The Reds signed Nick Castellanos to a four-year, $64 million deal. It’s the same deal they gave Mike Moustakas. Moustakas produced 7.2 fWAR over the last three seasons, Castellanos produced 7.3 fWAR. Castellanos, however, is still in his prime, playing 2020 as a 28 year old. Moustakas will play as a 31 year old, so his expected future WAR should be a bit less than Castellanos.

It really looks like batters are being paid $7 million per expected WAR this off-season. That surprises me in many ways. Teams had wanted shorter contracts, and seem to be getting those. That way, they could pay more annually, but they are really not doing it. I’m also somewhat surprised the players are taking these offers. Why?

• It could be supply and demand. Good hitters are no longer rare. If you don’t get Castellanos, there might be someone else available.
• Players are taking a lower dollar per WAR to make a point about collusion that will be brought up in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiation.
• The teams are using a different WAR. They now have a lot more data than amateur statisticians, and may be applying it better.
• Teams may not trust the inflated offense to continue. We all know the ball is playing a big part in the increase in scoring. If the ball is corrected, some of these apparent good hitters might start failing.

It is tough to complain about $64 million, but I am very interested to see how this plays out.