Peter Abraham examines why the hot stove is so cold. Unlike last year, we don't have the drama of the A-Rod opt-out upstaging the World Series to keep us entertained until the winter meetings start.
Bruce Markusen explores John Ellis's 1972 In Action card. Ellis shares the card with Hall of Famer Harmon Killebrew. The card looked familar, and 1972 was one of the few years I bought cards. I looked through the pile, and sure enough there's not only the In Action card, but John Ellis's regular card as well. Thanks for the memory!
Monday, you see, is MLB's arbitration deadline. By the end of the day, the Yanks must decide whether or not to offer arbitration to Andy Pettitte. This is a rather complicated decision, and it could play itself out in a variety of scenarios.
The easiest option -- and perhaps the most beneficial to the Yanks -- would be to offer arbitration to Andy Pettitte and hope that he heads to Los Angeles. As Mike noted earlier this week, the Yanks would land the 17th slot in the draft and a supplemental pick as well. But because the Dodgers would be giving up a fairly coveted spot, they may not be so keen to sign Pettitte if the Yanks offer arbitration.
Of course, if the Yankees do offer Andy arbitration, he may accept the offer, and New York ends up spending more than they wanted on Andy.
In general, it was a very good move for Pettitte to at least speak with the Dodgers. He held no leverage against New York until he did so.
"We are not throwing 2009 to the wind and saying, 'Well, we'll win again sometime in the future.' We know we need to win, and sooner rather than later, and we're going to show up, work hard, prepare, teach and go out to win every game" Huntington said. "But, if we can trade a veteran player and it brings us 12-18 years of control instead of one or two, and we don't take that large of a step backward, that's just good business."
And that is why, according to multiple sources, no fewer than of the Pirates' five veterans -- shortstop Jack Wilson, second baseman Freddy Sanchez, first baseman Adam LaRoche, reliever John Grabow and catcher Ronny Paulino -- already have been part of trade talks, to some degree or other.
To me, this is an approach to keep payroll low. I'd rather see the Pirates pick their weak link position and improve it as much as possible. Looking at the team stats by position, they can pick third base, shortstop or second base as their area of improvement for this season. Even just bringing one of those position above league average will help them score more runs. Given that the Pirates have such a log way to go, addressing two of those is probably needed. Just trading veterans to get more years of control, however, is not the way to build a winner unless the players acquired are good, too. Jack Wilson isn't going to bring much.
Thank you to all the readers of Baseball Musings. The site is seven seasons old, and would not have last this long without your support. Thanks for your donations, your comments and your emails. Best wishes for a wonderful day with your family and friends!
Boston already has veteran Japanese pitchers Daisuke Matsuzaka and Hideki Okajima on its roster, and Tazawa reportedly has expressed a desire to be a teammate of Matsuzaka. The two attended different high schools in Yokohama.
Will this open the floodgates? If Tazawa becomes a successful major league pitcher, MLB teams will step up their wooing of Japanese amateur free agents. I hope some agreement is reached that prevents this from causing the downfall of the Japanese major leagues.
I hope everyone traveling on this busy holiday has a safe trip and spends many wonderful hours with family and friends! I brought my daughter home yesterday, and the drive took only twice as long as usual.
Yale suspends the YPMB over obscenities written on a prop during the halftime show at Harvard:
Adding insult to the injury of Harvard's 10-0 defeat Saturday in The Game, which was held in Boston, Yale University's director of bands, Thomas C. Duffy, suspended the marching band Monday because of a "completely inappropriate and highly offensive" prop used during the halftime show, according to the Yale Daily News.
The newspaper quoted an e-mail Duffy sent to band members: "I was personally embarrassed and offended, and professionally compromised. I am suspending the Yale Precision Marching Band from all activities and performances, effective as of this very moment."
It was unclear what element of the band's prank crossed the line, but The Daily News said the band used as a prop "a graffiti-covered replica of the Berlin Wall, (which) was the centerpiece of a halftime show that portrayed Harvard as a Communist empire."
Friends, this is what happens when you send your children to a safety school.
Although Clemens helped raise millions of dollars for charities associated with the event, the Giff Nielsen Day of Golf for Kids was held Nov. 11 at Houston's Shadow Hawk Golf Club without him.
"Roger Clemens is no longer affiliated with the tournament," said Nielsen, a Houston broadcaster. "We decided we would go our separate ways until his off-field stuff is settled.
"I approached him, and as we talked, we reached a mutual agreement that we would put our relationship on hold. He was good about it. He said 'I agree with the decision."'
It's amazing how far Roger has fallen. He either should have kept his mouth shut after the Mitchell report, or come completely clean and asked forgiveness. He's taken a path that just dragged him down.
The lawsuit against the Marlins new park delayed the opening one year. It's now slated to open in 2012. It's also possible that the delay saved money, however. Fuel costs are now lower, and interest rates for qualified borrowers are lower, also. Yes, the Marlins lose a year of revenue, but the stadium may actually be cheaper to build.
SB: You're obviously a very statistically-inclined manager. How do you think that gives you an advantage over managers that aren't as progressive?
MA: I want to win. More than being statistically-inclined, I'm very open minded. If someone can show me things that I didn't already know, I am willing to change. I'm not stubborn. If the statistical evidence shows I'm wrong, and it helps me and my team win baseball games, then I would be a fool not to listen.
SB: Looking back, have there been any decisions that you made that perhaps you wouldn't have if you had not been so aware of sabermetrics?
MA: I would have bunted less when I managed in the minors. I still would have had the minor leaguers run, because winning isn't the most important thing down there, and most players have the green light to work on their baserunning skills.
I hope the Nationals someday get Manny talent he can exploit. He seems like the kind of manager I'd like to put in charge of my team.
The Blog Reader Project is conducting surveys. I would appreciate you taking the time to fill it out, since it will help direct advertising to this site. Thanks very much!
Dan Wakamatsu let go two of the Mariners coaches, including pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre. That appears to pave the way for Seattle to hire former Atheltics and Mets pitching coach Rick Peterson.
"There is sincere and mutual interest (with the Orioles)," Braunecker is quoted as saying. "We're not here to waste people's time or our time. We don't need to create a false market for A.J. Burnett."
With Burnett's injury history, he may be perceived to be a cheaper option than Sabathia. That may actually push his value up, as more teams are willing to chase him.
I had the pleasure of meeting Mike DiGiovanna at a social gathering at Jim Storer's house last night. Mike is the Angels beat writer for the Los Angeles Times. Like the rest of us there, he's a native Connecticutian. We had a good time talking about growing up in Connecticut, and of course baseball. I hope to have Mike on the Baseball Musings Radio Show soon.
"The Pirates are committed to creatively adding talent to our organization," Pirates general manager Neal Huntington said Monday. "By adding these two young men, the Pirates are pleased to not only add two prospects to our system but also hope to open a pathway to an untapped market. We are intrigued by Patel's arm strength and Singh's frame and potential."
Neither pitcher has taken the mound in a game situation, no doubt a first for a Pirates prospect. They have pitched in scrimmages against junior college competition.
Wow. The Pirates really have nothing to lose, and this will give them some much needed publicity. I did not see how much money the young men received, but their lives have certainly been turned upside down. I like the way they are learning English:
Patel and Singh are learning English, most of which they have picked up from watching ESPN's Baseball Tonight and by taking online classes.
That reminds me of the two brothers in Better Off Dead who learned English by watching Howard Cosell. I hope these two young men don't end up sounding like John Kruk. :-)
First impression, he has that look, that glow, that the preternaturally gifted all seem to have. His handshake was impressive, to say the least. He did seem normal sized, not huge, but his hands were large, solid, and seemed very strong.
He was genuinely friendly, and I felt pretty great getting to meet him in person. Thanks for being such an approachable star, Tim.
I've noticed the hands on other players I've met. They all seem to have big mitts.
The judge in the Barry Bonds perjury case dropped three charges and merged another, dropping the total from 15 to 11. I guess that makes the odds of winning a little better for Barry, but the prosecution needs only to get one to stick to walk away with a win. Not even baseball players, however, are considered successful with an .091 BA.
But although a major-league source confirmed that Matsui did have some interest in playing in the WBC, Matsui never told Hara (or any other Japanese player) that he would do so. Always diplomatic in his relationship with the Yankees, Matsui wouldn't put his team in a bad spot by putting his desires against the club's.
Nevertheless, by having Cashman make the announcement -- teams have more authority on rehabilitating players than they do regarding healthy players -- Matsui should receive less heat from his home fans than he did three years ago. This time, in other words, Matsui has an excuse.
It's too bad, Matsui would make them a better team.
...wait, what...why...i can accept not wanting to give lowe a five-year deal, assuming that is what it will take to get him...but to be bullied out of the bidding, because the big, bad Red Sox and Yankees are in the mix, well that's just sad...and i hope it is not true...
Indeed. With a new stadium providing a higher revenue stream, the Mets should be right in the mix with the big guns from the American League.
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2008, Defense Behind Pitchers Permalink
As we know, a pitcher's ERA can be influenced by the defense behind him. This posts explores which pitchers were helped or hurt by their defenses based on how well fielders turned balls in play into outs based on how difficult they were off the bat.
