Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
March 13, 2009
Finding the Silver Lining
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Richard Durrett liked what he saw from Brandon McCarthy Thursday:

You could make an argument that this was McCarthy's best outing since Aug. 5, 2007, when he had a quality start, allowing two runs in six innings. By my count, yesterday was the first time he'd pitched four scoreless innings since Sept. 20, 2007.

McCarthy apparently felt good, had no lingering problems with his shoulder, which was tight enough to force him to miss his previous start.

I'll feel better about McCarthy when he starts the regular season well.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:05 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
March 10, 2009
No to Morrow
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Brandon Morrow suffers a setback after a bullpen session and won't make the Mariners starting rotation out of spring training.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:58 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Run Visualizations
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FX Visualizations presents graphs of run values by pitch locations. Great stuff, with the best place to put a pitch turning out to be the inside edges of the strike zone.

Hat tip, Beyond the Boxscore.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:04 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
March 09, 2009
Kazmir Feels Good
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Scott Kazmir liked his first spring training outing:

"Everything felt incredible; that's seriously the best my arm has ever felt," he said. "At the same time, I felt like I wanted to take it easy this first start. I knew once I got out there and got a hitter out there in a real game, the adrenaline was going to be there so I didn't want to overdo it."

Kazmir said he went "about 85 percent," and it caught up with him in the second inning. The All-Star left-hander allowed three hits in his last inning of work, including David Winfree's RBI double.

He'll be the number 2 pitcher in the Rays rotation as Joe Maddon wants to split Shields and Garza with the lefty.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:36 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Holland on the Rise
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Inside Corner notes that the Rangers pitching Derek Holland three innings against the Cubs indicates he may be coming to the majors earlier than expected.

After putting together one of the greatest seasons by any Rangers minor league pitcher in memory, there's no doubt that Holland is coming. The only question is how soon. Yesterday may have been an early hint that he may be moving up to the front of the line to step into the Texas rotation when one of the five starters goes down.

Since surrendering a pair of homers (and fanning two) in one inning during his first appearance of the spring last week, Holland has allowed one run on six hits and a walk in 4.1 innings since. And even throwing out the first game, that's the worst stretch of pitching Holland has delivered in more than a year.

There's also a nice discussion of Holland's mechanics.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:26 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
March 04, 2009
The Other Zimmermann
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Jordan Zimmermann continues to be a shining light in a dark Washington Nationals spring training:

His line through two spring training appearances: five innings, no hits, six strikeouts, no walks.

Manager Manny Acta, after the game, spoke of Zimmermann's "electric" four-pitch repertoire. Pitching coach Randy St. Claire spoke of Zimmerman's "great" arm and "great" mechanics and, yes, "great" feel for pitching.

Yes, it's just five innings, but the Nationals don't have too much to be excited about right now.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 09:06 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
New Curve
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Like Brandon McCarthy, Phil Hughes is abandoning his old curve ball. While McCarthy is developing a slider, Phil works on a power curve:

Hughes explained that he's throwing his curve with the same arm speed as his fastball. So instead of a big loop (picture Mike Mussina's curve), it goes to the plate on a straighter plane but still has some action as it gets there. It's how A.J. Burnett throws his curve.

Hughes devoted a lot of time in the Arizona Fall League to working on that particular pitch. "It's hard to change because you get used to throwing a pitch a certain way," he said. "In games, you tend to go back to what is comfortable. But they've been staying on me to throw the power curve more. I have to trust it and I do."

Good to see these young pitchers adjusting their games for the majors.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:42 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
March 03, 2009
Speed In and Out
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On Sunday I looked at the effect of speed on getting a good result in different areas of the strike zone. The result was interesting as high speed pitches produced a higher percentage of favorable results, but low speed pitches out performed expectations of the probabilistic model. I was wondering what caused this, and decided to test a hypothesis that it had something to do with the location of these pitches in and out of the strike zone. Fast pitches tend to be straighter; they have less time to curve. If a pitcher needs to throw a strike, a fast pitch is the easiest one to control and put in the strike zone. Of course, these pitches in the strike zone are also easier to hit.

On the other hand, slow pitches tend to be breaking balls, pitches that fool batters. A slow pitch in the strike zone should get hammered, but pitchers get good results by getting batters to chase them out of the strike zone.

The following table shows the hypothesis has some validity. I defined an area as in the strike zone if the positive probability outcome was greater or equal to .7. The in ratio shows the ratio of the actual success rate in the strike zone to the expected success rate in the strike zone. A number over 100 indicates better than expected success. The out ratio is the same for pitches out of the strike zone.

SpeedPitchesIn RatioOut Ratio
100253106.76110.26
99818101.6496.20
982122101.65106.02
975093101.2299.28
969539101.6895.02
9515424101.1692.60
9421580101.0391.71
9327943100.2591.56
923275199.8592.11
913499399.8591.74
903464899.6289.29
893128399.6091.09
882700098.6493.71
8723559100.2597.84
862115098.92103.82
851990399.85109.52
8419123101.42112.06
8318613100.14113.77
821753099.94117.67
811581299.36112.67
8013483100.02113.52
791113699.53116.01
789528100.64107.46
778239100.67110.07
766903100.57104.89
755719100.46105.88
74467299.57101.36
73368797.3896.81
722934101.78100.63
71237997.77101.70
701808101.65104.59
69140199.1996.59
68123499.43104.57
6792798.9499.43
6668297.8893.14
6543493.3498.54
64276101.5493.06

As you can see, the faster pitches are more effective in the strike zone, the off-speed pitches are more effective out of the strike zone. For every speed from 74 MPH to 86 MPH, a higher ratio exists outside the zone. The PITCH f/x data is pretty much confirming what I would expect.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 10:28 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
A Little Revenge
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Randy Johnson pitched a fine three innings against his old team, the Arizona Diamondbacks, this afternoon.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:49 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Slider or Curve?
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Richard Durrett interviews Brandon McCarthy about his change from a curve ball to a slider as his third pitch. McCarthy comes off as very knowledgeable about why he's making the change. On top of that, it's less painful to throw:

Is the slider easier on your arm than the curve? I always thought it was the other way around.

I don't really know in that regard. I just know the way I throw the curve was a lot of work. I don't feel that with the slider. I feel it if I throw a curve and I noticed that last year. All I know is now I don't feel any pain with the slider. I try to throw it just like a fastball. I let the grip throw the pitch and get over it like a fastball and let it work as opposed to really yanking it down the way you have to with the curve ball. I don't know if scientifically that makes sense, but for me it's easier.

There's also a good bit about how it's much easier to fool minor league batters with his curve, and how the slider looks more like his fastball. Brandon says he got in trouble last year when his changeup wasn't working, because batters could see the curve from his arm angle. The slider is more difficult to detect.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 12:19 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Cry Havoc
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Redleg Nation notices an interesting connection between Dusty Baker's call for havoc on the basepaths and the Red starting rotation.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 08:32 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
March 02, 2009
The Big W
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Bleeding Blue and Teal looks at Stephen Strasburg's mechanics and wonders how much teams should consider this in drafting players. He gives Tim Lincecum as an example:

Teams do indeed pass guys up because of durability concerns. I was talking to BBT commentor/sometimes writer Dustin Shires about this and he immediately brought up Tim Lincecum, who produced insane numbers with the University of Washington and had possibly the best pure stuff of anyone in the draft class, but was passed up by several teams because of his slight build and unorthodox delivery. Now, Lincecum's mechanics have since been proved to be sound and even revolutionary, but that's not the point. Teams didn't know how he would hold up so they passed up on him.

I'm not sure Tim's mechanics are proved sound just yet. He threw a lot of innings in 2008. If he holds up in 2009, then I'd say there's pretty good proof that he's sound, and I suspect young pitchers will start beating a path to the door of Tim's father.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 11:38 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
March 01, 2009
Speed Zones
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Yesterday I introduced a probabilistic model of the strike zone using PITCHf/x data. Today, I'd like to use that data to see how speed effects outcomes.

The model is built on three parameters, the X and Z coordinates of where the ball crosses the plate and the handedness of the batter. A positive probability outcome is calculated for each set of parameters, positive from the pitcher's point of view. So any pitch that does not result in a ball or a hit credited to the batter is a positive outcome.

For any set of pitches, the sum of the probabilities provides the expected number of positive outcomes. We can then compare that to the actual number of positive outcomes to see if the set of pitches was effective. Higher than expected positive outcomes indicate an effective set of pitches. Lower than expected positive outcomes indicate the opposite.

For this study, pitches are divided into sets by speed, rounded to the nearest mile per hour (MPH).

The following table shows the effectiveness of speed on pitches. The column definitions:

  • Speed, in MPH. There must be 200 pitches at that speed to be included in the table.
  • Pitches, total for that speed.
  • Positives, the number of pitches with a positive result
  • Pct. Pos., the percentage of the total pitches resulting in a positive outcome.
  • Exp. Positives, the expected number of positives for those pitches based on the model.
  • Exp. Pct., the percentage based on Exp. Positives.
  • Ratio, 100*Positives/Exp. Positives. 100 meets expectations, over 100 exceeds expectations.
Effectiveness of Speed
SpeedPitchesPositivesPct. Pos.Exp. PositivesExp. Pct.Ratio
10025315661.7144.657.2107.88
9981848158.8480.758.8100.07
982122129060.81252.859.0102.97
975093301059.12991.158.7100.63
969539560058.75616.158.999.71
9515424899858.39119.859.198.66
94215801258358.312804.159.398.27
93279431610057.616487.059.097.65
92327511891757.819392.759.297.55
91349932008057.420611.158.997.42
90346481966556.820367.258.896.55
89312831779356.918331.358.697.06
88270001512256.015570.757.797.12
87235591333256.613400.056.999.49
86211501189056.211827.355.9100.53
85199031119156.210857.854.6103.07
84191231081856.610289.753.8105.13
83186131033755.59843.852.9105.01
8217530992456.69358.953.4106.04
8115812873855.38399.653.1104.03
8013483745355.37108.252.7104.85
7911136613455.15823.252.3105.34
789528517754.35027.152.8102.98
778239448854.54318.852.4103.92
766903364952.93573.751.8102.11
755719306653.62996.052.4102.34
744672241951.82414.551.7100.19
733687187250.81926.152.297.19
722934158053.91557.853.1101.42
712379124152.21253.052.799.04
70180894652.3921.951.0102.61
69140170050.0712.050.898.31
68123463951.8632.851.3100.97
6792746349.9467.350.499.08
6668231646.3328.248.196.30
6543419845.6208.948.194.78
6427612344.6124.345.098.97

I did not expect this result. In general, I would have guessed that faster pitches would yield better results. This only appears to be true at very high speeds, however. Batters appears to find pitches thrown 97 MPH or better difficult to handle, but they have few problems with pitches in the low 90's. The most effective speeds for pitchers are between 75 and 85 MPH.

Note, however, that in terms of percentage, high speed pitches produce more good outcomes than low speed pitches. Low speed pitches result in a better than expected outcomes for a given location. Getting batters to swing at pitches in the dirt will do that.

This result seems to be in line with the idea that all major league batters can hit a fastball. How they hit the off-speed pitches, however, is what makes them a major league hitter. Twins fans should be very happy, given this data, that Francisco Liriano is bringing back his changeup.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:37 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
A Tale of Two Elbows
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Johan Santana believes the work he did to test his knee led to his current elbow irritation:

Santana, who had arthroscopic surgery Oct. 1 on torn cartilage in his left knee, didn't think the tightness in his elbow was related to rushing back from the knee surgery too soon, but rather from overuse early in camp.

"I've been throwing bullpens here every other day, and I don't think I've ever done that in the past," Santana said Thursday. "The reason why is because we wanted to test my knee and make sure everything is fine, throwing every other day off the mound."

Santana threw off a mound for the first time since the offseason surgery on Feb. 10 and has faced no setbacks with the leg.

However it happened, he has an irritated triceps tendon.

Meanwhile, Johan's former teammate Francisco Liriano continues his recovery from Tommy John surgery. Liriano abandoned his fast slider and is rediscovering his changeup:

Until he began flinging sliders with abandon, Liriano says, he had a changeup that buckled knees. "In '02, '03, changeup was my best pitch," the 25-year-old said. "When I learned to throw my slider, I stopped throwing it." There's a certain symmetry, then, that when Tommy John surgery forced him to stop throwing the kamikaze slider, he found his changeup again. Liriano began using it occasionally, to complement his fastball/slider fundamentals, last season, and kept working on it this winter.

He threw a few changeups past his teammates last week during live batting practice, as manager Ron Gardenhire watched. The pitch made a sharp impression on the manager.

"His changeup is unbelievable," said Gardenhire, who spent a half-dozen seasons watching Johan Santana master the same pitch. "It's really good. It's a very good 'out' pitch for him - that's how good it is."

The fastball impresses, but it's often the changeup that makes a pitcher great.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:08 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 28, 2009
Probabilistic Strike Zone Model
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The last few days I've been working with the pitch f/x data, with the idea of applying some kind of probabilistic model to the strike zone. I started with a very simple model to learn how to get around the data and to prove the concept.

My initial model looks at the chance of positive and negatives outcomes for pitchers. A negative outcome is a called ball, or a ball in play resulting in a hit. Positive outcomes are all others. I divide the X and Z axes into three inch lengths, and look at the results when a ball passes through the defined three by three area. I use the following formula for the x coordinate:

round((12*(p.px+12))/3, 0)

Where p.px is the distance from the center of the plate in feet. The plus twelve makes everything positive. This makes 48 the center of the plate.

For the Z axis, I use the same formula, substituting p.pz for p.px. In this case 48 represents the ground. The computed px and pz together then define a zone. Some will be in the strike zone, some will be out, and some will be on the edge, both in and out of the zone.

I then build the model based on the computed px, pz, and the batter side (left or right). It's the number of positives in the zone divided by the total number of pitches in the zone. The following two tables show the model for zones with at least 200 pitches.

Due to the formatting of the blog, it's easier to read this at the permalink.

Right-handed Hitters,2007-2008
Strike Zone, Catcher View4041424344454647484950515253545556
66--------.127--------
65----.143.166.228.256.243.201.206------
64---.158.219.288.350.337.377.327.268.212.120.054---
63--.106.211.331.411.485.519.530.465.401.290.177.100---
62-.084.188.275.425.557.673.719.719.669.600.431.267.142.059--
61-.084.240.359.592.748.822.854.864.848.800.689.448.204.099.046-
60-.092.257.423.701.822.870.879.885.893.895.830.619.312.143.082-
59.062.116.254.484.728.859.868.856.862.874.893.859.685.341.197.102.045
58-.140.279.504.753.842.859.857.863.862.873.870.721.416.184.108.037
57-.151.248.497.716.826.850.838.859.863.874.863.689.371.169.119.075
56-.107.257.441.668.769.785.825.835.848.853.800.579.321.196.123.060
55-.085.235.348.509.613.663.685.719.711.699.593.420.257.203.101.095
54--.165.272.372.445.444.500.488.488.448.380.288.210.142.126.065
53---.257.304.340.362.398.380.389.321.306.246.203.156.109.076
52---.136.220.259.286.290.325.312.310.243.231.178.138.112-
51-----.212.254.211.239.242.247.226.180.128.096.069-
50--------.169.196.222.142.146.126.094--
Left-handed Batters
Strike Zone, Catcher View404142434445464748495051525354
65-----.148-.156-------
64--.015.078.121.234.288.344.414.313.303----
63-.045.062.094.211.319.468.538.557.543.428.337.218--
62.024.020.090.196.376.526.616.695.697.687.589.462.301.173-
61.016.039.112.298.610.792.837.827.850.838.773.603.396.168-
60.021.074.193.481.773.895.879.883.877.858.855.693.513.270-
59.055.126.267.570.843.883.882.877.861.840.858.790.551.287.169
58.055.120.266.618.860.886.877.863.838.847.836.760.536.290.184
57.042.104.289.590.849.872.868.843.851.847.848.768.525.277.151
56.077.111.269.514.780.858.854.833.822.831.784.651.458.289.126
55-.130.189.380.583.670.709.713.705.658.600.520.338.263.168
54-.098.168.284.353.437.478.501.479.463.456.383.303.205.094
53--.141.206.280.330.387.387.427.354.342.298.205.211-
52---.197.209.261.331.316.348.311.251.223.250--
51----.222.270.236.255.282.267.197.182---
50-------.181.168.192.190----

I actually thought there would be a bigger difference between throwing the ball down the middle of the plate versus throwing on the edges. Pitchers do a bit better to the catcher's right, regardless of batter handedness. Up in the zone is better for pitchers than down in the zone, at least over the heart of the plate.

