Tag Archives: Vladimir Guerrero

August 29, 2024

Best Batter Today

Yordan Alvarez of the Astros goes four for four with a walk and three home runs to move up to fourth in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. His game score of 98 not only topped the day, but ranks as the second highest game score of the season. It is the 18th time this season a player posted a score of at least 90. Six of those involved three homer games.

Aaron Judge of the Yankees remains at the top of the list after a one for two with two walks in a 5-2 Nationals win. His teammate, Juan Soto, posted an 0 for 4 in the game, and went 0 for 12 with three strikeouts in his visit to his old stomping grounds. That drops him to fifth place.

Valdimir Guerrero Jr of the Blue Jays holds second place after a one for three in a 3-0 Boston win. Bobby Witt Jr. oft the Royals used a two for five game with a home run to move into third place. The Guardians took the game 7-5 to break the tie for first place in the AL Central.

August 28, 2024

Best Batter Today

Tuesday brought no change to the top five in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees remain one and three respectively. Judge doubled and walked, while Soto took an 0 for 4 in the 4-2 Nationals win. Judge’s probability of 63 home runs this season stand at 0.21.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays sits in second place after a two for five with a double in a 6-3 Red Sox win. Bobby Witt Jr.of the Royals holds fourth place as he posted a one for four with a HBP and a double in a 6-1 win over the Guardians. The Royals and Guardians are now tied for first place in the AL Central!

Fifth place belongs to Yordan Alvarez of the Astros, one for four in a 5-0 Phillies victory.

The best game score of the day belonged to Ezequiel Tovar of the Rockies, three for four with a double and two home runs in a 9-8 slugfest won by the Marlins. Tovar topped his doubles total of last year, 38 to 37. Power is his game, with 61 extra-base hits. Those come at a high cost of outs, as he owns a paltry .298 OBP.

Griffin Conine, Mr. Marlins Jr. collected the first two extra-base hits of his career, a double and a triple in his second MLB game.

August 25, 2024

Best Batter Monday

Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees remain one and three respectively in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings after games of Sunday. Judge produced the third best game score of the day, a 76, as he went two for four with a walk and two home runs, bringing his season HR total to 51. That puts him in good shape to break his own AL record of 62 homers in a season. Soto also went two for four with a walk, but hit just one home run, his 37th of the season. That makes them the crazy 88 at the moment. The Yankees beat the Rockies 10-3.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays holds on to second place with a two for three with two walks and a double in an 8-2 win over the Angels. His OBP rises to .395.

Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals stays in fourth place with a two for four day, including a home run to raise his BA to .347. In the same game, Garrett Stubbs of the Phillies goes four for four, missing the cycle by a home run. That was good for a game score of 80, one of two players with the highest game score of the day. The backup catcher raises his slugging percentage to .281. The Phillies beat the Royals 11-3.

Once again, Yordan Alvarez of the Astros did not play, and no one trailing him was able to overtake the fifth slot.

The other 80 belonged to Eugenio Suarez of the Diamondbacks. He went four for four with a home run and three RBI for his 80 in a 7-5 win over the Red Sox, Arizona sweeping the series. He’s driven in 82 runs on the season, giving him a good chance to reach 100 RBI for the third time in his career.

August 25, 2024

Best Batter Today

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays moves past Juan Soto of the Yankees into second place in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Guerrero posted a two for three with a walk, a double, and a home run in a 3-1 victory over the Angels. Soto singled in a 9-2 Rockies victory. His teammate, Aaron Judge, remains in first place after drawing a walk and getting hit by a pitch.

Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals went 0 for 4 in an 11-2 Phillies win. J.T. Realmuto of the Phillies posted the second highest game score of the day, an 82 as he went three for five with two home runs and seven RBI, a career high in RBI for the catcher.

Yordan Alvarez of the Astros once again did not play due to injury. He remains listed as day to day.

The highest game score of the day, a 93, belonged to Seiya Suzuki of the Cubs. He goes three for five with a walk, a triple, and two home runs as he took the triple-home run number post seriously. He owns six triples this season, matching his total from last year. He has plenty of time to top that. He ranks 19th as Suzuki took off in late June, with 25 extra-base hits in his last 49 games, including five triples and ten home runs.

