March 7, 2012

Objective PMR, Pitchers

2 Replies

The series on objective probabilistic model of range (PMR) continues by looking at pitchers. Like catchers, range is a small component of a pitcher’s defensive value. I’ll show teams as a whole at the position, plus individuals who were on the field for 300 balls in play. First the teams:

Objective PMR, team pitchers, 2011. Model built on data from 2005-2010, visiting teams only.
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs Actual DER Predicted DER Index
SDN 3083 217 173.1 0.070 0.056 125.4
CLE 3389 200 166.5 0.059 0.049 120.1
LAN 2666 195 163.9 0.073 0.061 118.9
ARI 2960 183 158.3 0.062 0.053 115.6
COL 3053 213 187.4 0.070 0.061 113.7
NYN 3089 224 199.9 0.073 0.065 112.1
BAL 3180 189 169.7 0.059 0.053 111.4
ATL 2960 214 195.1 0.072 0.066 109.7
TOR 3106 173 160.9 0.056 0.052 107.5
MIL 2938 188 175.8 0.064 0.060 107.0
KCA 3241 192 181.6 0.059 0.056 105.7
OAK 3163 167 159.8 0.053 0.051 104.5
TBA 3010 153 146.6 0.051 0.049 104.3
SFN 1447 91 87.9 0.063 0.061 103.5
CHA 3292 190 184.2 0.058 0.056 103.2
SEA 3408 170 165.3 0.050 0.049 102.8
FLO 3114 179 178.4 0.057 0.057 100.3
ANA 3147 166 168.6 0.053 0.054 98.5
CHN 3002 167 172.2 0.056 0.057 97.0
SLN 3192 178 186.4 0.056 0.058 95.5
PIT 1587 90 94.6 0.057 0.060 95.2
BOS 2956 134 141.0 0.045 0.048 95.1
DET 3346 149 157.7 0.045 0.047 94.5
PHI 3053 169 179.0 0.055 0.059 94.4
TEX 3166 153 162.6 0.048 0.051 94.1
CIN 3046 160 180.7 0.053 0.059 88.5
HOU 2882 164 186.5 0.057 0.065 88.0
NYA 3251 163 186.4 0.050 0.057 87.5
MIN 2983 166 190.7 0.056 0.064 87.0
WAS 3085 172 200.5 0.056 0.065 85.8

It’s tough to get a ball through the Padres mound.

The individuals:

