Objective PMR, Catchers

The series on objective probabilistic model of range (PMR) continues by looking at catchers. Compared to the players standing behind the pitcher, range is a small component of a catcher’s defensive value. I’ll show teams as a whole at the position, plus individuals who were on the field for 750 balls in play. First the teams:

Objective PMR, team catchers, 2011. Model built on data from 2005-2010, visiting teams only.
Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	Actual DER	Predicted DER	Index
BAL	2754	59	45.8	0.021	0.017	128.8
TBA	3195	53	44.2	0.017	0.014	120.0
SEA	3171	55	46.2	0.017	0.015	119.2
PHI	3274	68	57.9	0.021	0.018	117.4
ANA	2794	49	42.5	0.018	0.015	115.3
CLE	2935	49	42.9	0.017	0.015	114.1
TEX	2721	51	45.7	0.019	0.017	111.6
OAK	2981	55	49.8	0.018	0.017	110.4
SLN	3294	56	50.8	0.017	0.015	110.2
FLO	3326	59	54.6	0.018	0.016	108.1
TOR	2830	44	41.4	0.016	0.015	106.2
NYN	3445	62	59.4	0.018	0.017	104.3
CHN	3084	53	50.9	0.017	0.017	104.1
SFN	1589	28	27.0	0.018	0.017	103.8
KCA	2889	45	43.7	0.016	0.015	103.1
MIL	3374	52	50.7	0.015	0.015	102.5
ARI	3269	61	59.9	0.019	0.018	101.8
ATL	3342	49	48.2	0.015	0.014	101.6
LAN	3015	58	57.2	0.019	0.019	101.3
BOS	2847	44	43.9	0.015	0.015	100.3
NYA	2855	46	47.8	0.016	0.017	96.2
HOU	3148	50	53.0	0.016	0.017	94.4
SDN	2957	49	52.0	0.017	0.018	94.3
DET	2573	36	38.3	0.014	0.015	94.0
MIN	2709	43	47.2	0.016	0.017	91.1
PIT	1679	26	28.9	0.015	0.017	90.1
WAS	3303	48	53.4	0.015	0.016	89.9
CIN	3267	50	59.4	0.015	0.018	84.2
COL	3401	40	51.8	0.012	0.015	77.3
CHA	2829	34	47.3	0.012	0.017	72.0

Note that catchers are involved in a small number of plays, so in addition to range being a small part of their value, the number for them are going to be highly variable. That said, the Orioles combination of Matt Wieters and Craig Tatum did a nice job for the Orioles. The White Sox, on the other hand did not get much range from their catchers. A.J. Pierzynski and Ramon Castro were both rather old.

The individuals:

Objective PMR, individual catchers, 2011. Model built on data from 2005-2010, visiting teams only. 750 balls in play, minimum.
Fielder	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	Actual DER	Predicted DER	Index
Rob Johnson	1025	26	18.7	0.025	0.018	139.2
Lou Marson	1365	28	20.2	0.021	0.015	138.3
Miguel Olivo	2331	46	33.3	0.020	0.014	138.2
Mike Napoli	945	21	15.4	0.022	0.016	136.8
Josh Thole	1853	44	32.4	0.024	0.017	135.9
J.P. Arencibia	2048	39	30.2	0.019	0.015	129.1
Hank Conger	845	16	12.8	0.019	0.015	125.2
Geovany Soto	2218	44	36.2	0.020	0.016	121.5
Matt Wieters	2128	41	34.5	0.019	0.016	118.9
Miguel Montero	2641	56	48.4	0.021	0.018	115.6
Carlos Ruiz	2339	47	42.3	0.020	0.018	111.2
Ramon Hernandez	1491	29	26.3	0.019	0.018	110.1
Russell Martin	2075	37	33.6	0.018	0.016	110.1
Rod Barajas	1522	32	29.2	0.021	0.019	109.6
Kurt Suzuki	2327	43	39.3	0.018	0.017	109.5
J.R. Towles	857	16	14.8	0.019	0.017	108.0
Yorvit Torrealba	1569	29	27.0	0.018	0.017	107.3
Kelly Shoppach	1384	22	20.6	0.016	0.015	106.7
Brian McCann	2450	37	34.7	0.015	0.014	106.5
John Jaso	1329	19	17.9	0.014	0.013	106.2
John Buck	2572	45	42.5	0.017	0.017	105.9
Dioner Navarro	912	18	17.2	0.020	0.019	104.9
Jeff Mathis	1341	22	21.3	0.016	0.016	103.3
Yadier Molina	2604	41	40.2	0.016	0.015	102.1
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	1734	27	26.6	0.016	0.015	101.5
Matt Treanor	1144	17	17.1	0.015	0.015	99.5
Alex Avila	2058	30	30.7	0.015	0.015	97.8
Humberto Quintero	1438	23	23.8	0.016	0.017	96.8
Jason Varitek	1069	16	16.8	0.015	0.016	95.4
David Ross	850	12	12.6	0.014	0.015	95.3
Carlos Santana	1570	21	22.7	0.013	0.014	92.5
Drew Butera	1341	21	23.3	0.016	0.017	90.2
Wilson Ramos	2216	31	35.2	0.014	0.016	88.0
Brayan Pena	1068	13	15.4	0.012	0.014	84.7
A.J. Pierzynski	1972	27	32.6	0.014	0.017	82.9
Jonathan Lucroy	2365	29	35.1	0.012	0.015	82.6
Carlos Corporan	815	11	13.8	0.013	0.017	80.0
Chris Iannetta	2208	26	33.2	0.012	0.015	78.3
Ronny Paulino	1239	15	20.3	0.012	0.016	73.9
Nick Hundley	1271	17	23.0	0.013	0.018	73.8
Koyie Hill	756	8	12.9	0.011	0.017	62.0
Ryan Hanigan	1530	16	28.3	0.010	0.018	56.6
Jose Molina	782	5	11.2	0.006	0.014	44.5

You can see that indeed, Wieters did a good job behind the plate, although Miguel Olivo comes out on top among starters. Mike Napoli’s good result shows how a small sample size can fool you, however. I don’t think most observers seem him as a great defensive catcher. Take this particular category with a grain of salt.

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at 20 Sunset Rd., Newark, DE 19711.

March 6, 2012

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