August 24, 2024

Best Batter Today

Still no movement as the top five in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings remain the same. Teammates Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees remain 1-2 respectively, but Judge, with five home runs in his last four games, now leads Soto by 29 points. Both came to the plate four times in the 3-0 win over the Rockies, Judge homering while Soto drew a walk.

Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals ranks third as Kansas City takes control of second place in the AL Central with a 7-4 win over Philadelphia. Witt singled in five at bats. That makes two division races tighter as the Royals gain a game on the Guardians, cutting Cleveland’s lead to one game, and reducing the Phillies NL East lead to five games.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays did not start and remains fourth. There was no injury involved, just a planned day off. Yordan Alvarez of the Astros did not play as a neck injury leaves him day to day. He ranks fifth.

Two batters tied for best game score of the day, a 73. Luke Raley of the Mariners went two for three with a walk and a home run in a ten inning, walk-off win for Seattle. The Mariners came back with four runs in the eighth inning to tie the game, and eventually win. The Astros allowed five runs in the eighth inning to fall to the Orioles, so Dan Wilson wins his first game as the Seattle manager and cuts the Houston lead to 4 1/2 games.

Eugenio Suarez of the Diamondbacks also owned a 73 as he goes three for five with a grand slam and and five RBI in a 12-2 win at Fenway Park. While Suarez’s batting average is in line with his career, his OBP and slugging percentages are well below his norms.

August 23, 2024

Best Batter Today

Once again, the top five remain the same in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees stand one and two respectively after a 6-0 win over the Guardians. Judge posted a one for three with a walk and a home run, while Soto experience a rare poor day, 0 for 4 with two strikeouts.

Bobby Witt Jr. and the Royals did not play as Witt remains third. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays drew a walk in four trips to the plate in a 5-3 over the Angels. One point separates the Juniors.

Yordan Alvarez of the Astros rounds out the top five. He went one for five in a 6-0 win over Baltimore, a game in which all eight Astros hits went for singles.

The best game score of the day belonged to Miguel Amaya of the Cubs, a 74. The second year catcher went three for four with a home run and five RBI in a 10-2 win over the Tigers. He hits like a backup catcher, with a career .218/.296/.342 slash line in 143 games. He hit better in the minor leagues, so maybe he is finally adjusting to MLB pitching.

August 23, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

0.324 — Jose Iglesias batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.323 — Aaron Judge batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.319 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Taijuan Walker.
0.319 — Xavier Edwards batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.307 — Amed Rosario batting against Bailey Falter.
0.307 — Luis Arraez batting against Paul Blackburn.
0.300 — Masataka Yoshida batting against Ryne Nelson.
0.300 — Jarren Duran batting against Ryne Nelson.
0.296 — Marcell Ozuna batting against MacKenzie Gore.
0.296 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Jack Kochanowicz.
0.293 — Juan Soto batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.293 — Jazz Chisholm batting against Kyle Freeland.

Log5 provides an interesting list today, as there are a number of high batting average sluggers included. Judge, Ozuna, Guerrero, and Soto are not exactly “put the ball in play” types of batters like Iglesias and Arraez. They walk all draw walks, and Judge and Ozuna add a ton of strikeouts. Judge is leading the majors in BABIP this season at .381. It’s a shame he does strike out so much, because at the level, with his home run power, he could hit .400 if he put the ball in play more.

I also made the list a little longer than usual, as Soto and Chisholm come out even. Their hit averages are very similar. Soto owns a high walk rate and a low K rate, Chisholm is the opposite. If you take the combination as the not in play rate, they are almost the same. This season, Chisholm has the higher BABIP, .312 to .299, but Soto makes up the difference with home runs.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.307, 0.744 — Luis Arraez batting against Paul Blackburn.
0.324, 0.744 — Jose Iglesias batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.319, 0.739 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Taijuan Walker.
0.307, 0.719 — Amed Rosario batting against Bailey Falter.
0.291, 0.715 — Yainer Diaz batting against Cade Povich.
0.319, 0.713 — Xavier Edwards batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.300, 0.709 — Masataka Yoshida batting against Ryne Nelson.
0.323, 0.708 — Aaron Judge batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.300, 0.708 — Jarren Duran batting against Ryne Nelson.
0.283, 0.703 — Jose Altuve batting against Cade Povich.

