Tim Malcolm argues that the Phillies should wait on Chase Utley until his hip is healed. His reasoning is poor, however:

One thing the Phillies have proved is April isn't as important as August in the marathon of baseball.

Tell that to the 1982 Dodgers or the 1984 American League East. Most years, it's okay to go 11-11 in April, but what if another team goes 17-5? That's a big hole for early in the season. Fans should not depend on their team being able to turn on the wins late. Past performance in no indicator of future returns.

It seems most of the country think the Yankees are going to win the AL East this year.

The Big Lead notices some NL East trash talk:

"I don't think it affects us much," general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. insisted yesterday at the winter meetings at the posh Bellagio. "They've had Billy Wagner, and we still beat them the last 2 years in our division."

It's one thing to own a great closer. It's another to get that lead to the ninth inning.

Update: In a similar vein, this made me chuckle.

The veterans turned in the big plays tonight. Ken Griffey made a superb throw to cut down the Twins only chance for a run at the plate, and Jim Thome lauched a ball over everything in centerfield for the only run of the game. Two of the great home run hitters getting the job done with the bat and the glove.

John Danks showed why he's the ace of the White Sox staff. He pitched efficiently, throwing just 103 pitches over eight innings. He kept the Twins off balance, allowing just two hits and three walks. It's unfortunate that he'll only get one start in the ALDS.

We now have two chances for local World Series with the Chicago and LA teams all in the playoffs. The Cubs and White Sox met in the World Series in 1906.

The Twins have three outs to score at least one run. It's piranha time.

Update: Jenks comes on to pitch. Kubel pinch hits and leads off.

Update: Kubel strikes out swinging. Span is up.

Update: Span grounds out to Swisher at first. It's up to Alexi Casilla. He flares one to center, and Anderson makes a diving catch to end the game. The White Sox win 1-0!

Harris picks up a one-out single in the eighth, but Punto grounds into a double play to end the inning. That's the third double play turned by the White Sox this game, but the first GDP.

The Twins and White Sox just reached the seventh inning stretch. Chicago collected two hits so far and the Twins one. Danks is at 93 pitches, Blackburn at 71. With no score, it looks like the bullpens won't be needed much tonight unless the game goes into extra innings.

Update: Harold Reynolds makes the "hats off" reference, and Jim Thome goes deep, hitting the ball out beyond the centerfield fence. The White Sox take a 1-0 lead.

Update: Back in 1997 or 1998, Baseball Tonight was down at Disney World during spring training, broadcasting from the ESPN Club. Jim Thome was a guest on the show one night, and was supposed to get a Baseball Tonight cap. For some reason, he didn't get it, or lost it, so whenever he did something good from then on, Karl Ravech would say, "Hats off to Jim Thome."

Update: Griffey doubles, the Twins walk Alexei Ramirez, and that's it for Blackburn. He pitches a great game, but won't get the win due to a better peformance by Danks.

Update: That's all the White Sox get. They are now six outs away from a trip to play the Rays.

Through three innings, the Twins have yet to collect a hit off John Danks. He's walked two and struck out two. The game is still scoreless going to the bottom of the third.

Update: Danks retires the Twins 1-2-3 in the fourth, striking out Mauer again. He's down to .329.

Update: Michael Cuddyer leads off the fifth with a double. The Twins get three shots at driving in the first run.

Update: Cuddyer gets to third with one out and tries to score on a fly ball to shallow centerfield. Griffey throws him out easily with a nice block of the plate by Pierzynski. The game remains scoreless.

John Danks walks the leadoff hitter, but a line drive on a hit and run erases him in a double play. Mauer strikes out to end the inning, but his BA stays at .330.

Update: Blackburn gives up a leadoff single, but gets Wise to ground into a reverse force GDP. No score after one.

Sunday afternoon turned out to be a great one for baseball. The Extra Innings package worked out great as I was able to monitor all four important games on the mix channel, and flip to the one with the most action at the moment. The two NL games went down to the wire, and the two AL games were competitive until the late innings. There were a number of great pitching performances, most notably Sabathia's complete game. That was made possible by Dale Sveum allowing CC to bat with the score tied at one in the bottom of the eighth. He made the first out, but the Brewers put two runs on the board anyway. We saw joy in Milwaukee, tragedy in New York, and Minnesota and Chicago keeping the season alive. We get to see it all, thanks to technology.

Joe Mauer triples in two runs to give the Twins a 6-0 lead in the bottom of the eighth. The two for five day keeps his batting average at .330. Pedroia is 2 for 3 in the Red Sox game, his average sitting at .327. If the Twins need to playoff for the division on Tuesday, the game counts toward regular season stats, so the batting title may not be settled today, depending on Pedroia's performance in the night-cap.

Update: Pedroia is now 2 for 4, hitting .326.

Update: Joe Nathan gets three outs in the ninth and the Twins win 6-0. Scott Baker pitches brilliantly, allowing four hits and one walk over seven innings while striking out nine. He lowers his ERA to 3.45, which should put him in the top ten for ERA.

The win puts the pressure on the White Sox. If Chicago loses tomorrow, the Twins fly to Tampa Bay. Otherwise, they travel to Chicago to settle the AL Central.

The Mets bullpen holds the Marlins in the ninth. The teams go to the bottom of the inning, New York needing two runs to keep their season alive. Wright, Chavez and the pitcher are scheduled to bat.

Update: David Wright pops out to second for the first out.

Update: Chavez hits a comebacker to the pitcher, but Easley pinch hits and walks. That brings up Church, who hits one deep to center. It's caught, however, and the Mets lose 4-2. The crowd watches the Marlins celebrate on the field, but New York disappoints once again.

The Yankees are winning game one of their double header, and if they win game two, the team from the Bronx will end up with a better record than the Mets. So much for winning the back pages.

Congratulations to the Brewers on their wild card win. The move to Sveum worked, and the bigger move, acquiring Sabathia worked great. It will be a sad closing ceremony coming up to close Shea.

There will be baseball on Monday. The White Sox defeat the Indians 5-1 behind a fine pitching performance by Mark Buehrle. He goes seven innings, giving up nine hits but just one run on the Peralta homer. They'll play Detroit tomorrow, and possibly the Twins on Tuesday for the division.

Update: It just became more likely the White Sox will need to win tomorrow's game. Delmon Young just drove in two runs with a bases loaded single to give the Twins a 4-0 lead in the bottom of the seventh.

Update: The Monday game is scheduled for 1:05 PM CDT in Chicago.

CC starts the inning against Alfonso Soriano.

Update: Soriano flies to left. Ryan Theriot is next.

Update: Theriot singles to center to bring up Derrek Lee.

Update: Lee grounds into a 4-6-3 double play, and the Brewers win! It's his seventh complete game with the Brewers and tenth of the season. Milwaukee will fly either to Philadelphia or New York next. The Mets have two on with two out for Carlos Delgado in the bottom of the eighth.

Update: Delgado drives a ball to the warning track in left, but it's caught for the third out. The Mets have one more turn at bat to keep themselves in the playoffs.

Wes Helms pinch hits to get a right-handed bat against Scott Schoeneweis and Helms takes him deep over the leftfield wall. That was the only batter for Scott, and he leaves to boos. The Brewers are coming to bat in the bottom of the eighth with a chance to win the Wild Card by taking the lead.

Update: Amazingly, the Brewers let Sabathia bat. I guess they really don't trust their bullpen.

Update: Luis Ayala gives up a home run to Dan Uggla and the Marlins take a 4-2 lead on the Mets. As I type this, Ryan Braun hits a two-run homer for the Brewers, and they're up 3-1! A two game turnaround.

Update: Fielder strikes out to end the inning, and CC Sabathia is coming out to cement the win. He's allowed three hits, one unearned run, one walk and struck out seven through eight innings. If he wins this game, I suspect the Brewers will break the bank to keep him next season.

With men on second and third in the bottom of the seventh, Jermaine Dye bloops a two-out single into center, scoring both runners. Chicago opens up a 5-1 lead on Cleveland. A win by the White Sox forces a makeup game with Detroit Monday.

Ray Durham leads off the bottom of the seventh with a double for the Brewers. It's their first hit since the first inning.

Update: Braun hits a ball to Casey McGehee behind the third base bag. Casey can't look Durham back, and Ray advances to third on the throw to first. Fielder needs to send a ball deep or get a base hit to score Durham from third with one out. After falling behind 2-0, the Cubs walk Prince.

Update: Michael Wuertz comes into the game and walks J.J. Hardy on four pitches to load the bases with one out. Meanwhile, in New York, Jorge Cantu smacks a 3-1 pitch deep into left, and Chavez makes a great catch to end the innings and keep the Marlins/Mets game tied at two.

Update: Corey Hart goes down on three sliders from Wuertz as he strikes out with the bases loaded. It's up to Counsell.

Update: Counsell walks with the bases loaded, and the Brewers and Cubs are tied at one. Jason Kendall is up to try to give the Brewers the lead.

Update: Kendall grounds out, and the Brewers finish the seventh tied at one. The Marlins and Mets remain tied at two.

Robinson Canel pinch hits for Joe Smith and draws a leadoff walk in the bottom of the sixth. One out later, Carlos Beltran hits a home run into the leftfield bleachers and the Marlins and Mets are tied at two. That puts some pressure on the Brewers, who still trail 1-0 in the seventh.

Two Royals errors in the third lead to another Minnesota runs. The Twins lead 2-0 in the fourth.

Joe Mauer is 0-2, his BA down to .328. Pedroia is 1 for 1 at .326.

After five scoreless innings, the Marlins score the first run of the game. John Baker, the rookie catcher, continues his great first impression with an RBI single. The Marlins lead 1-0 and have the bases loaded with one out. Oliver Perez is done.

Update: Joe Smith walks in a run, giving Willingham a free pass. New York goes down 2-0. The Brewers are behind 1-0 in the sixth. Both teams have just one hit.

Update: That's all the Marlins get. The Mets have four turns at bat to score two runs.

Denard Span doubles down the leftfield line to plate the first run of the Royals/Twins game and put runners on second and third with two out. That's only Denard's seventh extra-base hit of September.

Paul Konerko homers to tie the Indians at one. The White Sox offense keeps up the pressure, loading the bases with one out in the bottom of the second.

That's Paul's ninth home run of September, and his 22nd on the year. He's done a good job of trying to make up for the loss of power from the Quentin injury.

Update: Uribe hits a ball to Jamey Carroll at third base. It looks like an easy double play, but Carroll boots the ball and everyone is safe. The White Sox take a 2-1 lead.

Update: The error sets up an Orlando Cabrera sacrifice fly, and the White Sox lead 3-1.

Micah Hoffpauir reaches on an error by Prince Fielder, moving Aramis Ramirez to third. He scores on a grounder by Cedeno, and Chicago takes a 1-0 lead over the Brewers.

The first score in any of the big four games goes to Jhonny Peralta, who homers in the top of the second to give Cleveland a 1-0 lead over the White Sox. If Peralta can homer again in the game, he'll tie his career high of 24 home runs.

The White Sox lose 12-6, setting up for important games on Sunday. If the White Sox win in the afternoon, they play on Monday, regardless of the outcome of the Twins game. If the Twins win and the White Sox lose, then the division belongs to Minnesota. If the Mets and Brewers reach the same outcome, there's a playoff at Shea on Monday. It should be a lot of fun, especially with CC Sabathia single handedly trying to bring back the four man rotation.

The Royals continue their winning September ways with a 4-2 victory over the Twins. Despite issuing seven free passes (four by the bullpen), Gil Meche and the Royals relievers allowed just two runs, holding the Twins to 3 for 13 with runners in scoring position. It seems the sweep of Chicago took a lot out of the Twins.

The loss drops the Twins into a tie with the White Sox, but one game down in the AFLIC. If Chicago can pull off a victory against the Indians tonight, then the White Sox just need to win their last two games to earn a division title. Cleveland and Chicago are tied at one in the third.

Update: Asdrubal Cabrera hits a bases loaded double in the fifth to put the Indians up 4-1. After an intentional walk to Sizemore, Jamey Carroll doubles down the rightfield line to drive in two more and chase Javier Vazquez from the game. Choo adds a single against Clayton Richard and the Indians are still batting leading 7-1.

Update: The White Sox starters, in their last five games, allowed 26 runs, all earned in 25 innings. They've walked nine, which isn't horrible, but allowed 38 hits.

The Brewers fall 7-3 to the Cubs, dropping Milwaukee into a tie with the Mets for the NL Wild Card. If the teams manage the same result tomorrow, a playoff game takes place at Shea Stadium on Monday, which would be the last regular season game at the ballpark. So all those people who believe they hold tickets for the last regular season game at Shea may be wrong.

Brad Lidge teetered on the ledge, but induced Ryan Zimmerman to hit into a double play as the Phillies win the NL East. Brad allowed three hits and a walk, but nothing long as the Nationals could only turn those into one run. That was enough to earn the Phillies a 4-3 victory and an NL East championship for the second year in a row.

Congratulations to the Phillies. They blew a large lead over the Mets early in the season, but held on at the end to take first place. They will either play the Brewers or the Dodgers in the NLDS. They went 5-1 against Milwaukee, posting an ERA below three, but 4-4 against the Dodgers, sweeping them the last time the teams met in Philadelphia.

Ted Lilly is helping the Mets this afternoon as he just finished six no-hit innings. The Cubs lead the Brewers 4-0. Ted walked just one batter, and one reached via an error. This could be the second Cubs no-hitter at Miller Park this month, and only one of them would be against the Brewers!

Update: The Brewers picked up two hits and one run in the bottom of the seventh. The Cubs lead 4-1 in the top of the eighth.

Sunday's goodbye to Shea Stadium revolves around a meaningful game. Johan Santana pitches a shutout against the Marlins on just three days rest. He gives up a double in the ninth, sandwiched between too strikeouts. A scary fly ball to the warning track in right ended the game, and the Mets live to play another day. Milwaukee's magic number for the Wild Card remains at two. The Mets play at 1:10 tomorrow, with the Brewers starting an hour later.

Santana finished with three hits and three walks allowed. He struck out nine batters and finishes with a 2.53 ERA, the best in the National League. That performance will stick in the minds of Cy Young voters as they cast their ballots next week.

Both the White Sox and Twins lose, Chicago falling 11-8 to Cleveland and the Twins getting mashed 8-1 by the Royals. Danks pitched poorly, allowing seven and seven runs in four innings of work, including home runs by Francisco and Garko. Liriano pitched poorly as well. Not a good night for young aces.

The teams remain separated by 1/2 game, which is great if you want extra days of baseball. A 1/2 game separation means Chicago plays on Monday with a possible one-game playoff on Tuesday.

Rickie Weeks comes in as a defensive replacement for Ray Durham, then hits a three-run homer in the bottom of the seventh to put Milwaukee up 5-1. The Mets are down 6-1 in the bottom of the ninth.

