March 11, 2012

Leveraging Lineups

Mitchel Litchman looks at leveraging walks and speed by placing batters at the top or bottom of the order and finds it doesn’t make that much difference, maybe eight runs a year. Now, that is almost one win, but it’s not a huge effect.

You get the best player you can and then you construct the best lineup from what you have. It really doesn’t matter whether you have a “true leadoff hitter” or a “true cleanup hitter” or not. It doesn’t matter at all.

The fly in the ointment of this argument, however, is the players themselves. If hitters believed the just needed to hit to their greatest potential no matter where they bat, everything would be fine. They believe, however, that placement in the lineup changes the approach to hitting.

Ego also plays a role. Someone who sees himself as a middle of the order hitter might not like batting seventh or eighth. Some speedster who should be batting ninth due to a low OBP may be disappointed if he’s not leading off.

So to me, a true “X hitter” is someone who both fits the statistical profile of the slot, and everyone else sees him as the best fit for the slot. That allows you to move the “false” hitter out of the slot without hurting his feelings.

Sabermetrics made great strides in the front offices and even the field manager’s seat. The next frontier is the players themselves. We’ve seen some headway with the pitchers. Now we need to convince the batters that how they hit is much more important than where they hit in the lineup.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *