Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
March 10, 2009
The Eck
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Nationals hitting coach Rick Eckstein appears to be making progress with Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns. He made changes to move Kearns back to how he was hitting when he came up. If Eckstein can get Zimmerman, Johnson, Dunn and Kearns to all improve, the Washington offense might not be too bad.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:11 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
January 29, 2009
Looking A's
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Athletics Nation takes an indepth look at the A's propensity to strikeout looking. The team does rank high in the stat, but more interesting are the player charts. There are players like Sweeney and Crosby who get called on the edges, but there are also players like Cust and Hannahan who just takes hittable pitches.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:27 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
January 25, 2009
Rocky Road
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Via Purple Row, Bay Bridge Baseball does some interesting research on Matt Holliday:

The point to all this is that you can't just take Matt Holliday's career splits (.357 at Coors Field and .281 on the road) and say: "Well, he's really a .281 hitter." That .281 average is the sum of a lot of games in which Holliday was trying to get acclimated to sea-level pitching. In theory, if you took Holliday (or any Colorado hitter) and put him at sea level all the time, he'd be a much better hitter than he was wearing the Rockies' road grays.

So if my theory was accurate, I could look at Holliday's road games with the Rockies and see that his performance would improve the longer the team was on the road, because there would be more time to adjust.

Using the Day by Day Database, Jeff Fletcher shows that Holliday gets better the longer he spends on the road. I would not have expected that. After all, athletes train at high altitude so they can perform better at oxygen rich lower elevations. I would think after spending 10 days playing in Denver, a hitter's bat would be a little quicker playing at sea level in Los Angeles or San Diego.

Fletcher's implication is that hitters should be better on the road when they're not playing for the Rockies than when they sit on the Colorado roster. The following table lists batting averages for players with at least 600 AB on the road while playing for the Rockies and at least 600 at bats on the road for other teams:

Road BAWith RockiesWith Other Teams
Charles Johnson0.2330.248
Willy Taveras0.2810.284
Aaron Miles0.2880.289
Yorvit Torrealba0.2500.250
Kirt Manwaring0.2470.245
Mike Lansing0.2740.270
Jamey Carroll0.2750.271
Juan Uribe0.2580.251
Preston Wilson0.2690.261
Joe Girardi0.2740.264
Juan Pierre0.3080.297
Walt Weiss0.2660.252
Eric Young0.2950.276
Ellis Burks0.3060.286
Quinton McCracken0.2910.269
Jeff Cirillo0.3200.290
Neifi Perez0.2820.251
Jay Payton0.3090.271
Andres Galarraga0.3160.274
Charlie Hayes0.2980.254
Vinny Castilla0.2940.249
Dante Bichette0.3160.269
Larry Walker0.3340.282
Jeff Reed0.2860.233
Mike Kingery0.3060.251
Terry Shumpert0.2820.220

There's not much support for the adjustment theory in this data, although we should probably study a few more players on a game by game basis.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:08 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
January 21, 2009
The Right Improvement
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Jeff Francoeur is spending the winter working on his hitting:

What makes him think things will be so different? Changes he made this offseason to his stance. After nonstop tinkering last summer, Francoeur has locked into one approach he thinks will work. Using some advice and video recommended by former Braves Mark DeRosa and Mark Teixeira, Francoeur adopted a more balanced position at the plate, with his hands farther back and a shorter stride. He's been working it into his muscle memory, hitting four times a week since Nov. 15.

Chipper Jones likes the look of what Francoeur has been doing at Jones' indoor hitting facility in Suwanee. "His weight distribution is right where it needs to be and his mindset is right where it needs to be," Jones said. "His mindset is from gap to gap. You can't be out on your front foot the way he was all year last year, and head moving up and down, and his stride was too long, and thinking about pulling the ball around the left field foul pole. His weight distribution is allowing him to think right center to left center and he is killing balls, just absolutely crushing it. ...

"If what he's doing now translates to game time at-bats, then he's going to have a really good year," Jones said.

Okay, but where are the pitch recognition drills? There's no doubt Francoeur can crush a ball in the strike zone, but the opposition knows there's no reason to throw a pitch over the plate to Jeff. Until he learns to wait for his pitch, he'll be a limited offensive player.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:50 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
January 11, 2009
How Many Runs?
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Joe Posnanski comes up with a new use for the Lineup Analysis tool.

*According to the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis -- one of my favorite toys -- a whole team of 2008 Adam Dunns would average 6.67 runs per game -- so that's 1,080 runs per season.

A whole team of 2008 Willie Bloomquists, meanwhile, would average 4.177 runs per game -- 677 runs per season. So using the Musinator, Dunn is 400 or so runs better offensively than Bloomquist. That sounds about right to me. Of course, it's downright frightening to imagine how two Adam Dunns would turn the double play.

Not only is it an honor to appear in a Pozerisk, but I also get a new nickname, the Musinator. That joins Pintometer, the name they called me in the ESPN research department.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:17 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
December 31, 2008
Seat of Power
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Beyond the Boxscore looks at the best pitch locations to hit for power looking at the axis perpendicular to the direction of the ball (inside/outside). As you might imagine, players hit for more power on inside pitches than outside pitches, but balls over the heart of the plate deliver the most damage.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:14 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Estimating the Reds
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Red Reporter uses the Lineup Analysis Tool to estimate the number of runs the Reds will score in 2009. The results aren't pretty.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:01 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 30, 2008
Better Coach
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Mickey Hatcher praises Mark Teixeira for teaching the Angels to be more selective. Too bad Mickey, the hitting coach, couldn't do that.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:46 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
September 10, 2008
Chipper Back
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Chipper Jones is back in the batting race. His three for four tonight makes him eight for his last 14 and raises his batting average to .363. Pujols is 1 for 3 so far tonight, batting .360. Can anyone remember the last time we had a batting race this tight with averages this high?

The Baves with 9-5.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:26 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
September 01, 2008
Quote of the Day
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From Ducksnorts:

First off, if your #2 hitter lays down a sacrifice bunt in the first inning -- as Luis Rodriguez did on Friday night -- then you probably need to find another #2 hitter.
Posted by StatsGuru at 01:12 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
August 14, 2008
Looking for Runs
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A good pitching duel between Andy Sonnanstine and Justin Duchscherer ended when Ben Zobrist doubled home the go-ahead run in the seventh Wednesday night as the Rays maintain their lead in the AL East with a 3-2 win over the Athletics. Oakland continues to sputter offensively. This was the 20th game in their last 26 in which they scored three runs or less.

Looking at the individual hitters, you can find something positive to say only about Cust, Suzuki and Brown, but none of them are great. The overall numbers are absolutely dreadful. An individual player hitting .218/.289/.318 is waiting for a ticket to the minor leagues. The batters have almost 40 more strikeouts than hits, and almost three times as many strikeouts as walks. To turn the Ks around, opposition pitchers are striking out 8.5 per nine against the Athletics in this stretch. There's no way an offense can be successful when they can't put the ball in play often enough. Maybe it's time for the whole team to start choking up on the bat.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:23 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
June 29, 2008
Low Scoring Sunday
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So far, the Cardinals/Royals game stands out as the high scoring contest of the day. St. Louis took that game by a score of 9-6, beating out the battle of Ohio by one run. However, in the first fourteen games finished today, the teams scored just 94 runs, or 6.7 per game. Six game finished with five runs or less total, and the Rangers lead the Phillies 3-1 in the eighth. We'll see if the Chicago teams can bring the average up.

Update: The Rangers win 5-1 bringing the total for the day to 100 runs and leaving the average at 6.7. Ian Kinsler went 3 for 4 today with a triple. At age 26, he's coming into his own as a player. He currently sports a .377 OBA and a .534 slugging percentage.

The White Sox just took a 1-0 lead in the bottom of the fourth on a Carlos Quentin home run. He came into the game with his power waning in June (.435 slugging percentage this month through the 28th), but that home run ties him with Josh Hamilton for the AL lead in home runs.

Update: The White Sox sweep the Cubs at US Cellular Field, taking the last game 5-1. That's 106 runs in 16 games, or 6.6 runs per game today.

Correction: Sorry, there were 15 games played yesterday, not 16. That makes 7.1 runs per game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:27 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
June 26, 2008
Shake Your Lineup
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Charlie Manuel shook up the Phillies lineup Wednesday night to try to break a slump that saw Philadelphia score just eleven runs in a six-game losing streak. Utley and Burrell moved up, Rollins and Howard moved down, and the offense showed a little life. Chase went four for four, missing the cycle by a homer. However, he neither scored nor drove in a run. Coste knocked in two as the Phillies went on to a 4-0 win over the Athletics.

Kyle Kendrick contributed more, as he pitched eight shutout innings. It was easily his best outing of the season, as he walked just one batter and struck out four. We'll see if Manuel sticks with this lineup, or if it was just a shock to wake up the team.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:08 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 22, 2008
How Offense Should Work
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Cito Gaston won his first game in his new stint as Blue Jays manager as Toronto defeated Pittsburgh 8-5. The table setters reached base six times, and the heart of the order drove in five runs. Rios and Overbay each hit a double, and number six hitter Scott Rolen homered. It's only the second time in their last 12 games that the Blue Jays scored more than four runs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:39 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 01, 2008
Nats Naughts
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Chico Harlan looks at the recent poor performance of the Washington Nationals offense. Of course, the problem is bigger than two shutouts in a row. The Nationals have the lowest OPS in the National League. Imagine a team made up of hitters like Casey Blake and Gary Matthews, Jr., and you have the Nats.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:57 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
May 29, 2008
Blue Jays Breakout
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The Blue Jays are pounding the Athletics this afternoon, off to a 10-0 lead in the sixth inning. It the first time the Jays reached double digits in runs in a game since April 15th when they scored eleven against Baltimore. Six of the starters collected multi-hit games so far.

Litsch is making another good start, walking just one through 5 2/3 innings, and keeping the ball in the park.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:37 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
May 22, 2008
What Happened to the Indians Hitters?
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Mark Buehrle came into the game against the Indians having allowed a .318 batting average on the season. The Indians, however, could manage just two hits against the lefty. They lose 3-1, wasting an excellent effort by Laffey. With only one run tonight, the Indians fall below 4.0 runs per game for 2008. With six straight losses and eight straight Chicago wins, Cleveland is now 4 1/2 games back in the AL Central. You also have to wonder if Wedge is moving onto the managerial hot seat with Yost and Randolph.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:54 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
May 19, 2008
Interleague Weekend
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Correction: I figured the runs per game off the pitching file, which means I was looking at the other league. That caused me to report the runs backward. The table above is fixed now. I've rewritten the post to reflect this.

The scoring pattern did not hold over the weekend, with the American League teams outscoring the National League teams.

LeagueRuns per Game
American4.7
National4.5

The American League won the weekend 22-19. There were fifteen one-run games this weekend, and the AL won those as well 8-7.

The National League scored more with designated hitters, although the AL difference remains larger. Also, this really isn't a good comparison until all teams have played with and without the extra hitter:

Interleague Play, 2008
Runs Per GamePitcher BatsDH Bats
American League4.135.59
National League4.384.65

So the NL took their home series 13-11, while the AL won at home 11-6, in line with the run differences.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:12 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Hot Hitters
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Take a look at the latest hit streaks. Of the top eleven streaks, five hitters are hitting .500 or better during the streak. Only Hunter Pence is hitting under .400. Usually, when I look at this list, you see a couple of people with weak streaks; one hit a game, a batting average under .300. This group is pounding the ball, however.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:49 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
May 16, 2008
The DH Difference
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I was just looking at runs per game in interleague games with and without the designated hitter, and found this amazing number:

History of Interleague Play
Runs per GamePitcher BattingDH Batting
American League4.675.17
National League4.734.72

So the designated hitter is worth 1/2 run to the American League, but the NL teams do better with a pitcher! That's how poor a bench the NL has carried over the first eleven years of interleague play.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:11 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
The Interleague Test
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With fourteen interleague games today we'll get a test of the relative strength of the two leagues. Here's how offenses look through intraleague play on Thursday:

2008ALNL
Runs per Game4.344.63
Batting Average.258.260
On-Base Average.328.334
Slugging Percentage.392.409

My theory is that the NL is better because they developed better, younger batters. Some in the comments here have suggested the NL is better because the AL owns better pitchers. Others suggested the AL recently incorporated more glove men into their lineup. How can we tell?

The situation is of course, complicated. All of these factors might be true. If AL pitchers are better than NL pitchers, and there really is no difference in batters, then we should see AL scoring rise and NL scoring fall, adjusting for the DH (or lack thereof). If NL batters are truly better than AL batters, then we should see AL runs allowed s rise, and NL allowed fall on a per game basis.

There's also the possibility that AL pitchers are better than NL pitchers, and AL batters are worse than NL batters. This is a tough case, because we might not see any change here at all as things even out.

The possibility exists of AL pitchers and batters being better than NL pitchers and batters. In that case, the AL pitchers should be greatly superior, since they are holding better batters to fewer runs. In that case, we should see AL scoring go up and NL scoring go down. That would be a very strange result.

This weekend won't be enough to tell, since teams might be pitted against an opponent that is good at neutralizing the other's strength. That won't stop us from at least taking a look at how things turned out on Monday.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:09 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
May 15, 2008
Lower Order Pirates
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The six, seven and eight slots for the Pirates haven't produced much this season. Coming into today, they produced .240, .230 and .212 batting averages, with OPS of .734, .663 and .541 respectively. Today, however, they keyed the Pirates win. The three batters in the slot combined to go 8 for 13 with two walks and a double. They made all those times on base count as they scored eight of the Pirates eleven runs. They take two out of three from St. Louis are find themselves tied with the Brewers for fourth in the NL Central.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:32 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 14, 2008
Home Runs and Temperature II
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Earlier today I linked to a post at Sabernomics looking at temperatures in April to see if they contributed to the fall off in home runs. My good friends at STATS, Inc. were able to supply me with the actual game time average temperatures for the same period. Here's the outdoor stadiums only:

SeasonAvg. Outdoor Temp
199759
199861
199961
200063
200163
200262
200361
200464
200563
200664
200760
200862

While the average US temperature in April was lower than in 2007, at baseball games it was higher. However, this data does show a big falloff over the last two Aprils.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:19 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Different Offenses
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My latest column at SportingNews.com examines the different paths the Marlins and Athletics followed to generate runs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:00 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Home Runs and Temperature
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Sabernomics compares the home run rate in April over the last decade to the temperature in April. The last two season, home runs are down and so is the temperature. The temperature he uses, however, is mean US temperature. I'd like to see someone use actual game time temperature to do the same study.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:24 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
May 13, 2008
Scoring More
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William Burke and Joe Sheehan try to tackle the puzzling question of why the AL is scoring less than the NL, in what appears to be an article available to everyone. My SportingNews.com column looked at this last week, with Burke and Sheehan commenting:

I'm not entirely convinced, but he lays out an interesting case.

These two researchers dig deep into the number and present evidence that fewer fly balls are leaving the park in the AL this year, leading to a large reduction in slugging percentage. However, I'm not convinced as to their why:

I think there may be some selection effects happening here. I've written about this when it comes to playoff baseball. Playoff games are generally lower scoring than regular-season games. However, part of the reason for that is that managers play as if they will be lower scoring, using more one-run strategies than they normally would and emphasizing defense to a greater extent. It becomes, if not a self-fulfilling prophecy, one that gets helped along.

Over the last year or so, we've heard a lot about teams getting away from the style of baseball played during the peak of the high-offense era, and trying to play better defense. Personnel decisions along the lines of playing Tony Pena Jr. or Asdrubal Cabrera add up, and they start to impact the league's statistics. Teams have been choosing defense over offense, and that is probably the biggest reason for the drop in offense in the AL: personnel selection. Managers and GMs are putting lesser hitters on the field in an effort to prevent runs, and they're getting just that result--for themselves and the opposition.

