George Kirby showed on Friday night why he will likely hold the mantle of Mariners ace as he helps the team beat the Red Sox 1-0. Kirby lasted six and two thirds innings, allowing two hits, two walks, and no runs. He needed to pitch that well as Nick Pivetta of the Red Sox walked none and struck out ten in six innings, but allowed the only run on a J.P. Crawford homer.
The two walks were unusual for Kirby, as he averages 1.2 BB per 9 IP in his career.
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top picks:
Bichette and Littell make a good combination, as Little is hittable but doesn’t give up a lot of walks. Gurriel owns four hits in his first ten PA of the season.
Here are the NN picks:
The NN puts the most weight on the three season performance of the hitter, and Arraez owns a .310 hit average since the start of 2022. His 0 for 11 PA top start the season is not enough to drag him out of the top slot.
Bichette is the consensus first pick with Diaz the consensus double down choice.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Bryce Harper of the Phillies makes his way back into the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings as he draws a walk in a 9-3 win by the Braves. His rise has more to do with Aaron Judge of the Yankees going 0 for 5 in a 7-1 win over the Astros. In that game, Yordan Alvarez of Houston hung on to the number one spot with a walk in five trips to the plate, while Juan Soto of the Yankees, in the number two slot, closed the gap with a three for four game, including a double. The two are now separated by less than three points.
Mookie Betts posted his fourth straight game score of at least 60 as he homers and walks in a 6-3 win over the Cardinals. The give Betts three home runs in four games. Yandy Diaz of the Rays ranks fourth. He posted a two for five in an 8-2 win over the Blue Jays.
The best game score of the day belonged to the late free agent acquisition, Matt Chapman of the Giants. Chapman goes three for five with a home run and a double in the 8-3 win over the Padres. Chapman saw his power fade the last three years despite still being in his prime. The Giants would love to see a high slugging percentage from him this season.
The Day by Day Database is up to date.
Brandon Lowe of the Rays goes deep with the bases loaded in the bottom of the third inning to give the Rays a 4-1 lead over the Blue Jays. He came into the game with three career grand slams, and hitting .308/.349/.590 with the bases loaded. He now has 35 RBI in 42 bases loaded plate appearances.
The Arizona Diamondbacks and pitcher Jordan Montgomery made their deal official. It’s a one-year, $25 million contract, but:
The contract includes a vesting option for 2025.
If Montgomery makes at least 10 starts this season, the option would become guaranteed at $20 million and the left-hander also would gain the right to opt out. The option price would escalate to $22.5 million if he makes 18 starts and to $25 million if he makes 23 starts — a figure he has reached in three straight seasons.
Chron.com
Montgomery average 3 1/3 WAR over the last three seasons, and the Diamondbacks are paying him for a bit over two in 2024. This is not one of free agency’s finest moments. I find it very strange that some team didn’t offer him $35 million for one year. It seems he would be worth it. Of course, we don’t know what kind of deals he turned down, either.
After Phillies starter Zack Wheeler throws six shutout innings against the Braves, the Philadelphia bullpen blows a 2-0 lead, giving up nine runs in two innings. Matt Olson, celebrating his 30th birthday, starts the top of the eighth inning with his second double of the game, and finishes the seventh run frame with a bases loaded third double of the game. The Braves now lead 9-2 and Phillies fans are leaving the park in disappointment.
Update: The Braves win 9-3.
Brandon Marsh of the Phillies breaks up a pitching duel with the Braves with a two-run homer to left-center, giving the home town team a 2-0 lead. Atlanta starter Spencer Strider walked one and struck out seven through the first 4 1/3 innings, but Bryson Stott put the bat on the ball to single to start the inning, the Marsh got all of a ball with one out. The Phillies fans are going wild as there is no love lost between these teams.
The Brewers beat the Mets 3-1 at Citi Field on opening day, holding the Mets to one hit, a solo home run by Starling Marte. The Mets struck out ten times, which limited their opportunities for hits, but the Brewers made some nice defensive plays, too.
In the ninth, second baseman Brice Turang, in earlier as a pinch hitter, ranged to the shortstop side of second to stop a Harrison Bader grounder. He threw over his body to first, where Rhys Hoskins made a spectacular stretch and catch for the out. Then Blake Perkins made a nice running catch on a Brandon Nimmo fly to left center. Finally, Francisco Lindor hits the ball up the middle, but Willy Adames is standing right where the ball is hit for the out.
