Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.364 — Daniel Murphy batting against Adam Morgan
0.360 — Trea Turner batting against Adam Morgan
0.327 — Francisco Lindor batting against Jose Berrios
0.325 — Wilson Ramos batting against Adam Morgan
0.311 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Edwin Jackson
0.309 — Corey Seager batting against Jose Urena
0.309 — Adrian Beltre batting against Jered Weaver
0.308 — Jose Ramirez batting against Jose Berrios
0.308 — Carlos Beltran batting against Jered Weaver
0.304 — Jonathan Lucroy batting against Jered Weaver
0.304 — Lonnie Chisenhall batting against Jose Berrios
Hot hitter Jose Ramirez makes the cut today. He will turn 24 in six days, and looks very good going into his peak years for Cleveland.
The NN produces this list:
0.364, 0.775 — Daniel Murphy batting against Adam Morgan.
0.360, 0.760 — Trea Turner batting against Adam Morgan.
0.327, 0.748 — Francisco Lindor batting against Jose Berrios.
0.309, 0.744 — Corey Seager batting against Jose Urena.
0.311, 0.737 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.291, 0.730 — Devon Travis batting against Clay Buchholz.
0.309, 0.722 — Adrian Beltre batting against Jered Weaver.
0.325, 0.719 — Wilson Ramos batting against Adam Morgan.
0.297, 0.717 — Charles Blackmon batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.275, 0.716 — Yunel Escobar batting against Colby Lewis.
0.227, 0.712 — Jose Altuve batting against Jake Arrieta.
0.308, 0.712 — Carlos Beltran batting against Jered Weaver.
Log5 and the NN pick the same top three.
The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:
0.364, 0.779 — Daniel Murphy batting against Adam Morgan.
0.360, 0.766 — Trea Turner batting against Adam Morgan.
0.327, 0.752 — Francisco Lindor batting against Jose Berrios.
0.309, 0.747 — Corey Seager batting against Jose Urena.
0.311, 0.741 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.291, 0.733 — Devon Travis batting against Clay Buchholz.
0.325, 0.728 — Wilson Ramos batting against Adam Morgan.
0.309, 0.726 — Adrian Beltre batting against Jered Weaver.
0.297, 0.722 — Charles Blackmon batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.275, 0.720 — Yunel Escobar batting against Colby Lewis.
It’s three for three, looking like a Murphy-Turner-Lindor day. Please remember your best picks will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!