Fantasy expert Matthew Berry of ESPN.com was kind enough to spend a few minutes with me talking about what he looks for in a fantasy player, including some examples of what does and doesn't make a good pick. You can hear the interview here.
If you like what you hear, check out Matthew's site on ESPN.com. You'll also find his Fantasy Focus podcast there, along with tons of free content.
The BBC World Service interview with Dan McLaughlin and myself can be heard here. They left a lot out for time purposes. I mentioned that at the end of the 1998 season, Bonds had about a 4% chance of breaking Aaron's record by the favorite toy, a little better than winning betting on a single number at roulette. And the point about Ruth I didn't get to finish was that the Babe went on a fitness regimen when he was in his early 30s and put up fantastic home run numbers when most players would be declining.
Correction: I was using the wrong formula to calculate the chance of Bonds breaking Aaron's home run record after the 1998 season. The correct gave Bonds a 0 probability of breaking the record at that point. Sorry for the error.
If you missed tonight's show, you can hear the recorded version here. It's also available on demand at TPSRadio. Tonight the AL East and NL West races are analyzed.
If you missed tonight's show, you can hear the recorded version here. It's also available on demand at TPSRadio. Tonight the NL Central race is analyzed.
If you missed tonight's show, you can hear the recorded version here. It's also available on demand at TPSRadio. Tonight the AL Central race is analyzed.
If you missed tonight's show, you can hear the recorded version here. It's also available on demand at TPSRadio. Listen while you're waiting for the game to start!
Here's the recap of yesterday's games. I'll once again make an appeal for video or pictures. If you attend an MLB game, send me a five second clip or still from your camera or cell phone and I'll use it in the show.
Update: YouTube is taking a long time to process the video, so here's a direct link.
This one took a long time to process, so I'm sorry it's late. Here's the link to the video, and since it's in .mov format it should download to iTunes. And here's the embedded video from YouTube.com.
Update: The graphics are unreadable. I tried using Adobe Premier 6.0 for this, since it allows for better graphics. Does anyone have experience with the software? What's the best way of saving the video for web playback? I'd like to keep it in QuickTime, since it can then be downloaded as a podcast. But if this is the quality I'm going to get, I'll go to another format.
Please excuse the quality of the video. I'm just testing to see if anyone would like a short summary of the day's games that you can download to your I-Pod. If you subscribe to Baseball Musings on I-Tunes, you'll get it automatically.
If you missed last week's show, you can hear the recorded version here. It's also available on demand at TPSRadio. (Sorry it took so long to post, I had disk space issues that took a while to resolve.)
There were server problems tonight, so the Baseball Musings Radio Show did not go out live. However, you can hear the recorded version here. It's also available on demand at TPSRadio.
This week I look at the hot players and teams of May, Roger Clemens talks pitching, and I explore the managerial talents of Buddy Bell and Felipe Alou, as well as what it takes to win as a pitcher at Coors.
If you missed my appearance on Sports Bloggers Live last night, you can hear the whole show, or just the baseball segment. We're discussing Mariano Rivera, Jake Peavy, Troy Glaus, Pat Burrell and Ichiro Suzuki.
Happy New Year to all the Musings Mavens! It's been a quiet week in baseball. Outside of New York and Arizona it looks like most GMs got a week to relax. The big news is that the Randy Johnson to the Yankees deal is on again. Once more, the Diamondbacks blinked and called the bombers to get the Big Unit moving again. From the Yankees point of view, the deal is very similar to three-way they tried to make with the Dodgers; the difference is that Arizona will get Brad Halsey instead of Eric Duncan along with Navarro and Vazquez. It's also likely that Vazquez and Navarro will be traded away once they are in the Diamondbacks possesion. Stay tuned. This deal fell apart once before, and it can happen again.
If it does go through, I'm sorry to see the Yankees trading another young lefty pitcher. They made that mistake with Al Leiter and Ted Lilly. In a few years they may need to trade for Halsey again, or pay him tons of money in the free agent market.
One thing is certain in the Bronx; Tino Martinez is a Yankee once more. The aging first baseman who hasn't had a good season since he left New York will be the insurance policy against Jason Giambi's health. With Womack at 2nd, there's not going to be a lot of offense from the right side of the Yankees infield if Tino plays everyday.
The other big rumor has Roberto Alomar playing second base for the Cardinals next season. As reported on this blog, Alomar was not able to play winter ball due to his September back injury. The Cardinals are only paying him half a million dollars. If he works out, it's a steal, but at this point in his career, I think the Cardinals could have done better with someone younger and even cheaper.
There was action in Cincinnati as Eric Milton signed a nice three-year contract that will pay him over $25 million. Eric says he's going to Cincinnati because he believes that they made the moves in the off-season that will help them win. The Reds need to improve a lot more than their record indicates, however. Cincinnati finished nine games better than their expected total given their runs scored and allowed. I have a feeling Milton is heading to Great American Ballpark because they gave him the best offer, not due to their diligence improving the club.
Finally, Sir Sidney Ponson got into a joust with some fellow Arubans over his jet skiing. A fight broke out and Ponson socked it to de judge, landing him in jail for Christmas. And New Years. Being a pitcher, you'd think he'd have a file hidden away that he could use to escape!
I hope 2005 brings your favorite team a championship and good luck to you!
Although the winter meetings ended early in the week, the action continued fast and furious as GMs signed free agents and constructed trades for both the present and the future.