Freddy Peralta, getting the opening day start, shone with one walk and eight strikeouts in six innings. He’s the new ace of the Milwaukee rotation, and certainly performed up to that moniker today.
Starling Marte picks up the first Mets hit of the year as he hit a line drive home run to left, right off the home run line on the fence. Marte’s power fell off over 140 points last season versus 2022, so getting his power back would be a great positive for the Mets. They lead the Brewers 1-0 in the bottom of the second inning.
Update: Christian Yelich of the Brewers homers to tie the game in the top of the fourth inning. Yelich’s power started to return last season, and the Brewers would love to see him return to a .500 slugger.
Jackson Chourio, the 20-year-old Brewers phenom, leads off and walks in his first MLB plate appearance. He posted a .373 OBP in spring training. He also steals his first base. The Brewers and Mets are scoreless in the top of the first inning as baseball opens in New York City.
Update: Chourio does not score as Rhys Hoskins hits into a double play on a less than hard it ball to third base. It’s clear that Hoskins has very little speed after his injury last year. No score going to the bottom of the first inning.
The teams projected to be the two best in the NL East meet in Philadelphia as the Braves send Spencer Strider against the Phillies and Zack Wheeler. Since the start of the 2022 season, Strider owns the highest K per 9 among pitchers with 300 innings. His 13.66 K/9 is well ahead of second place Blake Snell who comes in at 11.83. Strider also boasts low walk and home run rates in that time. Wheeler brings a long and successful history against the Braves to the game. In 27 starts he went 12-7 with a 3.18 ERA.
The Yankees and Astros continue their series in Houston with Carlos Rodon taking on Cristian Javier. Injuries took their toll on all of Rodon’s three true outcomes in 2023. This bring, only his ability to prevent walks seemed to return. The Astros’ offense is a tough test for any pitcher, so a good outing today will be an excellent sign for the starter. Javier also saw all his three-true outcomes degrade in 2023 compared to 2022. His ERA was more in line with his first two seasons than his excellent 2022, so maybe the league adjusted to whatever changes he made to show an improvement.
Finally, Nick Pivetta and the Red Sox face George Kirby and the Mariners. Pivetta, for his career owns an ERA 0.8 runs higher than his xFIP. Is it bad luck or bad defense? He has performed poorly with men on base through his career, especially when it comes to allowing extra-base hits. Kirby’s strength comes from his extreme ability to limit walks, just 1.15 per 9 IP in his short career.
Enjoy!
Bill Shaikin discusses Rob Manfred’s success story, bringing a new generation into a love of the game.
A generation that was supposed to have dismissed baseball as irreparably slow and boring and was supposed to have been lost to esports and screens of all sorts has found its way back to baseball.
Half of MLB’s television viewers last year were younger than 44, according to Playfly Insights. The median age of an MLB ticket buyer has fallen from 51 in 2019 to 45 today, according to the league.
In that time, the average age of a new fan engaging with the league’s data base — by buying a ticket or a player jersey, for instance, or setting up a streaming account — has dropped from 43 to 36.
Baseball isn’t dying, but it could have been. Its revival required a game plan.
MSN.com
Fans in general don’t like Manfred, and much of that comes from often presenting himself poorly in public. Many feel the commissioner should be looking out for the fans, and often Manfred does not express that aspect of his job. I hope I’m still here in 2050 to see the judgement of history on him, and I suspect he might go down as baseball most effective commissioner.
Once more fascinating item from the article:
Nonetheless, he agrees the work of cultivating and maintaining a younger audience is far from done. On the field, the league’s focus is in finding ways to cut down on strikeouts — pitching to contact reduces the time of an at-bat; more balls in play means more action, and more flashes of the athleticism that lights up social media.
“That’s the way baseball was originally conceived: the hitter versus the defense, not the hitter versus the pitcher,” Sword said.
That’s really tough to do. Hitters and pitchers keep getting stronger. Here’s a radical idea: ban the fastball and require hitters to swing a bat 36 ounces as a minimum. Any pitch over 92 MPH is a ball if taken. I know the physics show that the weight of the bat doesn’t matter that much, but a combination of slower pitches and slower bats should mean fewer home runs, but more balls in play. MLB would probably want to bring this down slowly so as not to render a generation of pitchers ineffective. Manfred does like to use the minors to run multiple tests of changes, so if something like this was brought to the majors, it would have some level of success in professional baseball.
