October 07, 2008
Defensive Indifference takes John Lackey to task for whining about the Angels loss.
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:40 AM
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October 06, 2008
The Red Sox take out the Angels three games to one. It came down the Angels not executing with runners in scoring position, not executing on defense, and not executing on a bunt with the go-ahead run 90 feet from home plate. With a little luck, this series could easily be going back to Anaheim.
Congratulations to the Boston Red Sox! They'll be heading to Tampa Bay to take on the Rays on Friday. That should be a great one.
Correction: Changed first base to home plate.
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:32 PM
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With one out in the bottom of the ninth, Reggie Willits dives for a Jason Bay fly ball down the rightfield line and misses. Luckily for Willits, it bounces in the stands for a double, otherwise, it's an inside the park home run.
Kotsay hits a hard liner, and Teixeira makes a great catch at first. Lowrie, however, grounds a ball through the infield and Bay scores. The Red Sox win 3-2!
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:27 PM
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Kendry Morales leads off the ninth against Masterson with a double off the Green Monster. Reggie Willits pinch runs, and Kendrick bunts him to third base with one out. The Red Sox are making a pitching change, bringing in Delcarmen. Erick Aybar is due up.
Update: The Angels try to squeeze, but Aybar misses the pitch. Varitek chases down Willits and tags him out. Scioscia argues the ball came loose, but the replay shows it happened well after the play.
Unbelievable. Almost any kind of ball in play scores the run. Aybar did execute nine sacrifices during the season, however, so I can see why Scioscia called the play. We'll see if it truly ends up being suicide for the Angels.
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:16 PM
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Torii Hunter comes up in the top of the eighth with two on and two out (that seems to be the Angels prefered situation). A passed ball puts both runners in scoring position.
Update: The Torii, Torii chant doesn't work as Hunter singles to right, driving in both runs. Okajima and Masterson combine to blow the save.
Update: Napoli flies out to right to end the inning. The Angels did a good job of working Lester's pitch count high (109) so that he couldn't complete the game. Lackey is still in with 93 pitches thrown.
Update: Sorry, Scot Shields is in to start the eighth. I'm a bit surprised by that.
Update: Shields retires the side in order. The game goes to the ninth tied at two.
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:56 PM
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Singles by Kotsay and Varitek put runners on first and third with one out. All the hits so far in the game are of the one base variety, the main reason all these runners are being left on base.
Update: Ellsbury grounds to Kendrick. There was a chance for a double play, but Kendrick bobbles the ball and just gets Ellsbury at first. Kotsay crosses the plate and the Red Sox lead 1-0. I'm guessing Howie Kendrick is going to get a lot of extra fielding drills next spring.
Pedroia finally gets a hit, a double off the Green Monster that scores Varitek from second. It's 2-0 Red Sox.
Update: Ortiz hits a shot back to Lackey to end the inning. The pressure now shifts to the Angels hitters.
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:08 PM
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One-out singles by Erick Aybar and Chone Figgins puts two more runners on for the Angels. The teams are getting men on, but neither are getting the third hit to drive in a run. Garret Anderson grounds into a force to put runners on the corners.
Why, exactly is Anderson batting second? He just doesn't strike me as a number two hitter. He's not patient at the plate, and he doesn't get on base well.
Update: Lester thought he struck out Teixeira on an outside pitch. It wasn't that close. Jon comes back with the same pitch, this time on the outside corner, and Teixeira takes it for strike three. The Angels leave two more on base.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:55 PM
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David Ortiz singles, then Youkilis grounds to Figgins. Chone throws wide inside to second, and all hands are safe. Two on, one out for the Red Sox as the Angels fielding may hurt them again.
Update: A long fly ball by Drew moves Ortiz to third, two out.
Update: Bay flies out to end the threat. The Angels left four on, the Red Sox three through four innings.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:42 PM
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Figgins singles with one out and Teixeira walks with two out to bring up Vlad Guererro in the top of the third.
Update: After fouling off a ton of balls, Guerrero takes two balls to even the count. He then squibs one that gets by Lester, but Pedroia makes a great play to nip Vlad. Guerrero twisted himself a bit on the swing, so it took him a second to get started running. A left-handed batter beats that out for a base hit.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:17 PM
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Like the Angels, the Red Sox put two on with a single and a walk in the second. Kotsay, however, grounds into a double play to end the inning. Lester is at 28 pitches, Lackey 26. Given the length of Monday night's game, both managers would like their starters to go deep into the game.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:07 PM
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Mike Napoli walks and Juan Rivera singles with two out to give Howie Kendrick a chance to drive in a run.
Update: Kendrick strikes out to end the inning. He's batting .133 with no walks, HBP or extra-base hits. He's struck out in seven of his 15 at bats.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:57 PM
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Chone Figgins grounds out to second to start game 4 of the Red Sox/Angels series.
Update: Garret Anderson strikes out.
Update: Mark Teixeira grounds out to second and Lester retires the side in order. He throws just nine pitches, six for strikes. The Red Sox will take that all night.
Update: With Lowell out, Youkilis moves to third and Kotsay starts at first. That puts six left-handers in the Red Sox lineup against Lackey, but John's been much better against left-handed batters this season.
Update: Jacoby Ellsbury bounced back to the box and Pedroia popped out to second to start the bottom of the first.
Update: Ortiz grounds out to the shortstop, shifted to the right side. Lackey also ends the first with a low pitch count, nine pitches, five for strikes.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:39 PM
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The Tampa Bay Rays finish off the White Sox, taking the series three games to one. Coming into this series, the Rays offense was better at getting on base, but the White Sox held the superior sluggers. Tampa Bay, however, beat the White Sox at their own game. The Rays not only got on base better, but they out slugged Chicago .507 to .362. Danks not starting until game three hurt the Sox as did losing Carlos Quentin to injury.
Congratulations to the Rays on their first playoff series win! Given the way they played against both the Red Sox and Angels, I'm really looking forward to the ALCS.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:21 PM
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The White Sox are down to their final three outs. Trailing 6-2, they need to get runners on in this inning and hope for a big hit at some point. They haven't been able to do the first of those this afternoon as they've collected four hits and two walks.
Update: Thome leads off against Balfour.
Update: Thome grounds out to the shortstop, shifted over to the second base position. Konerko up.
Update: Konerko flies out to the warning track in right. It's up to Griffey.
Update: Balfour strikes out Griffey, and Tampa Bay wins 6-2!
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:12 PM
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The Rays string together a double, IBB and a single to plate a run in the top of the seventh. The lead is back to four runs, and the Rays scored in five of the seven innings. Tampa Bay matched the two solo home runs hit by Chicago, but added seven other hits and four walks. It's 6-2 Tampa Bay with two on and one out.
Update: Longoria pops out and Crawford grounds out, so the Rays only get the one run. The White Sox have three innings to score four runs.
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:23 PM
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Mike Scioscia is still confident:
Question: "You guys won in extra innings last night. A lot of players talked about that being a momentum builder. How do you see that taking you into this game and how confident are you taking it into a game Game 5?''
Scioscia: "As we talked about a short series, any team that wins, I think put it's back on the other team. Even though we were down, 2-0, I think last night's game was indicative of that. We're going to play a good game. I know that. We're going to go on the field and play well. We didn't play a perfect game last night, but we played well enough and did the things we need to do to win, and that's what we intend to do tonight.''
When he was informed it didn't exactly sound like he was guaranteeing a victory, Scioscia shot back, defiantly, "Well, ask me to do a forensic analysis, and I'll guarantee it. I'll guarantee a victory. I'm not going to sit here and compare.
I think it will be a very close game.
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:15 PM
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Jermaine Dye homers to right with two out in the bottom of the sixth. The solo shot cuts the Rays lead to 5-2. Since Sonnanstine held the White Sox to three hits and one walk, both shots against him were solos. Until the White Sox are able to string together a few hits, they're not going to do much damage with the home runs.
J.P. Howell relieves Andy after the home run.
Update: Thome grounds out to end the inning.
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:01 PM
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Carlos Pena drives in Iwamura and the Rays lead 5-1 in the top of the fifth. They're out-hitting Chicago 7-2, and are 7 for 15 putting the ball in play, including two home runs. The Rays are finding the holes in the Chicago defense.
Update: Pena gets picked off first to end the inning.
Posted by StatsGuru at 06:36 PM
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The Rays score two more runs in the fourth and Konerko homers in the bottom of the inning and Tampa Bay leads 4-1 in the top of the fifth. Gavin Floyd faced three batters in the fourth before Clayton Richard came in to relieve.
Posted by StatsGuru at 06:31 PM
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B.J. Upton hits another home run in his second at bat of the game. He matches Longoria's two home runs in two at bats in game 1. Those are the only runs of the game as the Rays move out to a 2-0 lead.
Posted by StatsGuru at 05:53 PM
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Gabe Gross just appeared to rob a home run from A.J. Pierzynski. I'm never quite sure on these TV replays if the ball would have left the park unless the glove goes over the wall. It sure looked like the ball was going to hit the top of the fence and bounce out, but Gabe's hand stayed in the park. Nice catch.
Update: Jermaine Dye draws a walk, but that's all the White Sox get in the bottom of the first.
Posted by StatsGuru at 05:22 PM
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B.J. Upton gets the Rays off to a good start with a solo home run in the first inning. I guess my idea of trying to put the ball in play wasn't such a good idea. :-) However, the first three batters did get the bat on the ball, two of them picked up hits, and Iwamura hit a hard line drive right at the third baseman.
Longoria, however, strikes out for the second out of the inning.
Update: It seems to me waving white towels defeats the whole purpose of the black out.
Update: Crawford grounds out to end the inning. The White Sox come up in the bottom of the first trailing 1-0.
Posted by StatsGuru at 05:08 PM
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The story is the same as Sunday in the ALDS, the White Sox and Angels need to win to stay alive. Gavin Floyd hosts Andy Sonnanstine at 5 PM EDT. Andy improved his ERA about 1.5 runs versus 2007. His low walks and home run rates combined with a better defense did the trick. Unlike many pitchers on the Rays, Sonnanstine is very even home and road. He's also coming off a very strong September in which he posted a 3.16 ERA as his strikeouts picked up a bit. The Rays didn't help him much, however, as he end September 0-3.
Floyd owns an interesting home/road split. His ERA is lower at the Cell, but he allows more home runs there. His strikeouts go way up in his home park, leading me to wonder if he takes advantage of batters swinging for the fences there? With the higher K rate, his hits allowed are down. Maybe the right way to approach Floyd in Chicago is not to swing for the fences, but concentrate on putting the ball in play. The White Sox defense isn't that good, so ball will find their way to holes.
The second battle of the Jo(h)ns takes place in Boston tonight as Game 1 starters John Lackey and Jon Lester face off. Lester won that battle, but didn't pitch that much better than Lackey. The difference was one home run ball. Unfortunately, the Angels lost the battle in which they held the upper hand. Lester is 11-1 at Fenway this season with a 2.49 ERA. That's impressive for any pitchers, but more so for a lefty. His success comes from closing the gap between left and right-handed batters at home, pitching much better against right-handed batters at Fenway.
The Red Sox can send six lefties/switch hitters against Lackey tonight, which would play into his strength. He's shown a reverse platoon split this season, where lefties struggle against him much more than righties. That's exactly the kind of pitcher needed to neutralize switch hitters.
On top of that, it's going to be cold tonight. (I'm very aware of this since our furnace blew and I'm waiting for a new one.) I suspect we'll see a very low scoring game, which means fans of both teams will be on the edge of their seats the entire game.
Enjoy!
Posted by StatsGuru at 12:35 PM
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Halos Heaven points out the Red Sox bullpen is in better shape than the Angels' for tonight game. Of course, given their due or die situation, I believe all hands are on deck. If the Angels need a long reliever, Ervin Santana should be able to give them an inning or two.
Update: I'm an idiot some days. Santana is starting Wedensday if there is a game. However, today would normally be a side session, so he could pitch an inning if needed.
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:56 AM
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This is why I love Red Sox fans so much. They always manage to find the cloud in the silver lining. After two World Series wins in four years, you'd think the "can't do" attitude would be gone.
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:39 AM
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A Washington Nationals fan claims responsibility for the Cubs failure:
I explained my reason for seeking him out. I needed a good strong curse on Number 12, as a lesson to these big-market teams not to mess with us small-market teams. And if you could take one of the small-market perennial last-place teams--somebody ridiculous like the Tampa Bay Devil Rays--and have them take first place, that would be great, too, I told him.
His eyes gleamed. We shook hands. I still haven't quite scrubbed my fingers clean.
I recited my curse: Let Alfonso Soriano succeed during the season so that he has his manager's full confidence and stays as leadoff man. Then let him fail dismally and miserably in the post-season.
Just then we heard a screech of brakes as a semi locked up, but not fast enough to keep from thumping a wolf trotting across the road. "Good timing," said The Wemm, and he stole out, grabbed the road kill by its hind legs, and dragged it back behind the building.
Humming under his breath, he slit open the belly and pulled out the still-warm organs, and, I must confess, despite my vow to witness and document the whole ceremony, I must have gotten a little too close to him,or must have gotten into a little pocket of stagnant air there, for I keeled over.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:51 AM
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Mike Napoli singles against Javier Lopez. Kendrick bunts him over and the Angels have a runner in scoring position in the top of the 12th inning.
Update: Erick Aybar pops one into short centerfield for a hit and an RBI. The Angels lead 5-4 and Figgins is up to try to add to that total.
Update: Figgins strikes out.
Update: Anderson pulls a single by the first baseman and the Angels have first and third with two out for the red hot Mark Teixeira.
Update: Teixeira grounds to the shortstop to end the inning. Will Weaver get to preserve the lead or will Scioscia call the bullpen for a save?
Update: It's Weaver against Ortiz, Youkilis and Bay.
Update: Ortiz walks.
Update: Youkilis flies out to center with Ortiz running. David does get back to first. Bay up.
Update: Bay strikes out again. It's up to Alex Cora.
Update: Cora hits a fast grounder down the third base line, but Figgins makes a nice backhand play and throws out Cora. The Angels win 5-4 in 12 innings, preventing a 12 straight playoff loss to the Red Sox.
Scioscia said they would not be eliminated tonight and he was right. We'll see two games tomorrow, the Rays and White Sox in the late afternoon and the Angels and Red Sox at night.
Posted by StatsGuru at 12:30 AM
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With one out in the 11th, Mark Teixeira draws a walk from Papelbon. Vlad follows with a single up the middle. Men on first and second, one out.
Update: Hunter flies out to right, bringing up Gary Matthews.
Update: Matthews strikes out to end the top of the 11th.
Update: Jered Weaver comes in to pitch for the duration, I'm guessing.
Update: Weaver strikes out Kotsay as the Red Sox burn their second catcher. Crisp singles to center, however, and represents the winning run.
Update: Ellsbury strikes out. Two down for the hitless Pedroia.
Update: Crisp steals second. A single may win the game.
Update: Dustin hits a rocket right at Figgins. He throws Pedroia out at first, and the game goes to the twelfth inning.
Posted by StatsGuru at 12:05 AM
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October 05, 2008
Jonathan Papelbon comes in to start the tenth against the bottom of the order, 8-9-1.
Update: The Angels go down 1-2-3, Figgins striking out looking on a perfect pitch on the low, outside corner. The 2-3-4 hitters are due for the Red Sox in the bottom of the inning.
Update: Pedroia strikes out but K-Rod walks Ortiz. Dustin is 0 for 4 tonight and hitless for the series.
Update: Youkilis singles to center to put Ortiz in scoring position. I'd pinch run for David at this point.
Update: Bay Ks.
Update: Lowell thought he checked his swing on a 3-1 count, but the first base umpire says Mike swung. Full count for the runners to get a jump.
Update: K-Rod fools Lowell, but the pitch is called just off the plate for ball four. Bases loaded, two out.
Update: Lowrie flies out to Matthews in right, and the Red Sox leave the bases loaded. This one goes to eleven with the score tied at four.
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:26 PM
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J.D. Drew pinch hits against Shields to start the inning. Shields already retired four batters and strikes out Drew. That's three K in five batters for Shields.
Update: Crisp flies out to center, two down.
Update: Matthews shows them how to catch an Ellsbury fly ball. Gary came in as a defensive replacement and his grab sends the game into extra innings.
A lot of people in Boston are going to be late for work tomorrow.
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:19 PM
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Torii Hunter hits a ball past Lowell leading off the ninth, but Jason Bay makes a perfect throw to second to nail Hunter going for a double. Another mistake by the Angels tonight.
Update: Napoli's bat shatters and nearly takes out Masterson. Pedroia follows the ball and throws out Mike to end the inning. The Red Sox need a run in the ninth to end the series in three games.
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:11 PM
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After Teixeira singles with two out, Justin Masterson comes in to face Vlad in the top of the eighth. Vlad works the count to 3-2, fouls off ball four, then swings and misses to end the inning. The Red Sox come up to try to break the tie in the bottom of the eighth.
