Five-Year PMR, Third Basemen

The five year look at PMR using an objective probabilistic model of range continues with third baseman. Here is the data for the teams at third over the five year span:

Team third baseman PMR, 2006-2010, four parameter objective model built on visiting team data.
Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	Actual DER	Predicted DER	Index
DET	16601	2278	1985.8	0.137	0.120	114.7
BOS	15756	2127	1963.4	0.135	0.125	108.3
BAL	16429	2070	1965.7	0.126	0.120	105.3
SEA	17219	2155	2056.5	0.125	0.119	104.8
WAS	16758	2079	1994.8	0.124	0.119	104.2
ANA	15651	1882	1827.8	0.120	0.117	103.0
TBA	15762	1991	1934.9	0.126	0.123	102.9
OAK	16234	2040	1985.6	0.126	0.122	102.7
SLN	17200	2120	2066.4	0.123	0.120	102.6
PIT	16839	2200	2153.5	0.131	0.128	102.2
LAN	16161	2005	1986.0	0.124	0.123	101.0
MIL	16036	1954	1936.2	0.122	0.121	100.9
SFN	15375	1926	1911.8	0.125	0.124	100.7
KCA	16406	1892	1878.3	0.115	0.114	100.7
PHI	16533	2100	2104.9	0.127	0.127	99.8
CIN	16375	1895	1900.1	0.116	0.116	99.7
CHN	15218	1844	1866.0	0.121	0.123	98.8
ATL	16062	1875	1899.5	0.117	0.118	98.7
MIN	15919	1984	2020.2	0.125	0.127	98.2
NYA	15941	1859	1893.5	0.117	0.119	98.2
NYN	15839	1936	1990.1	0.122	0.126	97.3
COL	16985	1885	1953.7	0.111	0.115	96.5
HOU	15943	1922	1997.4	0.121	0.125	96.2
CLE	16767	2048	2131.1	0.122	0.127	96.1
TOR	16319	1977	2060.7	0.121	0.126	95.9
CHA	17128	2136	2248.1	0.125	0.131	95.0
SDN	16032	1846	1960.5	0.115	0.122	94.2
ARI	16245	1851	1966.5	0.114	0.121	94.1
TEX	16725	1831	1966.0	0.109	0.118	93.1
FLO	16004	1811	1955.9	0.113	0.122	92.6

If a team used Adrian Beltre over the the last five seasons, they were pretty good at third base. Detroit leads the pack, thanks to Brandon Inge:

Individual third basemen PMR, 2006-2010, four parameter objective model built on visiting team data.
Fielder	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	Actual DER	Predicted DER	Index
Brandon Inge	12901	1772	1534.5	0.137	0.119	115.5
Evan Longoria	7774	1054	943.6	0.136	0.121	111.7
Scott Rolen	12222	1579	1461.0	0.129	0.120	108.1
Eric Chavez	4895	639	597.5	0.131	0.122	106.9
Melvin Mora	11353	1459	1369.8	0.129	0.121	106.5
Mike Lowell	9823	1298	1221.1	0.132	0.124	106.3
Nick Punto	4365	598	562.4	0.137	0.129	106.3
Jack Hannahan	4222	543	512.6	0.129	0.121	105.9
Adrian Beltre	14499	1840	1745.0	0.127	0.120	105.4
Chone Figgins	7441	905	859.0	0.122	0.115	105.3
Ryan Zimmerman	14647	1817	1745.1	0.124	0.119	104.1
Ian Stewart	5311	639	614.6	0.120	0.116	104.0
Pedro Feliz	12884	1672	1606.9	0.130	0.125	104.0
Andy LaRoche	5619	732	704.9	0.130	0.125	103.8
Alex Gordon	6409	753	726.3	0.117	0.113	103.7
Jhonny Peralta	4124	528	513.9	0.128	0.125	102.7
Joe Crede	7505	1032	1009.2	0.138	0.134	102.3
Mark Teahen	5416	646	640.9	0.119	0.118	100.8
Chipper Jones	10575	1243	1245.2	0.118	0.118	99.8
Alex Rodriguez	12766	1476	1508.3	0.116	0.118	97.9
Ty Wigginton	4642	546	557.9	0.118	0.120	97.9
Casey Blake	10279	1257	1289.0	0.122	0.125	97.5
Jose Bautista	6348	802	825.7	0.126	0.130	97.1
David Wright	14931	1808	1871.4	0.121	0.125	96.6
Aramis Ramirez	11546	1351	1405.1	0.117	0.122	96.2
Edwin Encarnacion	11086	1264	1318.5	0.114	0.119	95.9
Chad Tracy	4557	522	547.6	0.115	0.120	95.3
Pablo Sandoval	4718	559	591.1	0.118	0.125	94.6
Kevin Kouzmanoff	11031	1268	1346.5	0.115	0.122	94.2
Mark Reynolds	9924	1130	1205.9	0.114	0.122	93.7
Troy Glaus	8065	923	989.4	0.114	0.123	93.3
Garrett Atkins	9743	1045	1120.7	0.107	0.115	93.2
Hank Blalock	4054	457	490.9	0.113	0.121	93.1
Casey McGehee	4211	467	508.5	0.111	0.121	91.8
Miguel Cabrera	6241	715	789.2	0.115	0.126	90.6
Michael Young	5549	597	663.5	0.108	0.120	90.0
Jorge Cantu	4607	485	562.2	0.105	0.122	86.3

Of all the positions run so far, this one matches my expectations the best. The only person near the top of the list that strikes me as not belonging is Melvin Mora, and indeed FanGraphs ranks him low in terms of range runs.

You can also see how much Adrian Beltre will help the Rangers defensively. For every 100 outs Young would field, Beltre should pick up 116 to 117. Over 200 Young outs, Beltre will turn over a full game’s worth.

February 24, 2011

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