Probabilistic Model of Range, Catchers, 2007

Fielding by catchers isn’t the most important aspect of the job, and the number of outs attributed to the postion are few. But for completeness, here are the tables for the position. First, teams:

Team Catchers PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only
Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Cardinals	4587	57	47.59	0.012	0.010	119.76
Braves	4404	64	55.33	0.015	0.013	115.67
Rockies	4599	76	66.39	0.017	0.014	114.48
Yankees	4511	66	59.51	0.015	0.013	110.90
Dodgers	4310	68	62.43	0.016	0.014	108.91
Angels	4325	39	35.96	0.009	0.008	108.47
Marlins	4491	57	53.73	0.013	0.012	106.09
Nationals	4591	60	57.21	0.013	0.012	104.87
Astros	4530	58	55.59	0.013	0.012	104.33
Tigers	4486	50	47.96	0.011	0.011	104.25
White Sox	4545	50	49.10	0.011	0.011	101.82
Giants	4467	58	57.06	0.013	0.013	101.64
Cubs	4177	51	50.42	0.012	0.012	101.15
Reds	4533	74	73.68	0.016	0.016	100.44
Blue Jays	4349	50	49.79	0.011	0.011	100.42
Royals	4528	46	45.90	0.010	0.010	100.22
Rangers	4518	48	48.05	0.011	0.011	99.90
Red Sox	4226	49	49.56	0.012	0.012	98.88
Devil Rays	4378	41	41.89	0.009	0.010	97.88
Indians	4548	36	37.23	0.008	0.008	96.70
Diamondbacks	4351	50	51.94	0.011	0.012	96.26
Padres	4476	59	61.48	0.013	0.014	95.97
Orioles	4403	37	38.96	0.008	0.009	94.97
Mariners	4535	42	44.86	0.009	0.010	93.63
Pirates	4608	51	54.75	0.011	0.012	93.15
Phillies	4505	56	60.25	0.012	0.013	92.95
Twins	4384	30	32.50	0.007	0.007	92.32
Athletics	4499	37	41.10	0.008	0.009	90.03
Mets	4362	50	56.67	0.011	0.013	88.22
Brewers	4392	51	59.91	0.012	0.014	85.13

The Mets are Brewers, who just completed a trade at the position, came out at the bottom team wise. New York might have been better off with Torrealba, at least fielding wise.

Individual Catcher PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Yadier Molina	2719	32	26.82	0.012	0.010	119.33
Brian McCann	3433	52	43.65	0.015	0.013	119.14
Yorvit Torrealba	2863	54	45.73	0.019	0.016	118.07
Miguel Olivo	3131	44	37.90	0.014	0.012	116.11
Jorge Posada	3484	50	43.52	0.014	0.012	114.90
Eric Munson	1012	17	15.02	0.017	0.015	113.21
Jeff Mathis	1421	21	18.96	0.015	0.013	110.78
Jose Molina	1431	16	14.52	0.011	0.010	110.18
Kelly Shoppach	1365	14	12.72	0.010	0.009	110.07
Gerald Laird	3118	37	33.82	0.012	0.011	109.40
Russell Martin	3687	60	55.76	0.016	0.015	107.60
Gregg Zaun	2559	32	29.91	0.013	0.012	106.98
Brad Ausmus	2728	33	31.07	0.012	0.011	106.22
Chris Iannetta	1613	20	18.83	0.012	0.012	106.20
Toby Hall	1002	10	9.45	0.010	0.009	105.82
Gary Bennett	1223	15	14.18	0.012	0.012	105.75
Jesus Flores	1258	21	19.87	0.017	0.016	105.69
Ivan Rodriguez	3216	41	38.98	0.013	0.012	105.19
John Buck	2879	30	28.52	0.010	0.010	105.18
Brian Schneider	3333	39	37.34	0.012	0.011	104.43
Mike Napoli	1814	12	11.53	0.007	0.006	104.09
Miguel Montero	1629	20	19.57	0.012	0.012	102.20
Javier Valentin	1494	20	19.72	0.013	0.013	101.42
Bengie Molina	3389	42	41.51	0.012	0.012	101.17
Mike Rabelo	1270	9	8.99	0.007	0.007	100.16
Dave Ross	2603	46	46.32	0.018	0.018	99.32
A.J. Pierzynski	3270	37	37.40	0.011	0.011	98.92
Ronny Paulino	3423	40	40.81	0.012	0.012	98.02
Michael Barrett	2291	33	33.76	0.014	0.015	97.74
Ramon Hernandez	2617	24	24.82	0.009	0.009	96.71
Josh Bard	2761	38	39.31	0.014	0.014	96.67
Mike Redmond	1461	11	11.42	0.008	0.008	96.30
Kurt Suzuki	1696	14	14.61	0.008	0.009	95.82
Paul Lo Duca	2922	33	34.63	0.011	0.012	95.29
Dioner Navarro	2901	25	26.29	0.009	0.009	95.09
Jason LaRue	1537	16	16.89	0.010	0.011	94.72
Jason Kendall	3448	31	32.85	0.009	0.010	94.37
Carlos Ruiz	2802	44	46.89	0.016	0.017	93.83
Jason Varitek	3061	33	35.49	0.011	0.012	92.99
Chris Snyder	2611	26	28.37	0.010	0.011	91.64
Johnny Estrada	2922	36	39.51	0.012	0.014	91.12
Kenji Johjima	3548	32	35.22	0.009	0.010	90.85
Rob Bowen	1268	11	12.14	0.009	0.010	90.59
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	1201	11	12.25	0.009	0.010	89.78
Victor Martinez	3183	22	24.51	0.007	0.008	89.76
Joe Mauer	2331	16	18.22	0.007	0.008	87.83
Paul Bako	1290	8	9.42	0.006	0.007	84.90
Matt Treanor	1317	13	15.83	0.010	0.012	82.12
Jason Phillips	1025	7	8.88	0.007	0.009	78.82
Damian Miller	1367	13	17.73	0.010	0.013	73.30

Two of the old men, Posada and Ivan Rodriguez, are still cat like behind the plate.

4 thoughts on “Probabilistic Model of Range, Catchers, 2007”

Tom November 21, 2007 at 2:12 pm

Doesn’t home park play a huge role in this? I would think a catcher who plays at a park with a lot of foul territory would have outs recorded heavily skewed in his favor simply due to increased opportunities.

SleepyCA November 21, 2007 at 5:58 pm

Dave- can you clarify whether or not bunts fielded and turned into double plays count as one or two outs in the “actual outs” column?
Also, do foul balls caught count, or does this only consider fair balls?

NBarnes November 21, 2007 at 6:11 pm

Damn, Posada had a good year.

David Pinto November 21, 2007 at 6:20 pm

Double plays count as one out. I’m looking at the probability of turning a batted ball into an out.
Yes, pop ups count, but the probability of catching a popup is so high that they don’t really help or hurt fielders.

November 21, 2007

4 thoughts on “Probabilistic Model of Range, Catchers, 2007”

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