Tag Archives: Kansas City Royals

September 28, 2014

Pressure from the Royals

The Royals get the early lead on the White Sox, Billy Butler scoring on a sacrifice fly in the second. It’s an interesting play-by-play, as Butler doubled, Alex Gordon doubles, but Butler only went to third. Salvardor Perez knocked in the run.

The Tigers lead the Twins 1-0 in the top of the sixth, and a Tigers win makes the Royals game moot.

Update: Mike Moustakas doubles in Gordon and the Royals lead 2-0.

September 28, 2014

Massive Playoff Scenario

Things looked bad for holding three playoff games on Monday early Saturday as the Pirates fell to the Reds 10-6 in ten innings. A grand-slam by Ramon Santiago put the Pirates on the edge of elimination from the NL Central title. The Cardinals, however, fell to the Diamondbacks 5-2 later in the evening, so another Cardinal loss on Sunday and a Pittsburgh win results in a tie for the NL Central title.

The Twins blew out the Tigers 12-3, but the Royals fell behind the White Sox early, trailing 4-0 after two innings. A win would put them in a tie for the AL Central with Detroit, and while they fought back, KC fell 5-4. Now a Detroit loss and a Royals win will produce a playoff for the AL Central.

The Athletics at Rangers started an hour earlier than the Angels at Mariners. Oakland, like Kansas City, fell behind early, fought back, but ultimately lost 5-4. That gave the Mariners, trailing LAnaheim 1-0, a chance to stay alive with a win. They tied the game in the seventh on a Kyle Seager walk and a Logan Morrison double. In the ninth, with the game still tied at one, the Mariners loaded the bases with none out and failed to score. In the tenth, they moved a runner to second with one out and failed to score. Finally, in the 11th, a double, single, and fielder’s choice brought the run home, and the Mariners need a win and an Oakland loss to force a playoff for the second AL Wild Card.

The probability of three playoff games on Monday now stands at 1 in 64. If the Royals and Pirates had won yesterday, it would be 1 in 16, but the odds are down from 1 in 256 the previous day. There is a 37 in 64 chance (57.8%) of at least one playoff game on Monday, so there’s a better than even chance the season does not end today. The chance of two playoff games stands at 7 in 64 (10.9%). Still not bad.

There is no late game today. The games involving Detroit and Pittsburgh start at 1 PM EDT. The Royals face the White Sox at 2 PM EDT. Oakland at Texas kicks off at 3 PM EDT. The Mariners and Cardinals scheduled finales start at 4 PM EDT.

If Pittsburgh wins and Detroit loses early, the odds of three games on Monday increase to 1 in 16.

September 27, 2014

Massive Tie Scenarios

With the Royals winning Friday night, all massive tie scenarios are over. However, we do have a chance at three playoff games on Monday. The Royals trail the Tigers by one game, so the probability of a tie there is 1/4. The Pirates trail the Cardinals by one game, as the Cardinals won a hard-fought, ten inning game against Arizona 7-6. The chance of a tie there is also 1/4. The Mariners and Athletics both won, so the Mariners trail Oakland by two games for the second wild card. The chance of a tie there is just 1/16. So the chance of three Monday playoff games is 1/256. The chance of at last one playoff game, however, is slightly over 50%. While today should be the penultimate day of the regular season, at the moment that’s still in doubt.

Note that all these probabilities assume the teams have about a 50% chance of winning each of their games. It’s close enough.

September 26, 2014

Post-Season Royals

The Royals beat the White Sox 3-1 and guarantee a play-off berth for 2014. Jeremy Guthrie pitched seven scoreless innings after the offense scored three runs in the top of the first. It’s the first time the Royals made the playoffs since 1985.

While the Royals win kills the last massive tie scenario, we still have a shot at multiple playoff games. The Tigers lost, so the Royals are just one game back in the AL Central. The Pirates won, so they stay close to the Cardinals. Oakland is winning late, but there still is a chance for a tie for the second wild card if Seattle wins.

Congratulations to the Royals on a roller coaster season that ends on a very high note!

September 26, 2014

Massive Tie Scenario

The Mariners and Royals won, while the Oakland Athletics lost on Thursday. That set a low probability weekend for a three-way tie in the AL Wild card:

Royals 0-3
Athletics 1-2
Mariners 3-0

If you consider each game a coin toss, there is a 3 in 512 chance of this playing out into a three-way tie. One problem for the Mariners is that the Angels need to win one more game to achieve home field advantage throughout the playoffs, since Baltimore won the season series against them. So if the Orioles win against Toronto early, the Angels have something to play for.

Kansas City holds the tie breaker with Oakland, so if their is a two-way tie at the end of the season for the wild card between those two teams, KC hosts the wild card game. Seattle also owns the tie-breaker with Oakland, so a one-game playoff for the second wild-card slot would take place in Seattle.

For tonight, the best outcomes:

  • The Royals must lose to the White Sox
  • Oakland loses to Texas
  • Seattle must beat LAnaheim

If Oakland wins, the probability of a three-way tie goes to 1 in 64. If they lose, it goes to 1 in 32. There is a one in four chance the scenario survives the evening. I don’t like those odds. A Seattle loss and an Oakland win settle the playoffs teams for the AL. There’s a 1 in 4 chance of that happening as well.

In not so massive ties, the Pirates trail the Cardinals by one game with three to play. Both teams finish on the road, the Pirates against the Reds and the Cardinals against the Diamondbacks. I’m rooting for the Diamondbacks to take two, because if that happens, every team in the majors finishes over .400. That last happened in 2007.

September 25, 2014

Rangers Walkoff

Adrian Beltre hits a walk-off home run as Oakland falls to Texas 2-1. That loss cuts the Athletics lead over the Mariners to two games with three to play. The Royals are leading the White Sox 5-3 in the top of the ninth, so they could take a one-game lead in the race for the top wild card slot in the AL.

That was Beltre’s first home run of the season in ninth inning or later, and only his second from the seventh inning on.

September 24, 2014

Massive Tie Scenario

The last massive tie scenario is on life support as the Mariners lost again. There was a bit of help for the lower three-way tie as the Athletics lost and the Royals won, but the four way tie is very shaky. It can happen with 88 wins at the most:

Tigers 1-4
Athletics 2-3
Royals 2-3
Mariners 5-0

The Mariners pretty much need to run the board for a chance of either tie happening. Right now the scenario needs a couple of days of the Tigers, Athletics and Royals losing, and the Mariners winning.

Of course, we could wind up with three division ties, which would make for a long Monday of baseball on the 29th.

September 23, 2014

Massive Tie Scenarios

It was a very mixed night for the massive tie scenarios, and in general it looks bleaker than yesterday. The Mariners decided to stop winning, and that makes the situation dire. The main scenario among the four teams competing for the AL Central title or the two AL Wild Card slots can happen with at most 89 wins.

Tigers 3-3
Athletics 3-3
Royals 4-2
Mariners 6-0

The other scenario, involving just the wild card teams and the Indians, or the three AL Central teams and the Mariners, can happen at 87 wins:

Athletics or Tigers 1-5
Royals 2-4
Mariners 4-2
Indians 5-0

You can even throw in the Yankees going 6-0 in this one. Basically, both are on life support in the Mariners don’t start winning.

For today the best results would be:

  • Kansas City and Cleveland go either way, with a bias toward Kansas City winning.
  • Seattle defeats Toronto
  • Detroit falls to the White Sox
  • Oakland loses to LAnaheim

It would not hurt if the Yankees won as well.

September 22, 2014

The Finish

The ancient Scott Atchison comes on to pitch the tenth inning for the Indians. The Royals get a lead-off single from Mike Moustakas, and Terrance Gore pinch runs. Gore steals second, Atchinson gets two outs before Nori Aoki drives him in with a single. Aoki steals second to prevent a force and put himself in scoring position. Omar Infante pops up, however, and the Indians win 4-3.