The NN, weighing batter ability more heavily, tends to do a better job of finding the ball in play hitters. Judge still makes the top ten, albeit at a much lower rank. Judge and Witt both carry ten-game hit streaks into the day.

Iglesias stands as the consensus top pick with Witt the consensus double down choice. By the way, that is a real tie at the top, as out to four decimal places both Arraez and Iglesias are .7439. They play against each other tonight.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 22, 2024

Best Batter Today

It’s tough to dislodge Aaron Judge of the Yankees from the top slot in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. His teammate, Juan Soto, tried Wednesday night as he tied for the third best game score of a day, a 75. Soto went two for three with a walk, a double, and a home run. Judge, however, posted the best game score of the day, a 78. He went two for three with a HBP and two home runs.

The rest of the top five stays the same. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays holds third place after a one for four with a walk in a 11-7 Reds win. Elly De La Cruz of the Reds matched Soto’s 75 game score in that contest. Bobby Witt Jr.of the Royals sits in fourth place. He doubled and walked in a 3-0 win over the Angels. Witt and Guerrero and 1-2 in hits in the AL, but Witt leads by 23 hits.

Yordan Alvarez of the Astros rounds out the top five. He went one for four in a 4-1 Red Sox win.

Honorable mention goes to Nolan Arenado of the Cardinals. He posted the second best game score of the day, a 76. He went three for five with a walk, double, and walk-off grand slam in the tenth inning to beat the Brewers 10-6.

August 21, 2024

Best Batter Today

The top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings holds steady after games of Tuesday. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees remain 1-2 respectively after a 9-5, twelve innings Guardians win. Judge walked doubled and homered. Soto homered and walked. Trent Grisham of the Yankees missed two chances to win the game, getting thrown out at the plate as a pinch runner in regulation, then popping out in the tenth with a man on third and one out.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays singled and homered in a 10-3 win over the Reds for third place. Bobby Witt Jr.of the Royals went 3 for 5 with two doubles to raise his BA to .352, but the Angels prevailed 9-5.

Yordan Alvarez of the Astros drew a walk in a 6-5 Red Sox win. Jarren Duran and Triston Casas, playing for Boston, posted the two highest game scores of the day. Duran produced a perfect night at the plate, four for four with a walk, a double, and a home run for a game score of 84. Casas came in with a 73 thanks to a 2 for 3 with two walks and a double.

Max Muncy returned to the Dodgers lineup and produced a game score of 67, seventh best on the night. He went one for two with two walks and a home run in the 6-3 win over the Mariners.

August 20, 2024

Best Batter Today

Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees remain 1-2 respectively in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings with the team idle on Monday. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays did play, but remains in third place after a one for four with a home run and a hit by pitch in a 6-3 Reds win. Bobby Witt Jr.went one for four in a 5-3 win over the Angels to remain in fourth place. He is now hitting .349. Yordan Alvarez produced a good game for the Astros, three for four with a double in a 5-4, walk off win against the Red Sox. Yainer Diaz homered in the bottom of the ninth. He ranks 18th.

Corey Seager of the Rangers posted the best game score of the day, a 78. He went two for three with two home runs and an intentional walk in a 4-3 win over the Pirates. Seager ranks 10th. He hit nine home runs in 16 August games for a .723 slugging percentage on the month.

August 19, 2024

Best Batter Today

The sixth lowest day for runs this season (6.47 per game) did not produce a change in the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees remain one and two after Judge singles and Soto walks in a 3-2, ten inning win by the Tigers, Detroit scoring in the bottom of the ninth to end the chance of a 1-0 shutout.

Vladimir Guerrero of the Blue Jays sits in third place as he drew a walk in a 1-0 win over the Cubs. Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals singled and walked in an 8-1 win over the Reds. Yordan Alvarez of the Astros did not play in a 2-0 win over the White Sox.

The best game score of the day belonged to Ryan Jeffers of the Twins, a 70. That low high-score was an indication of a low offensive day. Jeffers went two for three with a home run and a walk in a 6-5 comeback win by the Rangers. Jeffers is having a good year for power, with 37 of his 74 hits going for extra bases.