Update: The Mets lose 6-1. The only run they scored was unearned. Chris Volstad goes six innings and lowers his ERA to 2.88. The Phillies magic number for the division is down to one, and the Mets are in danger of falling a game behind in the Wild Card race.

Update: Milwaukee wins 5-1 and the Mets are in a bit of a pickle. They need help to reach the playoffs.

The Tampa Bay Rays fail in their second attempt to clinch the AL East, falling to Detroit 6-4. Gary Sheffield hit two home runs, bringing his career total to 499. I wonder if he retires if he reaches 500? He'd be giving up a lot of money.

The Red Sox are losing to the Yankees 13-4 in the top of the fifth. The game is not official yet, so if they call it, all those runs get erased. If they can get through the bottom of the fifth, then there is a good chance Tampa Bay clinches anyway.

Corey Hart dumps a single into left with two outs, scoring Durham from second base. The Brewers take a 2-1 lead and makes the Mets a little more nervous. This isn't just a race for the wild card, both managers are fighting to keep their jobs next season.

The Phillies defeat the Nationals 8-4. The bullpen pitches another strong outing, allowing no runs, no walks and one hit while striking out five in three innings. That reduces the Phillies magic number to two. The Mets are losing 5-1 in the top of the eighth, so that could come down to one.

The Cubs started the first string against the Brewers tonight. Good for them.

Francisco Liriano comes out after 4 1/3 innings and a Billy Butler two-run homer. He struck out five and walked just one, but 11 of the 18 batters who put the ball in play wound up with hits. Liriano also threw two wild pitches. Once again, the Twins are down big, 6-0. Can they manage a comeback two nights in a row?

Meanwhile, Kyle Davies has struck out six without a walk through four innings. He's earning himself a place in the 2009 Royals rotation with his September performance.

The Phillies don't waste any time, jumping out to a 7-1 lead over the Nationals. Balester only lasts 1 2/3 innings, giving up a home run to Ryan Howard. It looked like no one would reach 50 homers this season, but Ryan is going to come real close. Ryan also hit a double and picked up four RBI, and Chase Utley knocked out a double and a single, knocking in the other three runs. The two have combined to drive in 250 runs this season.

James Crabtree writes:

Last night I heard Drayton McLane sit in for an inning on the Astros radio broadcast with Milo Hamilton. He spent much of the time talking about how great the wild card is and how it has created excitement in Houston this year. What he and Milo Hamilton failed to realize is that if NOT for the three divisions and the wild card Houston would be in first place in the old NL West (even if Arizona was added into it) with a tight race against the Dodgers in the last weekend of the season. It would be almost like 1980 again. As it stand now however Houston would have to pull off a miracle to see the post season. I honestly think McLane doesn't realize the Astros would be in first in the old NL West.

While this is true, MLB will never go back to eight team league or division again. Small divisions create a higher probability of different teams making the playoffs and the World Series every year. That's good for the growth of the game. So it strikes me that the creation of three division and the wild card outweighs the occasional lack of a playoff spot under the old system.

They were rocking in the Metrodome last night:

When the Twins tied the game in the eighth inning Thursday, it was louder in the Dome that it was for any of the playoff games I've covered there. People weren't just clapping, they were screaming their heads off and jumping like crazy.

When Denard Span's triple scored Carlos Gomez, we saw trash being thrown in the air. It was truly unbelievable. My adrenaline was pumping pretty good, and it was hard to remain focused.

Since the creation of the Wild Card, the possibility existed for a first place team to game the system to force a certain matchup in the first round of the playoffs. This rears its ugly head this weekend. The Cubs play the Brewers in the final series of the season, Milwaukee tied with the Mets for the NL Wild Card lead. If the Brewers win the WC, Chicago hosts the Los Angeles Dodgers (of Los Angeles) in the first round. If the Brewers finish behind the Mets and Phillies, the Cubs host one of those two teams in the NLDS.

Which would you rather face?

Team	Runs/Game	NL Rank
Cubs	5.35	1
Mets	4.99	2
Phillies	4.90	3
Dodgers	4.35	12

Since the Dodgers acquired Manny, they rank fifth in the NL in runs scored at 4.75, while the Cubs and Mets still rank 1-2. One can also argue that the Dodgers are the hottest team in baseball, going 18-6 since Aug. 30, 2008, the best record in the majors. That, however, was against the NL West and the Pittsburgh Pirates. This was the same team swept by the Phillies and the Nationals prior to the streak starting.

There are good reasons for the Cubs laying down this weekend, including a trip to warm and sunny LA rather than the cold and rainy northeast. Lou Piniella even gave himself some cover last night, starting the second string against the Mets. Even though it's not right, I believe it's in the best interest of the Cubs to help the Brewers into the playoffs, giving the Cubs the weakest first round opponent. We'll see if Lou is thinking the same thing by the lineups he puts on the field this weekend.

(My gut says Lou plays hard against the Brewers. He's too much of a competitor to slack off. Even his scrubs almost beat the Mets Thursday night.)

Update: Balls, Sticks and Stuff is upset Lou didn't play the first string Thursday night.

Bugs and Cranks writes on the Twins comeback Thursday night.

The weather situation in the northeast brought the NL East race to the Weather Channel this morning. For Philadelphia, there is a 50% chance of rain Friday and Sunday, and 60% on Saturday. In New York, it will be a soggy closing of Shea with a 60% chance of rain Friday and Sunday, and a 90% chance on Saturday.

The Mets and Phillies both play afternoon games on Saturday, so have a lot of time to wait for the rain to clear to see if they can play five innings.

Down 6-1 in the middle of the fourth, the Twins fight back to tie the White Sox at six and send the game into extra innings. Span and Mauer picked up three hits each and Gomez collected four, a homer short of the cycle (he has two triples in the game). The Minnesota bullpen has not allowed a run in relief of Kevin Slowey, who lasted just 3 2/3 innings. The White Sox were a bit more efficient in their scoring, picking up their six runs on just seven hits, while the Twins needed 14.

Update: Nick Punto walks, goes to second on a grounder, to third on a wild pitch, the Alexei Casilla singles off Bobby Jenks and the Twins win 7-6. They move into first place in the AL Central by 1/2 game, even with the White Sox in the loss column. They just need to play Chicago even over the next three games, then see if the White Sox can win the makeup on Monday.

Ryan Braun hits a grand slam in the bottom of the tenth and the Brewers walk off with a 5-1 win over the Pirates. That keeps them tied with the Mets and gives us a decent chance at a three-way tie come Monday morning. The Brewers celebrated like they just won the pennant.

Yovani Gallardo pitched four good innings in his return, walking two and striking out seven. He'd be an excellent long man out of the pen in the playoffs, should the Brewers earn a wild card berth.

Update: Just did a quick calculation, and based on each team having a 50% chance of winning each game (a simplifying assumption), the chance of a three-way tie is about 7.5%.

The Mets and Cubs are tied at six in the bottom of the ninth, the Brewers and Pirates are tied at one in the bottom of the eighth. These teams certainly like keeping fans on the edge of their seats.

Update: With Reyes on first after a leadoff single, Dan Murphy tries to bunt and fouls off strike three.

Update: Micah Hoffpauir picked up two home runs and five hits tonight, but Carlos Beltran nearly took his glove off as he lines a shot past the rookie first baseman, driving in the winning run. The Mets gain 1/2 game on the Phillies, going into the weekend one game out of the division lead.

It looks like the Dodgers won't need a win tonight. The Diamondbacks are down 10-3 to the Cardinals going to the bottom of the eighth. I'm sure the Los Angeles players are sitting around the clubhouse television enjoying their trip to the playoffs unfold before their eyes.

Update: The Diamondbacks fall 12-3, their run at the playoffs ending in a whimper. When they had a chance to hang with Los Angeles, they lose three in a row to St. Louis by a combined score of 23-9. After a lucky 2007 and a great start to 2008, they just couldn't maintain their offense. At the end, the bullpen went, and they could score enough runs to win. What a disappointing performance.

Congratulations to the Dodgers, NL West champs! They certainly look like the hot team going into the playoffs, and unlike the Phillies, Mets and Brewers, they get to rest and set up their rotation for the five game NLDS.

Scott Kazmir gave up six hits in five innings while walking two and striking out eight. That should be such a bad line, but four of the six hits left the ballpark. Scott gives up four solo home runs, giving him 23 allowed on the season. All four were solo shots; because he does allow a low OBA, 18 of his 23 home runs allowed came with no one on. Think Curt Schilling in 2001 without as many innings.

The Rays fall 7-5, but a Boston loss still gives them the division.

Sox Machine wants the White Sox to fight piranhas with piranhas:

Carlos Quentin's wrist injury wasn't supposed to mean this much. Granted, he would've been a shoo-in for MVP had he not overreacted to missing a Cliff Lee fastball, but with Dye and Jim Thome holding their own, Nick Swisher coming off an acceptable August and Paul Konerko beginning to come around, the biggest question was supposed to be the bullpen.

That's not the case, and the Sox's attack is a shell of what it was just a month and a half ago. It seems like much longer than that.

Nevertheless, I have a solution for tonight - but the Sox will have to act quickly. Ladies and gentlemen, two words:

Jason. Tyner.

That's pretty funny. The piranhas on the Twins actually can hit. That helps.

The Dodgers clinched a tie for the NL West as the Diamondback fell to the Cardinals 4-2 and the Dodgers defeated the Padres 12-4. The Boston connection was in full swing again as Manny Ramirez and Nomar Garciaparra both homered and drove in two runs. Three other Dodgers drove in two runs as the whole team let loose on San Diego's pitching.

I'm still a bit shocked at the fall of the Diamondbacks. This was a young team that should have improved. In April, it certainly looked like that happened. With the addition of Dan Haren, the offense didn't need to be great, just better. They scored 5.9 runs per game in April, but are finishing the season at 4.4 runs per game for the year. They kept drawing walks, but the hits stopped coming, and the power waned. Adam Dunn just wasn't enough to save the offense. Ned Colletti out-maneuvered Josh Byrnes.

The Twins win game two of their series with the White Sox, cutting Chicago's lead to 1/2 game in the AL Central. The final was 3-2, giving the Twins a 4-1 record in one and two run games in the head-to-head series this season.

The Minnesota bullpen did a great job in relief. Nick Blackburn lasted just five innings, giving up eight hits. The Twins relievers did not strike out a batter, but gave up just one hit and one walk as they kept Chicago off the board the rest of the way.

This makes tomorrow night's game a must win for both teams. If Chicago wins, they control their own destiny. If they lose, the makeup game Monday looms large in deciding the division.

Correction: It was Blackburn, not Baker.

CC Sabathia, pitching in short rest, pitches another great game against the Pirates. He allows four hits over seven innings while striking out 11. He's now 10-2 since joining the Brewers, giving the team more than their money's worth.

They gain a game on the Phillies, and may gain a game on the Mets if the Cubs win. That would put them in a tie for the wild card lead.

Tied at six, Dan Murphy of the Mets leads off the bottom of the ninth with a triple against the Cubs. Bobby Howry strikes out David Wright, intentionally walks Delgado and Beltran to load the bases, then gets Church to ground into a force at the plate. That brings Castro to the plate, and he goes down swinging to send the game to the tenth. The Mets had a runner at third with no outs in each of the last three innings, and only pushes across one run.

The Los Angeles Dodgers moved much closer to wrapping up the NL West Tuesday night with a 10-1 drubbing of the San Diego Padres. With 82 wins, the Dodgers are now guaranteed to finish over .500, preventing our seeing a sub-.500 playoff team. Coupled with the Arziona loss, the Dodgers magic number is down to three with five games to play.

Manny Ramirez hit a double and drove in two runs, giving him 30 extra-base hits and 51 RBI in 49 games with the Dodgers. That would put him on a pace for 99 extra-base hits over a 162 game season.

The Milwaukee Brewers score three runs over the last two innings and defeat Pittsburgh 7-5. Prince Fielder hit a walk-off two-run homer to end the game and keep Milwaukee one game behind the Mets. We can still get a three-way tie if the Brewers go 5-0, the Mets finish 4-1 and the Phillies split their four remaining games.

The Diamondbacks fall to the Cardinals 7-4. Randy Johnson pitches poorly striking out just one in six innings while allowing five runs. The Dodgers are up 6-1 in the third against the Padres.

The Phillies lose and the Mets win as the lead in the NL East is down to 1 1/2 games. Remember, the Mets hold the tie-breaker against the Phillies, so if the two teams finished tied and ahead of the other wild card contenders, then the Mets win the division and Philadelphia gets the Wild Card.

Kelly Johnson extended his hitting streak with two base knocks tonight and Casey Kotchman hit just his second homer since joining the Braves as Atlanta earns a 3-2 win. Cole Hamels pitched well, but the Phillies just couldn't put together a big rally against Mike Hampton.

Johan Santana pitched eight strong innngs, walking two and striking out 10 as the Mets beat the Cubs 6-2. Johan picks up his 15th win, his fifth straight year reaching that level. Pedro Feliciano gave the Mets fan a scare in the ninth, allowing two hits, but Ayala came on for the last two outs and the save.

The Brewers are losing to the Pirates 3-2 in the bottom of the seventh.

Update: Mike Cameron doubles in two in the bottom of the seventh and the Brewers take a 4-3 lead.

Update: The Pirates get the two runs back in the eighth. Steve Pearce homers for the lead.

Victor Martinez pops out to Alex Cora and the Red Sox win 5-4, sending them to the playoffs with a chance to defend their World Championship. Papelbon records four outs, striking out two to record his 41st save. There will be no drama when the Yankees come to Boston this weekend.

Congratulations to the Red Sox on another great season. They needed to overcome lengty injuries to Curt Schilling, Mike Lowell, J.D. Drew and David Ortiz. Matsuzaka and Beckett were unavailable for shorter periods of time. Of course, the whole Manny Ramirez situation served as a major distraction. Still, the team kept winning, thanks to the deep squad assembled by the Boston front office. At the moment, it looks like they'll be playing the Angels in the first round, which should be a great series.

The Twins scored two more runs so far in the bottom of the fourth. They use a triple, double, advance on a fly ball and a squeeze play that ends up as a base hit for the two runs. Minnesota takes a 4-1 lead on the White Sox in a must win game.

Punto just stole second. They need a walk, homer and hit by pitch.

Update: Carlos Gomez hits a traditional single that takes its time to fall, giving Punto plenty of time to score from second. The Twins are up 5-1, and the Metrodome is rocking.

The White Sox score first. Thome and Konerko single and a double play plates Jim. That prevents a big inning, but the Twins find themselves in a hole.

Update: Jason Kubel draws second blood as the Minnesota DH hits a two-run homer and the Twins lead 2-1.

