|
So yes, both Bryan's perception and the hit streak data were correct, there's been a big fall off in offense lately. As for the cause? Earlier in the year I remember reading a story about players being afraid to take supplements due to the steroid testing. I remember it being Omar Vizquel saying that players were smaller because they had stopped taking the off the shelf products. We might be seeing teams wear down because of that.
There's the possibility that steroids were used not so much to gain strength as to allow a player to go through a full season. If players cut back on use, they also may be wearing out.
But I believe this chart tells us what we need to know. Players are old. Last year was the oldest the majors have been since the end of WWII when baseball brought back everyone who had lost time to fighting. Old players aren't as durable as young players. Even now, teams are bringing up old players from the minors to make their first appearances. Where are the youngsters?
Update: While the players making their debuts this season seem old, it's actually the youngest average debuts we've had in a few years. The average debut age is 24.7 years this season, compared to 24.8 last year, 25.0 in 2003 and 25.3 in 2002. Still, in the late 1970's and early 1980's the debut age was in the high 23's and low 24's. The game is getting older.
Everyone in the Red Sox lineup tonight has an on-base average above the AL mean of .331. Nice job by Theo and Terry.
The Orioles are down 6-2 to the White Sox in the 8th inning. This has been typical of their 2-10 streak in which they've been outscored 57-37. Three runs a game is just not going to win them the AL East. Sammy Sosa's been the best hitter during the streak. Orioles fans waited all season for Sammy to come to life, and when he does the rest of the team goes into a tailspin.
Balls, Sticks and Stuff link to an interesting article on what makes a clutch hitter, psychologically that is. I tend to dismiss the "hypnotic susceptibility" portion of the argument since hypnotism is simply a parlor trick. But I'd remind you, some players have to do well in non-clutch situations to set up the clutch situations. So a better clutch hitter isn't necessarily a better ballplayer.
Update: Tom Durso went to the same game as part of a blogger's night at the ballgame. His post is here.
Prior to last Saturday, July 9, the Royals had a total of two game on the season in which they scored 10 runs or more. Now, for the second time in three games they've scored 12. They set a season high with a dozen run last Saturday vs. the Twins, and have equaled that this evening vs. the Tigers. They're still batting in the top of the 8th, so they may set a season high. Matt Stairs hit two home runs and drove in six so far.
At what point do the Phillies swap Rollins and Utley in the order? Rollins, with almost 3000 career at bats, pretty much proved he doesn't get on base much. His career OBA is .324, and this season it's below .320. Utley, finally given a chance to play every day, is posting a .380 OBA. He's 1 for 2 tonight with a walk to raise it to .384. Chase should be batting second behind Michaels. That does a better job of setting up the heart of the order, plus Michaels being on base will make good use of Utley's power.
Pudge Rodriguez just struck out with the bases loaded and nobody out in a game tied 3-3 in the 8th. He's upset, and he should be. Dmitri Young walked to load the bases. Politte looked wild. So instead of waiting to see if Politte can throw a strike, Ivan goes up swinging at the first pitch. That's one of my big pet peeves. Let the pitcher be wild! Instead, he swings at a pitch in his eyes, then at two more out of the strikezone. Monroe follows with a double play, and a chance to bury the White Sox goes by the board. Bad process, Ivan!
What happened to the Marlins bats?
Update: Sorry this post was wrong. I looked at the wrong team game by game log.
Smoltz's shutout tonight is the third blanking of the Marlins in the last 11 games. They've also scored over 10 runs twice in that period, but more than half of their games in that period resulted in two runs or less.
The Rockies are getting plenty of offense from their second basemen this season. With Barmes taking the collar bone break, Eddy Garabito picked up the slack. He was two for five tonight to lower his batting average to .410. When Barmes comes back, the Rockies might want to think about keeping the two of them together in the infield with Garabito at shortstop.
Offense is still down from last year, but the gap is closing.
Through 10 weeks | 2004 | 2005 |
---|---|---|
Runs Per Game | 9.6 | 9.2 |
Home Runs Per Game | 2.2 | 2.0 |
The smaller gap from April is do to a fall off in last year's numbers, rather than an increase in 2005 offense.
The Cubs offense is underperforming by about .4 runs per game this season. They've scored 255 runs, but the runs created formula puts them at 279 runs. That's the biggest negative difference in the majors. Why? The big culprit appears to be how they've hit with the bases loaded. The Cubs have been consistent with runners on, bases empty, or with men in scoring position, but with the bases juiced they fall off the table. While they don't have the worst BA in that situation, their lack of power (8 total bases) has led to only 15 RBI in that situation, the lowest in the majors. A few more hits with the bases loaded and they'd be right where they belong in scoring runs. Burnitz is the big culprit, going just 1 for 7 when the Cubs have loaded the bases for him.
As an aside, notice how batting averages for teams with the bases loaded are skewed toward the extremes? It's seems most teams are above .300 or below .220. Not a bell curve at all.
Is it time to move Jacque Jones to the top of the lineup? Based on his career stats, he's more of a power hitter than a guy who gets on base, so batting lower in the order would appear to be appropriate. But this season, Jones is drawing walks at a higher rate than usual, but the bottom of the Twins order is not driving him in. Coming into tonight he had only scored 18 runs despite reaching base 61 times by a hit or a walk. With two hits through four innings tonight, he now has a .390 OBA. That might be much better in front of Mauer and Morneau.
The Yankees have four players in the lineup tonight with slugging averages lower than their on-base averages. The Mariners have three. The league just isn't hitting for power.
Jason Rennie sends this article about the drop in home runs, something that Baseball Musings with which Baseball Musings readers are familiar. Does it have to do with steroids? It's higher than the 2002 level, the last year there was no testing. And it's the same as 1998, the year two players broke the 60 HR barrier. I think the evidence is skimpy.
Update: Fixed link. Jason also has a write up here.