August 17, 2024

Best Batter Today

Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees remain 1-2 respectively in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Judge homered and Soto drew a walk in a 3-0 win over the Tigers. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays stays in third place despite an 0 for 5 in a 6-5, ten inning Cubs win. Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals gains on the leaders after a three for four with a double and a home run in a 7-1 win over the Reds. Witt stands second in a close race for extra-base hits and total bases to Judge. Yordan Alvarez of the Astros rounds out the top five. He posted a one for four in a 5-4 White Sox win.

For the White Sox, Luis Robert Jr.went four for five with two home runs and four RBI for the best game score of the day, an 86. Robert’s .212/.272/.424 slash line and injuries is a part of the reason for the poor White Sox performance this season. If he can have more games like this, maybe Chicago won’t finish with a worse winning percentage than the Mets.

August 16, 2024

Best Batter Today

The top five in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings remain unchanged as none of the players saw action on Thursday. Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bobby Witt Jr. and Yordan Alvarez stand 1-5 respectively.

The best game score of the came off the bat of Weston Wilson of the Phillies, an 81. Wilson went four for five, hitting for the cycle in the 13-3 mashing of the Nationals.

Wilson tripled and singled in the fourth; homered in the seventh and, then — with fans chanting “Double! Double!” — doubled to right in the eighth, with Alex Call failing on a diving attempt.

“When I was on the on-deck circle, I heard plenty of people saying it,” Wilson said. “Definitely knew. What I was doing was working, so I just kind of stayed with it.”
ESPN.com

It was the tenth cycle in Phillies history, and the fourth cycle of the 2024 season. Three of them came since the All-Star break.

Wilson only played 24 games in his MLB career, but carries a .333/.403/.630 slash line. Seven of his 18 hits went for extra bases. In four seasons at AAA he batted .247/.337/.467.

August 15, 2024

Best Batter Today

Aaron Judge and Juan Soto remained 1-2 respectively in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Each posted a game score of 69 in the 10-2 win over the White Sox, which is pretty difficult when they bat back-to-back in the lineup. Judge went two for four with a walk, a double, and a home run. Judge broke two records with his 300th home run:

Judge hit the mark in his 955th game and 3,431st at-bat with a three-run drive in the eighth inning. The six-time All-Star and 2022 American League MVP drove a 3-0 up-and-in sinker from Chad Kuhl into the White Sox bullpen in left for his major-league-leading 43rd homer.

…

Ralph Kiner reached 300 homers in his 1,087th game, and Babe Ruth did it in his 3,831st at-bat.

“Those are some guys that have done a lot of great things in this game,” Judge said. “You throw around a lot of those names to people who don’t know baseball and they know who they are. It’s a special group to be in.”
ESPN.com

Kiner and Ruth saw different finishes to their careers. Ruth hit another 400+ home runs, and Kiner was out of the game a couple of years later.

Soto homered for the fourth time in five plate appearances leading off the game, then walked three times.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays remains third after going three for five with a double and a home run in the 9-2 win over the Angels. Bobby Witt Jr.of the Royals went two for four with a homer and a walk in a 4-1 win over the Twins for fourth place. Yordan Alvarez of the Astros drew two walks in a 2-1 win over Tampa Bay, a game decided in ten innings in which each team collected just two hits. The Astros won their eighth game in a row.

Pete Alonso of the Mets and Eugenio Suarez of the Diamondbacks tied for highest game score of the day, an 82. Alonso went four for four with a double and a home run in a 9-1 win over Athletics. Suarez went three for five with two doubles and a home run in the 11-4 win over the Rockies.

August 14, 2024

Best Batter Today

Juan Soto of the Yankees moved back into second place in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings after a three for four performance with a walk and three home runs in a 4-1 win over the White Sox. That produced a game score of 91, the highest of the evening, and the 17th score of 90 or more. It’s his second 90 of the season.

Soto only trails his teammate, Aaron Judge. Judge went two for three in the game with two walks to raise his OBP to .466.

Third place belongs to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays. He homered in five trips to the plate in a 6-1 win over the Angels. Bobby Witt Jr.sits in fourth place after a one for three in a 13-3 Twins win. The loss drops KC six games back in the division, and just one game ahead of the Red Sox for the third wild card slot.

