Baseball Musings: Stats vs. Scouts

March 17, 2007

Stats vs. Scouts

Bobby Livingston may turn out to be a good example of the stats vs. scouts debate. A successful minor league pitcher in the Seattle system, the Reds were able to claim him off waivers because the Mariners didn't like Livingston's fastball:

Cincinnati was more than pleased to lay claim.
So does a major-league pitcher have to throw 90 or higher? A left-hander?

As Livingston talked about it, seated across the clubhouse was Reds Hall of Famer lefthander Tom Browning, who not only never broke the sound barrier, he probably couldn't break glass, but pitched a perfect game.

Livingston operates in Browning-like fashion -- work quickly, throw strikes, move the ball in, out, up and down and never, ever throw one right down the middle.

"I know what I'm doing out there, not just throwing the ball," he said. "You can tell I know what I'm doing, and I'm not just trying to blow the ball past people. When you don't throw 95, you spot the ball, move it around, change speeds."

Of his lack of velocity, Livingston said, "Seattle was always harping on the gun and how hard you threw or didn't throw. When I had success (in the minors), nobody every said anything to me about my velocity. The name of the game is getting outs, even if they're hitting the ball hard. As long as they are outs.

Livingston's strikeout rate in the minors was acceptable, but his walks and home run rates were outstanding. So far, he's pitched five bad innings in the majors. We'll see if the Mariners lack of confidence is the Reds gain.

Posted by David Pinto at 01:03 PM | Pitchers | TrackBack (0)

Comments

I think he could be a success, at least for a couple years (which would make him a steal since they got him for barely anything). Most batters are looking for fast pitches nowadays and if you have a rotation with one slow-but-clever guy in there or a bullpen with that guy... the hitters might not really adjust but find themselves guessing more. Either way, if he's having success, then I say he's worth risking a little on. I like this move by the Reds.

Posted by: Devon Young at March 17, 2007 01:45 PM

For every Tom Browning, there are probably a hundred soft-tossers who never make it. I agree that sometimes talent evaluators are too enamored of radar guns and stopwatches. But there are perfectly good reasons for preferring pitchers who can bring heat; it's a hell of a lot easier to have a major-league career if you can miss bats. And the best way to do that is with a live fastball.

Pitchers like Livingston are living on the razor's edge: hoping the batters don't quite hit the ball square, or if they do, that it's caught by somebody. Very little margin for error there.

Having said that, he might turn out to be the next Tom Browning... and as the previous commenter said, it's a low-risk move for the Reds. As long as they're not counting on him to be a major contributor, why not give him a shot?

Posted by: jvwalt at March 17, 2007 05:25 PM

Like most Mariner pitchers Livingston was rushed too fast through the system. When he basically made the jump from AA to the bigs (just a few innings in AAA), and he couldn't meet expectations, he was out the door. It seems like he went from the next Jamie Moyer to trade bait overnight.

Posted by: dj at March 17, 2007 06:57 PM

"Pitchers like Livingston are living on the razor's edge: hoping the batters don't quite hit the ball square, or if they do, that it's caught by somebody. Very little margin for error there."

Bah - that's every pitcher! There's plenty of hard throwers that don't make it either because they groove pitches too often, or don't know how to PITCH - they just THROW. Batting practice - that's what happens when you have a slow OR fast thrower grooving pitches. MLB players are so good, that if you can't change speeds and locations, it won't matter how hard you throw. They practice in cages with the machine firing at 90-95 mph - they can hit a fastball that's grooved just as easily as a 85 mph one.

Posted by: cephyn at March 17, 2007 09:22 PM

Well, sure, a lousy fastball is just as bad as a lousy junkball. But there is a ton of evidence to support the idea that pitchers with good fastballs have a leg up on the soft tossers. There are exceptions; Jamie Moyer is the most obvious. But the vast majority of soft tossers never make it or have very short careers. They sometimes have stretches of excellence, but they can't sustain for the long haul because they ARE living on the edge. Their control has to be pinpoint; the defense behind them has to be solid; and they have to enjoy a certain amount of luck.

I'm not talking about pure throwers here; I'm talking about quality pitchers. If you have two pitchers who have the same amount of control and smarts -- one with a 95 mph fastball and one who tops out at 85 -- it's virtually certain that the 95er will have the more successful career.

Posted by: jvwalt at March 17, 2007 09:56 PM

Free Colter Bean!

Posted by: shawn at March 17, 2007 09:59 PM

I really think it's the difference in speed that confuses hitters. Most hitters work on timing - once they get a guy timed right, they can hit his fastball. Guys with large differentials in how hard they throw (which would be guys with good fastballs) can confuse a hitter's timing more.

So hard throws do have an edge, but just throwing hard doesn't mean much if you don't have something else to fool hitters with.

Posted by: JeremyR at March 17, 2007 11:02 PM

"Not only never broke the sound barrier..." ?!? That is just craptacular on so many levels.

Posted by: TK at March 18, 2007 12:56 AM

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