The Oakland Athletics batters must be pretty bad if the Yankees staff can shut them out on consecutive days. Not even the combination of Brown and Gordon would give up a run this Sunday. Like the Moose yesterday, Brown didn't strike out many, didn't walk many, but the balls in play did not find holes. The A's are now batting .236 as a team and are scoring 3.5 runs per game as a team. Will any heads start to roll in the East Bay?
Brad Radke finishes up a 9-0 shutout of the Indians. Brad gave up just three hits and no walks. The Indians failed to make him work, as Radke averaged 13 pitches per inning.
What is wrong with Cleveland? At what point does Shapiro start making moves to change the roster? The team needs some kind of a shakeup; they should not be this bad. Could Eric Wedge be in trouble? This was the year the Indians were expected to compete.
Just how bad is the Oakland Athletics offense? They're being shutout through six innings against the Texas Rangers. This season, they've scored 10 runs vs. the Rangers in their previous three games. The Rangers come into the game with a 5.01 ERA; it's 5.22 against everyone except the A's.
A great job by the 1-2-3 hitters for the Brewers tonight. They reached base eleven times and scored nine runs. Brady Clark continues to be excellent from the leadoff spot, now sporting a .400 OBA and leading the team with 18 runs scored in 24 games.
The Giants scored eight runs today against the Pirates to earn a sweep in Pittsburgh. Alou used his young lineup today, as Niekro, Ellison and Torealba were all in the lineup. In 97 combined at bats, these three are hitting .371 with 36 hits, 7 walks and 15 extra-base hits. Their older counterparts, Snow, Grissom and Matheny are hitting .260 in a combined 208 at bats, with 54 hits, 13 walks and 17 extra-base hits. Maybe it's time to make a change.
The Toronto Blue Jays take 2 out of 3 from the New York Yankees with an 8-6 victory in the Bronx. The interesting thing about the Toronto offense this season is that most of the damage is coming from the bottom of the order. Today, the 5-9 hitters were 9 for 20 with seven runs scored and 3 RBI. If you look at Toronto by lineup slot for the season, you see the same thing.
My guess is that this is a good thing. I assume the Blue Jays have put the lineup together properly; it's great the bottom is picking up for the slumping top. But eventually you have to assume that these things will even out, which will still leave the Blue Jays with a pretty good offense.
It should also be noted that the Toronto bullpen threw four hitless innings to earn the win. It was a stellar outing from a less than stellar relief corps.
The Angels take a 1-0 lead in the top of the third. Figgins singles, steals second, then he goes for third and Guerrero hits the ball through the spot vacated by A-Rod. A perfect hit and run on the steal of third. Brown then gives up a double to Anderson that Sheffield bobbles and Guerrero scores. No error on the play, however, which I don't understand.
Greg Zaun hit his third homer of the season as the Blue Jays come back from a 3-0 deficit to take a 5-3 lead on the Devil Rays. Currently at .581, Zaun has the highest slugging percentage on the Blue Jays with 10 of his 20 hits going for extra bases. He's a 34 year-old catcher with a career .380 slugging percentage so don't expect this to last.
Update: Check out the comment on Josh Towers. The Blue Jays win 7-4.
Dan Agonistes reprints an article from the 1880's that explores the proper batting stance. The author finds that there are as many stances as there are good hitters. Some of the descriptions are pretty strange and are no longer seen on major league teams.
The Giants offense has hit a snag. After a torrid ten games of scoring (6.6 runs per game), they've only managed two runs a game over their last five contests. Edgardo was hitting .488 with a .560 OBA and a .756 slugging percentage through April 17. Since, the numbers are .176/.333/.176.
If you look at the Giants players over this season, Alfonzo is the only player who has combined the ability to get on base with power. With 2/3 of the lineup making a lot of outs, there's not going to be many on base for the sluggers to drive in.
Following up on a post from a week ago, scoring is still down about 1/2 a run from the same time last year:
First Nineteen Days | 2004 | 2005 |
---|---|---|
Games | 230 | 237 |
Runs | 2273 | 2205 |
Runs/Game | 9.9 | 9.3 |
Home Runs | 522 | 469 |
HR/Game | 2.3 | 2.0 |
is up closer to where it was last year, however. Through the first nineteen days of 2004, it was 64.2% (115/179). So far through 2005 it's 61.6 (106/172).
Has anyone noticed that the NL is putting up better offensive numbers than the AL this season?
2005 | AL | NL |
---|---|---|
Batting Average | .261 | .260 |
On Base Average | .326 | .331 |
Slugging Average | .410 | .416 |
The NL is getting on base more and hitting for more power, despite having a pitcher bat. This has to be the best reason I've ever seen for getting rid of the designated hitter.
I think a big reason for this is the AL #4 hitters aren't getting the job done. There are 9 teams with aggregate #4 hitters with OPS under .800. If you can't get a .350 OBA and a .450 slugging percentage out of your cleanup guy, you have a problem. And lots of AL teams find themselves in that situation.
The Tigers Orioles game features two leadoff men off to outstanding starts, starts out of line with their careers. Brandon Inge has two more hits tonight to raise his OBA to .407. Inge had a huge jump last year in OBA, and may be doing it again.
Brian Roberts is 1 for 2, and is OBA goes down to .533. You know you're having a great season when a good night lowers your average.
Yadier Molina is off to a terrible start. He's 1 for 26 to begin 2005, an .038 BA. He did draw a walk today to raise his OBA to .074. Most pitchers hit better than that. The Cardinals have an excellent offense, but they need a minimum amount of hitting from the catcher spot. Offense worse than an average pitcher is not going to keep the third Molina brother in the majors.
Age does not seem to be the problem with the fall off in offense as this graph shows. (Click on graph for a larger image.)
BA and OBA trend up until the mid-30's and are still good after that. They batters who stick around that long are the good ones. We'll see if this trend holds up as the year goes on.