Team PMR, 2008, Defense Behind Pitchers, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only
Pitcher
Team
In Play
Actual Outs
Predicted Outs
DER
Predicted DER
Ratio
Chien-Ming Wang
NYY
306
215
200.92
0.703
0.657
107.01
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Bos
449
327
306.07
0.728
0.682
106.84
Jesse Litsch
Tor
569
407
382.14
0.715
0.672
106.51
Tim Wakefield
Bos
539
405
382.33
0.751
0.709
105.93
Ryan Rowland-Smith
Sea
366
262
249.06
0.716
0.680
105.20
Justin Duchscherer
Oak
409
308
292.97
0.753
0.716
105.13
CC Sabathia
Cle
334
228
217.23
0.683
0.650
104.96
Tim Hudson
Atl
435
317
302.69
0.729
0.696
104.73
Scott Kazmir
TB
378
277
264.57
0.733
0.700
104.70
Roy Oswalt
Hou
617
436
416.75
0.707
0.675
104.62
Jeremy Sowers
Cle
409
279
266.73
0.682
0.652
104.60
CC Sabathia
Mil
353
246
235.49
0.697
0.667
104.46
Armando Galarraga
Det
525
391
375.29
0.745
0.715
104.19
Greg Smith
Oak
578
423
406.63
0.732
0.704
104.03
John Lackey
LAA
469
329
316.59
0.701
0.675
103.92
Kyle Kendrick
Phi
560
380
365.69
0.679
0.653
103.91
Glen Perkins
Min
520
357
343.77
0.687
0.661
103.85
Ryan Dempster
ChC
572
406
391.16
0.710
0.684
103.80
Shaun Marcum
Tor
427
317
305.52
0.742
0.716
103.76
Paul Byrd
Cle
446
319
307.48
0.715
0.689
103.75
Brian Moehler
Hou
509
356
343.33
0.699
0.675
103.69
R.A. Dickey
Sea
374
263
253.88
0.703
0.679
103.59
Joe Saunders
LAA
623
445
429.72
0.714
0.690
103.56
Dustin McGowan
Tor
337
228
220.26
0.677
0.654
103.51
Adam Wainwright
StL
404
289
279.63
0.715
0.692
103.35
Josh Beckett
Bos
492
333
322.69
0.677
0.656
103.19
Jorge Campillo
Atl
490
347
336.39
0.708
0.687
103.16
Ben Sheets
Mil
589
417
404.45
0.708
0.687
103.10
John Lannan
Was
560
401
389.21
0.716
0.695
103.03
Zach Miner
Det
385
276
268.08
0.717
0.696
102.95
Kevin Slowey
Min
480
340
330.37
0.708
0.688
102.92
Vicente Padilla
Tex
524
356
345.93
0.679
0.660
102.91
Jake Peavy
SD
459
331
322.53
0.721
0.703
102.63
Jeremy Guthrie
Bal
587
428
417.45
0.729
0.711
102.53
Cole Hamels
Phi
635
464
453.13
0.731
0.714
102.40
David Bush
Mil
567
422
413.33
0.744
0.729
102.10
Paul Maholm
Pit
621
437
428.22
0.704
0.690
102.05
Jeff Francis
Col
469
321
314.83
0.684
0.671
101.96
John Danks
CWS
569
396
388.39
0.696
0.683
101.96
Scott Baker
Min
497
354
347.21
0.712
0.699
101.96
Roy Halladay
Tor
713
501
491.48
0.703
0.689
101.94
Matt Garza
TB
560
399
391.43
0.712
0.699
101.93
Micah Owings
Ari
312
220
215.84
0.705
0.692
101.93
Johan Santana
NYM
668
476
467.22
0.713
0.699
101.88
Scott Feldman
Tex
488
344
337.73
0.705
0.692
101.86
Oliver Perez
NYM
527
380
373.11
0.721
0.708
101.85
Derek Lowe
LAD
644
453
444.85
0.703
0.691
101.83
Scott Olsen
Fla
640
463
454.69
0.723
0.710
101.83
Felix Hernandez
Sea
577
391
384.12
0.678
0.666
101.79
Doug Davis
Ari
457
303
298.15
0.663
0.652
101.63
Edwin Jackson
TB
582
401
394.74
0.689
0.678
101.59
Dan Haren
Ari
610
421
414.60
0.690
0.680
101.54
Aaron Cook
Col
725
489
481.78
0.674
0.665
101.50
Kyle Lohse
StL
650
453
446.33
0.697
0.687
101.49
Jeff Suppan
Mil
589
407
401.18
0.691
0.681
101.45
Hiroki Kuroda
LAD
598
418
412.03
0.699
0.689
101.45
Dana Eveland
Oak
519
351
346.09
0.676
0.667
101.42
Jered Weaver
LAA
513
355
350.05
0.692
0.682
101.41
Todd Wellemeyer
StL
579
419
413.37
0.724
0.714
101.36
Carlos Zambrano
ChC
570
404
398.66
0.709
0.699
101.34
Jamie Moyer
Phi
625
437
431.36
0.699
0.690
101.31
Jon Garland
LAA
684
462
456.10
0.675
0.667
101.29
Braden Looper
StL
653
453
447.51
0.694
0.685
101.23
Miguel Batista
Sea
379
257
254.22
0.678
0.671
101.09
Jair Jurrjens
Atl
589
401
397.07
0.681
0.674
100.99
Matt Cain
SF
630
436
431.93
0.692
0.686
100.94
Kevin Correia
SF
382
248
245.75
0.649
0.643
100.91
Gavin Floyd
CWS
625
450
446.51
0.720
0.714
100.78
Javier Vazquez
CWS
598
405
401.92
0.677
0.672
100.77
Tim Lincecum
SF
562
385
382.12
0.685
0.680
100.75
Jason Marquis
ChC
554
390
387.25
0.704
0.699
100.71
Aaron Harang
Cin
552
379
376.37
0.687
0.682
100.70
Jose Contreras
CWS
402
280
278.09
0.697
0.692
100.69
Johnny Cueto
Cin
500
344
341.79
0.688
0.684
100.65
Joel Pineiro
StL
505
342
339.90
0.677
0.673
100.62
Brad Penny
LAD
311
212
211.06
0.682
0.679
100.45
Jon Lester
Bos
632
438
436.20
0.693
0.690
100.41
Boof Bonser
Min
382
249
248.24
0.652
0.650
100.31
Greg Maddux
SD
511
360
359.16
0.705
0.703
100.23
Aaron Laffey
Cle
316
217
216.67
0.687
0.686
100.15
Manny Parra
Mil
499
322
321.73
0.645
0.645
100.08
Gil Meche
KC
611
420
419.79
0.687
0.687
100.05
Mike Mussina
NYY
613
409
409.01
0.667
0.667
100.00
Jarrod Washburn
Sea
512
350
350.13
0.684
0.684
99.96
Chad Billingsley
LAD
556
370
370.36
0.665
0.666
99.90
Cliff Lee
Cle
670
462
462.50
0.690
0.690
99.89
Zack Greinke
KC
587
399
399.62
0.680
0.681
99.84
Ted Lilly
ChC
574
412
412.67
0.718
0.719
99.84
Tim Redding
Was
572
397
397.98
0.694
0.696
99.75
Wandy Rodriguez
Hou
393
266
266.71
0.677
0.679
99.74
Andy Sonnanstine
TB
632
432
433.24
0.684
0.686
99.71
Chris Sampson
Hou
383
267
267.83
0.697
0.699
99.69
Daniel Cabrera
Bal
594
409
410.64
0.689
0.691
99.60
Bronson Arroyo
Cin
605
408
409.76
0.674
0.677
99.57
Joe Blanton
Oak
440
303
304.31
0.689
0.692
99.57
Jason Bergmann
Was
445
310
311.45
0.697
0.700
99.53
Brandon Webb
Ari
671
458
460.45
0.683
0.686
99.47
Ervin Santana
LAA
605
422
424.34
0.698
0.701
99.45
Zach Duke
Pit
669
445
447.62
0.665
0.669
99.42
Kenny Rogers
Det
598
400
402.42
0.669
0.673
99.40
Ubaldo Jimenez
Col
572
395
397.49
0.691
0.695
99.37
Carlos Silva
Sea
564
365
367.36
0.647
0.651
99.36
Nate Robertson
Det
563
365
367.59
0.648
0.653
99.30
Jo-Jo Reyes
Atl
361
241
242.79
0.668
0.673
99.26
Clayton Kershaw
LAD
306
204
205.65
0.667
0.672
99.20
Ricky Nolasco
Fla
606
432
435.96
0.713
0.719
99.09
James Shields
TB
641
448
452.73
0.699
0.706
98.96
Justin Verlander
Det
598
415
419.47
0.694
0.701
98.93
Mike Pelfrey
NYM
652
446
450.98
0.684
0.692
98.89
Randy Johnson
Ari
531
359
363.22
0.676
0.684
98.84
Kyle Davies
KC
361
248
251.20
0.687
0.696
98.73
Edinson Volquez
Cin
511
350
354.63
0.685
0.694
98.69
Nick Blackburn
Min
658
445
451.38
0.676
0.686
98.59
John Maine
NYM
399
286
290.11
0.717
0.727
98.58
Pedro Martinez
NYM
337
225
228.38
0.668
0.678
98.52
A.J. Burnett
Tor
613
405
411.37
0.661
0.671
98.45
Jorge de la Rosa
Col
361
240
243.99
0.665
0.676
98.37
Mark Hendrickson
Fla
439
302
307.04
0.688
0.699
98.36
Brian Burres
Bal
460
309
314.46
0.672
0.684
98.26
Kevin Millwood
Tex
569
360
366.45
0.633
0.644
98.24
Brian Bannister
KC
603
408
415.51
0.677
0.689
98.19
Luke Hochevar
KC
430
291
297.11
0.677
0.691
97.94
Randy Wolf
SD
348
237
242.07
0.681
0.696
97.91
Brandon Backe
Hou
512
341
348.41
0.666
0.680
97.87
Barry Zito
SF
576
393
401.59
0.682
0.697
97.86
Cha Seung Baek
SD
353
238
243.40
0.674
0.690
97.78
Brett Myers
Phi
554
379
388.08
0.684
0.701
97.66
Mark Buehrle
CWS
699
466
477.66
0.667
0.683
97.56
Odalis Perez
Was
507
337
345.85
0.665
0.682
97.44
Andrew Miller
Fla
336
216
222.12
0.643
0.661
97.24
Tom Gorzelanny
Pit
332
225
231.65
0.678
0.698
97.13
Jonathan Sanchez
SF
442
297
306.08
0.672
0.692
97.03
Livan Hernandez
Min
525
339
349.78
0.646
0.666
96.92
Garrett Olson
Bal
451
295
304.47
0.654
0.675
96.89
Carlos Villanueva
Mil
320
220
228.02
0.688
0.713
96.48
Ian Snell
Pit
522
335
347.60
0.642
0.666
96.38
Andy Pettitte
NYY
641
420
439.26
0.655
0.685
95.62
Darrell Rasner
NYY
387
257
269.56
0.664
0.697
95.34
Adam Eaton
Phi
356
236
248.23
0.663
0.697
95.07
Fausto Carmona
Cle
405
273
288.06
0.674
0.711
94.77
Those are pretty impressive numbers for Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield. Not only were balls in play against them easy to field, the Red Sox did a great job of turning them into outs. For Yankees fans who are concerned about New York signing Andy Pettitte again, better defense would improve Andy's runs allowed a great deal. CC Sabathia certainly benefitted from good defense in both Cleveland and Milwaukee, so teams looking to sign him should be prepared to send their best fielders out behind the lefty.