Of course, the problem with the look at the data is that an out counts just as much in the pitcher's favor as strike one called. There are many other parameters to take into account, including speed and break. This is just a start.

Correction: I fixed the table vs. LHB. When I ran the script that creates the table, I only changed the hand in one of the two queries.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:11 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
February 27, 2009
Sore Ace
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Brandon Webb was scratched from his start with a sore forearm. That's Johan Santana and Webb scratched this week with minor injuries. That's a pair of aces causing their fans a bit of worry.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:36 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bounce Back?
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Richard Durrett predicts a good year for Kevin Millwood. The Bill James projections are close on ERA, while Chone and Marcel are not that forgiving. With the offense in Texas, an ERA in the low fours should win Kevin more than he loses.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:18 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 26, 2009
Shoulder Test
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Micah Owings says he feels fine after pitching Thursday:

The Arizona Diamondbacks shut down Owings the last two months due to a shoulder injury, and when he was acquired in the Adam Dunn trade, he did nothing but pinch-hit for the Reds.

"Everything felt good for the first time -- my arm felt good, which is the most important thing. I was able to pitch an inning and then go back out.

"After not pitching for so long and doing all the rehab, you are a little unsure going back out. I've never had an arm issue, but I was fine."

I wonder if Owings will DH during interleague games.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:14 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Home Field Advantage
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BABIP for pitchers as a group over the years is always lower at home than on the road.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:40 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 25, 2009
The House that Joba Built
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Via My Baseball Bias, Joe Girardi's projected rotation should put Joba Chamberlain on the mound for the first regular season game at the new Yankee Stadium:

Girardi said he had lined up the pitchers all the way through the 162-game schedule, and he projects Chamberlain for 30 starts. "I'm not sure we skipped him at any point," Girardi added.

That got me to thinking. The first game at the new Yankee Stadium is the Yankees' 10th game of the season - the end of the second time through the rotation. If Chamberlain is not going to be skipped, does that mean he starts the home opener?

"I don't really want to give up that, because a lot of things could happen in spring training that could change that," Girardi said. "I can't give that to you yet."

Joba does have a Ruthian look to him, so it would be appropriate.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:02 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
February 24, 2009
A Short but Encouraging Outing
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Erik Bedard appears to be ahead of schedule after a brief appearance in an intrasquad game today.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:29 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Faster and Better
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The Mariners want their pitchers working faster and throwing better pitches. If you had to pick between the two, however, I'll take the second.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:16 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 22, 2009
Good News
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Anibal Sanchez is healthy enough to start the spring opener for the Marlins.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:35 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Back on the D-Train
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Ian Casselberry hopes the early signs of Dontrelle Willis' recovery continue through the season. I do too. Dontrelle is one of the great characters of the game today, and it would be a pity for the game to lose him at a young age.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:22 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 21, 2009
Wood Working
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Chris Carpenter threw against batters today, and Tony La Russa is happy:

"The fact that he's actually on the field is exciting," La Russa said. "We've only seen this how many times? You can count it on less than two hands how many times in the last two years we've actually seen him facing a hitter. So this is a big day, and a fun day." Though he struggled at times with the location of his fastball, Carpenter snapped off several strong breaking balls.

"My arm felt great," Carpenter said. "My location was off a bit at the beginning, but I felt like the last 10 or so (pitches) I was hitting my spot pretty good. It was just fun to get back out there and be a part of it."

It sounds like he still has a long way to go, but there's no doubt a healthy Carpenter makes the Cardinals' rotation much stronger.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:33 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bullpen Insurance
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The Rays signed Jason Isringhausen to a minor league deal.

Isringhausen was brought on board with the idea that if healthy, he may be able to compete for the closer job with Troy Percival, or if nothing else, provide more depth in case Percival can not make a full recovery from back surgery.

I guess the idea is that if you have two injured closers, one might actually heal.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:57 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 20, 2009
Good News
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Barry Zito is showing good control early on.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:34 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 19, 2009
Gordon Pain Free
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Tom Gordon's nerve surgery worked:

The right-hander, whom the Diamondbacks signed to a one-year deal earlier this month, is coming off ulnar nerve transposition surgery on his right elbow, a procedure in which the nerve is moved to a different area.

And so far, Gordon couldn't be more encouraged by how he feels.

"Every single day since 2006, I've had soreness, aching and sharp pain," said Gordon, who has also had shoulder problems. "This is just a really good feeling."

So now the question is can the lack of pain make up for three years of aging? If he can return to his 2005 form, the DBacks made a great deal.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:00 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 18, 2009
Lighter Silva
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Carlos Silva lost 35 pounds over the winter.

Silva devoured large, late dinners while reaching 285 pounds. Everything else plummeted.

He went 4-15 with a career-worst 6.46 ERA in his first season with the Mariners. He was 1-15 in his final 23 starts. His usually jolly nature turned jaded. He complained teammates weren't pulling their own, um, weight. His own added pounds gave him problems with his back.

"I don't feel I did anything for this team," he said.

Now, after painful yoga training and a nutritionist fine tuning his diet -- cutting meals from two steaks to one; prohibiting meals after 7 p.m.; encouraging him to go to sleep by 9:30 instead of midnight -- Silva has lost 35 pounds.

"A lot of changes. A whole different life. It feels really good," Silva said proudly.

It's too bad he got to the point where he needed to lose the weight in the first place. Will it matter? Will a lighter Silva post a lighter ERA?

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:35 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Rotation Regression?
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T.J. Simers doesn't think much of the Dodgers rotation:

This year the Dodgers' choice for opening day starter is a guy coming off a broken leg or another coming off a sore shoulder. At last they won't have to worry about pitching come the playoffs.

In the meantime, though, it'd be nice to know how effective Manny might be out of the stretch.

If Manny wants to win, he may actually have a better chance with the Giants. Given San Francisco's pitching staff, Manny might generate enough offense on his own to push the team well over .500. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:09 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 17, 2009
Penny for your Thoughts
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Larry Bowa pulls no punches giving his opinion of Brad Penny.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:45 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
What Does His Mii Look Like?
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Heath Bell lost 25 pounds using a Wii Fit. We bought one about a week and a half ago, and I must admit it's both fun to use and gives you a decent workout. The way it makes your Mii look fat after it weighs you is a big motivator.

By the way, my daughter nailed my Mii. It looks exactly like me.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:50 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Into the Breach?
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Odalis Perez may in breach of his contract by the end of the day. He's trying to hold out for more money:

First of all, the mandatory report date, per arrangements in the current collective bargaining agreement, is Feb. 22. With one exception. For players who will be competing in the World Baseball Classic, the mandatory report date is Feb. 17 -- today. Perez said that he plans to represent the Dominican Republic in the WBC, and that potentially opens the door for Perez to be in breach of contract by day's end.

But that brings up the second issue.

The Nationals are insisting that Perez's contract has been approved, signed and sealed. Perez might have grounds to argue otherwise, though, because his contract does not yet appear in the database of MLBPA-approved contracts. Perez wants to improve on the non-guaranteed minor league deal he signed with Washington almost two weeks ago, and the first way to do that is to argue against the validity of his current deal.

Good job by Jim Bowden here making the signing of the contract crystal clear.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:17 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 16, 2009
Scouting Uehara
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Oriole Central talks to Michael Westbay, an expert on Japanese baseball, about Koji Uehara.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:31 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 12, 2009
Be Careful What You Wish For
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Red Sox catching prospect Mark Wagner says Clay Buchholz is in mid-season form. He obviously didn't look at Clay's number in July and August last year. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:49 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 09, 2009
Strikeouts and Grounders
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Rich Lederer examines how strikeouts and grounders induced relate to pitcher success. The best pitchers appear to have high percentage of both. Two of those, Sabathia and Burnett signed with the Yankees this winter.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:05 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 02, 2009
Fishy News
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FishStripes posts the latest news on Andrew Miller and Anibal Sanchez.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:47 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
January 28, 2009
Summing Up Joba and Jon
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Joba Chamberlain and Jon Lester participated in a Q&A at Sacred Heart University Tuesday night. For the most part, the questions to them were softballs, but the two still managed to show their humor and provide some insights into their lives.

Both players were given a chance to criticize others. Joba was asked about Joe Torre and Alex Rodriguez. Joba basically said that none of the players have read the book, so he couldn't comment on that, but he was glad to start with Torre as his first manager. Chamberlain talked about Rodriguez's work ethic, the intensity he brought to the game, intensity to the point of being obsessed. Asked if he thought Alex should tone down his personal life, Joba pointed to A-Rod's stats and said there wasn't a problem.

Lester described how Alex was the toughest hitter to face on the Yankees. Jon praised Alex for having a plan at the plate and sticking to it. Jon was given a chance to dis Manny Ramirez, but didn't take the bait. He also praised Manny's work, and said he was a great teammate.

Lester also praised his manager, Terry Francona. He's been impressed with Terry's preparation, how he even anticipates reporter questions and writes down possible answers before he takes questions. That kind of preparation goes into the game as well.

Lester also talked about how his bout with cancer changed his outlook. Before, the game he played was work. He worried about every pitch, worried about his place on the team. Now, it's just fun. That's a good change in perspective.

Joba says as far as he knows, he'll be a starter this year. When asked if he has a preference to start of relieve, Joba simply said, "No."

Chamberlain was also asked about the DUI. He came out honestly and said he made a mistake and was very lucky no one was hurt. He didn't give any excuses, said it's easy to call for a ride or give up your keys, and pledged not to do it again.

Lester was very humble about his fight with cancer, saying that he didn't do anything different from anyone else faced with the disease. He kept his focus on Feb. 1, the day to report to spring training. He was also lucky to come down with a very treatable form of cancer.

Both men were gracious in their praise of each other and the other team. The Harvard-Yale effect was shown off last night, however. When asked about the rivalry, Lester said Red Sox players were well into it in single-A ball. Joba noted he wasn't aware of it until he got to the majors, noting it hit him right away with his first ejection.

It was difficult to hear at times at it took the technical crew a while to adjust the sound system to the auditorium. Also, I tried to cover the event with just my Blackberry storm. Unfortunately, I could not get my camera to zoom, and the lighting precluded me from getting decent pictures. The twitter updates worked very well, however, with the exception my phone changed Manny to nanny.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:02 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
January 27, 2009
Talk Tonight
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I'll be headed to Bridgeport, CT for tonight's forum with Joba Chamberlain and Jon Lester. I'll try to blog live from my phone, however, I may go with Twitter.

If you have any questions you'd like ask, please feel to leave them in the comments.

Update: If this works, Twitter updates will appear here:

    follow me on Twitter

    Update: That works, you just need to refresh the page.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 12:45 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    January 23, 2009
    Measuring Strikeouts
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    Rich Lederer ranks pitchers by strikeouts per 100 pitches, which he feels is a better measure of pitching ability than K per 9.

    The link comes via River Ave. Blues who notes:

    Three Yankees finished in the top six, as Joba came in third (6.90), CC Sabathia fourth (6.58) and AJ Burnett sixth (6.33).

    This is why I like those two signings. They move the Yankees back to their successful days of the late 1990s and early aughties when the staff struck out batters from top to bottom. With a poor defense behind them, a high strikeout staff covers that weakness, allowing for the strong offense to dominate.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 01:34 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    January 17, 2009
    The Eyes have It
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    Carlos Zambrano decided to undergo corrective surgery on hist eyes:

    Which makes the news Friday that he plans to have corrective laser surgery on his right eye early next month one more eyebrow raiser, if not a full-blown concern, as he tries to rebound off a split-personality finish to a 2008 season that included his first shoulder-injury scare.

    ''I'm not blind,'' said Zambrano, who has an eye-doctor appointment today and seemed to suggest the Lasik-type surgery is no big deal. ''Just something wrong in my eyes that has to be corrected.''

    Zambrano, the highest-profile active player attending Friday's opening events at Cubs Convention downtown, said things looked ''fuzzy'' at times when he pitched last year -- which matched attempts to explain his demeanor in the second half as his performance declined.

    This is pretty common now. Are people really worried about it?

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:58 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
    January 16, 2009
    Something a Cave Man Can't Do
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    It appears our modern day pitchers were not descended from Neanderthals.

    She explained to Discovery News that modern athletes, like baseball pitchers and handball players, often show a characteristic backward displacement at the shoulder joint. Usually just one joint shows this, since most people have a preferred throwing arm.

    The anthropologists found this telltale skeletal characteristic in the early modern European fossils, but not in the Neanderthals.

    They need to work this into a GIECO ad somehow.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 11:55 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    January 14, 2009
    Generating Interest
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    The Orioles signing of Koji Uehara is already generating buzz:

    Uehara, who passed his physical and finalized a two-year, $10 million, incentive-laden deal with the Orioles, has been followed closely by the Japanese media since landing in the United States on Sunday. There were 25 reporters who awaited his arrival at Washington Dulles International Airport and a handful of television crews that waited outside Camden Yards on Monday while the 33-year-old was taking his physical elsewhere.

    The Orioles have gotten such a significant response for today's noon news conference that they moved it to a bigger room on another floor in the warehouse to accommodate the media.

    The Orioles are going to use him as a starter, although two years ago he was moved to the bullpen. His innings were down in 2008 due to his participation in the Olympics. He's going to be the Orioles #2 starter, and if his control is anything like it was in Japan, he'll be the exact opposite of Daniel Cabrera. I just wonder if he's going to have the stamina to last the season given lack of work the last two years.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:06 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    January 11, 2009
    Braves Nab Kawakami
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    The Atlanta Braves beat out the Baltimore Orioles for the services of Kenshin Kawakami:

    Cox said he has watched Kawakami on film "and he looked very good. He was able to throw the ball right where he wanted to with three or four pitches."

    Kawakami has great control. He walked just 1.9 batters in Japan. Compare that to Kei Igawa, who walked 2.9 and Daisuke Matsuzaka who walked 3.2 per 9. He doesn't strike out as many as those two did , but his 7.3 per nine is okay. We'll see which end of the spectrum he falls into.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 10:24 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    The Inverted W
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    Bleeding Blue and Teal looks for some positive things to say about pitching prospect Nathan Adcock. Unfortunately, he notices a similarity to an oft injured pitcher.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:59 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    January 09, 2009
    Rotation, Rotation, Rotation
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    R.J. Anderson at FanGraphs wonders if the Orioles will repeat with the worst rotation in baseball.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 08:29 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    January 08, 2009
    Young Ace
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    Tampa Bay Rays Fan wants David Price to become the ace of the team this year:

    In the five regular season games that Price spent some time on the mound, he tossed 14 innings, struck out 12 en route to notching a 1.93 ERA. Not bad for a rookie, playing in the toughest division in all of baseball.