Objective PMR, individual pitchers, 2011. Model built on data from 2005-2010, visiting teams only. 300 balls in play, minimum.
Fielder In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs Actual DER Predicted DER Index
R.A. Dickey 452 52 29.5 0.115 0.065 176.1
Tim Stauffer 453 45 25.8 0.099 0.057 174.6
Jeremy Guthrie 446 35 21.6 0.078 0.048 162.2
Ryan Dempster 439 38 24.1 0.087 0.055 157.9
Josh Tomlin 382 26 17.0 0.068 0.045 152.6
Hiroki Kuroda 436 38 26.3 0.087 0.060 144.7
Doug Fister 566 37 25.9 0.065 0.046 142.8
Livan Hernandez 407 35 24.9 0.086 0.061 140.3
Jake Westbrook 476 41 29.2 0.086 0.061 140.2
Justin Verlander 495 30 21.4 0.061 0.043 140.0
Jair Jurrjens 300 27 19.4 0.090 0.065 139.3
Jhoulys Chacin 392 37 26.9 0.094 0.069 137.7
Dustin Moseley 313 24 17.5 0.077 0.056 137.0
Jeff Niemann 317 22 16.1 0.069 0.051 136.8
Clayton Kershaw 355 30 22.0 0.085 0.062 136.5
Mat Latos 375 26 19.3 0.069 0.052 134.5
Jonathon Niese 375 36 27.8 0.096 0.074 129.6
Bruce Chen 322 24 18.5 0.075 0.058 129.5
Josh Collmenter 313 18 14.2 0.058 0.045 126.5
Matt Harrison 418 31 25.0 0.074 0.060 124.0
Randy Wolf 456 30 24.3 0.066 0.053 123.3
Dan Haren 512 32 26.0 0.063 0.051 123.2
Bronson Arroyo 476 32 26.0 0.067 0.055 122.8
Joe Saunders 474 35 28.7 0.074 0.060 122.1
Ricky Romero 432 35 28.7 0.081 0.066 122.0
Michael Pineda 352 18 14.8 0.051 0.042 121.6
Shaun Marcum 378 25 20.8 0.066 0.055 120.4
Jason Hammel 408 28 23.6 0.069 0.058 118.6
Carl Pavano 534 37 31.3 0.069 0.059 118.4
Ted Lilly 317 22 18.7 0.069 0.059 117.6
Ian Kennedy 405 23 19.6 0.057 0.048 117.3
Javier Vazquez 387 22 19.0 0.057 0.049 115.9
Bud Norris 341 24 20.9 0.070 0.061 114.8
Justin Masterson 522 31 27.2 0.059 0.052 114.1
Yovani Gallardo 411 28 25.1 0.068 0.061 111.8
Josh Beckett 363 19 17.1 0.052 0.047 111.2
Edwin Jackson 492 27 24.3 0.055 0.049 111.1
Mark Buehrle 503 35 31.6 0.070 0.063 110.6
Anibal Sanchez 387 24 21.7 0.062 0.056 110.4
Ubaldo Jimenez 400 25 22.8 0.063 0.057 109.6
Freddy Garcia 364 19 17.4 0.052 0.048 109.4
Felix Hernandez 556 30 27.4 0.054 0.049 109.3
Kyle Lohse 380 22 20.3 0.058 0.053 108.5
James Shields 489 27 24.9 0.055 0.051 108.3
Brandon McCarthy 424 22 20.3 0.052 0.048 108.3
Tim Wakefield 330 17 15.7 0.052 0.048 108.0
David Price 425 23 21.6 0.054 0.051 106.6
Chris Narveson 348 22 20.7 0.063 0.059 106.3
Gio Gonzalez 392 22 21.0 0.056 0.053 104.9
Nick Blackburn 380 23 22.0 0.061 0.058 104.7
Zachary Britton 360 23 22.2 0.064 0.062 103.6
Jeff Francis 468 31 30.0 0.066 0.064 103.4
Tyler Chatwood 330 19 18.4 0.058 0.056 103.1
Brad Penny 519 25 24.4 0.048 0.047 102.5
Fausto Carmona 497 27 26.5 0.054 0.053 101.8
Chris Capuano 358 25 24.7 0.070 0.069 101.0
Jason Vargas 448 22 21.9 0.049 0.049 100.6
Zack Greinke 329 20 20.0 0.061 0.061 99.9
Derek Holland 438 25 25.1 0.057 0.057 99.6
Chad Billingsley 378 24 24.1 0.063 0.064 99.4
Dillon Gee 346 21 21.2 0.061 0.061 99.2
John Lackey 405 17 17.2 0.042 0.042 98.8
John Danks 394 23 23.4 0.058 0.059 98.5
Tim Hudson 485 34 34.9 0.070 0.072 97.3
Trevor Cahill 532 28 28.8 0.053 0.054 97.2
Brandon Morrow 342 14 14.4 0.041 0.042 97.1
Jered Weaver 422 18 18.7 0.043 0.044 96.1
Derek Lowe 500 33 34.3 0.066 0.069 96.1
Chris Carpenter 531 27 28.3 0.051 0.053 95.5
Roy Halladay 525 29 30.6 0.055 0.058 94.9
Daniel Hudson 434 21 22.1 0.048 0.051 94.9
Luke Hochevar 476 25 26.4 0.053 0.055 94.7
Cole Hamels 418 25 27.0 0.060 0.065 92.5
Bartolo Colon 390 19 20.6 0.049 0.053 92.3
Mike Pelfrey 469 26 28.2 0.055 0.060 92.2
Wade Davis 413 17 18.9 0.041 0.046 90.0
C.J. Wilson 446 23 25.9 0.052 0.058 88.8
Roy Oswalt 327 17 19.2 0.052 0.059 88.4
Jeremy Hellickson 395 15 17.0 0.038 0.043 88.4
Johnny Cueto 335 19 21.5 0.057 0.064 88.4
Jo-Jo Reyes 321 16 18.1 0.050 0.056 88.3
John Lannan 457 28 31.9 0.061 0.070 87.8
Gavin Floyd 437 20 22.9 0.046 0.052 87.5
Cliff Lee 440 23 26.7 0.052 0.061 86.2
Ricky Nolasco 476 24 27.9 0.050 0.059 85.9
Ervin Santana 462 21 24.6 0.045 0.053 85.4
Aaron Harang 374 16 19.1 0.043 0.051 83.9
Jordan Zimmermann 314 16 19.1 0.051 0.061 83.6
Ivan Nova 438 22 27.2 0.050 0.062 80.7
Jon Lester 352 16 20.0 0.045 0.057 80.1
Rick Porcello 501 20 25.0 0.040 0.050 80.0
Chris Volstad 412 20 25.1 0.049 0.061 79.8
Joel Pineiro 384 16 20.3 0.042 0.053 78.9
Mike Leake 346 17 21.9 0.049 0.063 77.8
Matt Garza 418 18 23.3 0.043 0.056 77.2
Kyle McClellan 343 16 20.8 0.047 0.061 77.0
Philip Humber 383 16 20.9 0.042 0.055 76.4
Wandy Rodriguez 356 18 25.2 0.051 0.071 71.4
Alexi Ogando 414 12 17.2 0.029 0.042 69.7
A.J. Burnett 449 18 26.6 0.040 0.059 67.7
Colby Lewis 423 12 18.3 0.028 0.043 65.5
Brett Myers 445 19 29.0 0.043 0.065 65.5
CC Sabathia 430 20 30.7 0.047 0.071 65.2
Brian Duensing 345 16 26.6 0.046 0.077 60.1
Carlos Zambrano 331 10 17.9 0.030 0.054 55.9
Jaime Garcia 452 16 30.6 0.035 0.068 52.3
Jason Marquis 318 11 21.3 0.035 0.067 51.5
Max Scherzer 448 9 19.1 0.020 0.043 47.0

Like catchers, the small number of balls that are fielded by pitchers means you should take these numbers with a big grain of salt. It is interesting to note that with all his other problems, A.J. Burnett did little with his glove to help himself. On the other hand, few on the Yankees staff shone on defense.

Their cross town rivals, the Mets, did very well. I wonder if R.A.Dickey’s knuckle ball induces a lot of easy comebackers?

2 thoughts on “Objective PMR, Pitchers”

  1. Sal

    Knuckleballers should have higher fielding percentages because they are throwing much softer and have more time to get in good square fielding position prior to a batted ball getting to them. They don’t have nearly the torque and rotation of their upper body as some hard throwers and it makes it easier for them to land in a balanced position.

    ReplyReply
  2. Plank

    The Yankees dropped two of their 3 duds on defense and picked up 2 of the best according to this list.

    ReplyReply

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