September 22, 2014

Finishing a Game

Rany on the Royals talks about the strategy Ned Yost should use in the bottom of the tenth of the August 31st game to be completed:

If Yost lets Moustakas bat against Crockett to start the ninth, with three weeks to prepare, and with a bench full of guys to play third base if the Royals extended the game, it would be as inexcusable as anything he’s done all year. Which is saying something.

The whole thing is worth the read. This will be a tough game for the Royals to win, but pulling victory from the jaws of defeat both holds off the Indians and moves Kansas City closer to Detroit in AL Central race.

September 22, 2014

Massive Tie Scenario

With one week left in the season, the AL contains the only viable massive tie scenario. There is an outside chance that Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, and San Francisco can tie for the two NL Wild Card slots, but that would mean both the Pirates and the Giants would need very bad weeks. It’s unlikely that will happen.

The four-way tie in the AL can happen at 90 wins, with the Mariners having dragged down the number of wins this weekend:

Tigers 4-3
Athletics 5-2
Royals 6-2
Mariners 7-0

With Cleveland playing the Royals four more games staring today, (actually, 3 1/20 games), it’s possible they could sneak up and force a tie at 88 wins:

Athletics 3-4
Royals 4-4
Mariners 5-2
Indians 7-0

Again, this would be less disruptive than the three-way tie between Oakland, KC and Seattle, as the four-way tie can be settled in one way, while the three-way tie takes two. The Royals and the Indians play the bottom of the tenth inning of their suspended game today, Cleveland leading 4-2 with the Royals coming up to the plate.

For today, the best outcomes would be (and I’m really only looking at the top four-way tie, since that is the most disruptive):

  • The Royals at least split with Cleveland. It would be great if the Royals could come back in the suspended game and take two on the day.
  • Seattle defeats Toronto
  • Detroit falls to the Chicago White Sox
  • Oakland defeats LAnaheim

The Mariners need to have a very good week.

September 21, 2014

Oakland Walks Off

Josh Donaldson hits a two-run home run in the bottom of the tenth and the Athletics walk off with an 8-6 win over the Phillies. They keep pace with the Royals in the AL Wild Card race, and put another game between them and the Mariners. Donaldson went 3 for 5 on the day, making up a bit for a down season.

The four-way tie in the AL now looks like this. The most wins is down to 90:

Tigers 4-3
Athletics 5-2
Royals 6-2
Mariners 7-0

The three way tie for the wild card slots is looking more likely than the four-way tie.

September 21, 2014

Playoff Game Tie-Breakers

With the Pirates versus the Brewers and Tigers versus the Royals season series over, the head-to-head tie breakers to determine home field in playoff and wild card games should be set.

  • Detroit holds the tie breaker over Kansas City and Oakland.
  • Kansas City holds the tie breaker over Oakland.
  • Seattle holds the tie breaker against Detroit, Kansas City, and Oakland.
  • Milwaukee holds the tie breaker over Pittsburgh.
  • Pittsburgh holds the tie breaker over San Francisco.
  • St. Louis holds the tie breaker over Milwaukee and Pittsburgh.
  • San Francisco holds the tie breaker over Milwaukee and St. Louis.
  • In a three-way tie between Kansas City, Oakland, and Seattle for the two wild card slots, the teams rank Seattle-KC-Oakland based on their combined head-to-head records. In a three-way tie for the two wild card slots, Seattle would host KC in game one, with the loser traveling to Oakland for game two. The winner of that game is the second wild card. One win and you’re in.
  • In a three-way tie between Detroit, Oakland, and Seattle for the two wild card slots, the teams rank Seattle-Detroit-Oakland based on their combined head-to-head records. In a three-way tie for the two wild card slots, Seattle would host Detroit in game one, with the loser traveling to Oakland for game two. The winner of that game is the second wild card.
September 21, 2014

Massive Tie Scenarios

The four-way tie possibility in the American League took a hit on Saturday as Detroit won and the three teams chasing them lost. There was plenty of room for an off day, however, so this scenario is still alive and well but the maximum number of wins falls to 91:

Tigers 5-3
Athletics 7-1
Royals 8-1
Mariners 8-0

Note that a three-way tie for the second wild card slot among the A’s, Royals, and Mariners would require a two day playoff to decide, so even if Detroit pulls away from this pack, that massive tie still remains. Cleveland is sneaking up as well, now 3 1/2 games behind the A’s, with a game almost won against the Royals.