    If you combine that with what he was able to do in the postseason, it is even more impressive.

    Price appeared in five post season games, pitching 5.2 innings, striking out 8 and posting a 1.59 ERA. Price also picked up a win and a save during the Rays first post season run.

    Be careful what you wish for. Red Sox and Yankees fans had similar hopes about Clay Buchholz and Phil Hughes after stellar short stints in 2007. Unfortunately, it's a long way from small sample size to major league star.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 08:57 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
    January 05, 2009
    Very Verducci
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    Beyond the Boxscore examines a very good year for the Verducci effect and looks at which pitchers may experience the decline in 2009. Tim Lincecum and Cole Hamels are the biggest names on the list.

    If Lincecum comes through 2009 unscatched, I wonder if youngsters will start imitating his mechanics? If he can pitch that much without injury, it's work a go.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 07:00 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    January 04, 2009
    Kremlinology
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    Tim Wakefield seems to have disappeared.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 08:35 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    December 31, 2008
    Giant Pitchers
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    My latest column at SportingNews.com looks at the chance of the Giants competing for the division title due to the efforts of their starting pitchers.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 05:12 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    December 26, 2008
    Searching for a Pitcher
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    Purple Row looks at the advantages and disadvantages of the Rockies trading for Jason Marquis rather than bidding up Tim Redding.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 11:47 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    December 24, 2008
    Pen Innovation
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    Daniel Drezner poses as the GM of the Red Sox and comes up with an excellent innovation:

    Convert Justin Masterson into a three-inning closer. Here's an area where the Red Sox can make in innovation, or retrovation; bring back the three-inning closer. Masterson would be perfect in this role, and helps to give the bullpen a guaranteed rest day.

    Bill James once described Bob Stanley as a long reliever who could actually pitch. Using Masterson in this role sounds like a great idea to me. He could easily pitch three inning every third game.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 11:02 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
    December 23, 2008
    One Seamer
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    David Golebiewski uses pitch f/x to distinguish Jon Lester four-seam fastball from his one-seam fastball. It's very interesting reading. I hadn't heard of a one-seam fastball before.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:51 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    December 18, 2008
    CC and A.J.
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    Peter Abraham posts a note from Sam Borden with tons of good tidbits on how the Yankees signed Sabathia, plus some comments from A.J. Burnett.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 10:23 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    New York Debut
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    CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett hold their initial Yankees press conference today. YFSF predicts the first tactless questions for both.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 08:16 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    December 15, 2008
    Injured Value
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    R.J. Anderson makes the case for signing good but injured pitchers:

    The Pavanos and Clements of the market are undervalued. Teams are unable to rely on injured starters for entire seasons, which is irritating and annoying, but good pitching for fewer innings is usually better than league average pitcher over more innings.

    That last point doesn't get enough credit, but it's true. Clement's career FIP if 4.24 and Pavano's 4.21. Over the same amount of innings either will save one more run than an average American League Starting Pitcher (FIP of 4.48). If Clement could give the Jays 80 innings he'll save 13.2 runs, Mr. League Average would save 14.1 in 100. That's not a very wide margin despite an extra 20 innings, and the Jays other starters aren't guarantees to be league average anyways.

    Of course, you can also end up with Mark Prior who doesn't pitch at all.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 08:16 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
    December 12, 2008
    It's the Motion
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    Homer Bailey's pitching motion gets a poor review at Driveline Mechanics.

    Hat tip, Red Reporter.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 08:52 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    December 06, 2008
    Doctor in the House
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    Ian Kennedy received some House work from a former pitching coach.

    The former USC star went home and worked with pitching guru Tom House, who has been the Trojans' pitching coach the past two years.

    "I got some tips and started applying those and it made the break of my curveball better and the command of it extremely better," Kennedy said from Puerto Rico. "Now I know what I have to do. Before I was just throwing it to throw it and try to throw it for a strike and not have any idea."

    Essentially, Kennedy is holding onto the baseball longer, and that makes a difference in break and command. As a result, he can make in-game adjustments to get the results he needs.

    Good for Kennedy. He's getting good results in winter ball, but he also looked like a star in AAA in 2008. Whenever I read stories like this, I wonder why the major league coaches don't pick up on these things.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:06 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
    December 03, 2008
    Young Guns
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    Via River Ave. Blues, Joba Chamberlain and Jon Lester will make a joint appearance at Sacred Heart University in late January. Scared Heart is in my old stomping grounds of Bridgeport (actually on the border of Fairfield, Bridgeport and Trumbull), and we used to drive by it whenever we ventured up to the Trumbull shopping mall. I'm trying to purchase tickets for the event.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 06:11 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
    November 29, 2008
    PR for Kennedy
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    Peter Abraham lists Ian Kennedy's stats in the Puerto Rican Winter League. They're mostly good, but the nine walks in 19 2/3 innings bothers me. He's wild and tough to hit, something that doesn't work for most major league pitchers.

    Correction: Fixed the title.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 05:22 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
    November 25, 2008
    Brush with Greatness
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    John Perricone ran into Tim Lincecum the other night:

    First impression, he has that look, that glow, that the preternaturally gifted all seem to have. His handshake was impressive, to say the least. He did seem normal sized, not huge, but his hands were large, solid, and seemed very strong.

    He was genuinely friendly, and I felt pretty great getting to meet him in person. Thanks for being such an approachable star, Tim.

    I've noticed the hands on other players I've met. They all seem to have big mitts.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 07:10 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
    November 20, 2008
    Winning 20 at Last
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    Rob Neyer devotes his column to the pitchers to win 20 games in their last season of play. He includes the interesting story of Henry Schmidt.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 12:07 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    November 18, 2008
    Ryan but no Jake?
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    Ivy Chat looks at how the signing of Ryan Dempster may preclude the Cubs from a Jake Peavy trade.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 10:37 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Training Train
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    Bless You Boys comments on Dontrelle Willis's winter workout.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 10:43 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    November 17, 2008
    Holding Back?
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    Lookout Landing examines the claim that Francisco Rodriguez was just holding back on his fastball to gain control.

    Francisco Rodriguez is a good closer. Of that there's no question. But there are already a lot of miles on his arm, and he's coming off the worst season of his career in which his fastball dropped a few ticks. That's bad. Those are two major red flags, and you better believe the league is aware. I would not want to be a fan of the team that ends up footing his contract, because while free agency is almost always about paying for what a guy's already done (as opposed to what you expect him to do), this one takes that to another level.

    All pitchers eventually lose something off their fastballs. The good ones adjust by improving their control. It usually happens when they're 30, not 26, however.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 07:46 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    November 13, 2008
    Kei Trade?
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    River Ave. Blues comments on Kei Igawa making the AAA all-star team:

    I don't really know what else I can add to this news. I, for one, am glad the Yanks' $46-million investment is paying dividends for some team. That 6.66 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in 71.2 big league innings makes me wonder just how bad AAA hitters are anyway.

    Now, can we trade him?

    That's a good question. He's not exactly blowing away minor league hitters. His 3.45 MiLB ERA is good but not great. My guess is put him in San Diego where get gets to face the weak hitters of the NL West in a tough park for hitters, and he'll get by as a fifth starter. Maybe the Yankees can package him for Peavy?

    Posted by StatsGuru at 11:53 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
    November 11, 2008
    Torres Retires
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    Pat at Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke? will miss Salomon Torres. The former Pirates pitcher retired today.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 10:20 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    November 05, 2008
    Process of Elimination
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    I love this idea. Want to find a pitcher? Go to a high popluation country, and offer a prize to someone who can throw hard and accurately:

    Singh came to the United States with Patel after being declared winner of the Million Dollar Arm contest in India, run by promoter Jeff Bernstein, Barry Bonds' marketing agent. The contest -- the second edition is scheduled to begin this month and targets India because of its population of 1.1 billion even though the country has never produced a major leaguer -- was based on those who could throw the most pitches 85 mph or faster for strikes. Singh consistently hit 87 mph and earned $100,000. When veteran major league scout Ray Poitevint went to India to see whether he had potential, he also recommended Patel, who threw harder but wasn't as accurate.

    If they really wanted to do this right, they should have this contest in every neighborhood, then keep moving the winner up against less and less regional competition. At the end, they'll wind up with 10 good arms that might be developed into major league pitchers.

    Hat tip, AOL FanHouse.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 12:15 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
    November 04, 2008
    Nailing It
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    This qualifies as a good outing in any league.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 11:45 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    October 27, 2008
    Rays to Regress?
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    Beyond the Boxscore looks at the BABIP of the Rays relievers and sees a weaker bullpen in 2009.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:04 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    October 25, 2008
    Bullpen Usage
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    Sean McAdam writes about Joe Maddon successfully using his relievers without a closer. Joe is avoiding the closer by committee tag:

    On other occasions, Maddon has gone to his two best relievers early. In Game 2 of the ALCS, after starter Scott Kazmir faltered, Maddon opted for right-hander Grant Balfour and lefty J.P. Howell in the fifth inning when more traditional thinking would have resulted in long man Edwin Jackson getting the call.

    "We're willing to utilize either one of those two guys in the middle of the game," Maddon said recently, "so that you actually have a chance to win it in the eighth and the ninth inning. We've done that not only in the postseason, we've done that during the season."

    Maddon has sold the concept to the relievers, who aren't worried about ego or job description.

    "I like the fact that we have all those options out there," lefty Trever Miller said.

    Getting a player to accept an undefined role is tough these days. It's a feather in Maddon's cap that he was able to get his pitchers to buy into this concept.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 10:26 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
    October 17, 2008
    Righting a Wang
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    Chien-Ming Wang threw off a mound today. Peter Abraham has the story.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 04:59 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    October 16, 2008
    Planning on Starting
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    The Yankees are planning to use Joba Chamberlain as a starter in 2009. Good. The more innings he pitches, the fewer runs the Yankees allow.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 07:49 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    October 13, 2008
    What Happened to Moyer?
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    Jamie Moyer

    Jamie Moyer pitches against the Brewers in the NLDS
    Photo: Icon SMI

    So far the Phillies two post-season losses have one thing in common; Jamie Moyer pitching. That pretty much goes against Moyer's career and recent histories. Coming into 2008, Moyer pitched very well in the post season. In addition, Charlie Manuel made sure both of Jamie's starts were on the road, where he pitched much stronger than at Citizens Bank Park. Maybe his excellent batting average on balls in play (BABIP) on the road wasn't sustainable:
    Jamie Moyer 2008
    OppositionHomeRoadPlayoffs
    In Play32032520
    Hits1099010
    In Play.341.277.500

    What's clear is that Moyer is not fooling anyone so far in the playoffs. Could age finally be catching up to the pitcher? He finished strong down the stretch for the Phillies, posting ERAs under three in July, August and September. Manuel didn't push him either, as he averaged about six innings a start over that time period.

    Both the Dodgers and Brewers hit lefties well. Moyer just ran into teams that were well equipped to generate offense against him.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:51 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
    October 12, 2008
    Ryan's Plan
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    Evan Grant details Nolan Ryan's plan for rebuilding the Texas pitching staff:

    Among Ryan's suggestions:

    • More live batting practice. It was incorporated in the minor leagues at the start of the regular season. Ryan wants more in spring training, too, something now-deposed pitching coach Mark Connor and bullpen coach Dom Chiti resisted last spring for the major league pitchers. Ryan believes batting practice helps build stamina.

    • More sprinting: The system is stocked with power pitchers. Sprinting helps create more explosiveness than long jogs.

    • Expanding limits: He doesn't favor abandoning pitch counts for minor leaguers. But he does want pitch counts to be more individually tailored. If a pitcher is closing in on his limit when he finishes one inning, it's more likely he'll be sent out to start the next inning and pitch right up to his limit rather than taking a seat early.

    • Most importantly, Ryan wants to instill a genuine feeling of fearlessness among Rangers pitchers.

    "There is a mind-set you have to develop with these young kids," Ryan said. "They have to believe they can be successful in Arlington. They have to know they are capable of throwing more pitches and working through trouble. We are trying to push them so they'll know they can push themselves when things arise in the big leagues."

    I hope it works.

    Hat tip, Lone Star Ball.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 05:37 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    October 11, 2008
    Walking Counts
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    Cameron Martin examines how well Daisuke Matsuzaka performs in hitter counts:

    Hearing this, I made the obvious conclusion that he probably ended up walking most of those batters. Further digging at Baseball-Reference.com tells me otherwise: The 16 times he fell behind 2-0 (doesn't that seem like a low total?), Dice-K didn't walk a single batter all season. That's pretty amazing. The 50 times he fell behind 3-1, he only allowed two hits -- both singles -- while walking the batter 32 times (and hitting one batter).

    So he basically never gives in to the hitter.

    Like last night, Dice-K's wildest inning tends to be the first. I wonder if that helps set up batters for the rest of the game? They start thinking he's going to miss the corner, so they end up taking pitches later in the game at which they should swing. Is his early wildness luring batters into a sense of complacency that benefits Matsuzaka later in the game? The stats seem to point to this kind of effect in the second and third inning, at least.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 01:56 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    October 10, 2008
    Peering into Peavy's Future
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    With a hat tip to Gaslamp Ball, a Jake Peavy to the Yankees rumor.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 07:31 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    October 09, 2008
    Tougher Pitchers
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    Lone Star Ball links to two articles on how Nolan Ryan wants to transform the Texas Rangers pitching staff. He wants to move away from innings limits and pitch counts. Nolan is looking for talent and endurance. He's willing to accept injuries to see if this works.

    I'm not sure if it's that different than what Leo Mazzone preached with the Braves. He had his pitchers throwing all the time. Did it really work? Glavine certainly pitched without injury for a number of years, but Steve Avery broke down fairly early and John Smoltz had his share of troubles. The Rangers may end up with the entire pitching staff blown out, but they also may wind up with fewer but better pitchers. Imagine a nine or ten man staff being able to handle a 162 game workload. That would give the Rangers a competitive advantage.

    Will it work? I'm skeptical. Ryan seems to be projecting himself onto other pitchers, but Nolan was a freak of nature. He held up for so long most likely because his body was built for it. He was built to pitch lots of innings for a long time. Most athletes aren't. Maybe what the Rangers should do is figure out what in Ryan's genetic makeup made his so durable, then scout for pitchers with the same traits. Now that would be cutting edge.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 11:09 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
    October 08, 2008
    Seven Million Dollar Shoulder
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    Rich Harden's shoulder checked out, and the Cubs picked up his $7 million option for 2009.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 05:24 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    October 05, 2008
    Danks for the Memories
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    Peter Abraham notes what John Danks means to the Yankees:

    On a serious note, perhaps you noticed John Danks win two huge games for the White Sox in the last week. This would be the same John Danks who lost 13 games and had a 5.50 ERA for the Rangers when he was 22. The lesson is you have to be patient with young starters.

    Sure, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy had poor seasons for the Yankees. But there was a reason they were first-round picks (just like Danks) and you have to give them time. If the playoffs can serve as a blueprint, that is what the Yankees should take from it.

