Category Archives: Trades

May 3, 2024

Suk, Head for Arraez

The Padres and Marlins appear ready to consummate a big deal for Luis Arraez:

ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported Friday that the Miami Marlins are expected to trade Arráez to the San Diego Padres in exchange for three prospects and a relief pitcher. According to Marlins insider Craig Mish, San Diego will send outfield prospects Dillon Head and Jakob Marsee, first baseman Nathan Martorella and relief pitcher Woo-Suk Go to Miami in the deal.
SI.com

With Xander Bogaerts mired in a terrible season, it would seem that Arraez would slide in as the replacement, although he would be good as DH if Manny Machado moves back to the field permanently. The Marlins give up 2024 early and start rebuilding.

Head is just 19 years old at High A ball. Marsee and Martorellaares an on-base machines. Go is a high K, high walk pitcher from Japan who as doing just okay in the minors.

March 14, 2024

Dylands in San Diego

The White Sox traded Dylan Cease to the Padres for four prospects:

The White Sox are receiving right-hander Drew Thorpe, who is the No. 4-ranked prospect in the Padres’ system and No. 64 among ESPN’s top 100 MLB prospects, right-hander Jairo Iriarte (the No. 7 prospect among San Diego’s minor leaguers), outfielder Samuel Zavala and right-hander Steven Wilson.
ESPN.com

Cease supposedly had an off-year in 2023, but his 3.7 fWAR indicates much of that might have been out of his control. Opponents hit for a high BABIP against him, an indication that the defense behind him was poor. I suspect the Padres know they are getting a very good pitcher.

Thorpe pitched extremely well in five starts for the Yankees double A team in 2023. He is just out of college. Iriarte is a high K, low home run pitcher, but he does walk a ton of batters. Zavala chewed up A Ball at age 18, doing a fantastic job of getting on base. Wilson gives the White Sox another arm out of the bullpen.

I think the White Sox did an excellent job of improving via rebuilding with this deal.

February 1, 2024

Orioles Get Burnes

Word leaked that the Orioles and Brewers swung a deal than that moves Corbin Burnes to Baltimore:

The Brewers will receive infielder Joey Ortiz, left-hander D.L. Hall and the 34th pick in the 2024 draft, sources said.

While Milwaukee had fielded trade offers for Burnes all winter, the shrinking time until spring training had left some teams believing the Brewers would hold on to the 2021 National League Cy Young winner. Up stepped the Orioles, who won 101 games last year and feature perhaps the best young core in the major leagues but had questions about their rotation.
ESPN.com

Ortiz is about to enter his peak years, and hit well at AAA. Hall, in 33 MLB innings, struck out 42 batters and walked eleven. He had control issues in the minors. So Milwaukee didn’t get all that much for the star pitcher, but they didn’t want to lose him to free agency for nothing after the 2024 season. Both Ortiz and Hall are useful and cheap. It’s a good deal for the Orioles.

January 30, 2024

Northern Trade

The Twins and Mariners pulled off a five player deal:

The Seattle Mariners and Minnesota Twins swung a five-player trade Monday, with second baseman Jorge Polanco going to Seattle for outfield prospect Gabriel Gonzalez, reliever Justin Topa, starter Anthony DeSclafani and minor league pitcher Darren Bowen.

The Mariners are also giving the Twins cash considerations. Both teams announced the deal Monday night.
ESPN.com

That seems like a pretty good haul for Polanco. He peaked at seasonal age 27 in 2021 at 4.2 fWAR, and posted 1.8 and 1.5 fWAR seasons since. In the last two seasons he saw both his walk rate and K rate increase, but the increase K rate came with a decrease in power, which is not the way that is supposed to work. FanGraphs also has him as a below average fielder.

Gonzalez, at seasonal age 19, tore up A ball but struggled at A+. Overall, his three season minor league career shows someone who can hit for average, get on base, and hit for power.

Topa is a rare low strikeout reliever, but keeps the ball in the park and doesn’t walk many batters. He allows little power, with just 21 of the 89 hits against him going for extra bases in his career.

DeSclafani followed up his great 2021 season with two years of injuries, but the Twins need starting pitchers after losing three starters to free agency. Bowen is a wild flame thrower with little professional experience under his belt.

The Twins are looking to rebuild after a division win, while the Mariners are looking to keep their streak of missing the playoffs to one season. Seattle second basemen hit .205/.294/.313 in 2023, so this trade addresses a glaring weakness. The Twins get a potential young star and some pitching depth. We’ll know by the end of the season how the Mariners did in the trade, but it will be a while to know if it was worth it for Minnesota.