The Diamondbacks gain ground the more traditional way, defeating the Cardinals while the Dodgers take the night off. That leaves them two games back with six to play. Stephen Drew cycled against the Cardinals earlier in the season, and tonight he picked up the single, double and triple. In four game against St. Louis this season, Drew collected eight extra base hits.

Webb picks up his 22nd win. That gives him 40 over the last two seasons. Arizona still needs some help, but they've finally stopped making it easy for the Dodgers.

I didn't think this was possible. The Brewers came into tonight's action 1 1/2 games behind the Mets in the NL Wild Card race, but two games down in the AFILC. The Mets lose to the Cubs 9-5, and low and behold the Brewers are one game back, and one game back in the AFILC. Some how, some way, they made up a loss. I'm boing to need to ponder this for a while.

I suppose they should send the Cubs a thank-you note, as should the Phillies. Philadelphia's magic number is down to four.

The Red Sox fail to clinch as Jed Lowrie strikes out with men on second and third in the bottom of the ninth. The Red Sox out hit the Indians 12-8 and out walked them 5-2. They even went 3 for 9 with runners in scoring position. The timing of their hits was just off, and the umpire carom cost them the game. The Rays magic number for the division drops to four, and the Yankees get to live another day, hoping it can last until they reach Boston.

Correction: Fixed magic number.

The Rays defeat the Orioles 4-2 to reduce their magic number for clinching the division to five. The middle infielders for Tampa did all the damage and Iwamura and Barlett picked up the only three hits in the game for the Rays and drove in three runs. Tampa did draw eight walks.

David Price pitched decently in his first start, allowing two runs, one earned in 5 1/3 innings. His most impressive stat of the night was throwing 60 of 88 pitches for strikes.

Correction: Fixed magic number.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

Jon Weisman reflects on the margin of victory.

Rich Aurilia comes through in the top of the 11th with the third single of the frame as the Giants prevent the Dodgers from lowering their magic number with a 1-0 victory. The Giants bullpen pitched five perfect innings in relief. The starter, Matt Cain, avoided Manny Ramirez by walking him three times. It seemed to work. The Dodgers lead is down to 2 1/2 games.

Correction: It was the Giants bullpen, not the Dodgers.

The Phillies down the Marlins 5-2, moving 1 1/2 games ahead of the Mets in the NL East and pretty much dashing the Marlins hopes of a playoff berth. The Phillies got off to a 3-0 lead, but Florida fought back to make it 3-2 after seven. Gregg Dobbs injured himself in that inning, so Pedro Feliz took over. Feliz then delivered a two-run homer in the eighth to cement the victory.

Jamie Moyer continued his mastery of the Marlins, giving up one run in six innings of work. He finishes his season against Florida with a 4-1 record and a 2.81 ERA.

The Mets hold the tie-breaker in the division, so the Phillies magic number is down to six.

The Twins and White Sox get well pitched games out of Liriano and Danks today as Minnesota downs Tampa Bay 4-1 and the White Sox shutout Kansas City 3-0. This sets up an AL Central showdown starting Tuesday in Minnesota. The White Sox send Vazquez, Buehrle and Floyd against Baker, Blackburn and Slowey. The Twins need a sweep. That could trigger Chicago playing four teams in four days. If the teams are separated by 1/2 game at the end of the regular season, then Chicago makes up a game against Detroit on Monday. If that game results in a Chicago/Minnesota tie, a one game playoff takes place on Tuesday. If Chicago wins that one, they may start the playoffs on Wednesday, all after having finished the season against Cleveland.

Scott Schoeneweis gives up a double and a check-swing single in the bottom of the eighth inning, allowing the Braves to tie the Mets at four. It's another blown save for the Mets bullpen. New York got off to a 4-0 lead early as Parr had nothing for the Braves, but Atlanta's bullpen has shut them down the rest of the way. The Braves are still batting as Joe Smith tries to stop the bleeding.

Update: Smith gives up an RBI triple to Jeff Francoeur (after a stolen base). The Braves lead 5-4.

Update: The Mets are giving hope to the Brewers. Milwaukee stomped the Reds 8-1 today. Fielder hit a home run and a double, driving in three, while the bullpen pitched 5 2/3 shutout innings in relief of Seth McClung. If the Braves hold on, the Brewers will move to 1 1/2 games behind the Mets.

Update: Martin Prado hits a bases double down the rightfield line and the Braves score two more. The former team from Milwaukee keeps helping the current team from Wisconsin.

Update: The Mets get out of the inning, but the Braves bullpen gets an easy to defend three-run lead in the ninth.

Update: Wright walks and Delgado blasts a home run to cut the Braves lead to 7-6. The Mets still have two outs to score one run.

Update: Mike Gonzalez strikes out Beltran and Easley as the Mets go down 7-6. The Brewers and Astros already won, so the we just need to wait for the Phillies/Marlins result to see how interesting this last week of play will be.

The Red Sox defeat the Toronto Blue Jays 3-0, knocking the Blue Jays out of the playoff picture and leaving the AL Central the only hope for the Twins. If the Yankees lose tonight, Boston goes to the post season.

The Red Sox won with their big three pitchers each performing up to snuff. Daisuke Matsuzaka allowed just two hits, and more importantly, just two walks over seven innings. Hideki Okajima pitched a perfect eighth and Papelbon allowed just a single in the ninth. Beckett and Lester are also capable of stellar seven inning performances, which makes the Red Sox a dangerous post-season team.

The White Sox fall to the Royals 5-2 as Kyle Davies pitches seven strong innings against Chicago. Davies allowed three hits and one walk. He tried pitching in the eighth, but gave up a walk and a Thome home run for the only Chicago runs in the game. Kila Ka'aihue hit his first major league home run as part of a three-home attack by the Royals. David DeJesus's was a long run as his homer was of the inside the park variety.

While I'm sure this won't console Yankees fans, given the poor play of the White Sox and Twins, it's possible that New York finishes with the fourth best record in the AL but doesn't make the playoffs.

Stephen Drew just hit a two-run homer off Brian Fuentes that just barely reached the seats in rightfield near the line. It's only the third home run Fuentes allowed this year, two of them coming this month. The long ball gives the DBacks a 5-3 lead. The Dodgers are losing 1-0 in the third, so there's a chance Arizona can cut the Dodgers' lead to 2 1/2 games.

Update: Chad Qualls gives up a walk and a hit, but holds on to keep the Rockies off the board and the Diamondbacks win 5-3. The Giants take a 2-0 lead in the top of third against the Dodgers, but Manny just hit a three-run homer to Los Angeles on top. The opposite field shot down the rightfield line was the 15th Manny hit with the Dodgers. The three RBI give him 47 in 47 games since moving to Los Angeles.

Brad Lidge picks up this 39th save without a failure and the Phillies defeat the Marlins 3-2. That moves them ahead of the Mets into first place in the NL East. New York, however, still holds a 2 1/2 game lead over the Brewers for the wild card. The Marlins win streak ends at nine, although it appears a bad call cost them a tie.

The Mets fall to Atlanta 4-2 as Jorge Campillo continues to work his magic against New York. He finishes his season against them with a 2-0 record, giving up six runs, five earned in 17 2/3 innings for a 2.55 ERA. The Brewers don't lose any ground on the Mets, and the Phillies are leading the Marlins 3-2 in the bottom of the eighth. The Marlins almost tied the game on an infielder grounder, but the runner was called out at the plate. While the Marlins broadcasters thought the runner was safe, I couldn't tell from any of the angles they showed.

Update: The Phillies get out of the bottom of the eighth without allowing a run. For the Marlins to win the game now, they may need to hang a blown save on Brad Lidge.

Update: Just watched a stop action replay and Cantu looked safe on the play at the plate. Of course, C.B. Bucknor was the umpire.

Down two runs in the ninth, Rickie Weeks homers to lead off the inning. The Brewers use two outs to load the bases, the Reds keeping the inning alive with a two out error, which was then followed by a Braun walk. That brought Prince Fielder to the plate, the tying run 90 feet away. Fielder struck out. Milwaukee goes down 4-3 and will need help from Atlanta and Florida tonight to stay close to the Mets and Phillies.

The Twins and Rays go to the top of the ninth with Tampa Bay leading 7-0. They are three outs away from clinching their first playoff berth.

Update: Percival is on to close out the game.

Update: Brendan Harris reaches on a ball in the shortstop hole. Bartlett throws wide for an error.

Update: Punto pops out to second. One down.

Update: Harris steals second on a 1-2 pitch in the dirt.

Update: Carlos Gomez takes three straight balls for a walk. Men on first and second, one out.

Update: Denard Span singles to drive in a run and takes second on a bad throw. It's 7-1 and Percival is coming out of the game.

Update: Trever Miller comes in and gets Casilla to ground out (allowing a run) and then Mauer pops out in foul territory to Evan Longoria, and the Rays are going to the playoffs. The final score, 7-2. The Rays extend their lead over the Red Sox to 2 1/2 games and with a week to go their magic number for the division stands at six. They just need a tie with Boston to win the AL East.

I have to say, there was plenty of cowbell today.

Update: One thing I like about the Rays this season was that they never panicked. They suffered through a long losing streak mid season, they struggled on the road at times, but they always came back. Even when Longoria and Crawford went down and thing looked bad, this group kept playing well.

Scott Kazmir pitched six shutout innings, but more importantly he walked just one. Whatever adjustment he made after his last start worked, as he seemed to regain his early season form. That turnaround raises the probability of the Rays going deep into the post season.

Congratulations to Tampa Bay on a great season. This wasn't a bad team getting lucky. This was a good team playing up to their potential.

The Chicago Cubs win the NL Central with a 5-4 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals. It wasn't a typical Cubs win. They only drew two walks and only collected six hits. The starting pitching wasn't that good as Ted Lilly allowed four runs over seven innings. They did pick up three doubles (they lead the league) to make the most of their opportunities, and the bullpen allowed just one walk in two innings of work.

The Cubs, in my opinion, are the best team in baseball this season. They hit for average, get on base and hit for power. That means, as shown today, the offense can generate runs in a variety of ways. The pitchers own the most strikeouts in the NL, helping them to the second lowest ERA in the league. They're a complete team, and in my mind the favorite going into the post season.

The Yankees take a 1-0 victory over Baltimore when Robinson Cano singles with the bases loaded and two out in the bottom of the ninth. Brian Burres allowed just three hits over seven innings, but without support he couldn't win. Alfredo Aceves reduced his ERA to 1.38 with six scoreless innings. He's now gone 26 innings for the Yankees allowing 20 hits and six walks.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox lost to Toronto 6-3. Roy Halladay won his game 19 as he out pitched Jon Lester. That leaves Boston's magic number at two. That means if the Yankees win tomorrow, they'll close Yankee Stadium without being eliminated from the post season.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

Friday was a good day for the massive tie scenario. The Marlins and Astros won, while the Phillies and Brewers lost. The following table show the records needed for a five-way tie with the most wins:

Team	Record
Mets	4-5
Phillies	4-4
Brewers	6-2
Astros	9-0
Marlins	9-0

The Brewers are going to need to turn it on if they are going to catch one of the NL East teams at this point. For today:

• Milwaukee defeats Cincinnati
• Houston defeats Pittsburgh
• Atlanta defeats New York
• Florida defeats Philadelphia

The magic number for both the Mets and Phillies to make the playoffs stands at seven.

Two teams claim playoff positions today with a win. With the Brewers loss last night, the Cubs magic number stands at one, so a win over the Cardinals today makes the Cubs NL Central champions.

The Rays clinched a tie for the Wild Card last night with their victory over the Twins. That combined with a Yankees win but Minnesota and New York into a tie for fifth place in the league. A win by the Rays today means the worst they can finish is in the Wild Card position.

The Red Sox can also clinch a playoff spot with some help. They'll need the Rays to win and the Yankees to lose in addition to a victory over Toronto. A win by the Red Sox, however, means the worst they can do is a tie for the Wild Card.

The Mets defeated the Braves to move back into first place in the NL East. The Reyes-Wright tandem knocked out five hits, scored four runs and drove in four runs. The bullpen pitched three solid innings, allowing an unearned run to tie the game as the Mets committed two errors in the seventh, but held Atlanta scoreless the rest of the way as New York scored four runs in the eighth for the 9-5 win.

Philadelphia lost a slugfest to the Marlins 14-8. Florida scored 10 runs of Brett Myers in 4+ innings of work. Jorge Cantu hit his 29th home run, putting him one short of the Marlins having four infielders with 30 homers each. The Marlins winning streak goes to nine games, and they are 4 1/2 games out of the wild card. (Houston wins 5-1 and remains tied with the Fish.) It was the 81st win for the Marlins, an impressive number given how the team lost two important players over the winter.

The Brewers also lose as the Reds hit seven home runs. Youngsters Votto and Bruce each hit two. It's the third time a team hit seven home runs in a game this season, all by the Reds. They also accomplished the feat on May 7th and July 10th. The Brewers fall 11-2, and it seems that Ned Yost could just have easily lost 3 out of 4.

The AL East and AL Central tightened a bit Thursday night. It actually looked like the opposite was going to happen. Mike Mussina got off to a rough start, allowing two hits, two walks and a run in the first inning. But that was it as he lasted six innings and the Yankees bats came to life for a 9-1 win. Bobby Abreu hit two home runs and Derek Jeter banged out two more hits. The two stars are finishing strong to bring their averages up to snuff for the season, and Mussina still has a shot at twenty wins.

While the White Sox were suffering a blow out, Evan Longoria found his home run stroke. He last went deep on August fifth, and made up for lost time with three home runs against the Twins. The Rays took an 8-6 lead into the ninth, but the wheels fell off as Dan Wheeler could not get an out. He gave up a two-run homer to Alexi Casilla which tied the game, and put two more Twins on who eventually came around to score. A five run ninth gave the Twins an 11-8 victory.

That brings leads in both the AL East and AL Central down to 1 1/2 games. Chicago travels to Minnesota next Tuesday for a three-game showdown.

Note: There was a trivia question in the Twins broadcast, and I believe the answer they gave was incorrect. The question, "What was the earliest a franchise won a major award (MVP, CY Young, Rookie of the Year)?" Their answer was Alfredo Griffin, but not only did they get the year wrong (1979, not 1978), Lou Piniella won ROY for the Royals in 1969, their first year of existence.

Even though the Cardinals won last night, I'm dropping them from the massive tie scenario. Albert Pujols hit home run #34 on the season, and Edinson Volquez walked six batters as he continues his second half slide. The Cardinals squeaked by the Reds 5-4.

The Marlins, however, remain viable. They tied the Astros in the standings last night. Houston's player remain shell shocked from hurricane Ike as they lose 8-1. They've been outscored 38-5 since resuming play Sunday. They now travel to Pittsburgh. Maybe they can get back on track against the Pirates.