Brian Bannister shows how important defense is to a low strikeout pitcher. His expected DER is low, and with the Royals doing a poor job fielding behind him, his actual DER was even lower. Bannister really needs to play for a team of defensive wizards.
But the question becomes: Will the stadium be ready for Opening Day 2011, as planned?
Marlins President David Samson said the legal fight puts the answer in doubt.
''The Braman litigation was absolutely a delay,'' Samson said. ``We're evaluating the significance of that delay right now with our construction managers. I hope we have an announcement here within a week.''
The timing could be critical. The team's current lease with former owner H. Wayne Huizenga at Dolphin Stadium expires at the end of the 2010 season. The Marlins could ask the stadium owners for a partial year or month-to-month lease for 2011.
Braman said in an interview that his legal team will file an immediate appeal, another possible wrinkle in the stadium's plans.
They would not be the first team to move into a stadium mid season.
Mussina got his 270 wins in 536 starts, meaning he got a W in 50.4 percent of them. Sutton got 321 wins -- he won three as a reliever -- in 756 starts, which was 42.4 percent. Tom Seaver, who pitched on a lot of bad teams and a few good ones, got 310 wins in 647 starts, 47.9 percent. Perry won 44.2 percent of his starts.
If Mussina had won at the same rate in Seaver's 647 starts, he'd have retired with 326 wins. That would have tied him with Eddie Plank for 13th all time, and not only would no one have suggested he didn't belong in the Hall, no one would have dismissed the gaudy win total because he played on a lot of winners. With Sutton's 756 starts -- including the one during the Battle of Bunker Hill -- Mussina would have won 381, more than anyone but Cy Young and Walter Johnson.
Mussina went fairly deep in games, averaging 6 2/3 innings per start. That didn't give the bullpen too much time to blow games. Combine that with a low ERA and playing for high scoring teams, and Mussina was a win machine. I have no doubt he could hang around long enough to win 300 games like Maddux and Glavine. He just wants to move on.
Ace pitcher Yadel Marti and star outfielder Yasser Gomez have been thrown off Cuba's top league team for "a grave act of indiscipline," likely ending their hopes of playing in the 2009 World Baseball Classic.
That should make it a little easier for other teams to win.
I just got back from the Verizon Store, hoping to buy a BlackBerry Storm. I was very disappointed. First, I called to an in-town Verizon dealer to see if they had the phone, since they give me the same deal as Verizon. They didn't, because they had to send the phones they received back due to a last minute software upgrade that didn't get put on those phones. So I went to the Verizon store, figuring they would have the updated phones in stock. While I was waiting for a salesperson, I got to try the phone.
The first thing I noticed was that the switch from portrait to landscape was very slow. The first time I changed the orientation of the phone, nothing happened. I thought maybe the function was off, but after many seconds, the screen changed. If I want to flip to a different keypad, I don't want to wait seconds for the change. Then, when I was typing, I found the left-hand side of the QWERTY keyboard off. I kept getting a d instead of an s, and an r instead of an e. It also took me a while to figure out how to bring up the screen with the @ as I tried to enter an email address.
Then I tried to browse the web, but I couldn't find the browser application. By this time, a salesperson came to speak with me. She then talked to the technicians, who said the browser application disappearing was a known problem! I'm buying the phone for the browser! I asked if I would lose the browser on my phone, and she said probably not. The phone on display had been out three days under constant abuse. In my opinion, if a phone breaks down under three days of constant use, it's not a very good phone. Obviously, no one dropped it, since it was tethered by a retractable wire to the display.
On the good side, the touch screen does feel like a keyboard. I like the tactile feedback. I also called my wife on her cell phone, and the call was crystal clear. Unless, however, they resolve the bugs that make the browser application disappear, I would hold off on buying this phone. Once again, Verizon disappoints me.
I'm somewhat surprised with all the hype over MLB designating Hal Steinbrenner responsible for the Yankees. This seems like a formality. Of course it was going to be Hal, as he is the good cop in the Hal/Hank ownership duo. This announcement doesn't really change anything.
Feliz' procedure, a lumbar discectomy that will correct the intermittent symptoms that placed him on the disabled list for 26 days in July and August, requires an 8-to-12-week rehabilitation period, meaning he likely will be at full strength either at the start of spring training or soon thereafter.
The Phillies had Donald practicing at both Utley's and Feliz's positions:
Donald, meanwhile, has quickly become one of the Phillies' top prospects. He hit two home runs in a spring-training game against the Blue Jays, then hit .307 with 14 home runs and 54 RBI at Double A Reading. He also finished fourth in the recently completed Arizona Fall League with a .407 batting average.
During the AFL season, Donald played both second base and third base in addition to his natural position at shortstop.
I could see Donald moving into Feliz's position if he can post high OBAs as he did in the minors.
Utley consistently downplayed speculation about his bad hip during the second half of the postseason. But the Phillies revealed Thursday that since the World Series, he has had the hip evaluated by Phillies team physician Michael Ciccotti, of Thomas Jefferson University Hospital's Rothman Institute, and by Dr. Bryan Kelly, of the Hospital for Special Surgery in New York.
Both doctors recommended that Utley undergo surgery on his right hip. That procedure, described by the club as an "arthroscopic evaluation with treatment of any labral or bony injury," will be performed by Dr. Kelly next week.
According to the Phillies, Utley would be able to resume baseball activities in three to four months -- meaning sometime during spring training, but possibly not until the week before Opening Day.
However, full recovery time is projected at between four and six months. That means the best-case scenario is a return in early April, but the worst-case scenario is late May or early June, depending on how long a rehab option the club feels he would need.
So Amaro starts his tenure with a huge hole to fill. I wonder if this will make them more likely to re-sign Pat Burrell to keep two big bats in the middle of the lineup?
When weighing the risk of a player getting taken, it can be counterintuitive. It would seem logical that the best way to protect a player would be to put him on the 40-man roster. That is often, but not always, the case. Sometimes, for players who are borderline roster considerations, you may be safer by leaving him OFF the 40-man. The reason is that if he's taken in the Rule V, he has to stay in the Majors or else be offered back. However, if for some reason (add a free agent, add someone through trade, need someone during the season due to injury) you need to add a player to the 40-man at a later date, you may be forced to outright someone to make room. When you outright a first year roster player, he still has all of his minor league options, so teams can claim him and send him right into their minor league system. In short, it's much easier to lose a player trying to remove him from the 40-man than it is to lose him via the Rule V draft.
A master of control, Mussina walked only 785 batters in 3,562.2 career innings, averaging 1.98 walks/9.0IP. According to Elias, he is one of just three pitchers in AL history to toss at least 3,000.0 innings while holding opponents to fewer than
2.0 walks/9.0IP, joining Jack Quinn (1.96) and Cy Young (1.11).
The thing that fascinated me about Mussina was the way strikeouts came to him later in his career. Pitchers tend to strikeout more batters early in their careers, then fade. Through age 26, Mike struck out an average of 5.6 batters per nine innings, an unimpressive number. For the rest of his career, that would rise to 7.6 per nine. I especially remember game one of the 1997 ALDS in which he struck out nine Mariners in seven innings. He struck out 16 in the series. That wasn't the Mussina I knew, but when I looked at his record the changeover was clear.
"I'm trying to get the guy to swing at a pitch he doesn't want to swing at," he explains. David Ortiz of the Boston Red Sox, a disciplined power hitter, has struggled against Mussina. Ortiz might see a first-pitch curveball and then, depending on his reaction, another one a bit lower. After he sees two curves, a fastball will seem quicker than it really is. So two fastballs might follow -- one low, one high, to change Ortiz's eye level -- and if Mussina has two strikes by then, he might offer a curveball down and hope Ortiz chases it for strike three.
He certainly had an interesting career, one that should land him in the Hall of Fame. I hope he enjoys his retirement. He'll be missed.
In the post, Jeff Sackmann also makes the point that a shorter time frame on the contract might make Sabathia more money in the long run. It's a good point, and one that seems to be ignored by players these days.
The other day the Cardinals said signing lefty relievers was their priority, and now it appears Trever Miller is in the fold. This would be Miller's seventh team and ninth stint with a different team. Miller did do a good job as a lefty specialist in 2008, holding left-handed batters to a .209 BA. He walked a high number, however, as lefties posted a .305 OBA. Still, those are good numbers and what teams look for in that very specialized position.
"Our focus is on our pitching, but that doesn't mean we're closed-minded," Cashman said. "If the pitching doesn't go the way we want it, we'll have to re-focus. We're going to be engaged on the entire free agent market. How it plays out, I can't predict."
It looks like the Boston and New York papers are trying to create a bidding war over the first baseman.
Phillies prospect Jason Donald takes home the Dernell Stenson Award for sportsmanship in the Arizona Fall League. Donald is a shortstop who gets on base. Given that Rollins is blocking him through 2010, he might end up as a decent trading chip for the organization.
Many Japanese baseball officials are outraged that United States teams are courting Tazawa, a hard-throwing right-handed pitcher, because they insist it is long-established practice for amateurs like him to be strictly off limits to major league clubs. Even some American general managers, including the Yankees' Brian Cashman, agree.
Major League Baseball officials maintain that the letter of their protocol agreement with their Japanese counterparts, Nippon Professional Baseball, does not forbid either league from courting amateur talent from the other's nation. When one Japanese representative characterized the rule as a gentleman's agreement during a meeting in New York, he was angrily rebutted by a Major League Baseball official, according to two attendees.