January 5, 2024

Trade on the High Seas

The Seattle Mariners made two trades today, first sending Robbie Ray to the Giants:

Mitch Haniger is returning to Seattle.

On a busy Friday for roster moves, the Mariners finalized a trade with the San Francisco Giants to reacquire Haniger, who left the Mariners after the 2022 season as a free agent, with right-handed pitcher Anthony DeSclafani and $3 million in cash for left-handed pitcher Robbie Ray.
SeattleTimes.com

Ray only made one start in 2023, losing the rest of the season due to surgery to repair the flexor tendon in his pitching elbow. He is a high strikeout pitcher who brought his walks under control in his prime, which pushed him to among the best in the league.

Haniger came up to the majors in his prime, and his first two full seasons were his best. He posted an abysmal .266 OBP in 2023. DeSclafani posted an up and down career so far, and after an ankle injury produced two poor seasons, the Mariners have to hope for some upside.

The second trade involved the Rays:

In his 12th trade with Tampa Bay featuring MLB players, Dipoto acquired left-handed hitting outfielder/first baseman Luke Raley for utility infielder Jose Caballero.
SeattleTimes.com

Raley is another player who came up late. Only three seasons into his career, he’ll play 2024 as a 29 year old. Caballero was old for a rookie at 26, but did a fantastic job in the minors of getting on base, and drew a good number of walks in his rookie season.

Overall, I’m not sure the Mariners improved themselves very much. The Giants have upside with Ray, and the Rays will likely play Caballero to his strengths.

December 30, 2023

Grissom for Sale

The Braves trade infielder Vaughn Grissom to the Red Sox for Chris Sale. It would appear the Braves are not interested in flipping a once great veteran this time:

Sale waived his no-trade clause to consummate the deal, which followed months of efforts from the Braves to add a starting pitcher to a rotation that already includes Spencer Strider, Max Fried and Charlie Morton. While Grissom had been part of prospective trades this winter, including offers for Chicago White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease, he wound up being what it took to get Sale, who will go to Atlanta with cash to offset his $27.5 million salary in 2024.

Sale, 34, is coming off his best season since 2019, having posted a 4.30 ERA in 102? innings with 125 strikeouts, 29 walks and 15 home runs allowed. From 2020 to 2022, Sale threw only 48? innings. Tommy John surgery kept him out in 2020 and most of 2021, and a rib injury delayed his 2022 debut for months, only for a comebacker to break his left pinkie in his first start back and end his season.
ESPN.com

Grissom remains two seasons from reaching his prime. Throughout his minor league career he posted high BABIPs with relatively low K rates, giving him a career .320 minor league BA with a .407 OBP. So far in the majors. So far in his limited time in the majors he owns a .348 BABIP, but with a much higher K rate. I suspect once he gets more of a chance to see MLB pitching, that K rate will drop.

It looks to me like the Red Sox got a really good deal here, Grissom might be a star, especially if Fenway helps him with his doubles power. If things go well for the Braves, Sale will be an effective back of the rotation starter.

December 16, 2023

Glasnow Paid Now

Tyler Glasnow agreed to a contract extension that allowed the Dodgers and Rays to finalize a four-player swap:

The Dodgers and Rays finalized the four-player trade that will sent right-hander Tyler Glasnow, outfielder Manuel Margot and $4M in cash considerations to Los Angeles in exchange for right-hander Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny Deluca. News of the trade first broke a few days ago, with the final hurdle being the Dodgers’ ability to sign Glasnow to a contract extension. That deal has now also been completed, with L.A. announcing that Glasnow has agreed to a new long-term pact worth $136.5M. Glasnow is represented by Wasserman.
YardBarker.com

The deal contains no deferred money.

Glasnow posted xFIPs under three in each of the last five seasons, while his ERA have been all over the place. The Rays tend to put very good defenses on the field, so this is a good example of how a pitcher can be consistently good in the things he can control and still have what look like good and okay years in terms of ERA. Margot is a backup with a decent BA, but his OBP and slugging percentage come in low.

Pepiot seems to be the opposite of Glasnow. His ERA, at both the minor and major league level is much better than his FIPs. He walks a lot of batters, but given his low opposition BABIP, hitters don’t make solid contact against him. The are just not enough hits to advance the walked runners.

Deluca showed a lot of power in the minors, and his OBP rose as he worked his way up the levels. He should be a much better bat than Margot.