Update: The Red Sox go down in order in the eighth. One inning left in regulation.
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:01 PM
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Jacoby Ellsbury saves the Angels fielders any more embarrassment by drawing a walk leading off the bottom of the seventh.
Update: With one out and Ortiz up, Ellsbury can't hold second on the steal and gets tagged out to clear the bases.
Update: Ortiz walks but Shields comes in to strike out Youkilis. Still 4-4 after seven innings.
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:32 PM
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Manny Delcarmen retires the first four Angels he faces, then hits Napoli. Despite home runs in his previous two at bats, it looked like the hit was an accident. Kendrick singles to right to put runners at 1st and 2nd with two outs. That's it for Delcarmen. Okajima enters the game to try to strand even more Angels runners.
Update: Hideki gets a groudner to third to end the inning. The Angels have now left 11 on base. Boston has left five.
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:21 PM
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Jacoby Ellsbury's three-run single was the first three-run single in postseason history.
Update: As I wrote that, Ellsbury hits one deep to left that ticks of Garret Anderson's glove for a double. Anderson looked a bit tentative going for the ball as he was approaching the wall. Ellsbury has two hits on balls that were very catchable.
Update: Once again, the Red Sox take advantage of the error as Youkilis knocks one off the wall in centerfield for a double and the Red Sox tie the game at four. All four are the result of dropped balls off Jacoby Ellsbury's bat.
Update: Saunders walks Bay, and then comes out of the game. Jose Arredondo takes over with two out and two on.
Update: Arrendondo strikes out Lowell looking to end the fifth. Saunders defense lets him down, otherwise he'd likely still be in the game with a lead and a chance for a win.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:35 PM
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Mike Napoli takes Josh Beckett deep again, this time into the Monster Seats for eight total bases on the game. The solo shot gives the Angels a 4-3 lead in the top of the fifth. Mike increased his power this season, doubling his 2007 homer total in about the same number of at bats. His home run rate would give him 53 over 600 at bats.
Update: Howie Kendrick has no idea how to judge a fly ball at Fenway. He's off on the pitch when Aybar hits one to shallow center. Kendrick sees the ball is in the air, but keeps moving toward second! Crisp catches the ball, and with his momentum carrying him toward first, makes a quick throw to try to double up Kendrick. It almost worked, but the ball hit Howie on the arm.
The Angels lead 4-3 in the middle of the fifth.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:26 PM
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Josh Beckett is a bit late covering first on a grounder with two out. That puts Angels at first and second for Vlad in the top of the fourth. We'll see if Beckett's mistake is as serious as the dropped ball by the Angels in centerfield.
Update: Guerrero walks on four pitches. I'm guessing Josh didn't want to give Vlad anything to hit. The bases are loaded for Torii Hunter.
Update: Hunter leads the bases loaded as he grounds into a force at second. The Angels have left eight on base so far, an average of two per inning.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:08 PM
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Mike Napoli gets two of the runs back as he homers over the AAA sign above the Green Monster with Vlad Guerrero on base. In the middle of the third, the Angels and Red Sox are tied at three. That was Napoli's second hit in two seasons of playoff baseball. He's now 2 for 12.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:48 PM
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With two out in the second, the Red Sox load the bases on a walk, single and walk. That brings up Ellsbury, who works deep into the count, then pops the ball into shallow center field. The shortstop Aybar, the second baseman Kendrick and Hunter in center all converge on the ball. Hunter has the longest run but the best angle. Aybar gives up on it as it looks like Kendrick was going to catch it. Hunter then does the same thing, but Kendrick pulls back at the last second. The ball drops, and all three runners score as the Red Sox take a 3-1 lead.
I'm not sure whose was at fault. I tend to blame Hunter because the CF should catch anything he can. However, Kendrick faked me out, too. I thought he was going to catch it, and the other two peeled off to avoid a collision.
All those men left on base by the Angels really hurt now.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:33 PM
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Through two innings, the Angels forced Josh Beckett to throw 52 pitches. And despite the fact that Beckett has thrown more balls than strikes, walked three and allowed three hits, the Angels only scored one run. They've left five runners on base. That's letting a struggling pitcher off the hook.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:15 PM
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B.J. Upton singles with two out in the ninth, but Carlos Pena gets caught looking at a big Bobby Jenks curve ball as Carlos strikes out to end the game. The Chicago bullpen pitched well, going 2 1/3 innings, giving up just one hit and one walk while striking out three.
The White Sox hitters were a bit more selective in this game, walking five times after just three walks in the first two games. Couple that with three extra base hits (they had three in the first two games), and Chicago generated enough offense to win the game. They're scheduled for a 5 PM EDT start tomorrow, but if the Red Sox win I'm sure the game will move to prime time.
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:52 PM
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The Angels and Red Sox are on TNT while the game in Chicago finishes. Chone Figgins leads off with a double, doubling the Angels extra base hits in the series.
Update: Beckett strikes out Anderson and Teixeira. Now he'll face Vlad.
Update: Vlad walks.
Update: Hunter loads the bases on an infield single.
Update: Juan Rivera walks with the bases loaded, and the Angels lead 1-0.
Update: Napoli grounds to the shortstop, forcing the runner at second. The Angels had the potential for a big inning but at least take a 1-0 lead.
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:31 PM
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John Danks walks the leadoff batter in the sixth, but comes back to strike out the next two, then retires the side on a fly ball. He's walked two and struck out six through six innings and his 86 pitches means he should get through the seventh. We're seeing here why the playoff game with the Twins was so costly to the White Sox. They could have used Danks starting two games in this series.
Update: Danks gives up a two-run homer to Upton in the seventh. He lasts 6 2/3 innings, allowing three runs, a quality start. The Rays are now batting in the top of the eighth.
Update: The Rays get a man on but don't score in the eighth. The White Sox lead 5-3 and are three outs away from playing Monday.
Posted by StatsGuru at 06:38 PM
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Garza keeps slipping as he lands after pitches during warmups for the bottom of the fifth. The grounds crew is making their second attempt at fixing the problem.
Update: Pierzynski doubles over Upton's head into left-centerfield. Upton plays shallow, and that's twice this game the White Sox sent balls over his head. I don't think it's wrong to play shallow, he probably prevents a good number of singles from falling. It does look bad, however, when you let a double land that most other centerfielders would catch.
Update: Thome walks with one out. Again the White Sox are an extra-base hit away from a big inning.
Update: Konerko hits into a double play instead and the score is still 4-1 White Sox after five.
Posted by StatsGuru at 06:13 PM
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JIm Thome leads off the bottom of the fourth, 1 for 10 in the series with a single. Matt Garza stays with the heat, and Jim smacks one to the wall in centerfield for a double. The White Sox have a chance to take the lead here.
Update: Konerko walks and the White Sox are setting themselves up for a big inning.
Update: Ken Griffey, Jr. singles hard to right, loading the bases. Not much speed on the bases right now, however.
Update: Grand slam king Alexei Ramirez hits the ball deep to center, but it's caught for a sacrifice fly. All three runners move up, however as the throw goes in to shortstop.
That works, too as Dewayne Wise goes the other way down the leftfield line for a two-run double. The White do indeed get the big inning as they take a 4-1 lead.
Update: A strikeout and a ground out end the inning. The Rays bounced back when Chicago scored in the first two games. We'll see if they can do that against Danks.
Posted by StatsGuru at 05:52 PM
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Dewayne Wise walks to lead off the third, but after two outs he finds himself still standing at first. He steals second, then comes around to score on a Pierzynski single, tying the game at one.
Posted by StatsGuru at 05:37 PM
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The Angels are not going to be eliminated tonight.
Posted by StatsGuru at 05:09 PM
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Iwamura hits a slow roller with men on first and third and two out in the second. Danks was falling away from first base so he couldn't field it, and by the time the White Sox got control of the ball, Akinori was safe at first and a run scored. The White Sox come up in the bottom of the second trailing 1-0.
Posted by StatsGuru at 05:04 PM
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Neither the Phillies nor the Brewers hit for a high average in their NLDS. The Phillies hit .250, the Brewers .206. Where the Phillies made a difference was with their power. Of their 32 hits, 17 went for extra bases. Only four of the Brewers 26 hits managed to be long hits. They'll be facing a Dodgers team with a similar LDS offense. Los Angeles hit .250 against the Cubs, but 12 of their 26 hits resulted in extra bases.
Posted by StatsGuru at 04:52 PM
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Rain delayed the start of the Rays/White Sox. They're underway now, and Akinori Iwamura singles to start the first for Tampa Bay.
Update: Upton strikes out, but Carlos Pena, back in the lineup, lines a single to right to but runners on first and third with one out.
Update: Longoria flies out to shallow left, and Crawford bounces one back to the box, and Danks keeps the Rays from scoring.
Posted by StatsGuru at 04:42 PM
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The Phillies give Brad Lidge a 6-2 lead to defend. He gets the first out then Hart singles and advances to second on defensive indifference.
Update: Nelson strikes out and Kendall grounds out to shortstop, and the Phillies win 6-2. The Phillies will get home field advantage in the NLCS as they host the Dodgers starting on Thursday. That's a good amount of rest for both teams.
Pat Burrell hits two home runs in the game. He slugged .750 for the series.
Posted by StatsGuru at 03:58 PM
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Yovani Gallardo just finished his third inning, allowing just one hit and no runs. Again, I ask, if you can pitch Gallardo today, why not start him? I can understand not pitching someone who recently came off a major injury on three days rest. I can't, however, see not starting him if your other option is a bad pitcher. This was a huge mistake by Sveum. The score remains Phillies 5, Bewers 0 in the bottom of the sixth.
Update: Fielder homers in the bottom of the seventh to cut the lead to 5-1. It's the first home run by a Brewers batter in the series.
Posted by StatsGuru at 02:55 PM
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CC Sabathia pinch hits for Jeff Suppan in the bottom of the third. He goes down swinging.
Update: The Brewers go down 1-2-3 in the third. Gallardo comes on in relief. If Gallardo is available to to pitch, why don't you start him? Even if the Brewers only get 60 pitches out of him, he's more likely to hold the Phillies at bay than Suppan.
Update: Gallardo retires the side on 12 pitches, eight for strikes.
Posted by StatsGuru at 02:10 PM
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Pat Burrell leads off the second with a ground ball down the rightfield line. I'm thinking double, but Burrell is barely at first when Hart picks up the ball. He didn't look like he was running hard, but he also might of thought it was foul and didn't start running hard.
Update: Burrell makes up for it, going first to third on a Dobbs single to right-center. I guessing his back is slowing him down a bit. The Phillies have runners at first and third with one out in the second.
Update: Suppan strikes out Ruiz and Blanton to end the inning, leaving two on base. He struck out three in the inning and for the game.
Update: Burrell doesn't need to run in the top of the third. He comes up with two on and two outs. Kendall goes out to talk to Suppan after the count goes to 2-2. They decide what to throw and Pat knocks it out of the park. Jayson Werth then connects for a home run to centerfield, and the Phillies lead 5-0.
Suppan gave up a home run every three innings in September. He's tripled that rate today.
Posted by StatsGuru at 01:33 PM
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Ryan Braun singles in the bottom of the first, but that's all the Brewers get. They do force Blanton to throw 29 pitches, however, which may shorten his time in the game.
Posted by StatsGuru at 01:31 PM
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Credit the bench coach with saving a run Saturday in the game against the Phillies:
Yount knew the rule from his own experience playing in a game against the Minnesota Twins.
"(Kent) Hrbek took out Gumby (Jim Gantner) and started a fight," Sveum said. "Robin then got in the next inning and didn't slide and took their shortstop out. They called obstruction, and they made the guy (the Brewers runner at third) go back."
When you play as long as Yount did, you get to see all the rules come into play. :-)
Posted by StatsGuru at 01:27 PM
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Jimmy Rollins leads off against Jeff Suppan. Suppan falls behind 3-1. Rollins takes an inside pitch for strike two, then blasts the 3-2 down the rightfield line for a home run. The Phillies take an early 1-0 lead. Suppan's September home run problems continue in October.
Update: There's no more damage as Suppan walks Utley but gets Howard to hit into a double play. The Phillies lead 1-0 with the Brewers coming to bat.
Posted by StatsGuru at 01:08 PM
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Kudos to TBS for spreading today's games out so we can see all of them. I understand the strart time of the LAnaheim-Boston game changed to 7:27 from 7:05.
The Phillies play their second match point in Milwaukee at 1:00 PM EDT, send Joe Blanton against Jeff Suppan. Blanton is a good example of how a high scoring team makes a decent pitcher like Joe look really good. The Phillies scored 73 runs in Joe's 13 starts, 5.6 runs per game. With that support, I'm not surprised that Blanton went undefeated, I'm surprised his record was just 4-0. What's more unusual, he pitched well in August, posting a 3.03 ERA in six starts, but wound up just 1-0. The Phillies went 9-4 in his starts, however, making that trade a rather successful one.
Blanton's main strength is his reverse platoon differential. For his career, he's slightly better against left-hand batters, and this season the difference was very pronounced. The Brewers are fairly right-handed, however, so that may help Milwaukee today.
Jeff Suppan, however, does not inspire confidence. This is the game where losing Ben Sheets really hurts. The Brewers won't jeopardize Gallardo's health with a start on short rest. Suppan is coming off a September in which he posted an 8.44 ERA in five starts and allowed a home run every three innings. He's seen his ERA go up in each of the last three seasons, with the number approaching five this year. Unless he has one more great game left in his arm, he's going to need a lot of support from the Milwaukee offense to get a win today.
John Danks last start was against a product of the Minnesota farm system, and today he faces another as Matt Garza tries to send the Rays to the ALCS. Garza nearly matched his 2007 ERA, but added 100 more innings. His rate of allowing hits came down from 10.4 per 9 innings in 2007 to 8.3 this year. He was especially tough with runners in scoring position, allowing a .218 batting average.
Danks is Chicago's best bet at keeping this series alive. He pulled his ERA down two runs compared to 2007 by cutting his home run rate by more than half. He pitched particularly well against Tampa Bay this season. In three starts, he struck out 20 in 19 1/3 innings, good for a 1.86 ERA. Interestingly, he beat the Rays at Tropicana Field twice, but lost to them at the Cell despite a quality start.
The Red Sox try to make the Angels visit to Boston short as Josh Beckett hosts Joe Saunders. Beckett was pushed back to game 3 due to an oblique strain. Francona says Josh is okay:
After a 65-pitch bullpen session Thursday, Beckett was deemed healthy enough to make the start.
"I doubt he's 100 percent. I don't know that anybody is," manager Terry Francona said. "He threw the ball real, real well. We wouldn't pitch him if there was a big worry."
Beckett is 6-2 in the post season with a 1.73 in ten appearances. He's allowed just 14 walks and four home runs in 72 2/3 innings while striking out 82.
The Angels did pound Josh this year, however. The great walk and strikeout numbers were there for Beckett, but he allowed 20 hits in 13 1/3 innings, 12 runs, 11 earned.
Joe Saunders saved the Angels early in the season when both John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar went down with injuries. His 5-0 April helped LAnaheim weather the storm, and his 2.55 road ERA was one of the reason the Angels were the best road team in the majors this season.
Enjoy!
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:30 AM
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The last chance for the Cubs rest in the hands of Theriot, Fukudome and Soriano. Two of the goats of this series have chances to be heroes.
Update: Theriot strikes out on three pitches against Broxton.
Update: Fukudome battles but grounds out to shortstop.
Update: Soriano strikes out on three pitches, appropriately swinging at a pitch in the dirt. The Dodgers win the game 3-1 and the series 3-0.
The Dodgers starters dominated, allowing three earned runs in 19 innings. They walked for and struck out 17. Against the best offense in the NL, the Dodgers staff completely shut down the Cubs.
Meanwhile, the Cubs aces didn't get the job done. They gave up 11 earned runs in 15 1/3 innings. The Dodgers, playing their youngsters with Manny Ramirez, could not be stopped. The Cubs will have to wait for the 101st anniversary of their last World Series win to try again.
Congratulations to the Los Angeles Dodgers on their first post season series win in twenty years. We're a little closer to an LA-Boston final.
Posted by StatsGuru at 01:04 AM
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It looked like a leadoff double by Derrek Lee in the top of the eighth would go for naught, but Daryle Ward singles him home with two out. Cedeno pinch runs for Ward.
Update: Broxton comes in to get the strikeout to end the inning. Cubs have one more inning to keep their post season alive.
Posted by StatsGuru at 12:48 AM
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Lou Piniella doesn't keep Fukudome on the bench long as he puts him in as part of a double shift. He follows a Theriot single with a solid base hit to center, Fukudome's first of the series. That chases Kuroda and brings in Wade to face Soriano. This would be a perfect time for Soriano to break out of his post-season slump.