Yordan Alvarez of the Astros remained in fifth place after drawing a walk in a 3-2 win over the Rays. Houston is now 1 1/2 games ahead of the Mariners in the AL West.

August 13, 2024

Best Batter Today

The top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings did not change due to Monday’s games. Aaron Judge, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Juan Soto, Bobby Witt Jr., and Yordan Alvarez remain at the top of the list.

Spencer Steer of the Reds posted the best game score of the night, a 79 He went two for three with a walk and two home runs from the leadoff slot in a 6-1 win over the Cardinals. Steer owns a .237 BA, but his .324 OBP is one of the better ones on the club.

August 11, 2024

Best Batter Monday

Yordan Alvarez of the Astros took over the fifth slot in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings with a game score of 73 on Sunday. He went two for two with a walk, a HBP, and a home run in the 10-2 win over the Red Sox.

Aaron Judge and Juan Soto remain first and third respectively. Judge went three for three with a walk and his 42nd home run of the season. Soto hit two home runs on the day as the Yankees beat the Rangers 8-7.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays saw his hit streak end with an 0 for 4 in an 8-4 Athletics victory. He remains in second place, seven points ahead of Soto.

Bobby Witt Jr. and the Royals had a rare Sunday off. He remains in fourth place.

The best game score of the day came off the bat of Cal Raleigh of the Mariners, an 85. He made the most of his appearance on Sunday Night Baseball, as he posted a three for four with a walk and two home runs in a 12-1 rout of the Mets. Raleigh is just four home runs score of his single season high of 30, set last year. While his batting average remains low, his isolated power stands at a whopping .227.

August 11, 2024

Best Batter Today

The top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings reached a steady state as the top five remain unchanged for another day. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees remain one and three respectively as the team splits a doubleheader with the Rangers. Judge went three for seven on the day with a double and two walks. Soto went one for seven with two walks.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays extended his hit streak to 22 games with a one for four in a 1-0 Oakland victory. It was one of only two hits in the game. Note that Rhys Hoskins of the Brewers also extended his hit streak to 14 games in a 1-0 game where he collected one of the two Milwaukee hits. His was a home run, however, that beat the Reds.

Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals holds fourth place with a two for three with a walk in an 8-3 win over the Cardinals. Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies rounds out the top five as he draws two walks in an 11-1 rout by the Diamondbacks. It’s possible that the three wild cards come from the NL West.

The best game score of the day goes to Sam Hilliard of the Rockies, a 79. He went three for four with two doubles and a home run in an 11-8 Braves win. Hilliard, batting ninth, drove in five runs. With a career low BA and OBP, Hilliard is all about power, as 70 of his 153 career hits went for extra bases.

August 10, 2024

Bido, Bido, Flat on His Seato

4 Replies

Oakland shuts out Toronto 1-0 behind six shutout innings by Osvaldo Bido and three hitless innings by the bullpen. Bido lowers his ERA to 3.92 in 39 innings with the Athletics this seadon. He’s only allowed two home runs in that time. He’s done a better job of keeping the ball in the park since he reached the majors.

Valdimir Guerrero of the Blue Jays extended his hit streak to 22 games with a one for four.

August 10, 2024

Best Batter Today

The top five in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings stay the same after Friday’s games. Rain washed out the Rangers and Yankees Friday night, and Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees hold first and third place respectively. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays collected two hits in a 3-1 win over the Athletics to hold second place. Bobby Witt Jr.of the Royals took and 0 for 4 with a walk in an 8-5 Cardinals victory for fourth place. Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies went 0 for 4 in a 3-2 Diamondbacks win and stays in fifth place.

In the Cardinals win, Willson Contreras of St. Louis produced the best game score of the day, an 85. He went three for four with a walk and two home runs, driving in half of the Cardinals runs. Contreras only played 72 games due to injury, but his .261/.381/.494 slash line is one of his best since 2019. His OBP would be the highest in a single season in his career.

August 9, 2024

Best Batter Today

The top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings remain unchanged. Vladimir Guerrero Jr of the Blue Jays, in second place, is closing in on the Yankees Aaron Judge. Guerrero went three for four in a 7-6 win over the Orioles, missing the cycle by a single. His game score of 80 was the second highest of the day. That extended his hit streak to 20 games. Judge went 0 for 4 in a 9-4 Angels win, while his teammate, Juan Soto, went one for four to remain in third place.