I will point out that the Dodgers had to make a deal like this due to a somewhat weak pitching staff. I am so used to the Dodgers pulling great pitchers out of their farm system that this comes as a bit of a shock. While the Dodgers have plenty of good bats, they may not have much room for error on offense. A couple of key injuries to the lineup might bring them to the level of their pitching, and then a division victory may not be all that inevitable.

December 15, 2023

Deal in the Works

The Dodgers and Rays are working on a deal that would send Tyler Glasnow to Los Angeles. I’ll wait to see if the deal actually happens, as the deal is dependent on Glasnow signing a long term deal. I did find this bit interesting on the Tampa Bay side of things:

I probably say that deals are win-win too much. So I’ll hedge slightly this time, and say that I like this trade more for the Rays than I do for the Dodgers, but with caveats. First, from the Rays’ perspective, living in a way where you always deal your stars if they won’t sign a long-term extension might not be fun, but it’s hardly a new phenomenon. This is just how they operate; Glasnow is part of the Delmon Young trade tree, which goes back to 2007. The Rays just keep flipping, keep pushing value forward, and I think that both Pepiot and Deluca are going to be useful parts of their team for years to come. Their whole model works because they’re able to make deals like these.
FanGraphs.com

The Rays traded Young for Matt Garza, who was flipped for Chris Archer and Sam Fuld, among others. Archer brought the Rays Glasnow and Austin Meadows. Meadows brought them Isaac Paredes. Tampa Bay certainly follows the philosophy of trading a player too soon rather than too late.

December 9, 2023

The Flipping Braves

The Braves appear to be operating as a player exchange, trading for players they don’t want, then finding value for them elsewhere:

The Atlanta Braves acquired infielder David Fletcher and catcher Max Stassi from the Los Angeles Angels for first baseman Evan White and left-handed reliever Tyler Thomas on Friday, the team announced, continuing a money-juggling effort in the wake of a previous trade.

At the beginning of the winter meetings, Atlanta dealt for outfielder Jarred Kelenic and a pair of higher-paid players: White and pitcher Marco Gonzales. During the meetings, the Braves flipped Gonzales and his $12 million salary to Pittsburgh along with cash in exchange for a player to be named later.

White, who is owed $17 million for the remaining two guaranteed seasons and the buyout on his contract, was the latest to move — and is unlikely to be the last. Stassi, sources said, will almost certainly be traded as well, with Atlanta already boasting a pair of catchers (Sean Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud) and Stassi owed $7 million in 2024.
ESPN.com

You sometimes see this on a small scale, usually in a three-way trade. Or you see teams take a bunch of non-prospects in a salary dump. The Braves, however, are taking players with value, and then finding a trading partner that needs that value. They help improve other teams a little bit while improving themselves even more.

For all the talk of analytics in the game, the Braves front office might have the best understanding of the economics of the game. This allows them to constantly improve while keeping their payroll reasonable. The results have been impressive.

December 7, 2023

Soto to the Yankees

The Yankees and Padres completed a deal than sends Juan Soto to New York:

The San Diego Padres traded Juan Soto to the New York Yankees late Wednesday night, marking the second trade in less than 17 months for the 25-year-old outfielder who has established himself as one of this era’s most gifted hitters.

The Yankees also received outfielder Trent Grisham from the Padres as part of the seven-player deal. In exchange, San Diego received right-handers Michael King, Jhony Brito and Randy Vasquez, starting-pitching prospect Drew Thorpe and catcher Kyle Higashioka.
ESPN.com

The Padres get King, a good pitcher with two prime years left, and two years of control. In his minor league career, Brito posted low numbers in all three-true outcomes; he walks few and gives up few home runs, but batters put the ball in play against him. Good defense will be key when he’s pitching. He’s also not young, as 2024 will be his age 26 season. Vasquez also limits home runs, but tends to walk batters more. The Padres needed pitching, and they received major league ready pitching.

Thorpe is the prize here, as he rose quickly to AA in his first year in the minors and pitched extremely well there. He had an injury concern, but the Padres were obviously satisficed with his medical condition. Higashioka gives the Padres a solid backup at catcher, and a catcher who knows the major league pitchers.

The Yankees got left-handed quickly. Soto, Grisham, and the recently acquired Alex Verdugo all bat in a sinister manner. New York takes a risk in trading lots of talent for potentially one year of Soto. Then again, they Yankees have the resources to keep him away from free agency.

