Prosecutors in the Barry Bonds case are appealing the decision to not allow evidence in the case because Greg Anderson won't testify. It may be another year before the trial begins:

Unlike California state judges who must rule within 90 days on most matters before them or risk missing their paychecks, federal judges move at their own pace with no time limits placed on their deliberations.

That makes predicting how quickly -- or slowly -- the appeals court will act on the Bonds case a matter of conjecture. Legal analysts have said the appellate court could take as little as two months to more than a year to send the case back to U.S. District Court Judge Susan Illston, who would then need several more weeks or months to schedule and start another trial.

According to the latest figures available from the Administrative Office of the United States Courts, it took the 9th Circuit an average of 12.7 months in fiscal 2007 to decide criminal cases, slightly longer than the national average of 12.1 months. The 9th Circuit's performance in 2007 was an improvement over the average of 13.8 months in 2006 and 14 months in 2005.

Davey Johnson should invite Barry to play for team USA in the WBC, now that he'll be free for the rest of the month. After all, they have the strictest drug testing in the world.

Lone Star Ball examines how the cell phone has destroyed the sitcom. He uses as examples a number of Senfeld episodes that could never happen today, because a cell phone call solves the delimma of the half hour.

On the other hand, The Office uses the cell phone to great comic effect. Of course, that show is written by a former baseball blogger...

Nationals Journal gives us an early look at Sunday's Boswell column, focusing on Adam Dunn:

Baseball has Dunn backward. On the outside, he may have no image. "I wish I had one," he said. He's just jeans and semi-combed hair, a guy lying on the clubhouse floor because the stools are too small, joking with new teammates, looking like a beached sea mammal.

On the inside, he's a student of hitting, a man who plays hurt, averaging 158 games the last five years, and a Texan who's too proud to show he's hurt. His hitting statistics at age 29 resemble Reggie Jackson and Harmon Killebrew, surpass Mike Schmidt. But his words show how much the last few weeks have lit his fire.

"So far in my career, I have not even come remotely close to what I can do. I know I'm so much better than what I've done," Dunn said. "Between now and the end of my career, I have a lot of work to do."

The article continues with a comparison to Frank Howard, and notes Dunn's exquisite selectivity at the plate. I think Boz understands that Dunn can be a special hitter for Washington.

Juan Cruz finds a job, landing a two-year deal with the Kansas City Royals. He's posted high strikeouts and low ERAs the last two seasons with the Diamondbacks. His walks are a bit high, but they haven't hurt him much in terms of allowing runs. I'm surprised he stayed on the market this long.

The Yankees are being careful with Jorge Posada, who suffered some shoulder soreness:

Accounts of the injury differed slightly between the manager and the player. Girardi said Posada woke up Saturday morning with a little soreness. Posada said he hurt it Thursday in the on-deck circle while stretching before his first at-bat in his first exhibition game.

"I wasn't thinking," Posada said. "I grabbed a bat and go back all the way, and I wasn't supposed to do that. I felt it in the shoulder. I didn't know I wasn't supposed to do it. I kept playing, and there was nothing wrong."

He'll take a couple of days off to see how it feels.

The New York Times profiles Billy Eppler, the Yankees top scout for professional talent. Billy likes to stay in the background, so you may not have heard of him. There seems to be some confusion as to his stance on stats:

Yet Eppler emerged as a supporting player in "The Yankee Years," the book by Joe Torre and Tom Verducci that chronicles Torre's 12 seasons as manager. It is not a flattering portrayal. Eppler is presented as a "stats guru" and symbol of a front office that, to Torre, ignored the heartbeat of the game.

Cashman has not discussed Torre's book, and Eppler would not comment on it specifically. But the notion that statistics guide Eppler is inconsistent with his background and passion.

"Unfortunately in this game, if you're under the age of 35 and you didn't play in the big leagues, it's kind of easy to get classified," said Eppler, who pitched for the University of Connecticut until a shoulder problem ended his career. "And it's fine, I understand, but it's not something I'm real versed in."

Cashman has a statistician, but it is not Eppler. Michael Fishman, 30, is the Yankees' director of quantitative analysis, filtering reports from scouts, trainers and staff -- "plus every statistic pipeline that you have," Cashman said -- through a program the Yankees designed.

"Is Billy a stats guy? No, and I joke with him about it," said Bill Schmidt, the Colorado Rockies' vice president for scouting. "But does he use it as a tool? We all do. Billy is a well-rounded scout, and any well-rounded scout is going to look at stats."

He does understand OBA:

As much as Eppler is a product of the Rockies' executive factory -- which has spawned the future general managers Josh Byrnes, Jon Daniels and Michael Hill -- he is a descendant of Livesey's.

They would talk about tools, Eppler said, and, yes, statistics. One day in 2003, the year Michael Lewis's book "Moneyball" was published, Livesey asked Eppler what he considered a good on-base percentage. Eppler answered .360. To his delight, Livesey agreed.

"From that point forward, if he was in the park, I was sitting next to him," said Eppler, who still relies heavily on Livesey's advice.

The story is well worth the read.

Alex Rodriguez's drug of choice is disappearing from the Dominican Republic:

"Primobolan is not imported by Dominican pharmaceutical agencies, but you can get it without problem in the underworld of steroids," said Milton Pinedo, head of the anti-doping program for the Dominican Olympic Committee.

Local bodybuilder Manuel Feliz said the steroid has been getting harder to find since A-Rod's remarks.

"Primobolan is used very frequently in the country's gyms, but since it was linked with the name Alex Rodriguez, it started disappearing from the market," Feliz said.

I wonder why? Is the government cracking down on that particular drug, or did users not know there was a test for it?

The last few days I've been working with the pitch f/x data, with the idea of applying some kind of probabilistic model to the strike zone. I started with a very simple model to learn how to get around the data and to prove the concept.

My initial model looks at the chance of positive and negatives outcomes for pitchers. A negative outcome is a called ball, or a ball in play resulting in a hit. Positive outcomes are all others. I divide the X and Z axes into three inch lengths, and look at the results when a ball passes through the defined three by three area. I use the following formula for the x coordinate:

round((12*(p.px+12))/3, 0)

Where p.px is the distance from the center of the plate in feet. The plus twelve makes everything positive. This makes 48 the center of the plate.

For the Z axis, I use the same formula, substituting p.pz for p.px. In this case 48 represents the ground. The computed px and pz together then define a zone. Some will be in the strike zone, some will be out, and some will be on the edge, both in and out of the zone.

I then build the model based on the computed px, pz, and the batter side (left or right). It's the number of positives in the zone divided by the total number of pitches in the zone. The following two tables show the model for zones with at least 200 pitches.

Due to the formatting of the blog, it's easier to read this at the permalink.

Right-handed Hitters,2007-2008

Strike Zone, Catcher View	40	41	42	43	44	45	46	47	48	49	50	51	52	53	54	55	56
66	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	.127	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
65	-	-	-	-	.143	.166	.228	.256	.243	.201	.206	-	-	-	-	-	-
64	-	-	-	.158	.219	.288	.350	.337	.377	.327	.268	.212	.120	.054	-	-	-
63	-	-	.106	.211	.331	.411	.485	.519	.530	.465	.401	.290	.177	.100	-	-	-
62	-	.084	.188	.275	.425	.557	.673	.719	.719	.669	.600	.431	.267	.142	.059	-	-
61	-	.084	.240	.359	.592	.748	.822	.854	.864	.848	.800	.689	.448	.204	.099	.046	-
60	-	.092	.257	.423	.701	.822	.870	.879	.885	.893	.895	.830	.619	.312	.143	.082	-
59	.062	.116	.254	.484	.728	.859	.868	.856	.862	.874	.893	.859	.685	.341	.197	.102	.045
58	-	.140	.279	.504	.753	.842	.859	.857	.863	.862	.873	.870	.721	.416	.184	.108	.037
57	-	.151	.248	.497	.716	.826	.850	.838	.859	.863	.874	.863	.689	.371	.169	.119	.075
56	-	.107	.257	.441	.668	.769	.785	.825	.835	.848	.853	.800	.579	.321	.196	.123	.060
55	-	.085	.235	.348	.509	.613	.663	.685	.719	.711	.699	.593	.420	.257	.203	.101	.095
54	-	-	.165	.272	.372	.445	.444	.500	.488	.488	.448	.380	.288	.210	.142	.126	.065
53	-	-	-	.257	.304	.340	.362	.398	.380	.389	.321	.306	.246	.203	.156	.109	.076
52	-	-	-	.136	.220	.259	.286	.290	.325	.312	.310	.243	.231	.178	.138	.112	-
51	-	-	-	-	-	.212	.254	.211	.239	.242	.247	.226	.180	.128	.096	.069	-
50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	.169	.196	.222	.142	.146	.126	.094	-	-

Left-handed Batters

Strike Zone, Catcher View	40	41	42	43	44	45	46	47	48	49	50	51	52	53	54
65	-	-	-	-	-	.148	-	.156	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
64	-	-	.015	.078	.121	.234	.288	.344	.414	.313	.303	-	-	-	-
63	-	.045	.062	.094	.211	.319	.468	.538	.557	.543	.428	.337	.218	-	-
62	.024	.020	.090	.196	.376	.526	.616	.695	.697	.687	.589	.462	.301	.173	-
61	.016	.039	.112	.298	.610	.792	.837	.827	.850	.838	.773	.603	.396	.168	-
60	.021	.074	.193	.481	.773	.895	.879	.883	.877	.858	.855	.693	.513	.270	-
59	.055	.126	.267	.570	.843	.883	.882	.877	.861	.840	.858	.790	.551	.287	.169
58	.055	.120	.266	.618	.860	.886	.877	.863	.838	.847	.836	.760	.536	.290	.184
57	.042	.104	.289	.590	.849	.872	.868	.843	.851	.847	.848	.768	.525	.277	.151
56	.077	.111	.269	.514	.780	.858	.854	.833	.822	.831	.784	.651	.458	.289	.126
55	-	.130	.189	.380	.583	.670	.709	.713	.705	.658	.600	.520	.338	.263	.168
54	-	.098	.168	.284	.353	.437	.478	.501	.479	.463	.456	.383	.303	.205	.094
53	-	-	.141	.206	.280	.330	.387	.387	.427	.354	.342	.298	.205	.211	-
52	-	-	-	.197	.209	.261	.331	.316	.348	.311	.251	.223	.250	-	-
51	-	-	-	-	.222	.270	.236	.255	.282	.267	.197	.182	-	-	-
50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	.181	.168	.192	.190	-	-	-	-

I actually thought there would be a bigger difference between throwing the ball down the middle of the plate versus throwing on the edges. Pitchers do a bit better to the catcher's right, regardless of batter handedness. Up in the zone is better for pitchers than down in the zone, at least over the heart of the plate.

Of course, the problem with the look at the data is that an out counts just as much in the pitcher's favor as strike one called. There are many other parameters to take into account, including speed and break. This is just a start.

Correction: I fixed the table vs. LHB. When I ran the script that creates the table, I only changed the hand in one of the two queries.

Johan Santana's elbow isn't getting any better, and now there's a report he might miss opening day. I'm waiting to hear about the trip to Doctor Andrews.

I suppose the Yankees and Red Sox not trading for Johan might end up looking pretty good.

The Nationals sent Mike Rizzo to fix things in the Dominican Republic, and he put their players in a new facility in three days:

While in the Dominican, Rizzo visited that facility - which the team had rented from recently fired employee José Rijo. After scouting eight new locations, he settled on a complex in Boca Chica. The 2-1/2 fields at the new site are "gorgeous," Rizzo said, and the eight pitching mounds are "beautiful," and the players will be housed in a "beautiful resort," three to a room, with "air conditioning, cable TV, bathroom, four meals a day, 24-hour security." Washington's prospects were "exuberant" about the relocation, and received a pep talk about making it to the United States and helping the Nationals win a World Series.

"It's something that doesn't compare to anything I've ever done," Rizzo said on Friday. "It was - when we landed today, I said, 'Do you believe what just happened?' "

That success moves him up the ladder as a likely replacement for Jim Bowden.

If they ever make a movie about this, Harvey Keitel should play Rizzo:

Manny Ramirez noon deadline was for a counter offer by Boras. The two sides now seem to be squabbling not over contract size or length, but deferred money. That's a small difference and now I believe a deal will get done, but who knows when. There's a great Colletti quote at the post.

John Bale returned to Kansas City to have hit thyroid examined:

"There were irregularities in his blood work," manager Trey Hillman said. "It's a problem dealing with his thyroid."

Bale was limited earlier in camp by soreness in his left shoulder blade. He resumed throwing this week and appeared to be on track to resume a regular routine.

Here's to a speedy diagnosis and recovery for Mr. Bale.

Brandon Webb was scratched from his start with a sore forearm. That's Johan Santana and Webb scratched this week with minor injuries. That's a pair of aces causing their fans a bit of worry.

Greg Anderson refuses to testify.

Dodger Thoughts rounds up the latest Manny Ramirez news as dawn breaks on the west coast. It appears there is a noon deadline for Manny and the team to reach an agreement. That seems to be a bit of a backtrack from the "starting from scratch" statement made last night:

Twelve hours ago, it looked as if the Dodgers had achieved the public relations moment that would make everyone forget about Jamie McCourt's ill-conceived "50 fields" remark. Now, one is tempted to wonder whether Thursday night's release will make that gaffe look minor in comparison.

But let's give ourselves at least until low noon before rendering a verdict.

Stay tuned.

The Phillies released Adam Eaton. Tim Malcolm believes Eaton's failure taught the Phillies a lesson about signing marginal pitchers.

Richard Durrett predicts a good year for Kevin Millwood. The Bill James projections are close on ERA, while Chone and Marcel are not that forgiving. With the offense in Texas, an ERA in the low fours should win Kevin more than he loses.

In the wake of Manny Ramirez's rejection of the latest Dodgers offer, I wonder if Manny might get himself in a downward spiral of offers. Los Angeles withdrew a $45 million offer, and as far as we know, there are no other firm offers on the table. Why would a team bid more at this point?

Let's say another team offers Manny a one-year, $20 million deal. I assume Ramirez would reject that as well, and the team that offers says, we're out of the running. As the season approaches and Manny wants a job, other teams might step up with less money.

At some point it might reverse, as Manny's price becomes low enough to actually spark some bidding. Maybe that's the mistake a number of free agents made this winter. They started asking for too much money, and not many teams were interested. Maybe at a lower starting point, more teams would take a look at a player, and the competition might actually bid up the price. When, as in Manny's case, the asking price was too high, there's nowhere to go but down. Manny is the housing market.

Joe Brescia runs down the players who lost significant weight this off-season.

Jon Weisman posts the Dodgers statement that Scott Boras rejected their offer for Manny Ramirez:

"We love Manny Ramirez," said Dodgers Owner Frank McCourt, "And we want Manny back, but we feel we are negotiating against ourselves. When his agent finds those 'serious offers' from other clubs, we'll be happy to re-start the negotiations.

"Even with an economy that has substantially eroded since last November, out of respect for Manny and his talents, we actually improved our offer.

"So now, we start from scratch."

I take it Manny won't be getting any more $20 million a year offers. Jon goes on:

It's interesting to note that the Dodgers aim their venom at Boras, even though ostensibly Boras is working for Ramirez. Of course, the natural explanations for this are 1) the Dodgers need to stay on Ramirez' good side in the event he does end up with the team, and 2) doubt about who's boss in the Boras-Ramirez relationship.

That is one of the jobs of an agent, to take all the abuse so the client doesn't need have his relationship soured. It's in fact, one of the best reasons for having an agent. The boss can scream and yell as much as he wants at your representative, but a good one never tells the client that. You just hear how much they love you.

The Dodgers believe they called Boras's bluff. We'll see if that's true soon. I'd really love to see the Giants swoop in and sign Manny now. That would make the NL West a lot more interesting.

Jim Bowden still has his job, but, "They're Just Making Bowden Endure As Much Pain As Possible." The Washington Post summary of the Nationals scandal notes Jose Rijo owned the diamonds used by the club in the DR and rented them for $40,000 a month. There seems to be just a bit of a conflict of interest there.

Micah Owings says he feels fine after pitching Thursday:

The Arizona Diamondbacks shut down Owings the last two months due to a shoulder injury, and when he was acquired in the Adam Dunn trade, he did nothing but pinch-hit for the Reds.

"Everything felt good for the first time -- my arm felt good, which is the most important thing. I was able to pitch an inning and then go back out.

"After not pitching for so long and doing all the rehab, you are a little unsure going back out. I've never had an arm issue, but I was fine."

I wonder if Owings will DH during interleague games.

Bank of America decides not to sign a big advertising deal with the Yankees, as the economy even hurts the big teams. The money they would have made from the deal likely would have paid the yearly salary of one of their superstar players.

Update: It looks like the deal was worth more like $10 million a year, so half a superstar. :-)

The Rocky Mountain News is closing its doors. I'll make Tracy Ringolsby the same offer I made Murry Chass; he can come write for Baseball Musings. The pay will be lousy, but I suspect he'll add a lot of readers to the site.

Center Field posts a photo in which David Ortiz looks downright slender. He's not skinny, but fit and trim. That should scare the opposition a bit.

The media wants access to the jury questioners filled out in the Bonds perjury case. I've never heard of the press getting those before. Does someone know if that's a usual request in big cases? If I were a potential juror, I'd decline to fill it out for fear my name would be linked to the trial, and something I wrote was misconstrued.

Playboy's Jonathan Littman once again takes on Jeff Novitsky and his prosecution of Barry Bonds. Littman once again paints Novitsky as the evil person in this drama:

A hearing was scheduled. Novitzky's credibility was on the line. In October 2004 he filed a sworn declaration in Judge Illston's court stating that my Playboy article "falsely stated that agent White overheard me discussing getting a 'book deal' in connection with my involvement in this case. This is untrue. I have never had such a discussion with anyone and have never had any involvement with a 'book deal' in connection with this case or any other."

Rains deployed a detective to track down Iran White and learn the identity of the two San Mateo task-force agents who had also heard Novitzky talk about his hope to participate in a book deal. According to The New York Times, the lawmen talked to Rains and told him Novitzky had engaged in a host of improper, if not illegal, acts ranging from tipping off the media to the BALCO search to falsifying investigative reports and his plans to participate in a book or movie deal.

The government dragged its heels in turning over discovery to the defense, until finally Judge Illston ordered it to disclose the secret investigation of Novitzky to defense counsel by May 25, 2005. The government sent the full 150-page report by Federal Express on May 31. With a hearing set for June 7, Conte and his lawyers knew they had struck gold. If made public, the investigation of Novitzky could destroy his credibility and scuttle the government's chance to prosecute Bonds and the other key targets.

With the Bonds trial starting soon, the whole article is well worth the read. Remember, however, you are clicking through to Playboy, so be careful if you're at work.

Hat tip, Giants Win.

BABIP for pitchers as a group over the years is always lower at home than on the road.

Brian Cashman speaks to the NY Times on A-Rod's PED smuggling cousin picking up Rodriguez yesterday:

"It's been handled," he said.

I get the feeling that if some club were to offer the Yankees a bag of balls and be willing to take over the contract, Cashman just might trade A-Rod to lose the headache.

Johan Santana has a sore elbow, but Jerry Manuel says it's no big deal:

Manager Jerry Manuel told the website that the problem is "nothing abnormal" for Santana, and that Santana instead would throw a side session Friday. Santana had offseason knee surgery, which might have affected his throwing program and contributed to the elbow discomfort.

I'm sorry, no one wants to hear "Santana", "elbow" and "discomfort" in the the same sentence. We've seen nothing to worry about turn into Tommy John surgery too often.

Via The Big Lead, Time Magazine talks to Rick Helling, who warned the MLBPA about steroid use back in 1998:

That same winter, with the party raging at full throttle, one man rose up and basically announced the whole damn thing was a fraud. Rick Helling, a 27-year-old righthanded pitcher and the players' representative for the Texas Rangers, stood up at the winter meeting of the Executive Board of the Major League Baseball Players Association and made an announcement. He told his fellow union leaders that steroid use by ballplayers had grown rampant and was corrupting the game.

"There is this problem with steroids," Helling told them. "It's happening. It's real. And it's so prevalent that guys who aren't doing it are feeling pressure to do it because they're falling behind. It's not a level playing field. We've got to figure out a way to address it.