The only place I can see where a team truly traded slugging for defense was at shortstop in Baltimore. Asdrubal Cabrera sparked the Indians offensively last season. The Royals didn't exactly have offensive power houses at shortstop before Pena. Torii Hunter stayed in the AL. The Tigers moved their great defensive third baseman to the bench for more offense. The Yankees play Giambi at first to improve their outfield defense, but they still keep all those hitters in the game. Maybe if you look over a few season it's there, but I don't see it. I notice a lot of old Firstbase/DH types not producing.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:17 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
May 11, 2008
Keeping Track of the Order
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A rare batting out of order took place in the Reds/Mets game today:

Backup catcher David Ross came to the plate to lead off the inning and lined out. But the batter in the No. 8 spot should have been outfielder Corey Patterson, with Ross hitting ninth after an earlier double switch.

Mets manager Willie Randolph came out to inform the umpiring crew of the mix-up. Patterson was charged with the out, which officially counts as a putout by the catcher, and Ross came up again. This time, he singled.

Reds manager Dusty Baker said the batting order was correct on the dugout board and on his scorecard.

"The guys hit out of order, and it's my job to catch that," Baker said. "So I take full responsibility."

When I wrote the game scoring code for STATS, coding this took a bit of doing. For example, Randolph might have decided he didn't want Ross batting again, and Patterson would be skipped. So I had to code in a skip batter event, which given the right situation, a scorer might have to skip everyone in the lineup to get back to the proper batting slot.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:32 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Shortstop Streak
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Jeff Keppinger keeps hitting. He's two for two today to give him hits in seven straight at bats. Six were singles, but he picked up a triple this afternoon. The Reds trail the Mets 6-3 in the bottom of the sixth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:11 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
May 09, 2008
Low Scoring Friday
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It's been an incredibly low scoring night. The Tigers have scored six runs against the Yankees, but no other team scored more than three so far. Of the early games, two are 1-0 and one in 0-0. We'll see how the late ones work out.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:51 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 07, 2008
Shift in Dominance
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My latest column at SportingNews.com examines why the National League is outscoring the American League so far this season. I really believe this is the first indication of a seismic shift in the quality of the leagues. It happened twice before. The NL was way ahead of the AL in signing black ballplayers after Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier, and that led to the NL dominating the All-Star game from the 1950s through the early 1980s. Then, the AL was quicker to harvest the talent coming out of Latin America, and AL became the dominant league, taking over the All Star game from the late 1980s through last season. It now appears that the NL discovered that young talent is better talent, and I suspect they will once again return to being the dominant league.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:55 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
April 30, 2008
Here Comes the Sun
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Earlier in the day, Devon Young emailed:

In day games, the Pirates are scoring 5.7 rpg (40 runs in 7 games) ~ but at night, they're averaging 3.9 rpg. That's a huge split.

It's a small sample size, but then the Pirates score seven runs in the second inning. Five were unearned, but Perez was wild, walking five in the game and didn't get out of the second inning. The Pirates are making the seven runs hold up as they still lead 7-0 in the top of the fourth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:01 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
April 29, 2008
Selectivity Stats
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FanGraphs presents some very cool numbers on batter plate discipline. I'm not surprised to see Frank Thomas at the top of the leader board for lowest percentage of swings at balls outside the zone, nor am I surprised to see Vlad Guerrero with the second highest percentage in that category. There are lots of ways to be successful in baseball.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:45 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
April 24, 2008
Ramping up the Runs
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With the Tigers scoring thirty seven runs in their last three games, they're now averaging 5.2 runs per game. That's still less than I expected, but a few more games like this and they'll be close to six per game. They defeat Texas 8-2.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:23 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 23, 2008
Barry Pujols
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Teams are walking Albert Pujols at every opportunity, and it's causing Albert to change his approach at the plate for the worse:

After leading in the count 3-0 against Guillermo Mota, Pujols took a strike, then swung at two low pitches to strike out for only the seventh time this season. "I felt I didn't want to walk, and I took myself out of the strike zone to swing at that pitch," Pujols said. "The 3-0 pitch was a little low. But I tried to push too much. I should've taken my walk. It's something you learn. You press. It's the way the game goes."

The game increasingly steps around Pujols. He has never walked 100 times in a season but now finds himself on pace for 154.

Through Monday, Pujols' six intentional walks led the major leagues. Only Cincinnati Reds left fielder Adam Dunn had more walks overall (22).

The number was partly responsible for Pujols, as of Monday, being the game's on-base king with a .500 on-base percentage, but it also fed his frustration about too few pitches to hit with runners on base.

More than half his walks (11) have come in 26 plate appearances with runners in scoring position.

Albert needs to take the Bonds approach. The walks are good, the walks help his team. There will be times when the opposition can't walk him, and then he needs to wait for his pitch. That's what made him such a great hitter this decade. There's no reason to change just because teams are pitching around him. The more he gets on base, the more the Cardinals score.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:47 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
April 14, 2008
Flood Gates Open
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We knew the Tigers offense was good, but after yesterday's shutout, the Tigers were losing 5-0 going to the bottom of the sixth. Then they started hitting. The scored four in the sixth, but gave them back in the top of the seventh. They scored one more in the seventh, then hit the Twins bullpen for six in the eighth. Sheffield, Ordonez, Cabrera and Guillen are a combined 10 for 17 tonight, each with at least two hits. They lead 11-9 in the top of the ninth. This could be the spark the offense needed. They've increased their runs scored by 33% tonight.

Update: Jones puts two runners on base but holds on for the save. A huge win for the Tigers, and a tough day for the Twins pitching staff which was performing very well up to this point.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:21 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
April 06, 2008
GDP Tigers
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The Tigers hit into five ground ball double plays tonight, nearly doubling their total for the season. They're tied with the Twins for most GDP in the majors this season.

The Tigers really suffered from Murphy's law in this game. Verland pitched badly, and his defense didn't help him as five of the nine runs he allowed were unearned.

The White Sox, on the other hand, received good pitching, and showed selectivity at the plate as they drew six walks to go with their twelve hits. The Tiger fans were booing tonight, and as the game progressed their home team just gave them more reasons to keep the cat calls coming. They ended the game appropriately, hitting into a double play with the bases loaded.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:58 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 03, 2008
Timing Off
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It's early, but runs are down from last season. Through three days of the season (it really starts on Monday):

Offense20072008
Games3738
Runs340309
Runs/Game9.28.1
Home Runs6574
HR/Game1.761.95

More home runs, but fewer men on base. There's been about one fewer hit+walk+HBP per game this season, leading to a drop in OBA from .330 to .323. Would that be enough to cause a one-run drop in scoring? What's really happened is that players aren't delivering with runners in scoring position. At this time last year, the majors were hitting .266/.355/.369 (BA/OBA/Slug) with runners in scoring position. This year, .247/.350/.381. That's about a 20 point drop in batting average in a situation where batting average does a lot of good. The power is up, but the hits are less frequent. The low scoring so far is a failure of timing.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:44 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
April 02, 2008
Can't Buy a Run
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The Giants haven't scored in 15 innings, and the Astros haven't scored in 14. I know a some point they'll score runs, but you have to start wondering when.

Update: Bourn draws a walk with the bases loaded, and the Astros break their streak in the sixth inning. They trail San Diego 2-1 with the bases still loaded.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:01 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
February 26, 2008
Fixing Reyes
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The Mets are trying to get Jose Reyes out of the habits he picked up at the end of last season. That leads to this being a bad thing:

Jose Reyes swore he was just trying to hit a line drive up the middle, or even to the opposite field, as instructed. Yet with a flick of his wrists he hit a screaming shot that crashed high off the 20-foot fence in center field, 408 feet from the plate.

The ball was hit so hard, in fact, off Joe Smith in an intrasquad game yesterday, that catcher Robinson Cancel, who was on first base, was nearly thrown out at the plate, while Reyes cruised into third with a triple.

Afterward, Reyes was practically apologizing for the shot, knowing the Mets are trying to resurrect his game after last season's killer slump by urging him to think small and slow his body down, at least in the batter's box.

"I don't know how I hit it that hard," Reyes said sheepishly. "In my mind I'm trying to slow down my body a little bit, hit the ball the other way and use my speed. It was a fastball and I just use my hands."

Such is the dilemma for the Mets this spring: Harnessing Reyes' explosive ability in an attempt to avoid the kind of meltdown that crippled the team last September, is tricky business, indeed.

I've seen something similar happen to Soriano. In his last year with the Yankees he hit a couple of home runs on low, outside pitches, then chased that pitch for the rest of the year.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:43 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
December 12, 2007
AL Offenses
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My latest column at SportingNews.com examines if the moves made by the Tigers are enough to move them ahead of the Yankees offensively.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:30 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
November 15, 2007
Sinister Reasons
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The Hardball Times looks at position bias as a major explanation for the advantage of left-handed batters over right-handed batters.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:25 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
September 11, 2007
High Scoring Day
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So far four teams have scored at least thirteen runs today. The Rangers defeated the Tigers this afternoon 13-6, the Red Sox are up 16-9 on the Devil Rays, Florida took Washington 13-8 and the Braves defeated the Mets 13-5. That makes the Angels offense look week as they only managed ten runs against the Orioles!

In the history of the Day by Day Database (back to 1957), there was a day with six thirteen-runs games, June 9, 1999. Four such contests tie for second in that time period. It also happened earlier this season on July 29, 2007.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:45 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
September 09, 2007
Pulling Pitches
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I thought ESPN missed a great chance at analysis in the top of the fifth inning in tonight's Indians-Angels game. Sizemore leads off the inning, pulling a double to right field, not down the line, but to the left of the rightfielder. Cabrera follows up with a double he pulls into the gap deep in right-center. The interesting thing to me is that K-Zone showed both pitches away from the batter. Sizemore's was about 3/4 to the outside edge of the plate, and Cabrera made contact with the ball over the outside edge of the plate. I always hear announcers say how you should go with pitches away, but here were two cases when pulling the ball more outside than inside resulted in long hits. I'd love to hear Joe's explanation for that.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:48 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
August 30, 2007
Historic Low
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As mentioned in the previous post, the Padres have the highest run differential in the National League, +67. That struck me as a very low number for this far into the season, and indeed it is. The following table lists the best run difference in the National League from 1962 to the present, the era of the 162 game schedule.

SeasonMaxDiff
200767
198281
198089
198194
196494
198999
2006103
1984104
1983106
1969109
1992113
1966118
1963119
1973120
1965121
1968122
1995124
1987125
1996125
1970127
1994131
1979132
1991136
1967138
2001141
1978154
1990162
2002167
2003167
2005171
1988171
1985175
2000178
1972179
1977187
1962188
1971189
2004196
1986205
1993208
1997210
1976224
1999232
1974237
1998254
1975254

The Padres are on a pace for a +82 run difference this season, which would just beat out 1982. Even strike years higher than 2007. And this is the problem with parity. It's nice to have lots of teams involved in a playoff race, but it would also be nice to have some good teams as well. There's no inspiring team in the National League this season, no one that's going to get a chapter in the history books. There are just teams that can win on any given day, or just as easily lose.

The good news for an owner who really wants to win is that it should be too difficult. If you're willing to do what the Marlins did in 1997, and spend money on quality free agents, dominating the NL in 2008 should be a piece of cake. The teams just aren't that good.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:23 AM | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
August 11, 2007
Offensive Machine
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The Yankees send ten men to the plate in the second inning, collecting a walk and six hits, the last a home run off the bat of Alex Rodriguez. That gives Alex 112 RBI and 105 runs scored in 114 games played. He going to need a very good finish to get both more runs and RBI than games played. They score seven times in inning and lead Cleveland 7-1 in the second. With Mussina on the mound, however, one wonders if that lead is safe.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:52 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Western Woes
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The Dodgers and Padres each lost this afternoon, scoring one and three runs respectively. That's been pretty much the problem during Arizona's surge. Since 7/21, the Diamondbacks are scoring 5.2 runs per game. The Padres are 1/2 run back at 4.7, and the Dodgers are bringing up the back of the pack at 3.4. That's worst in the NL over that time. A win tonight opens up Arizona's lead in the division to four games over the Padres and six games over the Dodgers.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:34 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 18, 2007
Phillies Phive
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Howard07182007.jpg

The Phillies cruised to an easy win last night, defeating the Dodgers 15-3. Seven players managed multiple hit games, including pitcher J.D. Durbin who collected three hits. The biggest nights belonged to Shane Victorino and Aaron Rowand, each knocking out five hits in the game.

Ryan Howard hit a pair of two-run home runs. Shane Victorino tied a career high with five hits. Aaron Rowand set a career high with five hits. Chase Utley collected three RBIs. Pat Burrell hit his 200th career homer in the seventh inning.

In the fifty seven year history of the Day by Day Database, it's just the eighteenth time two players on the same team picked up five hits in the same game.

With his two home runs last night, Howard has hit fifteen in his last 155 at bats, about one every ten at bats. That's better than his career average of one every 11.4 at bats.

Photo credt: Jordan Murph/Icon SMI

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:53 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
July 07, 2007
Still Not Scoring
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Despite yesterday's big scores, offense remains down vs. 2006. Through the same number of days:

Category20062007
Games12901283
Runs1262812034
Runs per Game9.799.38
Home Runs28732528
HR per Game2.231.97

Major league OBA is down to .332 in 2007 after coming in at .337 in 2006. It's pretty much in line with the decade, however.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:29 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 06, 2007
Power Twins
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The day is not over, but the Twins scored 32 runs on the day so far. In the night cap, they've hit six home runs, three by Morneau. They have the bases loaded with one out in the top of the eighth with a 12-0 lead. They've already scored the most runs in one day in the last 50 years. The St. Louis Cardinals scored 28 on 9/7/1993, the biggest one day total in the 51 seasons covered by the Day by Day Database. The AL record for runs by a team in a double header is 36, but the Twins fail to score in the top of the eighth.

Of top of the great offense, Matt Garza turns in six shutout innings, extending his streak of scoreless innings from his two relief innings earlier this week. He struck out six as well.

Correction: I had forgotten to sort the query result. The Cardinals, not the Braves had the biggest one day total in the last 51 seasons. The Braves, Astros, Orioles and Athletics all had days with 27 runs in that time frame.

Correction: The box score I looked at last night had this wrong. Morneau hit three home runs, Cuddyer one.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:47 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
July 04, 2007
Offensive Difference
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All eight position starters in the Cubs lineup today come into the game with an OBA at or above the league average of .328. Only one Nationals player can say that, Dmitri Young.

Update: Zimmerman, however, provides some power as his two-out solo home run puts the Nationals up 1-0 in the bottom of the first.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:15 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 06, 2007
Old Hitters
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For Baseball Prospectus subscribers, my latest article is now available. This week I look at how hitters are getting older, and how GMs and managers on average do a good job with older hitters.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:16 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 28, 2007
Mariners Bats
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The Seattle Times notes the Mariners offensive rise in the AL:

After all, they just spent the past week receiving the equivalent of a collective cortisone shot. Three games each against Tampa Bay and Kansas City have not only soothed a once-hurting offense, but boosted it into a powerhouse with the American League's highest batting average.

Seattle ranks sixth in the American League in runs per game at 4.85, exceeding their runs created projection. That's more in line with their .331 OBA, which is 8th in the AL and their seventh ranked slugging percentage. In a low offensive year, the Mariners are doing okay. Seattle unintentionally adopted the Angels playbook. They aren't walking much, but their not striking out, either. With 210, they have the fewest strikeouts in the AL. They're putting the ball in play a lot, and good things are happening.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:14 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
May 25, 2007
Where are the Runs?
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Runs are down over .5 per game for May 2007 vs. May 2006, through May 24 (9.67 in 2006 vs. 9.13 in 2007). I checked with my good friends at STATS, Inc. and they tell me that the temperature difference between May 2006 and May 2007 is slight. Last year, the average temperature in May for games was 70.1 degrees Fahrenheit (with or without dome stadiums). This year, it's 69.9 degrees Fahrenheit. That doesn't seem like much of a difference to me. The weather looked like a good reason in April for the decline. It's looking like less of a good reason in May.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:33 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
May 23, 2007
Swing at Anything
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Seth Kolloen blasts the Mariners for becoming less selective at the plate, despite the coaching staff trying to turn them around:

OK, so the Mariners aren't patient. So what? Sure, they've got the fewest walks in the major leagues, but they also have the fewest strikeouts. The team batting average is .269! What's the problem?

