Peter Bernstein looks at the impact of opening day payroll on winning. The Athletics and Twins did the best over the last ten years, the Orioles and Tigers the worst. I do disagree with his take on the Yankees, however:

In the Yankees' case, despite their success and ability to get into position for title runs, they are in the bottom half of the league over the last 10 years in terms of wins per dollar spent. When they lock up Mark Teixeira at $180 million, a player whose stats are equal to or worse in many cases than Milton Bradley, who the Cubs just secured for a sixth of that total ... Well, you get the idea.

According to the chart, the Yankees are slightly negative in expected wins per salary. In other words, the Yankees got their money's worth. They weren't terribly efficient, but they didn't waste money either. The Twins and A's use young players effectively, but they're constantly rebuilding. The Orioles and Tigers didn't spend well on their stars. The Yankees get it just right; when they pay for a win, they get a win, no more, no less. Nothing wrong with that.

Peter Schmuck weighs in on the suspension of bargaining between the Orioles and Nick Markakis:

Both sides say they'll wait until they're closer to arbitration to resume bargaining. I think, in this uncertain economy, that's risky for both the player and the team. If you've read me over the years, you know I generally side with the player on this type of thing, and I think I am in this case, too. I just think Nick is playing a game of chicken with way more downside than up.

It looks like at the moment the Orioles are offering Markakis between $60 million and $65 million for six years. That buys out his first three years of free agency. Nick is a very good hitter and is just about to enter his prime, so we should see some improvement. I'd take $40 million for four years, then hit the free agent market at age 29 instead of 31. Nick should pull in a pretty good price tag at that point.

The only real downside for Markakis is arbitration. I suspect he'll do very well there, and if he has to take the Orioles that route three seasons in a row, he'll hit free agency right at 28, in the middle of his peak years. I bet the economy is a lot better then, and the long term contract he signs at that point make the current Orioles offer look weak. The only downside for Nick, in that case, is a career impacting injury.

The MLBPA reports that 2008 showed a slower growth rate in player salaries. I actually think stories like this help with the notion that teams should be able to weather the economic downturn. Earlier in the decade, the amount of baseball revenue going to players was in the high 50s. That's down to the low 40s now. Most teams should have room to maneuver.

Dustin Pedroia homers against the Astros
Photo: Icon SMI

I'll assume a $2 million raise each year, which would gross Pedroia between $30 and $36 million over those three seasons. And if indeed he continues to perform well through his peak years, he stands to command a $15 million salary in free agency come 2013. So in the five seasons Pedoria would hold some leverage, he'll receive $37 million from the Red Sox, whereas I believe he would earn at least $60 million.

That $15 million is a reasonable value. When Roberto Alomar became a free agent after the 1995 season, he received a three-year deal that was a little over one-half the value of Cecil Fielder's contract, the highest paid player at the time. Provided no one cracks the $30 million a year mark in the next four seasons, that would put Dustin on a par with Roberto.

I would not have agreed to the $11 million option year, however. Every year Pedroia waits to enter free agency after age 30 is a year in which he has a chance to decline. He's already traded $20 million dollars for a lifetime of security. If he's good after 2014, he'd make a lot of money with or without the option. If he's down, he won't make much anyway. The better bet there was on the high end.

Paul Hagen notes many young players are signing long term deals to secure their fortunes:

As Rays executive vice president Andrew Friedman put it: "Some guys prefer to secure at least their first fortune and put themselves in a position to go out and get even deeper in [owner Stuart Sternberg's] wallet."

That, apparently, is the way the Rangers players look at it. Kinsler said that he talked to Young at length before deciding to commit for $22 million over five seasons with just 2 years of big league service.

"A lot of people think Mike took a club-friendly deal [$10 million for 4 years, which he then parlayed into a 5-year, $80 million extension]," he noted this spring. "But the important thing was to make sure he had taken care of his family first and that he could concentrate on just playing baseball. Hopefully this illustrates ... that it's not about dollars."

Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard has been a notable exception to this way of thinking, of course. That doesn't make him wrong. Just that his approach is a little different than a lot of younger players these days.

