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May 05, 2008
Michaels on the Move
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The Indians will DFA Jason Michaels Tuesday. Ben Francisco joins the major league team. There's audio of Shapiro discussing the move at the link. He likes the upside of the younger player.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:40 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
May 02, 2008
Turning the Page on Turnbow
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The Milwaukee Brewers designated Derrick Turnbow for assignment. While Turnbow maintained his high strikeout rate since his stellar 2005 season, his walk rate kept creeping up. This season, it went through the roof as he walked 13 in 6 1/3 innings.

I wonder if a good pitching coach can work with Turnbow? He struck out 84 in 68 innings last season. If someone can find what's causing the control problem, he could be turned back into a very useful pitcher cheaply.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:29 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
April 30, 2008
Moeller Returns
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Chad Moeller cleared waivers and is back with the Yankees. Peter Abraham sums up the team's catching situation well:

How has it come to this for the Yankees? People are thrilled Chad Moeller is back. This is a guy who was cut in spring training by the Nationals because they liked Wil Nieves better. A team with a $209 million payroll praying that nobody claims Chad Moeller. Amazing.
Posted by StatsGuru at 04:01 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
April 26, 2008
The Johjima Contract
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The Mariners signed Kenji Johjima to a three-year contract extension despite having a hot prospect in the minor leagues:

That was the word put out by Seattle general manager Bill Bavasi in announcing the extension, which The Associated Press reports is worth $24 million and runs through the 2011 season. Johjima, who is 31 and was hitting just .200 with a dismal .514 on-base-plus-slugging percentage heading into Friday, will remain the No. 1 catcher for the foreseeable future.

But Bavasi sees Clement getting time behind the plate as well.

"I would guess that at some point along the way, because of Jeff's bat -- and assuming Kenji plays the way he can -- Jeff's going to get exposed to another position at some point," Bavasi said. "But we have not given up on him as a catcher. A left-handed hitting catcher with power, those are real tough to find. So, this doesn't change Jeff's track to the big leagues much at all. Because his track to the big leagues is with his bat more than his glove anyway."

Of course, if Johjima plays well, $8 million a year for a good catcher is a reasonable price tag, and the Mariners might be able to move him at some point.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:32 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 24, 2008
Thomas Joins Athletics
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Frank Thomas signed with the Athletics today. Eric Chavez won't be rejoining the team any time soon:

Oakland will be on the hook only for about $337,000 -- a prorated share of the $390,000 minimum -- so this move was a bargain for general manager Billy Beane and a club looking to boost its power numbers.

To clear roster room, the A's placed outfielder Travis Buck on the 15-day disabled list retroactive to April 19 with shin splints and transferred six-time Gold Glove third baseman Eric Chavez to the 60-day disabled list.

I'm starting to wonder if the A's will ever get anything productive out of Chavez again.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:59 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Waiver Pick
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The Oakland Athletics picked up Rajai Davis from the San Francisco Giants.

Davis, designated for assignment three days earlier by the Giants, will join the team today. Good in the field and fast, Davis is likely to be used as a late-innings defensive player and pinch runner.

"He's dynamic in terms of his speed and baserunning," assistant general manager David Forst said. "That's something that's nice to have and it's not easy to find."

Not mentioned is that he put up a pretty good OBA in 2007. I'm not surprised the Athletics took this players, I'm surprised that teams ahead of the A's in waiver order didn't.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:31 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
April 23, 2008
Thomas Back to Oakland?
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There are reports that Frank Thomas is about to sign with the Oakland Athletics, but nothing official yet.

I'd rather sign Barry Bonds, but the Big Hurt is the next best thing.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:12 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
April 20, 2008
Thomas Released!
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Wow! The Blue Jays released Frank Thomas.

When told of his benching yesterday, the Big Hurt said it was an attempt by the club to limit his at bats in order to make sure he didn't get the 304 plate appearances required to guarantee his $10-million option for next season.

The vesting option was part of the $18.12-million, two-year deal he signed with the Blue Jays in November 2006.

On Saturday, general manager J.P. Ricciardi denied that Thomas' contract factored into the decision to bench the 19-year veteran.

"I think the decision is the manager's based on what he thinks is best for the team," said Ricciardi. "As a team we're struggling offensively and I just think Gibby is trying to spark our offence a little bit.

"A lot of guys are struggling, I don't think (Thomas) is alone. I think at this point you try and do what you can do to help the club and Gibby's trying to put our best possible lineup on the field."