"It's a bigger deal than people think. It's noticeable enough that it's creating an uneven playing field. What really bothers me is that it's gotten so out of hand that guys are feeling pressure to do it. It's one thing to be a cheater, to be somebody who doesn't care whether it's right or wrong. But it's another thing when other guys feel like they have to do it just to keep up. And that's what's happening. And I don't feel like this is the right way to go."

At that point, the union could have cleaned this up on their own. They could have instituted testing, kept it quiet, pushed doping out of the sport. They chose to ignore the problem, as they were making too much money at the time.

Ryan Feierabend may need season ending surgery. So far in his career he's been a much better minor league than major league pitcher, so there was some hope for him maturing. That is going to be put on hold.

Jose Rijo was officially fired from the Nationals today, along with most of the coaches from Washington's Dominican program. Still no word on Jim Bowden.

Josh Bard did not let a Tim Wakefield pitch get by Wednesday night.

Yesterday, Andruw Jones's hitting received a good review, now Kris Benson pitches well for Texas:

Signed to a minor league contract Saturday, Benson, who is coming off rotator cuff surgery, hasn't pitched in the majors since 2006. He needed only seven pitches to end the first inning, but allowed a long home run to designated hitter Billy Butler in the second before inducing a double play to end his outing.

"I felt great. I haven't felt this good in three years," Benson said. "My velocity is getting up there where it used to be. I feel really comfortable. I made the one mistake where I kind of left that slider over the middle of the plate."

Texas always seems to be in need of arms. Benson might be a fresh one who can help them out. It's possible Texas gets two decent players for not a lot of money out of their deals.

I'll be covering the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference for the third year in a row on Saturday, March seventh. I've also been asked to participate in the Baseball Analytics Panel, with a group of true heavy hitters. This may be your only chance to see Mark Cuban and me in the same conference!

The Dodgers still have a two-year, $45 million offer for Manny Ramirez, but now we appear to know more details:

The Dodgers have made another offer to Manny Ramirez, a two-year deal calling for $25 million this season and $20 million for the next -- providing the slugger chooses to exercise the second-year option.

The player option on the second year came at the request of Ramirez's agent, Scott Boras, said a source with knowledge of the situation who did not have authority to speak publicly.

The Dodgers will now wait to hear back from Boras, who will be carrying the offer to his client.

That's pretty much where we started back in early days of this free agent season. I guess if Manny plays well and rehabilitates his image, he'll opt out and try to get a better deal next year. If he thinks the market is still bad, or sees his abilities decline, he can walk away with $20 million next season.

For everything he did to get away from the Red Sox and out of his team options, he may end up with only a $5 million raise over two years. I wonder if Manny thinks it was worth it.

Kerry Wood's back is sore.

The Washington Nationals scandal keeps on giving. Washington officially fired Jose Rijo, and they are closing down their baseball academy in the Dominican Republic.

To paraphrase Chevy Chase, a frustrated DR could not be reached for comment.

We're still waiting for Bowden's head to roll.

I just received an email that The Bill James Gold Mine 2009 is ready to order. That of course reminds me you may want to stock up on your baseball books, like The Hardball Times Season Preview 2009 and Baseball Prospectus 2009: The Essential Guide to the 2009 Baseball Season.

No team wanted to pick up Andy Marte, so Cleveland gets to keep him and send him back to the minors.

Major League Baseball will no longer publish a hard copy of the Red and Green books. For those of you who never came across one of these, they were one of the staples of baseball researchers before computerized stats came along. For me in the 1990s, they were my source for who was a rookie and how much service time each player had earned.

They are, however, obsolete. All this information is available online, and is updated daily. I can't argue with the decision.

Furman Bisher speculates on what led Andruw Jones to the Rangers:

You have read, of course, of Jeff Francoeur's reconstructed batting form this spring. He has kept to himself about how he went about it, with whom he worked and how he went about the project with such confidence and secrecy. He had his personal reasons, all critical to reviving his career after the dismal season just completed. There is a hitting coach with the Rangers, Rudy Jaramillo, who has developed quite a colony of followers around the major leagues. Jaramillio is in his 19th season with the Rangers, and in his time he has been a factor in the development of Alex Rogriguez, Rafael Palmiero, Michael Young, Mark Teixeira and other major leaguers who have blossomed there.

My conclusion: Francoeur could have opened the door for Jones, put him on line with Jarmillo and thus, set him on the road to Surprise. Something along the line of magic has taken place. Both Jones and the Rangers are so pleased with developments that they have settled on a contract. Andruw has signed for a base salary of $500,000, with incentives that could lead to $1-million.

Andruw is still young enough to recover from his horrible 2008. Maybe this will be the steal of the winter.

Boof Bonser's surgery revealed a torn rotator cuff, and he'll likely miss the entire 2009 season.

Paul Sullivan uses Game 7 of the 1987 World Series to make a case for instant replay to help with controversial decisions. His best argument, however, comes from the 2009 Super Bowl:

Wasn't it better to know for sure that Santonio Holmes made that incredible catch to win the game? Will anyone remember there was a delay to review the tape?

OF COURSE NOT! They'll remember the play!

Imagine if the ref said "No Catch!"

The Arizona Cardinals would have won the Super Bowl.
And anyone who mentions that would say "Well, the Steelers actually did."

The home runs replays seem to work well. If people get used to that, eventually they'll want other close calls looked at in more detail.

Mark DeRosa hit the first home run I've seen this year, a three-run shot against the Giants. I was reading a criticism of Nate Silver's Alex Rodriguez home run projection (hat tip RAB) and heard the bat hit the ball. It's amazing how you can tell a well hit ball by the sound off the bat. It's nice to hear that again.

As for Rodriguez, I've pointed out on this site that young home run hitter tend to flame out. If you look at the age 30 leaders, only Griffey (2nd) and Aaron (9th) made it over 600, and Ken did while flaming out. Alex finished his age 32 season in 2008, and he's over 100 homers ahead of both Aaron and Ruth. If A-Rod doesn't hit a home run for two years, he'll still be the all-time leader through age 34. Bonds is the only 600 home run hitter not in the top seven.

The Favorite Toy gives Alex a 49% chance of breaking the record. That's very good odds at his age. Three more good years and he'll be 100 away from the record (two great years puts him in the same position). Even with major injuries, Griffey hit 173 home runs over eight years. I would guess that Alex could hit 100 over five or six years if and when he gets that close.

Like Joe Girardi, Trey Hillman is trying to make adjustments to his managerial style in his second year with the Royals.

Via My Baseball Bias, Joe Girardi's projected rotation should put Joba Chamberlain on the mound for the first regular season game at the new Yankee Stadium:

Girardi said he had lined up the pitchers all the way through the 162-game schedule, and he projects Chamberlain for 30 starts. "I'm not sure we skipped him at any point," Girardi added.

That got me to thinking. The first game at the new Yankee Stadium is the Yankees' 10th game of the season - the end of the second time through the rotation. If Chamberlain is not going to be skipped, does that mean he starts the home opener?

"I don't really want to give up that, because a lot of things could happen in spring training that could change that," Girardi said. "I can't give that to you yet."

Joba does have a Ruthian look to him, so it would be appropriate.

Yahoo Sports and SB Nation announced a partnership. Congrats to all the fine bloggers at SB Nation, it's well deserved!

It continues to look like Fire Jim Bowden will get his wish.

Buster Olney lays Manny Ramirez's unemployment at the feet of Manny Ramirez:

The primary reason for this, unquestionably, is the sport-wide perception that he did not honor his contract in Boston, and went to extraordinary depths to get himself out of that contract. These are not the on-background musings of a couple of rogue scouts, or the chortlings of conspiracy-theorist sports writers. This is the cemented belief of many executives with many teams, reinforced by Ramirez's sudden transformation into a high-energy player as soon as he moved from the Red Sox to the Dodgers. The same guy who was clocked at 5.8 seconds going from home to first base in his last week with Boston suddenly was running full-speed for L.A., his hat flying off.

You might think that Manny is getting picked on. You might think there's no real evidence that he stopped playing hard for the Red Sox.

But apparently, there is an army of decision-makers across the game's landscape who would disagree with you. It's Feb. 25 and one of the best hitters of all-time, fresh off one of the best performances ever, is still in need of offers.

I wonder if the Dodgers or Manny will blink? He appears to have a very good deal on the table in terms of annual salary. In this market, maybe that should be the biggest factor.

Hat tip, Projo Sox Blog.

Squawking Baseball thinks you should take the over on the Nationals:

At least if you go by the Vegas over/unders, which have the Nats winning 68.5 games. I'll take the over on that, as will PECOTA, which has them a surprisingly robust (if still mediocre) 80-82.

The Nationals definitely have a couple things going for them, including a field manager who actually knows what he's doing. Washington has so many moving parts, and so much excess at certain positions, that having someone like Manny Acta to sort it all out is a major plus.

This prediction also depends on some of their players turning around bad seasons. In the case of Lastings Milledge and Ryan Zimmerman, however, I'm starting to believe they're more hype than actually good. We'll see.

Homer Bailey almost took out his hands this off season; twice.

The Brewers first round draft choice made the switch from catcher to second base. Milwaukee isn't trying to preserve his offense, Brett Lawrie asked for the switch so he could get to the majors quicker:

He has noted that there is a lot more preparation into making the big leagues as a catcher, and despite how much he loves the position, the 19-year-old Canadian sees a quicker jump to the "bigs" as an infielder.

With a few real good second basemen in the Brewers system, plus the struggles of Rickie Weeks, Lawrie sees this to be the easier competition than the likes of catchers Angel Salome and Jonathan Lucroy.

I don't really think the competition has anything to do with it though. Personally, I think this is the case of a young kid wanting to have as long of a career as possible, who sees more benefit in playing the infield than roughing up his knees behind home plate.

Weeks is pretty good for a player who struggles. Still if Lawrie can hit, he's very valuable either as a catcher or a second baseman. If he's that good, he'll either push someone out or end up in a trade to a team that needs his strengths at one of those positions.

The exhibition season gets underway today. The MLB Network shows the Giants and Indians at 3 PM EST.

With rumors flying that the Nationals will hire Tony LaCava to replace Jim Bowden, Fire Jim Bowden rounds up all the information he can find on the Blue Jays assistant general manager.

It's a rare occasion in which I catch Rob Neyer in an error, so here it is:

By my count, after the Twins move into their new palace next spring, only the Dodgers and the Red Sox will play in older homes than the A's. But Dodger Stadium and Fenway Park are both baseball-only cash cows, while the A's are sharing with the Raiders, and nobody shows up even when they're winning.

Wrigley Field is nearly as old as Fenway, and Angel Stadium opened the same year as the Coliseum, but the baseball season came first.

Still, I like Rob's idea of moving the A's to Portland, although I'd prefer Maine to Oregon. :-)

Erik Bedard appears to be ahead of schedule after a brief appearance in an intrasquad game today.

Here's a list of players in the WBC by organization. You can also click on a country in the side bar at the link to see the roster.

Buy World Baseball Classic tickets.

Dave Cameron suggests that every four years the All-Star break is expanded to seven days and they play the WBC tournament in that time. It's a fine idea, but how are they going to determine home field for the World Series without an AL-NL game? :-)

Marty Brennaman doesn't mince any words in his opinion of Jim Bowden:

Brenneman -- who covered the Reds during Bowden's rocky tenure as general manager in Cincinnati -- suggested to son Tom Brennaman in a recent broadcast commentary for WLW Radio that a history of arguably dubious dealings by Bowden indicates something may be amiss.

"That guy has been such a bad guy for such a long time that what goes around, comes around," said Brennaman, who has a reputation for outspokenness if not being altogether blunt.

The Bowden death watch continues. Who would Washington fans like to see as GM? Paul DePodesta? One of the Red Sox or Indians assistants?

I don't understand why the Rays made this public:

Prinicpal owner Stuart Sternberg did about 20 minutes with area media after getting a look at the new spring facility, touching on a number of subjects.

The biggest news was the he confirmed what executive VP Andrew Friedman suggested during the off-season, that with their payroll creeping above $60-million, they have lost any flexibility to made in-season acquisitions - though he did leave the caveat that "you never say never" and his answer could be "a little different" come June or July.

Even if it's true, why give the Yankees and Red Sox that information? If it comes down to a three-way race for the AL East and the Wild Card between these three teams, the two rich teams will know there's one less bidder out there for any players they want to acquire. That should make their costs a little less.

Of course, given the "never say never" line, maybe it's all an elaborate ruse!

Maury Brown posts a detailed report on this year's arbitration proceedings.

Vernon Wells's hamstring injury doesn't seem to be that serious:

"It's the same injury I had (from last season) and (doctors) told me it's a unique injury. There's a chance of it coming back, of rupturing the tendon, but right now it's just a strain on the scar tissue from the original (injury).

"It's not as bad as it seemed," Wells said of yesterday's estimates of a four week layoff. "It's something that if I needed to get through right now, I could. But (it's spring training), and we have time to get ready for the opening of the season."

He says he'll miss two weeks instead of four, as originally reported.

R.J. Anderson looks at how the length of time and total money given to free agents changed over the last three years.

The Mariners want their pitchers working faster and throwing better pitches. If you had to pick between the two, however, I'll take the second.

Boof Bonser says he needs shoulder surgery, although the team hasn't officially agreed:

"They're going to have to go in and clean it out," he said.

Bonser said team doctors were looking the results of the MRI exam he underwent yesterday in St. Petersburg, Fla., and official word should come after today's workout.

It's a blow for Bonser, who was trying to figure out his bullpen role. Some feel he could be late-inning guy because he can hit 94 on the gun. But the Twins might want another long reliever to go with Matt Guerrier since Jesse Crain, Luis Ayala, Craig Breslow and Jose Mijares are largely one-inning guys.

Stay tuned.

Update: Bonser will undergo surgery Wednesday:

Bonser will miss at least several weeks because of the surgery - but even longer if he needs more than just a clean-up. Bonser reported shoulder soreness at the end of last season but an MRI revealed no structural damage. Rest didn't help, as Bonser threw three times off a mound in January and still felt discomfort.

Basically, they won't know much until they get a look inside.

Darin Erstad suffered a small fracture of his cheek bone. The comment on the article at BBTF is priceless.

Michael Walsh says we're all wrong about Derek Jeter's defense, because his actual errors haven't cost the Yankees that many games!

Regardless of the conclusions of any individual study, scientific or otherwise, there is no question that Derek Jeter is nothing less than a solid defender. For anyone to even infer that he may be the worst fielder in all of baseball is simply ridiculous. Truth be told, the current version of Derek Jeter is flashing better leather than the 23-year-old kid who made those costly errors in 1997.

In 2008 Jeter made fewer errors than all but one American League shortstop (Gold Glove winner Michael Young). Yuniesky Betancourt made 21 errors and swung a very average stick. I have yet to see one article proclaiming Betancourt the "least effective" defensive player in the game. Perhaps that's because articles and studies about Yuniesky Betancourt are about as interesting as an Andy Warhol flick. Derek Jeter's celebrity is enormous. I can't think of another shortstop in the big leagues that makes commercials and dates movie stars. Is there a better way to get people talking about your study or newspaper article than to discount the abilities of one of the most recognizable athletes on the planet?

It's not about the errors Jeter makes, it's about all the balls that he never gets a glove on that other shortstops turn into outs. I'm surprised an article like this made it to Dugout Central.

Cameron Martin wants the Red Sox to start games earlier, not later:

The Red Sox are pushing all 7:05 start times back to 7:10 this season, in an effort to accommodate fans trekking to the ballpark, some of whom can't get their crap together earlier. For those of us who rarely venture to Fenway, this move means twiddling our thumbs for an extra five minutes after the evening news and/or chatting that much longer with the family after dinner.

He wants the games to start at 6:55, to get people into the park quicker.

The change doesn't really make all that much difference. Games are scheduled for 7:05, but don't actually start until 7:07 (I assume to give people a little leeway). So if the game actually starts at 7:10, it will only be three minutes later than usual, not five.

It wasn't that long ago that games started at 8 PM. My first few years at ESPN, the double headers were at 8 and 11, not 7 and 10 eastern time. Games were getting longer, however. So teams started moving back the start time to reflect the reality that people didn't want to be sitting in the stands at 11:30 at night.

I don't buy Lucchino's reasoning, however, quoted in the post. It's really a few more minutes for fans to buy concessions, putting more money in the pocket of the Red Sox.

The Boston Herald writes about Stephen Drew's great second half of 2008:

Getting it going last season took a while, but after the All-Star break, the left-handed batting Drew hit .313, mostly from the leadoff spot. The highlight came last Sept. 1, when he hit for the cycle against the St. Louis Cardinals.

For the season, Drew became the first shortstop since Robin Yount to hit 40 doubles (44), 10 triples (11) and 20 homers (21).

He credited his success to simply "seeing the ball well."

If second half success is any indicator, then Troy Tulowitzki and Jason Bartlett should have great 2009s, too.

Ned Colletti denied that the Dodgers have a deal with Manny Ramirez:

KLAC-AM in Los Angeles reported earlier Monday that a contract agreement -- for two guaranteed years and a third year based on games played and plate appearances -- would be announced later this week.

"I'm not going to address that," Boras told the Los Angeles Times.

Colletti told the Times it "would be foolish" to print such unverified information.

That's a pretty weak denial. We'll see what happens in the next couple of days. Does anyone know if Manny left Costa Rica?

Update: Jon Heyman has more:

Both Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers have done some compromising in recent days, according to people familiar with the negotiations, as the two sides seem to now understand that they aren't going to get exactly what they want in a potential deal.

But as to whether the Dodgers ultimately get Ramirez, well, that remains uncertain, even now as spring has sprung.

Baseball Crank takes a look at the Yankees history in the free agent era signing or trading for established veteran pitchers.

The Tao of Dave Stieb looks at Tommy John surgery as performance enhancement.

Correction: Sorry about the spelling error. I was on the road this afternoon and blogging from my phone, and it seems to try to correct some words I type without my asking.

The DRays Bay 2009 Tampa Bay Rays Guide is available for download.

Alex Rodriguez should donate his incentive money for breaking the home run record to charity.

At the risk of sounding like one of those awful wannabe populist columnists -- and with the full realization that this would never, ever happen -- how much fun would it be if A-Rod announced next week that he was donating his $30 million bonus to anti-drug charities? It would be delicious chaos, no? How does anyone root against him? Sure, you could call him a crazy, image-obsessed drug user, but think of the kids! He could even let Hank Aaron pick the charities! The columnists' heads would 'asplode.

It's a great idea, cold medicine or no.

Jim Bowden denies any wrong doing. I assume that means legal wrong doing, not the Griffey contract.

The judge in the Barry Bonds case ordered Greg Anderson to court:

A federal judge has ordered Barry Bonds' personal trainer, Greg Anderson, to court to disclose whether he intends to testify at the slugger's trial next month.

U.S. District Judge Susan Illston scheduled a hearing for Wednesday morning and ordered the U.S. Marshals Service to tell Anderson and provide him with transportation, if needed.

I assume Anderson will tell her, "No." At that point, she'll finish throwing out the counts of the perjury case that the prosecution needs Anderson to confirm. I suppose she also might hold Anderson in contempt and throw him back in jail.

Could the Washington Nationals be so bad that Odalis Perez doesn't want to play for them? He never showed up to camp, so the Nationals released him:

"He would not return our phone calls, and after talking internally with [Manager] Manny Acta and [pitching coach] Randy St. Claire and the organization, we all feel it's important that we want players here than want to be here and want to help us win, so we made that decision this morning," General manager Jim Bowden said, according to the Washington Post..

Perez has expressed his dissatisfaction with his contract since he gave his agent the OK to sign a non-guaranteed minor league deal with Washington on Feb. 5 that would pay him $850,000 if he makes the team, the same stipulation he faced last year.

Why bother with the contract in the first place? I also wonder if this makes him a free agent, or does not showing up preclude him from signing with other teams?

According to South Side Sox, David Wilder was using his ill gotten gains from the White Sox to finance a bar in Phoenix:

According to documents obtained by the Tribune, Wilder in November 2006 opened a night spot, Club Burn, that operated "at a great loss" despite being voted Phoenix's top gay bar in 2007. Records show it lost about $570,000 in a matter of months and closed its doors in January 2008.

He obviously did not have enough flying Viking kittens in attendance.

Update: Here's the original Tribune story on Wilder.

Fire Brand of the American League also sees John Henry's call for a salary cap as a money grab by the Red Sox.