    See also Greg Maddux's start with the Cubs.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 08:28 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
    October 01, 2008
    Short Rest Comeback
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    Ben Walker wonders if the late success of pitchers on three days rest might start a new trend. I sure hope so.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 10:49 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    Hamels and Righties
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    John Smoltz mentioned Hamels effectiveness against righties and how teams should bat more lefties against him. He says the managers don't want to answer for a lefty-heavy lineup, something I've heard from other players when asked why pitchers like Hamels see mostly righties.

    Hamels retired all nine batters he's faced so far, striking out four. The other five outs were all in the air.

    Update: Carlos Ruiz leads off the bottom of the third with a single, the first hit of the game. A bad defensive play on the Hamels bunt puts runners on first and second. Hall probably had a play at second, hesitated then threw to first low and Weeks dropped the ball.

    Update: It looked like Gallardo was going to get out of the inning. A fly out and a strike out left the runners on 1st and 2nd. Utley hit a hard high ball to centerfield and Mike Cameron misjudged it. He started in, then had to go back and he dropped the ball. Two runs score and the Phillies draw first blood. Defense hurt Milwaukee in this inning. Both runs will be unearned.

    Update: Gallardo just issued his third walk in a row, the first an IBB to Ryan Howard, and Utley is forced in. The Phillies lead 3-0 and Gallardo is not long for this game.

    Update: Feliz flies out to center to end the inning.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 03:39 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
    September 29, 2008
    Lackey's Side
    Permalink

    Halos Heaven reports from John Lackey's side session.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 08:31 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Useless Steals
    Permalink

    The Tigers picked up their second steal against Gavin Floyd in the third inning. The steals don't matter if the batters can't deliver hits, and so far Floyd hasn't allowed any. The two Tigers reached by a walk and a hit by pitch. Despite allowing 34 steals in 39 attempts, it didn't really hurt Floyd this year as opponents hit just .236 against him with runners in scoring position. So far, that number is going down today.

    Update: Magglio Ordonez leads off the fourth with a single.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 05:58 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    September 28, 2008
    Walk off Walk
    Permalink

    Randy Johnson pitches nine stellar innings and picks up his 295th career win on a walk off walk. We'll wait to see if some team sign Randy in order to allow him to win his 300th game.

    I wonder if Johnson would make a good pitching coach? Some team could sign him to do both, and if his pitching doesn't work out he just goes into full time coaching.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:33 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
    Interviewing Mussina
    Permalink

    Peter Abraham posts audio of Mussina's post game news conference. Abraham thinks Mike pitched his last:

    Mussina is 270-153, but he probably cares more about being around his wife and family than spending three more seasons in a chase for 300 wins. He has all the money he could ever spend and he has a life he treasures in Pennsylvania. Sure, it's possible he comes back. But when you listened to him talk after the game, he sounded like a man who is ready to walk away.

    I have to agree.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:30 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
    Cy Lincecum?
    Permalink

    Tim Lincecum strikes out 13 in seven innings, allowing just one run as he earns his 18th win of the season in a 3-1 decision over the Dodgers. He finishes second to Johan Santana with a 2.62 ERA in the National League but leads the league by a wide margin with 265 strikeouts. That's an impressive total for 227 innings.

    In my mind, the vote comes down to Lincecum and Santana. They're ERAs are very close, but Santana holds two fewer wins. I suspect the level of competition favors Johan; facing the Phillies and Marlins was much tougher than shutting down the Padres. Had the Mets won today, Johan's Saturday performance would have solidified the award for him. It may anyway, but Sabathia's clutch complete game may throw writers his way as well. It should be a very interesting vote.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 06:38 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
    Stone Cold Saunders
    Permalink

    Joe Saunders's kidney stone passing didn't seem to bother him today as he pitches six shutout innings against the Rangers to help the Angels to their 100th win. Unlike Lackey and Santana, Saunders's tune up for the playoffs is a successful one. Of Weaver, Garland, Lackey and Santana, Saunders is the only Angels' starter to pitch well in his last start. We'll see how that translates to the playoffs. Joe finishes he season with a 3.41 ERA.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 06:14 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    September 25, 2008
    Happy Halladay
    Permalink

    Roy Halladay wins his 20th game in style, going nine innings as the Blue Jays down the Yankees 8-2. It's the second time Roy reached the 20 win plateau. Three of the six hits off Hallady game via the bat of Brett Gardner easily the worst hitter in the lineup tonight.

    At 131-66, Halladay is one win short of a .667 winning percentage. That's a remarkable number given that Toronto in that time is a .506 team. Without Roy, they'd be well under .500.


    Posted by StatsGuru at 10:36 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
    I Want to Win
    Permalink

    MLBRumors reports on a Peter Gammons radio appearance. According to the post, CC Sabathia told his agent to stop complaining about the Brewers' use of Sabathia:

    "Don't call them anymore," Gammons quoted Sabathia as telling his representatives at Legend Sports Group. "I want to win."

    The Brewers will use CC on Sunday, his third start in a row on three days rest. Although, if the Brewers are a game up on either the Mets or Phillies at that point, I think they would be better off trying to win with someone else and saving CC for the possible playoff game, or first start in the division series.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:11 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
    What Happened to the Starter
    Permalink

    Andrew Kneeland opines on the dimished role of the starting pitcher.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:02 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    September 24, 2008
    Myers Re-Mired
    Permalink

    Brett Myers pitches another poor game, and the Phillies fall to the Braves 10-4. Atlanta collects 10 hits and six runs in 4 1/3 innings against Myers as his ERA rises to 4.55. Not only does the loss give the Mets and Brewers a chance to gain ground, the Phillies now must wonder if they can trust Myers going into the post season.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 10:38 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Phil of the Future
    Permalink

    Phil Hughes just gave Yankees fans all the hope they need for next season. He goes eight innings against the Blue Jays, allowing two runs. He walks none and strikes out six, throwing 71 of 100 pitches for strikes. That's what fans expected this season, and now they can hope for that in 2009.

    A.J. Burnett pitches just as well, and the teams go to the tenth inning tied at two.

    Update: Abreu hits a grand slam in the top of the 10th. Too late for Phil to get the win, however.

    Update: The slam holds up and the Yankees win 6-2. They've now won seven in a row and hold a four-game lead over Toronto for third place in the division.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:35 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
    Goodbye Mr. Jones
    Permalink

    Todd Jones retires from baseball:

    In Detroit, Jones has been known as a "roller coaster" closer because of his penchant for turning ninth innings into nail-biters for manager Jim Leyland and Tigers fans. In his eight seasons of writing for Sporting News, Jones has been even more reliable, never missing a deadline and putting a waiting editor on a "roller coaster" only a couple of times.

    Jones, 40, has spent much of the second half of the 2008 season on the disabled list with a sore shoulder. He told Sporting News he had been pitching with a frayed labrum for some time, but he managed to stay off of the disabled list until July 31. It was just his third trip to the D.L. in his career, the first for an arm injury since 1996.

    Jones lasted a long time, having his ups and downs but coming out overall better than most. His best season came in 2005 with the Marlins. He kept his walks down, and only allowed two home runs in 73 innings. 5.5 per 200 innings. For his career, his HR per 200 is 17.4. I wish him continued success writing for SportingNews.com.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 03:16 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    September 23, 2008
    Zeros for Zack
    Permalink

    Zack Greinke pitches seven shutout innings as the Royals down the Tigers 5-0. That's the fourth short shutout of the season for Zack, lowering his ERA to 3.47.

    What a great year for Greinke. He's established himself as a good front-line starter. Now the Royals need to find some offense to turn that ERA into a 20 win season. The Royals won 11 of their last 14 games. That's a big positive to carry into 2009 as well.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:30 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Shielding the Rays
    Permalink

    James Shields makes another fine start for the Rays, allowing the Orioles just two runs over seven innings. He walked one and struck out eight. At this point, I'm more comfortable with Shields on the mound than Kazmir. Scott will be better at his best, but James seems to be more consistent. The Rays lead 5-2 in the bottom of the ninth.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 07:45 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Short Sabathia
    Permalink

    Dale Sveum will start CC Sabathia on short rest again.

    The starting rotation is in shambles because of Ben Sheets' ailing elbow and the meltdowns of Manny Parra and Jeff Suppan, leaving Sveum with few viable options. He said he'll start Sabathia on Wednesday and figure out Thursday later.

    "We'll see what happens," said Sveum. "(Sabathia) is stil our best option to win tomorrow's game. He's one of the best pitchers in all of baseball."

    Sveum realizes some people will say the Brewers are abusing Sabathia, who is a free agent and likely will bolt for another team after the season. But Sveum said he checked with Sabathia first and "he's all for it."

    Milwaukee is making someone signing CC next year a risky move. I'm not looking forward to seeing what happens to CC and Tim Lincecum next season. Sabathia may be big and strong enough to take the abuse. LIncecum's mechanics may be good enough to take the abuse. I wouldn't count on it, however.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 07:40 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    September 21, 2008
    Still No Control
    Permalink

    Dontrelle Willis walks four batters in the first inning as the Indians score three runs. It looks like the Tigers are going to spend the winter trying to figure out how to get Willis back under control.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 01:50 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    September 18, 2008
    Good News Brews
    Permalink

    The Milwaukee Brewers get some good news, Yovani Gallardo might be able to pitch this weekend.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:27 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    September 16, 2008
    I Came to Casablanca for the Waters
    Permalink

    Chris Waters entered tonight's game with a 5.73 ERA, so it's possible the Blue Jays thought they could get healthy against the Orioles lefty. They were misinformed. Waters throws the second excellent start of his career, going the distance as he shutdown the Blue Jays 2-0 on four hits. Waters pitched eight shutout innings in his MLB debut, but stunk in his next seven appearances. I guess two out of nine ain't bad.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:51 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Was Kazmir Ill?
    Permalink

    Monday night I though Kazmir looked ill. That indeed may have been the case:

    The stakes were far higher Monday, and Kazmir seemed as mystified as his manager and everyone else after his ERA shot from 2.99 to 3.50. He said his body felt "weak" and wasn't responding as it should have, as if he had jet lag.

    "I mean, what else could go wrong in that game?" Kazmir said. "I just don't want to have any of those experiences ever again."

    It was an inopportune time for a bug. After the 13-5 Red Sox victory, Tampa Bay and Boston are tied in the games back column.

    Correction: I meant games back column, not loss column. Tampa leads by one in the AFILC.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 07:55 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
    September 15, 2008
    One Gamble Too Many
    Permalink

    The Tigers shut down Kenny Rogers for the rest of the season. No reason was given, but it's clear Rogers has become quite hittable.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 06:02 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    September 14, 2008
    Zambrano Speaks
    Permalink

    Carlos Zambrano spoke after the game about the no-hitter. I found this interesting:

    It was the first Cubs' no-hitter since Milt Pappas on Sept. 2, 1972. Zambrano said Pappas encouraged him during the Cubs Convention.

    "Every time I go to the Cubs Convention he said 'You will be the next one.' I appreciate everything he said to me at the Cubs Convention," Zambrano said.

    Pappas must have ESP(n).

    Posted by StatsGuru at 11:12 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
    Zambrano Really Back
    Permalink

    Carlos Zambrano is throwing a no-hitter against the Astros as they go to the bottom of the sixth. Carlos has walked one and hit a batter while striking out five.

    Update: Zambrano retires the side 1-2-3 in the sixth. He strikes out all three batters and the no-hitter continues. The Cubs lead 5-0.

    Update: The Astros go down 1-2-3 in the seventh on two grounders and a strikeout. With the White Sox up 6-0 on the Tigers, maybe it's time for ESPN to switch over.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:40 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Hackles Raised
    Permalink

    USS Mariner adds to the criticism of the Giants allowing Tim Lincecum to throw 138 pitches Saturday night.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:13 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Blackburn Burned
    Permalink

    The Orioles lead the Twins 7-0, scoring all their runs on five homers. Nick Blackburn gives up four of those in four innings of work. He came into the game with a good home run rate, allowing 17 in 176 2/3 innings.

    Meanwhile, Radhames Liz allowed just three hits through five innings as he's working on a shutout. He's thrown 75 pitches so far.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 03:09 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    September 13, 2008
    Living Up to his Name
    Permalink

    Josh Outman made his first start of his major league career this afternoon as he held the Texas Rangers to one run in a 7-1 Oakland victory. The most aptly named pitcher since Jack Armstrong, Outman faced eighteen batters, and with the help of two double plays recorded 15 outs.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:13 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Webb 20.0
    Permalink

    Brandon Webb recovered from his three game slide to pitch eight shutout innings agains the Cincinnati Reds, earning his 20th win. It wasn't a sure thing, however, as the scored stood at 1-0 when he finished pitching. Arizona scored two runs in the bottom of the eighth, and they needed both as Brandon Lyon allowed two runs to score in the ninth before Chad Qualls got the final out. Lyon's BA allowed is up to .314 and his slugging percentage allowed stands at .480. Those aren't the kind of stats teams like to see in a closer.

    The win allows Arizona to keep pace with the Dodgers. Chad Billingsley keeps pitching well, recording his 15th win with six solid innings in the big ballpark. The three youngsters, Ethier, Kemp and Loney each collect two hits, and Loney didn't even start. The Dodgers schedule looks pretty easy down the stretch, as they play Pittsburgh, San Francisco and San Diego after leaving Colorado.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:12 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    September 12, 2008
    Audition Continues
    Permalink

    Shairon Martis gets a good look this September from the Washington coaching staff. They liked what they saw tonight. Even though the Marlins take the game 2-1, Martis pitches five strong innings, allowing two runs, one earned. He walked three, which is not great, but struck out nine. The Nationals can walk away with something positive from the outing.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:56 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    September 11, 2008
    Papelbon in Drag
    Permalink

    No wonder Jonathan blew the save the other night. Deadspin links to all the videos.

    Papelbon missed his calling. He should have gone to Harvard and starred in the Hasty Pudding productions. (Serf's Up was very funny, by the way.)

    Posted by StatsGuru at 11:19 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    September 10, 2008
    The Closer
    Permalink

    Jose Valverde helps the Astros stay on the winning track as he earns his 42nd save Wednesday night. Valverde hasn't pitched in a Houston loss since June, and he has not allowed a run in his last 21 appearances. Valverde got off to a rough start this season, with many Houston fans believing the team made a mistake. I'm sure they're very happy to have him on the team now. The Astros win 7-4, moving them past the Cardinals into a tie with the Phillies for second place in the Wild Card race.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 11:29 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Great Scott
    Permalink

    Scott Lewis makes his debut for the Indians in Baltimore and holds the Orioles scoreless in eight innings of work. He only allowed three hits, walking none while striking out three. He worked very efficiently, throwing just 96 pitches. A Maddux like outing. His minor league walks and strikeouts are outstanding.

    Update: Cleveland wins 7-1, and Scott Lewis gets the victory.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:42 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Out After Four
    Permalink

    Sean Gallagher pitches four no-hit innings against the Tigers, striking out six but walking six. With his pitch count at 87, 50% balls, he's pulled for Jerry Blevins. I don't know if Gallagher was hurt, but it was clear, despite the no-hitter, he was not pitching well. Blevins goes through the fifth 1-2-3, so the multi-pitcher no-hitter is still a possibility. The A's lead the Tigers 5-0 after five innings.