I actually find the inclusion of Grisham fascinating. He’s not a good hitter, but his defense helps make him a two-WAR player. It’s also possible to set up a platoon with Grisham and Verdugo, as Grisham is a reverse lefty at the plate for his career. So Verdugo plays most of the time, since right-handers are prevalent in the game, but Grisham can start against left-handers, giving the Yankees a chance to rest other players. He’ll also allow New York to put better defense on the field late in the game.

This deal will need to be judged long term, as it depends on the Yankees ability to sign Soto long term and if Thorpe develops into a superlative major league pitcher.

December 6, 2023

Verdugo A Yankee

The Red Sox and Yankees made a rare trade:

The Yankees acquired outfielder Alex Verdugo from the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday night, with New York turning to the 27-year-old to improve its offense in just the eighth trade between the rivals since the start of the Divisional Era in 1969. 

The Red Sox received right-handers Richard Fitts, Greg Weissert and Nicholas Judice in the deal.
ESPN.com

Verdugo is a career .281/.337/.428 hitter, so his main strength is getting on base. All three outfield positions posted below .300 OBPs in 2023 for New York, so Verdugo should improve offense among the outfielders.

The Yankees did not give up a lot. Fitts owns an excellent minor league record, and the trade is basically Fitts for Verdugo. Judice has yet to record a professional inning, but walked a ton of batters in college.

It’s not a deal that will turn around either club, but each received a useful player.

December 4, 2023

Selling Contracts

The Mariners “traded” three players to the Braves in exchange for two pitchers, one recovering from an injury who never pitched pitched professionally, and one who failed so far in his career at the major league level.

The Atlanta Braves acquired outfielder Jarred Kelenic, left-hander Marco Gonzales and first baseman Evan White from the Seattle Mariners for right-handers Jackson Kowar and Cole Phillips on Sunday, kicking off the winter meetings with a money-dump deal by the Mariners that netted the Braves the high-upside outfielder.

The trade, which represents the second purge of veterans by the Mariners after they dealt third baseman Eugenio Suarez to Arizona earlier in the winter, will save Seattle a significant amount of future guaranteed money. While the Mariners included an unknown amount of cash in the deal, White and Gonzales are owed $29 million.
ESPN.com

Kelenic replaces Eddie Rosario who is now a free agent. Kelenic earned less than two years of service time so far, which means the Braves get his prime years at low cost. Gonzalez and White see their contracts balloon as time passes, but neither is owed that much money going forward. The Braves can certainly handle the added payroll for the added depth.

Once again, this is a trade that didn’t need to be a trade. Teams used to dump salary by selling contracts, but Bowie Kuhn put a stop to that when the Oakland Athletics tried to dump three stars for cash to the Yankees and Red Sox in the mid 1970s. So now teams throw in useless players to make it look like a trade. Rather than giving teams cash they can spend now, they just have money coming off the books. It’s inefficient, and that teams should be allowed to sell contracts.

December 1, 2023

The Soto Trade Problem

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Jon Heyman at the New York Post discusses the fruitless trade talks between the Yankees and Padres over Juan Soto. The last paragraph sums up the problem nicely:

The Yankees are willing to take on Soto’s full salary while surrendering players. But Soto’s value is somewhat limited a bit by the realization he’s a one-year rental. He’s already turned down a $440M, 15-year offer from his previous Washington Nationals team, and with a year to go before free agency, he’d be looking for $500M plus with a much higher average annual value than the $29M in that bid.
NYPost.com

For most teams, including the Yankees, it makes no sense to trade the farm for one year of Soto unless the team is fairly certain they are going to win a championship with him in the lineup. So unless Soto is willing to sign a long-term contract, a big trade chock full of prospects likely won’t happen. I would say the team for Soto would be a young team that has not won in a long time and needs one more piece. I don’t think Cleveland is quite there yet. Maybe the Mariners would be a good fit, and the Blue Jays. The Rays can rebuild quite quickly, so they might be able to afford the loss of prospects for aWorld Series win.

Actually, one team that would make sense for the trade would be the Padres! Maybe San Diego should keep Soto and hope he, Manny Machado, and Fernando Tatis Jr.produce so much offense the pitching doesn’t matter.

November 22, 2023

Suarez to the Diamondbacks

The Mariners traded third baseman Eugenio Suarez to the Diamondbacks for a back-up catcher and a young reliever:

The Mariners received right-hander Carlos Vargas and veteran catcher Seby Zavala for Suarez, who has belted at least 21 home runs in each of the past seven full seasons.

