The Tampa Bay Rays host the Boston Red Sox as the teams open a three-game series in what could be the last gasp of the AL Wild Card race. John Lackey faces Wade Davis. Lackey’s problem this season boils down to his being easy to hit. John was never a low batting average pitcher, but he kept his walks and power allowed low enough that the singles didn’t hurt him. This year, in addition to the .302 BA, batters are reaching base at a .370 clip and slugging .482. Davis showed no progress from his first full season in the majors, 2010. His strikeouts are down, but he didn’t pull down his walk rate nor his home run rate much. This game may be decided by the bullpens.

A pitching match-up like the one in Milwaukee makes me look forward to a Brewers/Phillies playoff. Roy Halladay takes on Shaun Marcum. Roy leads all major league pitchers in WAR as he combines impressive rates on his three-true outcomes with a durability in innings pitched. He cut his home runs allowed from 24 last season to nine this year. Marcum may be better than his stats indicate as his road pitching is outstanding this season.

The Angels are just 2 1/2 games out in the AL West as they host the rain and travel weary Yankees. Former Angels pitcher Bartolo Colon battles Cy Young contender Jered Weaver. Colon showed better control this year than he ever did as a young gun with Cleveland, without losing much of his ability to strike out batters. Whatever the doctors did to his arm, it worked very well. Weaver owns a winning record against New York in his career, 5-2, but not because he pitched well. His ERA stands at 5.40 due to 12 home runs in 48 1/3 innings.

Finally, the best pitching match of the night takes place in San Francisco where Clayton Kershaw and the Giants Dodgers try to defeat Tim Lincecum. Since the start of the 2009 seasons, Lincecum and Kershaw stand 1-2 in strikeouts per nine innings among pitchers with at least 500 IP. Expect a lot of extra wind by the bay tonight.

Enjoy!