Update: To clarify, this is a graph for this year only. Age is the seasonal age of players, that is, the age before July 1, 2005.
Maybe it took a year for the steroids to work out of the batters systems. Runs scored are significantly down from the same period last year:
First Twelve Days | 2004 | 2005 |
---|---|---|
Games | 136 | 133 |
Runs | 1381 | 1290 |
Runs/Game | 10.2 | 9.7 |
Home Runs | 302 | 266 |
HR/Game | 2.2 | 2.0 |
There's been a real lack of offense from the 3-4-5 hitters in the AL. I'm not sure what's going on; maybe there haven't been too many games in hitters parks yet. Maybe it's the lack of steroids. My guess thought, is that it has more to do with age. Remember this post showing how hitters in 2004 were among the oldest in the history baseball. The lack of a youth movement may be catching up to MLB.
Through four innings, the Washington Nationals have four hits; a single by Guillen, a double by Johnson, a triple by Wilkerson and a home run by Vidro. Vidro's was a solo shot, and the Nationals lead the Braves 1-0.
The San Diego Padres entered today leading the majors in on-base average with a .402 mark. Part of that, I'm sure, was starting the season in Coors, but looking up and down the lineup the only regular doing poorly in this stat is Phil Nevin. They're third in the majors in runs scored as well. With that kind of offense, they should be in for a very good year.
The Tribune-Review has an excellent article on the Pirates plate discipline. It shows that Lloyd McClendon has a very good handle on the problem:
"Plate discipline was one of the things I wanted to concentrate on," McClendon said. "On-base percentage is a tricky thing, but we had to work on it. If we can get the walks up, it means more guys on base and the more chance we have of scoring runs. You're able to turn that lineup over and bring your best hitters to the plate more often."...
"The most important thing we want our guys to understand is we need to get into better hitting counts," McClendon said as spring training was wrapping up. "When you get into better hitting counts, you become better hitters. If you look at the numbers in the NL the past few years, guys in 2-1 counts were hitting .340, when the count was 3-1 they were hitting .330.
"What we've tried to accomplish is to be more patient so we can get ourselves into better hitting counts."
Good stats on how the Pirates were very poor last season at getting into good hitting counts. As the first three games of the season demonstrate, it's easier to talk about than actually change the way players approach the game. It's up to Littlefield to find players who already practice selectivity.
Correction: Fixed link.
The Brewers mauled the Pittsburgh Pirates again today. They did one better than Monday, defeating the Pirates 10-2; that's 19-4 over two games. It's good to see that they're not only hitting (22 hits in two games) but drawing walks as well (9 combined). It makes you wonder if the homers will really fly when they get home to Miller Park.
Are the Athletics going to play little ball this year?
Today's first full-squad workout at Papago Park will have a different slant from past springs -- one that reflects the A's relative lack of power this year.For the next four to six days, instead of spending all their on-field hitting time taking batting practice against pitchers, the A's hitters will be concentrating on situational hitting half the time. The hitters will be split into two groups, according to manager Ken Macha. One group will hit off pitchers each day, while the other will be working on moving runners over, putting the ball in play with runners going, getting runners in from third with two strikes and bunting.
Those aren't areas in which Oakland has excelled recently. The A's attempts at hit-and-runs were disastrous last year, and just a few of their hitters can bunt well. But with Eric Chavez the only man on the team to have hit more than 23 home runs in a season, the A's are going to have to buck their old walk-and-whack ways and learn to manufacture runs.
"Guys understand this is not a team with four guys hitting 40 home runs," hitting coach Dave Hudgens said. "We've got to be more efficient. If we'd done that last year, we would have won more games."
Bill James made a study of efficiency in The Baseball Handbook 2005. Indeed, it shows the Athletics as the second worst team in terms of being efficient in scoring runs. However, they were very efficient in winning games, with only the Yankees doing better. (In other words, they scored fewer runs than they should have given their offense. But given the number of runs scored and allowed, they won more games than they should have, also.)
It also goes to show how difficult it is to pigeonhole the A's and their philosophy. It's not all about OBA and home runs. It's about what works. They've seen a deficiency, and they're taking time to correct it. I don't think they'll be bunting in the first inning too often, but when they do want to move a runner via a sacrifice or hit and run, they want it to work.
Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News is worried about the Rangers designated hitter.
Designated hitter, a problem all of last season, remains wide open. The Rangers used 10 players there, none more than 62 times. The club opted not to bring Brad Fullmer back, then failed to land free agent Carlos Delgado.So, they go to camp with the possibility of a platoon. Or they could still be chumming the waters for trades.
It's always amazing to me that teams can't come up with a designated hitter. There have to be a few players kicking around the minor leagues who can tear the cover off the ball but are a liability in the field. How many years did Edgar Martinez hang around the minors until the Mariners thought, "We have a position for someone who can hit but not field! We could have had a DH!" David Delluci is not the answer. DH isn't for the leftover hitter. It should be reserved for a great batter who can't play the field.
Balls, Sticks and Stuff links to an article by Alan Schwarz on patience at the plate. Schwarz discusses the problems with describing patience; is it the player who walks a lot, or the player who takes a lot of pitches, or the player who waits for his pitch?
Many years ago I had a discussion about this at ESPN which made me stop using the word patient to describe hitters. Whenever I start using "patient", I delete it and use "selective" instead. Describing someone as a patient hitter labels them as passive. Selective indicates that they are actively involved in searching for the right pitch to hit. Yes, there is patience involved, but the selective hitter isn't afraid to swing at the first pitch if it's the pitch for which he's looking. A subtle difference, but one that more accurately describes the process.
The Yankees look like they finally have something going. After Chavez hit a solo, opposite field HR in the top of the 3rd, Matsui, Clark and Cairo put together three consecutive hits to plate two runs. Jeter bunts Cairo to third (Jeter was bunting for a hit), so the Yankees have a chance to pick up another.