The Rangers beat the Cubs 4-3 in ten innings. Jonah Heim of Texas turned out to be both the cause and resolution of the additional frame:
With the score knotted at 2, the Cubs had Michael Busch on second and Nico Hoerner on first with two outs. Both players had reached base on back-to-back walks by Texas closer Jose Leclerc.
Chicago, piloted by new skipper Craig Counsell, sent pinch hitter Miles Mastrobuoni to the plate. Mastrobuoni swung at an 0-1 Leclerc changeup well below the strike zone. The ball skittered away from Heim, who thought the pitch had made contact with the bat. He lobbied plate umpire Chad Fairchild for a foul ball to no avail.
While Heim was engaged with Fairchild, Busch saw that Heim had not retrieved the ball, which lay about 15 feet away, and scored from second on what was scored as a wild pitch. Heim compounded the mistake with an errant throw to Leclerc, allowing Hoerner to advance to third.
ESPN.com
This play happens every once in a while, even to veteran players. The fielder is so upset at the missed call that he argues rather than continuing the play. Note that the replay appeared to show it was a foul ball. In the tenth, Heim singles home the winning run, so all is forgiven.
Tyler O’Neill of the Red Sox set a record with his fifth straight home run on Opening Day. The shot in the eighth inning gave the Red Sox the lead as they beat the Mariners 6-4.
The Diamondbacks set a record as well as they pounded the Rockies 16-1. They scored 14 runs in the third inning, the most scored in an inning on opening day in the modern era:
Maybe most improbably, Arizona didn’t hit a homer during the inning. Ketel Marte, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Christian Walker, Gabriel Moreno and Geraldo Perdomo all had two hits. Corbin Carroll walked twice. Blaze Alexander had his first big league hit with a single up the middle that scored the 14th run.
The outburst broke franchise records for most hits, runs and batters in an inning. It took 34 minutes for the Rockies to get three outs. The D-backs led 16-1 after three innings.
ESPN.com
Finally, Athletics fans protested outside the stadium during opening night as the team hosted the Guardians. They did not miss anything, as Cleveland took the game 8-0. David Fry had the big night with the bat, going three for four with a double for the Guardians, while Shane Bieber walked one and struck out eleven in six innings of work.
Opening Day mixed up the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings a bit, with Yandy Diaz of the Rays moving into the fourth slot as the yet to play Bryce Harper of the Phillies falls to sixth. Diaz posted a three for four with a home run as provided the little offense the Rays generated.
Yordan Alvarez of the Astros remains in first place after a two for five opening, with Juan Soto of the Yankees in second as he went one for three with two walks. He teammate, Aaron Judge, drops to fifth place after a double, walk, and a GDP.
Mookie Betts of the Dodgers continued his hot start with a home run and two walks. He posted game score of at least 60 in all three games and now ranks third on the list.
The best game score of the day belonged to Nick Martini of the Reds, who hit two home runs and drove in five runs in a win over the Nationals. That gave him a game score of 75. Martini spent his career as a part-time player who always did a good job of getting on base. With the move to the Reds last season, his power surged, and so far, he carried that over into 2024.
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top picks:
Everyone is going to be pretty close for 2024, as the current MLB hit average is still the best guess for everyone. So this list is based mostly on the two previous seasons and a little bit of 2024. After an 0 for 6 on opening day, Arraez is due.
Here are the NN picks:
Keep your eye on Naylor this year as a Beat the Streak regular. He plays at the peak seasonal age of 27, and last year he brought a low K rate and a low walk rate even lower while increasing his BABIP. Like Arraez, he puts the ball in play, and last year lots of good things happened.
Note that with very little data for 2024, the probabilities are going to be low. As the best hitters of the year shake out, you’ll see those rise.
Arraez stands as the agreed top pick. Bichette comes in as the consensus double down choice.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
The Day by Day Database is up to date.
Mitch Keller of the Pirates allows the Marlins five runs in 5 2/3 innings, but the Pittsburgh pen pitches near perfectly for 6 1/3 innings as the Pirates take the game 6-5 in twelve innings.. The relievers allowed one hit and two walks.
