The Philadelphia Phillies stand one game away from a World Series victory with three chances to clinch. They’ll use the first tonight starting at 8:29 PM EDT as Scott Kazmir takes on Cole Hamels in a rematch of game 1.
Hamels pitched brilliantly so far in the post season. He won all four starts with a 1.55 ERA. He’s struck out 27 in 29 innings while walking only eight. His OBA and slugging percentage allowed are both under .300. Combined his opposition OPS is just .524. He’s allowed just two home runs, something that caused him trouble during the regular season. In fact, with a win tonight, Hamels five post-season victories with be more than 1/3 of his regular season victories.
Kazmir continues to pitch himself out of games early. He hasn’t lasted more than six innings in any of his starts in October, usually running up a high pitch count in the first couple of innings. Unlike Hamels, Kazmir’s walk total is high, 12 in 21 2/3 innings. He’s also allowed four home runs. Given his stats, he’s fairly lucky his ERA is just 4.15 in the playoffs.
Kazmir, however, can’t save the Rays by himself. The strength of this lineup lies in their 1-4 hitters, and that quartet has not gotten on base in this series. Combined they collected seven hits and four walks in the first four games in 60 at bats for a .172 OBA. This was a team that was great at getting on base, and four of the players most responsible for that aren’t getting the job done. Unless Kazmir pitches a shutout, the Rays aren’t going to win with that kind of performance.
Reading various articles today, the Phillies are rightly getting ready to celebrate. The Rays, however, showed a great deal of resilience throughout the regular season and the post season. I’m not ready to count them out yet.
Enjoy!