Category Archives: Amateur Draft

June 10, 2020

Surprise of the Evening

The Orioles surprised baseball by selecting Heston Kjerstad with the second pick in the draft:

Kjerstad, 21, was rated as the No. 10 player in the draft by MLBPipeline.com and No. 13 by Baseball America. In 16 games before college baseball shut down, he hit .448/.513/.791 with five doubles, six home runs and 20 RBIs. He hit .327/.400/.575 with 13 doubles, one triple, 17 home runs and 51 RBIs in 300 plate appearances as a sophomore and .332/.419/.553 with 16 doubles, 14 home runs and 58 RBIs in 313 plate appearances in his first season.

MASNSports.com

The Orioles are now run by two of the very smart player development people from the Astros. They have a knack of using analysis to identify traits that are important that others have not seen. We’ll see if they were right, or the publication experts had a better grasp on the player.

June 10, 2020

Torque for the Tigers

The Tigers take college power hitter Spencer Torkleson as the number one pick in the 2020 amateur draft:

Those numbers are no mirage. Scouts claim that Torkelson is one of the most complete hitters to come through the draft in years. He is lauded by everyone, as evaluators claim that his “double plus power comes easy” and he “controls at-bats extremely well.” FanGraphs really lays it on thick, opining that he has “sublime hitter’s timing, plus bat speed, and above-average barrel control and ball/strike recognition.”

BlessYouBoys.com

The Tigers could certainly use a young slugger, and a number of other players. Interestingly, they drafted him as a third baseman despite his playing first base in college. An early move to first base is often a sign of poor defense, but the Tigers believe he can play third base.

June 10, 2020 June 5, 2020

Eliminate the Draft

Bill Thompson at Beyond the Boxscore joins the end the MLB draft movement. It is very difficult for me to pick out my favorite paragraph, but here is a sample:

This system doesn’t exist anywhere else in the professional world outside of team sports. Professors don’t get their PhD’s and then enter a draft to see which university will get their services. I didn’t become a Paramedic and enter a draft among fire departments to hopefully get to practice medicine. Name your career, there is no draft involved unless it is a team sport. These players should have the ability to ply their trade where they so choose. There’s no reason Spencer Torkelson shouldn’t be able to say, “you know what, I’ve decided I want to play for the Los Angeles Angels, sorry every other team that was interested.”

BeyondTheBoxscore.com

Baseball Musings held this position since 2007. I hope Bill gets on the universal free agency bandwagon as well.

March 29, 2020

Scouting Issues

How do scouts evaluate talent when the talent isn’t playing? Damon Oppenheimer, Yankees top domestic scout, talks about the challenges:

Yes, Yankees scouts saw players last summer and in the fall’s showcase circuit, but not laying eyes on a high school senior makes the evaluation incomplete.

“It really makes it more of a challenge,’’ Oppenheimer said of being unable to get an in-depth look at players. “You haven’t seen the player. Did he get stronger? It makes it hard. It’s a little bit of a challenge.’’

NYPost.com

High school players are still growing, so the difference between a junior and a senior can be significant. I have little doubt talent will be missed this season.

In addition, the skills of baseball are learned through repetition. Batters build pattern recognizers to identify pitches. That means they need to see a lot of pitches. Pitchers need to throw to build arm strength and perfect their mechanics. The actual game competition teaches all players how to adjust, how to anticipate strategy, what actually works and what doesn’t.

While this year’s draft class is going to be hurt, the talent coming up behind them might be hurt as well. They will miss a season of competition that would help them build skills. We might see a deficit of talent coming to the majors for another three or four years.

December 12, 2019

Another Call to End the Draft

Shane Tourtellotte joins the call to end the amateur draft in major league baseball.

Baseball gives its prospects a hard road to the majors, in the many minor-league levels they have to ascend and the Poverty Row conditions they must endure much of the way. Giving these players more control over how they start on that long road would reconcile them better to their labors and maybe coax some more multi-sport talents into choosing to pursue baseball professionally. That means more talent in the pipeline, and that means baseball is stronger and better.

THT.FanGraphs.com

This has been a long standing call here at Baseball Musings (and here), part of the idea of going to universal free agency.

July 16, 2019

Clark on the Draft

I am sorry I missed this during the All-Star break:

On some level, though, the discussion will have to involve moving resources from one class of player to another. It’s at least somewhat curious, then, that Clark also indicated it was “not yet” necessary for a radical overhaul of the general arbitration and free-agent systems of compensation — a system that he has said previously “doesn’t work” in its current form. He did say that he has broached the concept of ending the amateur draft, which would assuredly represent a dramatic change in approach (albeit one that seems quite unlikely to gain traction and that might result in undesirable side effects).

mlbtraderumors.com

I have been pushing for the end of the draft for years, and it’s good to see the MLBPA finally talking about the issue.

June 8, 2019

The Draft Connection

Sean Kirst tells the story of high school pitcher Alex Johnson and umpire Doug Zavondy. The two found a common bond recently:

With a little time to kill before the first pitch in a game last month between McKinley High School and City Honors, the umps wandered toward Alex Johnson — a 6-foot-6 right-hander who can bring some 90 mph heat — to ask the McKinley senior what the hubbub was about.
Johnson, 18, paused from warming up. He is a thoughtful kid who always makes a point of introducing himself to the umpires. With a quick glance toward the scouts, he explained the situation.


From what Johnson had been told, he had a chance of becoming the first player to ever be chosen in the Major League Baseball draft, out of McKinley.


The umpires smiled, then offered a surprise.

It just so happened, Hope replied, that the guy to his left was drafted out of McKinley, too.

BuffaloNews.com

The Pirates drafted Zavondy in 1972, but he did not sign. The Reds snagged Johnson this year, and he faces the same choices as Zavondy, as they were both picked late in the draft.

June 3, 2019

The Draft

The night of the MLB amateur draft is a good time to discuss the abolition of the process. The draft as it stands today gives the players another reason to be angry with owners. Amateurs should be free agents, able to sign for what the market will bear, especially if their careers are going to be controlled by a team for up to 12 seasons (minors and majors).

At least prior to a few years ago, drafted players could at least negotiate a deal, and threaten to not sign if their number wasn’t met. Now, with slots, baseball pretty much dictates how much they make.

That’s why I was happy to see a Japanese team go after a drafted player who did not sign. MLB lowered the price of amateur talent with draft rules and international signing limits, so it would be a good time for Japan and other leagues around the world to grab that talent. I hope that happens, that MLB loses talent. It would force them to rethink how they pay amateurs, and it would improve the quality of play of other leagues around the world.

I would love to see universal free agency, but at this point I would like to see some way of players and teams being able to negotiate with a range of players, based on some kind of ranking (maybe draft lists submitted by teams). So the top five teams could negotiate with the top ten players; the next five teams could negotiate with six through fifteen, etc. It would keep the rich teams from getting all the good talent, but give everyone the chance to find the best fit.

June 3, 2019