The reigning National League champion Diamondbacks were in need of a third baseman when three-time All-Star Evan Longoria became a free agent this month. Longoria, 38, appeared in just 74 games during the regular season but started 16 of 17 games at the hot corner during Arizona’s postseason run.
ESPN.com

Vargas pitched unimpressively in the minors, but his ability to limit home runs might be useful. He walks a ton of batters, however. Zavala .210/.275/.347 career slash line pretty much defines “great handler of pitchers.”

Diamondbacks fans gloat that they fleeced the Mariners, This is the type of deal many decades ago where Seattle would have sold Suarez’s contract for cash, but those deals are pretty much not allowed any more. The Arizona faithful should not gloat too much. Suarez peaked early. During his seasonal age 25 to age 27 years, he posted a .271/.364/.521 slash line and amassed All-Star and MVP consideration. Since then, his line looks like .221/.314/.430 with 648 K in 2128 PA, 30% of the time. This is not an MVP, and Seattle can probably find someone just as good for less money.

November 17, 2023

Bauers for Prospects

The Yankees traded Jake Bauers to the Brewers for two prospects:

After trading non-tender candidate Abraham Toro to the Oakland Athletics for a prospect, the Brewers are now on the opposite end of a similar deal. The club announced on Friday that it has acquired first baseman/outfielder Jake Bauers from the New York Yankees in exchange for outfield prospects Jace Avina and Brian Sanchez.
BrewCrewBall.com

The Brewers get a power bat they can control for three years for not a lot of money. Bauers pays for that power with a lot of outs, however.

Avina finished his age 20 season at single A where he was a walk machine with power. Sanchez, playing as an 18 year old in the Rookie League hits four trips in 128 PA with a very high OBP. If they develop right, the Yankees might have a nice table setter/ table clearer combination on their hands.

November 17, 2023

White Sox Restock

The White Sox traded reliever Aaron Bummer to the Braves for five players, the most well know being pitcher Michael Soroka.

The 30-year-old Bummer, whose 6.79 ERA this season was nearly twice his Fielding Independent Pitching number, will add to a deep Braves bullpen. Going back to Chicago are right-hander Michael Soroka — who was a candidate to be let go by Atlanta on Friday’s nontender deadline — left-hander Jared Shuster, shortstop Braden Shewmake, infielder Nicky Lopez and right-hander Riley Gowens.

Atlanta is banking on a return to form from Bummer, who struck out 78 in 58.1 innings and induced groundballs 58.2% of the time. 
ESPN.com

Bummer walks a lot of batters. That’s fine when his high K rate leads to few hits, but in the last two seasons that has not been the case. It’s quite possible the Braves organization identified the flaw, and maybe Bummer will improve in 2024.

There are question marks all over this trade. Soroka missed two seasons due to injury, then game back in 2023 to get hammered by home runs. His strength before the illjured list was denying the long ball. Jared Shuster did not see his high K rate of the minors translate the the majors. In fact, he struck out just 30 batters in 52 2/3 innings while walking 26. The high walk rate first emerged at AAA. Shortstop Braden Shewmake is hardly a prospect, as he will play 2024 as a 26-year-old and does a poor job of getting on base. Nicky Lopez is a decent utility infielder, but with no power.

That brings us to Riley Gowens, a pitcher with 15 2/3 professional innings under his belt. Fresh out of college, the seasonal age 23 player dominated rookie league and A level ball with twenty two K and six walks. His college ERA wasn’t very good.

If Soroka returns to form and Gowens can hold a good K/W at higher levels, this might be a good deal for Chicago. More than likely, this is an early signal that change is on the way for the franchise.

October 22, 2023

Trading a Manager

The Padres gave the Giants permission to interview San Diego manager Bob Melvin.

While league sources believed the possibility of Melvin emerging as the top candidate in San Francisco were logical, the rarity of one manager jumping to a division rival while still under contract dampened the possibility. Granting permission makes Melvin the clear favorite for the San Francisco job, though because he’s still under contract with the Padres for one year at $4 million, the team could pursue compensation if he is the Giants’ choice to replace Gabe Kapler.
ESPN.com

Why would Melvin be the favorite? I suspect that he’s a better manager of good, young talent than a manager of superstar talent. Very simply, how can someone not win with the level of ability the Padres front office provided? He had three superstar hitters and a great pitching staff.

There are some managers good at development, and some that are good at winning , and they are not always the same. Maybe Melvin is right for a developing Giants team, but the Giants might want someone else when the development is over.

Also, some of that young talent might need to go to the Padres to land Melvin if San Francisco decides he is the right man for the job.