Some big names moved this week starting with the top pitcher available, Pedro Martinez. The Mets became his sugar daddy agreeing to pay the fragile hurler more than $50 million over the next four years. There is speculation about the health of Martinez's shoulder, but for the 16 games he starts at Shea this season, I suspect the park will be brimming to capacity. Fannies in the seats means dollars in the Mets pockets.
The Red Sox countered by paying the rent; shortstop Edgar Renteria, that is. The NL star gets $10 million a year coming off a poor season. Why the Sox think he's that much better than Cabrera, I'm not sure. I guess they needed a shortstop real bad. They also picked up Matt Clement, one of the better starters on the market this season. Looks to me like they saved about $10 million dollars per year vs. signing Nomar last season and Pedro this off-season.
The Mariners opened up the vault as well, signing Richie Sexson to enough money to enjoy the champagne room for a long time. More importantly, they landed what I feel is the free agent of the off-season, Adrian Beltre. The Dodger third baseman had a breakout season at age 25, leading the majors in home runs. The Mariners are getting him right in his prime, and if 2004 was any indication, they're getting a great deal.
It's pretty clear that there is a change in the way the clubs view free agents this season. The worry about insurance companies only covering three years has vanished as four seasons seems to be the term of choice this off season. And the money is there. While there hasn't been anything like a Manny Ramirez or Alex Rodriguez contract yet, prices are definitely up this winter. And with Carlos Beltran lurking in the mist, we still don't know how the high clubs will go this round. Clearly, though, with a year of good attendance and the interest the Red Sox generated with their World Series win, the owners appear very confident about the state of baseball finances.
Plenty of players were changing teams via trades, too. The Brewers started the week off getting Carlos Lee from the White Sox. It's my opinion that Milwaukee made out well in this trade, as the White Sox got Scott Podsednik, who's best days are being him, and Luis Vizcaino, a pitcher prone to the gopher ball. US Cellular is a good park for long ball hitters. The Brewers are making good moves this off-season.
The Yankees, Dodgers and DBacks are in the middle of putting together one of the biggest deals I've ever seen. Ten players are involved to bring Randy Johnson to the Yankees. The deal has been sent to Bud Selig, so we'll hear in a day or so if it really goes through. Once again, however, the Yankees are trading what little future they have for a win this season.
The trades of the week, however, go to the master himself, Billy Beane. Beane had been quiet the last couple of seasons; he did pick up Jose Guillen at the trade deadline in 2003 and sent his catcher to the Padres last winter. This week, however, he made everyone take notice as he sent two of his three aces to the NL and gathered six talented youngsters.
Tim Hudson joins the Braves and will anchor the rotation along with bullpen refugee John Smoltz. Mark Mulder will look for the truth in St. Louis. In return, Beane gets two fireballing relievers, two young starters with great minor league stats, a super 19-year-old catching prospect and a great defensive outfielder who may turn out to be a pretty good hitter. As a reader commented, Beane appears to be stock-piling catchers. Since good offensive catchers are hard to find, it's not a bad idea. In the future, the Athletics will have the backstops to sell to fill their holes. It's great to see the master at work again.
Always willing to try new things, I'm exploring the world of podcasting. A couple of weeks ago, I tried my hand at a news of the week recording. It's something I plan to do more often. In the meantime, I met Ted Gilchrist at a blogger party in Cambridge, and mentioned that what I really need is a way to convert each entry into speech so they could be podcast without my spending time recording. Ted, as it turns out, has a tool for that and is now creating text-to-speech podcats of Baseball Musings.
This is a new feature I'm adding to Baseball Musings, an audio summary of the week's news that can be downloaded to your MP3 player via my RSS 2.0 feed and your aggregator.
The big news, of course, was steroids. I was one who had held out hope that the use of these drugs was not as widespread as was thought. I was wrong. Leaked grand jury testimony showed that Jason Giambi, Barry Bonds and others were on the juice. It's a sad day for baseball, but it also is an opportunity. For two long, the owners and players have been at odds over labor issues. But there appears to be a consensus among both the owners and the rank and file to deal with this issue. A partnership of trust between the two parties would help the game tremendously. Here's an opportunity to build that link. Let's have the owners and players (through the Union) sit down and hammer out an agreement on this issue.
There were other aspects to this story as well. The one that hasn't been touched on much by the press is the sleezy way Greg Anderson found clients. He would use his relationship with Barry Bonds to meet players, then ask them for a blood sample to test for mineral deficiencies. Somehow, he'd also test for illegal steroids. When he found those (as he did in the Giambi brothers) Anderson would then offer the dupes his undetectable drugs.
And it just shows the stupidity of some of these players. Here's a guy who looks for steroids in your blood without telling you, and you're going to trust him with your life? It seems most of the time the abusers didn't ask what drug they were given! No questions about side effects, long term damage, nothing. Just take the pills and get stronger.
Right up there on the sleeze meter are the people who leaked the testimony. This was to be confidential, like the major league drug testing. The leaks make this look more like a witch hunt against the players (especially Bonds) instead of a prosecution of the suppliers. I doubt the players will ever cooperate with a grand jury again.
What will happen to the cheaters? It doesn't appear there's any way to punish them by the league. Maybe teams can void contracts; but it looks like it's up to the fans. I wonder if anyone will bid on the balls if Barry Bonds passes Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron?
Until next week, this is David Pinto for Baseball Musings.