There has to be a lot more to this story than a slow start. Anything can happen in 100 PA, and Frank was only around 70. As I mentioned earlier, his walk total indicates he hasn't lost his batting eye, and his strikeout rate is at the high end of his various seasonal rates, but not out of the ordinary. I'm guessing there was some descension someplace, and Frank got the boot. I would think some team could add a pretty good hitter to their mix right now.

Thanks to Baseball Digest Daily for the heads up.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:36 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
April 18, 2008
Longoria's Contract
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The Rays sign Longoria to a six year contract with a one year option, then a two year option.

The salaries for the first six years of the agreement are guaranteed with the team holding a one-year option for 2014 season and a subsequent two-year option for the 2015 and 2016 seasons. The contract guarantees $17.5 million. If the Rays exercise both options, Longoria would earn more than $44 million over the life of the nine-year agreement.

Longoria is set for life, and the Rays won't lose him until after his peak. On top of that, there's no need to worry about arbitration. A great deal for Tampa Bay.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:08 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Service Time Doesn't Matter
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It looks like keeping Evan Longoria down was a waste of time because the Rays are about to sign him to a long-term contract:

The details of the contract are not yet known, but it is believed that the deal will be for six years in the $17 million range with option scenarios that will enable the Rays to buy out two years of Longoria's free agency.

The contract, to be announced at 1 p.m. ET, also is expected to include escalators that will enable Longoria to add to his guaranteed money if he develops into a major star.

Longoria, the third overall pick in the 2006 draft, has batted .300 with one home run and three RBIs. The Rays are treating him almost like a high NFL or NBA draft pick, paying him before he is an accomplished player.

I'm surprised by this. I would have thought the Rays would let him play for a year to see that he really can perform in the majors. However, I think it's a great deal. Seventeen million over six years is pocket change to clubs today. More and more teams are understanding they can control costs with quality players by signing them young. Another reason to like the future of this franchise.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:08 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
April 15, 2008
Jeff Weaver Sighting
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There's word out of Milwaukee the Brewers signed Jeff Weaver. Is David Bush's ERA too low for them?

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:34 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
April 11, 2008
Gaining a Year
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The Tampa Bay Rays are about to call up Evan Longoria, giving him just enough time in the minors to prevent him from becoming a free agent until after his seventh season. He'll be a super-two, going to arbitration four years, but we now know the Rays were more interested in controlling him for an extra year than paying the arbitration bill.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:04 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
April 10, 2008
Fausto's Buying Lunch
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The Indians are about to sign Fausto Carmona to a contact that could be good for seven years:

A person familiar with the negotiations says Carmona's deal will be announced later in the day. The person spoke on the condition of anonymity because the contract has not been finalized.

The deal runs through 2011 and includes club options from 2012-2014.

The 24-year-old Carmona went 19-7 with a 3.06 ERA and emerged as one of the AL's top starters in 2007, one season after he went 1-10.

His signing gives the Indians protection in case they are unable to re-sign C.C. Sabathia, the defending Cy Young Award winner, who is eligible for free agency following this season.

I doubt that last sentence is really the reason. When the Indians recognize a good, young talent, they lock him up long term. That's been their M.O. since the early 1990s. It's what they did with Sabathia back in 2002 when they signed him to a four year deal, then picked up his option and extended him two more years.

Of course, the way C.C. started the season, the Indians may be happy to let him go via free agency.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 09, 2008
Roster Confusion
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Peter Abraham details the misinformation coming from the Yankees before the game tonight, including non-injuries to Ensberg and Kennedy. Kennedy did not start tonight because the weather is awful in KC and the Yankees didn't want him to start the game and then get rained out.

The Ensberg MRI is priceless.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:06 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 07, 2008
Good Young Player, Good Young Contract
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Jack Magruder reports that the Diamondbacks are about to extend Chris Young for five years:

With opening day festivities today, the D-Backs are expected to announce the deal Tuesday.

Young's contract, which buys out all his arbitration years and includes a team option on a year of free agency, is near the six-year, $31 million extension signed by Colorado shortstop Troy Tulowitski on Jan. 23, according to a league source.

Tulowitzki's contract is a record for a player with one-plus years of major league service time.

Young, 24, is tied for the major league lead with three home runs after becoming the first rookie in league history with 30 home runs and 25 stolen bases last season, when he had 32 homers and 27 steals.