Update: Soriano swings at the first pitch and flies out. He's hitting .077 in the series.
Update: Mike Fontenot hits it hard to center and it almost carries over Kemp's glove, but he reels it in for the third out. The Cubs leave two more on base and it's still 3-0 Dodgers.
Posted by StatsGuru at 12:23 AM
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October 04, 2008
Russell Martin drives in a run with a double. The ball rolled to the wall in left, and was deadened when it bounced under a sign on the panel. Soriano had to go after it rather than play a carom, so Furcal had plenty of time to score from first. It's Martin's second double of the game, and all four of his hits this series went for extra bases. The Dodgers lead 3-0 in the bottom of the fifth, and Rich Harden leaves the game. He gave up five hits and three walks in 4 1/3 innings. The three aces of the Cubs really disappointed so far in this series.
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:48 PM
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History repeats as the Cubs put two on with two out in the third, and fail to score. Just like the first inning, Chicago could not get the third hit to drive in a run. The Dodgers still lead 2-0.
Update: Soto leads off the fourth with the double. He advances to third after an IBB sets up Rich Harden for the strikeout. The Cubs have left six on base so far.
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:57 PM
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The Dodgers get two hits to put runners on first and third with one out. Ethier strikes out, but James Loney doubles in Martin and Ramirez to put the Cubs down 2-0. Harden's been extremely tough to hit and harder to score on since he joined the Cubs, but not tonight. That's the Dodgers's 10th extra base hit of the series. The Cubs have six, five of them doubles.
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:27 PM
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The Cubs put two batters on base with two out, but Soto grounds out to end the inning. Harden's coming out for the bottom of the first.
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:17 PM
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The story of the game three in the Brewers/Phillies series was the control of the Brewers pitchers. They did not issue a walk nor hit a batter. After issuing 13 walks in the first two games, nine by Gallardo and Sabathia in 7 2/3 innings, this was a welcome change. The four extra base hits by the Philies couldn't do much damage, due to no extra runners on base.
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:11 PM
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Salomon Torres comes in for the save, but gives up consecutive singles to Howard and Dobbs. The Phillies bring the tying run to the plate. Victorino get the first shot at trying to drive in these runners.
Update: Victorino dumps a single into left, and the bases are loaded. Feliz hits the first pitch to third and the Brewers turn a double play, but the Phillies score and it's 4-2. The tying run comes to the plate again, Carlos Ruiz due up.
Update: Victorino didn't slide at second base and interfered with Counsell trying to make the double play. It's a double play, and the runners don't advance! It's back to 4-1, and there are runners on 2nd and 3rd. Ruiz taps back to the box, and we'll have at least one game four.
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:03 PM
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Jayson Werth doubles in the eighth, but that's all Gagne allows as the Brewers still lead 4-1. They're three outs away from forcing a game four.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:50 PM
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With runners on first and third, Jason Kendall delivers his second hit of the evening, driving in the Brewers fourth run. Milwaukee is out-hitting Philadelphia 11-5. All the Brewers' hits are singles, while the Phillies knocked out three extra-base hits. The Brewers collected just seven hits in the first two games.
Update: That's all the Brewers get. They lead 4-1 at the end of seven.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:29 PM
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Chad Durbin retired the leadoff batter, but three straight singles load the bases, including one by relief pitcher Carlos Villanueva. Ryan Braun has a chance to bust the game wide open in the bottom of the sixth.
Update: Durbin strikes out Braun on a pitch that dove at the end. Durbin won't face Fielder as Charlie Manuel makes the double switch.
Update: Scott Eyre comes in to face Fielder.
Update: Fielder pops out to left on a 3-1 pitch. He was just not selective enough.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:56 PM
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Jayson Werth hits a ball deep to right. Corey Hart goes back to the fence, makes the catch, then crashes into a post. Hart falls, and the ball comes lose. Werth, running all the way, makes it to third for a triple. It's not an error, but it's a play Hart could have made.
Update: Utley pops out to the shortstop in short leftfield. Werth holds. That's it for Bush. He throws 70 pitches, 51 for strikes, but Sveum wants a lefty to face Fielder. Given that Bush wasn't that good this season, getting this much quality out of him was a great gift. It's probably a good idea for Sveum not to push his luck.
Update: Howard hits a slow grounder to third. He's thrown out, but the run scores. That completes Bush's line and Stetter's relief appearance.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:34 PM
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Jamie Moyer throws 90 pitches over four innings, and Matt Stairs pinch hits for him in the top of the fifth. The Brewers still lead 2-0.
Update: Clay Condrey relieves and Mike Cameron reaches for the third time without a hit, as he's hit by the pitch. He goes to third on a Hall single, and Ryan Braun hits the second Fly Ball A, advancing both runners. (In Strat-o-Matic Baseball, a Fly Ball A advanced all runners. They were rare, but we've seen two tonight.)
Update: Craig Counsell is up with the bases loaded. Over 1/4 of Counsell's career RBI have come with the bases loaded.
Update: Not this time. Counsell strikes out to end the inning.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:11 PM
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Corey Hart singles with two out in the bottom of the third to move Hardy to third base. Unfortunately, Hart takes too big a turn at first, and Werth throws behind him to end the inning. The Brewers are making some unforced errors in this series. In game one, it was by the fielders. Today, Hart's base running.
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:45 PM
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Jamie Moyer walks Mike Cameron for the second time in two innings, Moyer's third walk of the game. In 16 of his 33 starts this year, Moyer walked one or less sixteen times.
Update: Moyer strikes out Hall on a 3-2 pitch. Hall took the pitch on the outside corner, and I thought Hall was right to take it. Moyer's pitch count is up to 62 after two innings, 28 of those called balls.
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:26 PM
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Jamie Moyer's start is less than perfect and quite a bit wild. He walks the first two batters, then throws a wild pitch to put two runners in scoring position for Ryan Braun.
Update: Braun pops up a 3-2 pitch, leaving the runners on 2nd and 3rd. I like the Brewers approach against Moyer, however. So far, they are doing a good job of recognizing pitches that are out of the strike zone and not swinging at them.
Update: Fly Ball A. Fielder drives one deep to right, advancing both runners and putting Milwaukee up 1-0.
Update: The Tragic Poet of MTV strikes out to end the first. The Brewers are off to a very good start, however.
Update: J.J. Hardy is dyn-o-mite as he lines a ball past Rollins for a single and an RBI. The Brewers take a 2-0 lead. Moyer threw over 30 pitches. Of course, with the Phillies good bullpen, chasing Moyer early may not be a positive.
Posted by StatsGuru at 06:53 PM
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David Bush gets off to a good start, striking out Jimmy Rollins.
Update: Werth is totally fooled striking out on a pitch outside and in the dirt. Bush isn't much of a strikeout pitcher, but he's two for two so far.
Update: Utley hits a come-backer to the mound, and Bush starts off flawlessly. He threw just 10 pitches, eight for strikes.
Posted by StatsGuru at 06:39 PM
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The Milwaukee Brewers and the Chicago Cubs face elimination today as their series shift venues. The early game pits Jamie Moyer against David Bush in Milwaukee. From July first on, Moyer took control of his home runs allowed. He gave up 14 long balls in 100 1/3 innings through the end of June, helping him to a 4.13 ERA. Since, only six left the park in 96 innings, and Moyer's ERA dropped to 3.28. Two of those, however, came in a start against Milwaukee.
Bush posted an interesting year. He strikeout rate fell, his walk and home run rates rose, but his ERA came in a run lower than in 2007. Maybe it was just luck evening out. In 2007, his FIP was 0.54 below his ERA. This season, it was 0.77 higher.
Out in Mannywood, Rich Harden tries to stop the Cubs slide as he faces Hiroki Kuroda. Harden came over to the Cubs and pitched about the same as he had with the Athletics in terms of strikeouts, walks and home runs. However, NL hitters could not connect off him. The A's opposition hit .206 off Rich with a .300 slugging percentage. When he joined the Cubs that dropped to .157 and .273.
Kuroda's stats are similar to David Bush, but without the high home run rate. With decent run support, Hiroki would likely have a winning record. His home road stats were nearly identical, but they translated to a 6-2 record at Dodger Stadium, 3-8 on the road. He pitched very well against the Cubs this season, allowing two runs, one earned, in 15 1/3 innings. Yet his record was just 1-1. Most importantly, he walked just three Chicago batters in those innings, nullifying a Cubs strength. He also finished the season strong, walking 11 batters in his last 66 2/3 innings over August and September.
The walks matter. The Dodgers are holding the Cubs to a .288 OBA so far. That's 66 points below their season average. It's a great example of a low walk staff taking the starch out of a high walk offense.
Enjoy!
Correction: Kuroda was 3-8 on the road, not 3-18.
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:08 AM
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Torii Hunter bunts down the third base line. Youkilis makes the running bare-handed pickup to get him at first. That used to be an unusual play, but now a regular first baseman can make at the hot corner. It shows how much defense has improved over the years.
Update: Matthews pops it up in foul territory. Youkilis leans into the camera pit to make the catch. Two down for Kendrick.
Update: Kendrick falls behind 0-2. He fouls off a couple of pitches and takes a ball, but swings and misses at a high pitch for the K. Papelbon blows the save but gets a win.
The Red Sox set a record for most consecutive post season wins over another team. It's a good thing the Angels play well on the road, since now they need to take two at Fenway. The Angels need to find some power if they are going to beat the Red Sox.
I was hoping for more competitive series this year, but so far, all four are 2-0.
Posted by StatsGuru at 01:19 AM
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David Ortiz hits the ball to the wall in right. Willits leaps, but the ball hits his glove and bounces out. David ends up at second base.
Update: K-Rod gives up the double, after getting the last out of the eighth. He gets Youkilis to ground third, holding the runner at second. It's Crisp, who pinch ran for Ortiz. It appears Coco was picked off, but the ump called him safe.
Update: J.D. Drew hits a 2-2 pitch into the batter's eye in centerfield. Boston takes back the lead 7-5. It's not a blown save, but K-Rod could walk away with the loss here. K-Rod only gave up four homers this season, one of those against the Red Sox.
Looks like Drew's back is okay.
Update: Bay and Kotsay single. Scioscia sticks with Rodriguez against Varitek.
Update: It pays off as Jason hits into a double play. LAnaheim scored one run in five different innings tonight. They need to find a way to score two in the ninth.
Posted by StatsGuru at 01:05 AM
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The Angels finally get an extra base hit, and it's a rare one. Figgins drives the ball into the gap and ends up at third with a triple leading off the eighth. The Angels are in a great position to tie the game.
Chone has 46 career triples, but only one this season. He was really burning up the base paths to stretch that to three bases.
Update: Jonathan Papelbon comes on for a six out save.
Update: Garret Anderson pops out to third in foul territory.
Update: Teixeira, however, delivers a sacrifice fly. Papelbon blows the save and it's a 5-5 game.
Update: Guerrero pops out to end the inning. Papelbon gets three fly balls, but one was just too deep.
Posted by StatsGuru at 12:53 AM
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Teixeira and Guerrero lead of the bottom of the seventh with singles. They're both five for seven in the series, all singles. In fact, all 19 Angels hits in the series are singles. This wasn't a great power team, posting a .413 slugging percentage on the season, but this is ridiculous. Masterson replaces Okajima and Hunter flies out on the first pitch.
Update: Juan Rivera walks on a 3-2 pitch to load the bases. This would be a good time for the Angels first extra-base hit.
Update: What a difference between Rivera and Howie Kendrick. Rivera waited for his pitch, and when he didn't get it he took a walk. Howie swung at each of the offerings, and at leas two were out of the strike zone. A very poor piece of hitting in an important situation.
Update: Napoli lays off the low pitches and draws a bases loaded walk to cut the Red Sox lead to one. It's now 5-4 Red Sox, bases still loaded, two outs.
Update: Erick Aybar swings at strikes, but misses. The Angels leave the bases loaded but chip away a little bit more. Boston leads 5-4 after seven innings.
Posted by StatsGuru at 12:25 AM
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October 03, 2008
Kotsay reaches on a Hunter error and Kotsay singles, chasing Santana from the game. He didn't walk anyone, but the five hits in a row in the first really hurt him. He only gave up eight total in 5 1/3 innings.
Update: Jose Arredondo loads the bases but gets Pedroia to ground out to second. Boston loses a chance to blow the game open.
Update: Matsuzaka is done, Okajima starts the bottom of the sixth.
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:46 PM
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Daisuke Matsuzaka gets a bit wild in the fifth, walking the first two batters. His pitch count is in the mid 80s.
Update: Hunter drives in Teixeira with a single to left. The throw was right on line, but Varitek couldn't get the glove around in time. It's now 5-3 Boston, still no outs in the fifth.
Update: That's all the Angels get, but now they are starting to chip away.
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:23 PM
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With two out and runners at 2nd and 3rd, Figgins dumps a hit into shallow leftfield to plate a run. Bay was playing so far in he almost caught it, and held the runner at second to just once base. The score is now 5-2 Boston in the bottom of the fourth.
Update: Garret Anderson strikes out to end the inning. The Angels and Red Sox trade runs in the fourth, but LAnaheim still trails by three.
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:00 PM
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With two on and two out in the bottom of the third, Torii Hunter hits a slow roller to short. Cora makes a strong throw and the play is close at first. Hunter is called out. He jumps in disgust, and appears to hurt his knee. TBS should have stayed with the game rather than going to commercial.
I rewound it on my DVR and watched it frame by frame. It looks like the ball goes into Kotsay's glove while Hunter's foot is above the bag. I think the ump made the right call. It's still 4-1 Boston after three.
Update: Hunter remains int he game. He looked safer to me on the TBS replay.
Update: Cora doubles with two outs, then Juan Rivera takes a poor route to a fly ball and Ellsbury doubles Cora to the plate. Boston lead 5-1 in the top of the fourth.
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:39 PM
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The Red Sox appear to be taking no prisoners tonight. With two out, Ortiz, Youkilis and Drew pick up consecutive hits to plate a run, then Jason Bay connects for his second home run of the series, deep into the water fall rocks in leftfield. The Red Sox lead 4-0. Mark Kotsay just blooped a single into left for the fifth straight two-out hit.
Update: Teixeira and Guerrero pick up two-out hits against Matsuzaka. Torii Hunter singles up the middle, and it's 4-1 Boston. Time for Rivera to homer.
Update: Juan grounds out to shortstop, but the Angels get a run back and show they can hit Dice-K.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:47 PM
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Chad Bradford gave up a single on a bad call by the first base umpire, but comes back to induce a double play. He finishes off the White Sox, striking out Thome to end the game. The Rays maintain their home field advantage, and can earn some time off with at least a split in Chicago.
The Rays pitching staff bent but didn't break. The White Sox, not a batting average team, knocked out twelve hits, but all were singles. Their usual way of producing runs is to collect fewer hits but send them a long way. For the series, Chicago has 19 hits, only three for extra bases. They're hitting .279, but are slugging just .382.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:18 PM
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The White Sox just picked up their eleventh hit of the game, all singles. They're doing a good job of getting on base, but that great White Sox power just isn't there tonight. They need some kind of long hits to move these runners more than a base at a time. The score is still 3-2 Rays in the top of the eighth.
Update: Swisher strikes out looking to the eighth. He didn't like the call. Why is it when C.B. Bucknor is behind the plate, there's always ball/strike arguments?
Update: Upton triples to start the bottom of the eighth and scores on a Crawford single. The Rays have 10 hits, but with three for extra bases they lead 4-2.
Update: Rocco Baldelli singles up the middle to score Crawford, and the Rays extend their lead to 5-2.
Update: Navarro pops one into short left-center, and it falls between three fielders. Baldelli scores all the way from first with two out, and the Rays lead 6-2. A little bit of skill and a little bit of luck in this inning for Tampa Bay.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:37 PM
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Scott Kazmir gives up a hit to Uribe, then a sacrifice bunt to put the tying run in scoring position. That's it for Kazmir as he's thrown 98 pitches. His 37 pitch first inning allowed the White Sox to get into the Tampa Bay bullpen early. Grant Balfour makes his second appearance in as many games.
Update: The White Sox get Uribe to third, but Swisher flies out to end the inning.
I finally figured out why Swisher has such a low career batting average. He's using Horace Clarke's batting stance!
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:51 PM
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Akinori Iwamura hit just six home runs in the regular season, but he pops one in the bottom of the fifth. Jason Bartlett singled in front of him and the Rays take a 3-2 lead. The White Sox led the majors in home runs, but so far the Rays are on top of that category 3-2.
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:43 PM
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Buehrle is staying in the strike zone in this game. Through three innings he's thrown 46 pitches, 33 for strikes. He's walked none and struck out two.