August 1, 2023

The Two Jakes

The Marlins go the fast food route, acquiring Jake Burger from the White Sox for pitcher Jake Eder:

And Burger, 27, gives them a player who can add some instant power to the lineup as long as Miami can deal with the elevated swing-and-miss and strikeout rates. Burger, who is under team control through the 2028 season, entered Tuesday hitting just .214 but with 25 home runs — a mark that ties Jorge Soler for the most on Miami’s roster — to go along with 15 doubles, 52 RBI and 44 runs scored.

…

Burger has a career 31.6-percent strikeout rate. This season, he has 102 strikeouts in 323 plate appearances. He ranks among the worst in the league this season in strikeout rate (seventh percentile), swing-and-miss rate (35.4 percent, fifth percentile) and chase rate (38.9 percent, sixth percentile).
MiamiHerald.com

Of course, one should concentrate on what a player can do, not what he cannot do. Burger will give the team extra home run power. In a way, he diversifies the Marlins offense as he and Luis Arraez occupy different extremes of the offensive spectrum.

Eder is seasonal age 24. He strikes out a ton of batters but walks a ton also. So the Marlins get power without giving up too much.

The Marlins were not done, as they acquire Josh Bell from the Guardians and Ryan Weathers from the Padres. Bell played poorly for Cleveland this season, but his history is one of getting on base. I’m not sure what the Marlins see in Weathers, since none of this three-true outcomes are very good.

August 1, 2023

Sixth Man

The Phillies acquired Michael Lorenzen from the Tigers for a second base prospect:

Manager Rob Thomson told reporters, before Tuesday’s game in Miami, that Lorenzen will probably start on Thursday in the series finale, and that his club will install a six-man rotation for the time being.
ESPN.com

The article describes Lorenzen as potentially eating innings for the Phillies, although he never really filled that role. I suspect it will be easier to have him go long with more rest between starts.

The Tigers get Hao-Yu Lee, playing in A ball at seasonal age 20. So far, he does a great job of getting on base, so we might see him leading off for the Tigers in a couple of seasons.

August 1, 2023

Insurance Policy

The Blue Jays, in the wake of the Bo Bichette injury, picked up Paul DeJong from the Cardinals just in case Bichette turns out to be more than day to day. The Cardinals get pitcher Matt Svanson:

Svanson, 24, was the Blue Jays’ 13th-round draft selection in 2021 out of Lehigh University. He has combined to go 4-1 with a 1.11 ERA in 26 games, all in relief, split between Dunedin (Low-A) and Vancouver (High-A).
ESPN.com

Svanson is seasonal age 24, but still at A ball. He should be dominating that level, so the Cardinals did not get that much in return.

August 1, 2023

Sunk Costs

If nothing else, the Mets management showed this week that they understand the sunk cost fallacy. Earlier, they traded away Max Scherzer, and today they traded away their other high priced veteran pitcher, Justin Verlander:

The Astros reached agreement with the New York Mets on Tuesday to reacquire Verlander, bringing the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner back to Houston, the team announced Tuesday. Outfielder Drew Gilbert, rated as the Astros’ best prospect by MLB.com, is heading to New York in the deal, as is minor league outfielder Ryan Clifford.

…

His contract also included a $35 million option for 2025 that vests if he accumulates at least 140 innings in 2024, a circumstance that scared teams away. The Mets will pay $35 million out of the $58 million remaining on Verlander’s deal in 2023 and 2024 and $17.5 million of his 2025 option if it vests, sources told ESPN’s Jeff Passan.
ESPN.com

Signing the two old aces didn’t work out well for the Mets. Rather than keep on keeping on, the Mets are trying to retool quickly by bringing in young talent, paying off other teams to take the contracts.

Gilbert plays AA ball at seasonal age 22, and he’s been just okay there. Clifford, only seasonal age 19, is raking in A ball and looks like the better player long term.

And while the Mets are still paying a good portion of Verlander’s and Scherzer’s contracts, they have freed some money to reinvest in free agents come the winter.

July 31, 2023

DBacks Get a Closer

The Diamondbacks get closer Paul Sewald from the Mariners in exchange for three players. Sewald played three year for the Mets and pitched poorly. When he joined the Mariners he abandoned his change-up and became a fastball-slider pitcher. His ERA went from 5.50 with New York to 2.88 with Seattle. Arizona tried a couple of different closers, but Sewald should solidify the position.