I'd also argue that Howard isn't really that young. He's well into his peak years at seasonal age 28, because the Phillies kept him in the minors a long time. So unlike a lot of these youngsters signing long term deals, Ryan would be beyond peak at the end of a contract. If you sign a long term deal and hit the free agent market at 28, you're going to get a huge payday. If you hit it at 33, there's a good chance you won't do as well. Ryan's best bet for big money right now is arbitration, and that's the route he's taking.

Everyone on the Florida Marlins receives a salary below the major league average.

Boosted by his new deal with the New York Yankees, A-Rod tops the major league baseball salary list at $28 million, according to a study of contract terms by The Associated Press. The 33 players on the Marlins' opening-day roster and disabled list total $21.8 million.

"The Marlins? It's amazing," Rodriguez said. "And they still seem to find a way to be very competitive. They have a great pool of talent; they made some unbelievable trades, so they have great personnel people. To win two championships in 11 years, that's really admirable, and I'm very proud of that organization, being from Miami."

For the first time in baseball history, the average salary topped the $3 million mark. The 855 players on Opening-Day rosters and the DL averaged $3.15 million, up 7.1 percent from last year's starting average of $2.94 million.

The Marlins' highest earner doesn't even make the average. Pitcher Kevin Gregg tops the Marlins at $2.5 million.

That's just sad. I think Florida's finally reached the point where they are going to be about as uncompetitive as any team in baseball. St. Louis Browns bad.

Via River Ave. Blues, LoHud offers this interactive salary database. It should be a valuable research tool.

Dave Yeager contributed $50 or more to the Baseball Musings pledge drive and dedicates this post to his blog Soul Kerfuffle.

Are more young players complaining about their salaries this season? It started with Prince Fielder, but Cole Hamels, Jonathan Papelbon and to a certain extent Jeff Francoeur didn't like the offers contracts they received. After describing the contract as a "low blow," Hamels had this to say:

The Phillies are "very business-savvy," said Hamels, who is expected to be a "Super Two" player after this season. "When you know you can have a guy for a certain amount, why go up? I mean, truly. If you're running a successful business, I don't know why you really would."

But in the next breath, Hamels said he would remember this.

"That will affect down the line certain things that come up," he said. "You can't just all of a sudden throw everything out at [a player] at the last second and think that's really going to make him happy, because you still have checkmarks for what [the team] didn't do in the years before."

There's tension here because some teams, like the Indians and Rockies, recognize good talent at a young age and pay accordingly. Other teams, like the Phillies and Brewers are happy to go year to year. The players, however, are becoming more savvy as to their actual worth, and are starting to realize that the rules are screwing them out of money.

Remember, the MLBPA did not want full fledged free agency. They like the six-year limit for free agency because it keeps the supply of free agents low, so their salaries go higher. With more and more teams ignoring free agents building from within (see Yankees and Red Sox, this year), the great young player realize they are getting exploited so Gary Matthews and Carl Pavano can earn $10 million a year. If one of these four end up with a career ending injury, they've missed out on earning millions of dollars.

Major League Baseball would be better off making every player a free agent whenever his contract expired. That would keep the supply high and damp down salaries, but it would also benefit the great young players. It would change the compensation structure so players were paid for what they accomplished now, not in the past. If I were commissioner, I'd be using these four young men to push for such a deal.

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My latest column at SportingNews.com looks at which players are providing the least bang for the buck while playing under big money contracts.

Rich Lederer graphs team payroll versus wins for 2008 to see which teams spent efficiently. The NL West comes out as an interesting division, where the three low payroll teams did much better than their higher paid rivals.

On Baseball and Reds does a nice job creating a Google spreadsheet with salary commitments for the Reds over the next few years. As the graph makes clear, the Reds have lots of room to improve the team with free agents over the next few seasons if they decide to go that route, or signing young players to long term contracts.

A great idea, baseball player futures. These are intended to increase the pay scale of minor leaguers. Of course, you could solve this problem more easily by making all players free agents whenever their contracts expire.