ShysterBall praises Alex Rodriguez's choice of lawyer:

If you're not immediately familiar with Reisinger's name, it's because unlike the Rusty Hardins of the world, Reisinger looks to defend his clients' interests first rather than be the first one to a television camera. There's a reason why Andy Pettitte didn't get ensnared in a Clemens-like drama.

I remember talking to a lawyer friend during the start of the Clemens debacle, and he was amazed that they were allowing Clemens to talk. His advice would have been to shut up and let the lawyer do all the speaking on the subject. Wise counsel.

Jim Storer just called me to say he heard on WFAN that Joe Girardi called off today's practice, and the players and coaching staff are going out for lunch and a pool tournament. Peter Abraham confirms:

With games starting Wednesday, Girardi decided to give his team a break and build some chemistry at the same time.

Spring training is too long, so teams probably need a break like this.

I'm wondering if Joe is still doing the tough workouts? Last year, he really pushed the players with running and such. Is he pushing as hard this year?

Jerry Manuel is thinking of switching his outfield platoon from leftfield to rightfield, sitting Ryan Church against lefties:

Manuel previously had been consistent in saying Murphy and righty-hitting Fernando Tatis would platoon in left field, while Church was his right fielder. But Sunday Manuel expressed more faith in Murphy than Church against southpaws. So the manager suggested Murphy may see action against many lefthanders, too, while Church may be the one to find his at-bats taken away by Tatis.

"I kind of see Murphy being a little better hitter right now, so Tatis could go that way," Manuel said, referring to Tatis being used in right field against southpaws. "It all depends on how well they're doing. If they're not getting hits, they're not going to play."

Both Church and Tatis have a long track record against lefties, and Tatis is clearly the better hitter.

A study shows caffeine is a performance enhancer. We'll all be Mormons soon.

On the 95th anniversary of the Federal League, More Hardball presents a concise history of the short-lived major league. Thanks to them, MLB owns an anti-trust exemption.

The Nationals Enquirer rounds up the latest news on Jim Bowden, especially this story about how he's part of a federal investigation:

A federal investigation into the skimming of signing bonuses given to baseball prospects from Latin America is looking at Washington Nationals general manager Jim Bowden as far back as 1994, when he was GM of the Cincinnati Reds, according to a baseball executive familiar with the investigation.

Two sources inside baseball say that a long-time scout in Latin America, Jorge Oquendo, 47, is the man who links the FBI's investigations of Bowden and his special assistant Jose Rijo to that of former Chicago White Sox senior director of player personnel David Wilder. Last May the White Sox fired Wilder and two Dominican-based scouts after allegations surfaced that they had pocketed money earmarked for player signing bonuses. Oquendo worked for Wilder in 2006 and 2007, as well as for Bowden with the Reds in 1994 and again with the Reds from 2000 through 2003. Oquendo left Cincinnati in 2005, two years after Bowden was fired. (Bowden became Nationals GM in 2004.)

It's time to get your GM resumes in order. Turning around the Nationals will be a challenge.

Anibal Sanchez is healthy enough to start the spring opener for the Marlins.

Unable to sign Ken Griffey, Jr., the Braves take Garret Anderson instead:

The Braves have finally added a veteran bat to their outfield, left-handed slugger Garret Anderson.

The team finalized a one-year contract worth about $2.5 million with the free agent on Sunday, according to a person familiar with negotiations. An announcement is expected to come Monday, and Anderson was en route to Florida to join the Braves at spring training.

Garret's offense has been below average the last three years. He was never much at getting on base. His batting average, however, is high for such a low OBA, and he hit for some power. Again, however, that power is way down in three of the last four years, making Anderson dispensable to the Angels.

Frankly, I'd have rather seen the Braves break the bank for one year and try to win with Manny Ramirez.

Hat tip, Braves Journal.

With an extended spring training, the extra work by Twins starters might allow Ron Gardenhire to go north with eleven pitchers instead of twelve. I'd love to see staffs get back down to ten pitchers some day.

Ian Casselberry hopes the early signs of Dontrelle Willis' recovery continue through the season. I do too. Dontrelle is one of the great characters of the game today, and it would be a pity for the game to lose him at a young age.

Boras Blog notes that the Giants failure to sign Joe Crede gives them more money to sign Manny Ramirez.

Fire Jim Bowden rounds up the latest news on the Alvarez/Gonzalez fraud case, including Basilio Vizcaino's side of the story.

Peter Abraham looks at how Joe Girardi is trying to improve as a manager of the club house. I thought his take on questioning lineups was interesting:

"Players have to believe in their mind that you want to do what's best for them in their life. I was a player that never asked why I wasn't in the lineup that day. My thought process was that a manager isn't going to put a lineup out there he thinks is going to lose. Some guys are more inquisitive. I understand that not everyone is the same and you have to sometimes step out of your comfort zone to get to a player. I think I understand them better."

Girardi trusted his managers. Then again, he was never a star with the supporting ego. A team wants hitters and pitchers who want to play every day, or at every opportunity. Balancing that with the needs of the team to win is never going to be easy for any skipper.

The Athletics's plan to build a new stadium in Fremont fizzled:

"At this time we have decided to no longer pursue the Fremont project," said A's spokesman Bob Rose. "We are regrouping and will have discussions internally about our future options."

The team asked the city of Fremont this week to halt the planning process required to build a stadium. A City Council meeting on the stadium scheduled for Tuesday has been canceled.

"As far as I'm concerned, it's dead," said Fremont Vice Mayor Anu Natarajan. "I don't know if this was the right thing for Fremont or not, but I'm very disappointed we didn't let the process unfold."

On top of that, there is no fallback plan. The A's will be staying in the Oakland Coliseum for the foreseeable future.

I suspect the real estate collapse has a lot to do with this. Lew Wolff wanted to build a village around his new stadium, but who was going to buy his houses and rent his stores? Maybe he can use this to his advantage and buy up land to build a stadium cheaply over a few years.

The Rays are moving to in-house, video and computer scouting:

The theory, executive vice president Andrew Friedman said, is to provide manager Joe Maddon and staff with more extensive information -- trends, stats, tendencies, etc. -- that can be more easily applied.

With unlimited resources, Friedman said, they might try to do it both ways. But for this season, anyway, they're going to try it the new way.

"We feel like net-net, this will provide us with the best information, up-to-date information and thorough information in a cost-effective way," he said.

If the Rays don't do well this year, the media will pillory them for the change.

David Dellucci had reporters going with the story of his thumb injury:

Dellucci, who will miss at least the first three games of the Cactus League season, told reporters Saturday morning that he suffered a cut left thumb when an alligator bit him while he was saving a boy while fishing near his home in Baton Rouge, La.

He hooked two of the three reporters gathered around him hook, line and sinker before coming clean.

Dellucci said he smashed his thumb while trying to close the tailgate of his trailer on Feb. 1. He called the Indians with news about the mishap right after it happened and reported to camp early to get it checked out.

As reported in an earlier post, Dellucci needed three stitches to close the cut. Then he needed surgery on the thumb to reclose the cut properly and reattach the nail to the nail bed.

If a gator was that close, he would have gotten more than the thumb. :-)

Jose Rijo becomes the first Nationals front office casualty of the fraud scandal:

Jose Rijo, the Washington Nationals front office member linked most closely to the fraudulent signing of a Dominican prospect, has taken a leave of absence from the team.

Rijo, who has worked for the team since 2005 as a special assistant to the general manager, remains a team employee, but there is no timetable for his return.

My money is on this leave becomes permanent at some point.

Chris Carpenter threw against batters today, and Tony La Russa is happy:

"The fact that he's actually on the field is exciting," La Russa said. "We've only seen this how many times? You can count it on less than two hands how many times in the last two years we've actually seen him facing a hitter. So this is a big day, and a fun day." Though he struggled at times with the location of his fastball, Carpenter snapped off several strong breaking balls.

"My arm felt great," Carpenter said. "My location was off a bit at the beginning, but I felt like the last 10 or so (pitches) I was hitting my spot pretty good. It was just fun to get back out there and be a part of it."

It sounds like he still has a long way to go, but there's no doubt a healthy Carpenter makes the Cardinals' rotation much stronger.

I want to wish a speedy recovery to Jason Johnson, who was diagnosed recently with cancer of the retina. He's already undergone radiation treatment and his prognosis is good.

The Rays signed Jason Isringhausen to a minor league deal.

Isringhausen was brought on board with the idea that if healthy, he may be able to compete for the closer job with Troy Percival, or if nothing else, provide more depth in case Percival can not make a full recovery from back surgery.

I guess the idea is that if you have two injured closers, one might actually heal.

The Chicago Tribune reports that Joe Crede signed with the Minnesota Twins:

Crede, 30, agreed to terms Friday night with the Minnesota Twins, according to a major league source.

Crede, who provided stellar defense and was a clutch hitter during his tenure with the Sox, signed late in free agency because he was recovering from the latest in a series of back ailments. According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune, it appeared Crede was willing to sign for less than the $7 million base it was believed he was seeking, but no details were available about the contract.

The Twins were near the bottom of range at third base in 2008, so a healthy Crede should improve their defense. He might even add a bit of power.

David Ortiz took questions about Angel Presinal this morning:

Ortiz stressed he's worked with Presinal, but the trainer never pushed him towards steroids.

"I've known him for a long time," said Ortiz. "All I know from him is how to keep our bodies ready; working out, teaching how to do the right exercises and things like that. He's not just teaching baseball players, he has a guy who runs marathon, a volleyball player, basketball player, everybody. He's been doing that for years. All i know is we all work out with him as a group a guys want to be ready in spring training. And that's about it."

So it strikes me there are a large group of players who work with this person in the off season. Are they all going to get suspended?

Update: Robinson Cano loves the guy, too.

Tony Pena, Jr. took care of his eyes after a really poor season hitting in 2008:

Three days after the season ended, Pena had Lasik eye surgery.

"It helped a lot," Pena said Friday. "Sometimes I couldn't recognize pitches when I was at the plate. It's one of those little things that gives you a better feeling when you're up there.

"Playing with glasses felt a little uncomfortable so I just decided to do that and I heard it was good idea," he added. "I wasn't seeing the ball good, just being able to tell depth perception. It is something that I feel like I'm doing again, just recognizing everything."

Two and half weeks after the surgery, Pena starting playing winter ball in the Dominican Republic. In 46 games, he hit .275 with a .347 on-base percentage, drawing 18 walks. By contrast, he had walked only 16 times in 247 games with the Royals the previous two seasons.

Tony has no where to go but up.

Jon Weisman reports the signing, but no details. I'm glad Orlando got a job, and I wonder how much this might affect the signing of Manny Ramirez.

Update: Orlando gets $3.8 million for one year.

Redleg Nation presents the Dusty Baker hitting flow chart.

The long awaited Brian Roberts contract extension happened today:

Baltimore Orioles second baseman Brian Roberts had a $40 million contract extension waiting for him to sign after Friday's workout. Typical of the attitude he brings to the team, he insisted first on running sprints in the outfield. Everything else could wait.

With his cardio exercises done, Roberts scribbled his name on a new four-year deal, which begins in 2010. He already was due $8 million this year and would have been eligible for free agency after the World Series. His new deal calls for salaries of $10 million annually through 2013.

Roberts posted outstanding OBAs in three of the last four years. At that price and his age, it seems like a good contract. It's probably a good thing the Orioles waited a year to extend his deal; it probably would have cost them more last season.

The price to is low enough that if Baltimore wants to trade him, his contract won't prevent that.

Only Baseball Matters links to an expose of drugs in sports -- from 40 years ago.

Maury Brown sums up the statistics for the 2009 arbitration season.

Barry Zito is showing good control early on.

David Ortiz isn't working out.

About the only real news from the Q&A was that David Ortiz was once again absent from on-field workouts as he continues to nurse a sore left shoulder after sleeping on it awkwardly two nights ago. Ortiz also sat out yesterday's on-field sessions.

After 30-odd years of sleeping, you'd think Ortiz would be good at it by now.

At least he didn't have a bad dream. :-)

Waiting For Next Year notes the Indians are leading the way in ticket price analysis to keep fans in the stands.

The Phillies tickets are selling well, another reason why winning is important in this recession.

Buy Phillies opening night tickets.

The Daily News links Alex Rodriguez to Angel Presinal, a trainer banned by baseball for his involvement with the Juan Gonzalez Canadian steroid confiscation.

The Daily News has Persinal following Rodriguez around during the 2007, staying in the same hotels as A-Rod, but in a different room, with the famous cousin as a roommate. Of course, Alex has cited his 2007 season as a reason to believe he's not juicing. He failed to mention Angel's training as a possible reason, however.

Update: A suspension might come down over A-Rod consorting with Presinal. Hat tip, The Big Lead.

Since Presinal worked with players on the Dominican WBC team during the last tournament, will all those players be suspended as well?

Detect-O-Vision notes there are some situations in which it makes sense to start Griffey in leftfield instead of Endy Chavez.

ESPNdeportes.com investigates primobolan in the Dominican Republic, and finds that it could not be purchased over the counter during the time Alex Rodriguez says he injected himself.

Dr. Pia Veras, who oversees the regulatory agency, told ESPNdeportes.com that Primobolan is known as "boli" in the streets of Dominican Republic, and was not legal for purchase during the aforementioned years.

"What Alex Rodriguez stated at the press conference [in Tampa] doesn't make sense," Veras said. "It is important for us to clarify that such substance has not been registered and is not currently registered for legal sale in Dominican pharmacies -- not now and the same applies for the years 2001 to 2003."

Maybe this is why Alex used the street name; his cousin bought it on the streets. Testosterone, however, was available over the counter in the DR.

The Nationals avoid arbitration with Ryan Zimmerman, signing him to a one-year, $3.25 million contract. Fire Jim Bowden, however, wonders why the Nationals failed to lock up their third baseman for four years:

Zimmerman is coming off an injury-riddled season that must have put some doubt in his mind (if witnessing the career-fizzling injures of friends Nick Johnson, John Patterson, Shawn Hill, and Chad Cordero didn't) about his ability to avoid injury for the next three years and score a big pay day in free agency. And in a down economy, everyone's getting less than they expect.

In that environment, the team had every opportunity to walk in and blow Zimmerman away with a deal that a year ago might have been considered a modest opening bid.

After watching Odalis Perez settle for a minor-league deal and Bobby Abreu sign for half of Eric Gagne's 2008 contract, I'm done trying to predict contract numbers in the current environment. But barring injury, it's hard to imagine that Zimmerman will ever be cheaper than he would have been now. Of course, that might have made Zim reluctant to do a long-term deal now too--he's gotta be thinking that if he can just go out there and do what he did when he was 21 years old (and maybe wait for the economy to settle down a little), he could dramatically improve his negotiating posture.

Still, if the team offered him a deal that would have seemed close to fair, even if Zimmerman had been healthy and the economy hadn't cratered, then surely he would have signed. There are no guarantees, and Zim is one ACL tear away from missing his last chance to set himself and his family up for life.

Zimmerman's had a disappointing career so far. His OPS+ dropped each year since his rookie season, and it wasn't that high to begin with. He's in the part of his career where he should be improving, and that hasn't happened yet. I don't blame the Nationals for going one more year. Maybe he breaks out in 2009. If he doesn't, however, he's a good but not great player, and a modest long term contract would be more appropriate.

Fortune Magazine looks at how sports are being hurt by the downturn. Professor Zimbalist thinks teams won't be as recession proof as in previous bad times:

Historically, teams haven't had to go to such lengths because the bond between team and town was so strong. The National Basketball Association grew its attendance during both the 1973-74 and 1980-81 recessions. And Major League Baseball enjoyed record attendance in the summer of 1983, when the U.S. unemployment rate was 10%. "The old adage is that people need distractions when times are tough," says sports economist Andrew Zimbalist, a professor at Smith College. "So they go to ball games."

Nevertheless, Zimbalist is one of many sports-business experts who think this recession will be different. Sports leagues today are more dependent on economically vulnerable sources of revenue such as corporate sponsorships, luxury suites, and other premium seating. Even if attendance doesn't nosedive, teams could still find themselves swimming in red ink.

Not even pro sports' richest franchise, the Yankees, seems immune. General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) - once baseball's biggest corporate sponsor - has canceled its sponsorship deal with the team. And even before superstar third baseman Alex Rodriguez was caught up in a steroid scandal, the Yanks were having trouble selling premium seats in their new stadium - so much so that they hired a Manhattan realty firm to market unsold club seats and luxury boxes.

The article, however, holds up the Arizona Diamondbacks as a team that is going the extra yard to keep its fans:

And yet last summer, with the economy tanking and her income shrinking, Smiley began thinking seriously about giving up her beloved seats. The bear market had halved her IRA, and spending $5,000 a year on baseball tickets was a luxury Smiley was no longer sure she could afford.

Torn, Smiley sent D-backs CEO Derrick Hall an e-mail asking him if he could help. Five minutes later the phone rang, and shockingly, it was Hall was on the other end. "Basically, he said that they'd do whatever they could to keep me as a season ticket holder," says Smiley. "I was surprised." The eventual solution: The D-backs arranged for Smiley to share season tickets with someone else in her section. The D-backs kept a customer happy while also managing to preserve a few thousand dollars in revenue. "They did a nice thing," Smiley says.

It's probably more important than ever to win. Losing gives people a good excuse not to spend money.

Tim Hudson is blaming a reporter for the Braves losing Griffey. Depending on how Ken's season goes, Tim might by thanking him later.

Since Greg Anderson won't testify, the judge in the Bonds perjury trial won't allow positive tests as evidence.

Jered Weaver is experiencing the same tightness he did last year, but this time the Angels were on top of it early:

Asked if there were similarities between this spring and 2007, Weaver said, "It's the same kind of feeling, nothing we haven't dealt with before."

The difference is, in 2007, the Angels did not know Weaver's arm was tight until camp opened. This winter, the problem flared up in early January, and Weaver immediately notified the Angels, who had him come to the stadium for the next five weeks or so for treatment and strengthening exercises.

Weaver, who went 11-10 with a 4.33 ERA in 30 starts last season, didn't pitch in any exhibition games in 2007. This spring, he is scheduled to begin throwing off a mound in a week to 10 days.

"We didn't get to it as quickly [in 2007] as we did this time," Weaver said. "But I'll be on pace to start season. I definitely have enough time to get going. I'm on schedule ... just a little tardy."

Jose Guillen removed his own ingrown toe nail:

"The doctor saw me (Wednesday)," Guillen said, "and he said we'll see how it feels in the morning. If it wasn't any better, he wanted me to have surgery. I thought, 'Whoaaa.'

"So I went on my own (Wednesday) to the pharmacy, got some tweezers, came home and pulled it out myself. Let me tell you, I cried. I had one tough hour. But I got it out."

Guillen said the nail had hooked and twisted deep into the skin.

"I reached in there (with the tweezers)," he said, "and poked around until I got the end of it. Then I counted one, two, three and just pulled .... Oh, my God. It came out, but tears were running down my cheeks."

There's no crying in baseball!

I wonder if he'll apply to medical school when his career is over?

The Mets came up with a better patch to be placed on their hats to commemerate their new stadium.

Tom Gordon's nerve surgery worked:

The right-hander, whom the Diamondbacks signed to a one-year deal earlier this month, is coming off ulnar nerve transposition surgery on his right elbow, a procedure in which the nerve is moved to a different area.

And so far, Gordon couldn't be more encouraged by how he feels.

"Every single day since 2006, I've had soreness, aching and sharp pain," said Gordon, who has also had shoulder problems. "This is just a really good feeling."

So now the question is can the lack of pain make up for three years of aging? If he can return to his 2005 form, the DBacks made a great deal.

From Halos Heaven, an ariel view of Angels Stadium, 1966.

Tom Glavine signed with the Braves for $1 million plus incentives:

Glavine will make an additional $1 million for his first day on the active roster, $1.25 million for 30 days on the roster and another $1.25 million for 90 days on the roster, bringing the total possible value of the deal to $4.5 million. Glavine, however, has agreed to defer a portion of the money, a concession that lowers the present-day value of the contract.

Glavine's walks and strikeouts were even in 2008, never a good sign (either you are striking out too few or walking too many). On top of that, balls were flying out of the park against him. I'll take the under on the Braves paying the full contract.

The Indians designated Andy Marte for assignment:

This completes a pretty dramatic fall from grace for Marte, who was once considered one of the premier prospects in the game. From a performance standpoint, his track record in the minors was terrific. He showed power early on (slugging .492 as an 18-year-old in the South Atlantic League), added patience (a .372 OBP in a terrible-for-hitters park at 19 in the Carolina League), and hit well in the upper minors (.269/.364/.525 as a 20-year-old in Double-A, .275/.372/.506 as a 21-year-old in Triple-A).