The Tazawa dispute extends beyond one pitching phenom and an interpretation of honor. The Japanese major leagues have already seen established stars leave for American clubs, and amateurs following Tazawa's path away from those leagues could further hurt the leagues' long-term viability.
The answer, of course, is to make all amateurs free agents and encourage teams all over the world to bid on them. Bring the Japanese into direct competition with North America, and when the two leagues come into parity, we can hold a true World Series.
Mike will be making a decision on his intentions shortly. Given the significance of this to Mike, I would hope you can respect his desire to be the author of any such announcement consistent with his own time table. A decision of this magnitude should not be the subject of unconfirmed rumors and speculation. Accordingly, I am not going to make any further comment until Mike has made his final decision.
The Baseball Musings Radio Show is coming up tonight at 8 PM EST on TPS Radio. You can watch, listen and chat here. If you want to leave a question, feel free to do so in the comments to this post.
TPS Radio is on channel 100. At the bottom of the player you'll see a control with an up and down arrow. Click on that and select channel 100 from the list.
When the Sox want something enough, they make sure they get it.
In the case of Teixeira, rest assured that the Sox want him, no matter what games are being paid by club officials. Publicly and privately, the Sox are saying nothing about their interest in Teixeira and playing dumb every time his name comes up. It's as sure a sign as any that they are preparing to go to extraordinary lengths. Last year, in the midst of the Johan Santana trade talks, the Sox were far more forthcoming about who and what they were willing to offer. When all was said and done, the Sox were not interested in acquiring Santana so much as they were interested in driving up the price for the rival Yankees; as it turned out, they kept Santana out of the Bronx altogether.
So the fact that the Red Sox aren't interested in Teixeira is a sure sign they are interested in Teixeira. An amazing bit of logic that. Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe hope Boston isn't interested in them either.
"CC, which team will you sign with?"
"Probably Boston. They haven't shown any interest in me, so I should be getting 10 years, $250 million!"
"I'd make it one-game-and-you're-out for the first series," the Oakland Athletics owner said Wednesday. "It would be exciting. It would be great."
Begun in 1995, the division series has been a best-of-five competition. Some people have advocated it be expanded to best-of-seven, matching the league championship series and the World Series. Baseball commissioner Bud Selig has repeatedly said he favors the current format.
Wolff said he hasn't brought up his concept with Selig.
That would certainly make things pretty random. In 2008, we would have had the same four teams in the LCS as well.
Maybe this is the way to do the World Baseball Classic. Make it sixteen teams, single elimination. The tournament would end in five days so team can get back to spring training. If the teams are seeded and the opponents are set from the original pairings, office and online pools would pop up and there would be a lot more interest in the WBC.
Dustin Pedroia winning the AL MVP reminds Josh Wilker of the 1971 MVP vote in which Fred Patek finished ahead of Bobby Murcer, despite Murcer being a much better ballplayer that season.
My favorite Patek moment came at the end of the 1977 ALCS. All series long the announcers kept telling us about the great fundamentals of the Royals, embodied by Fred Patek. They split the first two games at Yankee Stadium, and won game three in Kansas City with two more to play at home.
The Yankees won game four, and trailed 3-1 in game five going into the eighth, at which point Whitey Herzong over-managed his bullpen. New York scored one in the eighth and three in the ninth to take a 5-3 lead.
Patek comes up in the bottom of the inning, one out and a man on first. Patek was 7 for 17 at that point with three doubles and a triple. Certainly the great fundamental ballplayer would find a way to keep the Royals alive. Instead, he grounds into a double play. The Kansas City crowd stood at their seats in stunned silence as the Yankees celebrated on the field, and alone on the bench Fred Patek sat alone and cried.
It was one of the most amazing crowd reactions I've seen in sports. The only other thing that came close was Harvard winning the 1989 NCAA hockey championship. The game was played in St. Paul against Minnesota. Minnesota fans out-numbered Harvard fans 100-1. The Crimson scored in overtime to win the game. As ESPN pulled back to show the crowd, everyone stood their in stunned slience, except for a small section where the Harvard University Band was jumping up and down.
Sports radio station WHB 810 in Kansas City reported this morning that the Red Sox have traded center fielder Coco Crisp to the Royals for righthanded relief pitcher Ramon Ramirez.
But during an on-air interview a few moments ago, Royals senior adviser Mike Arbuckle would not confirm that the deal was complete.
"I would say Coco is a good player and we're always interested in getting good players," said Arbuckle, who recently joined the Royals after working in the front office of the World Champion Philadelphia Phillies.
In the two seasons Ramirez picked up a decent amount of innings, he pitched well. He's good at keeping the ball in the park, strikes out batters without giving up too many walks. This looks like a good move for the Red Sox, trading away a spare part and improving the bullpen. We'll see if the deal actually goes down.
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2008, Pitchers Permalink
The survey of the positions ends with the pitchers. First the teams:
Team Pitchers PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only
Team
In Play
Actual Outs
Predicted Outs
DER
Predicted DER
Ratio
Blue Jays
4215
181
161.32
0.043
0.038
112.20
Tigers
4536
187
171.99
0.041
0.038
108.72
Padres
4419
217
202.55
0.049
0.046
107.13
Royals
4413
170
161.90
0.039
0.037
105.00
Mariners
4512
161
154.23
0.036
0.034
104.39
Twins
4607
190
183.22
0.041
0.040
103.70
Mets
4335
200
192.92
0.046
0.045
103.67
Nationals
4417
193
186.24
0.044
0.042
103.63
Dodgers
4265
217
209.44
0.051
0.049
103.61
Cubs
4156
179
174.74
0.043
0.042
102.44
Phillies
4396
198
193.35
0.045
0.044
102.40
Rockies
4535
204
201.22
0.045
0.044
101.38
Cardinals
4597
205
203.96
0.045
0.044
100.51
Braves
4383
213
211.93
0.049
0.048
100.51
Indians
4513
169
168.95
0.037
0.037
100.03
Astros
4292
159
160.96
0.037
0.038
98.78
Marlins
4338
162
164.14
0.037
0.038
98.70
Red Sox
4232
154
156.88
0.036
0.037
98.17
Diamondbacks
4224
193
196.62
0.046
0.047
98.16
Pirates
4683
211
215.78
0.045
0.046
97.78
White Sox
4409
190
194.51
0.043
0.044
97.68
Rangers
4667
178
184.54
0.038
0.040
96.46
Angels
4374
148
154.21
0.034
0.035
95.97
Reds
4299
174
181.34
0.040
0.042
95.95
Orioles
4540
152
158.73
0.033
0.035
95.76
Yankees
4349
186
194.41
0.043
0.045
95.67
Athletics
4285
142
149.52
0.033
0.035
94.97
Rays
4264
114
124.63
0.027
0.029
91.47
Giants
4232
142
156.07
0.034
0.037
90.98
Brewers
4354
183
205.85
0.042
0.047
88.90
The Blue Jays not only posted an excellent team ERA, but helped themselves defensively as well. The Brewers staff depended more on the fielders behind them. In looking at the individuals, experience appears to be a key to doing well:
Individual Pitchers PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only (500 balls in play)
Player
In Play
Actual Outs
Predicted Outs
DER
Predicted DER
Ratio
Jesse Litsch
569
39
24.20
0.069
0.043
161.16
Greg Maddux
649
59
39.59
0.091
0.061
149.04
Kenny Rogers
598
56
38.39
0.094
0.064
145.87
Livan Hernandez
674
31
22.40
0.046
0.033
138.39
Javier Vazquez
598
29
21.39
0.048
0.036
135.61
Felix Hernandez
577
32
24.02
0.055
0.042
133.25
Jeremy Guthrie
587
23
17.74
0.039
0.030
129.67
Jon Garland
684
31
24.42
0.045
0.036
126.92
Justin Verlander
598
23
18.21
0.038
0.030
126.33
Gil Meche
611
28
22.50
0.046
0.037
124.43
Kyle Kendrick
560
32
26.17
0.057
0.047
122.28
Zack Greinke
587
26
21.34
0.044
0.036
121.86
Bronson Arroyo
605
32
26.95
0.053
0.045
118.72
Cole Hamels
635
35
29.59
0.055
0.047
118.30
Joel Pineiro
505
28
23.71
0.055
0.047
118.07
Tim Wakefield
539
16
13.55
0.030
0.025
118.07
Tim Redding
572
22
18.86
0.038
0.033
116.64
Jason Marquis
554
35
30.06
0.063
0.054
116.42
Ryan Dempster
572
36
31.12
0.063
0.054
115.67
Joe Saunders
623
31
27.14
0.050
0.044
114.24
Glen Perkins
520
23
20.25
0.044
0.039
113.58
Vicente Padilla
524
20
17.70
0.038
0.034
113.02
Roy Oswalt
617
31
27.46
0.050
0.045
112.90
Brandon Webb
671
54
48.10
0.080
0.072
112.27
Aaron Cook
725
44
40.31
0.061
0.056
109.15
Jeff Suppan
589
28
25.91
0.048
0.044
108.06
Scott Olsen
640
20
18.55
0.031
0.029
107.84
Jair Jurrjens
589
37
34.69
0.063
0.059
106.66
Gavin Floyd
625
26
24.44
0.042
0.039
106.39
Zach Duke
669
37
35.21
0.055
0.053
105.09
Oliver Perez
527
17
16.28
0.032
0.031
104.42
Barry Zito
576
20
19.28
0.035
0.033
103.75
Paul Maholm
621
31
29.90
0.050
0.048
103.69
Matt Cain
630
27
26.14
0.043
0.041
103.30
Andy Sonnanstine
632
20
19.44
0.032
0.031
102.89
Hiroki Kuroda
598
39
37.92
0.065
0.063
102.84
Jon Lester
632
21
20.46
0.033
0.032
102.63
Kevin Millwood
569
25
24.56
0.044
0.043
101.80
Greg Smith
578
16
15.75
0.028
0.027
101.56
Brett Myers
554
23
22.85
0.042
0.041
100.64
Ted Lilly
574
15
15.03
0.026
0.026
99.79
Brian Bannister
603
30
30.11
0.050
0.050
99.63
Jamie Moyer
625
20
20.19
0.032
0.032
99.04
John Danks
569
24
24.25
0.042
0.043
98.97
Jarrod Washburn
512
20
20.39
0.039
0.040
98.07
Ubaldo Jimenez
572
35
35.69
0.061
0.062
98.06
Edinson Volquez
511
24
24.49
0.047
0.048
98.02
Mike Pelfrey
652
29
29.63
0.044
0.045
97.88
Kyle Lohse
650
30
30.67
0.046
0.047
97.81
CC Sabathia
687
27
27.67
0.039
0.040
97.59
Paul Byrd
608