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:13 PM
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The Rays take advantage of a throwing error to score a run. With Aybar on first, Baldelli lined out to second base. Ramriez tried to double up Willy, but threw the ball into the dugout. That put Aybar on third, and he scored on a Fernando Perez single. It's 2-1 Chicago after two innings.
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:00 PM
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The White Sox put five men on base with three hits, a walk and a hit batter off Scott Kazmir. The Sox collect any extra-base hits, however, so they leave the bases loaded, scoring two runs. It was an unimpressive inning for Kazmir, who threw 37 pitches. No matter how well he pitches the rest of the game, it will be difficult for him to go deep with that kind of start.
Update: Longoria makes his first out of the playoffs as the Rays don't score in the bottom of the first.
Posted by StatsGuru at 06:30 PM
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Ken Griffey Jr. won't play tonight as lefty Scott Kazmir takes on fellow lefty Mark Buehrle. Two things are going against Mark as he makes this start. First, his road record is poor, 4-9 with a 5.05 ERA. While he gives up fewer hits than innings pitched at home, he allowed 135 hits in 103 1/3 innings away from Chicago. He also pitched poorly against Tampa Bay. Again, it was hits allowed that caused his downfall. The Rays collected 25 hits in 19 2/3 innings to hang a 4.58 ERA on Mark. They only hit one home run, however.
Buehrle does have post-season success, however. In 23 1/3 playoff innings he's walked just one batter.
Kazmir presents the opposite picture. Scott pitches much better at home, posting a 2.90 ERA at the Trop. He allows many fewer hits, but many more walks at home. He also pitched well against Chicago this season with a 2.08 ERA over 13 innings. He held the White Sox to just seven hits.
On the west coast, Daisuke Matsuzaka takes on Ervin Santana in the game of the three-A last names. Dice-K won all his road decisions this season, as opponents hit just .178 against him outside of Fenway. If the Angels do get on, especially if Matsuzaka is wild, look for them to run. Six of seven base stealers found success against Matsuzaka on the road, and 15 of 20 overall.
Santana showed great stamina this season. His batting average allowed and OBA allowed do not deteriorate until he hits 105 pitches in a game. Batters do find more power once he gets above 75 pitches. If he's facing one of the Boston power hitters late in the contest, we'll see if Mike Scioscia pulls him at that point.
Enjoy!
Posted by StatsGuru at 04:10 PM
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Paul Hagen advises the Phillies not to let up:
And all I can think about are Alan Greenspan and Larry Bowa.
The former chairman of the Federal Reserve once warned about "irrational exuberance" in the stock market. (And, hoo, boy, doesn't he look smart now?) And when Bowa managed the Phillies, he once illustrated his point in a postgame press conference by stepping from behind the podium and pantomiming the proper way to step on the neck of an opponent once he's down.
The Phillies are in a great position to win the series, and the Saturday matchup favors them as well. We'll see if they have the boots to stomp the Brewers.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:28 AM
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The Cubs are not going quietly. A double, single and a double to start the inning chases Saito from the game. The score is now 10-3. Can Chicago score seven more runs in the inning? Broxton comes in to try to wrap up the game.
Update: Pie walks. Soto gets to keep things going next.
Update: Soto hits it hard but lines out to the second baseman. One down.
Update: Fukudome just stuck out looking, and I think the crowd is mispronouncing his name.
Update: Ward strikes out to end the game. The Dodgers win 10-3.
I'm a bit shocked. The Cubs are one of the best home teams in the majors. They pitched two of their three aces. The Dodgers totally spanked them. Los Angeles scored at will, and totally shut down the multi-faceted Cubs offense. They couldn't hit, they couldn't field, and the pen didn't pitch that well. Just amazing.
Obviously, the Dodgers are in total control of the series now. I may need to start rooting for a Los Angeles/Boston World Series, just to get Manny, Nomar and Lowe playing against their old team.
Yankees fans might be wondering why Joe Torre couldn't get New York playing like this in the first round the last few seasons.
Posted by StatsGuru at 12:34 AM
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October 02, 2008
The Cubs finally break through in the bottom of the seventh. DeRosa and Edmonds hit back to back doubles, and the Dodgers lead is down to 7-1. Those are just the third and fourth hit for the Dodgers. Soto follows with a single to put runners at first and third.
Update: The Dodgers who bring in Wade who gets the final out. Billingsley pitches a great game, allowing just one run over 6 2/3 innings. He struck out seven and walked just one, and the Cubs didn't really hit him until the seventh.
Update: The Dodgers score two more in the ninth. There is no stopping the Torre juggernaut!
Update: It takes until the top of the ninth, but Theriot comes up with an error as he throws a ball away on a grounder. All four infielders have errors now.
Update: Another hit, another unearned run.. The Dodgers led 10-1.
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:50 PM
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Matt Kemp hits a two-out double in the seventh to extend the Dodgers lead to 7-0. The Cubs collected just two hits so far, and only one walk. All the walks they drew during the regular season is what made me believe this became one of the best offenses in the majors.
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:41 PM
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You Can Only Strike Out Manny Ramirez So Many Times
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Manny Ramirez leads off the top of the fifth inning with a blast way over the centerfield fence. Think Reggie Jackson's last home run in the 1978 World Series. The Dodgers lead 6-0.
Update: Top of the fifth, not the sixth. It just seems like the game should be in the sixth.
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:57 PM
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Aramis Ramirez makes an error on a ground ball he tries to backhand. We just need an error by Theriot, and the we'll complete the infield cycle. Furcal follows with a single, and Martin is up in another situation in which he can do some damage.
Update: Martin strikes out on high, inside heat and the Dodgers lead remains 5-0 in the middle of the fourth.
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:43 PM
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Zambrano retires the side in order in the third. Only one of the five runs against him is earned. He's struck out five of the 15 batters he faced, but the Dodgers are four for ten putting the ball in play, also reaching on two errors. Zambrano's defense is killing him.
Update: Billingsley walks a batter in the bottom of the third, but the Cubs still don't score.
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:27 PM
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The Cubs hit two ground balls in the bottom of the second, neither of which is bobbled by the Dodgers. Soto strikes out to end the inning. Still 5-0 Dodgers.
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:20 PM
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Andre Ethier singles to lead off the inning, then Loney, on a hit and run, hits a ball that deflects off the shortstop's glove. First and third with none out for Matt Kemp.
Update: Kemp gets caught looking on a pitch that starts inside and just breaks over the inside corner. Blake DeWitt comes to the plate.
Update: DeWitt hits a tailor made double play ball, but DeRosa bobbles the ball and everyone is safe. The Dodgers lead 1-0. Then Casey Black hits one right at the sure-handed Derrek Lee, and he bobbles the ball for an error. Bases loaded, one out for the pitcher Chad Billingsley.
Update: Chad strikes out. They should have squeezed. Furcal bunts hard, gets it past the pitcher, but slow enough to beat it out. The Dodgers lead 2-0, bases still loaded.
Update: Russell Martin hits a 3-1 pitch to the wall in left-center, clearing the bases. The Dodgers lead 5-0 and Manny comes up as the Dodgers bat around in the inning.
What happened to the team that could barely score 4.5 runs per game?
Update: Manny gets caught looking for the second time, but the Dodgers lead 5-0 going to the bottom of the second.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:59 PM
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Alfonso Soriano leads off the bottom of the first with a single. We'll see if Billingsley concentrates on Soriano or the hitter, Theriot. Given that Torre is managing, he'll throw a lot.
On the first pitch, the ball goes through Martin's legs and Soriano moves to second.
Update: Theriot leaves Soriano at second as he strikes out on a pitch in the dirt.
Update: Lee strikes out as he chases two pitches low and outside. The first was close to the outside corner, but the second was way out of the strike zone. Are the Cubs losing their selectivity.
Update: Aramis Ramirez flies out to center to end the inning. He didn't chase the low, outside pitch. Still no score.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:45 PM
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In honor of Daniel Drezner, who is live blogging the debate so I don't have to watch, I'll be live blogging the Cubs game so you can watch the debate.
Update: Carlos Zambrano makes a nice play off the mound on a soft comeback by Rafael Furcal.
Update: Russell Martin flies out to right for the second out.
Manny is behind 0-2 and didn't like the called second strike. Looked good to me. Manny swings through the third pitch and the Dodgers go down in order in the first.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:36 PM
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J.J. Hardy doubles and comes around to score on two consecutive outs. Hardy and Braun own the only two Milwaukee hits in the game, both doubles. Nine of the ten hits in the game went for extra bases. That's a huge percentage.
Update: Since 1957, only on regular season game with at least 10 hits had 90% of them go for extra bases, Pittsburgh at Houston, 4/22/1979.
Update: Braun drops a single into left to put runners at first and second in the eighth with two out. That kills the percentage. :-)
Update: Fielder's bat shatters as he grounds out to second base to end the inning. Phillies still lead 5-2 in the middle of the eighth.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:32 PM
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For the second night in a row, Mike Cameron starts in on a ball to centerfield, then goes back only to have the ball tick off his glove. Victorino gets his second double of the game to go with the grand slam. The Phillies still lead 5-1 in the bottom of the sixth.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:10 PM
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The Phillies still lead 5-1 going to the bottom of the fifth. CC Sabathia leaves after 3 2/3 innings. He gave up six hits, five doubles and a home run. He allowed just 20 extra-base hits in 17 starts for the Brewers in the regular season. It looks like one too many games on three days rest, or the Phillies are just a tougher team than San Diego, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Washington. Nine of his starts came against that group.
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:51 PM
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Werth and Feliz hit back-to-back doubles in the second, tying the game at one. Sabathia gave up about one extra-base hit per game since joining the Brewers. So far he's allowed three hits, all doubles.
Update: Sabathia just walked Brett Myers and Jimmy Rollins to load the bases with two out. There's no excuse for walking Myers. He's not improving on his 7.17 post-season ERA so far.
Update: Victorino puts a ball in the seats down the rightfield line for a grand slam. Four hits off Sabathia, four extra base hits. Philadelphia leads 5-1.
Update: Utley strikes out for the second time, but CC puts the Brewers in a big hole. They go to the third trailing 5-1.
Posted by StatsGuru at 06:44 PM
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The Brewers get a run in the first as Brett Myers walks J.J. Hardy with the bases loaded. The Phillies get a runner to third in the first, but Sabathia strikes out Utley and Howard to end the inning. The Brewers lead 1-0 going to the bottom of the second.
Posted by StatsGuru at 06:34 PM
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The Rays leave the bases loaded in the eighth. The White Sox need three runs for a tie.
Update: Dan Wheeler comes on for the save.
Update: Opps. Konerko takes off his equipment and heads to first base after ball three. He was the only person in the park who thought he walked.
Update: Konerko fouls off a few pitches then hits a long home run just inside the leftfield foul pole. It's 6-4 Rays with none out.
Update: Griffey flies out to left for the first out.
Update: Alexei Ramirez strikes out. Two down.
Update: Pierzynski flies out to center, and the Rays win their first post-season game. Longoria earned his big contract today with two home runs, a single, a walk, a stolen base and three RBI. Nice job by the Rays of responding the to White Sox taking a 3-1 lead. The Rays bullpen struck out five of the nine batters they faced as Chicago goes down 6-4.
Posted by StatsGuru at 05:33 PM
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With two out and a lefty, Carl Crawford coming up, Ozzie Guillen has Richard issue an unintentional walk to Longoria. Evan tries to steal, Richard throws to first, and they Evan still steals the base. He continues to be practically perfect in every way.
Update: Crawford grounds out to end the inning. The White Sox have six outs to spend on three runs.
Posted by StatsGuru at 05:06 PM
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In the top of the seventh, a single, strikeout, walk and HBP loads the bases with one out. Maddon comes out to remove Shields. He pitched a good game, but a big hit might deprive him of a win.
Update: Grant Balfour enters the game. The Rays hope he doesn't live up to his name in this situation.
Update: Balfour strikes out Uribe. Two out.
Update: Orlando Cabrera does a lot of jawing during his at bat, but strikes out anyway. I'm guessing he was trying to cause trouble to distract Grant, but it didn't work. Batters were 0 for 5 with the bases loaded against Balfour with a sacrifice fly and a walk during the regular season.
Posted by StatsGuru at 04:51 PM
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After the Crawford single, Clayton Richard strikes out five batters in a row. He only struck out 29 in 47 2/3 innings during the regular season. The Rays still lead 6-3 at the end of six innings.
Posted by StatsGuru at 04:41 PM
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Things settled down in this game with no scoring in the last three half innings. Both pitchers are showing good control, with Vazquez recording the only walk. Still 4-3 Rays going to the bottom of the fifth.
Update: Longoria comes up in the fifth with two on and one out.
Update: Longoria singles in the shortstop hole, just out of the reach of Cabrera. Upton scores easily from second, and the Rays lead 5-3. Longoria's BA and OBA stay at 1.000 but his slugging percentage drops to 3.000.
Update: That's it for Vazquez as Clayton Richard enters the game to face Carl Crawford.
Update: Crawford grounds a shot up the middle for another run, and the situation remains men on 1st and 2nd with one out. They now lead 6-3.
Update: Richard gets out of the inning with no more damage. With four innings to go the Rays lead 6-3. They've out-hit Chicago 9-5 with four extra-base hits to Chicago's two. The White Sox are supposed to be the power team.
Posted by StatsGuru at 04:04 PM
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Evan Longoria gets a nice upper cut on a pitch low in the strike zone and drives it out of the park leading off the second. It's the first hit and run of the game. Not bad for his first plate appearance in the Rays first post-season game in Longoria's first season.
Update: Navarro doubles on a pop up down the leftfield line that the shortstop, third baseman and leftfielder lose in the roof. Vazquez strikes out the other three batters, however, and the Rays come away with the one run. 1-0 Tampa Bay after two innings.
Posted by StatsGuru at 02:58 PM
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James Shields gets Orlando Cabrera to fly out to right as the Rays start their post-season history.
Update: Shields gets a strikeout and a ground out to end the inning. He throws ten pitches, eight for strikes.
Update: Javier Vazquez matches Shields in the bottom of the first. He collects a ground out, fly out and strikeout, throwing just eight pitches.
Posted by StatsGuru at 02:39 PM
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The Rays host their first post-season baseball game ever as the White Sox come to town to start the ALDS. Javier Vazquez kicks off the series for Chicago. I wonder how many pitchers with sub .500 records started the first game of a playoff series? Vazquez is coming off a poor September in which he went 2-4 with a 6.25 ERA. His K/BB/HR numbers weren't that different, but he gave up most of his extra-base hits with men on base.
James Shields gets the ball for the Rays. For the second year in a row, Shields pitched exactly 215 innings. He allowed more hits and walks, but four fewer home runs helped lower his ERA three tenths of a run.
The Brewers hope CC Sabathia's success on three days rest continues into the post season as they send him against Brett Myers of the Phillies. In 17 games with the Brewers, Sabathia allowed just 20 extra-base hits, none to a left-handed batter. Only five came with men on base. Myers suddenly became hittable in his last two starts, giving up 19 hits in 8 1/3 innings. He had allowed 24 hits in his previous 31 1/3 innings.
The Dodgers go for a commanding 2-0 lead over the Cubs as they send Chad Billingsley against Carlos Zambrano. The Dodgers' strikeout artist fanned 15 Cubs in eleven innings of work this season, but also allowed three home runs for a 4.91 ERA. With the exception of the no-hitter against a shell shocked Astros team, Zambrano pitched poorly over his last five starts. In the other four, he allowed 22 runs, all earned in 15 2/3 innings. Walks were the big culprit as he issued 14 in those four games.
Enjoy!
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:59 AM
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The Rays left injured Troy Percival off the ALDS roster and replaced him with David Price. Will Price be the K-Rod of 2008?
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:41 AM
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The following table compares the 2008 seasons of the White Sox and Rays, opponents in the ALDS.
AL Ranks
| 2008 | White Sox | Rays |
| Runs/Game | 5.00 (5th) | 4.78 (9th) |
| Batting Avg. | .263 (11th) | .260 (13th) |
| On-Base Average | .332 (9th) | .340 (6th) |
| Slugging Pct. | .448 (2nd) | .422 (8th) |
| ERA | 4.06 (6th) | 3.82 (2nd) |
| Strikeouts/9 IP | 7.09 (4th) | 7.06 (5th) |
| Walks/9 IP | 2.8 (4th) | 3.2 (8th) |
| HR/200 IP | 21.5 (5th) | 22.8 (9th) |
Why do the Rays own a better ERA than the White Sox? Look at the three true outcomes. The White Sox pitchers perform better at striking out batters, denying them walks and keeping the ball in the park. Yet, Tampa Bay's ERA is almost a quarter of a run better. On the whole, the White Sox trot out better pitchers, but the Rays get better results.