Locking up young players through their arbitration years is very popular this season. It's a great, cost controlling move, especially if teams expect baseball's revenues to keep growing.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:19 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 05, 2008
Tiered Expirations
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The Blue Jays signed Alex Rios and Aaron Hill to long term deals Friday, locking them up to deals through 2014 and 2011 respectively. The money seems about right, too. Rios is good but not great. Ten million a year works, especially when he's a couple of years away from free agency, and he'll be declining by the end of the contract. Richard Griffin likes that the Blue Jays set their big contracts to expire in two sets:

The club is simplifying things. Now there are two different plateau years in which to rethink the roster and rebuild the payroll if they need new direction. The first key year is after 2010, when the contracts of Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett, B.J. Ryan, Scott Rolen and Scott Downs are set to expire.

Now, a second key season is 2014, when the contracts of Vernon Wells and now Rios and Hill come due. Instead of having long-term deals expire all over the calendar juggling budgets, the strategy for future young stars - for example, Dustin McGowan and Shaun Marcum - is that they can now be inked to deals that expire in 2014.

I don't know if this is really simpler. It seems to me it's tougher to deal with big turnover like that; it almost forces a team into a rebuilding mode. Of course, if the Blue Jays develop players capable of taking over at that point, they'll look really smart and be able to bring in a great free agent to complete the team.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:41 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
March 30, 2008
Roster Moves
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The Orioles released Gibbons and the Mets put a number of players on the DL, including Orlando Hernandez.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:58 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
March 25, 2008
Contract Official
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The Tigers and Miguel Cabrera made his new contract official today:

Cabrera's agent, Fernando Cuza, confirmed the contract is worth $153.2 million, which includes the one-year contract Cabrera had agreed to previously.

Asked his long-term career goals, Cabrera said, "The World Series."

I asked J.C. Bradbury and Mitchel Litchman in an email to clarify their positions on Cabrera's salary, and Mitchel now says he made a mistake in his calculations:

I think I screwed up in my post. When I looked at my database, I looked at the column for dollar value and not RAA (runs above average). His dollar value was 19 (million) in my chart and I thought I was looking at +19 runs above average.

So he is indeed worth 4-5 WAR, which is worth around 21.5 mil per season, based on 4.5mm per marginal win (plus minimum salary of .38mm).

An honest mistake. It's a very good deal for the Tigers.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:58 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Reed in the Wind
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The Chicago Cubs acquired Reed Johnson today. I wonder if they're concerned about Pie?

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:48 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
March 24, 2008
Two Views on Cabrera
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J.C. Bradbury at sabernomics.com loves the Miguel Cabrera deal:

As hard as this is to believe, given the contract size, this is an amazing deal for Dave Dombrowski and the Detroit Tigers. I have Cabrera valued at $268 million over this time period, and this accounts for his first two years of the deal being restrained by arbitration.

In the comments to this post, Mitchel Lichtman disagrees:

Just because that is what he MIGHT get, does not mean he is WORTH that. Whether a signing was good or bad should be based on what a player is worth, NOT what he is perceived as being worth by other teams. If a player is overrated, based on what he would likely get as a FA, and a team signs him for that, or even less, then it just means that that team overrated the player also - and consequently it was NOT a good deal.

Cabrera is overrated because of his poor defense (even though, unlike a player like Jeter, it is well-known that his defense is poor), and the fact that he plays a slightly below neutral (to the left in the spectrum) defensive position, and for other unknown (to me) reasons. His WAR value is 3.5 to 4 wins. That ain't worth 20 mil a year. More like 16-18.

For the last two seasons, Baseball Prospectus (subscription required) pegs his WARP1 at 9.6 and 8.2, and his WARP2 at 11.0 and 10.0. The Hardball Times has his Win Shares over bench at 21 and 18, or 7 and 6 wins. For the moment, I'm agreeing with Bradbury on this, although I'd love to see why MGL rates Cabrera so much lower than these other two measures.

You can receive a copy of Bradbury's book, The Baseball Economist: The Real Game Exposed, with a $75 donation to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:13 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
March 23, 2008
More on Cabrera's Contract
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Miguel Cabrera's contract is now being reported as a seven-year, $140 million extension beyond the deal he signed for 2008.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:47 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Filling a Hole
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Giants Cove looks at the upside and downside of claiming Jose Castillo. One one hand, he "improves our chances of acquiring the number 1 pick in 2009." On the other, he "brings the Giants one step closer to the 1962 mets."