Here's the problem: Patience isn't just about earning walks, it's about driving up the pitch counts of opposing starters, seeing them off to the showers, and pummeling the squishy belly of every team's pitching staff -- the middle relief.

The Mariners have knocked out a starter before the seventh inning only 11 times this season. That's the worst in the American League -- the Red Sox and Indians have done it 24 times each. Those teams score more runs not necessarily because they have better hitters, but because they are facing less talented pitchers.

I'll just add that if you can lay off balls out of the strike zone, you're more likely to get pitches in the strike zone you can crush. Seth lays the blame at the feet of the GM, since he's the one who acquired this type of player. The whole article is well worth the read.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:54 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
May 17, 2007
No Offense Thursday
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As of 1:41 PM EDT, there have been 32 half innings played. The eight teams in action have combined for 14 hits and one run.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:41 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
May 13, 2007
Low Runs
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Offense is 2007 continues to lag behind offense in 2006. Over the last week, the gap started to widen again. Right now, total runs per game is about 0.7 runs lower than through he same point last year. Here's a graph of each individual day over the two seasons (click on graph for a full size view):

RunsPerGamebyDay.JPG

As you can see, most of the difference resulted from low scoring early in the season, giving credence to the weather explanation. At the end of April (around Day 27) things start to even out, and 2007 looks a lot like 2006. But lately scoring diverged again. The weather's been nice in the northeast lately, but I know a lot of rain fell on other parts of the country. Unfortunately, I don't have weather data, so I'll leave that to other researchers.

Note, also, that in 2006 up to this point there were twelve days in which the league averaged eleven runs per game or better, and only one this season. In contrast, six games in 2007 fell at or below seven runs per game, while there was just one in 2006.

Also note that early in the season you can pick out the days the #1 starters pitched, and the days the #5 starters pitched. After two weeks, these get jumbled enough that the volatility in runs per game goes down. Which is another reason the recent week of 2007 is interesting, the volatility went back up.

I'm not totally convinced the weather is the only factor at work here. The weather is improving, but runs per game are starting to get worse again. The current blip down is too short a time frame to be meaningful, but it bears watching.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:02 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
May 07, 2007
K-Fish
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Another example of why strikeouts don't seem to matter that much to an offense.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:29 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
May 06, 2007
Power Spectrum
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J.J. Hardy picked up two hits last night, including his eighth home run. That raised his slugging percentage to .610, best when hitting as a shortstop. He's not the only shortstop off to a big power surge to start 2007. Seven major league shortstops are slugging above .500 right now. There are a number of reasons this is remarkable:

  • Shortstops are supposed to be known for their defense. Of the seven fielder behind the pitcher, shortstop requires the most defensive skill and the least offensive skill.
  • Runs and power are down this year. Offense is down .5 runs per game from the same time last season, and home runs are down .4 per game. Yet, shortstops are thriving.
  • This is a whole new crop of shortstops doing well. If you look at these stats through May 5, 2006, you see a number of veterans near the top. The first five on this year's list are not rookies, but they're not who we think of as power hitting shortstops.
  • The top five are all in the National League. Last decade, it was the AL that developed the great shortstops. That advantage now switches to the NL.

Whom do you pick on your all-star ballot?

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:07 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
May 05, 2007
Cardinals and Contact
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In the discussion about the White Sox hitters this morning, the Cardinals turned out to be the second worst team in batting average when not striking out. They're doing a good job this afternoon of demonstrating why. Through five innings against Albers, they've only struck out twice, but in their other 15 at bats, they've garnered just two hits. The Cardinals trail Houston 9-0 in the top of the sixth. Houston picked up eleven hits in twenty one at bats in which they didn't strike out.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:50 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 02, 2007
Low Scoring Afternoon
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The Dodgers just finished their game with the Diamondbacks, winning 2-1. That completes the afternoon schedule (you had me at hello), and the six game saw a total of 34 runs, 5.67 per game. The weather seems pretty nice right now, and we're still 0.5 runs behind last season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:01 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 23, 2007
Peak Players
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Sabernomics points to a couple of studies that show hitters peak closer to 29 than 27. That's very interesting. When I first read Bill James and his research that players peaked at 27, it made sense to me. A few years earlier, a crew coach told me that oarsmen peaked at 27. I figured at that point, athletic peak was athletic peak. But it appears Bill's study was biased by the era of ballplayer he chose. Time to readjust my thinking.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:59 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Let Them Bat!
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The Diamondbacks pitchers are hitting for a higher batting average than the Diamondbacks pinch hitters. Pitchers are 7/40, a .175 BA, while pinch hitters went 6/37, .162. It should be noted that batters in a pinch drew two walks and were hit by a pitch, giving them a better OBA. They've also produced a double versus no extra-base hits for the pitchers. Still, there's not much of a difference there. With Livan Hernandez 3 for 9, you might as well let him bat for himself.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:26 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Top of the Order Division
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Four of the five NL East teams do a fantastic job of setting the table:

Best 1-2 OBA, NL Teams, 2007
Team1-2 OBA
Mets.404
Braves.393
Marlins.383
Phillies.375
Reds.375

Reyes and Rollins each discovered their inner selectivity this year. Jose's OBA is over 100 points better than his career average, while Rollins is up over 40. All these teams are giving their power hitting hearts plenty of RBI opportunities. NY, Florida and Atlanta are in the top five in the NL in runs per game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:07 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 21, 2007
Wisdom from the Hawk
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Ken Harrelson said something very interesting while watching Crede face Zumaya. Joel is hitting 100 on the gun, and Crede just takes a pitch down the middle. Hawk says that when someone is throwing that fast, it's good to take a pitch like that all the way, not moving your head. He explained that this makes the pitch look slower; it lets the batter time the fastball. Crede then singled in the tying run.

I've never heard about this approach to a hard thrower before. Does anyone care to comment?

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:06 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
April 16, 2007
Offense Still Low
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Offense is still down vs. last year, but the gap narrowed a bit over the weekend. Note that MLB is way behind in games played due to all the bad weather:

Offense through first two weeks of the season.
Category20062007
Games182169
Runs18541430
R/G10.28.5
Home Runs452288
HR/G2.51.7

Here's a list of slugging percentage trailers. Look at the number of big names in the bottom 40. Gary Sheffield, Manny Ramirez, Mark Teixeira, Ryan Zimmerman, Carlos Delgado, Lance Berkman, Frank Thomas and Ken Griffey all make an appearance. And if you keep going, you see more big names that are slugging under .400. I would expect most of the people listed above to end up with pretty good seasons. What we may be seeing is simply a collective slump by some of the big guns.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:52 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
April 15, 2007
Sizemore Scoring
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Grady Sizemore doubles and scores in the first inning to put the Indians on top 1-0. The hit raises his OBA to .500, and give Grady 11 runs in 9 games. In the last 50 years, only one player posted a season with more runs scored than games played (at least 100 games played), Rickey Henderson in 1985. Right now four other players also have more runs scored than games played, but given their places at the top of the order, Reyes, Rollins and Sizemore are the most likely to make a run at this. (The other two are A-Rod and Abreu.) Sizemore's better career OBA, however, may mean he's the most likely among those three.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:25 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 13, 2007
Is Age the Problem?
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Earlier today I noted the falloff in offense. I've been wondering if age has anything to do with it. In 2005, batting age was at the highest level since World War II. After a couple of years going down, it's jumped again. Age is measured as average age per plate appearance. So it matters who you play, not who is on the roster (click on the chart for a larger image).

AgePerPA04132007.JPG

The average batting age in 2007 is 29.6 years. So the average hitter is playing past his peak. It may not be a huge factor, but it's something else to consider when evaluating what's going on.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:41 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Offensive Falloff
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Runs per game are way down this season over the previous year. So far it's huge:

Offense through second Thursday of the season.
Category20062007
Games137132
Runs14751080
R/G10.88.2
Home Runs359219
HR/G2.61.7

Some attribute this to the cold weather, but the problem with that is runs are down in lots of ballparks where the weather is nice. While the biggest drop is at PNC in Pittsburgh, where the weather was brutal, Anaheim, Minnesota, Oakland, Toronto, Arizona, Atlanta, Miami, Houston, Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego all saw big declines. I'm still blaming small sample sizes, but the weather isn't anywhere near the whole reason.

Update: I wonder if the climate controlled balls are making the difference?

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:11 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
April 08, 2007
Taking Rangers
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Evan Grant notices the selectivity of the Rangers hitters:

The game-time temperature was 38 degrees, the coldest in the park's 13-plus seasons, and it only turned colder as the night wore on. Had the Rangers not eventually lashed out 14 hits, you might have suspected they weren't swinging for fear of stinging their hands.

Not so. The Rangers were simply following the pattern that has made Oakland so successful. They took no swing before it was time.

"The more pitches we see, the better we become," Washington said. "We start seeing pitches better and getting better pitches to hit, and we start hitting them."

Just like with the A's, it often looked like they were wasting opportunities. Maybe so; they did leave 12 brave men stranded to fend for themselves in the hypothermic conditions. But they also created enough chances to make those wasted opportunities simply look as if they were setting up the Boston pitching staff.

So far, they're drawing a good number of walks, making their OBA 100 points higher than their team batting average. They just need to raise their batting average from a Mendoza like .203.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:39 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The On Base Brothers
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Marcus and Brian Giles reached base six times in nine plate appearances against Colorado last night. Because of them, the 1-2 slots in the San Diego lineup combined for a .444 OBA so far in 2007, the best in the National League. Here's the top five for the major leagues:

Team1-2 OBA
Indians.567
Tigers.459
Padres.444
White Sox.441
Reds.432

(I'm somewhat surprised the White Sox are there with Podsednik and Erstad at the top of the order.)

The strange thing, however, is that while they're getting on, they're not scoring. The two combined for six runs so far. Overall, San Diego is hitting fine with men on base and runners in scoring position, but they've gotten little production out of the four and five holes. So if the number three hitter doesn't drive them in, they remain ducks on the pond.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:15 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 03, 2007
Bradbury in the Times
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J.C. Bradbury publishes an opinion piece in the New York Times on how expansion caused the offensive boom of the last decade plus. My comments on the original blog post are here. There's a lot of reason for the spike in offense. Expansion, homer friendly parks and new training regimens would have gotten us most of the way there without PEDs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:27 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
March 27, 2007
I-Lead
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Jim Leyland named Ivan Rodriguez the Tigers leadoff man vs. lefties.

"I'll hit anywhere I am in the lineup. It doesn't matter," said Rodriguez, a career .304 hitter. "I don't care where I hit, as long as I'm in the lineup every day."

I always wonder why players complain about where they hit in the batting order. It seems to me the approach should be the same wherever one bats, get on base. This actually looks like a good move, as over the last seven seasons I-Rod posted a .390 OBA vs. left handers. And, because he won't be leading off every day, there will be less wear and tear on his body, especially in home games.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:06 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
March 26, 2007
Highs and Lows
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Paul Sullivan discusses the problems the Cubs face moving from Arizona to Chicago, and the chilling effects on hitting.

So while Cubs hitters have looked relatively sharp this spring, the turn of the calendar from March to April can lead to a sudden change of direction.

Ramirez wasn't the only Cubs hitter who struggled last April, when the Cubs ranked 11th in the National League with a .256 average. Jacque Jones and Juan Pierre also started slowly. Though all three finished with decent numbers, the Cubs fell 8- games out of first by May 13.

While Sullivan is most concerned about the weather, there is also the elevation effect. Phoenix is 1100 feet above sea level, Chicago, 580 feet. The higher you go, the better the ball travels.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:35 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
March 25, 2007
Worried About the Offense
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Joe Strauss notes the Cardinals lack of hitting this spring. Part of it is the weather:

La Russa has been grading on a curve because of the wind blowing into Roger Dean Stadium.

"If the wind blows like this during the regular season, the National League leader will have a dozen home runs," La Russa said.

But there's more to it as well:

Kennedy is representative of a trend this spring. He is one of five projected opening day starters who have missed games because of injury. Shortstop David Eckstein, center fielder Jim Edmonds, right fielder Juan Encarnacion and most recently catcher Yadier Molina are the others. Edmonds is scheduled to play his first game Sunday. Encarnacion may not play in Florida before opening the season on the disabled list with lingering weakness in his left wrist.

A strained muscle in his side kept Kennedy out of the spring lineup until March 10. Since then, he has hit .172 in 29 at-bats.

For years the Cardinals wrote three superb offensive players into the middle of their lineup, so they were able to fill in the gaps with older players. But now, 2/3 of that heart of the order isn't quite as fearsome, so the older players filling St. Louis hired might not be enough. Young offensive talent produced by the St. Louis system since Pujols' premier is close to zero. That lack of production may catch up with the Cardinals this season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:47 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
March 23, 2007
Week Leader
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I'm on the road today working from my phone so I can't link, but go to jsonline.com and read the Rickey Weeks story. It's a good example of a misconception about leadoff hitters. It's good for them to be aggressive on a 2-0 court. There job is to get on base. If they take pitches, all the better, but that's not the main part of the job.

Update: I'm home, and here's the link.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:13 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
March 21, 2007
Dunn Slappin'
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Adam Dunn is using Ichiro as a role model.

"This is how I'm going to beat that overshift they put on me during the season," said Dunn.

He ripped a ball through shortstop.

"Nice," said coach Billy Hatcher, another intent observer.

"And this is how I'm going to be Ichiro," said Dunn, promptly lining a ball up the middle."

"Nice," Hatcher said again.

Dunn is hitting .429 with three homers, a double and 11 singles this spring, including a home run Monday off Detroit left-hander Kenny Rogers during Cincinnati's 6-2 defeat.

"I'm going to be Ichiro (Seattle superstar Ichiro Suzuki)," said Dunn. "I'm going to have 216 hits, 177 of them singles, six homers and steal 77 bags."

An exaggeration, of course, but general manager Wayne Krivsky loves Dunn's spring forward approach.

"I love seeing those singles and the ball going to all fields," he said. "He's positive about it, too. I hope he stays positive because sometimes he is his own toughest critic."

Redleg Nation doesn't like the idea.

I don't know whether to laugh hysterically at this article, or to weep. Adam Dunn says he wants to start hitting just like Ichiro, and Reds management acts like that is exactly what they want.

Redleg Nation is being a bit too pessimistic here. Dunn faded badly at the end of 2006. Who's to say he didn't get into bad habits? If he's trying to do a better job of meeting the ball, that's great. Given his good eye for the strike zone and his strength, doing a better job of making contact would lead to very good results. As long as he's not trying to hit pitches in the dirt, I don't have a big problem with this approach. It seems more like a training exercise than a totally different philosophy.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:40 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
February 26, 2007
Under Pressure
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John Hawks reviews some research on choking. This last bit reminded me of A-Rod:

Well, anyway, it seems clear that people really don't think as well under pressure, which is its own kind of distractor. And those little questions that give rise to self-doubt are some of the most powerful distractors, because they interfere with the process they reference.
Posted by StatsGuru at 03:28 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 22, 2007
Long Battles
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Nice research over at the Detroit Tigers Weblog on long battles between batters and pitchers after the count reaches two strikes. Long battles improve the chance of the batter reaching base. Of course, there could be selection bias here. Batters who can foul off or take pitches with two strikes are just better hitters.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:06 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
February 09, 2007
Schmidt and Strikeouts
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Mike Schmidt takes aim at Pat Burrell and Adam Dunn over their strikeouts. He also criticizes himself:

"I don't know Adam Dunn, but from watching I'd say I don't know that a strikeout is as much a slap in the face as it was when I played," said Schmidt, the keynote speaker at Thursday morning's Leadership Breakfast at the Mandalay Banquet Center. "Or maybe I shouldn't have despised the strikeout as much as I did. You get three swats at a guy and there is no reason to strike out as much as I did.