However, after his 2005 season put him on the cusp of the majors, the Braves traded him to Boston (who subsequently sent him to Cleveland), and his career completely stalled. He didn't hit in Cleveland or in Buffalo, and has continued to struggle ever since. In 561 major league plate appearances over the last four years, he's hit just .211/.265/.337, racking up a terrible -3.68 WPA/LI in essentially one season's worth of playing time.

Terry Pluto talked about Marte's problems last July, noting he has a long swing.

Chase Utley is starting to believe he'll be ready for the Phillies opening game:

"I think it's pretty realistic at this point," Utley said. "We've pushed it over the past week and a half, two weeks that I've been down here, and it's responded extremely well. We're not overdoing it yet, but we are putting it to a good pace, and I think we are all pretty comfortable with it.

"I would say my chances right now -- I don't want to jinx myself -- are fair to quite fair."

Every day Utley plays makes in less likely the Phillies will need to chase the Mets down the stretch.

Hat tip, Phillies Nation.

Fifth Outfielder, in a very funny column, uses Jeter's poor range as evidence that Derek is telling the truth when he claims he never used performance enhancing drugs.

Rob Neyer offers the perfect take on the winter of 2008-2009:

In the 23rd century, when robot/human hybrids are zipping about the universe in their star cruisers and "writing" about the grand history of the Galactic Pastime, they're going to write about the winter of 2008-2009 as the moment when the men who ran the sport finally realized that you should pay players what they're actually worth. How terribly radical.

My guess, however, is that this will last until owners are flush with money again.

Jeff Francis will likely miss the 2009 due to exploratory surgery:

He came to spring training hoping to test his shoulder before making a decision on what to do next and reported feeling less discomfort in camp. But Francis changed his mind after watching video of his pitching form in a Tuesday bullpen session.

"It didn't look anywhere close. I was really disappointed," Francis said. "There is obviously something going on."

He said he spotted changes he had made in his delivery to avoid pain.

"I had no arm speed, my arm was short and the arm action was short and I was not powerful at all," he said.

Francis said it was bad time of year to make the decision, but "I think it is a necessary one."

I'm surprised exploratory surgery would do that much damage. I assume the doctors will find something, and fixing the something is what's going to put him on the shelf for a year.

Brad Wilkerson describes himself as estatic to be with the Red Sox. I thought Texas made a good deal to get him from Washington, but that certainly didn't turn out to be the case. The Red Sox, however, have a philosophy of recognizing a player's strengths and putting them into situations where they can succeed. The allowed David Ortiz to be a pull hitter again, and he flourished. While Brad won't ever come close to big Papi, if he can return to his Washington form, getting on base at a good clip, he'll help the Red Sox.

Via Cafe Hayek, Rick Santelli is ready to start a revolution in Chicago.

Harold Reynolds hooked up Chuck Armstrong and Ken Griffey, Jr. with Willie Mays to get Junior to sign in Seattle.

Next up for Harold, mid-east peace. :-)

The Big Lead takes a look at some of the Houston Astros of the 1990s and wonders if the Rangers get two much of the state's scrutiny when it comes to steroids.

I just received a note from Central America:

Just as a little note - I work on a research vessel in Costa Rica - yesterday ( Jan 18th) while taking a tour we stopped by Villa Calderas which is by the city Jaco in Costa Rica ( 500 a dollar night place - we just stopped by for a drink and to watch the sunset ). Who do we see in the pool - A Mr. Manny who I thought was to be in Arizona for spring training with the Dodgers. When we asked for maybe a picture, a short white man came up to us saying he was trying to relax ( having female company with him ) and was not excepting any photo's. I guess it didn't help that one of us was wearing a Red Sox shirt.

I'm pretty sure he means Feb. 18th. The email came from a legitimate research designation, and going to their site I found the ship and it is indeed off Costa Rica. So Manny looks to be enjoying himself while he waits for someone to sign him.

The Braves and Jeff Francoeur agreed to a $3.375 million dollar contract, avoiding arbitration. I believe that only leaves Ryan Zimmerman facing a hearing.

The Indians are thinking of playing Ryan Garko in the outfield:

Ryan Garko stepped on the scale Monday for his physical and weighed 226 pounds. That's 10 pounds lighter than he was last year. It's a good thing because Garko is going to have to be as streamlined as possible if manager Eric Wedge actually plays him in the outfield during the regular season.

Garko, built like the catcher he once was, made the transition to first base when he reached the big leagues. After driving in 90 runs last year, Garko has a lot of bench time staring him in the eye if Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner can stay healthy and reclaim their spots in the middle of the Indians lineup.

Martinez is going to be bouncing between first and catcher. If Hafner rediscovers his swing following October surgery on his right shoulder, he'll take the majority of the at-bats at DH.

So the outfield might be a welcome refuge for Garko.

Offensively, Garko would be an improvement over the 2008 Cleveland rightfielders. The Indians showed good range collectively in right, in 2008, however, so they may be trading offense for defense at that position.

They're planning on playing him in left, however, where the offense was closer to Garko's and defensively they were one of the best teams in the majors. That doesn't seem like such a good idea.

A-Rod's cousin couldn't evade reporters for long:

As far back as anyone can remember, Yuri Sucart was always by Alex Rodriguez's side.

Sucart would tell anyone who would listen he was Rodriguez's cousin. But he was also Rodriguez's best friend, confidant and personal protector.

On Tuesday, when Rodriguez said in a nationally televised news conference from New York Yankees spring training in Tampa, Fla., that it was his cousin who provided and injected him with performance-enhancing drugs, it was Sucart to whom Rodriguez was referring, Sucart's wife, Carmen, confirmed to ESPN on Wednesday night.

When an ESPN Deportes producer knocked on the Sucarts' door in Miami, Fla., no one answered. The producer then called the Sucarts' house on the telephone and reached a woman who later identified herself as Yuri Sucart's wife. When the producer asked if Rodriguez had referred to her husband at Tuesday's news conference, she said yes.

Carmen Sucart said Rodriguez had given enough details about her husband at the news conference.

"I told you my husband has nothing to say," she said. "What A-Rod said at the press conference is what happened and that is all. And if you want to talk to my husband, why don't you talk to his lawyer?"

I'm sure they'll be not only talking to the lawyer, but to anyone else who knows the man.

Mental Floss lists the all-time Ivy League team. Harvard's contingent gets shutout, but Shawn Haviland gets a mention as an up and coming player.

ShysterBall notes that Miami and the Marlins tried to hide $1.3 billion in stadium costs, but someone who read the bill managed to vote it down. Another reason to just say no to publicly funded stadiums.

Correction: Fixed link.

Getting Paid to Watch gives his thoughts on why A-Rod is disliked by teammates.

After reading the latest from Chico Harlan, my guess is that Jose Rijo is not long for the Nationals organization:

To sign Gonzalez, the Nationals depended on another employee, Jose Rijo, the link between their scouting department and the Dominican streets. Since January 2005, Rijo has served as a special assistant in the Washington front office, operating the team's player development facility in San Cristobal, Dominican Republic.

Rijo fostered a relationship with Gonzalez for at least two years before the signing. To get close with Gonzalez, though, he dealt with Gonzalez's buscone, a street agent named Basilio Vizcaino, who just so happened to be Rijo's childhood friend. During periods before he turned pro, Gonzalez even stayed with Vizcaino, hoping to improve his living conditions and his profile as a prospect. There was never a question about how Gonzalez should repay his debt: Once he earned a signing bonus, Vizcaino would keep 20 percent.

We'll see how this plays out, if Rijo was fooled about this kid's age for two years, there's something wrong. There's a big difference going from 14 to 16 than 18 to 20.

Jon Weisman gives us his thoughts on Joe Torre retiring after the 2010 season. However, after reading the original article, Torre didn't seem to definite. It's one thing to talk about retirement in the future, it's another to actually make the decision, especially if you're still winning.

Ken Griffey, Jr. decided to return to Seattle:

But after conflicting reports about where the aging star would settle, Griffey ultimately chose to follow through on his proclamation two years ago when he came to Seattle while playing with the Reds -- that he wanted to finish his career as a Mariner.

"We were informed tonight that Ken Griffey Jr. has decided to return to Seattle," Braves general manager Frank Wren said. "We will continue to be open to other possibilities to improve our outfield offense and, at the same time, give our young players an opportunity to show us they can win that job."

Zduriencik said the Mariners were the beneficiaries of Griffey wanting to cement his legacy in Seattle.

"Oh, I don't think there's any doubt about that," he said. "Everyone knows Ken Griffey is a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and he's returning to his roots. That doesn't happen too often."

Ken's probably better off in Seattle where he can DH every day and lessen the risk of a major leg injury. I'm sure the fans of the Mariners are happy to see him back.

There are Red Sox tickets available for April and May games. Maybe the sell out streak is in jeopardy.

Carlos Silva lost 35 pounds over the winter.

Silva devoured large, late dinners while reaching 285 pounds. Everything else plummeted.

He went 4-15 with a career-worst 6.46 ERA in his first season with the Mariners. He was 1-15 in his final 23 starts. His usually jolly nature turned jaded. He complained teammates weren't pulling their own, um, weight. His own added pounds gave him problems with his back.

"I don't feel I did anything for this team," he said.

Now, after painful yoga training and a nutritionist fine tuning his diet -- cutting meals from two steaks to one; prohibiting meals after 7 p.m.; encouraging him to go to sleep by 9:30 instead of midnight -- Silva has lost 35 pounds.

"A lot of changes. A whole different life. It feels really good," Silva said proudly.

It's too bad he got to the point where he needed to lose the weight in the first place. Will it matter? Will a lighter Silva post a lighter ERA?

The last piece of Shea Stadium falls to the ground.

Stan Kasten talks about the Nationals (and MLB) being taken by the fake Esmailyn Gonzalez.

You know, to say I'm disappointed doesn't begin to describe how I feel. I'm angry. I am very angry. We've been defrauded, and make no mistake -- this wasn't a college kid with a fake ID that came in and did this. This was a deliberate, premeditated fraud with a lot more to this story, and we are going to get to the bottom of it. There were many, many people involved in this premeditated fraud.

Kasten later noted that these frauds do get signed, but MLB usually catches them before the contract becomes final. We'll see how the story goes, but I wonder if Jim Bowden is on the hot seat now?

Update: Fire Jim Bowden notes Jose Rijo could use A-Rod's crisis management team.

Peter Handrinos sent me a galley copy of The Truth About Ruth and More: Behind Yankees Myths, Legends, and Lore. Skimming through the book, it looks like a lot of fun. The sections are short, a couple of pages on each item. He uses statistics to see if the Yankees really collapsed after Munson died, examines Reggie's IQ, and looks at the most underrated Bronx Bomber lineup of all time. Yankees fans should really enjoy this collection of facts and myths.

Derek Jeter on the steroid era:

Jeter said the most frustrating thing about all of this is how people are labeling several years in baseball the "steroid era". Jeter said he was never tempted to use, was never approached about using it.

"Everybody wasn't doing it," Jeter said.

It was a lot better when it was the lively ball era.

John Henry called for a salary cap. Not just any old salary cap, mind you, but an enlightened one.

What I want to know is what is John going to do with all the extra money the Red Sox make from the cap? With Fenway selling out, there's no reason to lower ticket prices. I doubt advertising on NESN will cost less. Beer will keep getting more expensive.

Henry is like Warren Buffett. Buffett campaigns to bring back the death tax, and for his he's praised. Berkshire Hathaway, however, sells insurance. The way to get around inheritance tax is through buying insurance policies. So if the death tax disappears, so does a huge chunk of insurance business.

Henry is for a salary cap, not in the best interests of baseball, but to put more money in his pocket instead handing it out to the players. That doesn't seem very enlightened.

The Rays and Wily Aybar agree to a two year deal. Tampa Bay buys half his arbitration years with this money.

I wonder why they didn't go for a four year deal. True, Aybar is likely to be a backup, so why waste that kind of money on a bench player? Even with an off year in 2008, Wily's career OBA is good. Some other team might find him attractive, and more so with his cost locked in for a few more years.

The early lead on the Rays new slogan is:

'09 > '08

At some point, I hope Maddon works in the ≈.

Josh Willingham and the Nationals settle on a $2.95 million contract for 2009. That leaves only Ryan Zimmerman facing a hearing for the Nationals.

Looking through the list on Cots, it looks like just Francoeur and Aybar, in addition to Zimmerman, are facing hearings. Dioner Navarro lost his case, although the site hasn't recorded it yet. Did I miss anyone?

The more I read about the Bonds case, the more I think the federal prosecutors are going to come out of the trial with a worse reputation than Bonds.

All the rippings A-Rod received in the press didn't seem to hurt him with the fans at today's practice.

Joe Maddon gave his players their motivational slogan for 2009, and will tell the press later today. I wonder if it will include more bad math? :-)

The Atlanta Braves avoid arbitration with Kelly Johnson. Might we set a record for fewest hearings in a year?

From MAD Magazine, a new A-Rod Collectible (click for a larger image):

I think I'd want the 1001st cup. :-)

T.J. Simers doesn't think much of the Dodgers rotation:

This year the Dodgers' choice for opening day starter is a guy coming off a broken leg or another coming off a sore shoulder. At last they won't have to worry about pitching come the playoffs.

In the meantime, though, it'd be nice to know how effective Manny might be out of the stretch.

If Manny wants to win, he may actually have a better chance with the Giants. Given San Francisco's pitching staff, Manny might generate enough offense on his own to push the team well over .500. :-)

It turns out one of the gems of the Washington farm system used a phony name and is four years older than believed:

According to a report on SI.com from Melissa Seguar, the shortstop once known as Esmailyn "Smiley" Gonzalez has falsified his name and age. His true identity: Carlos Alvarez Daniel Lugo. His true age: 23, or four years older than the Nationals believed. According to current data, the Nationals list Gonzalez's birthday as Sept. 21, 1989.

Do the Nationals send him packing and ask for their money back? Or do they look at him as someone who might be ready to help them sooner than they thought?

Boof Bonser ended 2008 with a sore shoulder, and starts 2009 the same way:

After indicating that Boof Bonser's shoulder would be well enough for him to throw a bullpen session by today, Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said Tuesday that Bonser's next session has yet to be scheduled.

Bonser received a cortisone shot in his shoulder Thursday to help battle tendinitis. So it appears he needs more time to get the soreness out of the area.

"Day to day," Gardenhire said. "He's not throwing. He had an injection. He's doing all the other stuff. I have not gotten an update on when he will start his throwing program. All we have to do is calm down the inflammation in his shoulder. Which, through all the exercises and treatment that he's getting, is going to happen here pretty soon."

Or maybe not. When someone takes the winter off and the shoulder doesn't heal, doesn't that indicate there's something more serious going on? No one wants to see another pitcher turn into Mark Prior.

Bugs and Cranks finds Tim McClelland understanding of steroid use. There also seems to be a hierarchy of use:

"I had a catcher tell me, 'Us peons have to get off steroids; we can't afford them,'" McClelland said. "He said the guys that make the big money, because they put up the big numbers, can get the synthetic steroids, and they can stay on them, and that's not fair".

How expensive are these drugs that someone making the major league minimum can't afford them? How can high school players afford them?

Here's a photo of the last bit of Shea Stadium left standing.

Congratulations to Sean Forman, whose Baseball Reference site just made him a very rich man!

Brian Cashman is not A-Rod's best friend right now:

"We've invested in him as an asset. And because of that, this is an asset that is going through a crisis. So we'll do everything we can to protect that asset and support that asset and try to salvage that asset."

One of the points of signing A-Rod to that big contract was that he would be a Yankee when he reached all those great career milestones. If he doesn't win back the fans, however, they'll be millstones, instead.

Teams and players continue to settle as Connor Jackson and the Diamondbacks split the difference and agree to a $3.05 million dollar contract for 2009.

Larry Bowa pulls no punches giving his opinion of Brad Penny.

Chico Harlan describes the negotiations going on between the Nationals and Ryan Zimmerman, as he fails to show up for camp early as he awaits a long-term contract or an arbitrtation hearing.

Alfonso Soriano says he's fine with moving out of the leadoff spot, but my guess is that he'll stay there. His skills are better lower in the order, but he seems to perform his best there. With lineups making little difference, the Cubs are better off maximizing Soriano's performance than losing some offense by moving him down in the lineup.

Fredi Gonzalez received a two-year extension from the Florida Marlins. Barring a firing, that should keep him in Miami through 2011.

Not that many people are paying attention to Miguel Tejada. He apologized to his Houston teammates Tuesday:

It's the first time Tejada faced his teammates since he pleaded guilty in federal court last week to lying to congressional investigators in 2005 when they asked if he had conversations with players about performance-enhancing drugs.

"It's part of this country. It's part of my life," said Tejada. "I apologized to my family, I apologized to everyone around me in baseball. Today I stood up and apologized to the entire team."

He'd be getting more attention if it wasn't for Alex.

Brian Cashman make a frank statement about Alex Rodriguez after the news conference:

"I don't think Alex is very good at communicating, to be quite honest."

Right. That's the difference between Jeter and Alex. Jeter can get up in front of 54,000 people after the last game at Yankee Stadium and give an unrehearsed speech that hits all the right notes. Alex can't write one down and make it sound sincere.

Do give the man a bit of credit, however. Some superstars completely shut out the media. Alex at least tries to speak with them, although he might be better off if he just kept quiet.

The Brewers clear their arbitration slate, signing Corey Hart to a $3.25 million contract.

Last season was a big disappointment for Hart after a great 2007. He was building toward a good career peak, but his OBA fell to .300, not what your want from an offensive outfielder. He doesn't walk that much to being with, so when his batting average falls, he becomes a drag on the offense. He only walked six times in the last two months of 2008.

Cafe Hayek offers a link to a study about economists opinions on subsidizing sports venues. The conclusion of the survey:

We have seen that economists in general, as represented by Whaples's survey (2006), oppose sports subsidies. Economists reach the nearly unanimous conclusion that "tangible" economic benefits generated by professional sports facilities and franchises are very small; clearly far smaller than stadium advocates suggest and smaller than the size of the subsidies. The fact that sports subsidies continue to be granted, despite the overwhelming preponderance of evidence that no tangible economic benefits are generated by these heavily subsidized professional sports facilities, remains a puzzle.

Rent-seeking generates powerful incentives for people like professional
sports team owners and professional athletes to divert public money into their
pockets. Elected officials are especially susceptible to flattery from professional
athletes, and these officials are also keenly aware of the political value of keeping
the local team in town regardless of the underlying cost-benefit calculus. These
explanations, along with simple collective foolishness when it comes to matters of
the heart like sports, have considerable explanatory power. Moreover, the implicit
and explicit anti-trust protection extended to North American professional sports
leagues probably contributes to the ability of team owners to extract subsidies
from local governments. At any rate, we seem to have reached the classic paradox
in which economists reach a conclusion but are unable to make economic wisdom
decisive in public policy decisions.

You may want to download the PDF and email it to a politician in your area who is trying to put your tax money to work building a venue.

Having some time to consider Alex Rodriguez's statements today, he appears to have offered a plausible explanation for what happened. It strikes me that Alex wasn't adverse to using something to get a boost, but he didn't want to use something that might hurt him later on. When his cousin offered him something safe, Alex said why not.

In other words, he probably didn't want to take something that made his head or feet big, caused him to go bald, or his back to break out in acne. Here was something over the counter in the Domincan Republic, so he went for it.

Now it's up to the press to try to tear the story apart. I'm sure they'll find Alex's cousin, see when and where he traveled in the DR, maybe even find the pharmacy where the drugs were purchased. We'll see if the story holds up.

More interesting is Alex's admission that he used something in Seattle that wasn't banned at the time but is banned now. There are supposed to be more drug allegations in Selena Robert's book, and I wonder if that was said to counter those future charges?

By the way, in my original post on the Gammons interview, I believe I nailed the one sure lie in the conversation.

The Dodgers and Andre Ethier settled their arbitration positions just before heading into the hearing:

Ethier batted .305 with 20 homers and 77 RBI last year. He had asked for $3.75 million when exchanging proposed arbitration figures and the team had offered $2.65 million.

The 26-year-old outfielder can earn $100,000 in performance bonuses -- $25,000 for 596 plate appearances, his total last year; $25,000 for 625 and $50,000 for 650.

Ethier said both sides were in the same room waiting to begin the hearing when the deal was struck.