The answer lies in the players on the field behind the pitchers. The defensive efficiency record (DER) measures the ability of fielders to turn a batted ball into an out. The Rays DER in 2008 came in at .710, the best in the majors. Chicago posted a .686 mark, 9th in the AL. Think of it as the difference between a team that bats .290 and one that bats .314. For every 200 balls in play, the Rays are going collect about five more outs. In fact, the rise of the Rays DER from 13th in the AL in 2007 to first in 2008 accounts for a large part in the drop in team ERA. The Rays can afford to allow more balls in play than the White because they are better at turning them into outs.
On the offensive side, neither team puts a lot of stock into hitting for average. They go about generating their offense differently, the Rays dependent on walks to get on base while the White Sox add to that tremendous power. It strikes me that the White Sox staff should match up well against the Rays batters. A staff that walks few batters going against a team with a walk dependent offense can cut the batters OBA closer to their batting average. If the team can't hit, why walk them? Especially if they're not a huge power threat, keep the ball in the strike zone and see what happens.
All this moves me toward picking the White Sox except for two players, Carlos Quentin and John Danks. Quentin's the one player on the White Sox who did everything well offensively. Without Quentin, the White Sox scored 4.4 runs per game in September and posted a 12-15 record. His absence takes a huge bite out of their offense.
Danks helped the White Sox win the battle, but possibly use the war. Danks only gets one start in the ALDS due to his pitching in the tie-breaker game on Tuesday. He's the one starter on Chicago good at K, BB and HR, making him the most likely to defeat the Rays. I like the odds of Shields, Kazmir and Garza against Buehrle, Floyd and Vazquez.
I also like the Rays resilience. They lost seven in a row at one point during the season and didn't panic. They lost Longoria and Crawford to injuries at the same time and showed depth as they kept on winning. In fact, the injuries to those players may actually help. Longoria never played a full major league season before. The full schedule might have taken a toll on him, but now he's well rested going into October. I'm looking for him to have a big series.
Despite the difference in their records, these teams are closely matched. Tampa Bay won the season series, but not by much:
Head to Head
| 2008 | White Sox | Rays |
| Wins | 4 | 6 |
| Runs/Game | 3.7 | 3.5 |
| Walks | 34 | 26 |
| Home Runs | 12 | 7 |
The White Sox out walked, out homered and out scored the Rays, yet Chicago lost the series. I would not be surprised if the same thing happens this time. The Rays, 57-24 at home, the best record in the majors, have that working in their favor as well. I give Tampa Bay a 60% chance of taking the series.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:49 AM
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The Red Sox score twice in the ninth, extending their lead to 4-1. Time for Papelbon.
Update: Jonathan gives up a single but strikes out three batters and the Red Sox win 4-1. That's ten straight against the Angels in the post season. Boston takes command with Dice-K pitching twice on the road and Lester gettiing his next start at home.
Posted by StatsGuru at 01:09 AM
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Vlad Guerrero runs into an out, trying to go first to third on a ball popped up for a hit behind first. Youkilis made a great play fielding the ball quickly and throwing to third. That's one advantage of having a third baseman play first, he can throw.
The Angels are very good usually on the bases, knowing when to run and when not to run. Vlad just got that one wrong. Boston still leads 2-1 with two out in the bottom of the eighth.
Posted by StatsGuru at 12:44 AM
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With two out in the seventh, John Lackey leaves the game with men on first and third and David Ortiz coming to the plate. Gary Mathews misplayed a ball by Ellsbury into three bases. With Pedroia at first after a walk, Darren Oliver comes in to face Big Papi.
Update: Oliver gets Ortiz swinging and the score remains 2-1 Boston.
Posted by StatsGuru at 12:08 AM
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October 01, 2008
John Lackey walks Kevin Youkilis, and Jason Bay makes the pitcher pay with a long home run. The blast lands beyond both bullpens in left and puts the Red Sox up 2-1 as the teams go to the bottom of the sixth. Jason and Manny are even with one home run each in the LDS so far, but Jason picked up one more RBI.
Update: Lester backs up the home run with three straight strikeouts in the bottom of the sixth. That gives him six for the game.
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:46 PM
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A single and an error set up a Torii Hunter single to plate the only run of the game. Lowrie's error should have ended the inning.
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:05 PM
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Kendrick and Aybar just completed a nice force out at second, but with a twist. Ellsbury grounded one up the middle. Kendrick ranged behind the bag to glove the ball, then used the glove to flip it to second. Aybar grabbed the ball with his bare hand to try for the double play. I've seen the glove flip before, and I've seen the bare hand grab before, but not on the same play.
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:45 PM
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Jacoby Ellsbury leads off for the Red Sox and doubles off the rightfield wall.
Update: The Red Sox don't score as Anaheim comes up in the bottom of the inning.
Update: Lester loads the bases but gets out of trouble in the bottom of the first. I'm flashing back to his first year with the Red Sox when he seemed to do that every game.
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:08 PM
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In Ryan Dempster did have a weakness this season, it was in his walk totals. They weren't bad, they just weren't great. His season high was six against Florida, but he also walked five twice in a game.
Tonight he walked seven. Three came in the fifth inning, loading the bases. James Loney made him pay for his lack of control as he took Dempster deep, changing a 2-0 deficit into a 4-2 Dodgers lead. Manny Ramirez added a solo shot in the seventh, and the Dodgers tallied a single run in the eighth to make the score 6-2 Los Angeles as the teams start the ninth. Russell Martin leads off the innings with a homer into the basket in left-center, and the Dodgers lead 7-2.
Dempster did a great job of keeping the ball in the park this season allowing just 14 home runs over 206 2/3 innings. Loney also did a good job of keeping balls in the park as his slugging percentage dropped 100 points from his 2007 number. That makes the slam a bit of an improbable event.
Update: Greg Maddux pitches a scoreless ninth, and the Dodgers win 7-2. That's quite an upset given Dempster's success at Wrigley Field this season.
Lowe continues his excellent pitching, walking one and striking out six over six innings. He only threw 94 pitches, so it's possible he could come back on three days rest in game 4.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:30 PM
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Mark DeRosa drops a ball in the stands, just inside the rightfield foul pole for the first two runs of the game. Edmonds singled just over the leaping shortstop, Furcal for the first hit, and Mark followed with the homer. Lowe only allowed 14 homers on the season.
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:10 PM
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Dempster walks a batter but gets Manny Ramirez to ground into a double play to end the inning. The Cubs are off to a good start.
Update: Lowe also issues a walk but nothing else. We've seen a lot of pitching duels lately.
Posted by StatsGuru at 06:44 PM
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Brad Lidge comes in to get the save in the ninth. He gives up a run but the Phillies take the game 3-1 on three unearned runs. Hamels pitched great, but if it wasn't for the errors by the Brewers, it's a scoreless game going into the ninth.
The injury to Sheets, and Sabathia starting the last game of the season doesn't hurt the Brewers that much. It's tough to believe they could pitch that much better than Gallardo and the bullpen, at least in terms of preventing runs. A tough loss for Milwaukee and an important win for the Phillies. They can lose to Sabathia and still have Moyers and Hamels with the advantage in games three and four.
Posted by StatsGuru at 05:54 PM
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Corey Hart hits a line drive the other way for a single, the first base runner of the game for Milwaukee. Hamels retired the first 17 batters.
Posted by StatsGuru at 04:20 PM
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Corey Hart hits a line drive the other way for a single, the first base runner of the game for Milwaukee. Hamels retired the first 17 batters.
Update: Hamels strikes out Weeks to end the inning. He's thrown just 64 pitches through five innings, striking out six.
Update: Mitch Stetter relieves Gallardo to start the bottom of the fifth. Stetter's control is not great, but he strikes out a ton of batters.
Posted by StatsGuru at 04:20 PM
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Cole Hamels falls behind Mike Cameron 3-1 but comes back to strike him out.
Update: A pop up and another strikeout finish the Brewers in the first. Hamels throws just 14 pitches, nine for strikes.
Update: The Phillies hit two ball hard, but one was at Weeks and the other at Fielder. Gallardo, on a pitch count in this game, needs only twelve pitches to retire Philadelphia in order, recording a strikeout.
Posted by StatsGuru at 03:09 PM
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The Red Sox go with three catchers on their NLDS roster, most likely so they can pinch hit for Varitek. They're carrying 15 position players. That's important because Drew and Lowell are such question marks right now.
Posted by StatsGuru at 01:48 PM
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The NLDS kicks off a little after 3 PM EDT this afternoon as the Phillies host the Brewers. Yovani Gallardo takes on Phillies ace Cole Hamels in game 1. Gallardo threw just 24 innings at the major league level due to injuries this season. He did strike out 20 in that time, in line with his 121 K in 134 1/3 major league innings in his career. Unless he's extremely efficient against a good Phillies lineup, I doubt he'll be allowed to go more than five innings.
Hamels showed improvement in his third season in the majors, dropping his ERA for the second year in a row. He dropped his home run rate without losing his ability to strike out batters. He did allow a 4.73 ERA to Milwaukee this season, however. Hamels is extremely effective against right-handed batters, as they hit just .215 against him with low OBA and slugging percentages to boot. The Brewers send out a fairly right-handed lineup.
Derek Lowe and Ryan Dempster matchup in Chicago as the Cubs start their drive to end their 100-year championship drought. Lowe comes into the series extremely hot. Opponents failed to score against Derek in his last eleven innings pitches. In his last nine starts, Lowe posted an 0.94 ERA. Somehow, he's only 5-1 in the stretch.
Ryan Dempster pitched superbly all season, setting a career high in wins and a career low in ERA. Lou Piniella started Dempster home a great majority of the time, where he won 14 of his 17 games. He allowed just six home runs in 129 innings at Wrigley, versus eight in 77 2/3 innings on the road. The Dodgers were the only club this season that walked more than they struck out against Dempster (5 BB, 4K).
On the west coast, Jon Lester faces John Lackey in the battle of the AL team with the best record against the AL team with the best run difference. Lester showed great improvement in his control this season. The previous two years he walked 74 in 144 1/3 innings. In 2008, Jon walked 66 in 201 1/3 innings. Lester has not been that good away from Fenway, however, posting a 4.09 ERA on the road.
Lackey looked like he might cost the Angels a playoff berth when he and Escobar went down with injuries early in the season. The Angels, however, received fine starts from Saunders and Santana to withstand the loss, and Lackey came back strong as ever. He's extremely effective against left-handed batters this season. They're hitting .221 against John, 80 points lower than righties.
While Lester tossed a no-hitter against Kansas City, Lackey took one into the ninth against Boston. It's an important game in this rivalry, as Manny Ramirez failing to hustle on a ground ball kept the no-hitter alive and was likely the final straw for the fans and Red Sox management. Manny did hit the Angels well this season, so we'll see how much he's missed in this series.
Enjoy!
Posted by StatsGuru at 12:43 PM
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The following table compares the 2008 seasons of the Red Sox and Angels, opponents in the ALDS.
AL Ranks
| 2008 | Red Sox | Angels |
| Runs/Game | 5.22 (3rd) | 4.72 (10th) |
| Batting Avg. | .280 (2nd) | .268 (7th) |
| On-Base Average | .358 (1st) | .330 (11th) |
| /Slugging Pct. | .447 (3rd) | .413 (9th) |
| ERA | 4.01 (4th) | 3.99 (3rd) |
| Strikeouts/9 IP | 7.4 (1st) | 6.9 (6th) |
| Walks/9 IP | 3.4 (9th) | 2.8 (3rd) |
| HR/200 IP | 20.3 (4th) | 22.0 (7th) |
Looking at the above numbers, one might believe that the Red Sox, not the Angels, posted the best record in the American League. Boston outscored their opponents by 151 runs, the best in the AL, while the Angels came in at +68, sixth in the league. That 68 run difference is the smallest ever for a team that won 100 games (New York Yankees, 2004, +89). Not surprisingly, the Angels held the lowest margin of victory (average run difference in wins) in the majors, +2.83 runs per win. That was tied with San Francisco, with Houston, Seattle and Washington rounding out the bottom five. In other words, teams that post a low margin of victory tend to be among the worst teams in the majors.
Near the top of the chart? The Boston Red Sox at +3.96 runs per win. The Red Sox hammer their opponents when they win. Only the Twins, at +4.00 did better. Fans of Detroit and Atlanta should note both teams made the top five. Their horrible records in one-run games pulled them down. Note Boston won 22 of 45 one-run games while the Angels took home victories in 31 of 52 contests.
The small margin of victory caused the Angels to acquire Mark Teixeira. With Mark improving the offense a bit, the average margin of victory increased to 3.11.
The Red Sox are great on both sides of the ball. The Angels offense and defense matched more often, however as LAnaheim scored just enough to win. This should mean Boston is the better team, but the Angels dominated the season series:
Head to Head
| 2008 | Red Sox | Angels |
| Wins | 1 | 8 |
| Runs/Game | 3.67 | 6.78 |
| Walks | 30 | 29 |
| Home Runs | 11 | 15 |
They only faced Matsuzaka and Lester once each during the regular season, but hit both very well. This is the secret of the Scioscia teams; put the ball in play and see what happens. The Red Sox staff, the best staff at striking out batters in the AL, managed to strike out just 5.9 Angels per nine innings. That put more balls in play that usual against Boston, and those balls found holes in the defense. The Angels offensive philosophy counteracts a Boston defensive strength.
I have no doubt Boston is the better team. Player the 2008 season millions of times, and the Red Sox would win more games the the Angels in the great majority of those seasons. The Angels, however, fit their pieces of offense and defense together well. For example the Angels exceeded their Runs Created prediction by 0.1 runs, while the Red Sox fell 0.3 short of theirs. This is a difficult series to call, but I give the Angels the edge, with a 55% chance of LAnaheim going on to the ALCS.
Red Sox batters vs. Angels, 2008.
Angels batters vs. Red Sox, 2008.
Red Sox pitchers vs. Angels, 2008.
Angels pitchers vs. Red Sox, 2008.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:04 AM
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September 30, 2008
The following table compares the 2008 seasons of the Dodgers and Cubs, opponents in the NLDS.
NL Ranks
| 2008 | Dodgers | Cubs |
| Runs/Game | 4.32 (13th) | 5.31 (1st) |
| Batting Avg. | .264 (5th) | .278 (2nd) |
| On-Base Average | .333 (6th) | .354 (1st) |
| /Slugging Pct. | .399 (13th) | .443 (1st) |
| ERA | 3.68 (1st) | 3.87 (3rd) |
| Strikeouts/9 IP | 7.4 (5th) | 7.8 (1st) |
| Walks/9 IP | 3.0 (2nd) | 3.4 (7th) |
| HR/200 IP | 17.0 (1st) | 22.1 (6th) |
The Cubs led the majors if run difference, outscoring their opponents by 184 runs. The Dodgers came in 13th in the majors with a +52. Four teams that failed to make the playoffs finished ahead of Los Angeles, including the Mets and Cardinals. This is one of those unfair years.
Of course, the offense above looks at the whole year, and the Dodgers improved once they acquired Manny Ramirez. Starting August 1, 2008, the Cubs still led the NL with 5.29 runs per game. The Dodgers scored 4.63, 0.3 runs over their 2008 average. That was good for 7th in the NL. So while Manny did improve the team's scoring, he only moved them to the middle of the pack. (Note that the highest scoring team in the majors since the Manny trade is the Boston Red Sox, 5.79 runs per game.)
That leaves the Cubs as the superior offensive team. The Cubs get on base and hit for power extremely well; those are the two things an offense should do well. On top of that, they hit for average. A pitching staff that doesn't walk batters, such as the Dodgers, must still contend with a team that can bang out base hits on balls in the strike zone. The Cubs multidimensional offense is simply difficult to pitch around. If a staff shows a weakness, Chicago can exploit that opening.
The Cubs also trot out a Lake Woebegone offense, where all the batters are above average. In the 1-8 slots, the lowest composite OBA is .342, from the leadoff spot. The Dodgers first five slots are good, but there's a huge falloff from 6-8. Basically, the Cubs sport only one easy out in the lineup, the pitcher, while the Dodgers send out four.
Chicago's staff nearly matches the Dodgers in terms of ERA. The Cubs pitchers, with their high strikeout totals, keep balls in play low. That prevents hits. In terms of BA allowed, Cubs opponents hit just .242 to .251 for the teams facing the Dodgers. Those are the two best marks in the National League.
Not surprisingly, the Cubs won the season series, but it was closer than the record indicates:
Head to Head
| 2008 | Dodgers | Cubs |
| Wins | 2 | 5 |
| Runs/Game | 2.57 | 2.71 |
| Walks | 23 | 21 |
| Home Runs | 4 | 6 |
In May, the Dodgers lost three games at Wrigley, scoring one run in each game. They then split a four game series with the Cubs in June on the west coast. Five of the games were decided by two runs or less, and the Cubs took all five. The loss of Hong-Chih Kuo for the series won't do anything to improve those outcomes.