17
17.52
0.028
0.029
97.04
Roy Halladay
713
31
32.28
0.043
0.045
96.03
Derek Lowe
644
39
40.83
0.061
0.063
95.52
Chad Billingsley
556
21
22.07
0.038
0.040
95.14
Joe Blanton
652
25
26.28
0.038
0.040
95.13
Odalis Perez
507
23
24.23
0.045
0.048
94.93
Dana Eveland
519
17
17.94
0.033
0.035
94.76
John Lannan
560
29
30.68
0.052
0.055
94.53
Armando Galarraga
525
13
14.04
0.025
0.027
92.57
Mike Mussina
613
28
30.47
0.046
0.050
91.88
Johan Santana
668
30
32.68
0.045
0.049
91.81
Ian Snell
522
21
23.11
0.040
0.044
90.85
Jered Weaver
513
10
11.02
0.019
0.021
90.71
Brandon Backe
512
16
18.01
0.031
0.035
88.85
Todd Wellemeyer
579
15
16.95
0.026
0.029
88.51
Carlos Zambrano
570
23
26.30
0.040
0.046
87.45
Nick Blackburn
658
24
27.47
0.036
0.042
87.36
Mark Buehrle
699
27
31.03
0.039
0.044
87.02
A.J. Burnett
613
24
27.68
0.039
0.045
86.70
James Shields
641
19
21.96
0.030
0.034
86.52
Carlos Silva
564
14
16.40
0.025
0.029
85.36
Dan Haren
610
24
28.16
0.039
0.046
85.21
Matt Garza
560
15
17.82
0.027
0.032
84.18
Edwin Jackson
582
12
14.35
0.021
0.025
83.61
Johnny Cueto
500
18
21.67
0.036
0.043
83.08
Ervin Santana
605
18
22.09
0.030
0.037
81.49
Ricky Nolasco
606
17
21.08
0.028
0.035
80.65
Nate Robertson
563
20
24.99
0.036
0.044
80.03
Randy Wolf
557
25
31.51
0.045
0.057
79.34
Tim Lincecum
562
17
21.44
0.030
0.038
79.28
Braden Looper
653
20
25.71
0.031
0.039
77.80
Brian Moehler
509
12
15.68
0.024
0.031
76.53
Aaron Harang
552
13
17.37
0.024
0.031
74.84
David Bush
567
18
24.87
0.032
0.044
72.37
Randy Johnson
531
12
16.86
0.023
0.032
71.17
Andy Pettitte
641
22
30.94
0.034
0.048
71.11
Cliff Lee
670
17
28.39
0.025
0.042
59.89
Daniel Cabrera
594
11
18.98
0.019
0.032
57.95
Ben Sheets
589
14
24.34
0.024
0.041
57.52
Jesse Litsch is young, but 2-4 are all veterans, and Maddux seems to come out near the top quite often. Mike Mussina, however, did not appear to deserve his gold glove. Remember to take this ranking with a grain of salt, since pitchers are not in the field that often compared to position players, and get many fewer chances to field balls. Luck is a much bigger factor in this group.
The Arizona Republic sold their stake in the Diamondbacks. They invested $7 million, but the report does not mention how much they received for their investment. I assume they needed the cash infusion to keep the paper going. I wonder when the New York Times sells their stake in the Red Sox?
Pedroia's agent certainly can go into any negotiations with a bit more confidence, but the Sox will go about their business the same way. They aren't against long-term deals for young, controllable players as long as the numbers make sense to them.
In other words, they'd do it if the long-term numbers wind up favoring the team - just as Evan Longoria's potential nine-year deal with Tampa Bay (which includes three option years) favors the Rays. But the Sox aren't afraid to go year to year with the probability they'll have to pay out more money just before free agency if they decide they want to keep the player.
The long term deals save money in two ways. They tend to understate salary inflation, and they save the cost of arbitration. These contracts also make players more tradable, since if the future value is really lower than salary inflation, teams can get a good deal in a trade. With economic conditions uncertain, however, the Red Sox may be better off going year-to-year with Dustin.
"I think the best way for me to sum it up is, in retrospect, obviously I was wrong," Grant said by phone. "My colleagues all, and people I respect an awful lot, thought Dustin deserved to be in the top 5. I had him on my ballot in some scenarios as high as No. 1 late into September. When I looked at the numbers that to me mattered most, OPS and batting average with runners in scoring position, he just didn't stack up with Youkilis at all. He was a laggard behind the others who had great years in the American League. Is it an error of omission that he's left off my ballot entirely? You could say that."
This wasn't as bad as the person who left Pedro off the ballot in 1999, and his reasoning is pretty sound. However, he also voted Mauer 8th, so maybe his overall reasoning isn't so sound.
Dustin Pedroia wins the AL Most Valuable Player Award fairly easily, capturing 16 first place votes to Justin Morneau's seven. Pedroia was left off one ballot, however. He did not receive a vote lower than fourth. Teammates of the 1-2 finishers, Kevin Youkilis and Joe Mauer finished third and fourth. Each picked up two first place votes and Francisco Rodriguez took the other, finishing sixth behind Carlos Quentin. Mauer actually picked up the most second place votes, but his ballot placements were more spread out than Morneau and Youkilis, dropping Joe to fourth.
Pedroia is a perfectly good pick, but I still don't understand valuing Morneau over Mauer. Roy Halladay did not receive a single vote. Probably the strangest vote was a fifth place to Jason Bartlett, although during the season I did hear someone argue he was the Rays MVP.
"What I did today and plan to do [Tuesday]," he said, "is continue to touch base with dotting i's and crossing t's, in terms of background and history, so there are no surprises in the final selection."
What he is trying to avoid, no doubt, is any semblance of the Wally Backman debacle in Arizona after the 2004 season. Hired by the Diamondbacks on Nov. 1, Backman was fired on Nov. 5 after revelations of legal and financial problems surfaced.
It's also a good idea from a publicity standpoint. People will be focused on the AL MVP vote today, but tomorrow the Mariners should get all the attention.
The BBWAA announces the American League Most Valuable Player Award winner this afternoon at 2 PM EST. This is a very tough race to predict for a number of reasons.
First, the Red Sox own two viable candidates, Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia. Boston media and fans are pushing Pedroia, although Youkilis produced better averages.
Second, the Twins also trot out two viable candidates in Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. In my opinion, the combination of Mauer's offense and defense are much better than Morneau's, but voters like the home runs and RBI that comes in the other package.
Carlos Quentin, who might have been an easy first choice, missed the last month of the season.
Josh Hamilton, the feel good story of the last two years, cranked out RBI at a very high rate. He also plays with a teammate, Milton Bradley, who put up better averages.
In a year like this, where I suspect different regions will produce different results (the Minnesota players getting votes in the midwest, the Boston players getting votes in the East, Hamilton and Bradley getting votes in the west), don't be surprised to see Alex Rodriguez sneak in. Alex led the AL in VORP (subscription required) and was a close third in home runs at 35. It's possible that if the first place vote is split enough, and Alex turns out to be a consensus second choice, he could win the award. I don't think that will happen, mostly because the Yankees didn't make the playoffs. In a vote in which there are so many players so close, I would not be surprised if the consensus second place player won. Throw in Grady Sizemore and Cliff Lee to the mix, and there are possibly nine players who might pull down a first place vote.
I like Mauer myself. My ballot would probably look like:
Joe Mauer
Kevin Youkilis
Dustin Pedroia
Carlos Quentin
Grady Sizemore
Alex Rodriguez
Josh Hamilton
Roy Halladay
Milton Bradley
Cliff Lee
I'm very curious to see how this one comes out. The advantage of a Borda count voting system is that it produces a viable winner when there is no clear cut first choice.
Pujols was not an embarrassing selection, not with his excellent numbers, but was still the wrong selection. And that should embarrass the association enough to do what it should have done long ago: get out of the business of voting on baseball's postseason awards - as well as the Hall of Fame.
That won't happen because the association is as incapable of being embarrassed as is Major League Baseball itself.
Voting for Edinson Volquez was an embarrassment. Manny Ramirez finishing fourth in the MVP poll was a bit of an embarrassment. Getting the vote right by picking Albert Pujols showed that some writers actually know what they are doing.
Reliever Jeremy Affeldt became the first of 171 free agents to agree to a contract, striking an $8 million, two-year deal Monday with the San Francisco Giants.
He's put up two good years in a row playing in parks that favor the hitter. The money is right in line with Damaso Marte's contract, and Affeldt is younger and pitches more innings.
Baseball's legends and old-timers will play in a new Hall of Fame Classic game beginning in 2009.
The inaugural Hall of Fame Classic will be held on Father's Day, June 21. The game replaces the Hall of Fame Game, which was discontinued this year after 68 years.
This might even be more fun. Instead of a group of minor leaguers filling in, their will be players people know and care about. It's a nice compromise.
Pujols, who previously won the award in 2005, was the only player whose name appeared on all 32 ballots submitted by two writers in each league city. He was listed first on 18 ballots, second on 10, third on two, fourth on one and seventh on one for a total of 369 points, based on the tabulation system that rewards 14 points for first place, nine for second, eight for third and on down to one for 10th.
It's a very interesting vote, with Howard finishing second, and Brad Lidge receiving two first place votes but finishing eighth. Outside of Pujols and Howard, there was no real consensus. Manny Ramirez finished fourth, which is pretty amazing considering he was in the league for just two months. Sabathia finished sixth, again the voters recognizing the impact of a short term player. For the second year in a row, I'm surprised at the lack of support for Hanley Ramirez.