The Mets and Phillies both won, both putting another game between them and the Brewers. Pat Burrell broke out of his slump with two hits and two RBI and Brad Lidge remained perfect in save opportunities, striking out two of the three batters he faced for his 38th save. The Phillies won by a final of 4-3.

The Mets won big as the winter trades proved useful. The X-Nats pounded the ball and Johan Santana pitched seven strong inning to bring the Mets a 7-2 victory.

The following scenario results in the teams each winning 90 games:

Team	Record
Phillies	4-5
Mets	5-5
Brewers	6-3
Astros	10-0
Marlins	10-0

I start disliking scenarios where a first place team needs to lose more than it wins. A three way tie between the Brewers, Mets and Phillies is a real possibility, however. For today:

• Houston defeats Pittsburgh
• Milwaukee defeats Cincinnati
• Florida defeats Philadelphia
• Atlanta defeats New York

I'm very interested to see if Florida can work its way back into the NL East race.

The Rays put an exclamation point on their championship season Wednesday night, mauling the Red Sox 10-3. Matt Garza didn't last long as he gave up two home runs to David Ortiz, but that was all the offense Boston could muster. The Rays bullpen pitched 4 1/3 innings of one-hit ball as the Rays claimed the tie-breaker in the AL East, putting them in a great position to win the division.

With 90 wins on the season, they've topped their previous high by 20 wins and the Baseball Prospectus prediction by two. They've out performed their Pythagorean projection by five games, but that's what great pitching can do for a team. With the second best ERA in the American League, they're more likely to win low scoring games. They're 28-17 in one-run games, the best record in the AL.

They do have some worries. Scott Kazmir started the season strong but regressed back to his inefficient ways as the season progressed. At this point I would be more confident with Shields and Garza starting. I'm definitely not crazy about using Troy Percival as the closer. He walks too many and gives up too many home runs, a dangerous combination for a late-inning pitcher.

The offense doesn't produce that many runs. Part of that, however, is poor performance with runners in scoring position. They hit .261/.339/.421 over all, but .241/.338/.384 with RISP. That may be bad luck or the nature of the team, number six batters hitting poorly this season.

I like this team going into October. This wasn't an easy 90 wins. They suffered through losing streaks and doubters, but came through nonetheless. They're going to be an exciting playoff team, and I can't wait to watch them in playoffs.

J.A. Happ steps up for the Phillies and pitches six shutout out innings as the Braves fall 6-1. Happ earns his first major league win and the Phillies remain in first place.

The Mets also win, although the bullpen did its best to give the game away. New York scores seven runs in the first four innings for a 7-1 lead. The pen is given an 8-2 lead to protect for four innings. The allow five runs. With protection like that, the Mets better build up very big leads. They win 9-7.

The White Sox fall to the Yankees 5-1. Johnny Damon and Alex Rodriguez both homer, and the Yankees bullpen pitches five scoreless innings, earning a win for Brian Bruney.

Phil Hughes pitched okay, but inefficiently. He gave up one run in four innings, but took 89 pitches to get through the White Sox. At least he brought his ERA down below 8.00.

The Twins and Indians are tied at four in the seventh. Minnesota has a golden opportunity to gain back a game in the AL Central race.

Just in time for the end of the season, a film about the Brewers, Diamondbacks and Mets.

While the Astros and Cardinals keep losing, making the massive tie scenario less likely, the Florida Marlins won six in a row to move back into a place where a run at the playoffs is a possibility. Unlike the other five teams on this list, the Marlins play both the Mets and the Phillies, giving them a chance to control their own destiny. The following records result in a six way tie for the NL East and the NL Wild Card:

Team	Record
Phillies	6-5
Mets	7-5
Brewers	7-4
Astros	10-2
Cardinals	12-0
Marlins	12-0

Florida outscored their opponents 36-22 over these last six games. They're now playing as I thought they would from August on, after they fixed their starting rotation with healed pitchers. The offense didn't perform, however. It may be too little too late for the Marlins, but they host Philadelphia this weekend, then close Shea Stadium the last weekend of the season.

While a six-way tie is a real long shot, the Phillies, Mets and Brewers playing to a three-way tie looks pretty good. We'll see how much the Marlins help pull two of these teams back to the pack.

The Twins never say die as they comeback from an 8-1 deficit to take a 9-8 lead over the Indians. Span and Mauer draw the walks, and Morneau hits the game tying double. Young then gets the sacrifice fly for the ninth run and the lead.

The Twins need to hold onto the lead as the White Sox defeated the Yankees 6-2. Gavin Floyd showed great control, walking none in seven innings of work. He's getting close to one walk every three innings. Andy Pettitte continues to struggle in the Bronx, giving up four runs in six innings of work.

Update: The Indians tie the game on a Grady Sizemore home run in the bottom of the eighth.

Ryan Howard just hit a two run homer in the top of the eighth to bring the Phillies back from a 7-4 deficit to take an 8-7 lead over Atlanta. The Mets, Astros and Cardinals all lost tonight, and Milwaukee is down 3-2 in the seventh. If they can maintain the lead, they'll take over first place in the NL East and possibly move ahead of Milwaukee in the wild card race.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

The AL Central remained the same as both the White Sox and Twins lose. Phil Coke had a smile as he won his first major league game in relief of Alfredo Aceves. Alf now holds a 1.80 ERA in two starts after giving up two runs in six innings. Coke has yet to allow a run in his first six appearances. The White Sox bullpen has another bad outing, giving up two runs in two innings.

The Twins fall to the Indians 3-1. Minnesota's game plan did not work against Scott Lewis as he allowed just three hits and two walks over six shutout innings. Mauer homered for the only Minnesota run. Both teams are limping to the finish line, going 5-5 over their last 10 games.

The Cardinals continue to make the five way tie less likely. If they don't start winning soon, they'll get dropped and we'll concentrate on the four-way tie. The most wins for a five way tie at this point is 91.

Team	Record
Mets	8-6
Brewers	8-4
Phillies	8-4
Astros	11-3
Cardinals	13-0

Here's what I'd like to see happen tomorrow:

• The Astros defeat the Cubs
• The Nationals defeat the Mets

Brett Myers pitches a complete game as the Phillies down the Brewers 6-1 in the night cap. Philadelphia moves into a tie with Milwaukee for the NL Wild Card lead. It's the sixth time this season the Brewers were swept in a series of three games or more. The Phillies are also a game behind the Mets for the NL East title. A three way tie among those teams would be fun.

The Phillies lead the Brewers 6-0 in the fifth inning. Burrell is having a good day after being in a slump. He followed up a two hit game in the afternoon with a home run tonight.

The Red Sox defeat the Jays 4-3 and the Yankees down the Rays 8-4 to set up a showdown in Tampa Bay starting Monday. Three good pitching matchups are on tap as Kazmir, Sonnanstine and Garza take on Matsuzaka, Beckett and Wakefield.

The Red Sox haven't won in Tampa this season. If the Rays can take two games, they win the season series and only need a tie with Boston to win the division and home field in the first round. Given the home record of both teams, this will be a hard fought series.

With Minnesota losing big to Baltimore today, the Wild Card is almost certain to come from the east. Whoever wins the division gets the Central champ, while the loser gets the Angels, the best road team in league.

The Cardinals aren't helping the five way tie at all. Their loss to the Pirates yesterday reduces the most wins for a five way tie to 92. I'm not ready to drop them yet, but I'm getting close.

Team	Record
Brewers	9-5
Mets	9-6
Phillies	11-3
Astros	12-3
Cardinals	14-0

After the Brewers-Phillies double header today, none of these teams play head-to-head.

For today, here's what I'd like to see happen:

• St. Louis defeats Pittsburgh
• Philadelphia takes two from Milwaukee
• Atlanta defeats the Mets
• Houston defeats the Cubs

The Cubs and Astros play in Milwaukee today and tomorrow due to the results of hurricane Ike.

The Dodgers can't be stopped, and the Rockies couldn't even contain them tonight. Clayton Kershaw gives up one run over six innings and Russell Martin drives in two from the leadoff spot as the Dodgers take the game 5-1. They've now outscored their opponents 77-29 over their 12-1 run.

Both games of the Detroit-Chicago double header fell to rain, and the Twins are taking advantage of the idle White Sox. They won the first game of their double header against Baltimore 12-2 as Daniel Cabrera continues to lose control. He walked five in 5 1/3 innings while striking out just one. That gives Cabera 90 walks and 95 K on the year, a ratio that won't keep him in the big leagues very long.

Denard Span hit two home runs out of the leadoff slot and drove in four, while Justin Morneau collected four hits, two doubles and two RBI as there's some talk about him for MVP.

In the night cap, the Twins are off to a 6-0 lead in the first. The sent nine men to the plate in the inning. Seven reached base and six scored. If Minnesota can make the early lead hold up, they will be tied in the games back column with Chicago, but one game down in the AFILC.

The Rays defeated the Yankees 7-1 in game one of their double header this afternoon. Mike Mussina walked two and struck out seven in five innings, but that didn't translate into a good outing as the Rays scored five runs in that time. Longoria returned to the lineup and went two for five with two RBI.

It will be very tough for Mussina to get to 20 wins with just three starts left. Even if the Yankees tried to pitch him on three days rest, there's just not enough of the schedule left to get him four more starts. He can't afford another game like this.

The Rays lead the Red Sox by three games pending the outcome of the two night-caps. The Red Sox are down 5-2 in the fifth, while the Rays lead 4-1 in the fourth on a grand slam by Ben Zobrist.

Games are falling the right way so far today for the Massive Tie Scenario to take hold. The Phillies put the hammer down on Manny Parra, scoring five runs in just 1 1/3 innings off the Brewers starter. Of the 13 batters he faced, ten reached by a hit or a walk, while three of his four outs came on the strikeout. Hamels pitched a solid 6 1/3 innings for his 13th win as the Phillies cut the NL Wild Card lead to two with a 7-3 victory.

The Mets lost when Johan Santana, who shutout the Braves for seven innings, couldn't get an out in the eighth. He gave up two singles, then the bullpen did the rest as Scott Schoeneweis and Brian Stokes combined to allow both Santana's runners to score and a third to give the Braves a 3-2 win. That reduces the Mets lead in the NL East to two pending the outcome of the Mets nightcap.

So far this evening, the Cardinals are up 4-2 on the Pirates in the fourth while the Mets lead the Braves 4-0 in the third.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

The Cardinals didn't help the Massive Tie Scenario as they lost to the Pirates 10-2. Nate McLouth missed the cycle by a single, a tough way to fall short on the feat. Nyjer Morgan and Luis Cruz did a good job setting the table for Nate as he drove in half the Pirates runs. The loss reduces the most wins for a five way tie to 93.

Team	Record
Brewers	10-5
Mets	11-6
Phillies	13-2
Astros	13-2
Cardinals	15-0

Again, with only Philadelphia and Milwaukee playing head to head, there's plenty of room for variation here. The closer to .500 the Mets and Brewers play, the more the odds of a massive tie improve.

For today, here's what I'd like to see happen:

• St. Louis defeats Pittsburgh
• Philadelphia defeats Milwaukee
• Atlanta takes at least one from the Mets

The Cubs stayed in Texas, so with Ike still raging, there's no chance of playing the series at a neutral site. Sunday is not looking good for a makeup either, so it's possible all three game may be played after the scheduled end of the regular season.

The results of the coin flips are here. I'm surprised they didn't have Boston and Chicago flip for a wild card playoffs.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

With the Cubs winning two games from the Cardinals over the last two days, the six-way tie stands at too much of a long shot to keep considering. The following table shows what's needed for a five way with the highest number of wins.

Team	Record
Brewers	11-4
Mets	12-5
Phillies	14-1
Astros	14-1
Cardinals	16-0

Again, with only Philadelphia and Milwaukee playing head to head, there's plenty of room for variation here. The closer to .500 the Mets and Brewers play, the more the odds of a massive tie improve.

For today, here's what I'd like to see happen:

• St. Louis defeats Pittsburgh
• Philadelphia defeats Milwaukee
• Atlanta defeats the Mets

The Cubs and Astros are Iked out, so I'd just like to see the people of the Houston area stay safe.

The Phillies defeat the Brewers 6-3 behind a nice start by Moyer and a fine performance by the bullpen. That puts them three games behind the Mets for the division and three behind the Brewers for the NL Wild Card. The Wild Card will be a bit easier for them to achieve, since they are down three games in the loss column to the Brewers, but four games to the Mets.

Ryan Howard hit home run number 43. That gives him six HR and 15 RBI in ten September games.

The coin flip for home field in case of a tie takes place tomorrow. The Brewers want fans to vote heads or tails. Of course, fans of the other teams can log in and vote for the opposite of what they think is the right choice for the Brewers. :-)

I suppose if the vote is tied, Melvin can just flip a coin!

Murray Chass starts his latest post with this sentence:

By now, you should realize that the Red Sox are going to win the American League East title and finish in first place for a second successive season for the first time since 1916.

The Tampa Bay Rays have waged a scrappy, valiant fight for first, occupying the top spot since June 28 except for five days around the All-Star break and only one day when they played a game. It would be nice to have them rewarded for a surprising, stupendous season, but even after beating the Red Sox twice this week they seem to be ready to have Boston overtake them.

So now we know, it was Murray playing the Black Knight.

"It's just a flesh wound."

Despite out-homering the Mariners 4-0, the Rangers fall to Seattle 8-7. That makes the Angels the first team officially into the playoffs. They now get 20 days to rest, heal, and try to stay in first place for home field throughout the playoffs.

Congratulations to the Angels on thier AL West Championship!

Francisco Rodriguez puts runners at first and third with two out, but strikes out Hideki Matsui to seal a 4-2 victory for the Angels. That clinches a tie for the AL West, and if Seattle wins over Texas, the Angels clinch the division outright. (Seattle and Texas are tied at six in the sixth.)

K-Rod also picks up his 56th save of the season, leaving him one short of the record. Unless the Angels shut him down after he reaches 58, he do to Thigpen's record what McGwire did to Maris's; leave it in the dust.

Congratulations to the Angels on another fine season!

The NL West keeps slipping away from the Arizona Diamondbacks:

It was close to 9:30 on Tuesday night when, in San Diego, Manny Ramirez hit a deep drive to the warning track in center field, a sacrifice fly that brought home the go-ahead run for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Five hundred miles to the north and about 30 minutes later, after dramatics by Chris Snyder tied the score at AT&T Park, the San Francisco Giants rallied in the bottom of the ninth for a walk-off, 5-4 win over the Diamondbacks.

Andre Ethier continued his hot hitting, going two for four with four RBI. He's driven in 11 runs in the last five games and Manny hit his 12th home runs since joining LA.

In San Francisco, the Chrises, Snyder and Young, combined for five hits and all four Arizona runs scored. The team as a whole, however, could not get to Barry Zito who worked six strong innings, striking out nine and only allowing two runs.

