Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
March 23, 2004
Mo' Money

The Yankees and Mariano Rivera have reached a deal that will keep the closer in NY likely through 2007.

In his rookie year of 1995, Rivera gave up 11 HR in 67.0 innings (he started 10 games that year). Since, he has given up 26 HR in 582 2/3 innings. Mariano does the three things you want a pitcher to do well. He strikes people out (although at 8.1 per 9 IP he's not overpowering), he doesn't walk too many (at 2.5 per 9, he's no Eckersley) and he really doesn't give up HR (about 1 every 18 innings). Unlike most closers of this era, Rivera is willing to enter with the game on the line in the 8th. He's a special pitcher.


As he sat at his locker on Monday morning, carefully etching his name across the sweet spot of two dozen baseballs, Mariano Rivera had history on his mind. He asked a group of reporters if they thought Goose Gossage, the former Yankees closer, belonged in the Hall of Fame.

Yes, Gossage belongs in the Hall. And if you define a Hall candidate as greatest at a position over a sustained period of time, Rivera will belong also.


Posted by David Pinto at 07:53 AM | Pitchers | TrackBack (0)
Comments

I agree; Goose should be in Hall of Fame and Rivera will probably be also.

When rating the top 100 pitchers in baseball (up through 1999 season), Bill James (New Historical Baseball Abstract) included 5 relievers:

Dennis Eckersley - Hall of Famer, 298 Win Shares
Hoyt Wilhelm - HoFer, 256 WS
Goose Gossage - 222 WS
Bruce Sutter - 168 WS
Dan Quisenberry - 157 WS

Missing from this group is the only other HoF relief pitcher - Rollie Fingers, 188 WS. (If interested, you can read why B. James did not include Fingers in his list of top 100 pitchers on p. 917 in his book.)

Looking at WS and other data--for example, adjusting for ballpark effects, Wilhelm and Quis had ERAs that were 31% below league average; Sutter 26% lower, Goose 20% lower, Fingers 16% lower--it seems evident to me that Goose should definitely be in the HoF, and good cases can be made for Sutter and Quis also.

Mariano Rivera certainly is on a HoF path. He currently has 128 career WS (over 9 seasons, through 2003). If he continues to pitch near his current level so that he averages 15 WSs per season (slightly below his average for the past five seasons) over 5 more years, then he would have 203 career WS, fourth best all-time for relievers, and be a virtually certain HoFer. If however he retires after 3 years, or has a significant drop-off in his effectiveness (as he did in 2002) then his career WS would be in the range of non-HoFers Sutter and Quis. Would this make it more difficult to get in the Hall? I don't know. Of course, Rivera has the benefit of "being a Yankee" and "having rings" (see Rollie Fingers) that are not figured into performance statistics, and thus he could well be elected to the HoF regardless.

Posted by: eric at March 23, 2004 11:41 AM

How big is your hall?

Posted by: Danil at March 23, 2004 12:08 PM

How big is your hall? Just check out Mo's postseason career:

61 games, 0.75 ERA, 7-1, 30 saves, 96 innings(!), 60 hits, 12 bb's, 77 k's.

That's just sick; ridiculously, obscenely, grossly sick. In my mind, that postseason record is enough to put him in any Hall, no matter what size.

Posted by: Daniel at March 23, 2004 12:41 PM

Maybe he belongs, but your definition should read "greatest in his role," not "greatest at a position." Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez compete in the latter category.

Posted by: Keith L. at March 23, 2004 04:28 PM

Just a question: Would sabremetricians be falling all over themselves to congratulate Cincinnati, Seattle or Baltimore for spending $10 million per for a closer, even a Rivera-class closer? Or does this attitude apply only to the YankSox?

Posted by: Gene at March 23, 2004 08:03 PM

Danil,

My research on relief pitchers (see URL) found that Rivera is the third most valuable all-time behind Wilhelm and Gossage. The only two things that might bar him from the Hall are one year of eligibility (he only has 9 and 10 are required) and people's ignorance. David is absolutely correct.

Posted by: Mike at March 23, 2004 10:41 PM

I didn't suggest that David isn't correct - I ** asked ** how big is hall of fame is.

100 players (close to the number honored by the BBWAA, also close to the number in the VHOF)? 210 players (Cooperstown, with the picks from other committees)?

About 1/3 of those are pitchers (I didn't check the committee choices to see if the ratios hold, but BBWAA and VHOF agree - and that seems reasonable to me). So are Rivera supporters suggesting that he is one of the top 30 pitchers, or one of the top 70 pitchers, in the history of the game?

I concede that he will probably be inducted by the BBWAA when the time comes.

Posted by: Danil at March 24, 2004 09:21 AM

I have to agree with Daniel. Rivera's postseason accomplishments add whatever you could possibly suggest is missing from his regular season totals. No matter how you look at them, you are just-this-shy of forced to conclude that he is the greatest postseason pitcher of all time, no?

Posted by: John at March 26, 2004 01:54 AM