A question arose as to my earlier post, as to why I left Berkman off the ballot when I thought he played better than Ryan Howard. The answer was simply that Berkman was just another first baseman having a great year. Down ballot, I like to recognize accomplishments. So Howard leading the majors in home runs goes down there, as does Manny's two incredible months with the Dodgers, and Tim Lincecum's Cy Young season. I think there can be some subjectivity to the MVP ballot, especially down ballot.
Congratulations to Albert Pujols on his second win. If Barry Bonds hadn't been around early in the decade, we might have seen four or five wins by now.
The Mets asked the agents for both Francisco Rodriguez and Brian Fuentes to call them before they sign with anyone else. They also appear to have at least talked about a contract with K-Rod.
If true, that leaves the Red Sox with a big hole -- you cannot replace a starter who consistently posts a 100-115 ERA+ over 200 innings with a salary of just $4 million. On the other hand, it would eliminate the need for a specialized Wakefield-only catcher, making perhaps more possible a Varitek-Saltalamacchia semiplatoon as the one passes his baton to the other.
The BBWAA announce the National League MVP award this afternoon, and the pundits seem to handicap it as a race between Albert Pujols and Ryan Howard. However, that ignores a middle infielder with a great season, Hanley Ramirez.
There is no doubt Albert Pujols was the best hitter in the majors this season. If I'm filling out a ballot, Pujols gets my number one vote. I'm not sure how high I rank Howard. Here's a list of qualifying MLB players by slugging percentage. Note that Hanley finishes just three points behind Howard, and blows him away in both batting average and OBA. On top of that, he played a pretty good shortstop this season. Voting Howard second also ignores Lance Berkman, who posted better numbers as a first basemen, and other offensive contributors at key defensive positions like David Wright, Carlos Beltran and Howard's own teammate Chase Utley. If Ryan wins the award or finishes second, the Home Run/RBI wing of the voters is still alive and well.
Hanley Ramirez Photo:Icon SMI
My ballot would be something like:
Albert Pujols
Hanley Ramirez
Chase Utley
Carlos Beltran
David Wright
Dan Uggla
Tim Lincecum
Ryan Braun
Ryan Howard
Manny Ramirez
Manny was certainly the spark that brought the division to the Dodgers, but it's tough for me to include him for two months worth of work. I might put Cole Hamels there instead. We'll see how the voters decided at 2 PM EST.
Francisco Rodriguez is a good closer. Of that there's no question. But there are already a lot of miles on his arm, and he's coming off the worst season of his career in which his fastball dropped a few ticks. That's bad. Those are two major red flags, and you better believe the league is aware. I would not want to be a fan of the team that ends up footing his contract, because while free agency is almost always about paying for what a guy's already done (as opposed to what you expect him to do), this one takes that to another level.
All pitchers eventually lose something off their fastballs. The good ones adjust by improving their control. It usually happens when they're 30, not 26, however.
"I always dreamed of becoming a professional," Yoshida, who is 5-feet tall and weighs 114 pounds, told a news conference Monday. "I have only just been picked by the team and haven't achieved anything yet."
Yoshida throws a side-arm knuckleball and says she wants to follow in the footsteps of Boston Red Sox pitcher Tim Wakefield, who has built a successful major league career throwing a knuckleball.
I've thought for a while that a knuckleball might be the way for a woman to play against men, or as a really slick fielding second baseman. I hope she pitches well.
Now the Mets do not like Hoffman's stuff, and if you were guessing where Wood would end up, then playing for fellow fireballing Texan Nolan Ryan's Rangers would be a good bet (he is the team president). But the definitive league-wide availability of Hoffman and Wood only further saturated the closer market. And only gave greater confidence to the Mets that they not only will find a closer this offseason, but find him via free agency, which is their preference because that would allow them to protect their farm system.
The market has become so saturated, in fact, that an AL official regularly in touch with the Mets executives said it was his perception the Mets will wait to see if supply-and-demand take holds and the price falls, especially for the two main free-agent closers, Brian Fuentes and Francisco Rodriguez. As Hardball previously has reported, the Mets' main targets this offseason are Fuentes and Derek Lowe.
Having options helps prevent teams from being held up by players.
According to multiple sources, Boston management had drafted an official letter of suspension for Ramirez, and delivered it to him at Fenway Park at around 11 p.m. on Friday night, July 25. For the second straight game, Ramirez had refused to play that evening, and the Red Sox lost 1-0 to the rival New York Yankees in front of a boisterous and sold-out home crowd.
The letter informed Ramirez that the suspension was to go into effect the next day, Saturday, July 26. It said Ramirez was being suspended without pay for being unwilling to play. Copies of the letter were also sent to Major League Baseball, the MLB Players Association and Ramirez's agent, Scott Boras.
Suspensions in baseball are not unusual for players who test positive for performance-enhancing drugs or who are involved in fights during a game. It is extremely rare for a player to be suspended, or threatened with such a suspension, for refusing to play.
Within two hours after Ramirez received the letter of suspension, the Red Sox received two calls, according to sources. The first call was from one of Ramirez's teammates. He told a member of Boston's front office that Ramirez would play in Saturday afternoon's game against the Yankees. Within minutes, the second call came in from Ramirez himself, who confirmed that he would be available for Saturday's game.
If the story is correct, the threat appeared to work.
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2008, Catcher Permalink
Our survey of the positions continues with catchers. Catchers don't field very many balls, so take these rankings with a grain of salt. First, the teams:
Team Catchers PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only
Team
In Play
Actual Outs
Predicted Outs
DER
Predicted DER
Ratio
Brewers
4354
71
63.52
0.016
0.015
111.78
Mets
4335
54
48.85
0.012
0.011
110.53
Astros
4292
41
37.24
0.010
0.009
110.11
Pirates
4683
53
48.61
0.011
0.010
109.03
Twins
4607
45
41.93
0.010
0.009
107.32
Yankees
4349
56
52.39
0.013
0.012
106.89
Rangers
4667
49
46.47
0.010
0.010
105.44
Rockies
4535
58
55.02
0.013
0.012
105.42
Orioles
4540
41
39.10
0.009
0.009
104.86
Phillies
4396
58
56.28
0.013
0.013
103.06
Braves
4383
63
61.73
0.014
0.014
102.07
Diamondbacks
4224
50
49.19
0.012
0.012
101.65
Nationals
4417
34
33.64
0.008
0.008
101.08
Padres
4419
64
63.44
0.014
0.014
100.88
Mariners
4512
42
42.22
0.009
0.009
99.47
Dodgers
4265
38
38.45
0.009
0.009
98.82
Blue Jays
4215
57
57.84
0.014
0.014
98.54
Angels
4374
44
44.74
0.010
0.010
98.35
Tigers
4536
58
59.27
0.013
0.013
97.86
White Sox
4409
39
39.88
0.009
0.009
97.80
Giants
4232
48
49.80
0.011
0.012
96.38
Rays
4264
50
51.91
0.012
0.012
96.32
Red Sox
4232
51
53.09
0.012
0.013
96.07
Royals
4413
49
51.24
0.011
0.012
95.62
Marlins
4338
58
60.75
0.013
0.014
95.47
Indians
4513
45
47.90
0.010
0.011
93.94
Cardinals
4597
47
50.66
0.010
0.011
92.78
Athletics
4285
28
31.42
0.007
0.007
89.12
Reds
4299
52
60.30
0.012
0.014
86.23
Cubs
4156
42
51.03
0.010
0.012
82.31
It looks like the Mets trade for Brian Schneider turned out to be a good one from a defensive standpoint. It also looks like rookie of the year Geovany Soto might have some things to learn behind the plate. Let's look at the individuals:
Individual Catchers PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player
In Play
Actual Outs
Predicted Outs
DER
Predicted DER
Ratio
Wil Nieves
1327
14
9.94
0.011
0.007
140.90
J.R. Towles
1252
8
6.01
0.006
0.005
133.04
Kevin Cash
1131
14
10.77
0.012
0.010
129.95
Ryan Doumit
2933
31
26.57
0.011
0.009
116.66
Carlos Ruiz
2517
42
36.54
0.017
0.015
114.95
Guillermo Quiroz
1176
8
7.01
0.007
0.006
114.11
Chris Iannetta
2633
35
30.83
0.013
0.012
113.52
Humberto Quintero
1321
15
13.41
0.011
0.010
111.87
Victor Martinez
1388
16
14.48
0.012
0.010
110.53
Jason Kendall
3988
67
60.93
0.017
0.015
109.97
Jason LaRue
1288
16
14.58
0.012
0.011
109.72
Joe Mauer
3805
41
37.60
0.011
0.010
109.03
Ramon Castro
1041
14
12.97
0.013
0.012
107.97
Gregg Zaun
1807
30
28.04
0.017
0.016
106.97
Dioner Navarro
2911
38
35.59
0.013
0.012
106.77
Ivan Rodriguez
2947
42
39.65
0.014
0.013
105.93
Brian Schneider
2575
30
28.52
0.012
0.011
105.19
Jeff Mathis
2351
33
31.46
0.014
0.013
104.90
Josh Bard
1253
21
20.28
0.017
0.016
103.56
Ramon Hernandez
3272
33
32.09
0.010
0.010
102.83
Miguel Montero
1191
15
14.77
0.013
0.012
101.53
Chris Snyder
2733
33
32.54
0.012
0.012
101.41
Brad Ausmus
1719
18
17.82
0.010
0.010
101.04
Gerald Laird
2419
24
23.76
0.010
0.010
101.00
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
1470
17
16.85
0.012
0.011
100.90
Jose Molina
2152
23
22.80
0.011
0.011
100.89
Brandon Inge
1541
21
21.16
0.014
0.014
99.24
A.J. Pierzynski
3428
31
31.53
0.009
0.009
98.31
Brian McCann
3470
49
50.81
0.014
0.015
96.44
Miguel Olivo
1509
19
19.85
0.013
0.013
95.70
John Buck
2902
30
31.39
0.010
0.011
95.57
Yorvit Torrealba
1819
21
22.19
0.012
0.012
94.65
Kurt Suzuki
3608
25
26.45
0.007
0.007
94.50
Matt Treanor
1561
23
24.36
0.015
0.016
94.43
Nick Hundley
1482
18
19.13
0.012
0.013
94.11
Bengie Molina
3272
36
39.00
0.011
0.012
92.31
Geovany Soto
3302
34
37.47
0.010
0.011
90.75
Rod Barajas
2262
24
26.60
0.011
0.012
90.24
Russell Martin
3655
31
34.63
0.008
0.009
89.52
Jason Varitek
3002
37
42.26
0.012
0.014
87.56
Jesus Flores
2116
13
15.03
0.006
0.007
86.52
David Ross
1238
17
19.69
0.014
0.016
86.35
Kenji Johjima
2617
20
23.53
0.008
0.009
85.01
Yadier Molina
3185
29
34.24
0.009
0.011
84.70
Mike Napoli
1931
10
12.08
0.005
0.006
82.77
Paul Bako
2272
20
24.25
0.009
0.011
82.48
Kelly Shoppach
2774
25
30.66
0.009
0.011
81.54
John Baker
1477
13
15.96
0.009
0.011
81.46
Chris Coste
1853
15
18.62
0.008
0.010
80.57
Shawn Riggans
1041
11
14.08
0.011
0.014
78.12
Here's another reason Joe Mauer gets my vote for AL MVP. He's not only a great offensive catcher, but he fields his position well also. For those teams interested in Jason Varitek, his ranking here is certainly another strike against him.