Jon Rauch takes the loss as he faces two batters and allows both to reach, setting up the winning run. In a trade that hurt the Diamondbacks, Rauch is now 0-5 with a 6.41 ERA, allowing five home runs in 19 2/3 innings. Bob Melvin picked a bad time to stop sniffing glue.

Talk about playing hurt. Brandon Phillips singled home the winning run in the 11th inning to defeat the Milwaukee Brewers moments after breaking a finger on a bunt attempt. Phillips season is over, but his hit allowed the Astros and Cardinals to gain on the Brewers in the wild card race. Lance Berkman missed the cycle by a triple and Randy Wolf ran his Houston record to 4-1 as the Astros beat the Pirates 9-3.

The Phillips single also brings back the Massive Tie Scenario. It looked for a while that there wasn't much of a chance for a three-way tie, but now a four-way is looking more likely and a five-way tie is also a possibility. The following records result in a five-way tie with the highest winning percentage among the competitors, each with 95 wins:

Team	Record
Mets	14-4
Brewers	13-4
Phillies	16-1
Cardinals	17-1
Astros	17-0

The only teams who play head-to-head are Milwaukee and Philadelphia, starting Thursday. For the above to happen, the Phillies need to take three out of four, but there's a lot of leeway here. The above five-way tie would result in a one-game playoff for the NL East, then a four team playoff for the wild card.

The six-way tie also lurks in the background. All the Cubs games down the stretch involve teams in the above table. That reduces the number of scenarios available, but this is possible:

Team	Record
Cubs	6-12
Mets	11-7
Brewers	10-7
Phillies	13-4
Cardinals	14-4
Astros	14-3

I have the Astros taking three from the Cubs, the Cardinals five from the Cubs, and the Brewers going 4-2 against Chicago and 1-3 against Philadelphia. The Cubs then sweep four from the Mets. Again, it's not the only possibility for a six-way tie, but it does result in the highest winning percentage, each team winning 92 games.

The six-way tie results in a one-game playoff for the NL East, and a two day playoff for the NL Central title. That would be followed by a two day playoff for the NL Wild Card. It's an extra week of bonus baseball!

It's time for me to start rooting based on the chance of the season ending pileup, here's what I'd like to see today:

• The Cardinals defeat the Cubs.
• The Brewers defeat the Reds.
• The Phillies defeat the Marlins.
• The Mets defeat the Nationals.
• The Astros defeat the Pirates.

The Cardinals/Cubs outcome is the most important one for the six-way tie scenario.

The Mets get back the game they lost to the Phillies over the weekend with a tough 10-8 win over the Nationals. The game went back and forth, but back-to-back home runs by Beltran and Delgado in the sixth sealed the win for the Mets.

Carlos Delgado hit two home runs in the game, bringing his season total to 35. With three RBI tonight, he's one short of his pre-break total of 52 in 45 fewer games.

The Toronto Blue Jays complete the double header sweep of the White Sox with an 8-2 win in the night cap. Six Blue Jays collected mult-hit games and Litsch pitched seven strong innings. With the Red Sox loss, the Jays are now seven games out of the wild card with seven games left with Boston, starting Friday at Fenway.

Meanwhile, Minnesota downed Kansas City 7-2, meaning the Twins gain 1 1/2 games on the White Sox. They're now just one game out of first place in the AL Central. Mauer and Morneau drove in two runs each, Morneau with his 23rd home run and Mauer without the aid of a hit. Span continues to impress from the leadoff spot, reaching base three times and scoring twice.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

The Red Sox shutout the Rays 3-0 behind the Jons, Lester and Papelbon. Lester lasts 7 2/3 innings, lowering his ERA against the Rays this season to 0.90. Papelbon gets four outs for his 36th save of the season, striking out three of the five batters he faced.

The Rays offense disappears for the second day in a row. They've now gone 18 innings without scoring a run. For the second day in a row, they get a good game from their starter, today Edwin Jackson. They need to get Longoria back in the lineup. They also lost Upton to a strained left quad.

The two teams are now tied with 85 wins, but the Red Sox trail in the loss column by one. The Rays need a split of the next two games to remain in first place. However, they are now 0-7 at Fenway this season.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

For the second day in a row, the Dodgers score seven runs as they down the Diamondbacks 7-2. While Ethier starred Friday night, Manny Ramirez showed why the Dodgers traded for him as he homered and doubled, driving in five of the team's runs.

Chad Billingsley continued his great pitching down the stretch, shutting out Arizona for 6 1/3 innings, striking out nine. He lowers his ERA to 3.02. Maybe some of us should start taking a look at him as a Cy Young candidate.

Webb gives up all seven runs for his third poor start in a row. With Webb, Haren and Johnson in trouble, Zambrano and Harden not particularly healthy, and Ben Sheets iffy, could the Dodgers and the Mets be the teams that emerge with the the best pitching in the NL playoffs? Fox would love to see a Mets/Dodgers LCS, and Manny against the Red Sox would bring a lot of eyeballs to the World Series.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

The Twins arrived home after a long road trip and had both the hitting and pitching working, something that only happened twice in the previous two weeks. Francisco Liriano lasted seven innings for the second time this year, striking out six and walking none. Justin Morneau hit a grand slam while Young and Buscher each drove in two, and the Twins defeat Detroit 10-2. They keep pace with Chicago and Boston, although 5 1/2 games out of the wild card it appears their best bet for the playoffs rests in the division.

Mike Schmidt sent the Phillies an email before the game telling them:

In a pep talk via e-mail, Mike Schmidt reminded the Philadelphia Phillies of their big comeback to win the NL East last season and said "the Mets know you're better than they are."

It worked tonight as the Phillies defeated the Mets 3-0. Myers pitced a brilliant game, stopping the Mets for eight innings while striking out 10. Pelfrey gave up an unearned run early, but his big mistake was a two-run homer to Greg Dobbs in the seventh, just over the glove of Ryan Church. Lidge put the first two batters on in the ninth, but worked out of the jam for his 34th save in 34 opportunities. Myers is now holding a 1.55 ERA since his return from the minors, and the Mets lead is down to two games.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

The Brewers lost their fourth game in a row, falling to the Padres 5-2. Every starter in the Milwaukee lineup collected exactly one hit, but they could not string them together. This against a pitcher, Shawn Estes who spent three months recuperating from a broken thumb and a team one loss away from the worst record in the NL.

Over the next six games, the Brewers play weak opponents. They have three more against the Padres and three against the Reds, all at home. Milwaukee needs to clean up over these six as they then begin a ten game road trip with four at Philadelphia and three at Chicago.

One thing working in the Brewers favor is that they are one of the few good teams on the road this season. Their 39-32 record is best in the NL and only the Angels are better away from home. The other favorable aspect of the schedule is they are through with the Astros. Houston is playing much better, but needs to depend on other teams to take out the Brewers.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

Two Ryan Howard home runs could not trump three Cristian Guzman hits as the Washington shortstop continued his hot hitting. The Phillies fall 9-7 and slip three games behind the Mets. Washington has now won 8 of their last 9 games, while the Phillies are 3-5 in their last eight.

The NL West race involves two teams separated by 1 1/2 games entering Wednesday. Here's how the two teams stand in terms of major statistics:

2008 (NL Ranks)	Diamondbacks	Dodgers
Runs per Game	4.59 (9th)	4.16 (13th)
OBA	.326 (9th)	.327 (8th)
Slug.	.415 (9th)	.393 (13th)
ERA	4.02 (6th)	3.76 (1st)
Staters ERA	4.00 (4th)	4.02 (5th)
Relief ERA	4.10 (9th)	3.29 (2nd)

Both teams clearly depend on their pitching. With a superior bullpen, the Dodgers are able to hide weaknesses in the starting rotation. However, they've used the bullpen about 50 innings more than the Diamondbacks, so we'll see if the Los Angeles relievers hold up as well down the stretch. They are struggling a bit more lately. For the season, opponents have a .310 OBA and a .366 slugging percentage against the pen. Since 8/1, those numbers are .331/.410.

So far, Manny Ramirez is winning the best trade contest. Both have OBA's around .500 (.488 for Adam Dunn, .500 for Ramirez), but Manny is winning the power battle by .250 points of slugging percentage. Despite that, the Dodgers are 15-16 since August first, the DBacks 14-16.

My feeling is that the difference in scoring is more a product of the two home parks, and that these teams are actually very even offensively. That leave the race down to the front line starting pitching of the DBacks versus the fading pen of the Dodgers. Given that the Arizona starters appear to be fading more than the Dodgers bullpen, I have to give the nod to Los Angeles to sneak by with the division title.

Of course, Colorado still lurks in the background. Could they pull off two miracles in a row? That's unlikely, but it will be fun to watch them try.

The White Sox defeat the Indians to put Cleveland 10 1/2 games back in the division race. With Chicago's magic number over the Indians at 14, I find it tough to believe that the White Sox won't win 7 more and Cleveland won't lose seven more with about 24 to play. It was a long shot, but as long as Cleveland was gaining, you had to give them the benefit of the doubt.

The NL West standings contracted a bit Tuesday night as the Diamondbacks lost and the Dodgers and Rockies won. Five games now separate the top three teams with Arizona just two games over .500.

The Cardinals scored eight runs on just seven hits, but with seven walks appearing to clog the bases, five extra-base hits helped clear them. Adam Wainwright allowed just one run in 5 1/3 innings as he works back from his injury, and St. Louis went on to an 8-2 victory. The Cardinals hit seven home runs in two games in Arizona. That's their best performance in terms of HR per game against any team this season.

The Rockies got to Tim Lincecum in Coors, scoring five runs in the fourth inning. The Giants tied the game in the sixth, and the teams traded zeros until the 12th when Ryan Spilborghs singled home Omar Quintanilla with the winning run. Jason Grilli pitched three strong innings for the win, striking out four. His ERA since joining the Rockies stands at 2.98. He has struck out 54 batters in 52 2/3 innings while allowing just one home run.

The Dodgers certainly are streaky lately. They've now won four in a row after an eight-game losing streak, outscoring their opponents 27-9. Andre Ethier missed the cycle by a double and Manny Ramirez hit his 10th home run for Los Angeles as the Dodgers downed the Padres 8-4. The two players combined to drive in four and score five of the eight runs. The Dodgers are now just 1 1/2 games out of first place.

The AL Central is the tightest of the division races, with the Twins and White Sox sporting identical 77-60 records. Here's how the two teams stand in terms of major statistics:

2008 (AL Ranks)	Twins	White Sox
Runs per Game	5.09 (3rd)	5.06 (4th)
OBA	.339 (6th)	.337 (8th)
Slug.	.411 (9th)	.456 (2nd)
ERA	4.12 (7th)	3.92 (5th)
Staters ERA	4.22 (8th)	4.07 (7th)
Relief ERA	3.91 (7th)	3.59 (5th)

They are nearly tied in runs per game despite the White Sox appearing to own the better offense. While the Twins put more people on base, the White Sox power is near the top of the league. The Twins made up for the lack of power with timely hitting. They are batting .313 with runners in scoring position versus .282 for Chicago. Minnesota ranks first in the AL in that category while the White Sox rank 4th. Given that I don't believe batting with RISP is really a skill, it seems the White Sox offense is more likely to hold up down the stretch. Also, the Twins are about 0.3 runs per game over what runs created predicts, while the White Sox are spot on.

The Twins starters' ERA for the season doesn't reflect the current reality of the team. Since Livan Hernandez left, Minnesota starters are 15-4 with a 3.18 ERA in 30 games. Because they average just over six innings per start, however, they are putting some pressure on the bullpen. Their ERA over the period is 4.20.

The White Sox look solid right now 1-3 with Danks, Floyd and Vazquez. Buehrle, however, is inconsistent with two great outings and two horrible ones in August. They also haven't found reliable fifth starter, although the job has fallen to Clayton Richard. Right now, the Twins get the nod for the superior pitching.

It strikes me that if the Twins starters can pitch this well for the month of September, the offense scores enough (even falling back to their runs created prediction) that the Twins should win more games than the Sox. The two teams face off in the penultimate series of the season. The White Sox also appear to have the tougher schedule as they play the Angels and the Yankees, while the Twins just get the Rays. It seems to me the Twins should squeak by with a division title here.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

The Astros completed a sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals, winning 3-0 Sunday afternoon. With the Brewers sweeping the Pirates, St. Louis finds itself 6 1/2 games out in the wild card race, and now also trails the Phillies. The Cardinals are also seven games down in the loss column. Milwaukee's magic number to eliminate the Cardinals from playoff competition is 20.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My lastest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

The Diamondbacks and Dodgers both lost today, Greg Maddux falling to Washington 5-4 this evening. Even more amazing, Livan Hernandez is out pitching Tim Lincecum through six. Dave Roberts just tripled with one out, and tried to score on a fly ball to shallow center. Willy Taveras nailed him at the plate with a perfect throw. The Rockies maintain a slim 1-0 lead.

For the second day in a row, the Mets and Phillies are tied late. Carlos Degado just hit his second home run of the game, an opposite field shot down the leftfield line to tie the score at 3 in the top of the eighth. Last night's contest was one of the most exciting games I watched all year, and this one is shaping up to try to match it.

Update: After an infield single by Beltran, Charlie Manuel brings Lidge into the game, and he allows three runs to score. A Murphy double plates one, and a Schneider bloop down the leftfield line brings in the other two. The Mets give their bullpen a three run lead to hold.

Update: The Mets bullpen pitches a perfect 8th and 9th and take back first place in the NL East.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

The Colorado Rockies defeated the Giants Tuesday night 7-2. Coupled with a bad outing by Brandon Webb leading to a 9-2 San Diego win over Arizona, the Rockies find themselves six games out of first place. With nine wins in their last eleven games, including two out of three from the Dodgers, the Rockies gained three game on Arizona and six on Los Angeles. Playing mostly on the road, they've allowed just 41 runs over that time.

Can they continue? The remaining schedule is good. Sixteen of their remaining 28 games are against teams with losing records, and three come against Houston, a .500 team. The have three games with the Dodgers and six with the Diamondbacks, just enough to catch both without help from other teams. Last season the big push didn't happen until Sept.16. They allowed 51 runs in their last 15 games to win the wild card. This season, a miracle in the mountains needs to take them to the division title.

The Rockies went 17-10 with great hitting in July. They've gone 14-10 with good pitching in August. If they can get both in September, they may turn the NL West into a three-team race.

The Milwaukee Brewers put the Cardinals playoff hopes in jeopardy tonight, blowing out St. Louis 12-0. Hardy, Braun and Fielder combined for eight hits, five runs and four RBI. Ben Sheets stops a personal two-game losing streak with six shutout innings. The Cardinals did work him, however, as he needed 100 pitches to get through six. The Brewers now lead the Cardinals by 4 1/2 games in the Wild Card race, five in the AFILC.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

Luis Ayala pitched 1 1/3 scoreless innings for the win as the Mets come back from a 4-3 deficit to defeat the Braves in the bottom of the ninth when Carlos Delgado singles in David Wright.