"Now I know that if I had choked up on the bat with two strikes and hadn't been so aggressive and gave in to the pitcher, I wouldn't have struck out so much. And that's what guys like Dunn and Burrell have to realize," Schmidt added.

Schmidt said that with a game on the line pitchers don't mind facing guys like Dunn and Burrell because they know they can strike them out.

"How do I know this? Because when I played pitchers wanted me up there with the game on the line," he said. "They'd rather face me than a guy behind me like Greg Luzinski, who would put the ball in play.

"I look at Dunn and Burrell and I go, 'My God, if these guys cut their strikeouts down to 75 or 80, they put the ball in play 85 or 90 more times a year. That's at least 15 more home runs a year and at least 35 more RBIs a year.' "

We know that putting the ball in play gives a player a decent chance of reaching base. If Dunn followed Schmidt's advice and cut his strikeouts by 100 per season, he would be looking at 30 extra times on base. However, I do disagree with this:

What they are doing now is not great, it is mediocrity."

Over the last three seasons, Dunn posted win shares of 29, 25 and 18. Burrell posted 14, 24, 15. That's not mediocre. The fear for the two is that as they age, and they can't swing as hard, the ability to overcome the lack of contact decreases. So as their strength decline Schmidt's advice might keep them in the majors longer.

Balls, Sticks and Stuff looks at this graphically, and indeed as Schmidt aged, he put the ball in play more.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:42 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
February 06, 2007
Outfield Worries
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Balls, Sticks and Stuff worries a bit about the Phillies outfield offense:

The first thing that your eye is drawn to is just how much the offense is going to depend on Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. The second thing you notice is how much below the league average Victorino is in right field. There's no doubt he'll get to more balls hit to right field than the average right fielder, but we shouldn't fool ourselves into thinking it is going to come close to making up for the deficit in offense.

Probably the third thing you noticed was that Pat Burrell is projected to basically put up a league average OPS for a left fielder. I'm not sure I buy that, so I looked at several other projection systems and most place Burrell's OPS between .860 and .870, which gets above league average, but is still way down from the .891 OPS he has put up over the last two years. One has to believe that there is some sort of wrinkle in the systems that marks Burrell lower than they should and that his past performance is more indicative of his future performance.

It's Pat's age. At 30, he's going to be downgraded as he's more likely to decline that improve at this point.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:41 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
November 14, 2006
The Manufacturers
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Balls, Sticks and Stuff looks compares overall run scoring to Bill James Manufactured Runs (MR) measure in The Bill James Handbook 2007.

As it turns out, there is a moderate inverse correlation between the percentage of runs a team scores by "manufacturing" and the number of runs the team scores overall. There was a slight difference among leagues: the correlation across all of baseball was -0.573, -0.633 in the American League, and -0.502 in the National League.

Naturally, caveats apply. One seasons worth of numbers is a very low sample size, and of course, say it with me, correlation is not causation. But it appears that in general, teams that relied on grinding and manufacturing runs in 2006 tended, in general, to score less runs. Generally speaking.

This makes perfect sense. Teams tend to use one-run strategies when their offense isn't that good (see the comment on Ozzie Guillen here). But also, James counts two types of MRs. Type ones are runs that are intentionally manufactured; they results from steals and bunts, for example. Type II result from less direct means, like having a batter single, moving him up with two ground outs and scoring on a wild pitch. And teams that score like that often aren't good offenses, as their productive outs don't eat away at the team's OBA.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:51 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 07, 2006
The Essence of Comedy
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Shawn Green took some advice to help him hit those two home runs yesterday:

Shawn Green was in the batting cage in Houston last week trying to find the power stroke he used to hit 192 home runs between 1998 and 2002, when teammates Carlos Delgado and Julio Franco and Mets hitting coach Rick Down approached him with some strange advice - start tapping his toes.

No, Delgado, Franco and Down weren't recommending some magical dance that would transform Green into the power hitter he once was. Instead, they all thought the toe tap would help Green get his timing down.

And as quickly as Green could say, "Fred Astaire," he turned into the hitter he once was - at least for now.

Not only have the Mets put together a very talented team, they appear to be very well coached.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:33 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 27, 2006
Setters and Cleaners
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Johnny Damon and Derek Jeter accounted for the first two runs of the Yankees/Angels game as Damon doubled and Jeter homered in the top of the first. The Yankees 1-2 hitters have now scored 206 runs, the most by any AL team (the Phillies have 214 runs from the top of their order). They've also driven in 161 runs, the most in the majors. So not only do they do great job of setting up the heart of the order, they also drive in the bottom of the order as well.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:19 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
August 04, 2006
Driving In Runs
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Timothy Moreland take RBI Percentage to the next level.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:45 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Driving In Runs
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Timothy Moreland take RBI Percentage to the next level.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:45 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
June 28, 2006
Mauer Mania
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Joe Mauer went 2 for 3 today to raise his batting average to .392. People are asking can a catcher win a batting title. Maybe we should be asking if a catcher can hit .400.

One advantage Mauer will have in going for .400 is that as a catcher, he gets days off. This lowers his number of plate appearances, making it easier for him to get lucky and hit .400. It's easier to hit .400 in 500 at bats than in 600. There's a 1.1% chance of a .350 hitter achieveing a .400 batting average in 500 at bats, a 0.6% chance of it happening in 600 at bats.

The Twins win again, defeating the Dodgers 6-3. Santana threw up seven shutout innings, allowing two hits and striking out nine. Liriano and Santana are turning into quite a 1-2 punch.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:17 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
June 20, 2006
Quadruple Double
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Mark Teixeira hit his 24th double of the year tonight and came around to score to give Texas an early 1-0 lead. The double belongs to the Texas offense this year as Mathews and Young are tied for second with 25, Teixeira is fourth with 24 and DeRosa is 5th with 21.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:37 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 18, 2006
Depending on Your Pitchers
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The Indians scored six runs in their first two games against the Brewers. Half of those runs were driven in by the starting pitchers, Sabathia and Westbrook.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:45 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 17, 2006
The Three Quarter Cycle
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The single, double, home run combination appears to be popular tonight. As mentioned in the previous post, Ibanez put that together for Seattle. Mike Jacobs helped the Marlins to their seventh straight win with that combination, as the Blue Jays go down 8-2. The Marlins are just percentage points behind Atlanta in the NL East, both 13 games out. Carlos Guillen also had the trifecta for Detroit as the Tigers beat the Cubs 9-3. Palonco and Ordonez also picked up three hits in that game.

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays kept the Phillies on their losing streak as Rocco Baldelli drove in and scored two with his single, double and homer. The Devil Rays picked up as many extra-base hits (6) as the Phillies total of hits. Scott Kazmir pushed his record to 8-4 with nine strikeouts in five innings.

Johnny Damon was the only player with the three way combo today whose team lost. Maybe it's because he picked up that extra single. :-)

Special mention to Juan Encarnacion who went three for four, but hit a second home run instead of the single. Juan drove in three of the Cardinals six runs as they defeated the Rockies 6-5.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:07 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
They're Gonna Score
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The Baseball Crank looks at the best players in terms of scoring once they reach base. He wanted to see how Jose Reyes ranked. He's good, but not top ten.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:45 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 01, 2006

The Diamondbacks finally score. After 24 straight scoreless innings, the Arizona offense puts two runs on the board against in the 8th against Atlanta. They did have some help from the Atlanta defense, but Shawn Green came through with a two-out, two-run single. Like last night, their pitching's been great, as Cruz shutout the Braves through seven innings. Brandon Lyon is on to try to preserve the two run lead.

Update: Lyon pitches a scoreless inning. Julio gives up a leadoff home run to Andruw Jones, but that's it as the Diamondbacks take the 2-1 victory.

Correction: Fixed the final score.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:09 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
May 31, 2006
Pirate Power
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The Pittsburgh Pirates continued their roll last night, pounding the Brewers 12-1. They've scored 57 runs in their last six games. Almost everyone is contributing. What's very encouraging is the youngsters are on a roll. Bay, Castillo, Paulino and Sanchez could form a decent core for this team. Jason showed them how it's done, and the rest are following suit.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:52 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 27, 2006
Low Run Games
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The Cubs scored one run today as they lost to Atlanta 2-1. It was the 15th time this season the Cubs were held to one run or less. That's the most in the majors; Kansas City and Seattle are tied for second with 11 each. The Cubs lost all 15 games (no real suprise there). The Tigers have been held to 1 run or less four times and are 2-2 in those games, the only team with a .500 record in the majors.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:36 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
May 26, 2006
Walking to the Top
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Bobby Abreu won't mind batting leadoff if the Phillies make the request:

"Anything that's better for the team. Anything to win games," Abreu said.

Why the change?

In Abreu's eyes, until this season the Phillies lacked enough RBI production to take his bat out of the middle of the lineup. He has averaged just over 100 RBI the last five seasons. His bat made him an All-Star the past two seasons.

However, with Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Pat Burrell and Aaron Rowand lined up behind him, Abreu considers the Phillies potent enough now.

"It's different," he said. "Now, we've got guys who can drive in runs."

It's the right move. Rollins at .304 is just making too many out in front of the good hitters. Abreu's slugging percentage is the lowest among the sluggers on the team, making him better in front that behind that group. The Lineup Analysis tool agrees that Abreu should be at the top as well.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:18 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
May 14, 2006
Heat and Offense
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Daniel Medina sends a link to this article by Alan Schwarz on how the weather was responsible for the offensive surge in April:

The numbers bear this out. Merging data provided by Stats LLC and Weather Source, a provider of historical and real-time weather information based in Amesbury, Mass., Mark Gibbas of Weather Source found what he called a "meaningful and possibly substantial" correlation between heat index — an amalgam of temperature, humidity and other factors — and home runs. The April 2000 surge, he found, was at least partly caused by a 56.2 heat index that ranked sixth among the 34 years studied. Hot and cool Aprils tended to correlate with high and low offense.

This was the warmest April since records started being kept in 1895. Good work here. If you chart offense by month over time, you see the warmest months tend to have the best averages:

MonthBAOBASlugOPS
30.2530.3320.4110.743
40.2630.3360.4240.760
50.2640.3340.4230.757
60.2680.3370.4320.769
70.2670.3340.4280.762
80.2660.3340.4250.759
90.2620.3330.4170.750
100.2590.3230.4180.741

This data is from 2000 on, and contains two hot Aprils. I really like the way the article ends:

"People want a definite answer and to be able to say, 'This is it,' " said Mets reliever Aaron Heilman, who graduated from Notre Dame with a degree in management information systems and reads books on mathematics and philosophy. "But there are a lot of intangibles that they can't see. Most of the time, things have to do with a lot of factors. You can't pinpoint just one."

For those who must, the best is probably April's sultry weather. In the end, all the conspiracy talk might indeed have been a lot of hot air.

It usually is.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:07 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Five and Five
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Bleed Cubbie Blue, in a very humorous column on the Cubs loss today, asks if there's been a game with one batter with five walks and one with five strikeouts before. The Day by Day Database goes back to 1974, and I only found one instance. It happened on May 23, 1987. The Cubs beat the Braves 7-6 that day in 16 innings. Dale Murphy walked five times for the Braves, and Ozzie Virgil, the Braves catcher, struck out five times. I found no examples in nine inning games.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:14 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 08, 2006
High Variance Home Runs
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Sabernomics looks at the causes of the home run boom of the last decade plus and makes a good case that it's the distribution of talent among pitchers due to expansion that's the likely cause. I love this post, because it confirms something I wrote after the 1993 season. In The STATS Baseball Scoreboard 1994, page 90 there is an article titled What Does Expansion Affect More: Pitching or Hitting? Here's a scan from the book. The scan is Copyright 2006 STATS LLC, reprinted with permission.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:15 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
May 07, 2006
Disappearing Runs
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The western evening games offered a scarcity of runs last night. The highest scoring game took place in Los Angeles where the Dodgers edged out the Brewers 5-4. Baez blew the save but picked up the win when Lofton doubled in the bottom of the ninth and Garciaparra singeld him home.

The Mariners and Indians combined for five runs as Joel Pineiro allowed a leadoff home run to Grady Sizemore, and then nothing for eight innings as Seattle takes a 4-1 victory. Pineiro threw exactly 100 pitches, 69 for strikes as he gave up four hits while striking out six.

Cincinnati played at Arizona, and those team managed to score four runs. The Diamondback stay hot and tied for first with Colorado. Bronson Arroyo took his first loss, although he deserved to give up more than three runs. Batters went 11 for 27 against Bronson last night, but he only walked one batter and most of the power came with the bases empty. In fact, 6 of the 11 hits were with no one on. The final score was 3-1 Arizona.

The Cubs offense continues to flail. In their last eight games, Chicago has seen four shutouts thrown against them, and hasn't scored more than two runs in a game for a total of six runs. Last night, Sean Marshall pitched brilliantly for six innings, not allowing a hit or run until the sixth. But that run total matched Peavy's for the night, and the San Diego bullpen proved tougher, pitching four scoreless innings before backup catcher Rob Bowen hit the second home run of his career leading off the tenth to win the game 2-1 for San Diego. The Cubs are scoring 2.6 runs per game since they lost Derrek Lee to an injury.

Overall, offense in the majors is declining as the season progresses. The following chart shows runs per game by day, with a trend line (linear regression) showing how runs are headed down. Is it injuries to key players? Bad starts by big names? The lack of amphetamines taking it's toll? Just plain better pitching? Coors Field playing like the Astrodome? Bad weather lately? I'd love to hear your ideas. (Click chart for a larger view.)

RunPGDay_14566_image001.gif

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:43 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
April 26, 2006
Pad-Ks
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Through five innings, Orlando Hernandez has whiffed nine Padres. A big difference between San Diego this year and last is their level of strikeouts. In 2005 the Padres batters struck out the fifth fewest times in the NL. Coming into today, they saw strike three the six most in the league. Arizona leads 2-1 in the middle of the sixth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:16 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
April 19, 2006
Park Flip
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Matt Holliday singled in the winning run in the 11th inning last night at Coors, giving the Rockies a 3-2 victory over the San Diego Padres.

Park Indexes give us a measure of how much different stadiums help or hurt various statistics. It's basically the playing time adjusted ratio of home/road numbers. A score of 100 indicated a neutral park. A score below 100 indicates a park that hurts the stat, above 100 helps.

Right now, the Coors run index is 78.1, fourth lowest in the majors, while PETCO sits at 135.1, fourth highest. These two parks are usually at the opposite ends of runs scored, with Coors extremely high and PETCO extremely low. It continues to be a strange offensive year.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:24 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
April 17, 2006
Cranking the Ball
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Baseball Minutia takes on claims of a juiced ball by looking at how previous changes in the ball affected offense.

Hat tip Red Reporter.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:37 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 14, 2006
Offense Still Up
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Comparing the same time period and using the first six years of this century, offense remains high by comparison.

YearRuns per GameHR per Game
20019.92.47
20029.12.02
20039.72.10
200410.22.22
20059.72.00
200610.82.62

Also, comapre the home run leader board this year vs. 2005. Nineteen players with four or more homers this season vs. seven last year. And the league leader had five.

So what's different? One person in the comments this year suggests the umpires are calling a very small strike zone. However, strikeouts are very much in line with previous years, so I'm not sure that's the explanation (I'd expect strikeouts to be down if the strike zone were smaller). Still, it's something to watch.

I've never bought the intentional juiced ball theory. It's possible Rawlings changed the manufacturing process, but I really don't think the commissioner makes a call and the balls start flying out of the park.

