The Washington Nationals and St. Louis Cardinals open the NLCS Friday night at 8 PM EDT. It’s the first NLCS for the Nationals (second if you include the Expos), and the 14th for the Cardinals. Here’s a comparison of the offenses:
| Statistic | Washington Nationals | St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Runs/Game | 5.39 (2nd) | 4.72 (10th) |
| Batting Avg. | .265 (1st-T) | .245 (11th) |
| OBP | .342 (1st) | .322 (9th) |
| Slugging Pct. | .454 (3rd) | .415 (12th) |
| Home Runs | 231 (6th) | 210 (12th) |
| Stolen Base % | 80% (4th-T) | 80% (4th-T) |
The Nationals clearly own the better offense. The Nationals do a great job of getting on base with both hits and walks. They hit for more power than the Cardinals, but the power gap doesn’t really come from home runs. While the Nationals lead the Cardinals by 21 home runs, they led by 76 in extra base hits.
I consider that good news for the Cardinals. In a series with good pitching, home runs can make a huge difference. The Cardinals are about as likely to deliver those blasts as the Nationals.
Here is a look at the pitching:
| Statistic | Washington Nationals | St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Earned Run Avg. | 4.27 (8th) | 3.80 (2nd) |
| Runs Allowed/Game | 4.47 (5th) | 4.09 (2nd) |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 9.4 (3rd-T) | 8.7 (10th) |
| Walks per 9 IP | 3.2 (5th-T) | 3.4 (8th-T) |
| Home Runs per 200 IP | 28.1 (6th) | 26.5 (2nd) |
| BABIP | .292 (7th-T) | .285 (3rd) |
It’s a mixed bag on the pitching side. The Cardinals are clearly better at preventing runs, as they were second in both ERA and total runs allowed per game. The Nationals pitchers were much better at striking out batters and a bit better at preventing walks. The Cardinals, however, did a better job of keeping the ball in the park, and that seems to be the best sign of a good pitching staff this season.
The Cardinals won the season series, taking five of the seven games. The Cardinals outscored the Nationals 26-17. The Cardinals out hit the Nationals 55-51, despite the Nationals striking out just 46 times compared to the Cardinals 83. Cardinals fielders were vacuuming out the Nationals balls in play, while the Cardinals hitters kept finding holes.
I estimate the Cardinals have a 52% chance of winning the series. I assume Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg will start games two, three, six, and seven. If the series go long, it will favor Washington.