The Dodgers pitch very well against righties, and that may be an advantage over the Cubs. Most of the big boppers on the team, Soraino, Lee, Ramirez and Soto are all righties. Indeed, those four did not hit well against the Dodgers this season.
With comparable pitching staff and a much better Chicago offense, my nod goes to the Cubs in the Series. I rate them at about a 65% chance of defeating the Dodgers.
Cubs batters vs. Dodgers, 2008.
Dodgers batters vs. Cubs, 2008.
Cubs pitchers vs. Dodgers, 2008.
Dodgers pitchers vs. Cubs, 2008.
Posted by StatsGuru at 05:10 PM
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NL Ranks
| 2008 | Brewers | Phillies |
| Runs/Game | 4.63 (7th) | 4.93 (2nd-T) |
| Batting Avg. | .253 (12th) | .255 (10th) |
| On-Base Average | .325 (10th) | .332 (7th) |
| /Slugging Pct. | .431 (5th) | .438 (2nd) |
| ERA | 3.85 (2nd) | 3.88 (4th) |
| Strikeouts/9 IP | 6.9 (9th) | 6.7 (12th) |
| Walks/9 IP | 3.3 (5th-T) | 3.3 (5th-T) |
| HR/200 IP | 24.0 (12th) | 22.1 (7th) |
This series pits a great offensive team versus a great pitching team. The Brewers rank as high in preventing runs as the Phillies do in scoring runs. They are not much better than the Phillies, however, in keeping the opposition off the scoreboard. The two teams walk the same number of batters and the Phillies are better at preventing home runs. The Brewers advantage comes from more strikeouts and a better DER, but not that much better. Milwaukee's comes in at .708, Philadelphia's .703.
The teams diverge on offense. While a seven point difference in OBA and a seven point difference in slugging percentage doesn't seem like much, combined they point to a big difference in offense. With nearly identical batting averages, the larger OBA difference points to a more selective team in Philadelphia, and the larger slugging percentage difference indicates more the Phillies hits go for extra bases. More men on plus more long hits advancing them means more runs. This shows up in their head-to-head numbers:
Head to Head
| 2008 | Brewers | Phillies |
| Wins | 1 | 5 |
| Runs/Game | 2.67 | 5.50 |
| Walks | 17 | 25 |
| Home Runs | 8 | 9 |
On top of the Phillies bringing a better offense to the series, the Brewers starting pitching stand in tatters. Yovani Gallardo starts game one after a four inning outing five days ago, his first off the disabled list. Even if he pitches well, Gallardo will likely turn the game over to the bullpen early. Sabathia follows for game two, but Suppan and Bush are crap shoots. It's too bad Ben Sheets broke down now after helping the team get this far. He and Sabathia would prove formidable against any opponent.
Meanwhile, Hamels and Moyer are solid for Philadelphia. Even if Myers lost what was working for him most of the second half of the season, Charlie Manuel can call on the bullpen early. I especially like that Jamie Moyer pitches game three on the road, as he's strongest away from Philadelphia.
My matchup to watch is Prince Fielder versus Ryan Howard. Both power hitting first basemen are capable of lifting their teams with their offense, but also pulling them down with strikeouts if they slump.
Based on a better offense and, at the moment, a stronger pitching staff, I give the Phillies a 75% chance of winning this series.
Brewers batters vs. Phillies, 2008.
Phillies batters vs. Brewers, 2008.
Brewers pitchers vs. Phillies, 2008.
Phillies pitchers vs. Brewers, 2008.
Posted by StatsGuru at 05:12 AM
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September 29, 2008
Yovani Gallardo gets the call for game one of the NLDS as the Brewers face the Phillies. He'll be followed by CC Sabathia and then either Jeff Suppan or Dave Bush. It looks like Yovani got healthy at just the right time. Manny Parra appears to be out of the team's plans.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:06 PM
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The Brewers get to face Cole Hamels, Brett Myers and Jamie Moyer in that order. Moyer is 10-3 with a 2.92 ERA on the road.
Posted by StatsGuru at 05:47 PM
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The Biz of Baseball prints the broadcast schedule for the first few days of the division series. Note that according to STATS, Inc., ESPN2 carries today's makeup game between the White Sox and the Tigers.
It looks like all the west coast game start late on the east coast. I suspect a lot of coffee will be sold in New England over the next few days. :-)
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:17 AM
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September 28, 2008
Mike Scioscia announced that Lackey, Santana and Saunders will start the first three games of the Boston-Anaheim series. No surprise there. The Angels go with 10 pitchers and 15 position players. The ALDS roster is at the link.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:26 PM
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The Good Phight looks forward to the Phillies playing the Brewers:
Since the wild card team cannot play the champion of their division in the Division Series (the Cubs, who finished with the best record in the league), the Brewers return to Citizens Bank Park Wednesday to face the Phillies. Milwaukee's rotation is a work in progress, with one ace, Ben Sheets, evidently injured and the other, CC Sabathia, coming off a heroic complete-game win today on three days' rest. What we do know is that Cole Hamels will take the hill for the Phillies on Wednesday.
Might Yovani Gallardo get the start for the Brewers in game one, or will it go to Manny Parra?
Posted by StatsGuru at 06:34 PM
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Cole Hamels gets the call for game one of the NLDS, but Charlie Manuel has yet to name his number two starter. It may depend on the Phillies opponent, the Brewers or the Dodgers.
Posted by StatsGuru at 02:26 PM
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September 27, 2008
In a battle of the second strings, the Yankees bottom of the order spanked the Red Sox minor leauge pitchers 19-8. The loss settles the AL East, as Tampa Bay wins the division, the first time since 1997 that a team other than New York or Boston won the AL East. It also confirms the first post season series as the Angels host the Red Sox. LAnaheim went 8-1 against Boston this season.
Congratulations to the Rays on their climb from worst to first. With the Angels holding the best record in the AL, and the ALDS holding the extra day off, LAnaheim gets to choose which schedule they'd like to play. It appears they chose the extra day off, although it still says tentative. That allows the Red Sox to be able to bring Beckett back on full rest in game 4. The extra day of rest also means they would face Dice-K twice in Anaheim if the series goes five. He's 9-0 on the road with a 2.37 ERA. That would be the best in the AL if Matsuzaka had pitched five more innings away from Fenway.
I'll see if I can confirm this is true.
Update: Yes, the Angels chose the longer series:
"It was probably more related in-house, what we're looking to do," Scioscia said in announcing the decision to take the longer of the two series, with off-days before Games 2, 3 and 5. "We'll be able to trim our pitching staff."
The Angels figure to go with 10 pitchers and 15 position players. By taking the shorter series, they probably would have needed 11 pitchers.
It's like the good old days when there were plenty of bench players for late inning moves. This should be an interesting strategic series since both managers know how to put the players on their rosters in a position to succeed.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:06 AM
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September 26, 2008
The Cubs announced their rotation for the LDS. Ryan Dempster leads off, followed by Zambrano, Harden and Lilly. I like this lineup. Dempster's more consistent than Zambrano and more durable than Harden. He's the pitcher I'd want to go twice in the series.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:18 PM
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October 09, 2007
The Good Phight points out how small market teams triumphed over larger market teams in each of the four series. My guess is the numbers somewhat underestimate the Red Sox market and somewhat over estimate the Angels market, but the point is well taken. What's more interesting to me is that three of the four teams in the LCS developed teams with a high percentage of home grown players (although the Phillies are a lot like that, too, and the Yankees are decently home grown). That's a good sign teams are learning you can develop young talent and still be successful, even if for only a short period of time.
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:15 AM
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The New York Times makes a point about randomness:
It is trendy now to call the postseason a crapshoot, in which the unforeseen -- like a swarm of midges from Lake Erie disrupting Game 2 -- can obscure which team is best. But Steinbrenner has never believed that, and when Torre won four titles so quickly, he set an almost impossibly high standard for himself.
Post season series tend to be against fairly evenly matched teams. Little things that might even out over a 162 game season are magnified. A ball taking a bad hop, a missed call by an umpire, or an act of nature can have huge effects. Even a bad outing by your top starter (which happens during the regular season) can mean the difference between playing game five and going home after game four.
As for Torre, I hate to see people fired after success, although success in the Yankees world is nothing short of a World Championship. But if the Yankees aren't going to renew Torre's contract, now is probably a good time. The Yankees are undergoing a change similar to the one that brought them back into prominence in the middle 1990s. Maybe they need a new perspective on the team, as they did in 1996.
That's really tough to believe however. Joe Torre is a good manager of people. For twelve years he kept the Bronx Zoo locked in a cabinet in his office. He was the man who absorbed all the bad energy and turned it into something positive. I suspect, as happened last year, Cashman and the Steinbrenner children will lobby dad on behalf of Torre. It probably won't work this time. Joe's not a perfect manager, but he was the perfect man for this job. The Yankees might hire a better strategist, but I doubt they'll find someone who can handle the egos of the ownership, players and NY media as well as Torre.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:11 AM
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I Love it When a Plan Comes Together
Permalink
The Cleveland Plain Dealer notes Eric Wedge's strategy worked:
It was widely speculated that Wedge had made a tactical error by not bringing Sabathia back on short rest to pitch Game 4. The common sentiment was the Yankees would roll over Byrd.
Wedge refused to start Sabathia because Byrd had won 15 games during the season and Sabathia threw 114 pitches in five innings in Thursday's Game 1 victory. Now he'll have Sabathia and Fausto Carmona, who each won 19 games during the regular season, ready to start Games 1 and 2 in the ALCS on full rest.
A Byrd win would result in a high positive outcome, and that's what Wedge received.
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:55 AM
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October 08, 2007
Cleveland takes the ALDS three games to one. It was a series of timing. Cleveland always got the big hit, and the Yankees never seemed to put two together. Outside of Carmona, the Yankees had plenty of chances against Sabathia, Westbrook and Byrd, but only could deliver against Jake. Six of the seven home runs hit by the Yankees were solo shots. The three run shot by Damon came in the only game they won.
The Indians bullpen pitched extremely well. They picked up Sabathia in game one and Byrd tonight. The Cleveland hitters were impressively selective, working the Yankees pitchers deep into counts, and getting hits on tough pitches.
Congratulations to the Indians on a great win! We now have three teams in the semi-finals that developed players from within. That's great to see. There's more than one way to win in this game, and player development is carrying the day so far.
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:43 PM
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Joe Borowski is in to start the ninth against Jeter.
Update: Jeter pops up to second. One out.
Update: Abreu blasts one into the upper deck down the line for the Yankees third solo home run of the game. That makes it 6-4. They need to hit one of those with men on base.
Update: Rodriguez flies out to right, and despite what the announcer said, it wasn't shallow. Cleveland needs one more out to reach the LCS.
Update: Posada strikes out after a long foul ball. The Indians win and will face Boston in the ALCS.
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:33 PM
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Martinez and Peralta lead off the ninth with singles. Lofton ground into a force, but that leaves a runner at third with less than two out.
Update: Gutierrez strikes out, then Blake hits one far to left-center. Damon just runs it down by the 399 FT sign to keep the Yankees in the game as they come up in the ninth.
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:26 PM
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The Yankees go 1-2-3 in the eighth. Jeter, Abreu and Rodriguez will bat in the bottom of the ninth.
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:20 PM
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After getting an out, Veras allows a double and issues an intentional walk in the eighth. That brings in Mariano Rivera to try to shut the door.
Update: Rivera gets two ground balls to end the inning. Hafner is arguing catcher's interference. He loses the argument.
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:04 PM
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Alex Rodriguez gets all of a Perez pitch and ball lands in the net over the retired numbers. That makes the score 6-3 in favor of Cleveland.
What I like about that, from the Yankees point of view, is that it turns the game into a save situation. I like New York's chances against Borowski in a close game.
Update: Here's A-Rod approaching the plate after the blast.

Update: That's all the Yankees get. They're keeping hope alive, however.
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:45 PM
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Robinson Cano leads off the bottom of the sixth with a home run to right center. That makes the score 6-2 and chases Byrd from the game. The Yankees hit .348 against Byrd tonight, drawing two walks. Paul however, bent but didn't break as six of the eight hits were singles, and singles that moved the runners just one base. The Yankees got on base well enough to score, but couldn't supply the power with men on base.
Now they face Perez, who hasn't allowed a hit in this series.
Update: With one out, Duncan ends Perez's no-hit streak with a liner up the middle.
Update: Yes, that's his third. He hit into 21 during the regular season.
Update: Damon pulls a hit past the first baseman to put runners at first and third with one out.
Update: Jeter grounds into a double play to end the inning. That's at least the third of the series for Derek.
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:07 PM
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Mike Mussina leaves with two out and one on in the sixth. Mike should have been out of the inning, but the first base ump blew the call on Sizemore's grounder to first. Villone is in to face Hafner.
Mussina didn't pitch well, allowing four hits and four walks in 4 2/3 innings. The Yankees needed him to close the door and he couldn't do it.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:58 PM
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Shoppach doubles and Sizemore walks to start the fourth. Eleven of nineteen Cleveland batters reached base tonight by a hit, walk or hit by pitch.
Update: A bunt and a walk loads the bases for Victor Martinez.
Update: Martinez grounds one the opposite way through the short stop hole to drive in two runs. The Indians lead 6-1 and the probability of the Indians ending this series tonight climbs some more.
Update: A double play ends the inning, but the Yankees are now in a five run hole. The Yankees did average close to six runs a game this season, so maybe they still have a shot.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:21 PM
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After A-Rod strikes out for the second time, Jorge Posada doubles off the wall in right-center. That's the Yankees first extra-base hit of the game. Matsui grounds out down the first base line on a nice play by Martinez to put Posada at third.
The Yankees are being more aggressive on the first pitch, but I'm not sure why. Yes, Byrd was getting that pitch over, but the Yankees were hitting him well being selective. Cano swings at the first pitch, fouls it, then flies out to center. The Yankees waste another runner in scoring position.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:09 PM
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Mike Mussina walks the first batter in the inning but strikes out the last two as for the first time tonight the Indians are held scoreless in an inning. The Yankees are hitting .400 against Byrd so far tonight, but only have one run to show for it.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:04 PM
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The home plate ump blows a catchers interference call, but Matsui walks anyway. Cano singles and for the second inning in a row the Yankees put men on first and second. Cabrera pops out, however, for the first out.
Update: The umps miss another call as Mientkiewicz swings and misses, but it's called a check swing. Doug ends up walking, loading the bases for Damon who pops out down the leftfield line. It's up to Jeter.
Update: Jeter grounds one hard down the third-base line. Blake gets a glove on it but can't field it, and New York gets one run. The bases are still loaded, this time for Bobby Abreu.
Update: Abreu gets in a good swing, but flies out to centerfield. It's taken over an hour to play two innings.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:39 PM
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The Indians first two batters in the second both single. Gutierrez lined one to center, and Blake grounded one through the hole. Wang is getting his pitches up, so event the balls hit on the ground are hard hit.
Update: Shoppach gets hit by a pitch. He was bunting, and they say it hit him in the hand. I can't tell from the replay. It looks like it got the bat to me. But that's all for Wang as Mussina comes into the game with none out and the bases loaded.
Update: Here's the Yankees arguing the HBP call.

Update: Mussina induces a double play, which scores a third run. Cleveland leads 3-0.
Update: Cabrera dumps one into centerfield for an RBI single. The Indians now lead 4-0. The Yankees have their work cut out for them.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:09 PM
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Jeter and Abreu single, but A-Rod strikes out swinging and Lofton makes a catch on a short fly ball by Posada. Jorge ALDS numbers this season are quite poor also, 1 for 11. Jorge not hitting is a huge chuck out of the Yankees offense.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:03 PM
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Here's a shot of the field.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:56 PM
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Hits by Hafner and Peralta plate another run in the first. Wang get three ground balls around his three hits allowed.
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:50 PM
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Baseball Musings roving reporter Jim Storer reports by camera phone from Yankee Stadium tonight. Thanks to Ed Vescovi, pictured below, for getting inviting Jim along.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:43 PM
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Grady Sizemore makes the decision to start Wang look wrong as he leads off the game with a home run to right-center. While Wang did pitch better at Yankee Stadium this year, he did give up more home runs there.
By the way, while I understand not starting Sabathia, why isn't Victor Martinez starting?
Update: Sorry, Martinez is at first. I saw Shoppach and assumed Victor wasn't in the lineup.
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:38 PM
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Ron Villone replaced Roger Clemens on the Yankees ALDS roster today:
Roger Clemens was removed from the New York Yankees' division series roster Monday, replaced by left-handed reliever Ron Villone. Under a new rule, Clemens now is ineligible for the AL championship series if the Yankees advance.
He could return to the roster if New York reaches the World Series.
Clemens re-injured a hamstring Sunday and left in the third inning of New York's 8-4 win over the Cleveland Indians.
If the Yankees don't get to the World Series, we saw Roger's last game Sunday night.