Two of the three players the Mariners get in return are young hitters. Rookie Dominic Canzone hit .310/.377/.556 in the minors, including great numbers at AAA. He is seasonal age 25, so he should be major league ready by now. Ryan Bliss bloomed at AA this season, posting a .358/.414/.594 slash line as a middle infielder. That’s not a bad haul of younger talent.

July 31, 2023

Canha Get a Beer?

The Brewers acquire Mark Canha from the Mets in exchange for minor league pitcher Justin Jarvis:

“Mark brings a productive veteran bat and versatility to the roster as he can play both corner outfield spots and first base,” general manager Matt Arnold said. “He has valuable postseason experience, and we look forward to him being a major contributor for us down the stretch.”
JSOnline.com

Canha’s strength as a player is getting on base, and the Brewers are last in the NL with a team .312 OBP. Canha stands at .343 this season and .348 for his career. He should expand the Brewers offense, giving everyone else a few more plate appearances over the last two months of the season.

Jarvis pitched decently at AA, and at age 23 is trying his hand at AAA. It looks like he needs to get his walks under control.

July 31, 2023

Cubs Get Some Candy

The Cubs acquire Jeimer Candelario from the Nationals. Chicago traded away Candelario at the deadline in 2018. He will play third base and DH for his new and former team. Neither position is hitting all that well for Chicago, third basemen posting .234/.319/.412, while the DH’s come in at .223/.298/.380. Candelario is at .258/.342/.481.

Chicago changed course over the last week, becoming a team that would add talent after winning eight straight games and pushing over the .500 mark for the first time since early May. Instead of subtracting pending free-agents, they’re adding them, including Candelario. The team is also searching for bullpen arms before Tuesday’s trading deadline.
ESPN.com

Good. With the expanded playoff, more teams should be buyers at the deadline. This should also be a good way for the also rans to increase young talent in the organization.

Who did Washington get?

The #Cubs today acquired INF Jeimer Candelario and a cash consideration from the Washington Nationals for minor league LHP DJ Herz and minor league INF Kevin Made. pic.twitter.com/D6UovULOmo
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) July 31, 2023

DJ Herz owns a 3.80 ERA in 246 1/3 minor league innings. He owns a very high strikeout rate but is wild. I wonder if he wouldn’t do better as a reliever. Kevin Made is a light hitting shortstop, seasonal age 20 in 2023. He has time to improve.

July 31, 2023

Civale to the Rays

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The Guardians send starting pitcher Aaron Civale to the Rays for a first base prospect. The story buries the lede:

The move is a bit surprising from Cleveland’s standpoint since the Guardians are just one-half game out of first place in the AL Central and they have several pitchers, including ace Shane Bieber out with injuries.
Chron.com

Those injuries may be the reason. While the Guardians are just 1/2 game out in the division, they are six game out in the AL Wild Card race with five teams ahead of them for the third WC slot. If the starting pitching doesn’t get healthy soon, they may not have that much of a chance to win the division since the offense ranks low in runs scored. Civale pitched great since he returned from an injury in June, so Cleveland decided to sell high.

Kyle Manzardo is the prospect. He hit very well in the minors so far. In his first season at AAA he hit for power, but has not showed the on-base skills of his lower level stints. He is seasonal age 22, so he has plenty of time to adjust.

July 31, 2023

Veteran Depth

The Angels acquired Randal Grichuk and CJ Cron from the Rockies in return for two minor league pitchers:

The Los Angeles Angels bolstered their lineup in a trade with the Colorado Rockies on Sunday, acquiring infielder C.J. Cron and outfielder Randal Grichuk along with cash considerations for minor league LHP Mason Albright and RHP Jake Madden.
ESPN.com

The injury to Taylor Ward required the Angels to add depth. That said, neither Cron nor Grichuk hit well away from Coors Field in their time with the Rockies. This is more about the ability to put a team on the field than improving the offense. The pitchers sent to the Rockies are long and have not pitched much in the minor leagues. They strikeout batters, with also get hit enough to own high ERAs. Neither was a terribly high draft pick.

July 30, 2023

Rangers Add More Pitching

The Rangers make a deal with the Cardinals, trading prospects for pitching:

The Texas Rangers further fortified themselves for a championship run Sunday, acquiring left-handed starter Jordan Montgomery and right-handed reliever Chris Stratton from the St. Louis Cardinals one day after finalizing a deal for ace Max Scherzer.

With the best offense in baseball, the Rangers tapped into their plentiful minor league system, sending two top prospects — infielder Thomas Saggese and right-hander Tekoah Roby — along with left-handed reliever John King to St. Louis.
ESPN.com

Montgomery is a consistently good pitcher, and with Texas’s offense he should win a lot with a mid threes ERA. Stratton is what teams want in a reliever, high strikeouts and low walks. Both these players improve the team and provide depth.