Of course, it might be that steroids helped pitchers more than batters. Sure there were some sluggers who bulked up, but a number of the players caught last year spent their time on the mound. Maybe we've been looking at the whole scandal the wrong way. Instead of the sluggers keeping up with each other, the real abusers were pitchers trying to keep up with hitters.

Or maybe it's just Atlanta's pitching staff falling apart.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:24 AM | Comments (16) | TrackBack (0)
April 11, 2006
How to Get Out of a Slump
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A photo essay hosted by Batgirl.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:36 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 10, 2006
Successful Thieves
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Are teams finally realizing the value of a stolen base in relation to the caught stealing? The rule of thumb going back to the hidden game of baseball is that teams needed to swipe successfully two-thirds of the time just to break even in terms of runs. The percentage goes up as runs become more plentiful.

There's a misconception that sabermetricians don't like the stolen base. What they hate is the caught stealing, and too many teams take an undue risk running. So far in 2006, however, that's not the case. Runners are stealing at a 75% clip (77 steals in 102 attempts). Twenty three of the thirty teams are above the 66.7% break even point. The Reds ran the best, with Freel and Lopez combining to make the team 7-0. The Cardinals ran the most, swiping seven in nine tries. And in an effort to show just how little stolen bases do matter, Detroit scored big while stealing just one base in five attempts.

The only team not to attempt a steal was the Pittsburgh Pirates. Maybe a little of DePodesta's logic rubbed off on Tracy after all.

AbbrSBCSSBPct
CIN70100
MIN40100
BAL30100
KC30100
SF30100
TOR20100
ATL20100
LAD20100
PHI20100
SD20100
CLE10100
TEX10100
CHN10100
NYN6185.714
STL7277.778
SEA6275
LAA3175
CHA3175
NYA3175
FLA3175
BOS2166.667
OAK2166.667
MIL2166.667
WSH3260
COL1150
TB1233.333
HOU1325
DET1420
ARI010
PIT00--
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:33 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 09, 2006
Bizzaro Rockies
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I just love the home/road split for the Colorado Rockies batters right now. I now it won't last, but no offense at Coors, then exploding at PETCO for five home runs in two games is a low probablility event worth noting.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:45 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 07, 2006
All Cylinders
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The Seattle Mariners are off to a 3-1 start, and their offense is carrying the team. They're scoring 6.5 runs per game. They're hitting for a high average, posting a high OBA, and slugging over .500. Part of this is they're not striking out much, just 22 in four games, or 5.5 per game. Lower strikeouts mean more balls in play, more balls in play mean more hits.

Note, too, that they appear to be agressive on the bases with 3 triples already. The most triples any team's had in the last 30 years was 79 by the 1979 KC Royals. U.S.S. Mariner discusses that here.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:01 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
March 23, 2006
The Fusion of Fuson
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Ducksnorts offers an insightful commentary on the methods of Grady Fuson in teaching hitters to be "patiently aggressive."

Baseball Musings is conducting a pledge drive in March. Click here for details.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:55 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
March 21, 2006
Kicking in Early
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Eric Chavez has a "Why didn't I think of that!" moment, thanks to new hitting coach Gerald Perry:

Now, Perry is focused solely on hitting, and the A's hitters are having a good spring. Third baseman Eric Chavez and second baseman Mark Ellis are especially locked in, with Chavez hitting .379 with five homers and Ellis .381 with four homers.

Chavez and Ellis like the way Perry communicates. He doesn't hesitate to say what he thinks (he jumped all over one player for not showing up for early hitting) and he asks lots of questions. When Chavez told him, for instance, that he doesn't usually incorporate his leg kick into his swing until the seasons starts, and he usually gets off to slow starts, Perry said, 'Why don't you put the leg kick in now?' A simple thought, but one that hadn't been raised before.

Baseball Musings is holding a pledge drive during March. Click here for details.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:46 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
March 09, 2006
Pirates and Plate Discipline
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Jeff Basset donated $50 and sends the following dedication:

To Jessica, Caitlin, Rachael, Marissa, Molly, Glynis and The Redoubtable Kirbydog.

Dodger Thoughts notes that Jim Tracy is preaching plate discipline in Pittsburgh. I doubt it will work. Lloyd McClendon did the same thing last year.

It seems you can preach this all you want, but it's very difficult to change a player. Sammy Sosa did it, but there aren't many others.

Baseball Musings is conducting a pledge drive in March. Click here for details.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:52 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 06, 2006
Run for the Slugger
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Balls, Sticks and Stuff looks at the affect Abreu stealing had on Jim Thome:

For example, from 2003 to 2005, Jim Thome had an OPS of .929, but in the 93 instances when Abreu was on second with first base open, Thome had an OPS of .954. Burrell benefited even more, his OPS increasing from .810 to 1.008 and his batting average from .249 to .291 in 104 instances.

Thome's increase in OPS, however, was mainly due to a large increase in on-base percentage (from .386 to .462) while his slugging percentage decreased (as did his batting average from .261 overall to .206 in our scenario). So in that regard, Abreu's tendency to run may have indeed taken the bat out of Thome's hands, but it looks like Burrell was able to come through, and not just with one on base, but often with two, since Thome was often walked.

Walking a slugger with first base open isn't a bad thing. It increases the run potential for the inning, and extends the offense for future innings (the top of the lineup is more likely to bat again). In the Phillies case, with two sluggers coming up next, it's tough to pitch around both.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:03 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
January 18, 2006
Charting Pitches
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David Appleman at The Hardball Times puts Baseball Info Solutions pitch charting to good use. He creates graphs telling us where balls are put into play for hits, and compares Albert Pujols' plate coverage to Corey Patterson. Let's hope he publishes these for every MLB player.

Update: It's interesting to note that batters have better luck on pitches above the strikezone than with pitches to the left or the right. That makes me think that the old strike zone was indeed the correct strike zone, and batters shouldn't complain about the high strike. It's a hittable pitch.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:52 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
January 16, 2006
Batting Luck
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Jeff at Brew Crew Ball looks at the luckiest hitters by batting average on balls in play and finds that luck does not hold up from year to year.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:32 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
January 08, 2006
Who Gets the Grounders
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I've wondered for a while if pitchers or hitters had more of an effect on balls in play being in the air or on the ground. What if pitchers were the only cause of the ball being lifted in the air or not? Then, we wouldn't expect the probabilities to change no matter what type of batter he was facing. If the batter was responsible, then changing the type of pitcher wouldn't matter.

To study this, I selected a group of pitchers that gathered 400 IP from 2002-2004. There were 101 pitchers in the group, and I divided them into quartiles on the probability of a ground ball. Quartile 1 is the group with the lowest probability of a ground ball, quartile 4 the highest. I also selected batters with 1000 plate appearances in that time frame. There were 243 batters in the study, also divided into quartiles on the same statistic. Here's a table representing the probabilities of the four quartiles.

Probability of a Ground Ball
QuartilePitchersBatters
1.38.35
2.42.41
3.45.45
4.52.50

Next, I pitted each pitcher quartile vs. each batter quartile:

Pitcher Quartiles vs. Batter Quartiles, Probability of a Ground Ball
PitchersBatters
Quartiles 1234
1.31.37.39.44
2.33.40.43.50
3.37.42.46.52
4.44.48.53.60

As you can see, the type of pitcher and the type of batter both matter. So if you really need a ground ball, get your best ground ball pitcher in against a ground ball hitter.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:56 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
December 28, 2005
Leading Off
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I was doing some research for my radio show tonight, and I wanted to see just how good Damon was as a leadoff man. Here's a table of OBA batting in the #1 slot over the last three seasons, minimum of 500 plate appearances:

BatterOBA
Jason Kendall0.386
Derek Jeter0.380
Ryan Freel0.377
Ichiro Suzuki0.373
Brady Clark0.373
Brad Wilkerson0.372
Matt Lawton0.366
David DeJesus0.364
Johnny Damon0.363
Ray Durham0.360
Jerry Hairston Jr.0.358
Chone Figgins0.357
Brian Roberts0.356
Shannon Stewart0.356
Juan Pierre0.355
Grady Sizemore0.353
Eric Young0.353
Craig Counsell0.351
Ronnie Belliard0.349
Kenny Lofton0.349
Michael Young0.349
Rafael Furcal0.348
David Eckstein0.346
Mark Kotsay0.345
Marlon Byrd0.343
Scott Podsednik0.343
Craig Biggio0.342
Reed Johnson0.342
Jimmy Rollins0.341
Sean Burroughs0.340
Dave Roberts0.340
Alfonso Soriano0.335
D'Angelo Jimenez0.333
Felipe Lopez0.327
Alex Sanchez0.325
Carl Crawford0.325
Tony Womack0.321
Willy Taveras0.321
Aaron Miles0.319
Cesar Izturis0.317
Coco Crisp0.312
Jose Reyes0.297
Endy Chavez0.293

What's clear is that Jeter is a much better leadoff hitter than Damon, and I'd bat them Jeter-Damon rather than the other way around. However, from what I can tell, Damon prefers to bat leadoff and Jeter second, so it's likely they'll be happier with the proposed arrangement.

It's continues to shock me that there are no great leadoff men anymore. There should be two or three players capable of generating a .400 OBA from the leadoff slot. No wonder Rickey Henderson believes he can still play in the majors. The best leadoff man in terms of getting on base is a catcher!

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:14 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack (0)
December 12, 2005
Seeing Better
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SawxBlog links to a scientific study of the effect of Laser Refractive Surgery on offense. Bottom line, it doesn't help has much as you might think.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:30 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
September 20, 2005
Leaving Men On
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Alex Belth at Bronx Banter shows that Yankees fans are correct, the Yankees are leaving a lot of runners on base. One of his commenter's presents a chart that shows the Yankees are rather inefficient in bringing runners home.

In general, I'm not a big fan of the left on base number. You need to couple it with total runs scored to get a good feel for what it means. If you're not scoring a lot of runs but leaving tons of ducks on the pond, then you have an offensive problem. However, it's a good problem, since the team likely has a high OBA, and eventually those runners will come around to score.

This is what happened in Boston last season. The sports talk hosts were complaining about all the runners left on, then in the second half of the season they started coming around to score. I'd much rather have that situation than few runners on/few left on base. In that case, you don't have much potential to score runs.

If, like the Yankees, you are a high scoring team, leaving lots of men on base really isn't a problem. Just as it doesn't matter how you get on base, it doesn't matter how you score your runs. It's nice to be efficient, but leaving two on to score one is fine as long as you do it often enough.

The Yankees problem this year isn't leaving lots of men on base; it's needing to score a lot of runs to win games due to the pitching and defense.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:06 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
September 19, 2005
Lead Off Low
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The Baseball Crank explores an issue that's been bothering me for a while, where are the good lead off men? It seems the players with great OBAs today are also sluggers, making it difficult to find a player who fits the high OBA/low power profile of the table setter. That's still no excuse for batting someone with an OBA below .320 in the #2 slot.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:38 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
September 18, 2005
Top Fish
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Castillo and Conine continue to do a good job at the top of the Marlins order. The pair is four for five with 3 walks tonight, scoring three runs and driving in two. With this lineup, the first four batters in the lineup all have OBA's over .370. They're not only setting up the bottom of the order, they're giving each other more plate appearances.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:22 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 07, 2005
Offense Down
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Bryan Johnson writes:

I (as well as several of my coworkers) noticed that the ball hasn't seemed to be jumping off the bat in the past month or so like it was the last few years.

Has anybody else said anything about this? Is it possible that the Commissioner's office took away the "juiced" baseballs? I don't think this would be a result of players being off of steroids, but I could be wrong. I know this sounds like a huge conspiracy theory or something, but I was wondering what you and possibly others have heard or noticed on this subject.

I noticed a couple of weeks ago that no one had a long hit streak. I used to print out that report every day as part of my stat package for ESPN, and I found that the number of long streaks was in proportion to the amount of offense in the league. But when I looked at runs scored compared to last year, they were still very close.

However, offense is down over the last couple of months and really down in September:

MonthBatting AverageOn-Base AverageSlugging PercentageRuns/Game
April0.2610.3310.4099.1
May0.2630.3290.4189.1
June0.2710.3350.4329.5
July0.2680.3320.4259.2
August0.2630.3260.4159.2
Sept0.2490.3150.3918.2

So yes, both Bryan's perception and the hit streak data were correct, there's been a big fall off in offense lately. As for the cause? Earlier in the year I remember reading a story about players being afraid to take supplements due to the steroid testing. I remember it being Omar Vizquel saying that players were smaller because they had stopped taking the off the shelf products. We might be seeing teams wear down because of that.

There's the possibility that steroids were used not so much to gain strength as to allow a player to go through a full season. If players cut back on use, they also may be wearing out.

But I believe this chart tells us what we need to know. Players are old. Last year was the oldest the majors have been since the end of WWII when baseball brought back everyone who had lost time to fighting. Old players aren't as durable as young players. Even now, teams are bringing up old players from the minors to make their first appearances. Where are the youngsters?

Update: While the players making their debuts this season seem old, it's actually the youngest average debuts we've had in a few years. The average debut age is 24.7 years this season, compared to 24.8 last year, 25.0 in 2003 and 25.3 in 2002. Still, in the late 1970's and early 1980's the debut age was in the high 23's and low 24's. The game is getting older.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:22 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
August 23, 2005
The Way to Build a Lineup
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Everyone in the Red Sox lineup tonight has an on-base average above the AL mean of .331. Nice job by Theo and Terry.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:10 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
July 29, 2005
Taking the O's out of Offense
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The Orioles are down 6-2 to the White Sox in the 8th inning. This has been typical of their 2-10 streak in which they've been outscored 57-37. Three runs a game is just not going to win them the AL East. Sammy Sosa's been the best hitter during the streak. Orioles fans waited all season for Sammy to come to life, and when he does the rest of the team goes into a tailspin.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:28 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
July 24, 2005
The Psychology of Clutch
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Balls, Sticks and Stuff link to an interesting article on what makes a clutch hitter, psychologically that is. I tend to dismiss the "hypnotic susceptibility" portion of the argument since hypnotism is simply a parlor trick. But I'd remind you, some players have to do well in non-clutch situations to set up the clutch situations. So a better clutch hitter isn't necessarily a better ballplayer.

Update: Tom Durso went to the same game as part of a blogger's night at the ballgame. His post is here.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:37 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (1)
July 14, 2005
Royals Rolling
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Prior to last Saturday, July 9, the Royals had a total of two game on the season in which they scored 10 runs or more. Now, for the second time in three games they've scored 12. They set a season high with a dozen run last Saturday vs. the Twins, and have equaled that this evening vs. the Tigers. They're still batting in the top of the 8th, so they may set a season high. Matt Stairs hit two home runs and drove in six so far.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:54 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
June 29, 2005
Utley and Rollins
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At what point do the Phillies swap Rollins and Utley in the order? Rollins, with almost 3000 career at bats, pretty much proved he doesn't get on base much. His career OBA is .324, and this season it's below .320. Utley, finally given a chance to play every day, is posting a .380 OBA. He's 1 for 2 tonight with a walk to raise it to .384. Chase should be batting second behind Michaels. That does a better job of setting up the heart of the order, plus Michaels being on base will make good use of Utley's power.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:49 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Pudge Punched
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Pudge Rodriguez just struck out with the bases loaded and nobody out in a game tied 3-3 in the 8th. He's upset, and he should be. Dmitri Young walked to load the bases. Politte looked wild. So instead of waiting to see if Politte can throw a strike, Ivan goes up swinging at the first pitch. That's one of my big pet peeves. Let the pitcher be wild! Instead, he swings at a pitch in his eyes, then at two more out of the strikezone. Monroe follows with a double play, and a chance to bury the White Sox goes by the board. Bad process, Ivan!

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:23 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 21, 2005
Drowning Fish
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What happened to the Marlins bats?

Update: Sorry this post was wrong. I looked at the wrong team game by game log.