The Padres had a big win over the Giants tonight, 11-0. They struck out Bonds in the 2nd, then walked him until he came out of the game. The Padres got the leadoff man on in each of the first eight innings, and that runner scored in seven of those. Peavy and his relievers had no problems with the rest of the Giants lineup. There's no pop outside of Bonds.
The Red Sox put the shift on Palmeiro, with Reese to the right of 2nd base. Palmeiro just grounded an easy one through the empty shortstop position for an RBI. Palmeiro doesn't strike me as an extreme pull hitter.
Update: Timlin's not having a good night, but Javy Lopez is. Lopez drives one into deep right center for a double, long enough to score the slow Palmeiro from first. It's 6-1 Orioles, still in the 7th.
This article relates some worries about the Phillies offense so far this spring. And yes, it's way to early to get too worried about their lack of runs. But one thing did strike me as interesting:
One of Bowa's stated goals this season has been to cut down on strikeouts. So far, so bad. The Phillies have whiffed 92 times in 12 games."That's a lot," Bowa said. "And Thome's not playing. You expect home-run hitters to strike out a lot and that's all right, because you expect them to do a lot of damage, too."
Will Bowa be able to achieve this goal by the end of spring training? If not, will Bowa blame the players or his own poor coaching for the phailure?
Update: Link works now.
Douglas Calhoun sends this link to a Chicago-Sun Times article in which Dusty Baker gives his opinion on offensive walks. He doesn't like them.
Cubs manager Dusty Baker has some advice for young players who are encouraged by coaches and parents to wait out pitches and try to draw a walk: Swing away.''It's like when I see kids in Little League, the small kid, and they make them go up there and try to get a walk,'' Baker said. ''It's not any fun. It's called hitting; it's not called walking. Have you ever seen like a Top 10 walking? The name of the game is to hit.''
Just for the record, I have seen a top 10 walking. Baker then digs himself into a hole:
''Walks help, but you aren't going to walk across the plate,'' Baker said. ''You've got to hit across the plate. Who has been champions quite a bit the last seven, eight years?''Told the New York Yankees, Baker used them to prove his point.
''Now, have you ever heard the Yankees talk about on-base percentage and walks?'' he said.
I'd say yes. They've finished first in the AL in walks three times from 1998 on. 2001 Was the only year in which they drew less than 600 walks. After that they replace Brosius and Martinez with Ventura and Giambi, two players who draw a lot of walks. Dusty seems to know as much about offense as he does about heat.
Douglas comments:
I was particularly amused (and disappointed, as a Cubs fan) by the last quote. No, you might not hear about the Yankees taking walks. But I guess Dusty didn't bother to look up that the Yankees consistently lead the league in that category. Maybe he's just sticking up for his free-swinging players, but it would be nice if he would focus on improving deficiencies rather than relying on played-out, "old-school" macho attitudes.
Right on, Douglas.
Aaron Boone's 11th inning plate apperance last night is a good negative example of why I like Hideki Matsui so much. We've been hearing praise of Matsui as a situational hitter, such as this by his manager, Joe Torre:
"He knows how to hit," Torre said. "By that I mean he knows how to hit in situations. To me, that's more important than a lot of ability somebody else might have. ... He's pretty good at being able to detect a strike as opposed to 'I'm going to look for a fastball and swing at it no matter where it is.' He's a good situational guy."
Boone was just the opposite at the plate in the 11th. The Yankees had the bases loaded, 1 out and the Marlins brought the infield in. Matsui (and most great hitters) in this situation would wait for a pitch that he could handle. The pitcher can't afford to throw balls in this situation, since a walk gives the opposition the lead. Unless the first pitch is the phattest you've ever seen, you should take it. Give the pitcher a chance to put himself in the hole so you can force him into the strikezone. Boone swung at the first pitch and missed. Now Boone's in the hole. He swings at the 2nd pitch and fouls it off. Now he's really in the hole, and has to swing defensively.
And, I might remind, that these were full-force spin-me-around grand-slam swings. He wasn't just trying to meet the ball, he was trying to kill it. The infield was in! If he just meets the ball the likelihood is that the Yankees are going to score.
In the end, Boone saw seven pitches and swung at six of them, missing the last one. He did not adjust to the initial situation. He did not adjust during the AB. He did everything wrong. I was waiting for Willie Randolph to run down from the third base coaching box and yell at him to choke up on the bat. Matsui or Jeter or Posada or (choose your favorite Yankee other than Soriano) would have approached that situation differently. I can't say that the outcome would have been different, but I can the chance of a better outcome would have been a lot higher. I hope Aaron's been properly scolded about that event.
I was talking with my friend Jim Storer, and he remembered Gary Allenson bunting with the bases loaded and two out to win a game for the Red Sox. We had been at the game together. I found it. That tenth inning vs. the Angels on August 28th, 1982 and last night's twelfth inning are similar. Here's the 1982 game:
RED SOX 10TH: Yastrzemski struck out; Lansford singled to
Downing; Lansford stole second; Boggs was walked intentionally;
Lansford stole third and Boggs stole second; Nichols struck out;
MILLER BATTED FOR HOFFMAN; Miller was walked intentionally;
Allenson singled to DeCinces [Lansford scored, Boggs to third,
Miller to second]; 1 R, 2 H, 0 E, 3 LOB. Angels 6, Red Sox 7.
:
Athletics twelfth. Durazo walked on a full count. Chavez grounded into fielder's choice, second baseman Jackson to shortstop Garciaparra, Durazo out. Tejada grounded out, third baseman Mueller to first baseman Millar, Chavez to second. Hatteberg walked on a full count. Chavez stole third. On defensive indifference, Hatteberg to second. Long was intentionally walked. Hernandez bunt single to third, Chavez scored, Hatteberg to third, Long to second.