The Indians would need to win all their games (including a sweep of the Royals) to have a shot of tying at 88 wins. The four-way tie is a little less disruptive, however, as there would be two playoff games on the same day, rather than two games over two days in the three-way tie.

Atlanta just won’t cooperate in the three-way tie in the NL, and that scenario is about to fail. There are only two ways the scenario can happen now, and the maximum is 84 wins.

Pirates 1-7
Brewers 4-3
Braves 8-0

Again, the only thing keeping this alive is that the Braves might sweep the Pirates.

The best results for today:

  • Atlanta defeats the Mets
  • Milwaukee beats Pittsburgh
  • Kansas City triumphs over Detroit
  • Seattle defeats Houston
  • Oakland against Philadelphia can go either way

It would not hurt if Cleveland won.

September 20, 2014

Tigers Win

The Royals score one in the eighth, and get the tying run to third base in the ninth, but the Tigers prevail 3-2. They now lead the Royals by 2 1/2 game, with the Royals having a loss 99% in hand. Kansas City gives the Mariners a shot to catch them for the second wild card slot this evening.

It was a game full of strategy, good plays, and a missed play that went well. In the end, I have to say I thought the bunt strategy used in the first and third innings was the wrong call, as the Royals traded a potential big inning for nothing.

September 20, 2014

Seeing Eye Ball

The Royals tie the game at one in the bottom of the fifth inning after Jarrod Dyson doubles, and Alcides Escobar hits a grounder up the middle. Ian Kinsler crossed over to the third base side of second and tried to back-hand the ball, but he did not get low enough and it rolled under his glove. It also got by Eugenio Suarez who was coming over from short, and Dyson was able to score. I thought the ball might be an infield hit, but allowing it to go to the outfield led to the run.

This is turning out to be a fascinating game.

Update: The Royals can thank Ian Kinsler for another run. With runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out in the bottom of the sixth, Omar Infante hits a line drive right at Kinsler. Ian tries to get a double play at second, but Suarez misses the throw for an error. I thought Kinsler should have held onto the ball.

Now there may be a review, as Salvador Perez did not retouch third after the catch of the line drive.

Update: The umps review the play and call Perez out. Kinsler gets the double play by making a bad play. Sometimes bad process does work.

Interestingly, there was no appeal play, so Perez was never tagged out, and there was no appeal throw to third.

The game is tied at one at the end of six innings.

Updae: Shields tires in the seventh as he gives up three hits and a walk, and the Tigers score twice to take a 3-1 lead. Quite a turn around from the Royals thinking they had a lead to the Tigers taking control.

Update: The Fox broadcast just showed there was an appeal play before Bad Ausmus asked for a review.

Update: Okay, they just said that the play was not reviewable, and the umpire was told by New York that the play was not reviewable. He then got together with the other umps and reversed the ball based on the conference. The screen in centerfield, however, showed the replay, so the umpires could see for themselves that Perez never touched the bag. They got the call right, but unless another ump had said he saw the play before they showed the tape, I’m not sure this was Kosher.

September 20, 2014

Bunting Again

In the bottom of the third, the Royals start off with two singles to put runners on first and second. Once again, Nori Aoki sacrifices. This time, Josh Willingham pops up the first pitch for the second out, failing once again to drive in the runner from third with less than two out. Once again, Alex Gordon strikes out. Twice the Royals played for one run, and twice they failed to score. There is no score after three innings.

Aoki was looking like he might be trying to fool the defense the way he was holding the bat. I was hoping he’d pull the bat back and slap at the ball, but he laid down the bunt.

Update: The Tigers take the lead using power, as Torii Hunter hits a home run in the top of the fourth inning. Detroit leads Kansas City 1-0.

