Mac Thomason gives us his review of Jason Heyward, who appears will make the Braves major league roster at the age of 20.
There’s a lot to be excited about. At the same time, let’s be careful here. Post-integration, there are only about ten players who have had really great seasons at twenty years old, and actually only about ten more who have had good seasons. Since 1991, the former group includes A-Rod and the latter Justin Upton; that’s about it. If Heyward were to be league average, he would be about as good as Hank Aaron was as a twenty year old.
That’s an interesting take. Thomason is looking at Heyward in terms of what the Braves will do this year. I would suspect, however, that players who became regulars by the time they were 20 went on to rather spectacular careers, especially the ones who just had good seasons. If Heyward is good at age 20, the probability of him begin a superstar in his prime goes way up.
Well, yes, for the most part. Top PA for twenty-year-olds since WWII:
PLATE APPEARANCES YEAR PA
1 Ken Hubbs 1962 715
2 Vada Pinson 1959 706
3 Edgar Renteria 1997 691
4 Robin Yount 1976 690
5 Al Kaline 1955 681
6 Alex Rodriguez 1996 677
7 Frank Robinson 1956 668
8 Ken Griffey Jr. 1990 666
9 Cesar Cedeno 1971 649
10 Orlando Cepeda 1958 644
Pinson wasn’t really twenty; next up is Bob Bailey. Others in the top thirty include Robby Alomar, Bench, Mathews, Mazeroski, Mays, Aaron, Clemente.
It’s just that some Braves fans seem to expect Heyward will come up and hit forty homers.