Runs: 1, Hits: 1
Theo's probably not old enough to remember that game. Jim and I were both impressed that Allenson pulled that off. (I believe someone once called Allenson "Slow as a speeding bureaucracy.") It's a great play, one we should see more often.
Devon Young writes:
Is it just me, or has Toronto really gone downhill since they traded away Shannon Stewart. I also just noticed Delgado has 117 RBI's. Which means he's really slowed down in the past month or so. Since Stewart was traded maybe? At the same time, it seems the Twins have been better since they aquired him. I'm thinking Stewart was a bigger peice of that offensive puzzle than the Blue Jays realized.
Stewart last played for the Blue Jays before the All-Star break, so that's a convinent point to look at Delgado and the Blue Jays 1-2 hitters. Before the All-Star break, Delgado had 97 RBI in 94 games. The 1-2 hitters for the Jays had a .351 OBA. Coming into today, Delgado had 20 RBI in 37 games post break, and the 1-2 hitters have a .327 OBA. The interesting thing is that Stewart was injured late May to late June, and the Blue Jays did just fine. I think the loss of Stewart has hurt the Jays, but Delgado's power has disappeared, also. His pre-break slugging percentage was .629, post .471. My guess is that Delgado has become the Barry Bonds of the AL, where they just walk him all the time.
The Diamondbacks continue to sputter on offense. They are in the 7th against the Marlins, and have only one run tonight. Shea Hillenbrand went deep for the only run of the game for the DBacks. Meanwhile, rookie Miguel Cabrera has driven in all three Marlins runs with a homer and a double. He's now slugging .553.
Last week, a reader wrote me to inquire about the Yankees DP's, specifically, did they ground into a lot of double plays. The answer is yes and no. If you look at GDP totals, the Yankees lead the AL, and are tied for 2nd in the majors with 88. However, the Yankees have had many more DP situations than any other team, due to the fact that they get on base so well. If you look at DP's as a percentage of situations, the Yankees have the 12th lowest percentage in the majors, at 10.9%.
The positive not about the Tigers is that they not only have hit into the fewest GDP's in the majors (51), but they have the 2nd lowest percentage per situation. One might expect, that with their anemic offense, Detroit would not have many chance to hit into DP's, and that is true. But at 9.8% of GDP per situation, only the Texas Rangers (9.3%) have done better. Part of this, of course, is that the Tigers strike out a lot (2nd in the AL), and you can't hit into a DP striking out. But, they don't kill rallies with DP's either.
Elphants in Oakland make a good case for being selective at the plate.
Yesterday, the Red Sox were 2nd in the majors in runs per game, trailing Toronto 6.24 to 6.07. Today, they lead Toronto 6.31 to 6.24.
One of the stars of Moneyball is Scott Hatteberg. Beane saw value where everyone else saw a washed up catcher. It just paid off for Beane again. Despite pitching okay, Zito looked like he was going to pick up his first loss at the hands of the Rangers, 1-0. But Urbina gave up a hit, a walk and a bunt single on a sacrifice attempt. He struck out Byrnes looking, but on a 1-0 pitch, Hatteberg got a fat one and ripped it into right for a bases clearing double. A's are up 3-0, batting now with two out, and Foulke will be coming in for a save. It's Urbina's fourth blown save of the year.
If you are watching the Yankee-Mets game, I hope you saw the two plate appearances by Jorge Posada and Juan Rivera. It says a lot about why Posada is a very good offensive player and Juan Rivera isn't.
Posada came in as a pinch hitter in the ninth. Benitez had walked the three left-handed batters he faced in the 9th, and got the two righties to fly out. Posada took six pitches and drew a walk. Only one of the called strikes was really a strike, and Posada was willing to wait for a pitch down the middle, or not swing.
Rivera then pinch hit for the pitcher. He took the first pitch for a ball, the second for a strike, then on the third pitch, he swung. He wasn't thinking about looking for his pitch, he was thinking about swinging. He swung at ball two, low and outside. He grounded weakly to second.
Benitez had problems finding the plate that inning. Eventually, he was going to have to throw a fast ball down the middle or lose the lead. Rivera did not have the disipline to wait for that pitch. Or if it never came, to draw the walk and drive in the go-ahead run that way. That is why there is a 120 point difference between the OBA of Jorge Posada and Juan Rivera.
In my previous post, I was writing about DHs, and I wondered about two things; were the DHs the best hitters on the team, and how much older were DHs than the rest of their fielding teammates. The following table tries to show each of these:
Hitting, 1987-2002 | Age per PA | OBA+ Slug |
---|---|---|
As ss | 25.5 | 0.695 |
As cf | 26.0 | 0.752 |
As 2b | 26.3 | 0.721 |
As rf | 26.4 | 0.798 |
As 1b | 26.7 | 0.823 |
As 3b | 26.8 | 0.755 |
As c | 26.9 | 0.709 |
As lf | 27.1 | 0.786 |
All DH | 29.7 | 0.781 |
Notice that the DH for the years in question is less offensively valued than the first baseman, the rightfielder and the leftfielder. DHs should be doing at least as well as the first basemen. Secondly, look at the age discrepency between the DH and the leftfielder. DHs are more than a year and a half older than the oldest position player! Ballplayers peak around age 27, and that (not surprising) is the age of the oldest fielding position. Yet DHs are nearly 30 years old, approaching the age where their production will be falling off.
So while I don't mind the concept of the DH, I don't like the implementation at all. Instead of putting young, stud hitters who can't field at DH, old, formerly good hitters are inserted in the slot. Instead of leaving baseball because they can no longer field, they are kept around at inflated salaries taking up a slot a younger, better and cheaper player could be using.
