Peter Gammons reports that the Red Sox do indeed own the high bid for Matsuzaka, and his sources tell him it’s $42 million. We’ll know for sure tomorrow night.
Peter Gammons reports that the Red Sox do indeed own the high bid for Matsuzaka, and his sources tell him it’s $42 million. We’ll know for sure tomorrow night.
Actually we may know tonight…apparently there’s some confusion about whether it’s 8 p.m tonight or 8 p.m tomorrow night. A Boston Globe writer says the Japanese writers at the GM meetings insist the press conference will be tonight.
Nevermind…the Globe updated the thing I read…it is tomorrow.
I have to wonder if this is a good faith bid. Are the Sox really willing to shell out $42 million PLUS the 5-year, $65-million deal that Boras will want for Matsuzaka? 5 years of a pitcher for around $107 million just seems so antithetical to Epstein’s approach. This seems more like a bid to block the Yankees than anything else right now.
i don’t know what’s more shocking – the 42 mil or that the sox went to gammons to tell everyone how great they are.
[i]This seems more like a bid to block the Yankees than anything else right now.[/i]
If so, it certainly looks as though it’ll succeed.
Whether it would be a good move in the long term to do that is a better question — it might piss Matsuzuka off, damaging Boston’s chances to sign him next year. On the other hand, Boston can rightly point out that Matsuzuka is likely to make a lot more money off the deal if he’s free to negotiate with everyone.
The whole process is screwed up, and I can’t really blame the Red Sox for taking advantage of its brokenness to block the Yankees from getting a front-line starter.
Great news for the Yankees.
“If so, it certainly looks as though it’ll succeed.”
If the Red Sox don’t bid in good faith after such a ridiculous bid the comissioner’s office will step in.
People keep forgetting that the Sox ownership group owns NESN (the New England Sports Network). They are attempting to launch NESN in Japan. The Japanese public has proven that, if you have one of their countrymen on your team, THEY WILL COME. The increased revenue from the marketing and advertising rights on NESN for Japanese companies is a revenue stream that few teams have exploited. Ask the Mariners and the Yankees how much extra money they make from the Far East advertising and marketing rights. It’s huge.
In this situation, if the Sox indeed are the high bidders, they would be getting a potential top of the rotation starter who is only 26 years old. The posting fee does NOT go against the luxury tax amount, so people need to stop factoring that into the equation. The posting fee is a business expense used to increase the revenues of the entire ownership group’s portfolio. It is no different than the money spent renovating Fenway park to add seats – you don’t count that amount against their payroll either.
Even if the amount is $42 million, that amount will easily be recouped in the next couple of years in advertising and marketing dollars. It wouldn’t have been as benefitial to the Yanks in those terms because they already have the YES network in Japan, so they would not receive much differential benefit from signing this player.
This is a SMART business move by the Red Sox and also a SMART business move by the Yankees – baseball aside.
I hope you don’t think the Red Sox are stupid enough to *admit* they didn’t bid in good faith.
No. The Red Sox will announce that they’re thrilled to have won the rights to negotiate with him, and that they’re looking forward to signing him. And then there’ll be silence for a couple of months, maybe some rumors, and eventually they’ll either sign him (and don’t discount that possibility — the Red Sox aren’t the Royals), or else regretfully announce that they weren’t able to come to an agreement with him. And most people will believe them if it’s the latter, because that happens all the time. It might even be the truth.
Don’t hold your breath waiting for Selig to throw the Yankees a #1 starter. Or have you forgotten how determinedly the commissioner’s office has pushed screw-the-Yankees schemes through over the course of his tenure?
I think it’s true that *if* Epstein & Co. are just blocking the Yankee bid, they’ll never get caught. They can offer a salary that’s ‘reasonable’ given the huge posting fee, and of course Matsuzaka (and Boras) will decline it. They have perfectly good deniability.
The Red Sox only have 30 days to negotiate with Matsuzaka, once their bid is accepted, cwp.
I suspect Selig will pressure the Red Sox if it looks like they didn’t bid in good faith because of his desire to grow the game globally, and a bad faith bid hurt that.
Orestes Destrade reported that the bid is actually over $50 million, at this rate, it will be $127 mil by tomorrow night
*sigh* Boston’s gonna sign him. Have some faith. Boras doesn’t even want a 5-year deal because after 3 or 4, Matsuzaka will be able to go out and get more. I expect 4 years at somewhere between 11-13.5 per year; or maybe 3 years at 10-11, with an option for a 4th.
bernie did a great job explaining the business side of this…this is a smart move, and opens the door for their taking NESN overseas. Best part is, the TV contract will probably be signed before Matsuzaka throws his first pitch-so even if he bombs, Boston at least recoups some of their losses. Heh.
And you also have to take into consideration the price of starting pitching this offseason. With both NY teams, the Angels, and Tom Hicks’ Rangers bidding on Zito, I for one expect him to end up with a deal worth around $80MM; I wouldn’t be shocked to see someone give him 5-6 years at $15 per year. Burnett got 5/$55, and Zito is freakishly durable, a “winner,” and relatively young.