Posted by StatsGuru at 06:04 PM
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6-4-2 Reviews the Angels LDS defeat.
The Angels don't seem to have learned anything from their 2005 ALCS shutdown against the White Sox, nor from the beatdown the Red Sox put on them in 2004. The singles-n-speed offense is just too easy to silence if the opposition doesn't give up baserunners, or if they don't give up baserunners in succession. Balance is the key (ask Oakland how they like their patient offense that gets guys on base but never home).
The Red Sox put a good defense on the field, which makes that singles offense even more difficult to execute. It's tough to sneak a ground ball through that infield.
Posted by StatsGuru at 04:48 PM
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Paul Byrd
Photo: Andy Altenburger/Icon SMI
The Cleveland Indians send Paul Byrd against Chien-Ming Wang tonight in New York. The decision to pitch Byrd is
causing some controversy, as Byrd was lit up by the Yankees in the regular season. Paul is a control artist, who survives by not giving up free passes while allowing a lot of hits. Even though opponents hit .301 against him, they only managed a .329 OBA, and that's what really matters. He's the kind of pitcher who works well against a high OBA, low batting average team, as he takes away their main weapon. But against a high OBA, high BA team like New York, he'll be in a bit of trouble. The Yankees are perfectly happy to take a walk, but they are also perfectly happy to pound the ball if you put it in the strike zone.
The downside of starting Sabathia comes if C.C. loses. Then Carmona pitches on Wednesday, and Wedge will have burned both starters for the series opener in Boston. However, if Sabathia win, Carmona goes in game 1 and C.C. goes in game 2 on normal rest.
Chien-Ming Wang
Photo: Jeff Zelevansky/Icon SMI
Wang starting on short rest is no sure thing. This game might end up 5-5 after three innings with the teams in the bullpen, and in that case, Cleveland has the advantage. Wang did pitch very well at Yankee Stadium this season, posting a 2.75 ERA and allowing fewer base runners per nine, his batting average and OBA allowed both 65 points lower.
I can't blame Wedge here. He has two shots at winning this series, and why not take the first with one that puts you in better shape for the LCS? Torre has no choice, and has to hope Wang won't wilt two games in a row. Sabathia is probably the better move, but these games can be so dependent on luck, Byrd could end up pitching a magnificent game. We'll see in a few hours.
Enjoy!
Posted by StatsGuru at 03:21 PM
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I'm on the road this morning, so blogging will be light. The Yankees decided to start Wang this evening. It's his first start on three days rest. Will this help or hurt? Some people think a tired sinker-baller gets nore drop, but Wang throws his hard. Given that Byrd is starting, the Yankees might get so many runs it doesn't matter.
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:17 AM
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October 07, 2007
The Yankees offense makes a comeback, but they only picked up two more hits than the Indians in the game and the same number of walks. Damon was the hero on offense with a three-run home and four RBI. Hughes was the hero on defense, coming in when Clemens' hamstring forced him out of the game and shutting down the innings, giving New York a chance to come back. I'm showing Byrd and Mussina tomorrow, but that's subject to change. Cleveland could bring back Sabathia on short rest, then have have Carmona on proper rest for Wednesday if C.C. can't get the job done. The Yankees can bring back Wang on short rest as well, especially since he's pitched much better at Yankee Stadium this year. Stay tuned.
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:17 PM
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With an 8-4 lead, Mariano Rivera comes on to close the game in the ninth. He'll face the top of the lineup.
Update: Rivera blows the Indians away easily, striking out two. There won't be four sweeps, and Monday night baseball. Joe Torre gets to manage another day.
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:10 PM
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Alex Rodriguez beats out an infield grounder to start the bottom of the sixth, chasing Westbrook from the game. Westbrook doesn't walk anyone, but he's allowed nine hits. For the third time this season, he performs poorly against the Yankees.
Update: Posada greets Fultz with a single to left.
Update: Doug Mientkiewicz bats for Giambi and sacrifices. After an intentional walk to Matsui, Cano hits one sharpley to right that goes through Nixon. All three runners score and the Yankees lead 8-3 in the bottom of the sixth.
Correction: A-Rod, not Jeter led off the inning.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:02 PM
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After Giambi strikes out, a Matsui singles and Cano doubles to put the tying runs on base. According to the broadcast, it's the first time the Yankees put together back-to-back hits in the series.
Update: Three in a row as Cabrera singles to left to drive in Matsui. The Yankees trail 3-2 with runners at first and third with one out. Damon, 2 for 2 in the game is due up.
Update: Westbrook misses the strike zone twice on the first two pitches, the second one low. He brings the next pitch up, and Damon hammers it into the right field stands for a three-run homer. The Yankees take a 5-3 lead. That's Damon's seventh post-season home run.
Update: Jeter and Abreu fly out to end the inning. The Yankees finally get a big inning.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:33 PM
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The Yankees don't get a batter on in the fourth, so they don't hit into a double play. The score remains 3-1 Cleveland.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:18 PM
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With Matsui at second base in the bottom of the third and one out, Cabrera taps one in front of the plate. Victor Martinez tries to get Matsui going to third and Hideki is safe. That gives the Yankees an excellent chance of bringing in a run.
Update: Damon delivers a base hit and the Yankees now trail 3-1. The Yankees manage to take advantage of Martinez's miscue.
Update: Jeter hits into another double play, so the miscue isn't that devastating. Maybe Derek wants Torre's job. We haven't had a player-manager in a long time. Was the last Pete Rose?
Update: Yes. And Torre was the penultimate player-manager.
Update: Someone in the comments points out that Don Kessinger was the penultimate player-manager.
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:52 PM
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Rogers Clemens walks Hafner to start the third. He stays in the pitch to Martinez, but he doesn't look right. He runs the count to 3-2 before Martinez strikes out swinging on a hittable pitch. Torre takes him out in favor of Phillip Hughes. That could be the last strikeout of Roger's career. He threw 59 pitches, only 33 for strikes.
Update: Cleveland takes advantage of every Yankees mistake. Hughes throws a wild pitch to put Hafner at second. Garko grounds to short, an easy double play ball. But the Yankees only get one out. Then Peralta doubles to right for the Indians third run of the night. They're grinding the Yankees down a run at a time.
Update: The broadcast said Clemens left due to a strained hamstring.
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:32 PM
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Our Long National Nightmare is Over
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A-Rod singled leading off the second.
Update: For the second inning in a row, a double play erases the runner. This time, Posada hits the rally killer. Giambi grounds out into the shift, and the Yankees still trail 2-0.
They're also not working Westbrook very much. He's only thrown 21 pitches through two innings.
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:19 PM
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Clemens is getting his pitches up, and Trot Nixon hits one over the fence in right to make the score 2-0 Cleveland. Trot came into the game with a home run every twelve at bats against Roger.
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:07 PM
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With Joe Torre's job supposedly on the line, Jeter makes a bad throw in the first to allow the first base runner of the game. Cabrera comes around to score and the Indians lead 1-0. Jeter, for some reason, wasn't charged with the error but it was a play a major league shortstop should make.
Update: Jeter continues to have a bad first. After Damon singles to start the bottom of the first, Jeter tries to bunt for a hit, but the ball just goes foul down the third base line. Then he grounds one up the middle that Peralta picks up on the bag for the force and has an easy throw to first for the double play.
Posted by StatsGuru at 06:51 PM
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The Red Sox confirm they are the team to beat in the post season with a three game sweep of the Angels. LAnahiem scored in just two of twenty seven innings as the Red Sox pitchers just dominated the Angels hitters, holding them to four runs over three games. Coming into the series, I thought the Red Sox defense was a good match for the Angels ball-in-play offense, but I didn't think it would be that lopsided.
In the three sweeps so far, a good (or in the case of the Cubs, better) was totally shut down. The same thing is happening in the Yankees-Indians series. I'm not surprised the Red Sox and the Rockies won, but I really thought their opponents would play them tougher.
Congratulations to the Red Sox on their return to the ALCS. Manny and Papi showed they're an offensive force that can carry the team, and the Red Sox pitching staff showed why they led the AL in ERA. Whoever they draw in the rest of the playoffs is in for a rough ride.
Posted by StatsGuru at 06:42 PM
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Chone Figgins doubles down the rightfield line to start the bottom of the eighth. That's a good way to start a miracle comeback.
Update: The Angels don't score in the eighth, but Gagne gives up a run in the ninth. That's not nearly enough as the Red Sox win 9-1 for the third sweep of the LDS.
Posted by StatsGuru at 06:13 PM
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Just like earlier in the game, the Angels fail to score after getting a runner into scoring position, and the Red Sox come back to use their power to score two. Lugo walks and Pedroia doubles him home. He goes to third on the throw and scores on a Youkilis sacrifice fly, deep to center. The Angels have six outs to get four runs. The Red Sox have now pitched 25 innings, and held the Angels scoreless in 24 of them.
Update: Lowell doubles down the leftfield line to drive in another run and put runners at second and third with one out. The game is getting out of hand, and the Red Sox are making the most of their run potential.
Update: A failed fielder's choice, a double by Varitek and a single by Crisp makes the score 9-0. The Angels now need a miracle comeback to win this game.
Posted by StatsGuru at 05:49 PM
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Weaver walks Ortiz to start the sixth, and he's out of the game. Shields comes in to face Manny. Weaver pitched okay, but his two mistakes to the power pair of the Red Sox have the Angels in a hole 2-0.
Posted by StatsGuru at 05:04 PM
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The Angels load the bases in the bottom of the third with two out, giving them the potential to score a few runs. A pop out to Varitek, however, ended that threat. David Ortiz leads off the fourth with a home run, putting Boston on top 1-0.
Update: Manny Ramirez follows with a massive shot to straight away center for a 2-0 Red Sox lead. Manny demonstrates again at the plate. If the Angels get to the point where they have nothing to lose, I think they'll hit Ramirez.
As stated earlier, Weaver runs into trouble in the fourth.
Posted by StatsGuru at 04:13 PM
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Jered Weaver gets into the first jam of the game when he allows a walk and a double to Ramirez and Lowell starting the second. But he leaves the runners on base with a grounder and two strikeouts. Still no score going to the bottom of the second.
Posted by StatsGuru at 03:38 PM
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Jered Weaver pitches a perfect first, striking out both Youkilis and Ortiz. He's been good in the first inning this season, allowing just a .194 batting average.
Posted by StatsGuru at 03:17 PM
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It's "No Tomorrow Day" for the LDS. If the Red Sox and Indians win there's no baseball until Thursday.
The Angels send Jered Weaver to the mound against Curt Schilling in an effort to salvage their season. One thing working in their favor is the best home field advantage in baseball. With a 54-27 record, they were two games better than the Yankees. (Interestingly the four AL playoff teams held the top four home records in the majors, and so far are undefeated at home.) The Angels great record comes from being good on both sides of the ball. They scored 98 more runs at home than on the road, and allowed 42 fewer. Weaver gave up a few more hits and runs at home, but still managed a 7-3 record in Anaheim. Weaver tends to get hit in the middle innings. Oppents hit a combined .327 in the fourth and fifth inning.
Schilling has pitched very well in Anaheim throughout his career, going 3-1 with a 2.81 ERA. In fact, his start there this season was his first loss and the only game in which he allowed more than two runs. Schilling control was great over his last six regular season starts. He walked just four in 38 2/3 innings while striking out twenty two. Since the Angels neither walk nor strike out a lot, the current version of Schilling should be a good match against them.
Jake Westbrook and Roger Clemens battle in the Bronx this evening. Westbrook was one of many Cleveland pitchers knocked around by the Yankees this season. He gave up five home runs to the Yankees in just 8 2/3 innings. He only allowed thirteen all season! (The White Sox also hit five off Westbrook, but in 30 innings of work.)
Clemens performed much better at Yankee Stadium than on the road this season. In New York, Roger posted a 3.29 ERA vs. a 5.17 mark on the road. For some reason, he walked fewer at home.
Enjoy!
Posted by StatsGuru at 02:30 PM
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Rich Hofmann offers a final look at the Phillies year and their short post season.
The lights were knocked out by what the Rockies described as a "computer malfunction," and fixed when they rebooted the computer (and maybe hit it on the side). But for 14 minutes, darkness was both the reality and the metaphor in Game 3 of the NLDS.
For 6 months, the Phillies had mocked both the omens and the predictions. We alternated between skepticism and wonder as the season played out. Our heads told us it was impossible but our eyes told us something else again, especially at the end, especially during a September run when the Phillies and the Mets passed each other on bullet trains headed in opposite directions. ("My name is Mr. Met and I am a gagaholic...")
And now it is over. A grand and fun run to the playoffs, the Phillies' first trip since 1993, is done. The lights came on and the Phils didn't hit for a third consecutive game, and that was that. The Rockies swept them out of the series and the post-season by a 2-1 score.
Both teams executed improbable comebacks to reach the playoffs. One was going to end, and for the Phillies it ended quickly.
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:44 AM
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Melissa Isaacson notes there are no excuses for the Cubs this time:
No curses this time. No villain. No goat.
No ball between the legs of a fielder at a crucial time like 1984. No one offensive slugger silenced like '89. No poor fan upon which to lay the blame like '03.
The Cubs were never in it. Not in Game 3 on Saturday night. Not in the National League Division Series, period.
And the players are upset abot their performance:
DeRosa was particularly distraught about the missed opportunity when he came up with one out and the bases loaded in the fifth inning and bounced into a 6-4-3 double play. It was one of four double plays on the night for the Cubs.
"I thought I had a great at-bat to that point, and I got the same pitch I hit for a base hit the last at-bat," DeRosa said. "In my mind, even if I walk, that changes the whole complexion of the game. The double play is the most deflating thing in baseball."
On the whole, however, it was a good season for the Cubs. They improved by nineteen games, about what you'd expect from the moves they made. That was enough to go from worst to first in a poor division. A quick exit from the playoffs is never fun, but it should make the team hungrier to do better next season. The core will be back, and a few more improvements might keep them from going triple digits without winning a World Series.
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:30 AM
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The Diamondbacks love that they continue to beat the odds.
The win also allowed the Diamondbacks to again partake in their new favorite pastime: basking in their ability to disprove others. They dispatched a Cubs team that, despite having five fewer regular-season wins and playing in a far weaker division, was viewed widely as the favorites.
"Everyone questioned us going into this postseason, and I don't really blame them," outfielder Eric Byrnes said. "But there are 25 guys in here who never questioned themselves. This is how we've been winning baseball games all year - different guys on different nights."
They do not have big-name stars, but they produce new stars for every game, and on this night there were many, from Chris Young to Byrnes to Stephen Drew, all of whom homered. But none bigger than starter Livan Hernandez, whose round, shaved head was doused in alcohol by his teammates time and again in the lively postgame clubhouse.
I'm certainly one of the doubters, having picked the Cubs in four. I wasn't surprised Doug Davis pitched poorly, but I was surprised Ted Lilly pitched worse. I liked that the Cubs took the right approach with Livan Hernandez (waiting for him to throw strikes), but couldn't understand why they abandoned it just as he got wild. If indeed, "Luck is the residue of design," then Josh Byrnes and Bob Melvin get lots of credit for being great designers.
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:55 AM
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Ryan Howard leads off for the Phillies, down one run.
Update: Howard strikes out looking on a Corpas slider. That's the 26th K for the Rockies pitchers in the series.
Update: Rowand grounds out to first, unassisted. It's up to Victorino.
Update: Victorino grounds out to second, and the Rockies win! They were the last NL team without a post season series win, and for the first time in the three tier format, two teams from the west meet in the NLCS. Congratulations to the Rockies on a great win and a great series. I expected more of a slugfest in this game, but it turned into a great pitching duel. The NL plays on Thursday. More Sunday morning.
Posted by StatsGuru at 12:47 AM
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With two outs, Atkins and Hawpe single to put runners at first and third for pinch hitter Baker.
Update: Jeff Baker goes the other way, rolling a ball past Howard who was holding the runner at first. The Rockies take a 2-1 lead! The Phillies go to the pen again, but Colorado is just three outs away from meeting Arizona in the NLCS.
Update: Myers gets Torrealba to end the inning. Corpas needs three outs to win the game and the series.
Posted by StatsGuru at 12:36 AM
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With two out and a man on second, the Phillies walk Matsui to pitch to Tulowitzki. The strategy works, as Tom Gordon strikes out Troy to end the inning, still tied at one.
Posted by StatsGuru at 12:15 AM
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October 06, 2007
Shane Victorino provides some offense for the Phillies with a home run to right center with one out in the seventh. It's just the second hit of the night for the Phillies, but it ties the game at one. Ruiz follows with a single, and that's it for Jimenez. He pitched a fantastic game but can't get the win.
Update: With two out and a man on second, the Phillies pinch hit for Moyer with Iguchi. Moyer also pitches a great game, and if Iguchi can deliver here, Jamie might get the win.