Ethier walks away with $3.1 million, a little below the mid point without incentives.

The reports of Griffey signing with Atlanta were a bit premature:

It appeared that Ken Griffey, Jr. had finally found a home when David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that The Kid was becoming a Brave. But now MLB.com is reporting that Griffey himself says that no decision on Atlanta has been reached and that this story isn't over.

Lookout Landing sums up the situation well.

I just watched A-Rod's opening statement again, because something happened at the end that I didn't quite get at first. At the end, he said that baseball is bigger than he is, then he looked toward his teammates and said, "To my teammates," followed by a very long pause in which he looked like he was trying to contain his emotions, followed by a, "Thank you," directed at his teammates. He looked like he came close to breaking down at that point.

Alex Rodriguez's press conference is starting about 20 minutes late. I hope it starts soon, because MLB TV is getting a bit repetitive.

Update: The new conference is getting started now.

Update: No follow up questions to keep things moving.

Update: Alex makes an opening statement. Thanks Yankees for their support. He knows he has to earn back trust. In 2001, 2002 and 2003 experimented with a banned substance that triggered a positive.

In 2001, a cousin, told him about a substance that would give him an energy boost. I'm not sure of the spelling, sounds like Bolly. He took it twice a month for six months during the 2001 and 2002 season. He said it only his cousin knew about it. (Update: The drug is spelled Boli.)

He says in 2003 he hurt his neck, and that combined with the start of testing caused him to stop.

So when he told Gammons he didn't talk about this with anyone, he actually talked about it with his cousin.

Update: First question is, if you haven't been caught, would you have come out with the admissions. He says he hasn't thought about that.

Update: He was asked if the substance helped. He says he felt more energy. He also says he injected the substance.

He's asked if it was cheating, and he sidesteps the questions saying that's for others to determine.

Update: A-Rod is asked about the kids and invokes God!

Update: Alex won't name his cousin. Says they never really researched how to use this properly. When asked how he couldn't know what he was putting in his body, Alex falls back on the excuse that he was young and stupid.

Update: Hannah Storm asked if he ever used anything else, and he said he used something with Seattle (I didn't get the name) that since was banned. He implied that he got it from GNC.

Update: Good question on why if he didn't think it was wrong, why was he so secretive. Alex even admits it's a good question. He says they knew they weren't taking tic tacs, but doesn't really come up with a good answer other than he was young and stupid.

Update: When faced with stats that show that a large number of fans don't believe his use was confined to 2001-2003, Alex said that when his career is over he hopes the numbers fall in his favor. If they don't he's prepared to live with that.

Update: The conference ends with Alex asking fans to judge him from this day forward.

I assume the media will be tracking down Alex's cousin to see if his story matches Alex's.

Ken Griffey, Jr. chooses the Braves over returning to the Mariners:

The Braves and Mariners made similar offers, believed to be in the range of $2 million guaranteed, with incentives tied to staying healthy and getting a lot of plate appearances.

Griffey lives in Orlando and is believed to have wanted to be closer to home and his family.

Unlike Ruth, Aaron and Mays, Griffey won't be returning to the city of his start, at least this year. Whether or not this helps or hurts the teams depends on how healthy Ken stays during the season. At this level of salary, it's not much of a risk.

Mike Hampton got good news today as his irregular heart beat resoved itself.

The ESPN Ombudsman explains why Peter Gammons didn't go after Alex Rodriguez more in their interview:

Gammons told me, as well as other interviewers, that he was stunned by Rodriguez's admission that he had taken banned substances for three years.

"When I talked informally with Alex the night before," Gammons said, "I got the impression he was going to say whatever he tested positive for in 2003 was related to prescription drugs he had taken for a back injury in spring training."

When Gammons returned the next day for the interview -- which Rodriguez had first rescheduled from Sunday night to Monday morning, and then postponed again to early that afternoon -- he was prepared, with input from several ESPN producers and reporters, to do a more prosecutorial interview than the one that transpired. But Rodriguez offered his unexpected admission of guilt after the first question, and, Gammons says, "Obviously, there was a shift in direction."

"I realized right away that this was the first surefire, by his performance, Hall-of-Famer to admit this," Gammons said, "and therefore I thought keeping him talking, and getting as much as I could out there, was very important. I really felt my first duty was to get his words onto my employer's network."

The whole article is a very good read about how to handle an interview like this.

Earlier I linked to Scott Simkus on how MLB and the Negro Leagues fared against common semi-pro opponents. In a follow up, Scott produces two tables showing how MLB and Negro League teams fared against each level of baseball.

What's fascinating is that when you compare the levels, MLB does better at every level than the Negro leagues, adding justification to my calculation that MLB would have about a .600 winning percentage against Negro league teams. When the two went head-to-head, however, the Negro League teams won 55% of the time!

That makes me wonder if:

• The Negro League teams were stacking their lineups with stars from other teams.
• MLB stars were refusing to play against blacks.

Any opinions?

Heath Bell lost 25 pounds using a Wii Fit. We bought one about a week and a half ago, and I must admit it's both fun to use and gives you a decent workout. The way it makes your Mii look fat after it weighs you is a big motivator.

By the way, my daughter nailed my Mii. It looks exactly like me.

Alex Rodriguez faces the press today at 1:30 PM EST, and Buster Olney has some questions he would like to see asked.

Odalis Perez may in breach of his contract by the end of the day. He's trying to hold out for more money:

First of all, the mandatory report date, per arrangements in the current collective bargaining agreement, is Feb. 22. With one exception. For players who will be competing in the World Baseball Classic, the mandatory report date is Feb. 17 -- today. Perez said that he plans to represent the Dominican Republic in the WBC, and that potentially opens the door for Perez to be in breach of contract by day's end.

But that brings up the second issue.

The Nationals are insisting that Perez's contract has been approved, signed and sealed. Perez might have grounds to argue otherwise, though, because his contract does not yet appear in the database of MLBPA-approved contracts. Perez wants to improve on the non-guaranteed minor league deal he signed with Washington almost two weeks ago, and the first way to do that is to argue against the validity of his current deal.

Good job by Jim Bowden here making the signing of the contract crystal clear.

Scott Simkus compares Negro League and Major League statistics against a common opponent, white semi-pro leagues. What he finds is that both sets of players pound the semi-pro players, giving us a good idea of how the Negro Leagues compared to the Major Leagues at the time.

Although he doesn't post the numbers, Scott's statistics do indicate that in one dimension of the game the Major Leaguers were superior; they walked more. The Negro Leaguers posted a higher batting average, but the Major Leaguers scored more runs per game. The reason is that they used many fewer at bats per 154 games, and those missing at bats likely were walks.

The other thing I believe we can do is figure out the winning percentage of the majors against the Negro Leagues. Using the log5 method (and assuming 4.5 runs per game league average for the majors and the minors), the Majors should outscore the Negro Leagues 4.18 runs to 3.36 on a per game basis. That would indicate a .607 winning percentage in favor of the Major Leaguers.

Someone should probably check my math on that one.

Hat tip, The Hardball Times.

The Pirates sign Nate McLouth to a three-year contract, buying up his arbitration years. Without knowing the money, it's likely a very good deal. Nate is just reaching his peak, and the last two years showed improvement in both his ability to get on base and hit for power. The Pirates lock up a good player with cost certainty.

Update: McLouth gets almost $16 million for the three years.

Bud Selig is upset that people blame him for the steroid era:

"I don't want to hear the commissioner turned a blind eye to this or he didn't care about it," Selig said. "That annoys the you-know-what out of me. You bet I'm sensitive to the criticism. The reason I'm so frustrated is, if you look at our whole body of work, I think we've come farther than anyone ever dreamed possible."

Bud blames the union for fighting him on the issue. It's a valid point, but Bud was in charge, and fair or not, the person in charge gets the blame. Maybe if Bud and the owners hadn't spent the 1970s, 1980s and early 1990s trying to rid themselves of the union, they might have gained more cooperation when people started to realize that players were using PEDs.

Oriole Central talks to Michael Westbay, an expert on Japanese baseball, about Koji Uehara.

Ken Griffey, Jr. received offers from both the Mariners and Braves, and is expected to decide on Tuesday which he will accept.

For the past year or so, Griffey has talked as if Seattle were the one place he wanted to be, but the Braves made an attractive enough offer to get him to think about returning to the National League and staying just a short flight from Orlando. Griffey, in fact, has been campaigning for a job in Atlanta, the MLB.com report said. Griffey reportedly contacted Braves third baseman Chipper Jones and made sure Wren knew he was interested.

I think he would be better as a designated hitter right now, but I also understand his desire to be close to home.

Don Wakamatsu not only has to prepare the Mariners for baseball, but he's also trying to improve the culture of his clubhouse:

Don Wakamatsu knew before he took the job as Seattle's manager that this 101-loss team's chemistry was toxic. It's been polluted by issues with and jealousies of Suzuki, Seattle's All-Star and Gold Glove outfielder and most marketable asset. The first-time manager is trying to change that environment by fostering trust through one-on-one meetings with every player that go beyond just baseball.

"I did my homework. I talked to several players from last year," Wakamatsu said Monday. "I am fully aware of the rumblings, or people's perception of it.

"I want to focus on creating that environment where maybe we bring the favoritism a little bit close to equality."

Good luck to him. Of course, the best thing he can do is get the team winning again. It's easier to tolerate jerks when your team is in contention. We didn't hear about these problems two years ago when the Mariners were over .500.

Mike Napoli's shoulder is coming along slowly:

"I'm doing everything but catching," Napoli said Monday. "I have someone throwing the ball back for me."

Unfortunately, catchers can't use a designated thrower. He'll probably DH some early in the season.

Mike Lowell talks about the possibility of the Red Sox signing Mark Teixeira:

"You feel hurt, but I think that's a normal human reaction that anyone would have. It just kind of shows you that sometimes this sport is really a business and you have to treat it that way and you go from there. It doesn't take away any excitement or how I like the guys who I play with on the field. I'm on a team that has a chance to win the World Series. I don't know too many people who can say that, even in the big leagues that each year you're on a team that has a chance to win the World Series. I'm still really excited about that, but it wasn't the greatest process in the world."

If a trade was needed, the Red Sox would not have been able to move him until he proved to other clubs that he was healthy after the surgery, especially at his age. That means he would have had to arrive in camp with an unsettling feeling.

"I envisioned a very awkward scene with me and Youkilis taking ground balls at third," Lowell said. "I'm glad that was avoided."

The Red Sox trying to sign Teixeira also makes me wonder just what the Red Sox think of Lowell's ability to bounce back. Right now, I'm sure they're very supportive, but we'll see how long that will last. We'll also see who gets the opening day start at the position, since Lowell doesn't think he'll be ready.

Joe Mauer is taking it slow this spring due to his kidney surgery. I thought doctors went through the back for the kidneys, but Joe is waiting for his abdominal muscles to heal. Would any surgeons in the audience care to comment on why his abs were cut?

Will Ohman has three offers, but it sounds like he's waiting for a better team to come calling:

Will Ohman, one of the top relievers left on baseball's free agent market, has major league offers in hand from the Pittsburgh Pirates, Florida Marlins and San Diego Padres, but plans to continue discussions with three contending teams before making a decision on his destination for 2009, his agent said Monday.

The Phillies, Mets and Dodgers have all stayed in touch with Ohman, but their interest has yet to progress beyond the talking stage.

In his six years in the majors, Ohman's strikeouts and home runs are very good, but he walks a few too many. Still, he seems like a player that can help a contender.

Albert Pujols won't play for the Dominican Republic in the WBC:

Pujols says he is 100 percent physically "but the insurance does not want to cover" him to play, leaving the Dominican Republic without one of its biggest stars. He made the comments Monday during a conference call with Dominican baseball officials.

Pujols had elbow surgery in October.

I assume this is the insurance that pays off the Cardinals if Albert gets hurt. This announcement has to increase the chance of the other teams in the WBC winning.

David Ortiz says his wrist is healed:

Ortiz, looking slimmer than last season, said his left wrist has healed 100 percent after heeding Dr. Thomas Gill's advice to take two months off and then resuming his hitting program. Ortiz said once he returned to hitting he was fine, and the "popping" noise he heard and felt in his wrist was gone.

"I'm feeling fine right now," he said. "I have no problem swinging."

We'll see. Ortiz also talks about how he'd like to have Manny back.

It's been a bad medical day for the Houston Astros. They detected an irregular heartbeat in Mike Hampton, and Jose Valverde is suffering from an arm infection:

Astros manager Cecil Cooper and Ed Wade were optimistic that both scenarios wouldn't be a problem, but Valverde will wait to see how he awakes Tuesday morning and Hampton is expected to be examined in Houston.

Hampton left Osceola County Stadium after a brief workout to catch a flight to Houston, where Astros team physician Dr. Jim Muntz planned to examine the veteran lefthander later in the afternoon. Barring any complications, Hampton was expected to "undergo a procedure to correct his heartbeat with the application of electrical current," the club announced.

"It was a little bit of a concern earlier, but big boy (Valverde) threw today. And he didn't feel a whole lot, so apparently he's going to be OK," Cooper said of Hampton. "We did have a couple of scares, but it looks like everything's going to be fine."

Better that it happens now than during the regular season.

Hat tip, Clownvision Chronicles.

MLB, the MLBPA and the Diamondbacks came up with an innovative way to get Juan Cruz signed and the Diamondbacks compensation:

Free agents cannot be traded before June 15 without their consent, but the union will permit Cruz and other Type A players to waive that right, according to Rob Manfred, baseball's executive vice-president of labor relations.

Such a waiver would enable the Diamondbacks to trade Cruz immediately after signing him. The D-backs would need to strike a deal within a set amount of time, probably 48 hours, major-league sources say. If no trade were completed, Cruz would remain a free agent.

"Historically, the union has been reluctant to allow advance waivers on blocking trades," Manfred said. "They've expressed a willingness to allow it. We've given clubs advice on how to operate given the union's willingness."

The increased flexibility in the procedure also could apply to second baseman Orlando Hudson and shortstop Orlando Cabrera, two other Type A free agents who face diminished markets because of draft-pick compensation.

As far as I can tell, the free agent's former team works out a deal for the player, signs him, then trades him away. The former team gets a traded player instead of a draft pick, and the player gets a job, rather than sitting out until June so the compensation disappears.

Maybe it's time to get rid of compensation. It's seems free agents like Cruz are not truly free.

Russ Smith sits down with Peter Schmuck to talk about the 2009 Orioles.

It turns out Trevor Hoffman didn't get along with Moores or Alderson.

I'm reading Michael Lewis's latest column in the New York Times, and this paragraph fascinated me. He speaking with Daryl Morey, a former STATS, Inc. employee who went on to the MIT Sloan Business School and became GM of the Houston Rockets:

When I ask Morey if he can think of any basketball statistic that can't benefit a player at the expense of his team, he has to think hard. "Offensive rebounding," he says, then reverses himself. "But even that can be counterproductive to the team if your job is to get back on defense." It turns out there is no statistic that a basketball player accumulates that cannot be amassed selfishly. "We think about this deeply whenever we're talking about contractual incentives," he says. "We don't want to incent a guy to do things that hurt the team" -- and the amazing thing about basketball is how easy this is to do. "They all maximize what they think they're being paid for," he says. He laughs. "It's a tough environment for a player now because you have a lot of teams starting to think differently. They've got to rethink how they're getting paid."

There is such a stat in baseball, runs. For an individual to score a lot of runs, he needs to be skilled in a number of baseball abilities; getting on base, running and hitting for power. If a player wants to drive in 100 runs in a season, he can do that by delivering in about 80 plate appearances, and do little the rest of the time. A run scorer, needs to constantly set up teammates, and take advantage of stolen base opportunities, be able to score on long hits, or hit for power himself. Another reason runs scored is a bit of an underrated stat.

I just received the latest cover of the New Yorker magazine, drawn by Barry Blit:

I'm in the "screw the children" camp when it comes to reasons to ban drugs. If a child is using a baseball player as a role model, they don't have a proper role model in their life. Secondly, a teenagers are not children. They're old enough to know the difference between right and wrong.

The drug use by Alex Rodriguez, however, does send the message that you can be very successful using performance enhancers. If you want to stop that message, then the government has to bust the player, send him to jail, and take away his money. A life-time ban by MLB just isn't going to cut it. Since I don't believe anyone is seriously considering that kind of penalty, Alex's type of doping could be very enticing.

Alex didn't turn into a monster with his drug use. There's no physical deformity as far as I can tell (and he did manage to father two children). He didn't turn into the incredible hulk, he didn't go bald. There aren't reports of 'roid rage. He's really rich and still attracts women. It's not easy to paint Alex as a monster, so a teenager might look at him and say, "with limited use and the right drug, I can get better and stay healthy." That's tough to counter with dire warnings.

Via BBTF, Albert Pujols is starting to make noises about leaving the Cardinals after the 2010 season:

"It's not about the money all the time," the first baseman said. "It's about being in a place to win and being in a position to win.

"If the Cardinals are willing to do that and put a team (on the field) every year like they have, I'm going to try to work everything out to stay in this town. But if they're not bringing championship caliber play every year, then it's time for me to go somewhere else that I can win."

It's almost always about the money. FanHouse wonders if Albert is making noise now because the Cardinals didn't sign Manny Ramirez.

What should the Cardinals do? Albert is one of the game's great players, but he will be 31 going into the 2011 season. That was the brilliant thing about his long term contract, it locked Pujols in through his prime years. It's likely a 31-year-old Albert is worth more than the great majority of 27 year olds, but for how long? If a player is trying to dictate to a team, maybe the money is better spent looking for his replacement.

The Cardinals have won a World Series, after all, and are playoff contenders nearly every season. Yes, they didn't go all out in 2008 and appear to have done little to improve the team in 2009. While they don't make a splash, they do get a lot of mileage out of marginal players. I suspect they're reloading, and Albert will likely want to be part of the 2011 team.

Barring a major injury, the Cardinals will find a way to keep Pujols around. Like Gwynn or Ripken or Yount or Brett with their career teams, Albert is the face of the Cardinals. I suspect they'll find a way for him to finish his career in St. Louis.

The new spring training facility in Tampa Bay features multiple person hot and cold tubs.

The tubs can usually hold "at least six," Howell said. "If Percy's in there, we've got four then. You didn't hear that from me, though."

Exclusive video:

Hanley Ramirez added close to 25 pounds of muscle this off-season:

Ramirez stepped on a scale, calibrated his weight, and smiled.

''224,'' he said. ``Close.''

Ramirez, who was listed at 200 pounds in last season's media guide, dedicated himself to a strict conditioning program over the winter to help him feel and play stronger over the course of a 162-game schedule.

That meant spending at least an hour a day, five days a week, working out in a gym in the Dominican Republic and another hour at home swimming laps in his backyard pool.

The weight training added bulk and muscle to Ramirez's torso while the swimming program was designed to strengthen his weak left shoulder, which has caused him problems in the past.

''I don't feel heavy,'' Ramirez said. ``I feel good.''

Ramirez is a young man, but whenever I hear a story like this, I'm reminded of how it's impossible to gain 15 pounds of muscle in an off-season.

Erik Bedard threw off a mound for the first time since his surgery on Sunday.

"He looked in shape and he looked healthy," Wakamatsu said. "We're not trying to put all the attention on one guy. I think it was a big help, the meeting I had with him before the season. I got to know him, and we've built a good relationship. He's got a good sense of humor. He just doesn't want to be the center of attention.

"That's fine. As long as he goes out there every five days, we'll be happy."

A healthy Bedard would give the Mariners a big boost in 2009. With the AL West looking like a weak division, that could help them compete for a division title.

Alex Rodriguez apologized to Selena Roberts for the comments he made during his ESPN interview.

It was a magic day for Ervin Santana as he signed a four-year, $30 million contract with the Angels. That clears the Angels arbitration slate.

It's a great deal for Anaheim. If Ervin repeats his 2008 season, the Angels get that production cheap. If Santana reverts to pitching poorly on the road, then the money's just about right. It's a win for both sides, as neither needs to worry about arbitration again.

Jerry Manuel is thinking of batting Luis Castillo in the leadoff spot with Jose Reyes batting second. At this point in their career the two own similar OBAs. Reyes, however, possesses more power, which is more useful with someone on base in front of him.

Jorge Posada's shoulder is holding up well so far:

Posada believes he will be ready to catch on April 6 in the Yankees' season opener in Baltimore. "I'll be there," Posada said Saturday after the team's pitchers and catchers had their first official workout of spring training. "Shoulder-wise, I know I'll be ready.