Bobby Witt Jr and the Royals had the night off, and he sits in fourth place. Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies went two for four with a double and a walk to hold fifth place.

The best game score of the day belonged to Jackson Chourio of the Brewers, an 81. I discussed his season here.

August 8, 2024

Best Batter Today

Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies used the best game score of the year to move into fifth place in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He went four for four with a walk, a double, and three home runs in a 9-4 win over the Dodgers. Schwarber hit .439/.574/1.122 in his last eleven games to push himself into the top five. His 103 game score yesterday is the only 100+ score of the year.

Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees remain first and third respectively. Judge went three for six with three walks in a doubleheader split with the Angels. Soto went one for nine with a walk.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays posted a one for three with a walk in a 7-3 Orioles win and remains in second place. Bobby Witt Jr.of the Royals goes three for four with a walk and two home runs for a game score of 83, third highest on the day. He sits in fourth place. He is hitting .468/.506/.831 since the All-Star break.

August 7, 2024

Best Batter Today

2 Replies

Due to rain, the Yankees and the Diamondbacks did not play on Tuesday. That leaves Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees in first and third place respectively, with Ketel Marte of the Diamondbacks fourt.

Send place belongs to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays. He went one for two with a walk and a hit by pitch in a 5-2 win over the Orioles. That drops Baltimore 1/2 game behind the Yankees. Fifth place goes to Bobby Witt Jr.of the Royals. He posted a two for five game with a double in the 6-5 Boston win.

The highest game score of the day belonged to Willy Adames of the Brewers. He went four for five with two home runs in a 10-0 win over the Braves. Adames brings the power with a .446 slugging percentage on a .252 BA this season.

August 6, 2024

Best Batter Today

The top three batters in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings did not play on Monday as both the Yankees and the Blue Jays took a day off. Aaron Judge, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Juan Soto remain 1-2 3 respectively.

Ketel Marte of the Diamondbacks moved into fourth place with a home run and a walk in a 7-6 win over the Guardians. I had a reader suggest that Marte should be the leading MVP candidate instead of Shohei Ohtani, since Marte plays defense. Ohtani is still ahead in fWAR (and so is Francisco Lindor, who also plays defense).

Bobby Witt Jr.of the Royals falls to fifth place in the ranking after a one for four in a 9-5 Red Sox win.

Another MVP candidate who is even with Marte in WAR is Elly De La Cruz of the Reds, who crushed the ball on Monday for a game score of 89, the best on the day. He went four for five with two doubles and two home runs in a 10-3 win over the Marlins. While De La Cruz’s batting line isn’t MVP impressive, he adds great baserunning that does not show up in this ranking.

August 5, 2024

Best Batter Today

1 Reply

The top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings remain the same after games of Sunday. The top three played at Yankee Stadium in a 4-3, ten inning Yankees win over the Blue Jays. Aaron Judge of the Yankees singled and walked three times, all intentional, to hold first place. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays went one for five to stay in second place. Juan Soto of the Yankees posted the best game of the group, a two for three with two walks, a double, and a home run. His game score of 73 ranked third on the day. He is just 0.65 points behind Guerrero.

Bobby Witt Jr.of the Royals ranks fourth after a one for five in a 3-2 win over the Tigers. Ketel Marte of the Diamondbacks holds fifth place after homering in a 6-5 win over the Pirates.

Jarren Duran of the Red Sox posted the best game score of the day, a 77. He went three for four with a walk, double, and home run in the 7-2 win for over the Rangers. Duran leads the AL in both doubles (34) and triples (13), and is tied with Witt for second place in extra-base hits with 61. He currently ranks 25th.

August 4, 2024

Best Batter Today

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.breaks up the Yankees at the top of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings with a game score of 72 against the New Yorkers. He went three for four with a double and a home run to move into second place. During his sixteen game hit streak he owns a .525/.586/1.136 slash line with 31 hits, nine of them home runs. He struck out just seven times. He now ranks number two.

His opponents in the game, Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees, now rank one and three respectively. Soto went one for five for the drop in position, while Judge collected two walks and two hits, including his 41st home run of the season.