September 20, 2014 September 20, 2014

Massive Tie Scenarios

The four-way tie among the AL Central and Wild Card contenders had a decent night, with the Tigers pounding the Royals, the Mariners beating Houston big, and the Athletics winning a low scoring game against the Phillies. The four-way tie remains possible at 92 wins:

Tigers 7-2
Athletics 8-1
Royals 9-1
Mariners 9-0

As long as Kansas City doesn’t get swept by the Tigers, this scenario should hold up into early next week. If a three-way tie for the two wild card slots emerge from this, that’s very good as well.

Unfortunately, the three-way tie for the second wild card slot in the NL keeps falling apart. The Pirates beat the Brewers and the Braves lost, so Atlanta is on the edge of elimination. The tie only works at 85 wins:

Pirates 2-7
Brewers 6-2
Braves 9-0

The Brewers and Braves need to win all six remaining games with the Pirates. I suspect the way these teams are playing that we have very little time left for this scenario to live.

A three way tie between the Pirates, Giants, and one or both of their division winners doesn’t do much, since the wild card seeding would be determined by records after the divisions were settled.

For today, the best results would be:

  • Kansas City defeats Detroit
  • Oakland defeats Philadelphia
  • Milwaukee beats Pittsburgh
  • Atlanta wins over the Mets
  • Seattle downs Houston
September 19, 2014

Massive Tie Scenarios

The four-way race in the American League between the AL Central contenders and the contenders for the two wild card slots continues to be fascinating. The Athletics fell to the Rangers while the Mariners beat the Angels, putting the four teams two games apart. The tie can still happen at 92 wins:

Tigers 8-2
Royals 9-2
Athletics 9-1
Mariners 10-0

Detroit and Kansas City play a three-game set this weekend, and the best result would be the Royals taking two of three from the Tigers. The Royals have a loss in hand with the suspended game against Cleveland, so KC taking two of three basically puts them in a tie with Detroit. Oakland has gone from the best team in the AL to barely holding on to the second wild card slot.

In the NL, the Brewers lost to the Cardinals and the Pirates defeated the Red Sox, so the only viable tie is the three-way tie for the second wild card slot. It’s only viable because the Pirates face the Brewers and Braves over the next seven games:

Pirates 4-6
Brewers 7-2
Braves 10-0

For this to work at 86 games, the Brewers need to take two of three games this weekend from Pittsburgh, then the Braves need to sweep the Pirates. This one is definitely on life support.

The best outcomes for today:

  • Milwaukee defeats Pittsburgh
  • Atlanta beats the Mets
  • Kansas City defeats Detroit
  • Seattle wins over Houston
  • Oakland beats Philadelphia

With all four AL teams able to tie with great records, there’s a lot of room for teams to lose games and still tie. If the Pirates take two from the Brewers and Atlanta loses another game this weekend, the NL race is pretty much over.

September 18, 2014

Massive Tie Scenarios

With the Mariners losing Wednesday night, the most wins for a four-way tie in the AL drops to 92, but the scenario is still alive and kicking as both Detroit and Oakland lost, while the Royals won to tie the Athletics:

Tigers 8-2
Athletics 9-2
Royals 9-2
Mariners 11-0

We have a three-way tie in the loss column, now the Mariners just need to catch up.

The three-way tie for the second wild card saw Atlanta gain on the Brewers, and the most wins stay at 86:

Pirates 5-6
Brewers 7-3
Braves 10-0

This still works as the Pirates start a seven-game stretch against the Brewers and Braves on Friday. Both teams have the opportunity to pin some losses on the Pirates.

The other two ties became long-shots as the Brewers lost:

Giants 5-5
Pirates 8-3
Brewers 10-0

And

Cardinals 5-5
Giants 5-5
Pirates 8-3
Brewers 10-0

A three-way tie between the Cardinals, Giants, and Pirates is less interesting, since there is no extra game played if two teams are tied for the first wild card slot. There would be a playoff for the NL Central title, then the loser automatically goes to the wild card game.