"I'm very happy, very positive. Every time I throw, I feel the improvement and I'm happy with the results."

Posada had surgery last July - he described it as "a major operation" - and has endured grueling rehab since. He feels no twinges when he throws, nor when he takes batting practice. Saturday, he made 90 throws during drills, he said, piggybacking for the first time on an intense session of 140 throws on Friday. "There were no restrictions on me throwing the 90," Posada said.

Posada's offense from behind the plate is what helps give the Yankees an edge. He makes it much more difficult for pitchers to find a break in the New York lineup.

LyfLines find a great example of how players value loyalty.

The Atlanta Braves are competing with the Seattle Mariners for the services of Ken Griffey, Jr.

Atlanta apparently wants Griffey to platoon in left field. With the Mariners, he'd likely be limited to designated-hitter duty.

As the left-handed part of the platoon, Ken would get plenty of playing time and a decent amount of rest. It does sound like a good situation for him. The Braves received little power from left field last season, the group combining for a .352 slugging percentage.

Both Brett Myers and Ryan Howard lost weight over the off season. There seems to be no resting on their laurels for the Phillies this year.

The last eight World Champions failed to defend their title. That's starting to approach the longest streaks. From 1979 to 1992 no team successfully defended a title, 14 seasons. There was a ten year streak from 1963 to 1972, an eight year streak from 1954 to 1961 (it only seemed like the Yankees won every year) and a ten year streak from 1940 to 1949. If the Phillies fail to repeat this season, we'll be tied for the third longest streak since the modern World Series was instituted in 1903.

I didn't think much the latest witness against Barry Bonds until I read this.

Though you likely don't know who Hoskins is, this is important because she claims that she watched Greg Anderson inject Barry Bonds. She apparently doesn't know what Anderson injected Bonds with, but it's looking kind of bleak for Bonds, especially given Bonds' prior testimony that no one except his doctors ever injected him with anything.

It would be sad if prosecutors got Bonds on lying about being injected, rather than lying about actually using steroids.

The Angels avoid arbitration with Maicer Izturis, leaving just Ervin Santana's hearing looming.

The Angels and infielder Maicer Izturis split their differences, the club announcing Wednesday it had signed last season's opening-day shortstop to a one-year contract worth $1.6 million.

Izturis, 28, who batted .269 in 79 games before missing the last six weeks after surgery to repair a torn ligament in his left thumb, was seeking $1.89 million. The Angels' arbitration offer was $1.4 million.

That's not quite splitting the difference, but here are incentives in the contract that would put Maicer over the mid-point if met.

Update: Darren Oliver also avoided arbitration.

Alex Rodriguez faced a crowd at the University of Miami last night, and according to this report, the crowd received him very well:

Despite Rodriguez's admission that his name was on a list of 104 players who tested positive for banned substances in 2003, everyone seemed in a forgiving mood at the dedication of the baseball stadium for which the Yankees third baseman donated $4 million.

"I think Alex Rodriguez should be in the Hall of Fame," said Jim Berlin, a Miami football and baseball season ticket-holder who paid $75 to attend the sold-out shindig. "He has done so much good that it outweighs the little bit of bad."

Confession seems to have been the right way to go for Alex. Of course, he hasn't had to deal with road crowds yet.

Selena Roberts's book about Alex Rodriguez will be available a month early, just in time for the opening of Yankee Stadium. I wonder if it will be available at the souvenir stands?

My only thought is, "Stuck on stupid."

Via Instapundit, a drug that increase the ability to exercise by increasing the amount of oxygen transferred from haemoglobin to muscles. The article can't help but issue a warning:

As a result, Lehn hopes to begin clinical trials "as soon as possible". For athletes tempted to use the substance to enhance performance, he warns: "It could be very easily detected."

I could see a player using this instead of speed to get through rough patches of the season. I could also see where it would easy for doctors to prescribe this (like they do ADHD medicine) because an older player's oxygen uptake isn't what it's supposed to be. The targets just keep moving. Maybe we shouldn't worry about it that much.

A Giants fan enjoys the finanical problems the Dodgers suffered moving to Arizona.

Former player Ted Uhlaender passed away. My thought go out to his family and friends.

Last spring I used the Lineup Analysis Tool to predict how many runs per game teams would score during the season. Marcel the Monkey forecasts for OBA and Slug were entered for the likely starting lineup for each team. I promised to revisit the data, and here how the predictions compare to actual team runs per game:

Runs per game, 2008

Team	Predicted Runs Scored	Actual Runs Scored
NYY	5.89	4.87
BOS	5.78	5.22
CLE	5.6	4.97
DET	5.58	5.07
TB	5.45	4.78
CHW	5.29	4.98
TEX	5.28	5.56
LAA	5.2	4.72
ATL	5.18	4.65
PHI	5.15	4.93
OAK	5.14	4.01
BAL	5.12	4.86
TOR	5.1	4.41
COL	5.1	4.61
NYM	4.98	4.93
MIL	4.97	4.63
CHC	4.92	5.31
MIN	4.87	5.09
SEA	4.87	4.14
HOU	4.84	4.42
LAD	4.84	4.32
KC	4.82	4.27
STL	4.76	4.81
FLA	4.64	4.78
CIN	4.6	4.35
SD	4.57	3.93
ARZ	4.51	4.44
PIT	4.48	4.54
WSH	4.44	3.98
SF	3.99	3.95

The correlation is 0.61, which is a bit better than random but not great. Oakland was the biggest outlier on the downside, while Cubs had the biggest upside from the prediction.

Here's the data in graphical form (click graph for a larger image).

When I run the numbers this year, I'll include the result according to the regression equation. That should give us a somewhat more realistic view of a team's offense, since the projected starting lineup never plays every inning of every game.

The NCAA gets whacked in court, and Andrew Oliver can play ball again. Not only that, the court ruled:

the NCAA cannot restrict a player's right to have legal representation when negotiating a professional contract

Good. I hope more players start taking on more NCAA rules. It's time to rebel against the unnecessary regulations that make life difficult for student athletes.

Hat tip, The Hardball Times. Craig posted other links there, including this one hypothesising that the draft may be in trouble. That would be another positive outcome of this decision.

I've heard through the grapevine that pitchers and catchers report today.

The Florida Marlins payroll is going to be a bit bigger than hoped as Dan Uggla wins his arbitration hearing.

Independent arbitrators sided with the All-Star second baseman, awarding him the $5.35 million contract he requested. The Marlins offered to pay Uggla $4.4 million this season.

The Marlins part with a bit more of their revenue sharing money, but in return they get one of the best offensive middle infields in the league.

Ben Sheets underwent surgery on Tuesday and may make it back for the second half of the 2009 season. We could see more intense bidding in July than we've seen all winter.

I've seen a number of posts today that Ken Griffey, Jr. was close to signing with the Mariners, but Ken says no.

"We don't know what we're doing next year with respect to Seattle. It's all rumors," Griffey said Thursday after finishing his round at the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am in California.

Would the Dodgers try to use Griffey as leverage against Manny now that Abreu and Dunn are out of the picture?

I wonder if A-Rod's PED confession is going to cut down on his ability to get two women at once? :-)

Hat tip, Deadspin.

The Cardinals agreed to a deal with Rick Ankiel, just before they went into the hearing.

"We are excited to get this deal done and put the process behind us," general manager John Mozeliak said in a statement. "Everyone felt that this agreement was fair to both parties and we can now look forward to another strong season of play from Rick."

The Cardinals have one arbitration case remaining with outfielder Ryan Ludwick due for a hearing on Feb. 17. Ludwick is seeking $4.25 million while the Cardinals have offered $2.8 million.

That's a huge difference, and I can see where that one may go to a hearing. My sense is that the Cardinals have a better handle on Ludwick's value than Ryan does.

A-Rod's obituary:

While there is no evidence to suggest foul play, some in the baseball community have speculated that A-Rod actually succumbed to self-inflicted injuries. Immediately after the tragedy was announced, former baseball player and fellow 40/40 club member Jose Canseco told reporters that he saw A-Rod's demise coming a mile away.

"There is no doubt in my mind that he did this to himself," Canseco said. "All the warning signs were there: the surprising power from a shortstop, the spike in home runs, the mood swings where he acted like a complete idiot. The guy has been knocking on death's door since 2003, and everyone wanted to pretend like it wasn't true. I'm not going to get into it too much here because the rest will be in my book coming out next month."

Added Canseco: "Trust me, Albert Pujols will be dead inside a year."

Let's hope not.

Most of Roger Clemens's defamation suit against Brian McNamee was thrown out today.

Ellison did not dismiss the portions of the lawsuit detailing McNamee's discussions with Andy Pettitte about Roger Clemens that occurred in Texas. But since Andy Pettitte has stated under oath that Clemens used HGH/steroids, then Clemens stands very little chance of winning that portion of the suit.

So not only did Roger lose his reputation, he wasted a lot of money chasing a lawsuit that he was bound to lose.

A tape of Alex Rodriguez before steroids:

Halos Heaven looks at the worst season Bobby Abreu might post for the Angels.

It's sort of sad, however, that he is making less money than Gary Matthews, Jr.

Boras Blog is looking for the Dodgers to capitulate on Manny Ramirez very soon. I still wish some other team would step in and suprise us.

Brian Cashman says just the right things today:

But Cashman, addressing the media at the team's minor league complex, wasn't ready to say he was confident that Rodriguez was clean during his Yankee years. In talking about the game in general, he said, "I'm not confident about anything in the past anymore."

"From (2004) on, we've had testing procedures in place -- that's the best I can go off of," Cashman said. "I'm not here to represent I'm confident of anything of anybody. We've lived through a tough stretch that has shattered that confidence level. If you asked me that question five years ago, I'd be giving you a different answer."

Exactly. We're in a low confidence environment. It's going to be tough to defend anyone.

Sky Kalkman is running a poll measuring disappointment in various entities revolving around the steroid issue. Help him get a decent sample size by voting. If you want to be unbiased, vote first and then come back and read why I voted the way I did.

Red Sox catching prospect Mark Wagner says Clay Buchholz is in mid-season form. He obviously didn't look at Clay's number in July and August last year. :-)

With the Nationals signing Adam Dunn, Nick Johnson asked for a trade. Dave at U.S.S. Mariner thinks he'd be perfect in Seattle.

Update: Dunn playing first base isn't set in stone. The Nationals will give Nick Johnson a chance to show he's healthy. The danger, of course, is that Johnson wins the job then gets hurt in May. Trading him and giving the job to Dunn might be the better long-term move for the team.

Roberto Alomar reponds to his former girlfriend's lawsuit at RobertoAlomar.com.

It's the 200th anniversary of the birth of two great men of the 19th century. I'm sure you're all aware of Abraham Lincoln's birthday, but on that same day in 1809, Charles Darwin came into this world as well. Check out Blogging the Origin for a chapter by chapter summary of The Origin of Species, published 150 years ago. The two would lead the world to great changes in the second half of the 1800s.

May 27, 1968, pales in comparison.

Alex Rodriguez hired a crisis management firm.

The company, interestingly enough, also employs Bonnie Bernstein. I wonder if she helped him prep for that ESPN interview? According to their web site, here is what they'll do for a client in a crisis:

Assemble a team and build a War Room to coordinate and manage the people, process, and media in real time. Host a strategy session with your team to define objectives, expectations, success metrics, and confirm the pertinent facts and timelines.

At least Alex is doing his part to keep the economy going. Maybe the government chasing steroid users is part of the stimulus. :-)

Joel Jacobsen sends along this article from Scientific American, an interview with a physiologist and former steroid user.

Here's another reason to like Joe Maddon, he makes sense on the steroids issue.

Maddon suggested Wednesday that MLB implement an amnesty program for the reported 103 other players who tested positive then take strong measures to make sure there are no future violations.

"I'm just looking forward to the day that we move beyond it," Maddon said upon arrival at the new spring training complex. "For me, it really needs to come to the point where I'd like to see like an amnesty, basically, and move forward, and then create a situation where the penalties are so severe, nobody would ever even consider doing it again.

I suggested something similar in a BP article a couple of years ago (subscription required). Let people come forward to confess. Find out why they did it, how they acquired the drugs, and in general get a better understanding of the whole steroid era. I doubt that will happen now.

Selena Roberts tells the story of her Alex Rodriguez scoop to the New York Observer. The last paragraph indicates there's more to come:

"The book is still a work in progress," said her book editor, Mr. Hirshey. "I assure you she has more drug revelations as well as other news. Not everything that Selena has on A-Rod's steroid participation has come out yet."

Hat tip, Deadspin.

Peter Abraham looks at the comparative advantages the Braves and Yankees hold in players and suggests that interleague trade might occur.

Fire Jim Bowden prints the list.

The Nationals reportedly sign Adam Dunn. Finally, some team is willing to spend a little money on a bargain. They get a premier power hitter for two years, $20 million.

I'm somewhat surprised he received twice as much money as Abreu, but Adam is much younger.

Does Miguel Tejada face the possibility of deportation?

And though I don't deal with immigration law, several of my colleagues who do have informed me that Crimes of Moral Turpitude, which includes lying to Congress, can be rather a problem to immigrants. I'm pretty sure that Tejada's attorneys have it as part of the plea that Tejada's immigration status will not be affected, but the law, from what I've been told, does allow for the deportation of immigrants who commit such crimes, and it also allows immigration officers to forbid immigrants from entering the country.

I'm sure that Tejada's attorneys have an understanding with the Feds that Tejada's immigration status won't be affected, but it's still an interesting topic to think about. Still, we probably won't know anything further on this until his sentencing hearing on March 26. And it's going to be interesting to see just what it is Tejada admits to this afternoon.

I would find it hard to believe that Miguel would agree to a deal that left open the possibility of deportation.

ShysterBall wants to see a no vote on the Marlins new stadium.

The Angels signed Bobby Abreu to a one-year, $5 million contract. What a deal. I can't believe one of those good small market teams wouldn't offer Bobby more. Doesn't anyone besides the Angels know a bargain when they see one?

Now that Abreu is signed, will Dunn and Ramirez follow quickly? Dunn has to be thinking he won't get much more, and why pay Manny $25 million when Abreu is worth just $5 million. Manny's a better hitter, but not five times better.

TangoTiger posts a table of runs and RBI by lineup position and event (single, double, etc.). (Actual table here.) I think the runs column makes a very good case for batting your worst hitter eighth and a secondary leadoff man ninth.

Darryl Strawberry penned a book about his days with the Mets, who appeared to be lusty, zesty men.

"We were the boys of summer. The drunk, speed-freak, sneaking-a-smoke boys of summer," writes onetime home-run legend Darryl Strawberry in "Straw: Finding My Way," out in April from Ecco. "[An] infamous rolling frat party . . . drinking, drugs, fights, gambling, groupies."

I remember talking to a colleague of mine who worked on Mets broadcasts about Keith Hernandez. I made some comment about Keith Hernandez stopping cocaine use after his conviction, and my friends said, "What makes you think he stopped?" Keith and Ron Darling might have an interesting time in the Mets booth this summer.

Miguel Tejada pled guilty today:

Tejada's guilty plea grew out of statements he made to House investigators denying that he knew anyone in baseball who used performance-enhancing drugs.

His assertions in 2005 were contradicted by evidence that he had talked to an Oakland teammate about his steroids use and later purchased what he believed was human growth hormone from that player.

Is this really the best they can do, convict someone for lying about talking to other people? They couldn't even get him to admit to drug use. Pathetic.

The more I see of the way Congress acts the more I'm pushed over to the libertarian position that drugs should be legal.

Not to be outdone by Ichiro, Akinori Iwamura can pitch, too.

The question of the day (now that the print edition of Sports Illustrated is out); was Alex Rodriguez taking steroids when he joined the Yankees? I don't quite follow the logic:

1. A-Rod fails drug test in 2003.
2. Gene Orza allegedly tips Alex to the date of his 2004 test.
3. Therefore, Alex was juicing in 2004.

This implies that Orza not only knew Alex failed a test, but that Orza knew Rodriguez continued to use in 2004. More likely, if indeed Orza tipped players, was that he simply tipped those who tested positive. If you take A-Rod at his word in his Gammons interview, he never confided in others that he had cheated. Orza's warning, in my mind, carries very little evidence.

Joel Sherman post three good questions for Alex Rodriguez:

You portrayed yourself as being naive about steroid use prior to your Texas years, saying to ESPN "before that (signing with the Rangers) I had never even heard of the idea of taking any substance." However, from the mid-1990s forward your now ex-wife was an avid bodybuilder, your inner circle as a couple was made up of many bodybuilders, and both of you were gym rats at a time when steroids were rampant in bodybuilding circles and gyms. So how is it possible that you "had never even heard of the idea of taking any substance?"

That was the first thing that came to mind when I read Alex's opening statement. He was not that young when he joined the Rangers, and he's a pretty intelligent individual.

Via The Hardball Times, Roberto Alomar is being sued for having sex while infected with AIDS:

Baseball great Roberto Alomar has full-blown AIDS but insisted on having unprotected sex, his ex-girlfriend charged Tuesday in a bombshell lawsuit.

The shocking claim was leveled by Ilya Dall, 31, who said she lived with the ex-Met for three years and watched in horror as his health worsened.

In papers filed in state and federal court, Dall said Alomar finally got tested in January 2006 while suffering from a cough, fatigue and shingles.

"The test results of him being HIV-positive was given to him and the plaintiff on or about Feb.6, 2006," the $15 million negligence suit says.

Read the rest for denials by Alomar's lawyer and Sandy Alomar Sr. Also this:

In April 2005, Alomar told Dall he was suffering from erectile dysfunction and confided "he was raped by two Mexican men after playing a ballgame in New Mexico or a Southwestern state when he was 17," the suit says.

I used to hear some juicy rumors about Alomar's sex life when I worked at ESPN in the 1990s. I would not be surprised if he turned out to be HIV positive.

The Rays win the arbitration case with Dioner Navarro, but without causing any rancor:

"Navi wants to thank the Rays organization for making this a fair debate and for handling the hearing with class," agent Kendall Almerico said. "He is very excited to report to spring training and help the team get back to the World Series."

Arbitration hearings have the potential to cause hard feelings as teams sometimes downgrade their players, and Almerico suggested there could be ramifications if the Rays didn't treat Navarro "respectfully" as they argued for their $2.1 million offer instead of his $2.5 million request.

Executive vice president Andrew Friedman said the Rays -- now 4-0 in hearings -- were glad to have the "never ideal" process behind them.

Good. Navarro seems to understand the proper place of these hearings, and is happy to walk away with a big pay increase.

Bobby Abreu is talking to the Angels about a one-year deal. I wonder if this will get Seattle or Texas interested, if for no other reason than to drive up the price.

Dodger Thoughts notes Joe Torre's line on gay ballplayers during his Larry King interview:

Ventura, Calif., Viewer: Billy Bean, after he retired, he announced he was gay. Do you foresee a time in the future when an active player can safely announce he's gay and if he did, what effect would that have on Major League Baseball?

Joe Torre: Well that's a great question, I don't know. But I just hope that an active player, if that's the case, can feel free to do that. That's all I can say. But I don't know. Obviously, you have 25 players in the clubhouse, and, you know, it's going to be tough for everybody to feel as maybe I do. But I'd like to believe our country is turning in that direction.

Larry King: You'd have no problem?

Torre: I'd have no problem.

Good for Joe. I'd like to see more managers and ballplayers come forward and say this.

The always thoughtful Doug Glanville makes a great point in his article on Alex Rodriguez:

We should step back and think about what we really want to gain from this situation. While I was playing professionally, it was disturbing to watch players cut corners through chemical means to get to that next contract. But I don't see the good in selling our souls while claiming we want to chase the devil from our midst.

I hope we learn how to keep our word. If the tested players had known up front that the results were going to be made public (or that there was even a chance that they might be), not a single one would have agreed to cooperate, and it has very little to do with hiding anything. It has everything to do with privacy. Being A-Rod should not change that fact.

I've written about this before, but it needs to be repeated. Drug testing in baseball represented a break through in owner-player relations, as it demonstrated how the two sides could cooperate to try to improve the game. In the future, some other scandal may emerge that requires the anonymous cooperation of players. That's never going to happen again.

The Clownvision Chronicles alerts me to this story on Miguel Tejada:

Houston Astros shortstop Miguel Tejada was charged with lying to Congress about performance- enhancing drug use in Major League Baseball.