So why not a 22 year-old DH? I think it's the way clubs perceive players. If you can't field when you are 22, you can't be a real ball player. It's okay for your skills to decline as you age, but they want you to have the skills to begin with. But why not bring up the kid you can't field? There's always going to be some other 22 year-old waiting to take his place. Instead of paying millions to some slugger in his late 30's, spend the money on a real fielder, and pay some kid near the minimum. It makes sense to me. What do others think?
Update: I sometimes forget that not all readers of this site are as versed in the Jamesian way of thinking about baseball as I am. The author of binarytoybox.com didn't quite understand what I was driving at in this post, and that's my fault for not being clear. Let me try again.
In the first Bill James Abstract I owned, the 1983 edition, Bill discusses the defensive spectrum. This is what it looks like:
P SS C 2B CF 3B RF LF 1B DH
The farther to the left you are on this spectrum, the more your defense is valued. That is because these are tough defensive positions to play. The more you move to the right, the more your offense is valued. This is why the Yankees were not afraid to replace Tino Martinez with Jason Giambi. If you look at the OPS column in the table above, you see that the ranking of OPS almost exactly matches the defensive spectrum. RF is better than LF is OPS, but that may be due to more leadoff types being used in left field over the last 15 years. But the big discrepency is DH. Instead of having the highest OPS by position, DH is fourth.
My argument is that teams have a position where all the player has to worry about is offense, and yet they don't go out to find a player who's only value is great offense to fill it. Edgar Martinez is what a DH should be, and he didn't become a full-time DH until he was 30 years old. Edgar didn't get fully out of the minors until he was 26. I'm not sure why, but I bet because no one thought he was a great third baseman. But if the Mariners had realized when he was 21 that all he was going to be was a hitter, he could have been a 21-year-old DH who hit like crazy, took pitches that wore down the opposing pitcher, and be flirting with 3000 hits. Take your aging slugger, and trade him to someone who thinks aging sluggers are valuable. If you are going to use a DH, fill it with some stud with hand of iron and a .380 OBA and a .500 slugging percentage.
Nate Cornejo has given up just one hit, but two earned runs. Toy maker Milton Bradley hit a solo HR, and cereal tycoon Coco Crisp drew a walk, stole 2nd, was sacrificed to third, and scored on a ground out.
David Brinkley passed away yesterday. The Huntley-Brinkley report was the first news show I watched regularly. I always enjoyed his delievery, and his wry sense of humor.
Good night, David.
The Mariners beat the Phillies for the 2nd time. The score was 7-2. One reason the Mariners have been so successful is the top of the offense. Looking at the boxscore, the OBA's of the top five hitters are .371, .374, .386, .394 and .386. That's a lot of players getting on base, and the more they do that, the more opportunities they have to get on base. OBA is like an interest rate; runs go up exponentially with OBA, so it's best to stick your highest on-base players at the top of the order so they get more chances to get on base, and score more runs.
The Toronto Blue Jays come into today tied for third in runs scored per game. They're doing everything well. They are hitting (.289 BA), they are getting on base (151 walks), and they are hitting for power (117 extra base hits, most in the AL). Unfortunately, their pitchers are letting the Jays opponents hit almost as well. The Blue Jays need a couple of good pitchers to contend. Their fellow countrymen, the Expos could use a little more offense and have good pitching. Should an intra-country trade be in the works?
Quick quiz. Entering today, three teams have four players with 20 RBI. Can you name them?
I saw this list in my daily STATS, Inc. newsletter today.
Most outs this year Carl Crawford 111 Vernon Wells 110 Juan Pierre 110 Miguel Tejada 109 Nomar Garciaparra 106 Pat Burrell 105 Shannon Stewart 104 Jimmy Rollins 103 Juan Encarnacion 102 Johnny Damon 100 Alex Sanchez 100
It's an interesting list. At lot of leadoff types who don't have great OBA's (Johnny Damon), or leadoff men who play every day (Shannon Stewart). The outs they consume contract the offense for the rest of the team; they're taking AB away from Manny Ramirez and Jim Thome and Carlos Delgado.
The Cardinals offense continues to roll. The 3-7 hitters in tonight's lineup are all slugging over .500, and they are a combined 7 for 15 tonight.
Just looking at the Texas-Toronto box score. Through 6 innings tonight, the top of the Texas order has the following stats:
Batter | OBA | Slug |
---|---|---|
Everett | .409 | .756 |
Blalock | .440 | .639 |
A. Rodriguez | .443 | .676 |
Looks more like the heart of the order than the top. Palmeiro and Gonzalez should have a ton of RBI this year.
In general, teams that leave a lot of men on base are teams that have good offenses. In order to leave men on base, you have to be able to get men on base, and that usually means you are scoring runs.
But the Reds today were ridiculous. They left 18 men on base. That's the highest in the NL this year (TB left 21 on base on April 1st). They were 1 for 15 with men in scoring position! That shouldn't be surprising, since they came into today with a .201 BA with men in scoring position, tied with Arizona for lowest in the majors. Despite all this, they scored 7 runs and won the game! The scored two on a HR with a man on first, two on fielder's choices, and two on bases loaded walks, including the run that won the game. Get men on, and you will score.
Watching the Yankee game, I just saw something unusual. Nick Johnson on first, 1 out, Johnson tries to steal and almost gets picked off. Johnson is not a good basestealer. A couple of pitches later, Johnson does take off, and Giambi takes the ball the opposite way for a hit and run single. Not the two players I would expect to execute that play.
The Brewers offense is a bit better this year; 4.2 runs/game vs. 3.9 runs per game last year. One reason is that they now have 1/2 an offense. The 1-2-3-4 hitters are doing what they are supposed to be doing, getting on base and hitting for power. By grouping their best hitters together at the top, the Brewers can get the most runs from their talent. Tonight, for example, the 1-2 hitters have each scored a run, and the 3-4 hitters have each driven in a run.
Who would have thought that Travis Lee would make such a difference to a club. He last played on April 13th.