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:52 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
March 22, 2008
Getting the Deal Done
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The Detroit Tigers lock in their trade prize for the next eight years.

Miguel Cabrera and the Detroit Tigers reached a preliminary agreement Saturday on an eight-year, $153.3 million contract extension, a source close to Cabrera told ESPNdeportes.com on condition of anonymity.

The All-Star third baseman will undergo a physical on Monday to complete the deal, the source said.

Wow. What a great deal. I would bet Miguel would get well over $20 million per year if he went the free agent route next year. We'll see what the final deal looks like Monday.

Hat tip, Bless You Boys.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:12 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
March 20, 2008
Locking Up the Next Ace
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The St. Louis Cardinals are on the verge of reaching a deal with Adam Wainwright:

For several weeks the Cardinals and Wainwright's representative have been discussing the framework of a multiple-year deal, and they continued to negotiate after the team unilaterally renewed his contract for the 2008 season. The guaranteed part of the new contract is four years and expected to be worth around $15 million, and it will buy out Wainwright's arbitration years, through 2011. The deal has an option that would cover the first two years of his free agency, sources said.

Good for Adam and the Cardinals. Like the Pirates, the Cardinals decided who was the best pitcher on their team right now and locked him in to avoid arbitration. If Carpenter can get healthy, the two will make a nice front of the rotation.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:19 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
March 06, 2008
No Renewal
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The Red Sox reached an agreement with Jonathan Papelbon, rather than renewing him for the minimum raise:

The Boston Red Sox and closer Jonathan Papelbon agreed Thursday to a $775,000, one-year contract, nearly doubling his salary.

That's the way it should be. Papelbon is a star for the Red Sox, and it's always good to keep your stars happy.

The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:32 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
March 03, 2008
High Hawpe
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It looks like the Rockies are about to extend Brad Hawpe.

The National League champion Rockies, locking up another of their homegrown players, are on the verge of signing right fielder Brad Hawpe to a three-year contract worth approximately $17.5 million.

This will replace the contract he signed recently.

The Baseball Musings Pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:09 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
February 28, 2008
Corpas Cash
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The Rockies sign another player cheap:

After only a half season as their closer, Manny Corpas agreed Thursday to an $8 million, four-year contract with the Colorado Rockies that could be worth up to $22 million if the team exercises options for 2012 and 2013.

The 25-year-old Panamanian right-hander replaced three-time All-Star Brian Fuentes as Colorado's closer last season. He played an integral role in the club's first World Series berth, where the Rockies lost to the Boston Red Sox.

Manny's strike out rate isn't the highest I've seen from a closer, but he only walks 2.3 batters per nine innings and keeps the ball in the park. If he can keep that up for another four years he'll be well worth the options.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:34 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Corpas Cash
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The Rockies sign another player cheap:

After only a half season as their closer, Manny Corpas agreed Thursday to an $8 million, four-year contract with the Colorado Rockies that could be worth up to $22 million if the team exercises options for 2012 and 2013.

The 25-year-old Panamanian right-hander replaced three-time All-Star Brian Fuentes as Colorado's closer last season. He played an integral role in the club's first World Series berth, where the Rockies lost to the Boston Red Sox.

Manny's strike out rate isn't the highest I've seen from a closer, but he only walks 2.3 batters per nine innings and keeps the ball in the park. If he can keep that up for another four years he'll be well worth the options.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:34 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
February 22, 2008
Winning by Losing
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Francisco Rodriguez lost his arbitration case with the Angels, but still ties the record for an arbitration away at $10 million. Unlike, Howard, however, Rodriguez faced his last season of arbitration as he moves to free agency next year. K-Rod has alternated great seasons with incredibly great season during his career, and he's due for an incredibly great one in 2008. That should net him a nice deal from some team next year.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:02 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 21, 2008
Star Power
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Balls, Sticks and Stuff figures out why Ryan Howard won his arbitration case:

But here's where Howard probably won his case: star-power. Consider Subsection 12 of Article IV, Section F, which lays out the admissible in an arbitration hearing [hat tip: One Chair]:
"the quality of the player's contribution to his club during the past season... This includes - but is not limited to - his overall on-field performance, his leadership abilities, and his public appeal..."

Howard is everywhere. He has a major endorsement deals with Subway and Adidas and graces the cover of video games and magazines. And don't forget, locally, the Phillies market the heck out of him too.