    Update: Miguel Cabrera leads off the sixth with a broken bat single.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 02:49 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    September 09, 2008
    To Lose is Human, to Win, Devine
    Permalink

    Joey Devine pitches one inning against the Tigers, putting him in the right place to take advantage of Oakland's comeback and he runs his record to 5-1 out of the pen. He struck out two in his perfect inning of work, giving him 41 K in 37 2/3 innings of work with 12 walks and no home runs allowed. Along with Zielger, who picked up a four-out save tonight, they've allowed six earned runs in 88 2/3 innings.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 10:01 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Volstad Leaves Early
    Permalink

    Chris Volstad leaves the Marlins-Phillies game after three innings due to being hit on the leg twice by batted balls. The Marlins led 9-1 at the time. I wonder if he would have stayed in if the game was closer? The Phillies are staging a comeback, scoring three times in the sixth to make it 10-7 Marlins.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:16 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Shields at Home
    Permalink

    Beyond the Boxscore looks at James Shields pitchFX data to try to determine why he's a better pitcher at home than on the road.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 10:36 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    September 08, 2008
    No Relief
    Permalink

    La Velle E. Neal notes that the Twins bullpen is the worst ranked in terms of ERA since Gardenhire and Anderson took over as manager and pitching coach.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 10:40 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Bend but Don't Break
    Permalink

    Brad Lidge gives the Phillies fans a little scare but comes away with his save percentage at 100. The Phillies gave Lidge a two run lead to hold in the ninth, but he put the tying runs on base, first and third with one out. Brad, however, strikes out the last two Marlins, Helms and Cantu, to end the game. Opponents are 14 for 70 against Lidge with runners in scoring position, striking out 26 times.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 10:30 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Lesson Learned
    Permalink

    Nick Hundley called for a slider, but Chris Young wanted to throw a fastball. Gabe Kapler deposited the fastball in the seats, and Young lost his perfect game.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 10:24 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
    September 07, 2008

    Cliff Lee allowed one run in 7 1/3 innings as the Indians defeat the Royals 3-1. Lee wins his 21st game, the first to reach that level since Bartolo Colon and Dontrelle Willis in 2005. With 21 Cleveland games remaining, Lee could reach 25 wins. The last to reach that level was Bob Welch in 1990. There have been two AL pitchers to reach 23 since then (Pedro, 1999, Zito, 2003) and two reached 24 in the NL (Smoltz, 1996, Randy Johnson, 2002).

    Lee walked one today, keeping his average walks per start exactly at one.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 05:22 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
    Young in the Eighth
    Permalink

    Chris Young comes out for the eighth inning, needing six outs for a perfect game. The Padres are one of the only teams never to toss a no-hitter (nor have the Mets). He'll face Fielder, Hart and Kapler. Fielder pops out on the first pitch. The Brewers made it easy on Young today, his pitch count is very low.

    Update: With two out, Kapler gets a high fastball and hits it just inside the leftfield foul pole in the second deck for a home run. No no-no for the Padres today.

    Update: Young finishes the game for 10-1 Padres win. It's Young's first complete games. By pitching well while only striking out four batters, Young was able to limit his pitches thrown to 96. A great game by Young.

    The Brewers lose no ground to the Cubs as Kerry Wood gives up three runs, two earned to blow the save in the bottom of the ninth and give the Reds a 4-3 win. It hasn't exactly been a great week for leading teams as the Rays, Cubs, Brewers and Diamondbacks are all going through bad stretches.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 04:11 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    Youthful Perfection
    Permalink

    Chris Young of the Padres is pitching a perfect game against the Brewers through six innings. With the score 10-0 San Diego, Young can just worry about remaining perfect.

    If you remember, Sabathia pitched a one hitter for Milwaukee last Sunday, a game that engendered some controversy on the one hit. Many thought it was an error. If there's a close play, I wonder how the Milwaukee official scorer will call it?

    Update: Wow. There are people leaving a perfect game in the seventh inning. I thought maybe they were going to watch the Packers, but Green Bay plays tomorrow night. How can anyone leave a perfect game?

    Update: Two fly outs and a ground out and Young is out of the seventh still perfect. He's only struck out three, so the Brewers are putting the ball in play, just not very well.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 03:53 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    The Oswalt Files
    Permalink
    Roy Oswalt

    Roy Oswalt
    Photo: Icon SMI

    Roy Oswalt tossed a one-hitter at Coors Field Saturday night, one of the three lowest hit games in the history of the park. Roy continues his turnaround from the first three months of the season. While his strikeouts are up slightly and his walks are down slightly, the following table shows that Roy was giving batters good pitches to hit early on:
    Oswalt 2008Through 6/25Since
    Games1711
    ERA4.772.12
    Hits/9 IP10.46.7
    HR/200 IP32.98.3

    Since Roy's strikeout rate didn't change much (7.0 per 9 early, 7.3 per nine late), either the Astros defense improved tremendously, or Roy is just doing a better job of fooling batters. The huge reduction in the home run rate points to the latter. Note, too that the turn-around started before his trip to the disabled list. According to Jose de Jesus Ortiz, Roy's back bothered him all year.

    So Oswalt's early problems may have cost the Astros a playoff spot. It's not a stretch to believe that if Roy pitched well early, his record through 6/25 could be 9-5 instead of 6-8. The would make Houston 78-64, four games out of the wild card instead of seven. That's a much easier gap to close with three weeks left in the season.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:24 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    September 06, 2008
    Long Sheets
    Permalink

    It looks like Ben Sheets injury wasn't that serious as he pitches a shutout against the Padres. Sheets gives up five hits and one walk over his nine innings of work, striking out seven along the way.

    I do have to wonder about Yost once again however. Sheets is a fragile pitcher coming off a groin injury, however slight. Allowing him to throw 120 pitches because:

    • You don't trust your bullpen
    • Your bullpen is tired

    Just doesn't cut it in my book. Yes, it was a 1-0 game, but with all the callups Yost should be able to find someone to pitch the last inning. I understand Sheets and Sabathia probably won't be around next year, but you do want them to be around for the playoffs.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 10:02 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
    There's Always Brandon Morrow
    Permalink

    Brandon Morrow made the transition from bullpen to rotation well, holding the Yankees hitless for 7 2/3 innings before Wilson Betemit doubled in Hideki Matsui, who reached via a walk. The Yankees fall 3-1 after, I believe, making the second longest trip possible in major league baseball travel, I believe, Tampa Bay to Seattle. Still, the Yankees waste a good performance by Andy Pettitte, who struck out 9 over seven innings of work.

    On a lighter note, Matt Tuiasosopo debuted, doubling in four at bats. He's competing with Dustin Pedroia for most vowels per letter in his last name.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 10:28 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    Regression to the Mean Rears its Ugly Head
    Permalink

    Dan Haren pitched another poor game Friday night:

    DateERA
    Through 20073.82
    April-July, 20082.62
    Aug-Sept, 20086.17
    Overall, 20083.53

    Haren is still pitching well for the year, it's just that his regression is going in the wrong direction at the wrong time. Compare that to Johan Santana who regressed positively toward his mean in the second half. He'll come off as a hero while Haren might end up the goat.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 10:16 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    September 05, 2008
    Everyone Should Numb Their Hands
    Permalink

    Josh Beckett returned to action tonight. The Red Sox only let him pitch five innings, but in that time he shutout the Rangers on four hits and didn't allow a walk while striking out seven. As in 2007, the rest probably was a good thing that will allow Beckett to be fresh during the playoffs.

    Mike Lowell also makes a splash in his return, picking up two hits, one a home run. The Red Sox lead 7-0 in the seventh.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 10:06 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Halladay Control
    Permalink

    Roy Halladay earns his 18th win of the season, allowing three runs, one earned, over seven innings against the Rays. Roy struck out seven and walked none. That puts his strikeout to walk ratio well over five for the season at 5.4. It also keeps his career mark over three at 3.05. Given that in his first two full seasons in the majors, this ratio was very close to one, it's an impressive accomplishment.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 10:00 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Steppin' Down
    Permalink

    With Zambrano and Harden on the shelf, Ted Lilly needed to step up for the Cubs. Instead, the Reds knocked him down, scoring five runs in two innings, and Ted left for a pinch hitter. I suppose at this point the Cubs hope Lilly just had a bad game as opposed to getting hurt. The Cubs trail 5-0 in the fourth.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 08:37 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    September 04, 2008
    Parr for the Course
    Permalink

    James Parr made his major league debut for the Braves and pitched six shutout innings as the Nationals fell 2-0. Parr did a very good job in the minors of keeping walks and home runs to a minimum. He did walk three tonight. What I like about this debut is that the Braves sent him against a fairly weak offense. They put him in a situation, at home, against the Nationals, where there was a good probability of success. He comes away with a win and a 0.00 ERA, and I would suppose a bit of confidence.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:59 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    September 03, 2008
    No No-No for CC
    Permalink

    MLB upheld the scoring of the hit against CC Sabathia on Sunday.

    "Bob Webb is a 20-year veteran scorer who is held in high regard," said Phyllis Merhige, MLB's Senior Vice President for Club Relations. "This play is a reminder of the difficult decisions that official scorers face."

    I can't say I'm surprised by this. MLB has a certain responsibility to back their official scorers. It's a play that could go either way, and it shouldn't be changed just because he would have had a no-hitter otherwise.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 07:23 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
    Holding at Sixteen
    Permalink

    Barry Zito pitched a pretty good game at Coors Field Wednesday afternoon, holding the Rockies to four hits and two runs over eight innings. His record stands at 9-16, and it would be very difficult for him to lose 20 at this point. Zito's reached the point where about half his starts are decent. Maybe over the winter he can work back to 75% of them being good.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 05:35 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Flexing his Shoulder
    Permalink

    Pedro Martinez is working on his flexibility due to difficulty warming up his shoulder.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 10:36 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    September 02, 2008
    One Step Closer
    Permalink

    The Angels defeat the Tigers 5-4, and Francisco Rodriguez collects his 54th save of the season. He made it interesting, however, giving up a hit and a walk. He needs three more saves to tie Bobby Thigpen's single season record.

    I was interviewed on 1010XL this morning, and we talked about K-Rod versus Cliff Lee for AL Cy Young. The hosts thought there was a 50/50 chance that Rodriguez would get the award. A game like tonight is a reason he shouldn't win. The walk he issued tonight is his 30th in 59 1/3 innings. Lee has 27 walks in 194 1/3 innings. Since not walking people is one of the pillars of good pitching, how can anyone even think of voting for K-Rod over Cliff Lee?

    Posted by StatsGuru at 10:37 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
    Cole Zeros
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    Cole Hamels throws 7 1/3 shutout innings as the Phillies end the Nationals winning streak by a score of 4-0. Hamels collected four short shutouts through June 5th, but this is his first since that date. He also seems to have gotten the gopher balls under control as he's only allowed one home run in his last six games.

    The Nationals lost more than the game as Jesus Flores was injured in a collison with Chase Utley. I assume Jesus turned the other cheek. :-)

    Posted by StatsGuru at 10:11 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Praise for Clemens
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    Greg Maddux tied Roger Clemens on the all-time win list Monday night, gaining his 354th victory. Maddux wished he talked more pitching with Roger:

    "I didn't talk about pitching as much as I would have liked to, I know that, but I've always respected what he's done," Maddux said. "He did it in the American League, and that's a lot tougher over there. I think everybody knows that. But I've always considered him the best in the game because of the way he threw a baseball, how he set up hitters and how he competed."

    Maddux has an equal claim to best in the game. I prefer Maddux's efficiency to Clemens's power, but both worked extremely well.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 08:18 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    20 in Style
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    Cliff Lee became the first Indian's pitcher to win 20 games since Gaylord Perry in 1974. He did it in perfect style on Monday, shutting out the leader of the AL Central, the Chicago White Sox, in a complete game. He did not walk a batter, he did not hit a batter, and the five hits against Lee were all singles. The game sums up his season perfectly. Opponents hold a low batting average, a very low OBA and an extremely low slugging percentage against him. Imagine where the team would be if the rest of the squad played like a .500 team! This could turn out to be the best AL pitching season since Pedro Martinez in 1999, in terms of both winning percentage and ERA.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 07:45 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    September 01, 2008
    Strong Finish
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    Jorge de la Rosa is putting together a strong finish to his season. The shutout the Giants for seven innings this afternoon, allowing just four hits and one walk while striking out six. That's four good starts in a row for Jorge. He's allowed five earned runs in his last 25 innings, good for a 1.80 ERA. The Rockies are managing to stay close enough in the NL West to still have hope in the playoff race.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 05:46 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Back Street
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    With Huston Street pitching better, the Athletics find themselves in a strong position both now and in the future:

    Street, who earned the win in relief Saturday night, might get a save opportunity or two in the final month, but manager Bob Geren has no plans to oust rookie Brad Ziegler as closer.

    "As of right now, no," Geren said Sunday. "Brad has been effective, (setup man) Joey Devine has been outstanding, too, and Huston has been very good - that's great for a manager. They're all performing well."

    If Street, 25, continues to pitch well and demonstrate good health down the stretch, there is likely to be interest in the right-hander this winter from possible trade partners, and the emergence of Ziegler and Devine will only hasten a deal.

    Street wants the closer's job back, and that can only motivate him to pitch well. That makes him more attractive to trading partners, giving the A's a chance to improve themselves with a move.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:26 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    August 31, 2008
    A Little Controversy
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    CC Sabathia takes a one-hitter into the bottom of the ninth. The only hit against him came in the fifth, when Andy LaRoche rolled one halfway between third and the pitcher's mound. Sabathia tried to pick it up with his bare hand and dropped it. The official scorer immediately called it a hit because he felt it was going to take an extraordinary effort to throw the batter out. However, the replay shows there was more than enough time for CC to make the throw.

    He just struck out the first two batters in the ninth.

    Update: Freddy Sanchez flies out end the game. The crowd was chanting, "Change the score!" CC strikes out 11, picking up his third shutout as a Brewer as the Pirates fall 7-0. Those three shutouts lead the NL. He's now pitched eleven games for Milwaukee, throwing 88 innings. His pickup by the Brewers was easily the best deal in the season.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 04:28 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    At Seventeen
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    Roy Halladay breaks the 16 win mark, the level he reached each of the last two seasons. The Blue Jays defeat the Yankees 6-2 as Halladay goes seven innings. With 103 pitches thrown, I'm a little surprised that he didn't go for the complete game, but with a good lead there was no reason to stretch him. His only mistakes were gopher balls to A-Rod and Giambi. His 17 wins are the third highest of his career. With a little luck, he might be able to equal his career high of 22 set in 2003.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 04:20 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    August 28, 2008
    The Case for Tim
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    Only Baseball Matters makes the case for Tim Lincecum winning the Cy Young award.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 11:20 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    August 27, 2008
    Poor Purcey
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    David Purcey puts it all together in his eighth major league start. He goes eight innings, throwing just 92 pitches. His problem so far this season was walks, but he issued zero base on balls while striking out eleven. He made just one mistake, allowing a solo home run to Carlos Pena. He lost.