Smoltz's shutout tonight is the third blanking of the Marlins in the last 11 games. They've also scored over 10 runs twice in that period, but more than half of their games in that period resulted in two runs or less.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:40 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 18, 2005
Second to None
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The Rockies are getting plenty of offense from their second basemen this season. With Barmes taking the collar bone break, Eddy Garabito picked up the slack. He was two for five tonight to lower his batting average to .410. When Barmes comes back, the Rockies might want to think about keeping the two of them together in the infield with Garabito at shortstop.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:57 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
June 13, 2005
Closer to Last Year
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Offense is still down from last year, but the gap is closing.

Through 10 weeks20042005
Runs Per Game9.69.2
Home Runs Per Game2.22.0

The smaller gap from April is do to a fall off in last year's numbers, rather than an increase in 2005 offense.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:41 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 07, 2005
Missing Runs
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The Cubs offense is underperforming by about .4 runs per game this season. They've scored 255 runs, but the runs created formula puts them at 279 runs. That's the biggest negative difference in the majors. Why? The big culprit appears to be how they've hit with the bases loaded. The Cubs have been consistent with runners on, bases empty, or with men in scoring position, but with the bases juiced they fall off the table. While they don't have the worst BA in that situation, their lack of power (8 total bases) has led to only 15 RBI in that situation, the lowest in the majors. A few more hits with the bases loaded and they'd be right where they belong in scoring runs. Burnitz is the big culprit, going just 1 for 7 when the Cubs have loaded the bases for him.

As an aside, notice how batting averages for teams with the bases loaded are skewed toward the extremes? It's seems most teams are above .300 or below .220. Not a bell curve at all.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:35 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 27, 2005
Jones for the Top
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Is it time to move Jacque Jones to the top of the lineup? Based on his career stats, he's more of a power hitter than a guy who gets on base, so batting lower in the order would appear to be appropriate. But this season, Jones is drawing walks at a higher rate than usual, but the bottom of the Twins order is not driving him in. Coming into tonight he had only scored 18 runs despite reaching base 61 times by a hit or a walk. With two hits through four innings tonight, he now has a .390 OBA. That might be much better in front of Mauer and Morneau.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:23 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
May 10, 2005
Why is the AL Offense So Bad?
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The Yankees have four players in the lineup tonight with slugging averages lower than their on-base averages. The Mariners have three. The league just isn't hitting for power.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:35 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Home Runs Down
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Jason Rennie sends this article about the drop in home runs, something that Baseball Musings with which Baseball Musings readers are familiar. Does it have to do with steroids? It's higher than the 2002 level, the last year there was no testing. And it's the same as 1998, the year two players broke the 60 HR barrier. I think the evidence is skimpy.

Update: Fixed link. Jason also has a write up here.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:52 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
May 08, 2005
Awful Offense
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The Oakland Athletics batters must be pretty bad if the Yankees staff can shut them out on consecutive days. Not even the combination of Brown and Gordon would give up a run this Sunday. Like the Moose yesterday, Brown didn't strike out many, didn't walk many, but the balls in play did not find holes. The A's are now batting .236 as a team and are scoring 3.5 runs per game as a team. Will any heads start to roll in the East Bay?

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:03 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 05, 2005
Shakeup Time?
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Brad Radke finishes up a 9-0 shutout of the Indians. Brad gave up just three hits and no walks. The Indians failed to make him work, as Radke averaged 13 pitches per inning.

What is wrong with Cleveland? At what point does Shapiro start making moves to change the roster? The team needs some kind of a shakeup; they should not be this bad. Could Eric Wedge be in trouble? This was the year the Indians were expected to compete.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:54 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (1)
May 04, 2005
A's Get an F
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Just how bad is the Oakland Athletics offense? They're being shutout through six innings against the Texas Rangers. This season, they've scored 10 runs vs. the Rangers in their previous three games. The Rangers come into the game with a 5.01 ERA; it's 5.22 against everyone except the A's.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:14 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
May 01, 2005
Tip Top
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A great job by the 1-2-3 hitters for the Brewers tonight. They reached base eleven times and scored nine runs. Brady Clark continues to be excellent from the leadoff spot, now sporting a .400 OBA and leading the team with 18 runs scored in 24 games.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:09 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Youth Movement
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The Giants scored eight runs today against the Pirates to earn a sweep in Pittsburgh. Alou used his young lineup today, as Niekro, Ellison and Torealba were all in the lineup. In 97 combined at bats, these three are hitting .371 with 36 hits, 7 walks and 15 extra-base hits. Their older counterparts, Snow, Grissom and Matheny are hitting .260 in a combined 208 at bats, with 54 hits, 13 walks and 17 extra-base hits. Maybe it's time to make a change.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:43 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom's Up
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The Toronto Blue Jays take 2 out of 3 from the New York Yankees with an 8-6 victory in the Bronx. The interesting thing about the Toronto offense this season is that most of the damage is coming from the bottom of the order. Today, the 5-9 hitters were 9 for 20 with seven runs scored and 3 RBI. If you look at Toronto by lineup slot for the season, you see the same thing.

My guess is that this is a good thing. I assume the Blue Jays have put the lineup together properly; it's great the bottom is picking up for the slumping top. But eventually you have to assume that these things will even out, which will still leave the Blue Jays with a pretty good offense.

It should also be noted that the Toronto bullpen threw four hitless innings to earn the win. It was a stellar outing from a less than stellar relief corps.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:58 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 28, 2005
Rare Hit and Run
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The Angels take a 1-0 lead in the top of the third. Figgins singles, steals second, then he goes for third and Guerrero hits the ball through the spot vacated by A-Rod. A perfect hit and run on the steal of third. Brown then gives up a double to Anderson that Sheffield bobbles and Guerrero scores. No error on the play, however, which I don't understand.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:54 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Zounds!
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Greg Zaun hit his third homer of the season as the Blue Jays come back from a 3-0 deficit to take a 5-3 lead on the Devil Rays. Currently at .581, Zaun has the highest slugging percentage on the Blue Jays with 10 of his 20 hits going for extra bases. He's a 34 year-old catcher with a career .380 slugging percentage so don't expect this to last.

Update: Check out the comment on Josh Towers. The Blue Jays win 7-4.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:44 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
April 25, 2005
Finding a Stance
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Dan Agonistes reprints an article from the 1880's that explores the proper batting stance. The author finds that there are as many stances as there are good hitters. Some of the descriptions are pretty strange and are no longer seen on major league teams.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:03 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 23, 2005
As Alfonzo Goes...
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The Giants offense has hit a snag. After a torrid ten games of scoring (6.6 runs per game), they've only managed two runs a game over their last five contests. Edgardo was hitting .488 with a .560 OBA and a .756 slugging percentage through April 17. Since, the numbers are .176/.333/.176.

If you look at the Giants players over this season, Alfonzo is the only player who has combined the ability to get on base with power. With 2/3 of the lineup making a lot of outs, there's not going to be many on base for the sluggers to drive in.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:17 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 22, 2005
Checking the Numbers
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Following up on a post from a week ago, scoring is still down about 1/2 a run from the same time last year:

First Nineteen Days20042005
Games230237
Runs22732205
Runs/Game9.99.3
Home Runs522469
HR/Game2.32.0
The Major League save percentage is up closer to where it was last year, however. Through the first nineteen days of 2004, it was 64.2% (115/179). So far through 2005 it's 61.6 (106/172).
Posted by StatsGuru at 01:41 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
April 21, 2005
Offensive League
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Has anyone noticed that the NL is putting up better offensive numbers than the AL this season?

2005ALNL
Batting Average.261.260
On Base Average.326.331
Slugging Average.410.416

The NL is getting on base more and hitting for more power, despite having a pitcher bat. This has to be the best reason I've ever seen for getting rid of the designated hitter.

I think a big reason for this is the AL #4 hitters aren't getting the job done. There are 9 teams with aggregate #4 hitters with OPS under .800. If you can't get a .350 OBA and a .450 slugging percentage out of your cleanup guy, you have a problem. And lots of AL teams find themselves in that situation.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:02 PM | TrackBack (1)
April 18, 2005
Leading the Way
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The Tigers Orioles game features two leadoff men off to outstanding starts, starts out of line with their careers. Brandon Inge has two more hits tonight to raise his OBA to .407. Inge had a huge jump last year in OBA, and may be doing it again.

Brian Roberts is 1 for 2, and is OBA goes down to .533. You know you're having a great season when a good night lowers your average.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:21 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
April 16, 2005
Wrong End of the Battery
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Yadier Molina is off to a terrible start. He's 1 for 26 to begin 2005, an .038 BA. He did draw a walk today to raise his OBA to .074. Most pitchers hit better than that. The Cardinals have an excellent offense, but they need a minimum amount of hitting from the catcher spot. Offense worse than an average pitcher is not going to keep the third Molina brother in the majors.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:28 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
April 15, 2005
Offense and Age
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Age does not seem to be the problem with the fall off in offense as this graph shows. (Click on graph for a larger image.)

Chart of Averages by Age, 2005.

BA and OBA trend up until the mid-30's and are still good after that. They batters who stick around that long are the good ones. We'll see if this trend holds up as the year goes on.

Update: To clarify, this is a graph for this year only. Age is the seasonal age of players, that is, the age before July 1, 2005.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:00 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Offense Down
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Maybe it took a year for the steroids to work out of the batters systems. Runs scored are significantly down from the same period last year:

First Twelve Days20042005
Games136133
Runs13811290
Runs/Game10.29.7
Home Runs302266
HR/Game2.22.0

There's been a real lack of offense from the 3-4-5 hitters in the AL. I'm not sure what's going on; maybe there haven't been too many games in hitters parks yet. Maybe it's the lack of steroids. My guess thought, is that it has more to do with age. Remember this post showing how hitters in 2004 were among the oldest in the history baseball. The lack of a youth movement may be catching up to MLB.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:44 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
April 12, 2005
Team-Cycle
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Through four innings, the Washington Nationals have four hits; a single by Guillen, a double by Johnson, a triple by Wilkerson and a home run by Vidro. Vidro's was a solo shot, and the Nationals lead the Braves 1-0.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:29 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
April 11, 2005
Productive Padres
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The San Diego Padres entered today leading the majors in on-base average with a .402 mark. Part of that, I'm sure, was starting the season in Coors, but looking up and down the lineup the only regular doing poorly in this stat is Phil Nevin. They're third in the majors in runs scored as well. With that kind of offense, they should be in for a very good year.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:34 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
April 08, 2005
Pirate Plate Discipline
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The Tribune-Review has an excellent article on the Pirates plate discipline. It shows that Lloyd McClendon has a very good handle on the problem:

"Plate discipline was one of the things I wanted to concentrate on," McClendon said. "On-base percentage is a tricky thing, but we had to work on it. If we can get the walks up, it means more guys on base and the more chance we have of scoring runs. You're able to turn that lineup over and bring your best hitters to the plate more often."

...

"The most important thing we want our guys to understand is we need to get into better hitting counts," McClendon said as spring training was wrapping up. "When you get into better hitting counts, you become better hitters. If you look at the numbers in the NL the past few years, guys in 2-1 counts were hitting .340, when the count was 3-1 they were hitting .330.

"What we've tried to accomplish is to be more patient so we can get ourselves into better hitting counts."

Good stats on how the Pirates were very poor last season at getting into good hitting counts. As the first three games of the season demonstrate, it's easier to talk about than actually change the way players approach the game. It's up to Littlefield to find players who already practice selectivity.

Correction: Fixed link.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:26 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
April 06, 2005
Bubbling Brew
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The Brewers mauled the Pittsburgh Pirates again today. They did one better than Monday, defeating the Pirates 10-2; that's 19-4 over two games. It's good to see that they're not only hitting (22 hits in two games) but drawing walks as well (9 combined). It makes you wonder if the homers will really fly when they get home to Miller Park.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:25 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
February 24, 2005
Move Along
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Are the Athletics going to play little ball this year?

Today's first full-squad workout at Papago Park will have a different slant from past springs -- one that reflects the A's relative lack of power this year.

For the next four to six days, instead of spending all their on-field hitting time taking batting practice against pitchers, the A's hitters will be concentrating on situational hitting half the time. The hitters will be split into two groups, according to manager Ken Macha. One group will hit off pitchers each day, while the other will be working on moving runners over, putting the ball in play with runners going, getting runners in from third with two strikes and bunting.

Those aren't areas in which Oakland has excelled recently. The A's attempts at hit-and-runs were disastrous last year, and just a few of their hitters can bunt well. But with Eric Chavez the only man on the team to have hit more than 23 home runs in a season, the A's are going to have to buck their old walk-and-whack ways and learn to manufacture runs.

"Guys understand this is not a team with four guys hitting 40 home runs," hitting coach Dave Hudgens said. "We've got to be more efficient. If we'd done that last year, we would have won more games."

Bill James made a study of efficiency in The Baseball Handbook 2005. Indeed, it shows the Athletics as the second worst team in terms of being efficient in scoring runs. However, they were very efficient in winning games, with only the Yankees doing better. (In other words, they scored fewer runs than they should have given their offense. But given the number of runs scored and allowed, they won more games than they should have, also.)

It also goes to show how difficult it is to pigeonhole the A's and their philosophy. It's not all about OBA and home runs. It's about what works. They've seen a deficiency, and they're taking time to correct it. I don't think they'll be bunting in the first inning too often, but when they do want to move a runner via a sacrifice or hit and run, they want it to work.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:42 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
February 22, 2005
Hitting a Problem?
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Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News is worried about the Rangers designated hitter.

Designated hitter, a problem all of last season, remains wide open. The Rangers used 10 players there, none more than 62 times. The club opted not to bring Brad Fullmer back, then failed to land free agent Carlos Delgado.

So, they go to camp with the possibility of a platoon. Or they could still be chumming the waters for trades.

It's always amazing to me that teams can't come up with a designated hitter. There have to be a few players kicking around the minor leagues who can tear the cover off the ball but are a liability in the field. How many years did Edgar Martinez hang around the minors until the Mariners thought, "We have a position for someone who can hit but not field! We could have had a DH!" David Delluci is not the answer. DH isn't for the leftover hitter. It should be reserved for a great batter who can't play the field.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:32 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
January 14, 2005
Waiting for Godot
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Balls, Sticks and Stuff links to an article by Alan Schwarz on patience at the plate. Schwarz discusses the problems with describing patience; is it the player who walks a lot, or the player who takes a lot of pitches, or the player who waits for his pitch?

Many years ago I had a discussion about this at ESPN which made me stop using the word patient to describe hitters. Whenever I start using "patient", I delete it and use "selective" instead. Describing someone as a patient hitter labels them as passive. Selective indicates that they are actively involved in searching for the right pitch to hit. Yes, there is patience involved, but the selective hitter isn't afraid to swing at the first pitch if it's the pitch for which he's looking. A subtle difference, but one that more accurately describes the process.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:58 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
April 27, 2004
Bottoms Up
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The Yankees look like they finally have something going. After Chavez hit a solo, opposite field HR in the top of the 3rd, Matsui, Clark and Cairo put together three consecutive hits to plate two runs. Jeter bunts Cairo to third (Jeter was bunting for a hit), so the Yankees have a chance to pick up another.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:59 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
April 22, 2004
Leading the Way
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The Padres had a big win over the Giants tonight, 11-0. They struck out Bonds in the 2nd, then walked him until he came out of the game. The Padres got the leadoff man on in each of the first eight innings, and that runner scored in seven of those. Peavy and his relievers had no problems with the rest of the Giants lineup. There's no pop outside of Bonds.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:25 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
April 04, 2004
Shifty Hitter
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The Red Sox put the shift on Palmeiro, with Reese to the right of 2nd base. Palmeiro just grounded an easy one through the empty shortstop position for an RBI. Palmeiro doesn't strike me as an extreme pull hitter.