DRays | Through 4/13 | 4/14 Through 4/21 |
---|---|---|
Record | 5-7 | 1-6 |
Batting Average | .295 | .228 |
Runs per Game | 5.3 | 3.6 |
The first three hitters in the Chicago White Sox lineup tonight all have OBA's over .400. The leadoff hitter this year has be D'Angelo Jimenez. He's kicked around the majors for a few years, but someone in the White Sox organization saw his potential as a leadoff man and put him in the top slot. He's responded great so far, with a .452 OBA, and 12 extra base hits to put his slugging percentage at .662.
It looks like the Yankees are not going to threaten the record for most runs scored in the first 20 games of a season. They currently have 134. The record from 1901 to 2002 is:
Team | Runs Scored, First 20 Games |
---|---|
Detroit Tigers 1993 | 158 |
NY Giants 1930 | 154 |
St. Louis Cardinals 2000 | 151 |
Colorado Rockies 1997 | 150 |
Chicago White Sox 2000 | 149 |
However, the Yankees are very close to their record for most runs scored in the team's first 20 games:
Team | Runs Scored, First 20 Games |
---|---|
New York Yankees 1951 | 136 |
New York Yankees 1932 | 136 |
New York Yankees 1936 | 134 |
New York Yankees 1939 | 133 |
New York Yankees 1934 | 132 |
I hate to keep harping on how bad the Tigers offense is performing, but I was just looking at the list of teams sorted by runs scored and this caught my eye:
Team, 2003 | Runs Scored |
---|---|
Tigers | 34 |
Diamondbacks | 68 |
Mets | 69 |
They've scored half as many runs as the 2nd lowest scoring team in the league. And exactly 100 less than the major league leaders, the NY Yankees.
With another six runs so far tonight, the Cardinals continue to lead the majors in runs per game. They're scoring more than the Red Sox or Yankees without a DH. They've had 10 hits tonight, six for extra bases. Their team slugging percentage is over .500. This may turn out to be their best offensive team since 1930.
The Pirates miss Brian Giles. They've now played 7 games without him, and have only scored 17 runs in those games. This Pirate team is improved over last year, but the injury to Giles shows just how sensitive the offense is to his presence. The team is 2-5 without their star.
The Cub Reporter has the numbers on the last three games. What's interesting is that they have scored this many in three games twice in the last six years, but it's been since 1961 that they've scored this many and won all three games against the same team!
Brent Mayne is leading the majors in OPS with a 1.318 mark. He has a .512 OBA and a .806 slugging percentage. His career OBA is .338 and his career slugging percentage is .359. He'll be thirty-five on Saturday, so I don't think he's made a breakthrough. It's a nice surprise, however, and he's certainly helped KC get off to a good start. Just don't expect it to last.
The Braves continue to slump offensively. Only 2 runs so far tonight. Luckily, the pitching has picked them up lately. Horacio Ramirez has thrown six shutout innings so far against the Expos.
The Diamondbacks are having a great day at the plate. All the starters, except Counsell, have at least one hit, and 7 have scored a run.
The four through nine hitters in the Cleveland Indians lineup today are all batting under .200. Only Brandon Phillips has any secondary stats, with a .400 slugging percentage. Times have changed in Cleveland.
Earlier today I wrote about how Seattle was great on getting on base, but wasn't providing the power to drive in runs. Tonight, the first four men reached either by a walk, error or HBP. Then the hits started coming. After Cameron made an out, Seattle has 4 straight hits, including a double. It's 6-2 Seattle with one out in the first.
Craig Biggio is 0 for 3 tonight, and his OBA is now below .300 at .292. After years of getting on at a rate better than .380, Biggio fell off to .330 last year. He's only drawn 1 walk so far, and unless he can do a better job reaching first, the Astros are going to have to rethink using him at the top of the order. Richard Hidalgo would be my choice to replace him at leadoff.
Chan Ho Park got a win against the Mariners last night. His line was interesting. In 5 innings he only gave up 3 hits, but he walked 7. If you look at the lineup the Mariners put on the field last night, you get an idea of why Park could be that wild and win. Look at the OBA and Slugging in this boxscore. Suzuki, Boone, Olerud, McLemore and Cirillo all have on base averages higher than their slugging percentages. This means that they are getting many more walks than extra bases on their hits. So the Mariners right now have half an offense. They get on base, but they don't get the hits (and long hits) to move those base runners around.
Now, if I had to have a problem with my offense, this would be it. There are a number of good hitters on this team, and eventually they will get their hits. If you keep putting men on base, they will come around to score. But it also shows that just walking all the time isn't enough.
After doubling in two runs to pull the Cubs within 1, Alou made a base running blunder and was caught off 2nd after a lineout to right by Karros. Those DP's don't show up in the GDP numbers, but they have the same effect. Pirates lead 3-2 in the top of the 5th.
The Cubs just grounded into their 16th DP of the year, which leads the majors by four. Double plays effectively reduce your on-base percentage. The Cubs have a very good OBA of .376 coming into today. But if you take into account the DP's it is effectively reduced to .333. Overall, they are 4th in OBA, but if you adjust for GDP's, they are 11th.
It's early in the season, and his career has been short, but Ty Wigginton is showing signs of being a good ballplayer. He's doing a good job of getting on base, as shown by his 9 runs scored (including the HR tonight) despite batting in front of the bottom of the order. At some point, the Mets need to move him to the top of the order. He's probably better than Cedeno at getting on base. With Alomar 1st and Wigginton 2nd, the Mets heart of the order will have lots of chances to drive in runs. (As I write this, Ty just doubled. He may score again.)
Update: Mets load the bases after scoring a run, no outs, and Josh Beckett gets it together and strikes out Glavine, Cedeno and Alomar to get out of the jam. Beckett has 5 K through 4 innings, but is down 2-0.