My point is, when you factor in revenue increases and the price of pitching in today’s market…if Boston did overpay, they didn’t overpay by much. Assuming Matsuzaka doesn’t flame out, of course. There’s risk in every signing, and I think the the potential reward in signing Matsuzaka far outways the risk here.
And who do you trust more, Gammons or Destrade? I trust Gammons… 🙂
I also have more trust in Gammons, but the way this story is coming out of the ether, It would not surprise me that in about an hour from now, Bobby Valentine would be reporting the bid is at $72 mil, the lease of Charles Steinberg for one year, and 3 Fenway Franks.
Haha, well said.
“Some have speculated that the Boston bid is to block the Yankees, but sources told Gammons that is absolutety false. Boston badly wants the pitcher, the marketing revenues from the Japanese market and an entrance in the door of the future of Asian baseball.”
For those of you who believe Gammons but also think Boston was just trying to block New York…that’s from the same article. Dunno how you all missed it…
It’s a good-faith bid.
Maybe it helps to reframe our understanding of the ‘bid’ – this $42 million dollars is a bid for two seperate things: access to an elite, young starter and new market revenues (Japanese TV revenue) that the Red Sox otherwise would not be able to access.
Even if having Matsuzaka on the team is worth an Oswalt-like salary *plus* $42 million, $38 million, or whatever, the bid still doesn’t make any economic sense. Whatever Boston can pay this year, Matsuzaka (and Boras) could get next year… and then they could get $42 mil. too. Not all of it, since the posting fee isn’t subject to luxury tax, but a lot of it.
Why on earth would Boras and his client leave tens of millions of dollars in the pockets of the Lions, when they could take it for themselves next year? If Peter Gammons can answer that question, then I’ll believe his assurance that the bid is genuine.
It’s amazing how much speculation has gone on in this whole affair. Sportswriters have some unnamed source and then go off on their own little tangents, suggesting all kinds of possible reasons and outcomes. Then other sportswriters report what the original sportswriters have said sometimes giving credit and sometimes not. The blogs and forum posters take it from there. And Buster Olney, who I like, has been shockingly presumptuous during his reporting as have all of the Boston and New York talking heads. Gammons chiming in is the first time I actually fully believe any story about it. But to see people sniping about the Sox hypothetically blocking the Yankees with such fervor, just emphasizes how inbred all of the critical discourse is relating to these two teams – there is nothing wrong with just sitting tight and waiting to see what is actually going on. The world goes on, I promise…
Don’t forget that this is a one-time payment and as such, will not affect the Red Sox’s future salary flexibility. Two of the commentators above made the right point: a big chunk of the money is an investment in the Japanese baseball market. A HUGE market.
I’m just sad the Mets bid lost out… supposedly they offered $30 mil.
the term “good faith” has nothing to do with the bid. it has to the with the contract negotiations afterwards. it is impossible to define good faith in these negotiations and no party – boris or the commisioner – would ever be able to prove good faith negotiations did not happen – unless the sox are total morons.
gammons is not impartial when talking about the red sox. he is fed things by epstein all the time (especially when epstein wants to get at the sox). this is why i wouldn’t be surprised if the bid was actually higher or if they would be happy if they did sign matsuzaka but ok if they do not.
“Even if having Matsuzaka on the team is worth an Oswalt-like salary *plus* $42 million, $38 million, or whatever, the bid still doesn’t make any economic sense. Whatever Boston can pay this year, Matsuzaka (and Boras) could get next year… and then they could get $42 mil. too. Not all of it, since the posting fee isn’t subject to luxury tax, but a lot of it.”
Dude…what the hell are you talking about? How could they get $42 mil. too? That money goes to the Seibu Lions, and only the Seibu Lions. No, Matsuzaka would not be signed to a $21 million contract if he waited until next season; he’d be given a deal similar to whatever he’s going to get with Boston. Stop fricken looking at this as a $21 million a year deal; it makes almost no sense to view things that way.
Oh yeah…and the Yanks don’t sound like they were even the next highest bid. So if this was only done to block New York…Boston really screwed up big time.
This is a smart business move by the Red Sox that will also pay off on the baseball field. As has been mentioned, the bid+salary will come to around $105-115Million total. The Red Sox could go out and sign Zito or Schmidt for 12-13M per season, but Matsuzaka has much more value.
Sure, that 107Million looks like a huge number, but the advertising in Japan plus the benefits it could have on future players coming to Boston from Japan will be great. This is a terrific business move and I fully expect the Red Sox to sign Matsuzaka to ensure that it’ll pay off on the baseball field as well.
The Yankees had reason to take the US pitcher route and go after Schmidt, Zito, etc… because they’ve already got a stake in the Japanese market in Hideki Matsui. The Red Sox are looking for international options for the future and adding Matsuzaka would be a huge start.