As for the prospects, Saggese is tearing up AA at seasonal age 21, and did well there in a handful of plate appearances last season. Roby owns a 5.05 ERA as a 21 year old at AA, but his three true outcomes are much better than that ERA. His high K rate has not led to a low hit rate. King is seasonal age 28 and appears to be someone who the Cardinals can use right now to play out the season.

Saggese might be someone who can help the Cardinals next year.

July 30, 2023

Scherzer and Cash for Acuna

The Mets and Rangers completed the deal for Max Scherzer, sending the pitcher to Texas for top prospect Luisangel Acuna, younger brother of Ronald Acuna Jr. The Mets also included $35.7 million of Scherzer’s salary, and the pitcher agreed not to opt out of his contract.

Michael Bauman at FanGraphs posted an excellent write up of the deal. Basically, Scherzer is no longer an ace but is still very good, and Acuna likely helps the Mets next year. I do want to note this:

The big problem for Scherzer this year has been the home run ball; he’s allowed 1.92 HR/9, the third-highest mark among qualified starters. He’s getting dingered on more than twice as frequently as he did in 2022, and is allowing 0.72 more home runs per nine innings than the league average. You don’t need to be Bill James to figure out what kind of effect that’s had on his season.
FanGraphs.com

Of his three-true outcomes, Sherzer’s home run rate would be the weak spot. In general, that’s okay for a low walk, high strikeout pitcher. So few batters get on base against him that home runs do little damage. For his career, Scherzer allowed 206 home runs with the bases empty, 117 with men on base.

One reason the Rangers want Scherzer is for the playoffs. One needs to be careful with this type of pitcher in the playoffs, especially if the opposing pitchers are also really good. In a close pitching duel, the pitcher who gives up the home run more readily can pitch well but get in trouble. The classic example of this is game seven of the 2001 World Series. Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling both pitched brilliantly, the difference being Schilling allowing a home run to give New York a 2-1 lead. Schilling pitched a bit better than Clemens in that game, but the long ball nearly cost the Diamondbacks a world championship.

In the post season, Scherzer allowed ten home runs with the bases empty, eight with men on. It’s a reason he’s not lights out in the playoffs.

July 29, 2023

Rangers To the Max

The Mets are waiting for Max Scherzer to approve a trade to the Rangers. Scherzer planned to talk to the Mets brass about the Mets being sellers at the trade deadline:

“You have to talk to the brass. You have to understand what they see, what they’re going to do,” Scherzer said. “That’s the best I can tell you. I told you I wasn’t going to comment on this until Steve was going to sell. We traded Robertson. Now we need to have a conversation.”
ESPN.com

Waiving his no-trade clause was not the conversation he was expecting.

July 28, 2023

First Trade All the Pitchers

The White Sox trade three more pitchers on Friday, bringing their total so far to five. Could we see a three-man rotation with a four reliever pen?

First, Chicago sent Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly to the Dodgers:

In exchange, the White Sox received outfielder Trayce Thompson, who was originally drafted by Chicago in 2009, along with minor league starter Nick Nastrini and minor league reliever Jordan Leasure.

Lynn and Kelly join shortstop Amed Rosario and utilityman Enrique Hernandez among the Dodgers’ acquisitions this week, all of whom could be free agents after the season. Lynn and Kelly both have club options for next season and are making a combined $27.5 million in 2023.
ESPN.com

The Dodgers need arms, as they are in an unusual situation of tons of injuries and what appears to be a depleted farm system concerning pitching. They send Nastrini and Leasure to Chicago, a pair of high K, high walk pitchers who allows few hits.

Chicago then trades Kendall Graveman to the Astros:

The Houston Astros traded for veteran reliever Kendall Graveman on Friday, sending Triple-A catcher Korey Lee back to the Chicago White Sox in the deal.

…

Lee is hitting .283/.328/.406 with 18 doubles, five home runs, 32 RBIs, 37 runs scored and 12 stolen bases over 68 games this season with Triple-A Sugar Land in the Pacific Coast League. He currently is on the injured list with a strained right oblique.
ESPN.com

Graveman has been consistently good since the 2021 season. Lee’s minor league hitting numbers are not that impressive, so I hope he is a good defensive catcher.

Mostly it seems the White Sox are clearing their free agents now rather than get nothing for them at the end of the season.