Two additions to the Marlins, Juan Pierre and Ivan Rodriguez are paying off. Pierre is getting on base and scoring (8 runs in 9 games) and Rodriguez is hitting and driving runs in (12 RBI in 8 games). Set the table and clean it off. :-)
The Cubs offense is in high gear. The G-men, Grudzielanek and Gonzalez are nearly unstoppable getting on base. Gonzalez already has eight doubles! It's a great start, but I don't think it will last. Grudzielanek has a career .326 OBA, and Alex S. Gonzalez is at .307, both with long enough careers that those numbers are meaningful. The Cubs need to ride this hot streak as long as possible, because if they revert to the mean, Sammy Sosa isn't going to have many runners to drive in.
In looking at the boxscore for the White Sox-Indians game, I notice that the only two starters who are hitting are Bradley and Vizquel. As of the end of the game, the other seven starters all have batting averages under .200. They now have the 2nd lowest BA in the majors at .196, with only the Tigers at .133 being lower. They have the third lowest runs per game in the majors at 2.83. The Indians had numerous opportunities with runners in scoring position today, but were only 2 for 13 in those situations. The table setters are getting the job done, but no one is picking them up.
The Yankees have an OPS (on base average + slugging percentage) of 1.060. If an individual player has that kind of OPS, he's a superstar. And of course, they're doing this without Jeter. For a team to put up that number, even over six games, is very impressive. The Cubs (.907) and the Cardinals (.901) are also off to great offensive starts. The Yankees, of course, go outside for the first time today, and it's cold. They'll be facing a good pitcher in Joe Mays, so that lofty number may be deflated some.
The Tigers were 3 for 29 today, and were shutout for the 2nd time in 5 games. In the other three game, they've score 1 run twice and 2 runs once. They have 16 hits in 147 AB, a .109 BA. The team OBA and Slugging Pct. are both under .200.
I wrote kiddingly in my AL Central Preview that I thought the Tigers coaching staff could outhit the current team. I didn't think I would be right.
Update: Just doing a little checking. I'm back to 1987, and this is the fewest runs (4) scored in the first five games in that time span.
Team | Year | Runs, First Five Games |
---|---|---|
Tigers | 2003 | 4 |
Orioles | 1988 | 5 |
Padres | 1988 | 7 |
Rangers | 1988 | 7 |
Daniel Shamah writes:
Bobby Valentine made possibly the most intelligent comment I've heard in a long time on Baseball Tonight this evening.Discussing Trachsel's two pickoffs against the Cubs, Valentine noted that he felt that baserunning has gotten poorer recently. He then proceeded to say that until sabermetricians (his word!!) figure out a metric to analyze the offensive value of someone moving from first to third on a single, or someone advancing on a groundout, we'll never REALLY know how valuable good baserunning is. He described it, hesistently, as a fundamental (he even said that he hates the phrase "baseball fundamentals") part of baseball, and there are too many teams that just run themselves out of rallies, and that it was nothing more than his baseball instincts that suggested to him that too many teams are guilty of bad baserunning.
I literally watched my television agape. Valentine?! You know, the first few times I saw I figured ESPN hired him because he's a recognizable name and he's very personable on the air. But after that bit, I don't know...sabermetrics?! WOW.
Valentine is a smart guy. I always thought his weakness as a manager was his own ego. That actually works for television; you have to have supreme confidence in yourself to put your thoughts in front of millions of people every night.
As for baserunning, I don't know if it's any worse than it's ever been. Certainly, defenses have adjusted with pitchers going to slide steps. The running game has also degraded because in eras of high power, the SB becomes less valuable, and therefore, it's not used as much. Why risk stealing 2nd if the guy at the plate can jack the ball out of the park?
As for Sabrmetricians putting a value on going from first to third, Bobby's a bit behind the times here. I'd point him to The Hidden Game of Baseball by Thorn and Palmer, published in the 1980's. They have a chart in that book showing the run potential for each base/out situation. You can use that to calculate the value of any advancement or any 1-run strategy. In general, not making an out is much more important than gaining a base.
Sorry, Tigers is just too strong a word for this team. The Tigers, after 3 games, have 10 hits in 90 AB. They drawn 2 walks. They tried one steal but were thrown out. They have two extra base hits, a solo HR by Eric Munson and a double by Infante. That's a .111 BA, a .130 OBA and a .156 slugging pct. This team would make Mario Mendoza look like Babe Ruth.
Tiger fans, it won't be that bad all year. These players have made a major league team, after all. But it sure doesn't give you any hope for an improvement this year.
This SF Gate recap points out that the Giants offense is scoring very well despite Bonds not hitting much against the Padres.
Yankees have 15 hits through 6 innings, 9 for extra bases (7 doubles, 2 HR).
Orioles offense performing more like I thought they would. 1-4 hitters are 0 for 9 with a walk. Cleveland leads 2-1 in the 6th.
Pirates are getting on base. They've had 6 men on in the first two innings, and hacker Randall Simon connected for a 3 run HR. Austin Kearns has gone deep for the Reds to make the score 3-2. I expect the Griffey-Kearns-Dunn heart of the order to put up big numbers this year.
Update: Griffey goes deep, too. 3-3.
Rey Ordonez is up with a man on and a chance to win the game.
Update: Woodard strikes out Ordonez.
Travis Lee has homered to bring the DRays back within 1 of the Red Sox. I'm keeping my eye on Lee this year, and so far, so good.
A walk and two singles set up the first Diamondbacks run of the season. Odalis Perez having a rough first inning.
I called them pathetic, but the Orioles pounded out 15 hits today in 13 innings. They did, however, only draw 1 walk, so they are no Cubbies.
With Alex Rodriguez's HR, everyone in the Texas lineup has reached base tonight.
Sticks to the company line and puts the ball in play up the middle. I love the little guy.
A Texas Ranger with a Texas Leaguer! Everett scores the first run on a broken bat single by Juan Gone.
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