It's also interesting to note that Jarrod Saltalamacchia wasn't terrible behind the plate. I know there's much more to the position than the ability to field, but in this regard, Saltalamacchia shows a positive behind the plate.
"It sounds like they're overbidding," Melvin said. "If the speculation is true that we've offered CC $100 million, why would you offer $140 million? Why wouldn't you offer $110 million?"
Because, Doug, if they offered $110 million you might bid again. This way, they drive out all of the teams that can't afford $140 million, and see who's left. This leaves the Yankees with a lot less work to do. Since Sabathia is probably worth around $27 million a year, or $162 million over six years, the Yankees just took the bidding up to a decent level where it will move along faster.
Melvin should bid $150 million for six years. In all likelihood, the Yankees will top that. So Doug gets to look like a hero to the Milwaukee fans for being willing to spend top dollar on Sabathia without shelling out any money, plus he forces the Yankees to bid higher.
If all the other teams are scared away by New York's offer, the Yankees get Sabathia cheap. If they take part in incremental bidding, however, there's a chance another team breaks it's limit on CC. If someone bid $125 million, then $135 million, maybe they feel they've invested so much time in trying to obtain Sabathia's services that they are willing to break their $140 million limit and go to $145 or $150 million. If, however, that limit is met with the first bid, there's no reason to even get started. So by trying to drive out all the other bidders, the Yankees might actually save money over using Melvin's rational strategy.
The department will fall under the auspices of Tony Blengino, a longtime baseball stats analyst and a special assistant to new Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik. Details of the department's mandate and size are still to be worked out, but the move could vault the Mariners from their perceived Stone Age approach to stats to one in which they're seen as one of the game's more progressive franchises.
"We want to take all the information at our disposal and combine it with our scouting," Blengino said Friday.
Good for them. They've used Matt Olkin as a consultant, and it's not clear if that relationship will continue. If you're looking for a job in this area, it's a good time to send your resume to the Mariners!
According to the Dodgers' website, the team has pulled its initial offer to free agent outfielder Manny Ramirez. What that means exactly remains to be seen because the team says it will continue to negotiate with him.
I find this a strange negotiating strategy. At this point, they'd be bidding against themselves. Until there is a better bid on the table, why withdraw the offer? I suppose it's possible that no other team bids for Manny, and then the Dodgers come back with a lower offer, but the probability of that is pretty low.
The fact of the matter is that the effects of the recession will be felt by the majority of the 171 free agents (almost seven full team rosters) that have now placed themselves on the open market. It would not be surprising to quietly see the Jays and many others of their financial ilk enter the New Year without inking any major free agents, waiting into mid-January for the panic among the multitude of remaining players to set in when bargains can be had.
It might be a good winter for free agents to take one or two guaranteed seasons, instead of holding out; they can then explore free agency again when the world economy has had a chance to rebound.
Even at the high end, teams are unlikely to go overboard. If you don't get Sabathia, you can alway land Sheets, Dempster or Lowe, or trade for Jake Peavy.
The Yankees have officially tendered an offer to CC Sabathia, ESPN's Buster Olney reports.
Sabathia, the 2007 AL Cy Young winner, split last season between the Indians and Brewers (17-10 2.70).
The Yankees offered a six-year deal worth more than $137.5 million, Olney reports.
Let's call in $140 million, or $23 million per year. That seems to be a good place to start. He's worth more than that per year, but teams may not wish to go that far out in terms of seasons.
"Mark, you are a once-in-a-lifetime player, especially to a franchise like ours. The Nationals see you as the foundation, someone with deep local ties who could be the face of our franchise for the next [six/eight/ten] years. We will build this team around you, and when we're ready to win it all - and we're closer than people think - you will have been part something truly special.
"Nowhere else in baseball can give you what you can get here, Mark. We're not only just down the road from your hometown. We're also the nation's capital. You'll have congressmen and Supreme Court justices watching you nightly. You might be a regular guest at the White House, given the President-Elect's love of sports.
"Face it: You can never own L.A., or Boston - at least not as long as Kobe and Tom Brady are alive. But you can own this town, Mark. It yours if you want it."
The Nationals minor league teams did well, and that's often a precursor to major league improvement.
It appears the ESPN blogs are no longer behind the Insider subscription wall. I can see Rob Neyer's blog and Peter Gammon's blog. Is this sweeps week or did ESPN finally wise up?
Update: It looks like Jayson Stark's blog is still behind the wall. Still having Neyer and Law free is great.
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2008, First Basemen Permalink
The Probabilistic Model of Range survey continues with first basemen:
Team First Basemen PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only
Team
In Play
Actual Outs
Predicted Outs
DER
Predicted DER
Ratio
Cardinals
4597
363
330.17
0.079
0.072
109.94
Rays
4264
337
309.47
0.079
0.073
108.90
Astros
4292
352
334.44
0.082
0.078
105.25
Angels
4374
348
332.57
0.080
0.076
104.64
Reds
4299
340
326.62
0.079
0.076
104.10
Orioles
4540
330
317.28
0.073
0.070
104.01
Braves
4383
309
301.26
0.070
0.069
102.57
Giants
4232
306
298.46
0.072
0.071
102.53
Mariners
4512
312
305.65
0.069
0.068
102.08
Padres
4419
314
308.13
0.071
0.070
101.90
Athletics
4285
287
282.84
0.067
0.066
101.47
Cubs
4156
339
334.40
0.082
0.080
101.38
Mets
4335
323
319.48
0.075
0.074
101.10
Pirates
4683
293
290.12
0.063
0.062
100.99
White Sox
4409
295
292.85
0.067
0.066
100.73
Red Sox
4232
300
298.07
0.071
0.070
100.65
Blue Jays
4215
346
345.24
0.082
0.082
100.22
Rangers
4667
292
292.72
0.063
0.063
99.75
Dodgers
4265
288
290.00
0.068
0.068
99.31
Rockies
4535
311
318.74
0.069
0.070
97.57
Phillies
4396
335
345.93
0.076
0.079
96.84
Tigers
4536
258
267.90
0.057
0.059
96.31
Brewers
4354
299
311.39
0.069
0.072
96.02
Royals
4413
270
282.47
0.061
0.064
95.58
Nationals
4417
279
292.73
0.063
0.066
95.31
Indians
4513
276
290.25
0.061
0.064
95.09
Yankees
4349
270
286.22
0.062
0.066
94.33
Marlins
4338
296
314.60
0.068
0.073
94.09
Diamondbacks
4224
292
311.45
0.069
0.074
93.76
Twins
4607
262
283.33
0.057
0.061
92.47
As you might expect from the ranking of the top two National League teams, Pujols and Berkman competed with the glove as well as the bat:
Individual First Basemen PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player
In Play
Actual Outs
Predicted Outs
DER
Predicted DER
Ratio
Albert Pujols
3833
310
275.70
0.081
0.072
112.44
Carlos Pena
3428
272
250.39
0.079
0.073
108.63
Rich Aurilia
1398
94
88.21
0.067
0.063
106.57
Lance Berkman
3899
329
309.21
0.084
0.079
106.40
Mark Teixeira
4009
322
302.91
0.080
0.076
106.30
Kevin Millar
3607
264
250.96
0.073
0.070
105.20
Joey Votto
3686
300
285.79
0.081
0.078
104.97
Todd Helton
2272
165
158.79
0.073
0.070
103.91
Casey Kotchman
3659
268
259.14
0.073
0.071
103.42
Paul Konerko
3069
214
207.95
0.070
0.068
102.91
Kevin Youkilis
2835
212
206.26
0.075
0.073
102.78
Adrian Gonzalez
4302
307
300.33
0.071
0.070
102.22
Derrek Lee
3848
322
315.59
0.084
0.082
102.03
Daric Barton
3322
211
207.92
0.064
0.063
101.48
Carlos Delgado
4088
306
305.60
0.075
0.075
100.13
Lyle Overbay
3919
330
329.98
0.084
0.084
100.01
James Loney
4023
267
267.57
0.066
0.067
99.79
Chris Davis
1295
81
81.23
0.063
0.063
99.72
Miguel Cairo
1223
84
84.91
0.069
0.069
98.93
Adam LaRoche
3647
224
226.60
0.061
0.062
98.85
Aaron Boone
1040
61
62.74
0.059
0.060
97.23
Richie Sexson
2103
133
137.24
0.063
0.065
96.91
Ryan Howard
4254
322
336.79
0.076
0.079
95.61
Nick Swisher
1340
81
84.91
0.060
0.063
95.40
Prince Fielder
4133
280
293.92
0.068
0.071
95.26
Chad Tracy
1496
110
115.89
0.074
0.077
94.92
Ross Gload
2727
163
171.75
0.060
0.063
94.91
John Bowker
1607
104
110.60
0.065
0.069
94.03
Miguel Cabrera
3772
220
234.22
0.058
0.062
93.93
Ryan Garko
3323
198
211.16
0.060
0.064
93.77
Conor Jackson
1696
109
117.40
0.064
0.069
92.85
Sean Casey
1042
65
70.15
0.062
0.067
92.65
Justin Morneau
4289
242
261.41
0.056
0.061
92.57
Jason Giambi
2795
164
177.51
0.059
0.064
92.39
Garrett Atkins
1638
101
110.77
0.062
0.068
91.18
Mike Jacobs
2860
175
194.95
0.061
0.068
89.77
Year after year Albert Pujols shows his defensive skill at first base. Lance Berkman is up there, also, making the MVP argument between the two that much closer. Mark Teixeira also offers an excellent glove to go along with his fine offense.