Ayala came to the Mets from Washington, who picked up Anderson Hernandez in the deal. The second baseman drove in a run tonight to cut the Phillies lead to 3-2, and Washington went on to win the game 4-3 with two runs in the eighth. That drops the Phillies 2 1/2 games behind the Mets. The trade helps them in Philadelphia and New York at the same time!

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

The White Sox once again pound the ball, defeating the Mariners 13-5. For the second game in a row they hit four home runs, the ninth time this season they've reached that level. Carlos Quentin extends his major league lead with his 35th homer of the season.

The win puts the White Sox in first place as the Twins fall to the Athletics 3-2. They did manage to score a run off Brad Ziegler, who still earns his third save with two innings of work. So far, he hasn't been the traditional closer, with two of his three saves lasting two innings. Will he redefine the closer role as the eighth and the ninth?

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

The Twins and White Sox both score big today as they remain tied for the AL Central lead. Minnesota took an 8-0 lead into the sixth, but three Seattle home in the seventh runs brought them back to an 11-8 loss.

The White Sox hit four home runs, the eighth time this year they've hit at least that many in a game. That leads the majors. Nine of their 13 runs score on the homers, giving more than enough support to Javier Vazquez. He walks none and strikes out eight to even his record at 10-10.

Both teams gain on the Red Sox and now sit just 1/2 game out of the wild card. The three teams are even in the AFILC. This season could easily end with three new teams in the AL playoffs compared to 2007.

The Cleveland Indians take two out of three from the LAnaheim Angels with a 4-3 victory this afternoon. All three game were decided by one run with Cleveland out scoring the Angels 10-9.

The loss puts the Rays just two games behind the Angels for home field advantage throughout the playoffs. It probably means more to the Rays to earn home field, since the Angels have an excellent 39-23 record on the road. Of course, if they face the Rays in the playoffs, getting them out of Tampa Bay is a very good idea.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

Cardinals Diaspora appears to be conceding the NL Central and NL Wild Card to the Cubs and the Brewers:

Let's talk turkey here: MLB's worst bullpen might be starting to shore up- but the damage has been done. If we had back 1/3 of the blown saves these dog meat arms gave up, the Cardinals would be neck and neck with the Cubs. But since they don't intend on giving any ground back; we're moving through August with the frustration of a team that will spend the off-season wondering 'what could have been'. Frankly, I hate it. If you're writing the script for 2008 you want the scrappy Cards to make it to the playoffs. Yet with 45 days remaining before playoff game 1 the NL Central big boys aren't leaving any room for error.

It's a scary thought that winning 3 out of 4 on the road from a divisional contender looses you ground.

Both the Brewers and Cubs went out and acquired top line talent for the stretch drive, and both pitched well yesterday. The Cardinals failed to counter those moves, and they're now seeing their playoffs hope fade away.

Nomar Garciaparra homered in the bottom of the ninth to cap a Dodgers comeback as they defeat Philadelphia 7-6. Brad Penny pitched poorly, staking the Phillies to a 6-1 lead after two innings. Los Angeles fought back, however, as Manny Ramirez cut the lead in half with a two-run shot in the third inning, and Jeff Kent tied the game with a two out, two run double in the eighth. It was a good night for the veteran hitters.

Combined with the Diamondbacks 6-5 loss to Colorado and the Mets 12-0 win over Washington, the NL East and the NL West are both tied. With the Cubs and Brewers continuing to cruise toward playoff spots, this is where all the action lies in the National League.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

The AL East race stretched from Boston to Oakland Tuesday night. With Boston winning a wild game, the Rays needed a win to maintain their lead. They managed five hits and four walks off Oakland starter Gio Gonzalez in five innings, but managed just one run. Scott Kazmir only allowed two hits, but one of those was a two-run homer by Bobby Crosby, and Oakland takes the game 2-1. Tampa's lead drops to three games. Brad Ziegler pitched a scoreless inning for his second save and now stands at 38 scoreless innings since reaching the majors.

The White Sox won their game quickly, but the Yankees and Twins took twelve innings to complete a 9-6 Yankees win. Alex Rodriguez was 0 for 5 when he came up in the twelfth with the score tied at six. The 1-2-3 hitters in the lineup reached base nine times, giving Alex plenty of opportunity to do damage before that point. He finally delivers a solo shot to give New York the lead. Two batters later, Nady follows an I-Rod hit with a home run for the final runs of the game. Mariano Rivera blew a save for the first time in 2008.

The Mets and Marlins waited to see if they would gain ground in the NL East as the Phillies played at Los Angeles. The Phillies scored early off Kershaw, the Dodgers scored late off the bullpen, and the Dodgers came out on top 4-3. Utley hit his 30th home run and Hamels kept the ball in the park, but it wasn't enough as Ethier singled home the winning run in the bottom of the ninth. The Phillies, Mets and Marlins sit 1-2-3 in the NL East, 1 1/2 games separating top from third.

The Dodgers needed the win as Arizona defeated Colorado 4-2. Randy Johnson pitched another great game, striking out seven and walking one over six innings of work. Adam showed how it's Dunn as he walked twice, struck out twice and doubled in the win. Arizona remains one game ahead of the Dodgers. It will be interesting to see if Dunn's selectivity rubs off on other Diamondbacks players.

The Brewers took advantage of Florida's win over St. Louis to increase their lead in the wild card race. It was a bit of a slugfest in San Diego as each team hit two home runs. The Padres' dingers were both solo shots, while Prince Fielder's was good for three runs and Milwaukee wins 5-3. They now hold a solid four game lead for the last playoff spot.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

The Chicago Cubs down the Cardinals 6-2, taking two out of three from their division rivals. Over the Cubs last 13 games, they've played division rivals exclusively. They've won ten of those games, outscoring their opponents 78-49. This was a perfect two-week period for the division to gain on Chicago, and the Cubs put everyone away.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

The Minnesota Twins bring up Francisco Liriano and move into first place on the same day. Liriano's six shutout innings lead to a 6-2 victory over the Indians. Span and Harris hit solo homers to help the cause, and Span, with a .403 OBA is emerging as the leadoff hitter the Twins needed.

The White Sox fall to the Royals 14-3. Greinke and Tejada combine to hold the White Sox offense down, giving up seven hits. Aviles, Butler and Maier combine for ten hits in 14 at bats, scoring four and driving in six. The Royals go to 28-24 when Aviles plays. KC is now if fourth play, three games ahead of the Indians, while the Twins take a 1/2 game lead on the White Sox, even in the loss column at 49.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

Both the Cubs and White Sox won Wednesday night, extending their leads in the two Central Divisions. The Cubs are three for three in the four game series, dropping Milwaukee four games back and into a virtual tie with St. Louis for the Wild Card lead. The Northsiders are sending a pretty strong message, going into Miller Park and outscoring the Brewers 20-7, despite Milwaukee throwing their three best starters.

The three losses by Milwaukee also allowed the rest of the league back into the wild card race, as the Mets, Marlins and Dodgers are now all in striking distance of top second banana.

The White Sox prevented a sweep in their four game series with an 8-3 win over the Twins. Gavin Floyd and Carlos Quentin starred, Floyd pitching into the eighth with one run allowed and Quentin collecting three hits and four RBI, including a double and home run.

Livan Hernandez gave up five earned runs in four innings. His ERA is high, but except for the occasional start like last night, he has been going deep in games. At what point, however, does the 5.48 ERA become a liability? When do the Twins pull the trigger and replace him with Liriano?

The Minnesota Twins eek out a one-run victory over the White Sox, the second of their four game series. This pulls Minnesota even with Chicago in the totally unimportant win column (TUWC). However if the Twins win tomorrow night, they will have pulled even in the All Freakin' Important Loss Column (AFILC), and somehow make up a loss. :-)

Mauer and Morneau did most of the damage against Chicago, driving in five of the six runs on the night. The two have combined for 130 RBI this season.

The Cubs defeat the Brewers 7-1 as Carlos Zambrano pitches eight shutout innings. His nine strikeouts represents a season high. He upped his Ks without upping his walks, as he issued just two free passes.

Sheets, who had walked nine Cubs in two starts, only issued one tonight. The Cubs, however, hammered pitches in the zone as they collected eleven hits in 5 1/3 innings off the Brewers ace. That was good for six runs and the Cubs cruised the rest of the way. Chicago extends their NL Central lead to three games, and the Brewers are now just one game ahead of the Cardinals for the wild card lead. The Cubs should feel good right now. The Brewers threw their two best pitchers in the first two games of this series and Chicago walked away with wins in both games. The Cubs sure look like the team to beat in the National League this season.

There have been a number of well pitched games tonight. Oliver Perez joins the list as he allows one run over six innings and the Mets down the Marlins 4-1. He finishes up a great July in which he's allowed five earned runs in 32 2/3 innings, good for a 1.38 ERA. Delgado added his ninth home run of the month. That's almost 40% of his season total. The Mets maintain their 1/2 game lead over the Phillies.

While the Red Sox fell to the Angels, the Rays received a great pitching performance from Matt Garza. He pitches a shutout, allowing just five hits as the Rays down the Blue Jays 3-0. Facing Roy Halladay, Garza had to be at his best, and he walked one and struck out five. Eric Hinske had the big blow, a solo home run in the third. That was all Garza needed as he picks up his ninth win lowers his ERA to 3.56. It's Garza's second complete game of the year and his career.

The win extends the Rays lead in the AL East to two games. It's one of the first times this season when Tampa Bay was able to gain on Boston with the Rays on the road and the Red Sox at home.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

The Twins take down the Indians 4-2. Both starters, Blackburn and Sowers pitch well and deep into the game, but neither bullpen comes through. Dennys Reyes allows Cleveland to tie the game at two, while Rafael Perez gives up two runs in the ninth to lose the game for the Indians. Two of the Twins four runs scored on outs.

Meanwhile, Detroit managed a 6-4 win over the White Sox. Both teams hit two home runs, all solo shots. Zach Miner showed unusual control, walking none and striking out five. He came into the game with more walks than strikeouts. Ivan Rodriguez went four for four and is now hitting .354 since the start of June.

The Twins win and the White Sox loss puts Minnesota 2 1/2 games back of Chicago in the AL Central. The two team open a four game series in the Twin Cites tomorrow. Minnesota needs to take three out of four to keep the pressure on Chicago. So far, the White Sox lead the season series 7-4. They don't play again until the penultimate series of the season.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

The Cardinals 14 inning victory over the Mets Saturday night resulted in both the NL East and NL Central races getting tighter. The Mets lead the Phillies and Marlins by one game, while the Cubs and Brewers are tied for the NL Central lead with Cardinals three games back.

Right now, there are three division races involving three teams within three games of first place, two division races where two teams are less than four games apart and only one blow out race (the AL West). All in all, there are 19 teams in first or ten games out of first place. It a very exciting race, and we've already seen a number of substantial comebacks. I've been trying to score the season to see if it is indeed tighter than others through 7/26, and the best I can do right now is look at the standard deviation of winning percentage among the 30 teams:

Through games of July 26th in the given season.

Season	WPct STD
2007	0.0587
2000	0.0612
2008	0.0658
2005	0.0692
1999	0.0704
2004	0.0742
2006	0.0745
2002	0.0838
2001	0.0842
2003	0.0856
1998	0.0871

Last year at this time the races were close, but there were few really bad teams. Cleveland had yet to go on their streak that buried the rest of the AL Central. In 2000, there were more big division leads, but few really bad teams.

So in 2008, we seem to have a good mix for tight division races. A few bad teams allow the decent teams to put together winning streaks. Combined with none of the good teams being truly outstanding (even the Angels, the only team over .600, are far exceeding their projected winning percentage), and almost every division is up for grabs. It should be a fun last two months of the year.

The Brewers come back with two runs in the seventh and two runs in the eighth to defeat the Astros 6-4. The win puts Milwuakee into a tie with the Cubs for first place in the NL Central. Ryan Braun hits his 27th home run to tie the game. He's hit 7 home runs and drove in 20 runs so far in the month of July, four of those homers and 12 of those RBI coming since the All-Star break.

The Yankees defeat the Red Sox 10-3 to keep their winning streak alive. They now trail the Red Sox by one game, but are even in the All Freakin' Important Loss Column (AFILC). A win tomorrow and the Yankees take over the wild card lead.

After finishing April one game under .500, they've been going up by powers of two since. The Yankees played May two games over .500, then four over in May, and now they are 14-6 in July.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

LyfLines notes the Red Sox and Rays home/road schedules heavily favors Boston the rest of the way.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

Johan Santana goes eight innings against the Phillies, allowing two runs. With Billy Wagner unavailable, Duaner Sanchez comes in to get the save. He starts a ninth inning that so far has resulted in the Phillies scoring six runs, taking an 8-5 lead. The radio announcers noted that Santana threw 105 pitches, and wonder why he didn't come out for the ninth. He's gone over 110 pitches six times this season. The Mets just brought out their fourth pitcher of the inning.

Update: Heilman gets the Mets out of the inning. New York will need to score at least three runs against Lidge.

Update: The Mets score one in the 9th but fall 8-6. The Phillies open up a one-game lead over New York.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

The Texas Rangers shut down the Chicago White Sox Monday night behind the pitching of Scott Feldman and three strong innings by the bullpen. Feldman made one mistake, a gopher ball to Carlos Quentin that plated the White Sox's only run. Hamilton and Blalock went deep for Texas, account for five of the six Texas runs. That gives Hamilton 98 RBI in 96 games he's played, and 100 Texas games. That puts him on a pace for 159 RBI this season.

With the Oakland loss to Tampa Bay, the Rangers move into second place in the AL West, 8 1/2 games behind the Angels (who fell last night to the Cleveland Indians). They are also 5 1/2 games back in the AL Wild Card race. Starting on 4/25, Texas is 45-32, the fourth best record in the majors.

The Yankees pulled within a game of the Twins, easily defeating them by a score of 12-4. The whole team hit well, but three struggling players turned in fine performances. The 6 through 8 players, Cano, Cabrera and Molina combined for a seven for fourteen night with four runs scored. Cano added a home run. That was more than enough runs for Ponson, who goes to 6-1 on the season. The Yankees are undefeated in four games since the break, and now sit 2 1/2 games behind the Red Sox for the wild card, pending the outcome of the Boston game in Seattle.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

I'm back from Atlanta after flight delays and traffic delays. In my absence, five of the six division races tightened. The Yankees swept the Athletics, the Rays took two out of three from Toronto, and the Angels swept the Red Sox. That puts the Yankees 4 1/2 back in the division and three back in the wild card.

The Twins took two out of three from Texas while the White Sox lost two out of three to Kansas City. That puts Minnesota 1/2 game back in the AL Central.

