The terms of the Dodgers deal with Kenta Maedas finally leaked:
@mlbtraderumors @MLBONFOX Kenta Maedas deal is for 8yrs 24 Million, + 10-12 million a yr in incentives. 3 million AAV. Creative deal for LA.
— Chris Meola (@ChrisMeolaTalk) January 2, 2016
His base salary will be low, but his incentives high. Without knowing where the incentives kick in the Dodgers see him as a 0.5 to 2.0 WAR player based on the range of potential salary. I wonder how much the scale slides with production. If he is a one WAR pitcher, does he get $7.5 million, or does he have to hit two WAR before the incentives kick in?
That said, I wonder how long it will be before teams offer a player a WAR based contract? Let’s say there is a player who is potentially great, but showed a wide variance in production the previous four years. Why not offer a base salary with an incentive for $7.5 million * WAR (minus the base salary). If the player is terrible or injured, he still does well, but the team is not in a whole. If he has an MVP season, he rakes in the cash. Teams could take the average of fWAR and rWAR. Especially for pitchers, who’s performance tends to be more volatile, this could be a boon.
If I’m not mistaken, incentives cannot be based on performance other than being on the field – IP, PA or days on roster. Yankees had to get permission for A-Rod’s bonuses, and they were portrayed as bonuses for marketing, not for hitting homers. But this contract will be interesting from the point of view of tax. Even if Maeda hits all the bonuses, it will probably count from $4.5M in the first year to $15M in the last year (for $12M bonuses every year).
What Davor said. However, IP can be a proxy for performance. A 1 WAR SP’er (per 180 IP) is unlikely to pitch many innings. If he is pitching 180 IP a year he is likely at least a 2 WAR player. Then you have bonus for getting into the ASG, which suggests at least a 3-4 WAR player, or top 10 ranking in Cy Young voting which suggests a 4-5 WAR and winning the Cy Young which suggest a 6+ WAR.
There were some injury concerns with Maeda so its likely health was as much a concern as performance.
Its 25 million bucks guaranteed, albeit over a rather long period, with a chance to earn significantly more. Japans salary structure is such that 25 million is probably better than what he would do there over 8 years. I believe he made 2.5-3 million last year (Yen is pretty weak now), less than Daisuke Lite is making
The deal suggests there was only 1 team in on Maeda. Being in the NL with that park should help him reach some incentives. I would worry that if the incentives are large enough that the team might be tempted to curtail innings when possible.