The best results for today:

  • Oakland falls to Texas
  • Pittsburgh can go either way against Boston
  • Milwaukee beats St. Louis
  • Seattle defeats LAnaheim
September 17, 2014

Massive Tie Scenarios

It was a good night for the four-way tie scenario in the AL involving the AL Central contenders and the two wild card slots. The Mariners, who trail the pack, gained on all three of the teams ahead of them. That keeps the highest number of wins for a tie at 93:

Tigers 9-2
Athletics 10-2
Royals 11-1
Mariners 12-0

The Royals need to take two of three from the Tigers to make this scenario work, but given that all the teams can play well and tie, there are a high number of combinations that lead to this working.

In the NL, the three-way scenario involving the Braves keeps fading. It is down to 86 wins as Atlanta lost and the Pirates and Brewers won:

Pirates 6-6
Brewers 7-4
Braves 11-0

When the lead team needs to play .500 or below, the scenario is on life support.

The other three-way tie saw all three teams win and stays at 89 wins:

Giants 6-5
Pirates 9-3
Brewers 10-1

It’s still a long shot. However, St. Louis lost on Tuesday, and they are also 83-68, same as the Giants. The four way tie works also:

Cardinals 6-5
Giants 6-5
Pirates 9-3
Brewers 10-1

That would cause a two-day playoff for the NL Central, then a two-day playoff for the two wild card slots.

For today, the best results would be:

  • San Francisco loses to Colorado
  • Pittsburgh against Boston can go either way, with a bias toward Pittsburgh winning
  • Atlanta defeats Washington
  • Kansas City beats the Chicago White Sox
  • Detroit falls to Minnesota
  • Milwaukee defeats St. Louis. If this happens, the four-way NL scenario will become the new dominat one.
  • Seattle beat LAnaheim
  • Oakland against Texas can go either way, with a bias toward Oakland losing.

This turned out to be a pretty good year for the massive tie scenarios.

September 16, 2014

Massive Tie Scenarios

The four-way tie possibility in the American League took a hit Monday night as the Mariners fell to the Angels. Things could have been worse, however, but the Royals rallied late to beat the White Sox 4-3. The most wins for a four-way tie between the AL Central leaders and the teams vying for the wild card drops to 93. The teams could finish like this:

Tigers 9-3
Athletics 10-3
Royals 11-2
Mariners 13-0

The Royals and Tigers play three, which are the only head-to-head match-ups left. Note that the Royals almost have a loss, since they need to finish a suspended game with Cleveland, and they are down two runs in that one.

In the NL, the Braves loss makes once scenario less likely, but the Giants loss bring in another one. The Pirates, Brewers, and Braves can tie for the second wild card slot at 87 wins:

Pirates 8-5
Brewers 9-3
Braves 12-0

The Braves will pretty much need to sweep the four games from the Pirates, then the Pirates need to take 2 of three from Milwaukee. Atlanta looks like a team in disarray, however. The Giants, Pirates, and Brewers, however, are in a closer race and can tie at 89 wins:

Giants 7-5
Pirates 10-3
Brewers 11-1

The Brewers can take two of three from the Pirates, or sweep the Pirates, and this scenario is still possible.

For today, the best results are:

  • Pittsburgh falls to Boston
  • Atlanta defeats Washington
  • Kansas City beat the Chicago White Sox
  • Detroit loses to Minnesota
  • Milwaukee beats St. Louis
  • San Francisco falls to Arizona
  • Seattle defeats LAnaheim
  • Oakland loses to Texas

A three-way tie between Detroit, Kansas City, and Oakland would still be fun. That may be the most likely way to get a massive tie.

September 14, 2014

Massive Tie Scenarios

With all the teams involved in massive ties finished for the day, here are the updates of the races. The four-way tie in the AL now looks like this:

Tigers 11-2
Athletics 11-2
Royals 13-1
Mariners 14-0

The Royals would need to take two of three from the Tigers, otherwise, the teams are clear of each other. Nothing helped the tie scenario today, but there’s plenty of room for teams to have a few losses.