    Matt Garza gave up six hits and three walks over 7 2/3 innings, but kept the Blue Jays off the board. Only one of the hits went for extra bases, a double. Keeping the ball in the park made all the difference tonight.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:51 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Complete Marlins
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    After going nearly two years without a complete game, the Marlins picked up their second in eight games tonight. Josh Johnson throws 113 pitches in holding the Braves to one run as the Marlins get back in the win column with a 4-1 victory. Johnson threw 80 pitches for strikes, walking three while striking out eight. Given that the Marlins offense isn't performing up to their early season levels, Florida is going to need more pitching performances like this to stay in the race.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:36 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    August 26, 2008
    Complete Pitcher
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    Kevin Millwood pitches his second consecutive complete game, once again allowing just one run. That was just enough, as the Rangers defeated the Royals 2-1. Texas fans, has Kevin changed something in his delivery or developed a new pitch, or is it just him getting to pitch against poor AL Central teams?

    Posted by StatsGuru at 11:53 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
    Rauchet Launcher
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    The Diamondbacks picked up Jon Rauch to solidify their bullpen, but he took the loss Monday night as the Padres took home a 4-2 victory. Rauch's walks and strikeouts are as good as they were with Washington, but the two-run shot by Jody Gerut was the fifth home run Jon allowed in 15 innings of work with Arizona. He gave up a total of five home runs in 48 1/3 innings with Washington. Seven of the ten runs he's allowed for the DBacks came on home runs. With the Dodgers loss earlier in the evening, Arizona fails to gain a game in the NL West.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 08:06 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    August 25, 2008
    Pelfrey Steps Up
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    With John Maine going on the disabled list, Mike Pelfrey steps up to pitch a great game against the Astros. He goes the distance for his second complete game in a row. He did not allow a run until the ninth, allowing just six hits and no walks while striking out six. He now given up four earned runs in his last 25 innings.

    Carlos Delgado drove in six runs with two three-run homers. That raises his slugging percentage to .493. The Mets win by a final score of 9-1.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:55 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    August 24, 2008
    Rebooting Reyes
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    Anthony Reyes pitches seven innings for the Indians tonight, allowing just one run. That lowers his ERA since joining Cleveland to 2.22 over 24 1/3 innings. The biggest difference in Reyes from his time in St. Louis is his home runs allowed. He allowed 33.4 home runs per 200 innings with the Cardinals, only one so far for Cleveland (8.2 per 200 innings). Otherwise, he's really not pitching that well. His strikeouts are low and his walks are high. I'd be very surprised if he keeps his ERA this low without improving at least one of those stats.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 11:07 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Closer Can't Keep it Close
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    The Marlins kept their playoffs hope alive, gaining a game on the Mets with a 5-2 win over the Diamondbacks. Brandon Lyon came in to pitch the ninth for Arizona with Florida leading 3-2. He gave up three doubles to plate two more runs and increase the odds of the Marlins holding off the DBacks in the bottom of the inning.

    Lyon raised his August ERA to 14.21. He's given up five doubles in the month out of eleven for the entire year. That has helped the opposition to a .694 slugging percentage against the pitcher.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:23 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Harden Hard to Hit
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    Rich Harden continued his great pitching for the Cubs today, lasting seven innings with eleven strikeouts. Once again, a solo home run proves to be the only way to score against Rich. He's now allowed nine runs pitching for Chicago, five on solo homers.

    He's now struck out 70 in 49 innings for the Cubs, 12.9 per nine innings. With that many Ks, he allowed a mere .162 batting average. He even through 109 pitches today as the Cubs seem to be willing to let him go deeper in games now. Chicago wins by a final score of 6-1.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 05:48 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
    Eveland of Reconstruction
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    Dana Eveland revamped his delivery in his stint at AAA and came back to pitch a good game against the Mariners:

    Dana Eveland always started his delivery with his hands over his head as a nod to his idol, Nolan Ryan.

    He's abandoned his boyhood hero, though, and for good reason: Eveland's control is much, much better when he begins his delivery with his hands at his belt. On Saturday night at Safeco Field, Eveland made his first start with the A's since revamping his style during a brief demotion to Triple-A Sacramento, and he was terrific.

    Seattle ranks 12th in the AL in runs per game (Oakand 14th) so it may not be that great a test. However, Eveland was skating by with a high walk rate early in the season, so if this does get that under control, it's should be a boost for the A's.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:30 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    August 23, 2008
    Pavano Okay
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    Carl Pavano's return was a success. He last five innings throwing 91 pitches. Pavano allowed three runs on seven hits, only one of the hits coming after the second inning. Most encouraging was his one walk and five strikeouts. With the Yankees leading 4-3 in the sixth, he's in line for the win.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:07 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
    Well Pitched West
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    A number of pitchers turned in fine performances out west Friday night. Aaron Harang went into Coors and reversed his troubles, tossing six scoreless innings as the Reds won 8-5. Harang labored a bit, throwing 115 pitches. Given that he allowed eight runs in his two starts since coming off the disabled list, this was a huge sign of progress for the Reds ace.

    Glen Perkins used his defense as only five of twenty five balls in play against him fell for hits. He delivered eight scoreless innings against the Angels as the Twins win easily 9-0. Denard Span continues to spark the team. His three for four raises his OBA to .407. That included a three-run homer.

    Randy Johnson struck out 13 in seven innings as he continues to return to his Cy Young form. His defense and his bullpen didn't help, however. Johnson gave up three runs, two unearned and the bullpen allowed two more as the Marlins kept pace in the NL East with a 5-4 victory. Johnson recorded 38 K in his last 33 1/3 innings.

    Tim Lincecum continued to make his case for a Cy Young award with eight shutout innings against the Padres. In five games against San Diego this year, Tim is 2-0 with an 0.79 ERA. The Giants take the game 5-0.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:29 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    August 22, 2008
    Wain Right
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    Adam Wainwright returned to the Cardinals rotation tonight and allowed the Braves just one run over six innings of work. He also went three for five, one of three three-hit games by Cardinals hitters this evening. St. Louis's offense scored 15 runs so far and they're batting in the bottom of the eighth.

    The Braves keep getting worse. Assuming they don't come back from a 15-1 deficit in the ninth, they will have lost 11 of their last 12 games, allowing at least 86 runs. I read the complaints of Yankees fans every day, but their team is on a pace to win 86 games. They ought to look to Atlanta for a reality check.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 11:02 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Late Season Santana
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    Johan Santana runs his scoreless streak to 16 innings as the Mets defeat the Astros 3-0. He gave up hits but not home runs, getting tagged for eight safeties in seven innings. He walked just one, however, and struck out five.

    You can see in Santana's opposition batting stats (since 2000) how he improves as the season progresses. Batters are close to the Mendoza line against him from June through September.

    Astros fans have to be happy with Roy Oswalt, who gets an eight inning complete game. He walked none and struck out six, giving him two walks and 16 strikeouts in his last sixteen innings.

    Update: Fixed a typo.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:35 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    A Note on Bannister
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    Sam Mellinger posts a nice column on how this is the worst part of the season for a team (like the Royals) out of the race. He also provides this note on Brian Bannister:

    Anyway, with Banny starting tonight after his disaster on Sunday, let's end this with two relevant stats, one good, one bad.

    The bad: including relievers, there have been eight pitchers since 1956 to give up 10 or more runs in one or fewer innings. Four of them are Royals. Two of them this season.

    The good: among the starters who made their next scheduled outing in the same season, the average ERA was 4.28. The other Royal on that list of starters, Luke Hudson, was the best of the bunch, giving up five hits, two walks and one earned run over seven innings.

    Regression to the mean in action.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 10:30 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Nineteen and Counting
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    Brandon Webb's win Thursday night was a bit painful:

    The shot off the bat of San Diego's Kevin Kouzmanoff had struck Webb just below his rib cage, temporarily putting him in a purple daze and giving him a nice bruise. He completed the play despite the pain to end the sixth and went on to pitch one more inning.

    ...

    "People thought I got a glove on it, which I didn't. I wish I did. Got me pretty square, went toward first base and had to get the out," he said. "As bad as it hurt, I wanted to make a play on it. Ran in (to the dugout) so I could rub it. It was a pretty good shot. It will still be a couple of days, it will be a little sore, but I will be all right."

    His seven shutout innings lowered his ERA to 2.74. He's 6-0 with a 1.53 ERA since the all-star break and can win his 20th game before September first. If the DBacks were willing to skip Davis on a turn through the rotation, Webb could get two more starts this month. Winning 20 by Sept 1 would be impressive, since no NL pitcher has won 20 since 2005.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 07:25 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    August 21, 2008
    Left In
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    Sean Gallagher and Justin Duchscherer both hit the disabled list for the Oakland Athletics, setting a team record for DL use. It also leads them with an all-lefty rotation:

    The A's recalled left-handers Dana Eveland and Dan Meyer from Triple-A Sacramento to join the rotation. Eveland, in his second stint with the A's this season, is scheduled to start on Saturday. Meyer is scheduled to pitch Sunday. He is also in his second stint with Oakland this year.

    The team now has an all left-handed, five-man rotation -- including Thursday's starter Greg Smith, Gio Gonzalez and Dallas Braden. The only other time Oakland has had an all-southpaw rotation was in 1973 with a four-man staff of Vida Blue, Ken Holtzman, Darold Knowles and Paul Lindlad.

    Sounds like something sinister is going on in Oakland. I can't imagine an all-lefty rotation works that well. Most hitters are still right-handed, after all.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 10:56 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
    Saving Roy
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    With Toronto leading the Yankees 13-3 after seven innings, Cito Gaston pulls Roy Halladay. He allowed all three New York runs in the seventh, but only threw 94 pitches. I'm sure Roy was more than capable of finishing the game, but Gaston does the right thing here. The Toronto pen should be able to easily finish this contest. There's no reason for Roy to go for the CG in this situation. Compare this to Sabathia's last start in which he was allowed to throw 130 pitches when the Brewers were winning big. I'm all for pitchers finishing what they start, but there are times to be conservative and games like these certainly qualify.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:43 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    Carl Returns
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    Carl Pavano starts Saturday against Baltimore. The Yankees might be better off with this Carl.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 03:24 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    Wainwright Returns
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    The Cardinals penciled in Adam Wainwright into the rotation. He starts tomorrow (Friday) against the Braves. At least they're giving him an easy first assignment.

    The Cardinals rotation is 23-18 with a 4.37 ERA since Wainwright went down. They were 29-15 with him as a starter, posting a 3.97 ERA.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 11:58 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Joba's Mechanics
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    Via Bronx Banter, an excellent essay on Joba Chamberlain's mechanics. To sum up, there are good points and bad points to Joba's delivery, but the biggest risk or injury comes from his throwing hard:

    The Yankees can work with Joba to make his mechanics more efficient, can strengthen the shoulder and the arm with a regimen that has proven to work, and they can baby him as much as they like. But sometimes a team simply has to hope for the best because even if a pitcher does everything right, there is still only so many pitches in a player's arm before the arm begins to give way and the pitcher loses the quality of his stuff. Just how many depends on many factors, most of which the Yankees and other teams will never know. For the Yankees sake, they should hope Joba is one of the lucky ones.
    Posted by StatsGuru at 11:34 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    August 20, 2008
    Buchholz Adds a Data Point
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    Earlier today, some bloggers wondered if Clay Buchholz's problems were bad luck, bad mechanics, or just Clay pitching badly. Giving up five runs in 2 1/3 innings with three walks and no strike outs seems to move things in the direction of pitching badly.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 10:16 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Luck, Suck or Muck
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    YFSF looks at the arguments over Clay Buchholz, one that he's been unlucky, and one that he's plain bad. This post by Center Field, however, indicates that Clay's mechanics were mucked up. We'll see how he does tonight from the stretch.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 01:11 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Taking a Sabathia
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    Ian Snell watched CC Sabathia on his iPhone and changed his pitching style. The result was a gem against the Cardinals. However, I wonder if it simply wasn't that Snell had become predictable. Reversing when he usually throws his fastball and slider would make guessing on a pitch more difficult. Maybe the pitch F/X mavens can comment on this?

    Posted by StatsGuru at 12:19 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    Lyon in August
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    Brandon Lyon came close to blowing a game for the Diamondbacks last night. Starting the ninth in a 7-3 game, he promptly gave up four hits, a walk and three runs. Over his last four outings, totalling 3 1/3 innings, he's allowed 11 hits and eight runs, seven of the earned. He's had a few bad outings this season, but this is the first time he bunched them together.

    The DBacks hang on for a 7-6 win and move into sole possession of first place in the NL West as the Dodgers fall to the Rockies 8-3. The Rockies hit three home runs off three different pitchers in the game, accounting for six of the runs.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 08:58 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    Back to the Shutouts
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    The Chicago White Sox pitching staff started the season strong. They pitched three shutouts in April and owned the second best ERA in the AL that month. They only recorded two more scoreless games from May through July. Lately, however, the shutouts returned. Clay Richard pitched six scoreless innings Tuesday night as the White Sox shut down the Mariners 5-0. It's their third shutout of August and third in their last eight games. In that stretch the team allowed just 15 runs.

    I thought this division race would come down to the good, young pitching of the Twins against the power hitting of the White Sox. Given the number of high scoring games by Minnesota lately and the excellent pitching coming out of Chicago, these two teams are turning out to be very well balanced. That's going to make this race even more interesting.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 08:19 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    Winning the Pot
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    Ricky Nolasco took home a little extra money Tuesday night:

    Ricky Nolasco won a pot of cash for his first career complete game - thanks to the Marlins' nearly two-year drought without a pitcher going the distance.

    Nolasco pitched a two-hitter for his first shutout and drove in two runs with his first double, leading the Marlins past the San Francisco Giants 6-0 on Tuesday night.

    His reward: the money that had been accumulating in Florida's complete-game pool started some time after Anibal Sanchez pitched the last such game on Sept. 16, 2006, a major league-record 301 games ago.

    Nolasco performed superbly in every aspect of the game. He threw strikes, with 78 of 110 pitches ending in a positive result. He showed great contol, walking just one batter. In striking out eleven, he reached double digits for the third time in his career, all this season. The strikeouts kept balls in play to a minimum, and only two made it through for hits. The bottom line for Ricky was his first career complete game and shutout and a new career high in wins with 12.

    His control really came together after the all-star break. In the first half of the season, Nolasco averaged an excellent 2.3 walks per nine. Since, however, he's dropped that rate to 1.1 walks per nine. It's resulted in a better ERA but not a better record. Still, if he keeps this up he should have a very strong finish to this season and become a leader of the rotation going into 2009.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 07:56 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    August 19, 2008
    The Two Ws
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    Daisuke Matsuzaka picks up five more walks and one more win as the Red Sox down the Orioles 7-2. He lasted just five innings, and unlike most of his games, he was not unhittable. Six of the 15 ball in play against Dice-K fell for hits. Still, despite allowing eleven base runners, only two of them managed to cross the plate. It wasn't pretty, but once again Matsuzaka gets the job done.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 10:54 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Harden versus Gallagher
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    So far, the Rich Harden for Sean Gallagher trade isn't working out well for the Athletics. Harden threw seven shutout innings for the Cubs tonight, walking none and striking out ten. That lowers his Cubs ERA to 1.50. The Cubs lead 5-0 in the ninth.

    Meanwhile, Gallagher gives up 11 hits in five innings as the Twins tattoo him for ten runs. His ERA goes up to 6.55. Minnesota leads 13-2 in the seventh.