The Dodgers took two out of three from the Diamondbacks to force a tie for first place in the NL West. Both teams are two games under .500.

The Cubs lost two out of three to the Astros, while the Brewers swept the Giants, outscoring them 24-10. The Cardinals swept the Padres 30-20 over four games. St. Louis and Milwaukee are two and three back of the Cubs respectively. It looks like this division is the class of the National League.

Finally, the Marlins took two out of three from the Phillies while the Mets split four with the Reds. That puts the Mets into a tie for first place with the Marlins 1/2 game out. That gives us three three-team races, two two-team races, and the Angels, the luckiest team in terms of run difference running away with the AL West. It should be an exciting finish to the season.

The Phillies trailed the Marlins by three home runs coming into this evening's game, but they hit two to Florida's none as they take the game 4-2. Howard and Jenkins each hit solo shots, and Utley collect two hits and an RBI. The Phillies bullpen continues to pitch well, allowing no runs in three innings of work.

Meanwhile, the Reds get to John Maine for hits, five walks and five runs in 4 2/3 innings of work. That was all the runs the Reds needed as Bronson Arroyo pitched eight strong innings and the Mets winning streak ended 5-2. Maine has now allowed 14 earned runs in his last four starts, lasting a total of 19 innings.

The Phillies regain sole possession of first place, one game ahead of the Mets and 2 1/2 games in front of the Marlins.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest post on the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

The Tampa Bay Rays lose their seventh in a row, falling 5-2 to the Cleveland Indians. They drew seven walks in four innings against Cleveland starter Jeremy Sowers, but only managed two runs. The Tribe's bullpen then pitched five perfect innings that allowed Cleveland to come back against Scott Kazmir.

Meanwhile, Daisuke Matsuzaka pitched six scoreless innings against Baltimore despite walking five batters. Boston held on for a 2-1 win as Jonathan Papelbon nearly blew the save, allowing three hits and one run. The Red Sox win and the Rays loss propel the Boston into first place by 1/2 game, although the Rays are still one game up in the AFILC.

Correction: It's the AFILC, not the AFLIC. It stands for the All F'in Important Loss Column.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

The Arizona Diamondbacks fall one game under .500 as the Nationals win the game 5-0. It's another poor outing for Micah Owings, who allows three runs in 5 2/3 innings. The Dodgers can tie the DBacks for the NL West lead with a win over Atlanta.

John Lannan pitched six shutout innings for the Nationals. He'll probably garner some Rookie of the Year support, pitching well for a bad team.

The Red Sox and Yankees splitting four games this weekend turned out to be good news for both the Rays and the Twins. Both teams boast winning streaks of at least five games, so were able to gain ground and extend leads on the big two. The Rays now lead by five games in the AL East, seven games in the AFILC. The Twins are just 1/2 game behind Boston for the wild card. At this point, it's possible that neither Boston nor New York make the playoffs. That would certainly be a shock.

The Dodgers win again, taking down Houston 5-2. The young hitters played well. Ethier and Loney homered, and DeWitt drove in two. Loney hit for a high average in June, but hit only one home run. Los Angeles could use him picking up his power.

The Diamondbacks are losing 3-0 in the sixth. An Arizona loss puts the Dodgers 1/2 game out of first place in the NL West. Dodgers are 10-5 over their last 15 games.

The Oakland Athletics defeated the LAnaheim Angels 6-1 last night, cutting the lead in both the AL West and the Wild card to 3 1/2 games. The Oakland battery starred last night. Greg Smith pitched a complete game, using just 101 pitches to stop the Angels on four hits. It's the second complete game for the rookie, the other an eight inning loss to the Angels. When few pitchers collect one complete game in a season, Smith's total of two is impressive.

Of course, both CG were against the Angels, the team tied for the most CG against in the majors:

Most Compete Games Against, 2008

Team	CG Against
Angels	8
Royals	8
White Sox	5
Twins	5
Mariners	4

The Angels philosophy is to put the ball in play. That makes it a bit easier for the opposing pitcher to be efficient. Smith took great advantage of that last night.

Kurt Suzuki knocked out two hits last night and scored a run, including a double. He's had an up and down season, but he's hot again and back at the top of the order:

Kurt Suzuki, 2008

Month	OBA	Slug Pct
March-April	.367	.330
May	.245	.277
June	.435	.543

Overall Kurt now holds a .348 OBA and a .375 slugging percentage. At those levels he's a useful offensive catcher. At his June levels he's a superstar.

The Rays and Red Sox each played a one-run game today. The Rays came out on top in theirs winning 4-3 over the Pirates. Aybar and Riggans both homered for Tampa Bay, but the final difference was an unearned run scored in the eighth on a Nady error that allowed the runners to advance an extra base.

Boston fell to Houston 3-2. Aardsma and Okajima combined to allow a run in the eighth, with David putting the runner on base and Hideki giving up the RBI.

With today marking the end of the 13th week of the season, the Rays how sit in first place in the AL East by 1/2 game. Tampa Bay is 14-10 in one-run games, the Red Sox 11-12. More important, however, is their home/road splits. Boston is two games ahead of Tampa Bay in terms of their road records, but 2 1/2 behind on the road. The Rays, with the win today are .500 on the road, while Boston sits five games under.

Both Western division races tightened a bit Friday night. Chan Ho Park continued to show his great control at Dodger Stadium, walking none and striking out seven over six shutout innings of work. The pen was even better, retiring all nine batters faced, seven more on strikeouts. The Angels, the great contact team, went down on strikes fourteen times in the game as they fell 6-0. That's only the 8th time in 1376 games with the Angels that a Scioscia team struck out fourteen or more times in a game, and only the 2nd time since 2004.

Taking advantage of the Angels loss were the Oakland Athletics. Dana Eveland held the Giants to five his and one run, while the Oakland offense scored three times off Keiichi Yabu to take the game 4-1. Eveland has allowed just three home runs all year and none since May 21st.

The Arizona Diamondbacks lost to the Florida Marlins Friday night 3-1. That puts the Diamondback at .500, 40-40. A loss today and they will lead their division with a sub .500 record. While some teams have come close, we've never had a sub .500 team make the playoffs before. The AL West was like this in 1994, but the strike prevented a team that poor from joining the post-season festivities.

Arizona is 20-8 vs. the NL West, so maybe once they get back to playing intra-division games, their record will rise again.

The Royals defeat the Rockies behind Luke Hochevar 4-2. Combined with the Indians loss (to Barry Zito!), Kansas City moves 1/2 game ahead of Cleveland. They also maintain their MLB best record in interleague play. With the White Sox losing to the Dodgers, the Royals could be seven games out of first by the end of the night.

A few weeks ago it looked like there would be five tight division races this season, with most teams a win streak away from a chance at first place. With June almost 1/3 over, four teams have taken control of their divisions:

Best Winning Percentage in June, 2008

Team	Record	Winning Percentage
Phillies	7-1	.875
White Sox	7-1	.875
Angels	6-2	.750
Red Sox	6-2	.750
Giants	6-2	.750

In each of these streaks by first place teams, they knocked out teams in contention. The Phillies were 4-0 against Florida and Atlanta. The Red Sox swept the Rays. The Angels took two out of three from Oakland, and the White Sox swept a four game series from the Twins. Chicago now holds the biggest lead of any first place team, 6 1/2 games.

Meanwhile, five of the six divisions are down to two team races. Except for the NL West, no third place team is closer than 6 1/2 games. In fact, the NL West went from the least competitive division to one of the most as the Padres and Giants winning streak and Arizona's fall off have brought the top four teams within 6 1/2 games of each other.

Obviously, things can chance quickly. Right now, however, there are eleven teams at about .500, and that's no longer competitive.

The Phillies remain hot, defeating the Braves 6-2 tonight behind the pitching of Kendrick and the bullpen. Kendrick pitched into the sixth, the only runs coming on a two-run shot by Chipper Jones. The best bullpen in the majors then shut the Braves down the rest of the way, allowing one hit and two walks over 3 2/3 innings while striking out six, including the last four batters.

Pat Burrell doubled and homered, Utley tripled, and Rollins drove in two with his fourth homer of the season. With the Marlins losing at the moment, the Phillies lead in the NL east could go to 4 1/2 games.

On this Memorial Day, there are only five team more than 6 1/2 games out of first. The American League, which usually comes down to five or six teams competing for four spots, has 13 of 14 teams in the race in terms of games back, with both the AL East and AL Central five-team races. The only non-competitive division right now is the NL West, and that's still a two-team race. The 1998 expansion teams, Tampa Bay and Arizona both are playing .600 balls, but there are no super teams so far. There seems to be a lot of teams running hot and cold, like the Blue Jays. The NL has gone down to the wire the last few seasons, and we may get to see that in the American League as well in 2008.

The Rays moved ahead of the Red Sox Sunday with a sweep of the Orioles while Bostn was being swept by Oakland. Which team holds first place during the year may depend on which is traveling and which is home:

At Home

2008	Boston	Tampa Bay
Record	21-5	19-8
Runs Per Game	6.0	4.4
Allowed Per Game	3.8	3.1

On the Road

2008	Boston	Tampa Bay
Record	10-17	11-12
Runs Per Game	4.3	4.8
Allowed Per Game	5.1	5.0

The Rays show a more typical home/road scoring pattern with both the offense and defense moving in the same direction away from Tropicana Field. n the Rays case, the pitching is more sensitive to the move than the hitters. The Red Sox are odd. Their batting average goes down 30 points on the road, but their OBA goes down 50 points. Is the batting background that much better at Fenway that Red Sox hitters see balls and strikes better? Or are pitchers just less intimidated outside of Fenway and are willing to throw more strikes? I would think selectivity would be one thing fairly park independent.

The most puzzling thing, of course, is why Red Sox pitchers do poorly in the road? The team is actually walking more at home, giving up more home runs, and striking out fewer batters. They are, however, giving up a lower batting average.

It looks like the difference comes down to pitching with men in scoring position. At home, the Red Sox allow a .225 BA with men in scoring position. On the road, .301. They've actually been in more RISP situations at home, 272 PA at Fenway vs. 249 PA on the road. In other words, the Red Sox ERA at Fenway is likely better than fielding independent pitching would predict.

The Red Sox should be allowing about 4.5 runs per game at home. Even with that level of opponent scoring, the team should post a great home record. A falloff from their current .808 home winning percentage may mean trouble, as Tampa's home/road record looks sustainable.

For a while I've wanted to write Borda Count polling software, but really didn't have the time to invest to do it properly. So when I saw that Google Documents was offering a way to create forms to populate a spreadsheet, I thought I might have something that worked decently. So I put up this survey, asking you to rank the fourteen AL teams by how you believe they'll finish the season. So far, 125 voted, and you can see both the voting and calculated results here. Sheet one contains the voting and sheet two the results.

Update: In looking at the voting results, there appears to be someone who put in lots of Baltimore Orioles votes. I'll see if I can remove those records.

The Red Sox fall to the Twins 7-3. Boston scored in the first inning but that was it as Buchholz was wild tonight, walking five in 4 1/3 innings. Meanwhile, the Rays take down the Yankees 7-1. Garza records a short shutout, lasting seven innings without allowing a run. The Yankees offense continues a listless start of the season.

With the Rays win and the Red Sox loss, Tampa Bay is now just 1/2 game behind the Red Sox in the AL East. The Rays keep setting team records for games over .500, now six.

Gabe Gross walks, steals and scores on a Kapler single as the Brewers defeat the Cardinals 9-8 in twelve innings. The last two games work out well for the Cubs, who once again stifle the Mets offense 8-1. While the Brewers and Cardinals are splitting contests, the Cubs taking two allows them to pull ahead of both NL Central foes.

Gross isn't hitting for average, but that's the ninth walk he's drawn this season in 43 at bats. If he keeps up that kind of selectivity, the hits should come as well.

Carroll hits a fly ball to medium right. Giles catches and throws home, but the throw has a high arc, and Holliday beats the throw just barely. The replay shows that it looks like Holliday never tagged the plate. Matt burned his face on the dirt, so he was just lying there. If Barrett picked up the ball and tried to tag him, there would be an argument. The ump took a second to see if Barrett held on to the ball, and when he saw it was free, he made the safe call.

What a game, what an inning! The Rockies now head to Philadelphia as the two comeback teams meet head on in the NLDS. Congratulations to the Rockies on a great stretch run to win the Wild Card! Holliday was close to being the goat, but he winds up one of the heroes.

The Colorado Rockies host the San Diego Padres in the final game of the regular season today. The Rockies won thirteen of their last fourteen games to earn a tie for the NL Wild Card, forcing a one-game playoff with the Padres. Jake Peavy faces Josh Fogg tonight, with the game starting at 7:30 EDT on TBS (which DirecTV now broadcasts in HD!).

Peavy was simply the best pitcher in the majors this season. He leads in ERA by a whopping 0.65 runs. Jake strikes out close to ten a game while walking less than three. He allowed just eleven home runs all season, better than one every eighteen innings.

And yes, Jake plays in a park that does nothing to help hitters, but if you put Jake on the road he still is first in ERA in the majors. He walks more and allows a home run rate that's a tiny bit higher, but it just doesn't matter where Jake pitched in 2007. This is his first game at Coors in 2007, but he's pitched well there in his career.

Josh Fogg pitched to his career averages this season. His strikeout, walk and home run totals were very close to what you'd expect based on the career of the pitcher. Coors was not kind to him, as he posted a 5.66 ERA there vs. 4.16 on the road.

Fogg's went up and down with the months, with high ERAs in April, June and August and low ERAs in May, July and September. In fact, Fogg getting hot in the final month contributed to the Rockies making it this far. He defeated contenders Arizona, Los Angeles and San Diego in the month, posting a 3.25 ERA. Most importantly, he allowed just one home run down the stretch, 0.33 HR per nine innings versus 1.41 the rest of the season.

And his teammates have a special name for him:

"We call him the dragon slayer," Holliday said. "He's been beating aces all year long."

He hung a loss on Brandon Webb twice and such notables as Rich Hill, Curt Schilling, Derek Lowe, Mike Mussina and Orlando Hernandez. He out-pitched Brad Penny in the stretch drive, although Penny didn't get the loss. So the final day of the season comes down to David Fogg vs. Goliath Peavy. And David had some success with the slingshot this season.

Enjoy!

Balls, Sticks and Stuff basks in the glory of the Phillies comeback. His wife sums it up best:

Nomination for quote of the day on Sunday comes from The Missus during the late innings: "I've never seen so many smiling Philadelphians."

I don't really buy the Jimmy Rollins for MVP argument. He wasn't the best hitting shortstop in the NL East (Ramirez) nor the best hitter on his team (Utley, despite the injury). The problem is most people ahead of him didn't play on winning teams, and Utley was in fact injured, missing a month of the season. So Rollins will accumulate quite a few votes.