Tejada "unlawfully, willingly and knowingly" failed to state his full knowledge of an unidentified player's use of steroids and human growth hormone in meetings with the investigators in August 2005, U.S. Attorney Jeffrey Taylor said in a criminal information filed today in Washington.

The filing of a criminal information generally signals that a plea agreement is close. Tejada, a citizen of the Dominican Republic who has a U.S. work permit, is scheduled to appear in U.S. District Court at 11 a.m. Wednesday, a spokesman for the court said.

Miguel is not accused of taking a banned substance, just lying about what he knew about others taking them. I wonder who the others are and if they've been punished. I wonder how Miguel gets caught and Palmeiro gets away with lying to Congress?

Michael Rand examines the Baseball Prospectus data and decides the Twins need more offense. There are plenty of good bats available. Now would be a good time for the Pohlads to stimulate the team with an infusion of cash. You're not going to get a better bargain on players like Abreu, Dunn and Ramirez.

A congressman is calling for Alex Rodriguez to testify before a committee. Why not just make lying to Peter Gammons a crime and go from there?

Gaslamp Ball posts a very funny story about A-Rod's life coach.

Cameron Martin posts the PECOTA standings for 2009. It sure looks like a lousy year is in store for fans. Six teams win 90 games, but three of them are in the AL East. The rest of the American League stinks, including the division winners in the Central and West.

The NL East dominates as well, with no close pennant races and a tie for the wild card. I sure hope the season doesn't play out this way.

However, it's a little early to be looking at projections. There are still a number of team changing free agents on the market. If I'm in charge of one of the teams listed on the edge of a division here, I'm getting on the phone to see who I can land.

Wezen-Ball reminds us of Snoopy's pursuit of Babe Ruth's home run record. Charles Schultz did a nice job of skewering those who hated Aaron as he approached 714 home runs.

It's amazing how much negative publicity pursuing the home run record engenders. Even people who were not overtly racist in their reaction to Aaron passing Ruth talked about how Ruth was the better hitter, how he accomplished his feat in fewer at bats and hit for a higher average. Over the years, of course, Aaron became the venerated figure, so whoever approached Henry's record was going to come in for some scrutiny. If it takes 30 years to pass Bonds, I wonder if that person will be welcomed, or if the next generation of sports writers will be as protective of Barry as their ancestors were of Ruth and Aaron.

Bob Raissman felt Peter Gammons offered up too many softballs in the Alex Rodriguez interview. I would have loved to hear Peter tear into Alex about not knowing what drugs he was taking. Fortunately, we have the New York sports media, which has plenty of red meat left. I suspect their questioning will be much harsher in a few days.

The story on Gene Orza has gone from "Gene tipped off players about drug tests" to "Gene selectively told players they were on the government seized list."

Either way, according to two sources close to players, Orza's mission was obvious and widely known among the players.

"If Orza was looking for you, he was letting you know you failed a test," said one source. "The players found it odd because they thought it was supposed to be confidential. It was like he was on a crusade to warn people."

"Orza was going around in the Yankee locker room and letting players know," another source said. "At one point he was asking where he could find A-Rod."

If Orza only told players who tested positive about the list, then he was tipping without tipping. I don't have a real problem with that, however. The whole idea of testing, after all, was to drive the drugs out of the sport. If positive tests in 2003 did that, it's a good outcome.

Via The Hardball Times, whoever leaked the Alex Rodriguez test results likely broke the law:

Not only are the records from the 2003 raid under seal, but also Illston and two other federal judges have ordered that anyone who publicly disclosed those records would be found in contempt. In a statement Saturday, Major League Baseball's Player Association reiterated that point: "Anyone with knowledge of such documents who discloses their contents may be in violation of those court orders."

Though determining who was responsible for the leak could prove difficult, Illston has several options. "Federal judges have extraordinary power," said John Bartko, a former assistant U.S. attorney.

Leakers are difficult to find, because the reporters won't talk. I could imagine Selena Roberts being sent to jail for contempt would only generate more publicity for her Alex Rodriguez book.

The Kindle 2: Amazon's New Wireless Reading Device (Latest Generation) is now available from Amazon. With the Kindle you can read Baseball Musings and other great blogs anywhere.

The Biz of Baseball posts an MLBPA statement on why the 2003 test samples and results were not destroyed:

Those results were finalized on Thursday, November 13, and the players were advised by a memo dated Friday, November 14. Promptly thereafter, the first steps were taken to begin the process of destruction of the testing materials and records, as contemplated by the Basic Agreement. On November 19, however, we learned that the government had issued a subpoena. Upon learning this, we concluded, of course, that it would be improper to proceed with the destruction of the materials. The fact that such a subpoena issued in November 2003 has been part of the public record for more than two years. See, U.S. v. CDT, 473 F3d at 920 (2006), and 513 F3d at 1090 (2008) (both opinions have now been vacated). Other subpoenas followed, including one for all test results.

I guess it takes more than five days to destroy evidence.

The LoHud Yankees Blog posts the team's statement on A-Rod. The closing paragraph:

"We speak often about the members of this organization being part of a family, and that is never more true than in times of adversity. Alex took a big step by admitting his mistake, and while there is no condoning the use of performance enhancing drugs, we respect his decision to take accountability for his actions. We support Alex, and we will do everything we can to help him deal with this challenge and prepare for the upcoming season."

Police back Selena Robert's statement that she's never been cited:

Meanwhile, police spokesmen in New York, Miami, Miami Beach and Coral Gables have no record of Selena Roberts being arrested, stopped or cited. Reporters are asked to leave by rent-a-cops all the time. But that's not being cited, as Rodriguez claimed on ESPN.

Tom Hicks feels betrayed by the Alex Rodriguez confession:

Hicks said there were "absolutely no suspicions whatsoever" about Rodriguez using steroids or other performance-enhancing drugs during his three seasons with the Rangers after signing a then-record $252 million, 10-year contract in December 2000.

With the growing talk about steroids at the time, Hicks said he had general conversations with A-Rod and even asked the player if he had used them.

"Not in an accusatory way," Hicks said during a conference call. "But I certainly asked the question in a way where I came away with a clear answer that he had much too much respect for his own body that God had given him to ever do anything like that to hurt it with steroids."

Hicks also wonders why he should believe the A-Rod didn't use before he came to Texas.

I'm watching the interview, and it's good that Alex said if he were a fan of his, he'd be pissed. At least he doesn't expect fans to forgive him right away.

Update: A-Rod said he didn't know he failed the test until Selena Roberts told him.

Update: ESPN needs to lose the big banner at the bottom. They're cutting off a good portion of Alex's face.

Update: Alex just said that Selena Roberts says he did steroids in high school. He also just said Roberts tried to break into his house.

Update Selena Roberts denies the allegations in a note to ESPN.

Update: One of my favorite new shows is "Lie to Me," about a group that is good at reading facial expressions and body language to detect when people are less than truthful. I'd love to find out how real experts at that responded to the interview. At 6:20, Gammons starts asking Alex if he ever told anybody. He starts rubbing his nose at that point, which supposedly is a sign of lying.

MLBAM drops the price of MLB.tv. Squawking Baseball points out:

Also keep in mind, this is all before we even consider the potential of IPTV. We're not so far from a time where you'll be able to watch your MLB.tv Mosaic player on your television, in high quality. It'll probably start cannibalizing Extra Innings sales at that point, which sucks for the cable providers, but really is no big deal for MLB. The thirty teams only get some of the profits from EI, but they own all of MLBAM. So why not push this angle?

I just bought this Roku Netflix player and I love it. Very soon it will download content from Amazon as well, meaning I can watch all my favorite shows whenever I want. If MLBAM put games on this, I would ditch my dish and go with this little unit. Maybe this will force cable and satellite providers to go with a la carte programming finally.

AZ Snakepit posts part one of an interview with Diamondbacks GM Josh Byrnes.

Ichiro's awesome quotient just went up.

Bugs and Cranks makes a good point about the steroid Alex Rodriguez took:

To be fair, some writers did google primobolan and have noted it's main characteristics. It's very expensive and helps the user add muscle without bulking up. Now, what that means is that primobolan doesn't force your body to retain water which causes noticeable bulking. Building muscle means you are getting bigger, but with primobolan you aren't going to walk around looking like you're carrying watermelons. Primobolan is also a fat-burner, sort of like taking Ripped Fuel but having it actually work. Primobolan is a favorite of competitive bodybuilders during their pre-contest routines because it allows them to become even more cut without sacrificing muscle. Basically, primobolan allows the user to gain muscle without changing their normal food consumption (it does this by telling your body to retain nitrogen which helps build muscle). However, the muscle gain is small which is why Primobolan is considered to be a weak steroid.

Basically, Alex Rodriguez took a steroid that made him as strong as he would have been if he were just going to the gym with the veracity that he reportedly does, with the difference being that instead of packing on pounds he was able to get bigger and remain cut. To put it bluntly, the advantage Rodriguez earned from primobolan was in sexiness, not in strength. I can't wait to hear someone claim that sexiness leads to additional home runs.

Alex, however, also tested positive for testosterone, which I believe does exactly what an anabolic steroid is supposed to do.

Hat tip, River Ave. Blues.

The Cardinals waive Adam Kennedy. He should be a free agent come Wednesday. If Orlando Hudson is having problems finding a job, I expect Kennedy will also.

Gene Orza denies he tipped off Alex Rodriguez to a 2004 drug test:

"It's not true," Orza said in an e-mail message. "Simple as that."

ESPN will air a Peter Gammons interview at 6 PM tonight in which Alex Rodriguez admits steroid use:

"When I arrived in Texas in 2001, I felt an enormous amount of pressure, felt all the weight of the world on top of me to perform, and perform at a high level every day," Rodriguez told ESPN's Peter Gammons in an interview in Miami Beach, Fla. The complete interview will air on SportsCenter at 6 p.m. ET.

"Back then, [baseball] was a different culture," Rodriguez said. "It was very loose. I was young, I was stupid, I was naïve. I wanted to prove to everyone that I was worth being one of the greatest players of all time.

"I did take a banned substance. For that, I am very sorry and deeply regretful."

I'll take some exception to the young, stupid statement. Alex was seasonal age 25 in 2001 and finished the six years in the majors required for free agency. Twenty five is plenty old enough to know the difference between right and wrong.

Alex isn't stupid, either. When I was at ESPN, I used to hear praise for Rodriguez's intelligence, that if he wasn't playing baseball he might have majored in math in college.

Tune in and make up your own mind.

Update: I guess my main question now is, if he lied about this before, why should we believe he only used while in Texas? His tests since are clean, as he hasn't been suspended. Canseco, however, says he introduced Alex to steroid suppliers in the late 1990s. At this point, I'm more inclined to believe Jose.

Fergie and Friends allows you to play baseball with Hall of Famers for a donation of $2500 to charity. It's expensive, but I can see where this would appeal to many baseball fans.

The Daily News reports that those negative 2003 urine samples still exist and might be retested to see if anything undetectable then is found now. So just because someone came up negative in 2003 doesn't mean he's out of the woods.

Via 6-4-2, Bleed Cubbie Blue notes Sirius/XM Radio may not make their $60 million payment to MLB. That's $2 million less per team in the till. With advertising down at parks, it's a good thing most clubs are being prudent with their money this year.

This article at MLB.com talks about the Indians contingency plans if Ben Francisco doesn't work out. There's no real reason to think he will. His minor league numbers are okay, but not great, and he's coming to the majors old.

The Indians own the second longest championship drought in the majors. Given this year's free agent market, why not do the obvious and hire Manny Ramirez short term? Offer him two years, $50 million and see what happens. That's one town where the fans shouldn't be waiting for another rebuild.

Roving reporter Jim Storer tells me that WFAN opened their 10 AM hour with snippets of A-Rod's 60 Minutes interview while playing "Tell Me Lies" in the background. Here's the original video:

Rich Lederer examines how strikeouts and grounders induced relate to pitcher success. The best pitchers appear to have high percentage of both. Two of those, Sabathia and Burnett signed with the Yankees this winter.

Phil Sheridan writes on the meaning of the Ryan Howard signing:

With this deal, the Phillies now have the core of their World Series-winning team locked up long enough to make a run at another championship or two. Howard and Cole Hamels agreed to deals this winter. Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins aren't going anywhere.

The most you can ask of a baseball team is to acquire and develop a championship-caliber nucleus of players and then follow through by paying what it takes to keep them together. That is what the Phillies have done here. And that's not bad for an organization that operated for years under the richly deserved perception that it couldn't accomplish either of those goals.

The trick now is to surround that core with good role players. We'll see over the next few years if Amaro can do better than Raul Ibanez.

Take the impact of spring training with a grain of salt when you hear politicians claim how much business it brings to an area:

Porter questions whether a six-week training camp can generate enough revenue to justify public expenditures that large.

He cites estimates that the New York Yankees' spring training operation, which moved from Fort Lauderdale to Tampa, generates $100 million annually for the local economy. If that's true, he says, Tampa's economy should have grown by $100 million when the Yankees arrived, and Fort Lauderdale would have taken a similar-sized hit.

"Did we grow and did Fort Lauderdale shrink? The answer is no," he said. "There's no change in taxable sales in the communities that lost or gained a team. ... There's no change in the hotel occupancy. Why in the world aren't these things generating the kind of impact that the governor's office says they do?"

Tourists spend plenty of money, but Porter points out a lot of the cash goes to the teams - who take their profits with them when they leave town at the end of March.

Another reason to leave building stadiums to the teams.

As Kevin Kernan notes, both Reggie Jackson and Curt Schilling are calling for the other 103 names to be released:

Mr. October though, did make this telling comment to The Post yesterday: "They caught 104 guys," Reggie asked, pausing for effect, before adding, "Why would they only name one?"

Jackson did not want to comment further, but he had made his excellent conspiracy-theory point. Exactly who is protecting the other 103 and why?

The mystery is why has only Rodriguez's name been leaked? Even Schilling believes it's time to come clean with all the names.

On his blog, "Pitches", Schilling wrote yesterday: "I'd be all for the 104 positives being named, and the game moving on if that is at all possible. In my opinion, if you don't do that, then the other 600-700 players are going to be guilty by association, forever."

Someone is talking about this list, because Kernan goes on to say "there are supposed to be some big, big stars, none though as big and bright as Rodriguez." It makes you wonder if some of the unsigned free agents might pop up.

Kat O'Brien talks about how Alex Rodriguez changed since she first covered him in 2002. She also talked to a scout about Alex's alleged steroid use:

Even though Rodriguez has never been the best-liked player of his generation, for image problems both real and perceived, the taint of steroid use never hung over him. Now it does. One longtime American League scout who has known Rodriguez for years said he had never had cause to suspect Rodriguez of steroid use. That said, the scout said it would not surprise him if A-Rod did use steroids. No, the scout said, Rodriguez is just like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, all three of whom the scout believed would do absolutely anything to be at/remain at the top of their sport.

I talked about that competitive drive in this post on Saturday.

For those just coming to the scandal after a long weekend, ShysterBall rounds up the important elements, including Gene Orza's role in all this:

In any event, it is my view that long after the Alex Rodriguez-specific portion of this drama has played itself out with an apology, a press conference, and a .300/.400/.600 season, this episode will be remembered mostly for the first known instance of the MLBPA truly betraying the interests of its own players. That, my friends, will have longer legs than anything else that broke on Saturday.

We'll see how well Alex back tracks from his denial of using steroids on 60 Minutes. Recent history tells us the best thing to do is confess and apologize, Giambi and Pettitte did that and people were forgiving. Clemens and Bonds didn't and are being dragged through court, and McGwire is getting no support for the Hall of Fame.

Shawn Haviland attended the Connecticut Sports Foundations Annual Celebrity Dinner and Memorabilia Auction Friday night. The main event was a roast of Goose Gossage. Blurry cam phone pictures were the order of the night. See the shot of Shawn and Graig Nettles at the above post. My good friend Jim Storer also attended and sends this cell phone picture of the Gossage autographed ball that was in his goodie bag:

Jim wanted to get a picture with Nettles, since when Mr. Storer was in college, he and Graig were the same height and weight.

The Kansas City Royals settle with Mark Teahen for way above the midpoint:

Teahen earned $2,337,500 last year and asked for $3.85 million in arbitration when he exchanged proposed salaries with the Royals last month. The team offered $2.75 million.

He gets $3.575 million from the Royals. Mark's a below average player. It seems to me unlikely that the Royals had much of a chance of losing that case. Maybe, as they are talking about moving Mark to second base, they thought the transition would go better if they made a generous settlement.

ESPN reports that Andruw Jones will sign a minor league deal with the Texas Rangers. He's certainly fallen a long way fast. I suppose as a hitter, Texas offers a great park for reviving an offensive career.

Phillies Nation reports Ryan Howard signs a three-year, $54 million deal. So he'll make his $18 million a year, and the Phillies won't need to worry about arbitration with him again.

Assuming that arbitration adjusts slower than the free agency market, this should be a good deal for the Phillies. If they wound up in arbitration with Howard every year, they'd probably pay more than this total. However, it's a lot of money in a down economy. Given what Teixeira received from the Yankees, however, it seems about right. Ryan's OPS+ over the last three years are 167, 144, 124. Teixeira comes in at 126, 150 and 151. They're the same age, and Teixeira is moving in a better direction, plus is a better defensive player.

Of course, Howard is clutch, so his other short comings don't really matter. :-)

The Giants would rather wait until the trade deadline to get a big bat than sign Manny Ramirez, or one of the other outfield bats now. They're depending on a weak division, but if the Dodgers do sign Ramirez, Los Angeles might run away with things. Signing Manny now prevents the Dodgers from that runaway.

Alex Rodriguez is still a great player:

I hope Alex Rodriguez didn't cheat. If we do find out that he cheated, I will wish that he hadn't. But whatever happens, I'm not going to change my opinion that he's a great baseball player. Like many of the greatest players, he'll do whatever it takes to be the best player he can be. For a stretch of five or 10 years -- and yes, perhaps even today still -- being the best player could have meant cheating. Maybe the cheaters were wrong; that's the direction in which I lean, probably because I've got a streak of the moralist in me. But I will not sit idly while great athletes looking for an edge -- not all that different from the many generations before them -- are demonized by the high priests of baseball opinion. I will not.

I understand Rob's point. To be highly successful in a sport, at the level of a Rodriguez or Bonds, you need to be so competitive that winning does become everything. We like to think our athletes are gentlemen and good losers, but it's the bad losers who tend to win championships. The truth is you wouldn't want to be friends with the highest level athletes. Their competitiveness will just drive you away. We should be that surprised that they went the extra yard to win.

This is why the steroid scandals don't bother me as much as gambling scandals. Steroids is cheating to win, gambling is cheating to lose.

JP Ricciardi keeps his record of never taking a player to arbitration by settling with pitcher Shawn Camp for $750,000. That clears the Blue Jays slate.

Shawn Hill wins his arbitration case with the Nationals, getting a $775,000 salary for 2009. He's also feeling healthy:

"Just like any other pitcher that we would have. Ready to go. No restrictions at this point," said Hill, whose career has been marked by plenty of promise and plenty of injuries. "Just trying to get tuned up."

When healthy, Hill does a good job of limiting the opposition's walks and home runs. He now needs to figure out how to limit their overall hits.

Balls, Sticks and Stuff notes the union side to the A-Rod story:

But really the most significant part of the story is flying under the radar. Also in SI.com's report is that Gene Orza, then general counsel for the players' union, was in the habit of tipping off players in 2004 as the the whens and wheres of testing. When confronted with the report before it was published online this morning, Orza did not deny the veracity, he declined to comment. In other words, it's true ladies and gentlemen.

For a senior official such as Orza to conduct a conspiracy to undermine, essentially, the collective bargaining agreement between the players and the team owners, the union's leverage in future matters is certainly damaged.

It would certainly make it interesting if the union went after the owners for collusion, and the owners went after the union for tipping off players. Offsetting fouls, anyone?

Maybe this is why the MLBPA was willing to reopen the CBA to get a new drug deal.

Update: The MLBPA denies tipping players here (see the update at the bottom).

Via River Ave. Blues, Sports Illustraded reports that Alex Rodriguez tested positive for steroids in 2003.

In 2003, when he won the American League home run title and the AL Most Valuable Player award as a shortstop for the Texas Rangers, Alex Rodriguez tested positive for two anabolic steroids, four sources have independently told Sports Illustrated.