The NL seems to be losing the Braves from the three team race:

Pirates 8-5
Brewers 9-3
Braves 12-1

This scenario is down to 87 wins. the Braves would need to take four from the Pirates, while the Pirates take two of three from the Brewers. Or, the Braves could go 3-1 against the Pirates, and the Pirates, could lose two of three to the Brewers.

For Monday, the best results would be:

  • Atlanta beats Washington
  • Kansas City defeats the Chicago White Sox
  • Detroit loses to Minnesota
  • Seattle wins over LAnaheim
September 14, 2014

142 Game Staff

The Royals lost to the Red Sox on Sunday 8-4, capping a week in which they went 2-5. Kansas City had a very good bullpen due to keeping them out of the game as much as possible, as they pitch about 31% of the Royals innings this season. This week, however, they pitched 23 of 61 innings, nearly 38%. Twice this week starters failed to get out of the third inning, and two other times they did not get out of the sixth. While the Royals did a great job of conserving the relievers, the starters may now be wearing down. In the end, Kansas City may wish the season was 20 games shorter.

It also goes to show that teams having down years can still be dangerous. The Red Sox can still play like winners once in a while.

Correction: Royals lost to the Red Sox.

September 14, 2014

Massive Tie Scenarios

Last two days clarified the tie scenarios a great deal. With the Yankees losing two of three to Baltimore and Detroit taking the first two games of the series with Cleveland, the six-way tie in the American League looks dead. The three-way tie in the NL for the second wild card slot is still alive but not doing well. The four-way tie in the AL for the two wild card slots and the AL Central, however, is looking very good. Three teams are tied in the loss column, and the Mariners are just one loss off the pace. The can happen at 94 wins:

Tigers 12-2
Athletics 12-2
Royals 13-2
Mariners 14-1

This Seattle can beat the A’s today, and the Royals can take two of three from the Tigers, and there are still losses to spare. This tie would result in a one-game playoff for the AL Central, then a two-game playoff for the two-wild card slots.

In the NL, the three-way tie for the second wild card slot can happen at 88 wins:

Pirates 10-4
Brewers 11-2
Braves 13-1

Atlanta would take three of four from the Pirates, and Pittsburgh would take two of three from the Brewers. My gut tells me that one of the three teams will get hot and take control of the race. Given that both trailing teams play the Pirates, however, they have a chance to catch up.

For today, the best results to move the scenarios forward (note that this isn’t to get the highest number of wins, but to get the teams closer to a tie):

  • Detroit loses to Cleveland
  • Pittsburgh falls to the Chicago Cubs
  • Kansas City loses to Boston
  • Milwaukee defeats Cincinnati
  • Atlanta beats Texas
  • Seattle defeats Oakland

Note that things play out like this today, the four AL teams would be tied in the all freaking important loss column (AFILC).

September 12, 2014

Massive Tie Scenario

Thursday was a perfect night for the massive tie scenarios. In addition, the Cardinals lost, which eventually may lead to a four-way tie scenario. For the three-way tie between the Pirates, Brewers, and Braves, the most wins for that tie remain at 89:

Pirates 12-4
Brewers 13-2
Braves 14-2

For them to reach the tie at this level, the Pirates must split four games with the Braves, then the three-game series between Pittsburgh and Milwaukee needs to go 2-1 in either direction.

The American League saw both the Yankees and Indians gain on the Royals, and the highest number of wins for the six way tie remains at 91.

Royals 11-6
Tigers 11-5
Mariners 12-5
Blue Jays 15-2
Indians 15-2
Yankees 16-2

The Yankees start a four-game series with the red hot Orioles, playing two Friday night. I suspect at some point two of the bottom three teams are going to fall out of the race, but so far, they are defying my expectations. Cleveland opens a big weekend series against Detroit, which gives the Indians a huge chance to catch up in the race.

The four-way AL tie scenario also did well, with both Oakland and Kansas city losing. That remains possible at 95 wins.