    Update: The Cubs win 5-0 and tie the Rays for best record in the majors. A Rays Cubs series would be a great story. A power of ten difference in the length of their struggles.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 10:24 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
    August 18, 2008
    Stretching Sabathia
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    CC Sabathia goes 8-0 with the Brewers as the Astros fall 9-3. The big lefty picks up his fifth complete game since joining Milwaukee, throwing 130 pitches. Some people have suggested to me the Brewers are abusing CC with all the complete games, but his pitch counts before tonight were not outrageous. Tonight, however, makes me believe that a little more. With a 9-3 lead, why is he even out there for the ninth? While I love pitchers who finish what they start, in a blow out, give it to the pen. If the Brewers do make the playoffs, they don't want CC to wear out like he did against the Red Sox in 2007.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 11:05 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
    You Can't Spell Sabathia Without B-A-T
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    CC Sabathia was holding onto a 1-0 lead when the Astros intentionally walked Jason Kendall to load the bases with two outs. The big lefty goes with the pitch, singling to left to drive in two and give himself a little breathing room. He's now driven in four runs since joining the Brewers. Milwaukee leads 3-0 as they still bat in the bottom of the fourth.

    Update: A double by Durham and a single by Hardby plate three more runs and the Brewers go to the fifth with a 6-0 lead.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:22 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    The Zito Sandwich
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    Barry Zito pitched seven scoreless innings against the Braves this afternoon. This gives Barry a sandwich August. He started the month with eight shutout innings against the Padres, then gave up eleven runs in two starts against the Dodgers and Astros. He then puts the top slice of bread on with his performance today. It's all or nothing for Barry lately.

    The Giants lead the Braves 5-0 in the bottom of the ninth.

    Update: The game ends in a shutout. The Braves have scored two runs or less in six of their last eight games.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 07:04 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    August 17, 2008
    The Old Oswalt
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    Roy Oswalt pitched a one-hitter through eight innings as the Astros defeated the Diamondbacks 3-0. He walked two and struck out 10. Lance Berkman thought it was the best game he had seen from Roy in a while:

    "What a performance by Roy," Berkman said. "This is probably the best game I've seen him throw in two or three years."

    Oswalt (11-8) won his fifth consecutive decision in dominating fashion, retiring the final 15 batters he faced after giving up a two-out single to Stephen Drew in the third inning.

    Oswalt won his previous four decisions, and was showing signs to coming around. The Astros have to hope this marks a return to his former dominance.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 06:31 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Cy Sunday
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    In the Games of the Day post, I noted five NL Cy Young candidates were in action today. None of them hurt his chances this afternoon.

    Johan Santana turned in the strongest outing, a shutout against the Pirates. Not only did Santana go the distance for the second time this season, he allowed just three hits, all singles. He lowers his ERA to 2.75 and his batting average allowed to .231. The Mets win 4-0.

    Edinson Volquez walked four and struck out four over seven innings, but held the Cardinals scoreless He only allowed three hits, however, which is how he's operated all season. He can afford to walks a high number of batters because he gives up few hits to drive them around. The bullpen wasn't so good, but the Reds take the game 7-3.

    Tim Lincecum pitched into the eight before allowing his lone run of the day. Like Santana and Volquez, he gave up just three hits. He walked four to go along with ten strikeouts. He's just eight K away from 200 on the season. The Giants defeat the Braves 3-1. The Giants record is just 3 1/2 game worse than the Braves right now.

    Aaron Cook only lasted five innings, but his two runs allowed were low enough to earn him his 15th win. He was suffering from back stiffness, which probably led to his early exit. The 7-2 Rockies victory extends the Nationals losing streak to 10 games.

    Ryan Dempster stayed in the game long enough for the Cubs to score some runs, and wins his 14th as he allowed two runs over six innings. He had the Marlins swinging and missing for ten strikeouts, giving him 149 in 163 1/3 innings. The Marlins fall to the Cubs 9-2 and now trail the Mets by 4 1/2 games.

    Nice to see good pitchers living up to their billing.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 05:11 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Beckett Bopped Again
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    The Toronto Blue Jays score eight runs off Josh Beckett in 2 1/3 innings. It's the second time he's allowed that many runs in his last four games. Interestingly, each bad outing was preceded by an extremely good one in which Beckett allowed one run. Beckett's ERA goes to 4.34, over a run higher than in 2007. Part of the problem seems to be Fenway. Beckett's ERA at home this season is now 6.02.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 02:44 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Rotation, Rotation, Rotation
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    With Pedro Martinez putting together his third good outing in a row, the Mets rotation has gelled in August. The group is going deep in games and limiting opponents walks. Granted, their opposition hasn't been that stiff, but they're taking advantage of the lull in the schedule to get this group in shape. I thought if Santana and Pedro could form a good 1-2 punch the Mets would be tough to beat. That may turn out to be true over the last quarter of the season.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:53 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
    The Good Start
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    Matt Harrison put it all together for the Texas Rangers Saturday night as he pitched eight shutout innings in a 3-0 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays. It was easily the best pitched start of the year for the Rangers, surpassing two Padillia candidates of 5/7 and 7/20. Despite walking none and striking out eight in the game, Harrison still owns more walks (19) than strikeouts (15) on the season. His performance last night was much more indicative of his minor league career in which he held a better than 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio.

    The team shutout was the sixth for the Rangers staff this season. That ties them for 18th in the majors, much better than I would expect for a team with such a high ERA. The Tigers are last, having only thrown one team shutout in 2008.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:28 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    August 16, 2008
    Eight Complete
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    Roy Halladay completed his eighth game of the season as the Blue Jays spoiled the start of the Paul Byrd era in Boston 4-1. Halladay allowed seven hits and one walk, the only real mistake a home run by Dustin Pedroia. Roy erased three of the base runners with double plays as he only faced 32 batters on the night. Alex Rios added a triple and home run to score two and drive in two, more than enough for the Blue Jays to earn Halladay the win.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:27 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    Old Man's Game
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    Jamie Moyer and Greg Maddux showed that age and speed don't matter that much as they combined for 14 innings and one run allowed as the Phillies shutout the Padres 1-0. Moyer allowed three hits and two walks, while Maddux stayed in the strikezone, not walking a batter. Of his five hits allowed, the only one that mattered was to Pat Burrell, a solo home run that was all the scoring seen Friday night. It was the third time this season Maddux started a game in which the Padres failed to score. The Phillies offensive slump continues, but at least they found a team even weaker at the plate.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:36 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    August 15, 2008
    Complete-Lee
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    Cliff Lee wins his seventeenth game of the year as the Indians squeak by the Angels 3-2. Lee completed the job, his third CG of the season. That equals his total from the previous seasons of his career. Cliff allowed ten Angels to reach by a hit or walk, but also induced four double plays to erase nearly half of them. He needs one more win to equal his season high.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 10:00 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Pitching Prowess
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    The Mets ran their winning streak to four games as they defeat the Pirates 2-1. The hurlers are on, allowing just seven runs in the four games. Mike Pelfry pitched seven scoreless inning tonight, using his defense to great effect. Twenty four of the twenty five batters he faced put the ball in play, resulting in seven hits. He didn't allow more than two hits in any inning, however, and two double plays helped keep the Pirates off the board. The Mets hang on to first place in the NL East.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:46 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    August 14, 2008
    Durbin on the Dodgers
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    Chad Durbin blogs about his two blown says and how things have changed for the Dodgers offense:

    That said, the addition of Manny Ramirez and Casey Blake has certainly changed the level of pressure for some of the talented young players in the Dodgers lineup.

    The players hitting in the 7 and 8 holes were being asked to hit 3, 4 or 5 just a month or so ago. Confidence is high in Dodgertown. We play 162 games for a reason, the season will play itself out and weathering these storms is part of it.

    Manny add one more tough out to the lineup, forcing pitchers to work that much harder.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 08:19 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    The Streak Ends
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    In his second inning of work today, Brad Ziegler gives up a single to Iwamura and a double to B.J. Upton. Iwamura scores, ending Ziegler's scoreless inning streak at 39. Congratulations to Ziegler on his record and for overcoming two skull fractures to reach the majors.

    The game is tied at five as the team go to the 11th.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 07:17 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
    Down Goes Frasor
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    The Toronto bullpen entered this afternoon's game against the Tigers with a 2.87 ERA, the best in the game. They cannot, however, protect a 1-0 lead given to them by Jesse Litsch as Jason Frasor gives up two hits and three walks, and all five base runners come around to score as Shawn Camp comes in and give up a two-run single to clear Jason's runners.

    Armando Galarraga pitched eight stellar innings, walking two and striking out six. With the Tigers taking a 5-1 lead, his one-run effort may now result in a win.

    Update: Fernando Rodney retires the side in order, striking out two to preserve the win. Galarraga continues to have a great season for Detroit, making one wonder how well Texas would be doing if they kept Armando and Edinson Volquez. I guessing the Texas offense would still be pretty good without Josh Hamilton.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 03:37 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
    August 12, 2008
    Zinking Feeling
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    Charlie Zink replaces Tim Wakefield today as the Red Sox lose one knuckleballer to the disabled list and gain another:

    With Zink having a stellar season in Pawtucket - 13-4 with a 2.89 ERA - he was an obvious candidate to fill an opening in the rotation, no matter who went down. But because it was Wakefield, that makes the transition even smoother. The one problem was that Zink last pitched Friday, meaning today's start will be on three days of rest, though that is less of a concern for a 28-year-old knuckleballer than it would be for a more traditional pitcher.

    "I think everybody felt it was kind of a breakout year for him," manager Terry Francona said. "I've heard his name a lot - not like somebody's beating my door down - but if you look at the reports, he's done well.

    "This seems like a really good opportunity to let him pitch. He's been throwing the ball well. The idea will be to slow the Rangers down a little bit."

    Though Wakefield threw entirely knuckleballs in his last start, against the Royals, Zink's game is slightly different. He throws fewer "other" pitches, like fastballs and curveballs, even though his fastball is faster than Wakefield's, coming in around the low to mid 80s. Red Sox director of player development Mike Hazen said recently that Zink's improvement from last year (11-6, 4.63, between Portland and Pawtucket) to this has to do with an increased maturity level and an increased commitment to throwing knuckleballs in any count.

    Zink doesn't think the Red Sox will carry two knuckleballers. I don't see why not. The knuckleball isn't a pitch batters can learn to predict, because no one ever knows where it's going. If a knuckleball pitcher is effective, the only reason not to carry multiple copies is to save your catchers.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 07:22 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
    August 11, 2008
    No-No Danks
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    Through five innings, the Red Sox have yet to record a hit against John Danks. In fact, no one has reached as the Red Sox put 15 up and Danks set 15 down.

    Update: Danks hits Ellsbury in the back with two out to end the perfecto. The no-hitter is still intact.

    Update: Crisp grounds into a force play to end the inning. Danks is nine outs away from a no-hitter.

    Update: Youkilis breaks his bat and dumps a hit into short left-center. The White Sox still lead 1-0.

    Update: Drew doubles after a Lowell walk and the Red Sox take a 2-1 lead.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:20 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Heilman no Fireman
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    Aaron Heilman blows the save against the Pirates as Ryan Doumit singles with men on first and second, driving in a run to tie the game at five. It's Heilman's third blown save of the season. After a hit by pitch, the Pirates have the bases loaded with one out.

    The pen ruined a great start by Pedro Martinez, who allowed just one run over six innings. Schoeneweis is coming in to try to keep the game tied.

    Update: Schoeneweis gets a groundball that's turned into an out at the plate, but Steve Pearce singles in two runs to put the Pirates up 7-5. They've scored six runs off the Mets bullpen this afternoon.

    Update: John Grabow gives up a hit but induces a double play as he picks up his second save. The Pirates win 7-5. It's only their fourth win since the big trade at the deadline in 10 games.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 04:34 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    August 10, 2008
    The Three Seasons of Brandon Webb
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    Brandon Webb took home his 17th win of the season as the Diamondbacks defeated the Braves 6-1. Webb's season can be divided into three parts. Through May 21st, he went 9-1 with a 2.69 ERA. He then went through a rough stretch of eight games ending July 3rd. During that time he was 3-3 with a 4.53 ERA. The big difference was his home runs allowed. His rate was three times higher than earlier. In his last seven starts, including Sunday's, he's 5-0 with a 1.59 ERA. He's yet to allow a home run in this stretch.

    Interestingly, his strikeouts were highest during his poor stretch. It makes me wonder if he was overthrowing, not getting his good sink on the ball during that time.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 08:36 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Fit Not to be Tied
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    Mariano Rivera comes into a tie game with the winning run at second and gives up a single as the Angels earn a 4-3 victory over the Yankees. Rivera is nearly perfect in save opportunites, but does just okay otherwise:

    Rivera 2008Save OppsOther Games
    ERA0.313.00
    Innings29 1/321
    Earned Runs17
    Hits1318

    It does hold up over Rivera's career. He has a 1.31 ERA in save situations, 3.43 otherwise.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 08:04 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
    Gagne Gone
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    Eric Gagne was on a hot streak over his last seven games. That ended today as he allows two home runs with two out for a total of three runs in the eighth. The Brewers no trail Washington 4-1.

    Update: Mike Rivera hit a double with the bases loaded in the bottom of the eighth to clear the bases and tie the game. The Nats and Brewers are now tied at four in the tenth.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 04:26 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    My, Lee! Cy Lust?
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    Cliff Lee inched closer to the AL Cy Young award with eight shutout innings against the Toronto Blue Jays. His record goes to 16-2 and his ERA drops to 2.45. Lee earns the win by letting his defense help him out. He faced 31 batters with 30 putting the ball in play. Lee walked none and struck out one. The Blue Jays were just 8 for 30 putting the ball in play today, a .266 BA. With all but one of those hits going for singles, they just couldn't create a sustained rally or move runners very far.

    Lee gets his sixth short shutout, tying him with CC Sabathia and Jon Lester for the major league lead.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 04:18 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    August 09, 2008
    Two Returns
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    Ian Kennedy's great performances at AAA didn't translate to the majors. He also doesn't seem to realize how poorly he pitched.

    Kennedy (0-4) allowed nine hits in his short stint, five in a row to start the third inning. But the 23-year-old right-hander didn't think he pitched poorly.

    "I felt like I made some good pitches," he said. "I'm not too upset about it. ... What was it, a bunch of singles and three doubles? I'm just not real upset about it. I'm just going to move on and I've already done that."

    Joe Girardi didn't share that opinion. In his world, nine hits over two-plus innings is something to be upset about.

    "That's not what you want," the manager said. "You've got to get better the next start. He's got some work to do, and we'll get him ready."

    Good pitches are what CC Sabathia made to the Nationals last night. Kennedy needs to learn to take responsibility for his poor outings.

    Meanwhile, the Dodgers returned Brad Penny to the rotation. He was given a somewhat easier assignment as he faced the Giants and Barry Zito. He allowed one hit over five innings, but walked three without striking out a batter. His control wasn't that good , 32 balls, 44 strikes.

    Asked if the Penny he saw was an improvement over the stiff-shouldered pitcher who was 0-7 in the eight starts leading up to his being put on the disabled list, Manager Joe Torre replied, "I think it's too early to say that."