Rodriguez's name appears on a list of 104 players who tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs in Major League Baseball's '03 survey testing, SI's sources say. As part of a joint agreement with the MLB Players Association, the testing was conducted to determine if it was necessary to impose mandatory random drug testing across the major leagues in 2004.

When approached by an SI reporter on Thursday at a gym in Miami, Rodriguez declined to discuss his 2003 test results. "You'll have to talk to the union," said Rodriguez, the Yankees' third baseman since his trade to New York in February 2004. When asked if there was an explanation for his positive test, he said, "I'm not saying anything."

There have been anonymous reports like this in the past, especially involving Albert Pujols, that turned out to be wrong. Assuming that A-Rod has been clean since 2003, I say he's a good case for arguing that steroids don't make that big an impact.

Update: Craig Calcaterra notes that Jose Canseco was right again.

The Orioles sign George Sherrill and avoid arbitration for the third year in a row.

Update: The Mets do the same by signing Pedro Feliciano.

The Braves are willing to bring back Tom Glavine, but their contract offer represents a huge pay cut:

Free agent lefthander Tom Glavine has made it known that he'd like to re-sign with the Braves, and he'll get his chance to do so. The Braves' website reports the team has offered the 305-game winner a one-year contract worth between $1 million and $2 million.

He made $9 million in 2008. I guess this means the Braves don't have a great deal of confidence in Glavine's ability to last the season or pitch well.

Fire Jim Bowden criticizes the Nationals for taking a player to arbitration over a very small amount of money:

In Hill's case, the last thing we need is for him to enter the year with damaged confidence. He's always been known as a thoughtful guy who tends to beat himself up over every little thing. And I know he's been frustrating for fans, but just think what it's like for him going through surgery after surgery and rehab after rehab. Ultimately, Hill's still a pretty talented guy, with a power sinker that could make him a solid #3 or maybe even a 2. It's just not worth messing with his head or damaging your relationship with him over such chump change.

I really wonder if the amount of money spent on the hearing is really worth it. It must be 10s of thousands of dollars and time wasted by your statistical staff that could be used evaluating players for the future. Worse, this is the second year in a row the Nationals took a low difference player all the way through the process.

At a snow covered Citi Field, the new home run apple gets installed.

We've Got Heart continues their series on women in baseball with a profile of Jane Heller, author of Confessions of a She-Fan: The Course of True Love with the New York Yankees.

Blog Talk Radio is hosting a Babe Ruth birthday bash Friday.

Finally, a place where we can get accurate information about a player's injury history. Fantasy Pitch F/X now has a tool that allows you to enter a player's name and see all his stints on the DL, the body parts he injured, and the total number of days missed. Excellent work!

Hat tip, Beyond the Boxscore.

Paul DePodesta comments on the Cliff Floyd signing, and I'm surprised by how much Paul seems to value leadership:

In an ideal world, we wanted to find a guy who could provide three primary skills: 1) the ability to do damage against RHP as either a pinch hitter, DH or occasional starter, 2) the ability to play somewhere other than 1B if need be, and 3) the ability to act as a leader for our younger players. We found a match in Cliff.

So what's Cliff VORL (value over replacement leader)?

Washington unveiled a new slogan today:

Anyway, today the Nationals unveiled the slogan at the center of their 2009 marketing/advertising campaign -- yes, NatsTown. The "NatsTown" idea will attempt to convey the spirit (and here I quote the press release) that "unites all fans in everything Nationals -- at the ballpark, in the community, and in their everyday lives."

The first thing NatsTown made me think of was Joba Chamberlain's nickname for Cleveland. :-)

Victor Conte emails the LA Times on the Bonds evidence:

Conte's major points surrounded the chain of custody questions about urine samples the government says belonged to Bonds, were processed through BALCO and sent to a private lab for testing. Three of those tests were returned positive for steroids, the government's unsealed documents claimed Wednesday.

Conte says, "A laboratory test is only as valid as the history and integrity of the sample analyzed. ... It is important to realize that the quality of control measures taken by [the private lab] are of no value if the specimens they tested were not authenticated and handled properly before they were received. It has been indicated that these urine samples were initially handled by [Bonds' trainer] Greg Anderson and ... [BALCO official] James Valente. Neither of them has a degree or license that would qualify them to process such laboratory samples . ... There was no legal chain of custody."

Conte also said there were "discrepancies" in the dates of BALCO ledgers and the private lab's samples.

In both this case and the Clemens case, it's going to be tough to convince jurors that these were pristine samples.

Update: The judge is leaning toward Bonds in regard to siezed BALCO samples:

U.S. District Judge Susan Illston said during an evidentiary hearing Thursday that she was leaning toward excluding the results seized by investigators during a BALCO raid unless there is direct testimony tying the urine samples to Bonds. She is not expected to issue her ruling Thursday.

Good news for Barry.

Ben Sheets may or may not have a deal with the Texas Rangers, due to a tear in his elbow.

Driveline Mechanics looks at how moving Derek Jeter to centerfield and signing Orlando Cabrera to play shortstop would increase the Yankees wins in the 2009 season. Of course, such a move is extremely unlikely to happen.

Henry Aaron turns 75 today. I'm old enough to remember when Hank was only old in terms of baseball players. :-)

He was very young once, and one of the first black men to play in the Sally League. He had to be as thick skinned as Jackie Robinson. From Brushing Back Jim Crow: The Integration of Minor-League Baseball in the American South:

We were not there to start anything. We were there just to play baseball. I don't think anyone had to remind us of what we were there for. There were a lot of things, when Horace Garner, Felix and myself played in the South Atlantic Leauge, that happened just because we won a ball game. You had people that were hanging around. Crowds that were hanging around. That just meant one thing. They were hanging around to stir up something. People said things to us, calling us names from the stands, but we ignored it, as long as they don't touch you or put their hands on you, then you have no recourse. Just let them say what they want to say.

Happy birthday, Hank, and many happy returns!

ShysterBall posts a link to the Bonds documents released by the government and notes:

the government is in deep doo-doo if it can't somehow compel Anderson to testify, because it needs Anderson to authenticate almost all of the documentary evidence that implicates Bonds. Without it, they are relying on considerable amounts of hearsay.

Does anyone know if the trial will be televised? It should be an education in perjury law.

Cliff Floyd reaches an agreement to play in a limited role for the San Diego Padres:

The deal, pending a physical, will fill the Padres' need for a left-handed pinch-hitter and designated hitter in their nine inter-league games at American League parks.

In those roles, he's less likely to get hurt. His biggest asset, however, is his power, which PETCO is likely to curtail.

Russell Martin likes the Dodgers playoff chances with or without Manny Ramirez:

"Whether we have him or not, I think our team has got a good core and he just complements the rest of the guys," Martin said Wednesday during a team visit to Children's Hospital Los Angeles.

Manny, however, is a much bigger complement than Juan Pierre. I'd say playing Juan is more like adding insult to injury. :-)

Tyler Kepner read The Yankee Years and says Joe Torre is spinning his A-Fraud reference:

Here is the actual passage, as written by Torre and Tom Verducci: "Back in 2004, at first Rodriguez did his best to try to fit into the Yankee culture - his cloying, B-grade actor best. He slathered on the polish. People in the clubhouse, including teammates and support personnel, were calling him 'A-Fraud' behind his back."

Behind his back is the literal opposite of "in front of him." Torre says he read the book numerous times before publication. Surely he is aware of this important difference.

Seems like Joe didn't like the reaction the leaked snippets received.

Nationals Enquirer posts the latest World Series odds. Given the long shots in the list, I'd bet on Seattle at 100/1. The AL West is wide open, and some bounce back years by their pitching staff could make a difference.

Pat Lackey discusses why the Red Sox have not offered Jason Bay a contract extension:

So what gives? There are likely a few factors at play. In the linked article, it's mentioned that Matt Holliday and Vladimir Guerrero will both be free agents next winter as well. As good as Bay was last year, he turned 30 before the end of last season and he's still only a year removed from an injury-induced .247/.327/.418 year. His basic skill set, power and a knack for getting on base, are widely referred to as "old player skills," which could be an indication that his peak may not last long enough for the Red Sox to justify signing him to an extension.

It's also hard to ignore that Bay is making $7.5 million this year while guys with similar skill sets, like Adam Dunn and Bobby Abreu, are having a hard time pulling down a number even with that in free agency. As strange as it sounds, there just may not be many benefits for Boston in locking Bay up to any sort of long-term deal right now.

The Red Sox would be paying for Bay's decline. Unless the player is coming off a very high peak, those deals are usually not worth it.

Here's what was in the unsealed evidence. The worst is probably this:

In the court documents, prosecutors say Bonds tested positive in 2000 and 2001 for the steroids methenelone and nandrolone. Prosecutors want to use those test results to show Bonds lied when he told a grand jury in December 2003 that he never knowingly used steroids.

If true, I don't see how Bonds can spin those as legal at the time. Remember, even those those drugs weren't specifically banned at the time, controlled substances were.

The Yankees manage to trade Chase Wright after he was designated for assignment to make room for Andy Pettitte. Wright was the pitcher who gave up four consecutive home runs to the Red Sox in 2007.

The Yankees get Eric Fryer, who is described as an outfielder-catcher:

The 23-year old Fryer hit .335 with 10 homers and 63 RBIs in 104 games for Class A West Virginia last year. He led the South Atlantic League in batting average and on-base percentage (.407) and was third in slugging percentage (.506).

It's pretty good to get someone who is leading his league in these categories, although his age means he's more mature than a lot of players at that level. If he's a real catcher with those numbers, he might be a real steal. If, however, you're labeled as a an outfielder-catcher, I suspect his defensive abilities behind the plate aren't that good. Needless to say, it's an intriguing trade.

What if you ran a team caravan and no one came?

TangoTiger makes the argument that Selig is overpaid. I disagree in the comments.

Just before the tech bubble burst in 2000, News Corp went on a buying spree, snapping up high-tech companies including the one for which I worked, STATS, Inc. These companies were combined into a new organization, News Digital Media, or something like that. Of all the companies New Corp bought, STATS was the only one which turned a profit. It was the only one that survived. Selig is getting paid for results, not for potential future profits.

Tim Malcolm argues that the Phillies should wait on Chase Utley until his hip is healed. His reasoning is poor, however:

One thing the Phillies have proved is April isn't as important as August in the marathon of baseball.

Tell that to the 1982 Dodgers or the 1984 American League East. Most years, it's okay to go 11-11 in April, but what if another team goes 17-5? That's a big hole for early in the season. Fans should not depend on their team being able to turn on the wins late. Past performance in no indicator of future returns.

The Feds unseal records in Barry Bonds's perjury case today. If any of you are legal experts and take time to sift through the evidence, I'd love to hear your opinion.

In a spoof of the Holy Grail, Derek Jeter and other sports stars go on a quest for Gatorade. The Dance off is great, as well as Jeter battling the toy poodle.

Both Chien-Ming Wang and Jorge Posada are making progress rehabilitating their injuries.

A suggestion for an Inside the Park Home Run Derby. I think it would be more fun with lumbering sluggers.

Jeff Moorad is one step closer to owning the Padres:

Moorad, who resigned last month as chief executive officer of the Arizona Diamondbacks, will acquire 100 percent ownership during a period of up to five years, subject to approval by baseball owners.

The sale, precipitated by Moores' difficult divorce from his wife, Becky, is expected to close by Opening Day, and Moorad would become CEO. That could mean the end of Sandy Alderson's tenure with the club, which lost 99 games last year.

The Tigers sign Justin Verlander to a one-year deal, clearing their arbitration slate. Verlander's new contract supercedes his old deal. He would be in the last year of a five-year contract, but was allowed to opt out of the deal if he became arbitration eligible. That's a nice contract for the Tigers to have given the youngster. Justin would have gotten the upside if he stays healthy, and guaranteed money if he got hurt.

The Brewers and Rickie Weeks agree to a new deal just above the mid-point of their arbitration numbers. That leaves the Brewers just Corey Hart facing an arbitration hearing.

When I started reading Bill James back in the 1980s, Bill would take about batting average as a percentage of a player's offensive value. If batting average represented a high percentage of a player's value, he didn't draw many walks nor hit much for power. Weeks, on the other hand, has a very high percentage of his value in his OBA, due to his high number of walks, and very little power.

While we like to think all OBA is created the same, it's not. I'd much rather sign a player with a .300 BA and a .352 OBA than Weeks who comes in at .245/.352. There's a lot to be said for not making outs, but without power, Weeks does very little to advance runners in front of him.

The White Sox make Bobby Abreu a one-year, $8 million offer. Steve Rosenbloom speculates on how signing Bobby would lead to other moves by the White Sox.

It continues to be a very bad year to be an aging, free-agent outfielder.

Sam Borden is at the Joe Torre book signing.

Joe Christensen reports on a possible Twins deal with the Mariners.

John Hickey, of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, reported yesterday that the Twins and Mariners recently discussed a trade of OF Delmon Young for LHP Jarrod Washburn and C Jeff Clement.

If that's true -- and we haven't confirmed this - perhaps the Twins had plans to spin Clement off as part of another deal. The Twins have this Mauer guy at catcher, and one of their top prospects is catcher Wilson Ramos.

The Yankees have interest in Washburn, and could use a long-term option at catcher. Might the Twins have interest in Cano as well?

It's the 50th anniversary of the day the music died.

This is an interesting twist. Orlando Hudson says the Yankees are one of four teams interested in him:

Hudson also told the MLB Network he has not been told he would need to change positions. Robinson Cano (Yankees) and Luis Castillo (Mets) are established at second base, but both have been the subject of trade rumors. The Nationals' second base situation is unsettled; the Dodgers have said second-year player Blake DeWitt would take over for the retired Jeff Kent.

Cano, despite his poor 2008, has enough potential to bring a decent return. Are they going to package Cano and one of the outfielders for a true centerfielder?

The Baseball Toaster closes it's doors as two of their biggest blogs move on to better paying gigs. I always enjoyed the site. This is my favorite Baseball Toaster post.

It looks like investigators found Roger Clemens's DNA in one of McNamee's syringes. I tend to agree with Rusty Hardin, here, however:

On Monday, Rusty Hardin, Clemens' Houston-based defense attorney, said the DNA tests "won't matter at all."

"It will still be evidence fabricated by McNamee," Hardin said. "I would be dumbfounded if any responsible person ever found this to be reliable or credible evidence in any way."

The chain of custody here is really poor.

Via The Hardball Times, Manny Ramirez rejects the Dodgers offer:

Despite proclamations from Boras last week that he started negotiating with other clubs and that he expected Ramirez to be signed by the start of spring training, the Dodgers seem to believe that the player has nowhere else to go.

The New York Mets, San Francisco Giants and Washington Nationals are among the teams known to be monitoring Ramirez's situation but don't appear inclined to pay him more than $20 million a season. The Angels failed to re-sign All-Star first baseman Mark Teixeira, another Boras client, but have said they won't bid for Ramirez.

By taking the offer, Ramirez would have become the second-highest-paid player in baseball behind Alex Rodriguez and could have reentered the free-agent pool in a year. The Dodgers liked the idea of having Ramirez in a contract year, figuring the temperamental star would play as hard as he did in his two months with them last season, when he hit .396 with 17 home runs and 53 runs batted in.

As Craig Calcaterra notes:

I know Scott Boras is an evil genius and everything, but has someone explained to him that the point of holding out is to make the offers go, you know, higher?

So what does Manny want? If most teams are either not interested nor willing to pay more than $20 million per season, is he simply waiting for a long term contract? Is there a dollar total, where years don't matter, that would land Manny? If a team offered him $75 million over five years, would Manny sign? If the Nationals are indeed interested, I'd try that. Even if they only got three good years from Ramirez, the contract is probably worth it, and Washington seems to be the perfect landing place for baseball jerks. Manny would fit right in.

Dodger Thoughts moved to the LA Times. Congratulations to Jon Weisman and remember to update your links and RSS readers.

The Dodgers made a one-year, $25 million dollar offer to Manny Ramirez. I'm somewhat surprised at that level. With the lack of interest, I would have thought they'd come down at least to $20 million. I would guess that level will take the Giants out of the bidding, unless they decide to go longer term.

The Marlins' president believes a new stadium will bring in the fans:

With final voting on the Florida Marlins' long-sought ballpark less than two weeks away, club president David Samson says he expects near-capacity crowds nightly the first year in the team's new home, with annual attendance above 2 million for at least seven seasons.

Such an increase for the attendance-challenged Marlins would allow them to climb into the middle of the major league pack in player payroll, Samson said Monday.

"As soon as our revenues goes up, our payroll will go up," Samson said at a luncheon to promote the upcoming season. "In the new ballpark, our payroll will always match our revenues, but our revenues will be higher."

I'll believe it when I see it. If the Marlins put out an inferior product their first year in the new stadium, I doubt the crowds will grow much. Florida should invest in their team before going into the new stadium to drive attendance, not wait for the attendance to materialize.

Cots Baseball Contracts has the list of arbitration eligible players.

The Mets reach an agreement with Oliver Perez on a three-year contract. He'll earn $36 million, which is a pretty good contract for this off-season.

Unfortunately, it's the same per season level as Carlos Silva received from the Mariners last year. I would guess most people think Perez is better than Silva, but both have had their ups and downs during their careers. Perez is three years younger, however, meaning the Mets are going to capture his peak seasons. It's a pretty solid deal for the Mets, and Perez is set for life.

FishStripes posts the latest news on Andrew Miller and Anibal Sanchez.

Bud Selig made more money in 2007 than all but four MLB players. Sam Borden delivers the snark, but Selig earned it. MLB generates a huge stream of revenue, and over the last two CBA more of that is staying with the teams and less with the players. Major League Baseball is a very successful enterprise, and the leader of that should be rewarded. He's not the president of a failing bank, after all.

River Ave. Blues looks at looks at what a potential advertising bubble burst could mean for the Yankees.

Redleg Nation has the same idea as Joe Posnanski, just substitute Cincinnati Reds for Kanas City Royals:

You know what would be great? If the Kansas City Royals announced tomorrow that they just signed Manny Ramirez and Ben Sheets. Convinced them each to come for one year, big money, mercenaries, and then they could go back on the market when the economy is a little better. And owner David Glass came out and said, "I expect to win this year. Or else."

I don't know. It would just a be a different story to write in Kansas City.

I could see the same ideas working for the Florida Marlins, Seattle Mariners and the San Francisco Giants. This seasons represents a chance to get really good players cheap. Why not generate some buzz in a second division town?

Yankees Chick is back and blogging, and promises a video Monday.

The Tampa Bay Rays will show no local games on over the air channels. Instead, they'll air exclusively on FSN. While this is bad news for people in Florida whose cable companies don't carry cable, it's great news for everyone else in the country who gets MLB Extra Innings.

This article makes it sound like Bobby Abreu has offers, he's just trying to decide what term fits him best:

These are Abreu's current options: He could accept a one-year deal and plunge back into the market next winter or continue to wait for the situations of teams to change. Greenberg said there were six or seven teams interested, but that number rises and falls.

"It's hard to say we're narrowing it down, because it kind of changes on a daily basis," Greenberg said. "Some teams say they need to make a deal to open up room to sign him. We'll see. We're going to have to decide over the next week or so."

You would think at this point in his career, Bobby does not need the security of a long term contract. In fact, he might be better off playing on one-year deals for the rest of his career, as long as his offense holds up. Would he rather have a $30 million, three-year deal, or possibly sign three $12 million one year contracts?

Derrick Goold pens an excellent article on the Cardinals propensity to promote minor league players quickly. The Cardinals understand a fundamental truth:

"When you look at the age at which the best players in baseball reach the big leagues, it's younger than most people think," Luhnow said. "The Scott Rolens, the Jim Edmondses, the Yadier Molinas -- all of those players -- they make it to the big leagues at 21, 22 or 23. So, that has to factor into it a bit. What it means more importantly is we're drafting younger players, we're developing them ourselves. And, we're pushing them aggressively through the system."

"Young is good," Luhnow continued. "There is no doubt. (Players) who make it in their late 20s are often serviceable guys, a bench guy, a late bloomer, but stars tend to make it young. ... We differentiate ourselves as a system if we're producing stars at the big-league level -- average to above-average performers, and those guys tend to be younger guys when they get here."

My only worry here is that they mistake success in a small sample size for talent. However, I agree that if a player has nothing to prove at his current level, he should move up. Younger players are just as good as older players, and come at a much lower cost.

This team won't make the mistake the Red Sox made with Wade Boggs and the Mariners made with Edgar Martinez.

Correction: Fixed link.