Athletics 14-2
Royals 15-2
Tigers 15-1
Mariners 16-1

The would require the Tigers to take two of three from the Royals, and the Mariners to take 2 of three from Oakland.

For Friday , here are the best results:

  • New York sweeps a day-night double header from Baltimore
  • Pittsburgh can go either way against the Chicago Cubs
  • Toronto defeats Tampa Bay
  • Detroit and Cleveland can go either way, depending on which tie scenario you prefer. I’d like to see Detroit lose so the six-way is helped, but their winning is probably better for the more likely four-way.
  • Atlanta beats Texas
  • Kansas City falls to Boston
  • Milwaukee defeats Cincinnati
  • Seattle and Oakland can go either way, depending on which tie scenario you prefer. It would probably be good for both tie scenarios if the Mariners took two of three from Oakland this weekend.

I will not be updating tomorrow, as we have a funeral to attend.

September 11, 2014 September 11, 2014

Massive Tie Scenarios

It was a very good night for the massive tie scenarios. All three teams vying for the second NL Wild Card slot won, so the tie there remains at 89 wins:

Pirates 13-4
Brewers 14-2
Braves 14-2

In this scenario, the Braves and Pirates split four games, and the Brewers take two of three from the Pirates.

The six-way AL tie among the AL Central contenders and the contenders for the second AL Wild Card slot stays alive at 91 wins, as the bottom three teams gained some ground:

Royals 11-7
Tigers 11-5
Mariners 12-5
Blue Jays 15-2
Indians 17-2
Yankees 17-2

The Indians can really use a sweep today. They are the team with the most control over this scenario, as they have series left with both the Tigers and Royals. That gives them the chance to bring those two teams back to the pack.

The four-way tie for two wild card slots and the AL Central title is good at 95 wins, as three of those four teams lost Wednesday night:

Athletics 14-3
Royals 15-3
Tigers 15-1
Mariners 16-1

In this scenario, the Tigers can sweep three from the Royals, and the Mariners can sweep three from Oakland. I’d love to see these teams go into the final weekend with this type of spread, since not every team would need to sweep or be swept for a tie to occur.

The best results for today:

  • Cleveland sweeps a double header from Minnesota
  • Oakland falls to the Chicago White Sox
  • New York defeats Tampa Bay
  • Pittsburgh loses to Philadelphia
  • Kansas City falls to Boston
  • Milwaukee wins over Miami

This weekend, Cleveland at Detroit and Oakland at Seattle will play huge roles in keeping these ties alive.

September 10, 2014

Massive Tie Scenarios

All three competitors for the second NL Wild Card lost Tuesday night. Given that they play each other head-to-head, that means the maximum number of wins for a three-way tie drops to 89:

Pirates 14-4
Brewers 15-2
Braves 15-2

With Toronto losing and Kansas City and Seattle losing, the six-way tie in the AL stays alive at 91 wins. The order changes a little as Detroit now controls the second wild card slot:

Royals 12-7
Tigers 11-6
Mariners 12-6
Blue Jays 16-2
Indians 17-2
Yankees 18-2

The Indians and Yankees need to start winning to keep this scenario alive.

The four-way tie for two wild cards and the AL Central is still strong at 95 wins, even though Oakland won last night.

Athletics 14-4
Royals 16-3
Tigers 15-2
Mariners 16-2

For today, here are the best results:

  • Atlanta defeats Washington
  • Cleveland beats Minnesota
  • New York bests Tampa Bay
  • Pittsburgh loses to Philadelphia
  • Toronto defeats the Chicago Cubs
  • Kansas City takes one from Detroit
  • Oakland loses to the Chicago White Sox
  • Milwaukee beats Miami*
  • Seattle can go either way against Houston with a bias toward the Mariners winning the game.
  • *Winning four of their last five games against Atlanta and Milwaukee, the Marlins are on the edge of creating a four-way tie scenario for the second NL Wild Card. However, they are one-game below .500 at the moment. If they win tonight, they’ll join the scenario tomorrow.