The Astros, Mets, and Yankees are all in first place this morning. Which team surprised you the most so far? The Mets certainly talked like a team that would win going into the season. They’ve continued to win despite a spate of injuries and hold a 4 1/2 game lead in the NL East, the largest division lead in the majors. There’s not a lot of luck involved in the Mets record; they stand at 15-6 and the Pythagorean W-L record projects them at 14-7. They’ve had some timely hitting, and as a pitching staff allow just 1.9 BB per nine innings.

The Yankees came into the season old, with a number of potential stars fading due to injury. They are a team full of question marks, and so far some of those question marks provided positive results. Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira each show signs of their old power. Michael Pineda and Masahiro Tanaka are striking out batters at a high rate. Even CC Sabathia has some positives despite his high ERA. They are scoring over five runs a game and allowing less than four. In a very evenly matched division, they look like a team that can win.

The Astros brought in some veterans over the winter to shore up a young team. That’s usually a move clubs make when they are ready to win, otherwise the investment is just not worth it. So far, the Astros have been correct. They have a starting rotation that keeps them in the game, and a lights-out bullpen. That’s good for the second best ERA in the American League. Their offense is okay, but with their pitchers keeping runs off the board they only need to be okay. The batters lead the AL in both strikeouts and home runs (tied). The do one thing well offensively, but it’s the one thing that can lead to a lot of runs.

To me the biggest surprise is the Astros, since they face a division with stiff competition. The Athletics, Angels, and Mariners are all good teams. The Mets came into the season with a good, young pitching staff. The Yankees were underestimated because people just hate the Yankees, and the A-Rod haters could not imagine that two new hips might restore his swing. Maybe the Astros shouldn’t be such a surprise, since they have some of the best minds in baseball working in the front office. What do you think?