Luis Arraez of the Marlins, who flirted with .400 in 2023, went 0 for 6.
Three baseball sons on the Blue Jays post good games as Toronto defeats the Rays 8-2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up just one hit in five at bats, but the one hit left the park. Bo Bichette doubled, singled and walked, driving in two runs and scoring one. Cavan Biggio got his starting job back this year. He homered and walked twice, scoring twice.
These are the three players that were supposed to be at the heart of the Blue Jays resurgence, and today they delivered.
Pablo Lopez of the Twins works efficiently against the Royals and lasts seven innings in a 4-1 Minnesota win. He threw just 84 pitches, and if this were not early in the season he might have gone the distance. Lopez recorded just one complete game in his career.
The Tigers beat the White Sox 1-0, Tarik Skubal of Detroit and Garrett Crochet of Chicago both going six innings. Neither walked a batter, Skubal striking out six, Crochet eight. The only blemish against Crochet came on a sacrifice fly by Andy Ibanez.
The bullpens shone as well, with the Tigers relievers not allowing a hit, while the White Sox pen allowed one hit and one walk.
The Dodgers 1-2-3 of Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman lit up the Cardinals for five hits, three extra-base hits, four walks, six runs, and four RBI. After three games, Betts is hitting .636/.733/1.273.
The Dodgers lineup is not as deep as in the recent past, but with those three at the top they may not need to be.
Paul Goldschmidt collected all three of the Cardinals hits, homering for the team’s only run.
The Padres beat the Giants 6-4 to win their San Diego opener. They continue to do damage with singles. Sixteen of their 21 hits in South Korea went for singles, and eight of nine today. They are batting .280 as a team with a .364 slugging percentage. It’s working, however, as they own a 2-1 record.
Juan Soto figures prominently in the Yankees 5-4 win over the Astros. He draws two walks, singled in the Yankees first run, and made a great throw from rightfield in the bottom on the ninth to cut down the tying run at the plate. The Yankees collected nine walks to go with eight hits, and might have scored even more if they didn’t ground into three double plays. Oswaldo Cabrera, starting for an injured DJ LeMahieu and batting ninth, singled and homered, his shot tying the game at four.
Nick Martini of the Reds blasts two home runs and drives in five runs from the eighth slot. That helps Cincinnati down Washington 8-3. The bottom of the Reds order, the six through nine hitters reached base eight times and drove in all eight runs.
Corbin Burnes of the Orioles pitched six innings against the Angels, striking out eleven and allowing just one hit, a home run by Mike Trout. Meanwhile, the Orioles hitters generated 10 hits and drew six walks on their way to an 11-3 win at home on opening day. Catcher Adley Rutschman led the offense with two hits and a walk.
Framber Valdez of the Astros keeps getting in and out of trouble against the Yankees. He induced the double play ground balls through four innings. Twice they came with the bases loaded and one out to end big threats. The Houston leads New York 4-0 in the middle of the fourth inning.
Update: Juan Soto breaks the bases loaded double play streak with an RBI single in the top of the fifth inning. That cuts the Astros lead to 4-1.
Logan Webb retired the first nine Padres he faced as the Padres play in San Diego for the first time this season. He struck out four, throwing 44 pitches through three innings. The Giants lead 1-0 as East Longmeadow’s own Nick Ahmed delivered an RBI double.
Update: Xander Bogaerts singles leading off the fourth inning to break up the perfect game.
The Astros load the bases with two out in the bottom of the first, and Chas McCormick delivers a single on a 3-2 pitch to drive in two runs Yainer Diaz follows with a single and Houston leads the Yankees 3-0.
After striking out the first two Angels, Corbin Burnes gets burned by Mike Trout, who takes him out of the park in center for a 1-0 Angels lead over the Orioles after half an inning. Trout didn’t pull the pitch, otherwise it might have been caught in the deeper Orioles leftfield.
The Stateside Season is underway.
Update: The Orioles load the bases with no one out in the bottom of the first, and score two runs on a ground out and a single to lead the Angels 2-1 at the end of one.
Update: Patrick Sandoval of the Angels exits with two out in the second inning, having allowed five runs so far. The Orioles are up 5-1.