It's another reason for great players to be good to the press and good to the community. It could mean an extra $3 million.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:19 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Ryan Reaps
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Ryan Howard won his arbitration battle:

Ryan Howard has won his salary arbitration hearing against the Phillies, a baseball source told The Inquirer this morning.

He will make $10 million this season.

The Phillies had offered $7 million.

"We'll talk after," Howard said before the team's workout this morning at Bright House Field. "I've got to get dressed now."

Although $7 million was probably a good number to offer Howard, the Phillies did low ball him. My gut is that Howard played well enough over the last two years to at least earn enough as Cabrera when you factor in the increase in MLB revenue. I have no doubt the Phillies would have won if they offered $8 million.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:33 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
February 20, 2008
How to Negotiate
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Evan Grant praises the way the Ian Kinsler deal came about:

The negotiations took the entire offseason and there were some hurt feelings on both sides of the negotiations along the way. But in mid-January, Jon Daniels, Thad Levine and Kinsler's lead agent, Jay Franklin, put aside the tension that can build during protracted negotiations and put Kinsler first.

The Rangers probably didn't want to go above $20 million. The Kinsler camp probably wanted a guarantee closer to the $27 million that Brandon Phillips got from Cincinnati for four years. In the end, though, they reached a compromise that represents neither a "win" for the Daniels/Levine or for Franklin. What it does represent is a win for Kinsler and for partnership. Being willing to work as a legitimate partner will help the Rangers in negotiations with free agents more than any recruiting pitches or video presentations.

That's a great point. It's one Major League Baseball and the MLBPA should embrace when dealing with each other. They're partners, not adversaries.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:29 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 19, 2008
Better Management
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The Astros won their arbitration case against Mark Loretta:

The Houston Astros defeated former All-Star Mark Loretta in salary arbitration Tuesday, improving teams to 5-0 against players this year and clinching the 12th consecutive winning year for management.

I'm a bit surprised at this. With twelve straight seasons in which management has done better, isn't it about time for the players representatives to revisit how they handle arbitration cases? If I'm a player, and I see this record, I'm going to demand my side settle next year. Management clearly has a much better handle on what these players are worth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:19 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
February 15, 2008
Paying for Defense
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The Reds made Brandon Phillips a rich man as they avoid arbitration by signing him to a four-year contract with an option for a fifth season. He'll make $27 million over the first four years:

The 26-year-old infielder had a breakout season last year, when he joined Alfonso Soriano as the only second basemen in major league history to hit 30 homers and steal 30 bases.

Agents Sam and Seth Levinson negotiated the deal for Phillips, who wants to stay with the team that gave him a second chance by getting him from Cleveland in a trade. Phillips had asked for $4.2 million in arbitration, and the Reds had offered $2.7 million.

Phillips over his career isn't a great offensive player, but he led second basemen in PMR in 2007. His level of offense for a great defensive second baseman is just fine.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:55 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Bedard Under Contract
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The Mariners and Erik Bedard settled without arbitration, splitting the difference with a $7 million contract.

The two sides are believed to have already started negotiations on a long-term deal. General manager Bill Bavasi, who still has not had a contract go to arbitration since he joined the Mariners in 2004, indicated last week that the team was exploring a multiyear extension for the left-handed ace.

Given the amount of talent the Mariners traded for Bedard, the pitcher needs to be more than a two-year rental.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:35 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bad Year for the Players
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There have been four arbitration decisions so far, and the owners won all of them. I wasn't that surprised by the Valverde decision. There was a large gap between the two sides, Jose's had a bit of an up and down career. I thought Wang might win, because the two sides are close and you can point to certain pitching skills that Wang does extremely well (keeping the ball in the park). I'm still waiting to see what happens with Ryan Howard. I get the feeling the Phillies offered too little.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:53 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
February 11, 2008
One Year for Atkins
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The Rockies avoided arbitraton with Garrett Atkins, signing him for about $4.4 million. At the moment, at least, they are not going for a multi-year contract.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:32 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 10, 2008
No Boston Arbitration
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The Red Sox agreed to terms with Kevin Youkilis on a $3 million one-year contract. That clears the team's arbitration schedule.

Youkilis had come in far from the number offered by the team. He asked for $3.7 million, while the team offered $2.525 million. Last season the Red Sox ended up renewing his contract at $424,500.