Update: Timlin's not having a good night, but Javy Lopez is. Lopez drives one into deep right center for a double, long enough to score the slow Palmeiro from first. It's 6-1 Orioles, still in the 7th.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:42 PM | TrackBack (0)
March 15, 2004
Phillies Phizzle?
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This article relates some worries about the Phillies offense so far this spring. And yes, it's way to early to get too worried about their lack of runs. But one thing did strike me as interesting:


One of Bowa's stated goals this season has been to cut down on strikeouts. So far, so bad. The Phillies have whiffed 92 times in 12 games.

"That's a lot," Bowa said. "And Thome's not playing. You expect home-run hitters to strike out a lot and that's all right, because you expect them to do a lot of damage, too."


Will Bowa be able to achieve this goal by the end of spring training? If not, will Bowa blame the players or his own poor coaching for the phailure?

Update: Link works now.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:18 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
March 11, 2004
Don't Walk
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Douglas Calhoun sends this link to a Chicago-Sun Times article in which Dusty Baker gives his opinion on offensive walks. He doesn't like them.


Cubs manager Dusty Baker has some advice for young players who are encouraged by coaches and parents to wait out pitches and try to draw a walk: Swing away.

''It's like when I see kids in Little League, the small kid, and they make them go up there and try to get a walk,'' Baker said. ''It's not any fun. It's called hitting; it's not called walking. Have you ever seen like a Top 10 walking? The name of the game is to hit.''


Just for the record, I have seen a top 10 walking. Baker then digs himself into a hole:

''Walks help, but you aren't going to walk across the plate,'' Baker said. ''You've got to hit across the plate. Who has been champions quite a bit the last seven, eight years?''

Told the New York Yankees, Baker used them to prove his point.
''Now, have you ever heard the Yankees talk about on-base percentage and walks?'' he said.


I'd say yes. They've finished first in the AL in walks three times from 1998 on. 2001 Was the only year in which they drew less than 600 walks. After that they replace Brosius and Martinez with Ventura and Giambi, two players who draw a lot of walks. Dusty seems to know as much about offense as he does about heat.

Douglas comments:


I was particularly amused (and disappointed, as a Cubs fan) by the last quote. No, you might not hear about the Yankees taking walks. But I guess Dusty didn't bother to look up that the Yankees consistently lead the league in that category. Maybe he's just sticking up for his free-swinging players, but it would be nice if he would focus on improving deficiencies rather than relying on played-out, "old-school" macho attitudes.

Right on, Douglas.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:01 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack (3)
October 23, 2003
Boone vs. Godzilla
Permalink

Aaron Boone's 11th inning plate apperance last night is a good negative example of why I like Hideki Matsui so much. We've been hearing praise of Matsui as a situational hitter, such as this by his manager, Joe Torre:


"He knows how to hit," Torre said. "By that I mean he knows how to hit in situations. To me, that's more important than a lot of ability somebody else might have. ... He's pretty good at being able to detect a strike as opposed to 'I'm going to look for a fastball and swing at it no matter where it is.' He's a good situational guy."

Boone was just the opposite at the plate in the 11th. The Yankees had the bases loaded, 1 out and the Marlins brought the infield in. Matsui (and most great hitters) in this situation would wait for a pitch that he could handle. The pitcher can't afford to throw balls in this situation, since a walk gives the opposition the lead. Unless the first pitch is the phattest you've ever seen, you should take it. Give the pitcher a chance to put himself in the hole so you can force him into the strikezone. Boone swung at the first pitch and missed. Now Boone's in the hole. He swings at the 2nd pitch and fouls it off. Now he's really in the hole, and has to swing defensively.

And, I might remind, that these were full-force spin-me-around grand-slam swings. He wasn't just trying to meet the ball, he was trying to kill it. The infield was in! If he just meets the ball the likelihood is that the Yankees are going to score.

In the end, Boone saw seven pitches and swung at six of them, missing the last one. He did not adjust to the initial situation. He did not adjust during the AB. He did everything wrong. I was waiting for Willie Randolph to run down from the third base coaching box and yell at him to choke up on the bat. Matsui or Jeter or Posada or (choose your favorite Yankee other than Soriano) would have approached that situation differently. I can't say that the outcome would have been different, but I can the chance of a better outcome would have been a lot higher. I hope Aaron's been properly scolded about that event.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:36 AM | TrackBack (0)
October 02, 2003
Bunt From the Past
Permalink

I was talking with my friend Jim Storer, and he remembered Gary Allenson bunting with the bases loaded and two out to win a game for the Red Sox. We had been at the game together. I found it. That tenth inning vs. the Angels on August 28th, 1982 and last night's twelfth inning are similar. Here's the 1982 game:


RED SOX 10TH: Yastrzemski struck out; Lansford singled to
Downing; Lansford stole second; Boggs was walked intentionally;
Lansford stole third and Boggs stole second; Nichols struck out;
MILLER BATTED FOR HOFFMAN; Miller was walked intentionally;
Allenson singled to DeCinces [Lansford scored, Boggs to third,
Miller to second]; 1 R, 2 H, 0 E, 3 LOB. Angels 6, Red Sox 7.

Here's the account from last night:

Athletics twelfth. Durazo walked on a full count. Chavez grounded into fielder's choice, second baseman Jackson to shortstop Garciaparra, Durazo out. Tejada grounded out, third baseman Mueller to first baseman Millar, Chavez to second. Hatteberg walked on a full count. Chavez stole third. On defensive indifference, Hatteberg to second. Long was intentionally walked. Hernandez bunt single to third, Chavez scored, Hatteberg to third, Long to second.
Runs: 1, Hits: 1

Theo's probably not old enough to remember that game. Jim and I were both impressed that Allenson pulled that off. (I believe someone once called Allenson "Slow as a speeding bureaucracy.") It's a great play, one we should see more often.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:02 AM | TrackBack (0)
August 27, 2003
Missing Stewart
Permalink

Devon Young writes:


Is it just me, or has Toronto really gone downhill since they traded away Shannon Stewart. I also just noticed Delgado has 117 RBI's. Which means he's really slowed down in the past month or so. Since Stewart was traded maybe? At the same time, it seems the Twins have been better since they aquired him. I'm thinking Stewart was a bigger peice of that offensive puzzle than the Blue Jays realized.

Stewart last played for the Blue Jays before the All-Star break, so that's a convinent point to look at Delgado and the Blue Jays 1-2 hitters. Before the All-Star break, Delgado had 97 RBI in 94 games. The 1-2 hitters for the Jays had a .351 OBA. Coming into today, Delgado had 20 RBI in 37 games post break, and the 1-2 hitters have a .327 OBA. The interesting thing is that Stewart was injured late May to late June, and the Blue Jays did just fine. I think the loss of Stewart has hurt the Jays, but Delgado's power has disappeared, also. His pre-break slugging percentage was .629, post .471. My guess is that Delgado has become the Barry Bonds of the AL, where they just walk him all the time.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:26 PM | TrackBack (0)
July 28, 2003
Offensive Breakdown
Permalink

The Diamondbacks continue to sputter on offense. They are in the 7th against the Marlins, and have only one run tonight. Shea Hillenbrand went deep for the only run of the game for the DBacks. Meanwhile, rookie Miguel Cabrera has driven in all three Marlins runs with a homer and a double. He's now slugging .553.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:48 PM | TrackBack (0)
July 14, 2003
Positive Tiger Note
Permalink

Last week, a reader wrote me to inquire about the Yankees DP's, specifically, did they ground into a lot of double plays. The answer is yes and no. If you look at GDP totals, the Yankees lead the AL, and are tied for 2nd in the majors with 88. However, the Yankees have had many more DP situations than any other team, due to the fact that they get on base so well. If you look at DP's as a percentage of situations, the Yankees have the 12th lowest percentage in the majors, at 10.9%.

The positive not about the Tigers is that they not only have hit into the fewest GDP's in the majors (51), but they have the 2nd lowest percentage per situation. One might expect, that with their anemic offense, Detroit would not have many chance to hit into DP's, and that is true. But at 9.8% of GDP per situation, only the Texas Rangers (9.3%) have done better. Part of this, of course, is that the Tigers strike out a lot (2nd in the AL), and you can't hit into a DP striking out. But, they don't kill rallies with DP's either.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:23 AM | TrackBack (0)
July 02, 2003
Be Patient
Permalink

Elphants in Oakland make a good case for being selective at the plate.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:48 AM | TrackBack (0)
June 28, 2003
25 Runs
Permalink

Yesterday, the Red Sox were 2nd in the majors in runs per game, trailing Toronto 6.24 to 6.07. Today, they lead Toronto 6.31 to 6.24.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:49 AM | TrackBack (0)
June 23, 2003
Hatteberg
Permalink

One of the stars of Moneyball is Scott Hatteberg. Beane saw value where everyone else saw a washed up catcher. It just paid off for Beane again. Despite pitching okay, Zito looked like he was going to pick up his first loss at the hands of the Rangers, 1-0. But Urbina gave up a hit, a walk and a bunt single on a sacrifice attempt. He struck out Byrnes looking, but on a 1-0 pitch, Hatteberg got a fat one and ripped it into right for a bases clearing double. A's are up 3-0, batting now with two out, and Foulke will be coming in for a save. It's Urbina's fourth blown save of the year.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:58 PM | TrackBack (0)
June 22, 2003
Posada vs. Rivera
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If you are watching the Yankee-Mets game, I hope you saw the two plate appearances by Jorge Posada and Juan Rivera. It says a lot about why Posada is a very good offensive player and Juan Rivera isn't.

Posada came in as a pinch hitter in the ninth. Benitez had walked the three left-handed batters he faced in the 9th, and got the two righties to fly out. Posada took six pitches and drew a walk. Only one of the called strikes was really a strike, and Posada was willing to wait for a pitch down the middle, or not swing.

Rivera then pinch hit for the pitcher. He took the first pitch for a ball, the second for a strike, then on the third pitch, he swung. He wasn't thinking about looking for his pitch, he was thinking about swinging. He swung at ball two, low and outside. He grounded weakly to second.

Benitez had problems finding the plate that inning. Eventually, he was going to have to throw a fast ball down the middle or lose the lead. Rivera did not have the disipline to wait for that pitch. Or if it never came, to draw the walk and drive in the go-ahead run that way. That is why there is a 120 point difference between the OBA of Jorge Posada and Juan Rivera.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:52 PM | TrackBack (0)
The Old Man's Position
Permalink

In my previous post, I was writing about DHs, and I wondered about two things; were the DHs the best hitters on the team, and how much older were DHs than the rest of their fielding teammates. The following table tries to show each of these:












Hitting, 1987-2002Age per PAOBA+ Slug
As ss25.5 0.695
As cf26.0 0.752
As 2b26.3 0.721
As rf26.4 0.798
As 1b26.7 0.823
As 3b26.8 0.755
As c26.9 0.709
As lf27.1 0.786
All DH29.7 0.781

Notice that the DH for the years in question is less offensively valued than the first baseman, the rightfielder and the leftfielder. DHs should be doing at least as well as the first basemen. Secondly, look at the age discrepency between the DH and the leftfielder. DHs are more than a year and a half older than the oldest position player! Ballplayers peak around age 27, and that (not surprising) is the age of the oldest fielding position. Yet DHs are nearly 30 years old, approaching the age where their production will be falling off.

So while I don't mind the concept of the DH, I don't like the implementation at all. Instead of putting young, stud hitters who can't field at DH, old, formerly good hitters are inserted in the slot. Instead of leaving baseball because they can no longer field, they are kept around at inflated salaries taking up a slot a younger, better and cheaper player could be using.

So why not a 22 year-old DH? I think it's the way clubs perceive players. If you can't field when you are 22, you can't be a real ball player. It's okay for your skills to decline as you age, but they want you to have the skills to begin with. But why not bring up the kid you can't field? There's always going to be some other 22 year-old waiting to take his place. Instead of paying millions to some slugger in his late 30's, spend the money on a real fielder, and pay some kid near the minimum. It makes sense to me. What do others think?

Update: I sometimes forget that not all readers of this site are as versed in the Jamesian way of thinking about baseball as I am. The author of binarytoybox.com didn't quite understand what I was driving at in this post, and that's my fault for not being clear. Let me try again.

In the first Bill James Abstract I owned, the 1983 edition, Bill discusses the defensive spectrum. This is what it looks like:


P SS C 2B CF 3B RF LF 1B DH

The farther to the left you are on this spectrum, the more your defense is valued. That is because these are tough defensive positions to play. The more you move to the right, the more your offense is valued. This is why the Yankees were not afraid to replace Tino Martinez with Jason Giambi. If you look at the OPS column in the table above, you see that the ranking of OPS almost exactly matches the defensive spectrum. RF is better than LF is OPS, but that may be due to more leadoff types being used in left field over the last 15 years. But the big discrepency is DH. Instead of having the highest OPS by position, DH is fourth.

My argument is that teams have a position where all the player has to worry about is offense, and yet they don't go out to find a player who's only value is great offense to fill it. Edgar Martinez is what a DH should be, and he didn't become a full-time DH until he was 30 years old. Edgar didn't get fully out of the minors until he was 26. I'm not sure why, but I bet because no one thought he was a great third baseman. But if the Mariners had realized when he was 21 that all he was going to be was a hitter, he could have been a 21-year-old DH who hit like crazy, took pitches that wore down the opposing pitcher, and be flirting with 3000 hits. Take your aging slugger, and trade him to someone who thinks aging sluggers are valuable. If you are going to use a DH, fill it with some stud with hand of iron and a .380 OBA and a .500 slugging percentage.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:15 PM | TrackBack (2)
June 19, 2003
Manufacturing
Permalink

Nate Cornejo has given up just one hit, but two earned runs. Toy maker Milton Bradley hit a solo HR, and cereal tycoon Coco Crisp drew a walk, stole 2nd, was sacrificed to third, and scored on a ground out.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:54 PM | TrackBack (0)
June 12, 2003
Nothing to do with Baseball
Permalink

David Brinkley passed away yesterday. The Huntley-Brinkley report was the first news show I watched regularly. I always enjoyed his delievery, and his wry sense of humor.

Good night, David.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:33 AM | TrackBack (0)
June 04, 2003
Mariners Win
Permalink

The Mariners beat the Phillies for the 2nd time. The score was 7-2. One reason the Mariners have been so successful is the top of the offense. Looking at the boxscore, the OBA's of the top five hitters are .371, .374, .386, .394 and .386. That's a lot of players getting on base, and the more they do that, the more opportunities they have to get on base. OBA is like an interest rate; runs go up exponentially with OBA, so it's best to stick your highest on-base players at the top of the order so they get more chances to get on base, and score more runs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:52 PM | TrackBack (0)
May 17, 2003
Blue Jay Bombers
Permalink

The Toronto Blue Jays come into today tied for third in runs scored per game. They're doing everything well. They are hitting (.289 BA), they are getting on base (151 walks), and they are hitting for power (117 extra base hits, most in the AL). Unfortunately, their pitchers are letting the Jays opponents hit almost as well. The Blue Jays need a couple of good pitchers to contend. Their fellow countrymen, the Expos could use a little more offense and have good pitching. Should an intra-country trade be in the works?

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:04 PM | TrackBack (0)
May 06, 2003
RBI Men
Permalink

Quick quiz. Entering today, three teams have four players with 20 RBI. Can you name them?

Read More ?


Posted by StatsGuru at 09:22 PM | TrackBack (0)
Yer Out!
Permalink
I saw this list in my daily STATS, Inc. newsletter today.
Most outs this year

Carl Crawford         111
Vernon Wells          110
Juan Pierre           110
Miguel Tejada         109
Nomar Garciaparra     106
Pat Burrell           105
Shannon Stewart       104
Jimmy Rollins         103
Juan Encarnacion      102
Johnny Damon          100
Alex Sanchez          100
It's an interesting list. At lot of leadoff types who don't have great OBA's (Johnny Damon), or leadoff men who play every day (Shannon Stewart). The outs they consume contract the offense for the rest of the team; they're taking AB away from Manny Ramirez and Jim Thome and Carlos Delgado.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:09 AM | TrackBack (0)
May 02, 2003
St. Louis Sluggers
Permalink

The Cardinals offense continues to roll. The 3-7 hitters in tonight's lineup are all slugging over .500, and they are a combined 7 for 15 tonight.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:03 PM | TrackBack (0)
April 30, 2003
Top In Texas
Permalink

Just looking at the Texas-Toronto box score. Through 6 innings tonight, the top of the Texas order has the following stats:




BatterOBASlug
Everett.409.756
Blalock.440.639
A. Rodriguez.443.676

Looks more like the heart of the order than the top. Palmeiro and Gonzalez should have a ton of RBI this year.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:58 PM | TrackBack (0)
April 26, 2003
Left On Base
Permalink

In general, teams that leave a lot of men on base are teams that have good offenses. In order to leave men on base, you have to be able to get men on base, and that usually means you are scoring runs.

