For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top picks:
- 0.332 — Connor Wong batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.320 — Alec Bohm batting against Trevor Rogers.
- 0.320 — Jarren Duran batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.316 — Rafael Devers batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.306 — Reese McGuire batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.305 — Rob Refsnyder batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.304 — Jose Altuve batting against Casey Mize.
- 0.302 — Wilyer Abreu batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.301 — Adley Rutschman batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.295 — Tyler O’Neill batting against Patrick Corbin.
The Red Sox get to face Corbin at Fenway Park. Wong hardly walks. He does strikeout a lot, but owns a .407 BABIP this season and a .350 BABIP for his career. This looks like a good matchup in a good park for hitters.
The NN produces these batters with a high probability of a hit:
- 0.320, 0.719 — Alec Bohm batting against Trevor Rogers.
- 0.304, 0.716 — Jose Altuve batting against Casey Mize.
- 0.289, 0.711 — Harold Ramirez batting against Clarke Schmidt.
- 0.246, 0.710 — Luis Arraez batting against Tyler Glasnow.
- 0.332, 0.706 — Connor Wong batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.320, 0.703 — Jarren Duran batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.284, 0.698 — William Contreras batting against Lance Lynn.
- 0.316, 0.698 — Rafael Devers batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.301, 0.694 — Adley Rutschman batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.293, 0.692 — Jeremy Pena batting against Casey Mize.
Rogers saw his K rate drop and his opposition BABIP rise this season. Bohm ranks as one of the best hitters in the majors this season thanks to improved plate discipline.
Bohm ranks as the consensus top pick, with Wong the consensus double down choice.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!