Update: Iguchi pops out to end the inning and we go to the bottom of the seventh tied at one.
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:51 PM
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With one out in the top of the sixth, Rollins walks and steals, and Utley walks to put runners at first and second. Burrell hits the first pitch high into the air for a fly out. I'm surprised a selective hitter like Burrell swung early, rather than making Jimenez find the plate.
Update: Howard grounds out to second to end the inning with the shutout intact.
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:32 PM
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Nunez started the bottom of the fifth with a great throw to nip Spilborghs at first. After a single and a bunt, Burrell fails to end the inning by taking a poor route to a Kaz Matsui fliner that gets by Pat for a triple and an RBI. Matsui picks up his second triple of the post season and puts Colorado up 1-0.
Update: Tulowitzki grounds out to end the inning, but the Rockies draw first blood.
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:19 PM
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Jimenez strikes out two more in the fourth. He's k'd five tonight and retired the last ten batters. Still no score
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:57 PM
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With two outs, Moyer gives up two singles and a walk to load the bases. But the pitcher is up, and Ubaldo hits a slow roller to third. Nunez makes a nice play to gun him out. When the pitcher is coming up, trouble isn't that much trouble.
Update: Dave Frost would have driven in the run.
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:25 PM
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The lights just went out at Coors. The scoreboards came right back on but it's taking the lights a little longer.
Update: They're reporting strong winds in Denver, which might have caused the outage. No telling how long it will be until they're back up.
Update: They're back underway after a fourteen minute delay.
Update: You can see the wind blowing around the hair of the fans. I won't be surprised if fly balls cause outfielders trouble tonight.
Update: Despite the delay, Ubaldo retires the side in order in the second, collecting his fourth strikeout.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:57 PM
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Jamie Moyer throws just seven pitches to retire the Rockies in order in the first. Five of them were strikes.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:54 PM
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Ubaldo Jimenez gives up a walk and a single in the first, but three strikeouts keeps the runners from moving too far. The Phillies fail to score in the top of the first.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:48 PM
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Coming into the LDS, the one positive thing you could say about the Diamondbacks was that their power was middle of the road. That power, however, made the difference in this series as the Arizona out-homered Chicago 6-1, and collect eleven extra-base hits to the Cubs four.
Cubs fans will rightly question Lou Piniella's decision to pull Zambrano early in game one. Lou underestimated the DBacks (as I did in my preview). That won't happen again. I also wonder how much they'll blame the two big free agent signings, Soriano and Lilly. Without both, the Cubs don't make the playoffs. Neither, however, played well in this series. Lilly and Hill were both superior to the pitchers they faced, but neither could deliver.
Congratulations to the Diamondbacks. The team that was outscored during the regular season was not on display in this series. They pounded the ball, pitched well and fielded very well. They make the most out of every opportunity.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:32 PM
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Valverde is on to try to finish the game for the DBacks.
Update: Kendall strikes out looking. One down.
Update: Ward pinch hits and strikes out. It's up to Soriano.
Update: Soriano swings at all four pitches he sees and flies out to right. The Diamondbacks sweep the Cubs and will host the NLCS in a week. Cubs fans were booing, although I'm not sure if it was the Cubs or the Diamondbacks.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:23 PM
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Stephen Drew goes deep in the top of the ninth to make the score 5-1. Drew is three for five and misses the cycle by a triple.
Update: That's it for the DBacks, as they go to the bottom of the ninth. The Cubs need four runs to prevent an early exit from the playoffs.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:14 PM
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The Cubs get one hit in the eighth but don't score. Arizona needs to get three more out to advance to the NLCS.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:08 PM
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The Diamondbacks end the seventh with their fourth double play of the night. They still lead the Cubs 4-1.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:49 PM
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After the Cubs failure to score in the fifth, Byrnes hits a two-out home run off Marmol to extend the Arizona lead to 4-1. Marmol only gave up three home runs during the regular season, and he's allowed two in this series. The teams go to the bottom of the sixth as Marmol does get three strikeouts in the inning.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:25 PM
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With one out in the bottom of the fifth, the Cubs have already put ten men on base by a hit, walk or HBP. Hernandez, like Pettitte last night is putting the lead off hitter on often, but the Cubs are just not able to bring many of them around. Chicago has men on 1st and 2nd with one out.
Update: Ramirez walks, the third in the inning and fifth of the game for Hernandez. He's losing control here in the fifth. The bases are loaded.
Update: DeRosa gets ahead in the count 3-1, but then grounds into a double play to end the inning. The Cubs let a golden opportunity go by the boards again. It's the third double play turned by the Diamondbacks tonight. One reason Arizona's team ERA was better than their stats was the number of base runners removed by DPs, caught stealings and outfielder assists. We're seeing that in the DPs tonight.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:12 PM
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DeRosa singles and Jones doubles to set up a potential big inning for the Cubs. Kendall grounds out to short, driving in the first Cubs run of the game. Fontenot pinch hits for the pitcher's slot.
Update Fontenot grounds out but advances the runner to third for Soriano.
Update: Soriano flys out. He's now hitting .167 in the series.
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:43 PM
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Rich Hill walks the leadoff batter in the fourth. Livan Hernandez comes up, squares to bunt. He takes the first pitch, but when Hill comes in with a high pitch, Livan pulls the bat back and swats the ball into rightfield for a hit That's it for HIll. Wuertz comes on in relief.
Update: Wuertz gets ahead of Young 0-2, then walks him. Young is known more for his power than his ability to get on base.
Update: Drew strikes out swinging for the first out. Stephen went fishing on a ball low.
Update: Byrnes grounds to third, but the Cubs fail to turn the double play as Byrnes gets his toe in just ahead of the throw. DeRosa double clutched, and that split second make the difference. The DBacks lead 3-0.
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:22 PM
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Connor Jackson leads off the third with a double and the Cubs bullpen swings into action. Piniella can't wait to see if Hill rights himself.
Update: Hill gets a line out and two fly outs to leave Jackson at second base. Hill's not likely to go deep in this game, however, as he's already at 65 pitches.
Posted by StatsGuru at 06:58 PM
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Rich Hill comes up in the second inning with men on first and second and one out. He bunts, but it goes as a force out 1-5. Hill's a poor hitter, but if you're not going to hit well you should make sure you bunt really well. The Cubs leave two men on base in the inning and trail the Diamondbacks 2-0.
Posted by StatsGuru at 06:53 PM
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Soriano gets ahead of Hernandez 3-1 and works the walk. The Cubs need to be selective with Hernandez to have a chance for success today.
Update: Theriot gets ahead in the count, too, but grounds into a 5-4-3 double play. Lee takes the first pitch he sees up the middle for a single.
Update: Floyd gets hit in the leg. The Cubs have the tying runs on with two out for Ramirez.
Update: Hernandez falls behind Ramirez 3-0, but comes back to strike him out on a nasty pitch that started outside and then broke over the outside corner. The Cubs don't score, but they do get Livan to throw twenty two pitches, and only eleven of them were strikes.
Posted by StatsGuru at 06:27 PM
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Chris Young takes Rich Hill's first pitch into the leftfield stands for a 1-0 Diamondbacks lead. Hill had cut way down on his home runs allowed since the All-Star break, cutting his rate nearly in half. That's two homers for Young in the series.
Update: Justin Upton singles with two on and two out to drive in the second run of the game, and the Diamondbacks put the Cubs in a 2-0 hole. They've taken the crowd out of the game early.
Update: The Diamondbacks leave the bases loaded. Five batters reach base, so the Cubs are lucky to be down just 2-0 after one.
Posted by StatsGuru at 06:08 PM
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Two National League teams go for sweeps today in the National League Division Series. The Diamondbacks and Cubs start the evening at Wrigley with Livan Hernandez facing Rich Hill. As the Arizona Republic points out:
Livan Hernandez
Photo: Chris Williams/Icon SMI
Hernandez has not pitched well lately, posting a 6.67 ERA in his final five starts, but the Game 3 matchup against the Cubs could work in his favor. He has struggled this season against patient hitters who don't expand their strike zones.
The Cubs, though, are known for aggressiveness - their 500 walks during the regular season was the second-lowest total in the National League.
Livan is showing his real age as his K per 9 dropped below 4.5 per 9 for the first time in his career. We'll see if the Cubs make an adjustment and try to be a bit more selective against Hernandez.
Rich Hill mows down batters, with a career 8.3 K per 9 innings. Like Hernandez, he finished the season poorly, posting a 5.08 ERA in September but still earned a 3-1 record. It's not clear why he was so bad. He gave up six extra-base hits with men on first base, but the opposition hit 1.67 with runners in scoring position. It seemed to be bad luck rather than bad pitching. It looks to me like the Cubs have the edge on the mound today.
Ubaldo Jimenez
Photo: Ed Wolfstein/Icon SMI
The Colorado Rockies picked up eighteen hits in the first two games for a .257 batting average, but eleven of them went for extra bases, so the Rockies are slugging .557. As the series moves to Colorado, Jamie Moyer takes the mound against Ubaldo Jimenez. A power team should do well against Jamie who allowed 57 doubles this season, the third most in the National League. Opponents also popped 30 home run against the lefty. Left-handers did give Colorado trouble this year as they were only 20-24 when the opposition started a south paw.
Jimenez gets a chance to pitch the Rockies to their first post-season series win. One thing Ubaldo does poorly is hold runners on base. Thieves were sixteen for sixteen when attempting to steal against Jimenez. He made one start against the Phillies this season, and it wasn't outstanding as he walked three and allowed a homer in six innings. But he also didn't allow much else as the Phillies only scored twice.
Enjoy!
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:29 AM
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Be sure to check out my posts at AT&T Blue Room. Click on sports, then buzz. My latest looks at the Rockies juggernaut.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:47 AM
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Joba Chamberlain didn't use the bugs as an excuse last night:
With bugs visibly stuck to his neck, Chamberlain seemed to lose his focus and control, unleashing a wild slider that allowed Sizemore to go to second base. A sacrifice bunt advanced him to third, and he scored the tying run with two outs when Chamberlain threw another wild pitch.
"I wasn't the only person that had to deal with it and they did fine," said Chamberlain, not wanting to use the bugs as an excuse. "It was disappointing to let the guys down after what they went through and the great baseball they played."
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:43 AM
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Boston win in the bottom of the ninth on a walk-off home run by Manny Ramirez. The Angels walked nine batters in the game. They averaged 2.94 per nine during the regular season.
The teams now head to Anaheim where they'll play on Sunday. Boston sends Schilling and Beckett to the mound, giving them a good shot at coming home with a berth in the ALCS secure.
Two very exciting games tonight, with the big slugger on both teams coming through with two outs for a walk off victory. So far, it's been a fun post season.
Posted by StatsGuru at 12:48 AM
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Papelbon walks a batter, but doesn't allow a run in the top of the ninth. The Red Sox bullpen has not allowed a hit in 4 1/3 innings of work. Now, Boston gets a chance to end the game in the bottom of the ninth. If the Red Sox can get a runner on, they'll bring up Ortiz.
Update: Lugo singles, the goes to second on a hit and run ground out.
Update: Youkilis strikes out and the Angels walk Ortiz to face Ramirez.
Update: Manny deposits a 1-0 pitch over the Monster Seats for a 6-3 Red Sox win and a 2-0 lead in the series.
Correction: Lugo singled. Manny's homer went over the Monster.
Posted by StatsGuru at 12:33 AM
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Mike Scioscia makes a bit of a double switch, taking out Guerrero, moving Figgins to right, Willits to center and Napoli takes over behind the plate. Vlad was hit in the left should with a pitch in his last plate appearance.
Posted by StatsGuru at 12:16 AM
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With two out in the top of the eighth, Papelbon comes in to get the last out. Kendrick hits the first pitch to third, but Lowell bounces one in the dirt and Youkilis can't dig it out for an E5. When Kendrick steals second, the Scioscia lifts Mathis for Juan Rivera with a 1-1 count. Rivera battles and draws a walk (after Kendrick steals third). Willits pinch-runs and steals second with Figgins at the plate. What should have been a one-pitch inning is turning into a good workout for Papelbon.
Update: Figgins strikes out looking to end the inning on a nasty bender by the Red Sox closer. Still tied at three as they go to the bottom of the eighth.
Posted by StatsGuru at 12:08 AM
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October 05, 2007
Scot Shields gets wild with two out in the seventh, walking Ortiz and Ramirez to set up an RBI opportunity for Lowell. That's three walks for Shields and eight for the Angels in the game.
Update: Shields gets Lowell to fly out to center to end the inning. Scot doesn't give up a hit and doesn't allow a run in his two innings of work.
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:47 PM
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With Coco Crisp on first and Lugo at the plate, the Red Sox try a hit and run. Lugo flies out to center, but Crisp doesn't see where the ball went. He scampers back to first in time, but he had gone past second and never retouched the base. The Angels throw the ball to second for the third out of the inning. The teams go to the seventh tied at three.
Posted by StatsGuru at 11:18 PM
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Manny Ramirez hits a foul pop into the first row of the stands. Mathis goes over to catch it, but has to lean over the photo extension and a fan gets a hand on the ball and grabs it. If the photo box isn't there (as in the regular season), it's fan interference and Manny is out. But Ramirez stays alive, draws a walk to load the bases, and then Lowell hits a sacrifice fly to tie the game. The fan earns the Red Sox a run, and people are asking for his autograph.
Update: That's all the Red Sox get, and the game is tied at three after five.
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:51 PM
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Matsuzaka lasts just 4 2/3 innings, giving up seven hits and three walks. He was up to 96 pitches, and after a wild one put a runner at third, Francona went to Lopez to get the final out of the inning. Daisuke's post-season debut goes down as a bust as the Red Sox trail the Angels 3-2 in the middle of the fifth.
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:38 PM
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Catching Up with the Angels and Red Sox
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The Angels lead the Red Sox 3-2 in the top of the third. The Angles picked up three hits and a walk in the second, including a Cabrera double to take the lead. Dice-K is already up to 65 pitches in the third.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:48 PM
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Hafner knew he was getting a strike on a 3-2 pitch with the bases loaded, and he just makes solid contact and singles in the winning run. All night long the Yankees were on the brink of allowing a big inning, and the Indians finally break through. There's only so many men you can put in scoring position before someone gets a hit.
The Yankees are shut down once more. They manage just three hits and two walks, and two of those base runners were wiped out by double plays. The team is just 8 for 66 in the series, .121.
This was the key game of the series in my mind. If the Indians lose, the Yankees go home facing two pitchers they've creamed. If the Indians win, the worse thing that can happen is they come home with Sabathia on the mound. Cleveland put themselves in a great position to advance to the LCS tonight.
And what a great game. Plenty of edge of your seat drama, great pitching, and a bug invasion! The Indians appeared to benefit from the swarm, as the Canadian Soliders were all over Joba Chamberlain's neck and face as he got wild in the eighth. Carmona, however, pitched right through them. It doesn't count, but if anyone turns in their Cy Young ballot late, this game might influence their vote.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:33 PM
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The Red Sox load the bases and J.D. Drew delivers a two-run single and the Red Sox break on top 2-0.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:24 PM
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Rafael Perez repeats his performance of last night, retiring all six batters he faced. The teams go to the bottom of the eleventh tied at one. For the second straight year, the Yankes offense has disappeared in the LDS.
Update: Vizcaino comes in and walks Lofton on four pitches. Another leadoff man on, eight of eleven.
Update: Gutierrez couldn't get the bunt down, so with two strikes he singles to left. Lofton is the winning run at second with none out.
Update: Blake bunts, and the Yankees are walking Sizemore. They also send in Sardinha to play left. I assume he has a better arm than Damon.
Update: Cabrera pops out to first in front of the mound. Two down. Can the Yankees escape again?
Update: It's 3-2.
Update: Vizcaino throws a strike and Hafner lines it into right-center for the ball game. Cleveland wins 2-1!
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:10 PM
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Sizemore strikes out, but the ball gets away from Posada. Jorge's throw to first is high and Sizemore is safe. Another leadoff man reaches. Another bunt by Cabrera, and another runner in scoring position for Cleveland.
Update: I'm surprised they are not walking Hafner to set up Martinez for the double play.
Update: Hafner grounds out to second, putting Sizemore at third. The Indians are a wild pitch away from winning this game.
Update: The Yankees walk Martinez to pitch to Garko.
Update: Garko sticks his elbow armor into a pitch and is given first base. Bases loaded for Peralta.
Update: Peralta strikes out swinging to end the inning. The Indians still have just one hit with runners in scoring position in sixteen at bats.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:48 PM
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Mariano retires the side in order in the ninth. That's the first inning in a while where there was no drama involving Indians in scoring position. Free baseball and bugs tonight!
Update: Carmona is done for the night. He certainly deserved a win in his one. Rafael Perez is on to start the tenth.
Update: Perez retires the side in order as well. The Indians get their second chance at a walk off win.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:30 PM
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