But the Reds today were ridiculous. They left 18 men on base. That's the highest in the NL this year (TB left 21 on base on April 1st). They were 1 for 15 with men in scoring position! That shouldn't be surprising, since they came into today with a .201 BA with men in scoring position, tied with Arizona for lowest in the majors. Despite all this, they scored 7 runs and won the game! The scored two on a HR with a man on first, two on fielder's choices, and two on bases loaded walks, including the run that won the game. Get men on, and you will score.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:21 PM | TrackBack (0)
April 22, 2003
Hit and Run
Permalink

Watching the Yankee game, I just saw something unusual. Nick Johnson on first, 1 out, Johnson tries to steal and almost gets picked off. Johnson is not a good basestealer. A couple of pitches later, Johnson does take off, and Giambi takes the ball the opposite way for a hit and run single. Not the two players I would expect to execute that play.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:16 PM | TrackBack (0)
Top Brew
Permalink

The Brewers offense is a bit better this year; 4.2 runs/game vs. 3.9 runs per game last year. One reason is that they now have 1/2 an offense. The 1-2-3-4 hitters are doing what they are supposed to be doing, getting on base and hitting for power. By grouping their best hitters together at the top, the Brewers can get the most runs from their talent. Tonight, for example, the 1-2 hitters have each scored a run, and the 3-4 hitters have each driven in a run.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:53 PM | TrackBack (0)
Devilish-Lee
Permalink

Who would have thought that Travis Lee would make such a difference to a club. He last played on April 13th.





DRaysThrough 4/134/14 Through 4/21
Record5-71-6
Batting Average.295.228
Runs per Game5.33.6

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:37 PM | TrackBack (0)
D'Angelo of the Morning
Permalink

The first three hitters in the Chicago White Sox lineup tonight all have OBA's over .400. The leadoff hitter this year has be D'Angelo Jimenez. He's kicked around the majors for a few years, but someone in the White Sox organization saw his potential as a leadoff man and put him in the top slot. He's responded great so far, with a .452 OBA, and 12 extra base hits to put his slugging percentage at .662.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:21 PM | TrackBack (0)
First 20 Games
Permalink
It looks like the Yankees are not going to threaten the record for most runs scored in the first 20 games of a season. They currently have 134. The record from 1901 to 2002 is:
TeamRuns Scored, First 20 Games
Detroit Tigers 1993158
NY Giants 1930154
St. Louis Cardinals 2000151
Colorado Rockies 1997150
Chicago White Sox 2000149
However, the Yankees are very close to their record for most runs scored in the team's first 20 games:
TeamRuns Scored, First 20 Games
New York Yankees 1951136
New York Yankees 1932136
New York Yankees 1936134
New York Yankees 1939133
New York Yankees 1934132
Posted by StatsGuru at 03:48 PM | TrackBack (0)
Scarce Runs
Permalink

I hate to keep harping on how bad the Tigers offense is performing, but I was just looking at the list of teams sorted by runs scored and this caught my eye:




Team, 2003Runs Scored
Tigers34
Diamondbacks68
Mets69

They've scored half as many runs as the 2nd lowest scoring team in the league. And exactly 100 less than the major league leaders, the NY Yankees.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:28 AM | TrackBack (0)
April 18, 2003
St. Louis Sluggers
Permalink

With another six runs so far tonight, the Cardinals continue to lead the majors in runs per game. They're scoring more than the Red Sox or Yankees without a DH. They've had 10 hits tonight, six for extra bases. Their team slugging percentage is over .500. This may turn out to be their best offensive team since 1930.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:54 PM | TrackBack (0)
Life Without Brian
Permalink

The Pirates miss Brian Giles. They've now played 7 games without him, and have only scored 17 runs in those games. This Pirate team is improved over last year, but the injury to Giles shows just how sensitive the offense is to his presence. The team is 2-5 without their star.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:06 PM | TrackBack (0)
Cubs Offense
Permalink

The Cub Reporter has the numbers on the last three games. What's interesting is that they have scored this many in three games twice in the last six years, but it's been since 1961 that they've scored this many and won all three games against the same team!

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:04 PM | TrackBack (0)
April 17, 2003
How You Can Tell It's Early in the Season
Permalink

Brent Mayne is leading the majors in OPS with a 1.318 mark. He has a .512 OBA and a .806 slugging percentage. His career OBA is .338 and his career slugging percentage is .359. He'll be thirty-five on Saturday, so I don't think he's made a breakthrough. It's a nice surprise, however, and he's certainly helped KC get off to a good start. Just don't expect it to last.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:34 AM | TrackBack (0)
April 16, 2003
Offensive Slump
Permalink

The Braves continue to slump offensively. Only 2 runs so far tonight. Luckily, the pitching has picked them up lately. Horacio Ramirez has thrown six shutout innings so far against the Expos.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:51 PM | TrackBack (0)
April 13, 2003
Phoenix Phun
Permalink

The Diamondbacks are having a great day at the plate. All the starters, except Counsell, have at least one hit, and 7 have scored a run.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:05 PM | TrackBack (0)
Weak Two-Thirds
Permalink

The four through nine hitters in the Cleveland Indians lineup today are all batting under .200. Only Brandon Phillips has any secondary stats, with a .400 slugging percentage. Times have changed in Cleveland.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:12 PM | TrackBack (0)
April 12, 2003
Mariners Hitting
Permalink

Earlier today I wrote about how Seattle was great on getting on base, but wasn't providing the power to drive in runs. Tonight, the first four men reached either by a walk, error or HBP. Then the hits started coming. After Cameron made an out, Seattle has 4 straight hits, including a double. It's 6-2 Seattle with one out in the first.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:38 PM | TrackBack (0)
Biggio Fading
Permalink

Craig Biggio is 0 for 3 tonight, and his OBA is now below .300 at .292. After years of getting on at a rate better than .380, Biggio fell off to .330 last year. He's only drawn 1 walk so far, and unless he can do a better job reaching first, the Astros are going to have to rethink using him at the top of the order. Richard Hidalgo would be my choice to replace him at leadoff.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:49 PM | TrackBack (0)
Seattle Slew
Permalink

Chan Ho Park got a win against the Mariners last night. His line was interesting. In 5 innings he only gave up 3 hits, but he walked 7. If you look at the lineup the Mariners put on the field last night, you get an idea of why Park could be that wild and win. Look at the OBA and Slugging in this boxscore. Suzuki, Boone, Olerud, McLemore and Cirillo all have on base averages higher than their slugging percentages. This means that they are getting many more walks than extra bases on their hits. So the Mariners right now have half an offense. They get on base, but they don't get the hits (and long hits) to move those base runners around.

Now, if I had to have a problem with my offense, this would be it. There are a number of good hitters on this team, and eventually they will get their hits. If you keep putting men on base, they will come around to score. But it also shows that just walking all the time isn't enough.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:31 AM | TrackBack (0)
April 11, 2003

After doubling in two runs to pull the Cubs within 1, Alou made a base running blunder and was caught off 2nd after a lineout to right by Karros. Those DP's don't show up in the GDP numbers, but they have the same effect. Pirates lead 3-2 in the top of the 5th.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:31 PM | TrackBack (0)
Double (Play) Trouble
Permalink

The Cubs just grounded into their 16th DP of the year, which leads the majors by four. Double plays effectively reduce your on-base percentage. The Cubs have a very good OBA of .376 coming into today. But if you take into account the DP's it is effectively reduced to .333. Overall, they are 4th in OBA, but if you adjust for GDP's, they are 11th.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:58 PM | TrackBack (0)
April 10, 2003
Winning with Wiggintion
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It's early in the season, and his career has been short, but Ty Wigginton is showing signs of being a good ballplayer. He's doing a good job of getting on base, as shown by his 9 runs scored (including the HR tonight) despite batting in front of the bottom of the order. At some point, the Mets need to move him to the top of the order. He's probably better than Cedeno at getting on base. With Alomar 1st and Wigginton 2nd, the Mets heart of the order will have lots of chances to drive in runs. (As I write this, Ty just doubled. He may score again.)

Update: Mets load the bases after scoring a run, no outs, and Josh Beckett gets it together and strikes out Glavine, Cedeno and Alomar to get out of the jam. Beckett has 5 K through 4 innings, but is down 2-0.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:03 PM | TrackBack (0)
April 09, 2003
Added Offense
Permalink

Two additions to the Marlins, Juan Pierre and Ivan Rodriguez are paying off. Pierre is getting on base and scoring (8 runs in 9 games) and Rodriguez is hitting and driving runs in (12 RBI in 8 games). Set the table and clean it off. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:07 PM | TrackBack (0)
April 08, 2003
Double Trouble
Permalink

The Cubs offense is in high gear. The G-men, Grudzielanek and Gonzalez are nearly unstoppable getting on base. Gonzalez already has eight doubles! It's a great start, but I don't think it will last. Grudzielanek has a career .326 OBA, and Alex S. Gonzalez is at .307, both with long enough careers that those numbers are meaningful. The Cubs need to ride this hot streak as long as possible, because if they revert to the mean, Sammy Sosa isn't going to have many runners to drive in.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:56 PM | TrackBack (0)
Indians Offense
Permalink

In looking at the boxscore for the White Sox-Indians game, I notice that the only two starters who are hitting are Bradley and Vizquel. As of the end of the game, the other seven starters all have batting averages under .200. They now have the 2nd lowest BA in the majors at .196, with only the Tigers at .133 being lower. They have the third lowest runs per game in the majors at 2.83. The Indians had numerous opportunities with runners in scoring position today, but were only 2 for 13 in those situations. The table setters are getting the job done, but no one is picking them up.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:47 PM | TrackBack (0)
Blistering Offense
Permalink

The Yankees have an OPS (on base average + slugging percentage) of 1.060. If an individual player has that kind of OPS, he's a superstar. And of course, they're doing this without Jeter. For a team to put up that number, even over six games, is very impressive. The Cubs (.907) and the Cardinals (.901) are also off to great offensive starts. The Yankees, of course, go outside for the first time today, and it's cold. They'll be facing a good pitcher in Joe Mays, so that lofty number may be deflated some.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:49 AM | TrackBack (0)
April 05, 2003
Getting Ridiculous
Permalink

The Tigers were 3 for 29 today, and were shutout for the 2nd time in 5 games. In the other three game, they've score 1 run twice and 2 runs once. They have 16 hits in 147 AB, a .109 BA. The team OBA and Slugging Pct. are both under .200.

I wrote kiddingly in my AL Central Preview that I thought the Tigers coaching staff could outhit the current team. I didn't think I would be right.

Update: Just doing a little checking. I'm back to 1987, and this is the fewest runs (4) scored in the first five games in that time span.






TeamYearRuns, First Five Games
Tigers20034
Orioles19885
Padres19887
Rangers19887

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:37 PM | TrackBack (0)
April 04, 2003
Valentine on Baserunning
Permalink

Daniel Shamah writes:


Bobby Valentine made possibly the most intelligent comment I've heard in a long time on Baseball Tonight this evening.

Discussing Trachsel's two pickoffs against the Cubs, Valentine noted that he felt that baserunning has gotten poorer recently. He then proceeded to say that until sabermetricians (his word!!) figure out a metric to analyze the offensive value of someone moving from first to third on a single, or someone advancing on a groundout, we'll never REALLY know how valuable good baserunning is. He described it, hesistently, as a fundamental (he even said that he hates the phrase "baseball fundamentals") part of baseball, and there are too many teams that just run themselves out of rallies, and that it was nothing more than his baseball instincts that suggested to him that too many teams are guilty of bad baserunning.

I literally watched my television agape. Valentine?! You know, the first few times I saw I figured ESPN hired him because he's a recognizable name and he's very personable on the air. But after that bit, I don't know...sabermetrics?! WOW.


Valentine is a smart guy. I always thought his weakness as a manager was his own ego. That actually works for television; you have to have supreme confidence in yourself to put your thoughts in front of millions of people every night.

As for baserunning, I don't know if it's any worse than it's ever been. Certainly, defenses have adjusted with pitchers going to slide steps. The running game has also degraded because in eras of high power, the SB becomes less valuable, and therefore, it's not used as much. Why risk stealing 2nd if the guy at the plate can jack the ball out of the park?

As for Sabrmetricians putting a value on going from first to third, Bobby's a bit behind the times here. I'd point him to The Hidden Game of Baseball by Thorn and Palmer, published in the 1980's. They have a chart in that book showing the run potential for each base/out situation. You can use that to calculate the value of any advancement or any 1-run strategy. In general, not making an out is much more important than gaining a base.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:46 AM | TrackBack (0)
April 03, 2003
Detroit Tabbies
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Sorry, Tigers is just too strong a word for this team. The Tigers, after 3 games, have 10 hits in 90 AB. They drawn 2 walks. They tried one steal but were thrown out. They have two extra base hits, a solo HR by Eric Munson and a double by Infante. That's a .111 BA, a .130 OBA and a .156 slugging pct. This team would make Mario Mendoza look like Babe Ruth.

Tiger fans, it won't be that bad all year. These players have made a major league team, after all. But it sure doesn't give you any hope for an improvement this year.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:14 PM | TrackBack (0)
With or Without You
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This SF Gate recap points out that the Giants offense is scoring very well despite Bonds not hitting much against the Padres.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:20 AM | TrackBack (0)
April 02, 2003
Bronx Bombers
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Yankees have 15 hits through 6 innings, 9 for extra bases (7 doubles, 2 HR).

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:13 PM | TrackBack (0)
For the Birds
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Orioles offense performing more like I thought they would. 1-4 hitters are 0 for 9 with a walk. Cleveland leads 2-1 in the 6th.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:36 PM | TrackBack (0)
Simon Says
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Pirates are getting on base. They've had 6 men on in the first two innings, and hacker Randall Simon connected for a 3 run HR. Austin Kearns has gone deep for the Reds to make the score 3-2. I expect the Griffey-Kearns-Dunn heart of the order to put up big numbers this year.

Update: Griffey goes deep, too. 3-3.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:50 PM | TrackBack (0)
April 01, 2003
Devil Rey
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Rey Ordonez is up with a man on and a chance to win the game.

Update: Woodard strikes out Ordonez.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:27 PM | TrackBack (0)
DRays
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Travis Lee has homered to bring the DRays back within 1 of the Red Sox. I'm keeping my eye on Lee this year, and so far, so good.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:08 PM | TrackBack (0)
Diamondbacks Score
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A walk and two singles set up the first Diamondbacks run of the season. Odalis Perez having a rough first inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:54 PM | TrackBack (0)
March 31, 2003
Orioles Offense
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I called them pathetic, but the Orioles pounded out 15 hits today in 13 innings. They did, however, only draw 1 walk, so they are no Cubbies.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:16 PM | TrackBack (0)
March 30, 2003
Getting On
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With Alex Rodriguez's HR, everyone in the Texas lineup has reached base tonight.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:41 PM | TrackBack (0)
Eckstein
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Sticks to the company line and puts the ball in play up the middle. I love the little guy.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:34 PM | TrackBack (0)
First Run
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A Texas Ranger with a Texas Leaguer! Everett scores the first run on a broken bat single by Juan Gone.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:24 PM | TrackBack (0)