That's decently below the mid-point.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:15 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
February 08, 2008
Giants Clear Cases
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The Giants signed Kevin Correia and won't go to any arbitration hearings this year.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:50 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 07, 2008
Royals Clear Arbitration
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The Royals signed Mark Teahen and Zack Greinke avoiding arbitration for 2008.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:50 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 05, 2008
Rios Inked
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The Blue Jays cleared their arbitration table by signing Alex Rios to a $4.8 million contract, well below the midpoint of the submitted numbers:

While the 26-year-old Rios is not eligible for free agency for another three years, Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi has expressed interest in signing him to a multiyear extension. On Jan. 25, Ricciardi said he had held "productive" talks with Rios' agent about a long-term deal.

I'm guessing Rios took the lower figure to pave the way for the multi-year deal. By my count, six teams are free of arbitration cases.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:33 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Great Headline
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Cubs f/x sums up the latest Cardinals move perfectly.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:56 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Two Plus Years for Sanchez
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The Pirates are about to sign Freddy Sanchez to a two-year deal with a vesting option for the third year:

For 2010, there will be a club option that would involve another raise if the Pirates exercise it, a buyout if they do not. But that comes with a large asterisk: If Sanchez performs at a certain level in the first two seasons of the contract -- believed to be based on a reasonable threshold of plate appearances -- a provision in the contract automatically triggers that option.

That year was known to be important to Sanchez, who was set to become a free agent after the 2009 season. This arrangement will allow the Pirates to retain his rights one year beyond that, even as it will offer Sanchez a vehicle to prove his worth independently.

Sanchez will earn about $19 million if the option kicks in. Not bad for a middle infielder who can hit. The problem with Sanchez is his age. His seasonal age for 2008 is 30, meaning the Pirates are just catching the end of the peak of his career. If the decline comes sooner than later, the Pirates are off the hook.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:26 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
February 04, 2008
A Grand Contract
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The Tigers lock up Curtis Granderson for at least five seasons. The Tigers buy out all three years of arbitration and his first year of free agency, with an option for the second. Another example of a team locking up a good, young player through the prime of his career. I haven't heard anything about money yet.

Update: ESPN reports the deal at a total value of $30.25 million.

It strikes me that these deals are going to end up distorting the free agent market. By keeping these players until they are starting their decline phases, not only are teams saving money now, they're saving their fellow owners money later. A 32-year-old free agent just isn't (or shouldn't be) worth the save as a 28-year-old with the same skills.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:39 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
February 03, 2008
Greene Gets the Green
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Khalil Greene agreed to a two year deal with the Padres, avoiding arbitration for the rest of his eligibility.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:26 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 02, 2008
Record Intact
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The Indians signed Casey Blake to a one-year contract, keeping their streak of not going to arbitration alive. The last time they went to a hearing was in 1991.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:47 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
January 31, 2008
Wilkerson an M
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According to USS Mariner, Seattle signed Brad Wilkerson. That probably means the Bedard trade is happening.

Update: Wilkerson gets $3 million for one year. I like Wilkerson and I hope he is healthy and rebounds from his last two down years.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:49 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
January 26, 2008
Cano's Contract
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Tyler Kepner reports the Yankees and Robinson Cano reached agreement on a contract. The Yankees buy out his four years of arbitration (he's a super two), and hold options for his first two years of free agency. Robinson is guaranteed $29 million, and the options bring the total to $55 million.

Most teams would rather have cost certainty with young players instead of dealing with the expense and hassle of annual salary arbitration. The Yankees have been an exception, usually preferring to wait until free agency forces them to guarantee long-term contracts.

This contract represents a shift in philosophy and a commitment to CanĂ³, 25, who has hit .314 since his promotion in May 2005. He hit .342 in 2006, and followed it up with 19 home runs, 97 runs batted in and a .306 average in 2007.

In the past, the Yankees felt they could afford to wait to see if the player really deserved a long term contract, because they had the money to spend. This route contains more risk, but is fiscally more responsible. And the Yankees are still fairly protected. They pay $7 million a year for a middle infielder who can hit. If for some reason he's done in that time, the last two seasons, in which the price tag doubles, never kicks in. And if he remains at this level over all six seasons, $9 million a year for that kind of performance is a very good deal.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:39 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
January 25, 2008
Long Term Twins
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The Twins lock of the heart of their batting order, signing Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer to long term contracts:

The Twins and Cuddyer have come to an agreement on a 3 year contract worth $24 million. Minnesota has also agreed to terms with first baseman Justin Morneau on a six-year contract (worth a reported $80 million).

