead in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. The three hits included his twenty first home run, leading the majors. His teammate, Marcus Semien, went two for four with his fifteenth home run and a sacrifice fly to rank fourth. Semien should challenge his career high of 33 home runs hit in 2019. The Blue Jays blow out the Red Sox 18-4.

Matt Olson of the Athletics hits two home runs in four trips as Oakland beats Kansas City 6-3. Olson puts some space between him and the pack as he sits seven points ahead of third place.

Two Reds players third and fifth place. Jesse Winker goes two for three with two doubles and a hit by pitch for third place, and Nick Castellanos goes one for four with a double for fifth place. The Reds beat the Rockies 6-2.

The highest game score of the day goes to Bo Bichette of the Blue Jays. He goes four for five with a walk, a double, and a home run for a game score of 83. He ranks 45th overall.

June 13, 2021

Strength Versus Strength

The Toronto Blue Jays came into Sunday with 91 home runs hit, the second most in the American League. The Red Sox came into the game with 56 home runs allowed, ten fewer than any other team in the AL. The Blue Jays win this battle as seven players hit a total of eight home runs, and the Blue Jays lead the Red Sox 18-4 in the bottom of the ninth. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.hit his MLB leading 21st homer, while Teoscar Hernandez hit two dingers. The Red Sox will come out of the game still with the fewest home runs allowed in the league, but much closer to the pack. The Blues Jays hitters should take over the top slot.

Update: The Blue Jays win 18-4.

June 13, 2021

Best Batter Today

The games of Saturday shake up the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings a bit. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays stays on top with a home run and two walks in four plate appearances as Toronto beats Boston 7-2. Guerrero now leads by 12 just under 12 points as he is the first player to reach twenty home runs in the 2021 season. His teammate, Marcus Semien, goes one for five and sits in fifth place.

Matt Olson of the Athletics records the highest game score of the day, an 80. He post a four for five day with a double and a home run as the Athletic beat the Royals 11-2. It was a good day for Oakland Matts as Matt Chapman collects three hits, including a double and a home run for a game score of 73, second highest on the day.

Third place goes to Nick Castellanos of the Reds. His two for five with a double helps down Colorado 10-3. Jose Ramirez of the Indians stands in fourth place after a single and a walk in a 5-4, extra-inning victory over Seattle.

Slots two through twelve in the Rankings are separated by ten points, so expect more shuffling of the order.