    At least Penny has a positive outing on which to build.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:29 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
    August 08, 2008
    Ziegler Adds a Save
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    Brad Ziegler pitches two more scoreless innings to extend his streak to 37, tying the team record held by Mike Torrez. He also earned his first Major League save. Given the Athletics closer problems, he may end up in that role, possibly as a two inning closer.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 11:40 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    One Run Wonder
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    The Orioles shut down the best offense in the majors as they defeat the Rangers 9-1. Jeremy Guthrie lasts seven innings. For the third straight game, Guthrie allowed just one run. That's good for a 1.21 ERA over the three starts.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 10:57 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    O's for Oliver
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    Oliver Perez continues his roll with seven shutout innings against the Marlins as the Mets take the game 3-0. That puts the Mets into second place in the NL East as they move 1/2 game ahead of the Fish. With his seven shutout innings, Perez now holds a 1.71 ERA over his last eight starts. His ERA always goes hand-in-hand with his control, and he's struck out 55 while walking 18 in his last 52 2/3 innings.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 10:26 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Finding Control
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    Charlie Morton walked 20 in his first 39 2/3 innings this season. For his second start in a row, however, Morton walked one while striking out four over seven innings. That was good enough for him to keep the Diamondbacks off the board. The bullpen had some trouble, but Atlanta walks away with a 6-4 win.

    The Arizona loss allows the Dodgers to gain a game, cutting the lead in the NL West to two games.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 12:33 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    One More Zero for Ziegler
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    I have to remind myself to look at Ziegler's line every night. He pitched another inning today, bringing his scoreless streak to 35 innings. He did give up two hits, something that's rather unusual for him as he's only allowed 21 hits all season. The two were singles, and not only has he not allowed a home run, the 21 hits are all singles.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 12:16 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    One More Zero for Ziegler
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    I have to remind myself to look at Ziegler's line every night. He pitched another inning today, bringing his scoreless streak to 35 innings. He did give up two hits, something that's rather unusual for him as he's only allowed 21 hits all season. The two were singles, and not only has he not allowed a home run, the 21 hits are all singles.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 12:16 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    August 07, 2008
    No-Run Mike
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    Mike Mussina picks up a short shutout tonight as he lasts seven innings in the Yankees 3-0 win over the Rangers. It's Mussina's third short shutout of the season, all coming in his last seven games. He's given up just one earned run in fourteen innings during his two August starts.

    Mussina reaches 15 wins for the 11th time in his career. If he wins 20 games (for the first time in his career) and the Yankees manage to make the playoffs, does he get the Cy Young over Lee and Halladay?

    The Rangers lose a golden opportunity to gain on the Yankees in the wild card race. According to the Yankees broadcast, this is the fourth time this season New York lost the first two games of a four-game series, only to come back and gain the split.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 11:45 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
    Hamels a Hitter
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    Cole Hamels breaks up Chris Volstad's no hitter with two out in the fifth. Hamels is 15 for 54 on the season, a .278 batting average. The Marlins lead 1-0 as Hamels seems to have come out of the funk of his previous two starts. He's allowed three hits and one walk while striking out six.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 02:18 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    August 06, 2008
    High for Lowe
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    The Cardinals knocked out 13 hits tonight against Derek Lowe, scoring eight runs against him. That matches his career high, set twice before. However, in his previous 13 hits games he lasted longer, 5 2/3 innings on 6/1/2005 and 8 1/3 innings on 8/25/2002.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 11:55 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Typical Kendrick
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    The Phillies shut out the Marlins 5-0 to insure they'll stay in first at the end of the series. Kyle Kendrick pitched the first six innings, and in what seems to be the norm for Kyle, came away with a great result despite not pitching that well. He allowed five walks and four hits while striking out four. His strike percentage was less than 60%. Kendrick was able to spread the hits out so the Marlins didn't get more than one in any inning, so the walks didn't hurt. Kendrick is now 20-9 on his career, a .690 winnings percentage.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 10:07 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Marcumed Up
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    Shaun Marcum pitches a good game in his fourth start back from the disabled list. He gave up 16 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings, but tonight went seven strong innings, allowing just one run. He struck out seven Athletics while walking two. How much was improvement by Marcum or a poor A's offense we'll wait to see. The Blue Jays win 5-1.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 10:03 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Santana in Control
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    Ervin Santana's magic season continued today as the Angels downed the Orioles 9-4. He struck out seven while walking none. That gives him 150 strikeouts on the season against just 39 walks. That's pretty close to a 4.0 K/BB. For his career, it's 2.4, which is still very good.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 06:22 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Perfect Through Five
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    Jeff Karstens holds on to a 1-0 lead after five innings as he's retired all 15 batters he faced. He gave up two long fly balls to center in the fifth, but Jason Michaels chased them down. He's thrown just 58 pitches.

    The only run came off a Freddy Sanchez home run off Randy Johnson. The Big Unit has only allowed two hits while striking out four, and it was the first run he's allowed since the All-Star break.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 04:48 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Taking One for the Team
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    Brandon Backe allows eight runs in the third inning against the Cubs today, but comes out to start the fourth. He pitches poorly again, giving up a run and his reliever letting in a second. Backe is charged with eleven runs, all earned, and his ERA jumps .60.

    The Cubs lead 11-4 in the bottom of the sixth.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 04:34 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Climbing ERA
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    When a pitcher starts a game with an ERA over 7.00, there's a good chance that ERA comes down. Homer Baily managed to raise his today, giving up six earned runs in 5 1/3 innings as the Reds fall to the Brewers 6-3. Bailey's phenonmenal strike out rate hasn't translated to the majors. He's only struck out 18 in 36 1/3 innings. That's led to 59 hits, good for a .378 opposition batting average.

    The Brewers are now 2-0 since the Fielder fight, outscoring their opponents 14-4. Milwaukee seems to be focused on both sides of the ball again.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 04:19 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Penny for you Thoughts
    Permalink

    The Los Angeles Dodgers penciled in Brad Penny for Friday's start against the Giants.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:13 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Rough Night for Relievers
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    J.J. Putz

    J.J. Putz tries a new release point.
    Photo:Icon SMI

    As I went off to bed Tuesday night, the Tigers took the lead over the White Sox and the Twins took the lead over the Mariners. When I woke up Wednesday morning, I noticed the White Sox came back in the bottom of the fourteenth, hanging a blown-save on Joel Zumaya. Nick Swisher did the damage with a three-run homer.

    Meanwhile, after J.J. Putz helped the Twins to a 7-6 lead in the eighth inning (Jimenez and Corcoran did most of the damage), Guerrier and Nathan gave the runs back in the bottom of the inning. Both closers picked up blown saves, but at least Putz earned the win.

    Due to the poor relief pitching, Chicago takes first place in the AL Central instead of the Twins. It was the theme across baseball last night. After John Lanna pitched seven strong innings against the Rockies, Washington relievers turned a 2-2 tie into an 8-2 rout. Giants relievers gave up eight runs as Atlanta wins 11-4.

    Overall, batters hit .307 against relief pitchers last night with a .388 OBA and a .510 OBA. Batters collected 269 more at bats against starters last night, but hit two fewer home runs. Major League relievers blew 10 saves last night, tying July 2nd for most blown saves in a day this season. Last night, teams needed relief from the relief.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 08:22 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Fresh Waters
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    Chris Waters makes a very successful debut for the Baltimore Orioles. He pitches eight shutout innings against the top team in the AL, the LAnaheim Angels. He holds them to one hit while walking three and striking out three. His minor league record isn't very impressive, but at 27 years old (seasonal age) he should be at the peak of his athletic performance. He certainly made the most of his opportunity in the big leagues.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 12:33 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    August 05, 2008
    Marlins Wins
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    My latest column at SportingNews.com looks at the near future success of the Marlins rotation.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 05:00 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    The Price is Right
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    Beyond the Boxscore wonders if David Price should be brought to the majors the same way as Joba Chamberlain, in the bullpen.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 11:31 AM | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
    August 04, 2008
    Fifteen for Lee
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    Cliff Lee's remarkable season continues with his fifteenth win, a 5-2 victory in Tampa Bay. Lee goes seven innings allowing two runs, leaving his ERA unchanged at 2.58. He walked two tonight, only the sixth time this season he walked at least two.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 10:30 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Deep Pitcher
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    Roy Halladay dispatches the Oakland Athletics easily as he allows four hits and one run over eight innings. It's the eleventh time this year Halladay threw at least eight innings. With eight strikeouts and one walk, Halladay now has a K/BB of 5.14.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 09:14 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    Ziegler Gets a Stat
    Permalink

    Via The Book Blog, Joe Posnanski invents the Ziegler Number, a way to measure the effectiveness of pitchers. Pretty cool, and Joe gets an assist from Brian Bannister.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 03:33 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Committee Meeting
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    The Athletics go to a closer by committee model.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 01:47 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Owning the Giants
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    John Shea notes Greg Maddux's dominance of San Francisco ranks at the top since the Giants moved west:

    Six pitchers have started at least 50 games against the Giants since '58, and Maddux has the lowest ERA (2.78) and best winning percentage (.682) and is tied with Phil Niekro and Don Sutton for most wins (30).

    Here are the complete stats for the six. If you reduce the qualification to 30 starts, you'll see Maddux's ERA no longer ranks one, but he still does very well versus other Hall of Famers.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 08:26 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    August 03, 2008
    Rare RBI
    Permalink

    Greg Maddux won the 352nd game of his career, pitching six one-run innings against the Giants. San Francisco took a 1-0 lead in the top of the first, but in the bottom of the second, Maddux drove in the tying run with a single. It's his first RBI since 8/30/2006. He's been a pretty poor hitter in the intervening games.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 07:34 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    Controlling the Dice
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    Daisuke Matsuzaka walks two and strikes out eight over six innings of work as the Red Sox sweep the Athletics 5-2. It was pretty much his best ratio of Ks and BBs since his 0 walk, nine strikeout effort against these same A's on April first. Matsuzaka is now 12-2 with a 3.04 ERA.

    Jason Bay picks up two more hits and scores twice. His OBA in the three-game series is .533.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 05:59 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Saving Zambrano
    Permalink

    The Cubs defeat the Pirates 8-5 to extend their lead in the NL Central to five games. Carlos Zambrano came out after five innings in which he allowed two runs, one earned. His control wasn't great as only 47 of 82 pitches were strikes. Maybe Lou Piniella thought they could beat the Pirates with the bullpen and why not give Carlos some rest? Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez and Reed Johnson all homered in the win.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 05:50 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    Farnsworth Flies
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    Kyle Farnsworth manages to make his trade not work for both teams. The Tigers are up 3-1 on the Rays when they bring in Kyle to pitch the eighth. He gives up a solo shot to Eric Hinske leading off the inning, then a two-run shot to B.J. Upton. He puts the Tigers in a hole and may prevent the Yankees from gaining a game on Tampa Bay.

    Update: Granderson homers to tie the game in the top of the ninth as Percival blows the save.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 04:23 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    Successful Return
    Permalink

    Francisco Liriano leaves after six innings, allowing no runs. The Indians managed just three hits and three walks, while Francisco struck out five. A more than solid outing for the this ace. They lead 5-0 in the top of the seventh, while the White Sox trail the Royals 10-0 in the sixth.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 03:56 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    O's for Olsen
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    Scott Olsen just finished the fifth inning, and the Rockies have yet to record a hit against the Marlins starter. He's walked two. Olsen has thrown a high number of pitches, however, 78.

    Update: An infield hit by Taveras breaks up the no-no with one out in the sixth. The Marlins lead the Rockies 2-0.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 02:29 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    The Return of Liriano
    Permalink

    Francisco Liriano gets off to a good start in the first. He retires the Indians in order, striking out two. I'm interested to hear what Twins fans think of his delivery. It used to be known for it's violence. He seems somewhat more in control of his mechanics now.

    Update: Blyleven just addressed this. The Twins are trying to get Liriano to keep his right shoulder in to reduce the violence of his delivery.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 02:15 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    Eveland of Destruction
    Permalink

    The Oakland Athletics sent Dana Eveland to the minors today. Dana's control started detiriorating in June. In April and May he walked 26 in 66 1/3 innings. Since, he's walked 38 in 58 2/3 innings.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 01:36 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    August 02, 2008
    Two for One
    Permalink

    Mike Mussina allowed two hits over seven innings to help the Yankees to an 8-2 win over the Angels, ending LAnaheim's winning streak of five games. Mussina could have allowed no runs except for a poor attempt at turning a double play. He retired the last seventeen batters he faced.

    The win takes Mike's record to 14-7. If he maintain two wins for one loss the rest of the way, it will be his 8th season with a winning percentage of .667 or better. He's now 264-151 for his career, a .636 winning percentage.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 06:56 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
    K Machine
    Permalink

    Chad Gaudin turned into Mr. Control since joining the Cubs. He faced two batters today and struck out one to bring his total to 14 in 12 1/3 innings with Chicago, while only walking one. Combined with Rich Harden, the two have K'd 53 batters in 37 Cubs innings. Chicago takes down Pittsburgh 5-1.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 04:16 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    August 01, 2008
    Two More for the Z-Man
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    The Athletics and Red Sox are tied at one in the bottom of the tenth. Brad Ziegler pitches two more scoreless innings to bring his streak to 32 innings. He'd have to give up seven runs to bring his ERA close to 2.00.

    Mike Lowell limps off the field after reaching on an infield single. That would be a tough loss for the Sox if it's a serious injury.

    Update: The Red Sox leave the bases loaded in the 10th. This one goes to 11.

    Update: Oakland walks Drew, then Lowrie chops one up the middle. It bounces over Embree's head, Crosby fields, but double pumps and Lowrie beats it out. Bay scores and the Red Sox win 2-1 in 12. Bay reached base four times, with the triple, two walks and a hit by pitch. Nice start to Bay's Red Sox career.

    Update: Jason Bay just tripled with two out in the 12th. It scraped the wall and for a minute it looked like a walk-off home run.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 10:05 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Not Ready for Prime Time
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    Homer Bailey came into tonight's game with an 0-4 record and a 6.52 ERA. He drew an easy assignment, facing the hapless Washington Nationals offense. Bailey gives up five runs in two innings, all earned, to raise his ERA to 7.55.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 08:21 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    You can Ring my Anibal
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    The Marlins didn't land a big name at the trade deadline, but they did improve the team. Anibal Sanchez returned Thursday after 1 1/2 years out to pitch 5 2/3 innings and pick up a win. He allowed two runs, walked two and struck out four. He threw 95 pitches, so the Marlins didn't feel they really needed to baby him. A rotation that looked very shaky at the start of the season now throws out Nolasco, Johnson, Volstad and Sanchez as their front four.

    I've been expecting the Marlins to decline because of their pitching. Now, that's not the case. The successful return from injury of Johnson and Sanchez suddenly gives Florida a rotation that's more than capable of winning with the kind of runs support the offense produces with their power (2 home runs, 12 runs Thursday). An all Florida World Series doesn't seem far fetched at this point.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 07:53 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
    July 30, 2008
    Thirty Something
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    Brad Ziegler pitches three scoreless innings to push his scoreless innings streak to 30 innings. His shutout relief appearance allows Oakland to tie Kansas City at three with a run in the seventh. Street is on to pitch the ninth.

    Ziegler already set the record for consecutive scoreless innings at the start of a major league career. I guess he sets his sights on Hershiser now.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 06:14 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Back to the Minors
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    The Diamondbacks optioned Micah Owing to the minor leagues. Major League teams can't sustain a pitcher with a 9.00 ERA.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 08:47 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    Low Scoring Night
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    The Dodgers defeat the Giants 2-0 to finish the evening. There were 11 teams tonight that held their opponents to two runs or less. Two of them loss. Two other teams were shutout 3-0. At least there were a lot of runs in the Seattle-Texas game.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 12:56 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
    July 29, 2008
    Davis Stays Perfect
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    Doug Davis retires the side in order in the fifth, striking out the last two batters. He's struck out five total so far. He's also induced seven ground outs.

    Posted by StatsGuru at 11:26 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)