I would have let Morneau go year-to-year to see if he could repeat the MVP season and used the money to keep Santana. Although $13 million a year for Morneau is a very good price.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:55 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
January 23, 2008
Done Deal
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The Rockies and Troy Tulowitzki finalized their six-year deal:

Tulowitzki gets $750,000 in each of the next two seasons, $3.5 million in 2010, $5.5 million in 2011, $8.5 million in 2012 and $10 million in 2013. The Rockies have a $15 million option for 2014 with a $2 million buyout.

You know, if I'm going to get that kind of money, I'd rather get the $5,000,000 a year. I'd probably want to pay the $5 million a year as well. If Troy does get injured, I'd rather pay $5 million for nothing that $10 million.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:29 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Long Term Incentives
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As rumored last night, the Tampa Bay Rays signed James Shields to a long term contract:

The 26-year-old right-hander, who has less than two full seasons of experience in the majors, agreed Wednesday to a $11.25 million, four-year contract.

Shields' deal includes three team options that could make it worth about $38 million over seven years. Performance bonuses could boost the value to approximately $44 million.

"This signing further signifies our commitment to building and sustaining a championship level team," Rays executive vice president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said. "We feel like Jamie is the kind of player and person who can help lead us to that goal."

Friedman said Shields' "talent, work ethic and character" were factors in the decision to take the unusual step of negotiating a multiyear deal even though the club's No. 2 starter was two seasons away from becoming arbitration-eligible and five years from free agency.

Note that the Rays only buy out the first two years of arbitration with this contract. The options are big, however, giving Shields incentives to pitch his best during the contract. The Rockies are doing the same with Tulowitzki, reportedly making his option year $15 million, which is a reasonable amount to expect from the free agent market at that point. It's a good way to structure the contracts, with the big pay day only kicking in if the player performs well.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:48 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
January 22, 2008
White Sox Signings
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The White Sox completed a two-year deal with Octavio Dotel and a four-year deal with Cuban Alexei Ramirez. I assume the Sox want Alexei to play second base.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:04 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
January 20, 2008
Money Well Spent
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I've seen the rumors the last few days, and now the Denver Post reports that a deal between the Rockies and Troy Tulowitzki is near.

In a deal first reported in The Denver Post, the Rockies and Tulowitzki have agreed to the parameters of a six-year, $30 million contract with a club option for a seventh season, the largest given a big leaguer with less than two years' experience.

It mirrors the contract structure given in 2006 to Cleveland Indians center fielder Grady Sizemore, who held the previous salary record at six years, $23.45 million with a club option. A source close to the Tulowitzki negotiations repeated this weekend that a deal "is close."

I love this deal. It pays Troy for his value during his best years. It shields the Rockies from inflation due to arbitration and free agency. If Troy's career path continues as we might expect, he would make more than $30 million in his three years of arbitration. And given the club option, the Rockies locked him up basically through his prime. This is exactly the way clubs should handle their budding stars.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:27 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
January 18, 2008
Going for a Record
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Ryan Howard is looking for $2.6 million more than Miguel Cabrera's $7.4 million record for a first year eligible player. Cabrera posted numbers of .331/.408/.564 in the two years leading up to his hearing. Howard's number the last two years are .292/.409/.623. Howard played in a better ballpark for hitters. We'll see if the arbitrator takes that into account, but my guess is the Phillies $7 million offer is going to be seen to be too low. If they offered $8 million, Philadelphia would have saved themselves $2 million.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:32 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Yankees Figures
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Peter Abraham has the arbitration figures for the three Yankees who got that far. Wang and the Yankees are just $600,000 apart, while they differ by $1.3 million on Cano.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:53 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Short Term Cabrera
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The Tigers and Miguel Cabrera avoided arbitration today as they settled on an $11.3 million deal.

The team is of course trying to sign him to a long term deal, and I wouldn't view this as an indication there are any problems on that front. This is a matter of taking care of arbitration business (Dombrowski just doesn't do arbitration). I'd venture a guess that the two sides are still working on a long term extension.

No doubt. Miguel is finding out the Tigers do things differently than the Marlins. They had no problem giving him a $4 million raise, and I'm guessing he'll get a lot more before the season starts.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:46 PM |