Bobby Witt Jr.of the Royals saw his hit streak end as he went 0 for 4 with a sacrifice fly in a 6-5, eleven inning Tigers win. Ketel Marte of the Diamondbacks holds the fifth slot with a one for five in a 4-2 Pirates win.

Rob Refsnyder of the Red Sox posted the best game score of the day, a 92. He went four for four with a walk, a double and two home runs in a 7-4 Rangers win. Refsnyder destroys left-handed pitching this season, with six of this seven homers against southpaws.

August 3, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.347 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.334 — Jose Altuve batting against Zack Littell.
0.333 — Yainer Diaz batting against Zack Littell.
0.326 — Luis Arraez batting against Noah Davis.
0.321 — Freddy Fermin batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.320 — Steven Kwan batting against Zach Eflin.
0.316 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Martin Perez.
0.307 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Jordan Montgomery.
0.307 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Zack Littell.
0.303 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Zack Littell.
0.303 — Brendan Rodgers batting against Martin Perez.
0.303 — Amed Rosario batting against Mitch Spence.

Witt is hitting .508 over a 15 game hit streak, tied with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.and Colton Cowser for the longest in the majors currently. Guerrero is hitting .509.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.326, 0.755 — Luis Arraez batting against Noah Davis.
0.347, 0.750 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.334, 0.738 — Jose Altuve batting against Zack Littell.
0.333, 0.737 — Yainer Diaz batting against Zack Littell.
0.320, 0.724 — Steven Kwan batting against Zach Eflin.
0.321, 0.719 — Freddy Fermin batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.303, 0.715 — Amed Rosario batting against Mitch Spence.
0.292, 0.711 — Harold Ramirez batting against Aaron Civale.
0.316, 0.706 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Martin Perez.
0.307, 0.700 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Zack Littell.
0.255, 0.700 — Jose Iglesias batting against Jose Soriano.

Arraez pops to the top of this list after not starting against a tough (on him) lefty Friday. Witt is the consensus top pick, with Altuve and Arraez tied for the double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 3, 2024

Best Batter Today

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays trades places with Bobby Witt Jr.of the Royals once again in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Guerrero went two for three with a double and a walk in an 8-5 win over the Yankees to take third place. In the same game, Aaron Judge of the Yankees posted a two for four with walk and a home run, his 40th of the season, to remain in first place. It’s his third season of at least 40 homers. Juan Soto went one for for with a double and a walk to hold second place.

Witt produced a quiet night, one for five in a 9-2 win over the Tigers as the Royals gain on the Yankees and Orioles in the wild card race. Ketel Marte of the Diamondbacks rounds out the top five after a two for five with two home runs in a 9-8 win over the Pirates in Pittsburgh.

Corey Seager of the Rangers posted the best game score of the day, an 80 in an 11-6 Red Sox win. Seager went three for three with two home runs and a sacrifice fly. Seager’s power is down this season, but it’s due to a lack of doubles. He hit 42 last season, only 14 this year.

August 2, 2024

Best Batter Today

Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals moves up into third place in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings after a two for four with a walk, a double, and a home run in a 7-1 win over the Tigers. His game score of 69 wasn’t quite enough to bring him to the head of class as his teammate, Vinnie Pasquantino hit two home runs in five at bats, driving in five runs for a game score of 72, the best on the day. Witt’s 153 hits lead the AL by 20.

The rest of the top five did not see action on Thursday. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees remain one and two respectively. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays sits fourth with Ketel Marte of the Diamondbacks fifth. Less than five points separate two from four.

August 1, 2024

Best Batter Today

Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees remain one-two in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Soto closed the gap a bit as he went one for three with a walk in the 6-5 win over the Phillies, while Judge posted an 0 for 4 with four strikeouts. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays sits third after a one for four with a double in a 10-4 Orioles win. Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals sits fourth as he collected two hits and two walks in a 10-3 win over the White Sox. Ketel Marte of the Diamondbacks rounds out the top five with a one for four in a 5-4 win over the Nationals.

The best game score of the day belonged to Witt’s teammate, Freddy Fermin, a 78. He went four for five with a home run, his sixth of the season. The backup catcher is having an excellent season at the plate, hitting .304/.354/.441. The Royals lose nothing offensively when Fermin takes a turn behind the plate.