Update: According to Baseball Prospectus, the Mets collapse was the second biggest in history, just behind the 1995 Angels. That's based on fall from the highest probability of making the playoffs, based on BP's monte carlo method. On August 20th, 1995, the Angels had a 99.988% of making the playoffs. The Mets were 99.80 at their peak on September 12th. Now if you factor in time, I think the Mets fall was worse, but not much. The Angels peaking in late August says they were a great team in a weak division with weak wild cards. The Mets were a good team with a big lead late.

Here's the story on the playoff game tomorrow:

This battle needs an extra game, No. 163. The victory -- the Rockies' 13th in 14 games -- in front of 46,375, coupled with the Padres' 11-6 loss to the Brewers, forged a tie for the National League Wild Card. The Padres and Rockies will meet at Coors Field on Monday at 5:37 p.m. MT.

The winner will face the NL East champion Phillies on Wednesday at Citizens Bank Park in the Division Series.

The Phillies defeat the Nationals 6-1 to complete an improbable comeback. They play eight games better than the Mets down the stretch, nosing them out for the NL East championship by one game. Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard collected the big hits, Rollins racing for his twentieth triple to equal Granderson's 20 doubles, 20 triples and 20 home run season. He scored twice. Howard hit his 47th home run of the year. It's also his 11th of the month, his best month for home runs.

Congratulations to the Phillies on winning the NL East, even if it means no four-way tie!

Glavine walks the first batter, then gets a force out. The Marlins get his measure after that as four straight hits plate four runs. Ross' double clears the bases on a sloppy play in which Cabrera ran through a stop sign and scored, then Glavine threw the ball away as Ross tried to go to third, and he scores as well. He just walked Treanor, and another hit loads the bases.

Update: Glavine hits Willis, and it's 5-0.

Update: Sosa is on in relief.

Update: Sosa get Ramirez, but Uggla doubles in two more runs. It's 7-0 in the first and the Mets are really buried. The four way tie is on life support.

Jim Salisbury notes the Phillies were in a similar situation in 1950:

This isn't the first time a Phillies season has come down to the last day. It did so in the torturous 1964 season and again in 2005. Both times the Phillies won the final game, but missed the playoffs.

In 1950, the year of the Whiz Kids, the Phils won the National League pennant on the final day, beating the Brooklyn Dodgers on Dick Sisler's three-run homer in the 10th.

Hall of Famer Robin Roberts pitched all 10 innings that day.

The Phillies led the Dodgers by one game that day in 1950, so a loss would have forced a playoff. Today, a win means they'll at least play Monday.

The Rockies trounce the Diamondbacks 11-1, gaining a game on the Phillies and the Padres. The four-way tie scenario is still in place as the three games that needed specific outcomes went the right way. Here's what needs to happen tomorrow:

• Mets win.
• Phillies win.
• San Diego loses.
• Colorado wins.

The first two happening means a playoff for the NL East title on Monday. The third happening as well means the loser on Monday needs to play at least one more game Tuesday. All four and the NLDS gets delayed. It should be an exciting Sunday!

Update: I'm seeing on the Baseball Prospectus chatter the odds of a four-way tie are 12.6%. Much better than I thought.

Update: I see that the Padres are going to pitch Tomko tomorrow instead of Peavy. They'd rather have Jake go on full rest for a playoff, or be ready to start game 1 if it doesn't happen. Tomko instead of Peavy makes me a little more confident of a Padres loss tomorrow.

Also, if the Mets, Phillies and Padres lose tomorrow and the Rockies win, there will be two playoff games on Monday, one for the NL East and one for the Wild Card.

The Cleveland Indians lose to the Royals, 4-3, giving the Red Sox home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Boston has one hour to decide if they want the extra-day off in the playoffs (I believe the Indians game ended at 10:19 PM EDT).

The Red Sox defeat the Twins 6-4 on a three-run home run by J.D. Drew in the seventh. The win reduces the Red Sox magic number to one for clinching the best record in the league and home field through the playoffs. Cleveland is currently losing 3-2 in the seventh, so it might happen tonight.

Drew hasn't been popular with the Boston fans, as his .500 slugging percentage didn't show up. But his long ball tonight was his fourth of the month and he's slugging well over .500 in September. I think Red Sox fans will forgive his season if he keeps that hot hitting through the playoffs.

Vinny Rottino singles in Ryan Braun in the bottom of the eleventh, and the Brewers spoil the Padres chance at clinching a playoff berth. Ryan doubled earlier in the inning. That means the four way tie is still alive, and if the Rockies can win, it lives for another day. Also, the Diamondbacks clinch the NL West, because they win the tie breaker with San Diego.

The Mets defeat the Marlins 13-0 to stay alive in the NL East. They'll play a meaningful game tomorrow. Six players picked up multiple hits, with Milledge's two homers being the highlight of the day offensively. Maine set a career high striking out 14 in 7 2/3 innings, leaving after giving up the first Marlins hit of the day.

The Mets also preserve a chance at a four way tie. San Diego needs to lose to make that happen.

With the Phillies in first, Todd Zolecki points out this fact:

It has been said before, but it is worth repeating for fans and a franchise that has not lived October baseball since 1993: No team in baseball history has blown a seven-game lead with 17 games to play.

The Mets could be the first.

The Phillies are 12-3 since they trailed the Mets by seven on Sept. 12.

The Mets are 4-11.

As the headline screamed in yesterday's New York Post: "Paging Dr. Heimlich."

Meanwhile, a great headline at the NY Post, METS HAVE VIEW FROM THE FLOP.

In the clubhouse afterward, David Wright confirmed his humiliation. The choked-up third baseman's words were enough.

"Personally I'm embarrassed," Wright said after a fifth straight defeat slid the Mets into second place. "I think it's embarrassing. It's pretty pathetic that we have this division within our grasp with seven home games and we can't find a way to win one of them."

The cover is pretty good too, "You Gotta Bereave!"

Lisa Olson at the New appreciates the Mets creativity:

It's not easy to blow a season in such astonishing fashion. But that's exactly what the Mets have done, losing to the Marlins, 7-4, last night and falling a game behind Philadelphia in the National League East race with two games to play. It's rare to hit three batters in one inning, but that's what Oliver Perez did in a start he needed to control, in a game the Mets had to win.

Duck! Here comes another Perez slider, an arrow zipping around the target.

Duck! There go the Mets, the team with the highest payroll and the most talent in the National League, collapsing like a house made of toothpicks.

The New York Times profiles the unofficial Mets poet, Frank Messina. From Thursday's game:

Do you know what it's like

To be chased by the Ghost of Failure

While staring through Victory's door?

Of course you do, you're a Mets fan.

However, the Mets failures rarely include late season chokes. They're more about seven year stretches of second division teams and a few bad playoff losses. But if this collapse plays out, Frank will need to write an epic.

Friday turned out badly for a massive tie. The four-way for the wild card and NL east is still possible, but much less likely. Here's how we get there:

Team	Record
Rockies	2-0
Mets	2-0
Phillies	1-1
Padres	0-2

A win by the Padres and there's no massive tie. The best we could do at that point is have the Mets and Phillies tie for the east and hold a one-game playoff on Monday, which would still be very exciting. But if the Padres win, they're at least the wild card.

Trevor Hoffman strikes out Rickie Weeks in the ninth, and the Padres defeat the Brewers 6-3. That ends Milwaukee's season as the Chicago Cubs win the NL Central title, the second National League team to claim a playoff spot. Congratulations to the Cubs on a great comeback season. The off-season moves paid off as Soriano, Lilly and Marquis all turned out to be major contributors to the Cubs success, and Lou Piniella kept the team moving toward victory. Congratulations to the Cubs on going from worst to first!

Correction: I forgot that with the Mets losing, the Diamondbacks clinched a playoff spot. They'll either win the west or the wild card, because there can't be a four-way tie involving the Mets, Phillies Diamondbacks and Padres. The DBacks were the first team to clinch. Originally, I thought it was the Cubs. The post was changed to reflect reality.

After a double and a passed ball in the bottom of the tenth, the Yankees intentionally load the bases. Ramirez strikes out Millar, but Mora drops a bunt to third and the winning run scores as the Orioles take the Yankees 10-9.

That loss settles a number of things in the AL East. The Yankees fail to finish at the top of the division for the first time since 1997. Since the Red Sox are now division champs, the Angels can't finish with the best record in the league, since Boston holds the tie breaker. Cleveland is two outs away from winning, and if they hold on, they'll be one of the top two teams in the league. So with two outs in KC, the ALDS will be set with Boston hosting LAnaheim and Cleveland hosting New York.

Update: Cleveland wins 5-3, Sabathia wins his 19th game and the Indians get to play the Yankees in the ALDS. Now we just need to see if the Indians or the Red Sox win the choice of the extra day off.

The Rockies put two men on in the ninth, but Valverde strikes out the other three batters to prevent them from advancing, and the Diamondbacks win 4-2, clinching at least a tie for the wild card. The Diamondbacks actually celebrated that on the field! They're a young team, and given their run difference, a pretty major accomplishment. The Rockies can't win the west as they drop to three games back, but they still have a shot at the wild card. San Diego is winning 6-3, however, going to the bottom of the ninth.

Correction: I forgot that with the Mets losing, the Diamondbacks clinched a playoff spot. They'll either win the west or the wild card, because there can't be a four-way tie involving the Mets, Phillies Diamondbacks and Padres. The DBacks were the first team to clinch. That's why they were celebrating.

The Marlins defeat the Mets 7-4 as the Florida pen pitches four scoreless innings in relief of Kim, who gets the win for five less than stellar innings. Ramirez and Uggla were the offensive stars at the top of the order, combining for four hits, a walk and five runs scored.

The loss drops the Mets one game behind the Phillies in the NL East race. It also make Rollins early season boast that the Phillies were the team to beat two wins closer to reality.

The Cubs finish off the Reds 6-0, clinching a tie for the NL Central. As the game finishes, they notice the Padres have taken a 4-3 lead on the Brewers. Back-to-back doubles by Gonzalez and Greene plate the go-ahead run in the top of the sixth.

Breaking Balls wonders who Bud Black should pitch on Sunday. If they have to win, he throws Peavy. And what the hell, if he has to pitch somebody the next day, any other pitcher on short rest is better than Tomko. I throw Cassel out there and hope the bullpen is rested.

The Mets flipped for home field in case of a Wild Card tie yesterday. I updated this post. The Mets play at Colorado or host San Diego.

On Sept. 17, 1964, the Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Dodgers 4-3 to open a 6 1/2 game lead on the St. Louis Cardinals. Philadelphia lost twelve of their next thirteen games to fall 2 1/2 games back in the race. They won their last two games, but two little too late. The Cardinals finished the season on an 11-5 tear and won the NL and the World Series. Gene Mauch's name became synonymous with late season collapses.

On Sept. 12, 2007, the Mets defeated Atlanta 4-3 to go up seven games in the NL East. Since that time, the Mets are 4-10 while the Phillies have posted an 11-3 record to tie the Mets with three games to go. It's too bad Gene is not around anymore, I'm sure he'd enjoy this turnaround.

Using the Day by Day Database, I looked at run differences in the NL through 9/17/1964. The Phillies owned the largest difference, but it wasn't large enough to put them up 6 1/2 games:

Run Difference Though 9/17/1964, NL Teams

Team	Run Difference
Phillies	82
Reds	78
Pirates	61
Giants	52
Cardinals	46
Dodgers	29

Like the 2007 NL, no team stood out in terms of both batting and pitching. So the Phillies lead was on a shaky foundation, and regression to the mean happened with a vengeance. Through 9/12, the Mets were in first place in the NL with a +71, and four teams were within 10 of that. The Phillies were +37. It's an excellent parallel.

Home Run Derby points out that a pledge by Brewers fans seems to have saved a lot of laundry bills.

It's a final in Los Angeles as the Rockies defeat the Dodgers 10-4. With the Rockies winning tonight, they are two games behind the Arizona Diamondbacks going into a three game series. That means it's impossible for the two teams to finish even, killing the chance for a five way tie. However, four way ties are still possible.

There are two possibilities that lead to three days of playoffs:

Team	Record
Rockies	3-0
Phillies	2-1
Mets	2-1
Padres	1-2
Diamondbacks	0-3

In this case, the Rockies finish first in the NL West with ninety wins, while the four other teams are tied at eighty nine. The Mets and Phillies hold a one game playoff in Philadelphia, then the loser joins San Diego and Arizona in a two day, two game wild card tournament. This also works if the Rockies go 2-1. In that case, Arizona wins the division, and the Rockies take the Diamondbacks' place in the Wild Card tournament.

The other four way tie possibility goes like this:

Team	Record
Rockies	3-0
Phillies	3-0
Mets	3-0
Padres	2-1
Diamondbacks	0-3

In this case, the Rockies, Phillies, Mets and Padres are all tied, but the Diamondbacks get no chance to advance. There would be two playoff games on Monday for the division championship, then the two losers meet on Tuesday to determine the Wild Card winner.

I like the first four-way tie better, because it keeps more teams involved and takes longer to sort out. Not only does it have a higher probability of happening, but it's possible for the Brewers to tie the Cubs as well! It's also possible that the Mets, Phillies, Rockies and Padres all sweep, which would cause a three-way tie for the Wild Card between the Mets, Phillies and Rockies, also requiring a two-day playoff. In that one, the Mets and Phillies play for the NL East title in Philadelphia, with the loser playing Colorado the next day. The Phillies would play in Denver, but we don't know where New York would play because they didn't include the Mets in the tie-breaker flip for the Wild Card!

It's going to be a fun weekend. One nice thing, no matter what happens tomorrow, the better four way tie stays in play.

Correction: Fixed the result of the four team sweep. It wasn't a three-way tie for the wild card, it was an NL East playoff, then a wild card playoff, although for all intents and purposes, Colorado gets the Monday off.

Update: There was a coin toss yesterday.

MLB flipped a coin yesterday to decide the host of more possible two-team wild-card tiebreaker games on Monday. The Mets won two out of three. They would host the Padres or the Diamondbacks. But if the Mets have to face the Rockies, they would have to fly to Denver.

The Padres defeat the Brewers 9-5, the difference in the game the four unearned runs allowed by Milwaukee. The Brewers DER is low this year, and while they don't lead the league in errors, they're just another manifestation of balls getting through for hits.

For the second night in a row, Milwaukee fails to capitalize on a Cubs loss. They remain two games out with three to play. San Diego goes into the final weekend one game behind the Diamondbacks, and one game ahead of the Mets and Phillies in the wild card race, with the Colorado game pending.

Atkins and Hawpe go back-to-back in the top of the fourth inning against the Dodgers to take a 3-0 lead. If the Rockies win, the five team tie is an impossibility. I'm torn here, for as much as I'd like to see a five-way tie, I'd like to see the Rockies do well, too.