The most surprising ranking to me, however, is Justin Morneau. Justin is still young and shouldn't have lost a step. He's someone worth looking at in more detail. Of course, at the very bottom is Mike Jacobs, giving Royals fans another reason to dislike the trade.
The Yankees and Angels could be next in line. At season's end, Peavy said he doesn't want to go to an American League team, but during the GM meetings at Dana Point last week, Towers said Peavy might be open to going to the Yankees and Angels.
If the Yankees and Angels become viable trade partners, Towers' leverage would increase, but because Peavy's consent is needed for a trade, that leverage is contingent on Peavy reversing his position. Barry Axelrod, Peavy's agent, gave no indication Thursday night that Peavy suddenly has become excited about going to the AL, but he did not rule it out.
That Kei Igawa deal is looking better all the time. Igawa, Kennedy and one of the Yankees outfielders to San Diego for Peavy. His contract is relatively cheap for an ace, and gives the Yankees plenty of money leftover to sign Sabathia. That would give New York a rotation of CC, Peavy, Wang, Chamberlain and either Pettitte or Hughes as a fifth starter, or even Mike Mussina if he still wants to pitch. Not bad, and they'd still have enough money left over to sign either Manny Ramirez or Mark Teixeira.
Randy instructed us not to file for free agency until we made every effort to reach an agreement. The Diamondbacks have a budget based on their club's financial situation and obviously viewed Randy's contract in that context. Randy considered every reasonable compromise including offering to take a 50% pay cut, all to remain a Diamondback. However, the economic situation did not lend itself to an agreement.
Consequently, Randy is forced to file for free agency and consider all opportunities to further his career. He hopes to find a team where he can continue to pitch at a high level and contribute to another World Championship.
Randy and his family live in Arizona and he will always be a Diamondback at heart. Most of all, Randy will miss the overwhelming support the fans have shown him throughout the years. He wishes the Diamondbacks great success in 2009 and beyond."
I wonder if a team will sign him to a contract. He pitched well at times in 2008 but poorly at others. He still strikes out a high number of batters. Maybe he could be a Sunday pitcher for some club to keep his starts low.
Swisher is not here to play CF. Cashman made that clear. He's here to play 1B. Cashman did not close the door to anything else happening (he never does), but it's pretty evident that they see Swisher playing 1B and having the ability to play LF or RF on occasion. That would enable them to keep Jorge Posada in the lineup once in a while as the 1B.
...
This move allows the Yankees to focus their attention (and money) on starting pitching. Mark Teixeira just lost a lot of leverage.
I wonder how much of that last bit was the plan all along. The Yankees might see how the bidding goes on Teixeira, and if it's not too high sweep in at the last moment with a great bid. That's pretty much how they got Johnny Damon. They made him a tough to refuse offer and gave him very little time to accept or reject it. It's easy enough to move Nick to the outfield if Cashman manages to land Teixeira anyway.
More likely, however, is that they'll buy two starting pitchers.
The New York Yankees acquired center fielder-first baseman Nick Swisher in a trade with the Chicago White Sox on Thursday.
The Yankees traded infielder Wilson Betemit and minor league pitchers Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez to Chicago in exchange for the switch-hitting Swisher and minor league pitcher Kanekoa Texeira.
Swisher is coming off a very disappointing season. I would have thought moving from Oakland to Chicago would have improved his power because of the park. He did hit well in Chicago, but was abysmal on the road. His career road numbers are much better, so if 2008 was a fluke, the Yankees are getting a good hitter.
I'm not sure he's the answer at first, however. I would rather see him in right, and have the Yankees sign a real power hitter at first base.
As a minor league reliever, Texeira does exactly what a team wants; lots of strikeouts, few walks and a minuscule number of home runs.
New York dumps Wilson Betemit, but gives up two decent enough pitchers in Nunez and Marquez. In general, the trade makes the Yankees younger, and the White Sox get a utility infielder and two pitchers who might help them in the future.
If the Yankees play Swisher in the outfield, I like the deal for them. If they think he's the answer at first base, I think they'll be disappointed.
Voters seemed to be impressed with save totals, as Francisco Rodriguez tallied seven second place votes and eleven third place votes to finish in third. Mariano Rivera picked up three third place votes as well.
Daisuke Matsuzaka and Ervin Santana rounded out the field of pitchers receiving votes. I don't really have a problem with any of these pitchers receiving votes, I just can't see leaving Halladay off any ballot.
Congratulations to Cliff Lee on recovering from an awful 2007 season to come back and win the highest honor for a pitcher!
I'm not the only baseball blogger excited about the new Blackberry Storm. I've kept my Motorola Q way beyond the upgrade date (if you consider 8 months way beyond) because I've been waiting for the phone. From what I've seen, the storm may be it. I can't wait to get one in my hands to see if it really supports blogging the way I want to do it on a hand-held device. It looks like it supports copy and paste of URLs, which is the one thing my Q lacks.
I don't really know what else I can add to this news. I, for one, am glad the Yanks' $46-million investment is paying dividends for some team. That 6.66 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in 71.2 big league innings makes me wonder just how bad AAA hitters are anyway.
Now, can we trade him?
That's a good question. He's not exactly blowing away minor league hitters. His 3.45 MiLB ERA is good but not great. My guess is put him in San Diego where get gets to face the weak hitters of the NL West in a tough park for hitters, and he'll get by as a fifth starter. Maybe the Yankees can package him for Peavy?
The 51-year-old Gardenhire, who was runner-up to Tampa Bay's Joe Maddon in the AL Manager of the Year voting, took over as Twins skipper before the 2002 season. He has led the team to four AL Central titles in his first seven years, posting winning records in six of those seven campaigns.
Only Tom Kelly, with 1,140 victories, has more wins than Gardenhire with the Twins.
It's good to see success rewarded. Ron's also one of the longest tenured managers right now, only trailing Bobby Cox, Tony La Russa and Mike Scioscia.
The MLB Network hired Harold Reynolds and Al Leiter. I like the way the MLB Network is putting together their studio show. I've worked with both men and I think there's a good chance this group will give Baseball Tonight a run for their money.
The BBWAA bestows the American League Cy Young award this afternoon. The smart money rests on Cliff Lee, who both won the most games in the American League and posted the lowest ERA. His main competition for the award comes from 20-game winner Roy Halladay.
Lee came out of the gate strong, winning his first six starts and throwing nine shutout innings in his seventh, only to see Cleveland lose the game in extra innings. He went through two rough patches, on at the end of May and one at the end of September. Overall, however, he allowed two runs or less in 21 of his 31 starts, and two earned runs or less in 22 of those starts.
Lee's strengths lay in his control and home runs allowed. He walked just 34 men on the season, a little over one per start and 1.4 per nine innings. He gave up just 12 home runs, or 10.7 per 200 innings pitched. He did allow a higher batting average with runners in scoring position compared to his overall BA allowed, but he only saw 165 at bats out of 847 total with men in scoring position. He just didn't allow men past first base very often.
The best case for Roy Halladay comes from the competition he faced. Lee, playing in the AL Central, faced Kansas City five times and the Twins four times. He went a combined 7-1 against those teams with a 2.69 ERA. Halladay, competing in the AL East, faced the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees a total of 16 times, nearly half his starts. In those 16 games, Halladay posted a 10-6 record with a 2.96 ERA in 118 2/3 innings. That's an average of 7 1/3 innings per start against three good teams.
Halladay posted the same walks per nine as Lee, struck out batters at a higher rate, but also gave up a few more home runs. Like Lee, Halladay gave the opposition very few chances with runners in scoring position, and allowed just a .214 BA in the situation.
This is a tough one for me to pick. Lee leads in ERA, and when he was on was absolutely brilliant. Halladay faced much tougher competition during the season and responded to the challenge. Both deserve the award. Lee will probably win, but Halladay's tougher competition would likely push my first place vote to Roy.
Matt Holliday hardly could have expected to land with the low-budget Oakland Athletics.
The A's completed their trade with the Colorado Rockies for the star outfielder Wednesday, securing the big bat Oakland sought for the middle of its order.
''Originally, it was a little bit of a surprise considering I've never been traded before,'' Holliday said. ''I spent my first 11 years of professional baseball in the Rockies organization. Any time you make a change there's a bit of an unknown.''
Colorado received right-handed reliever Huston Street, lefty starter Greg Smith and promising outfielder Carlos Gonzalez from the A's. The clubs reached a tentative agreement Monday, but had to wait for the results of physicals and other details to be worked out.
Now I wonder what other moves might come as a surprise from Oakland this winter? Maybe they'll sign a big name free agent!
The Baseball Musings Radio Show is coming up tonight at 8 PM EST on TPS Radio. You can watch, listen and chat here. If you want to leave a question, feel free to do so in the comments to this post.
TPS Radio is on channel 100. At the bottom of the player you'll see a control with an up and down arrow. Click on that and select channel 100 from the list.
I agree 100% with the first four spots in the National League voting. Lou Piniella got the Cubs out in front early and kept them in first place most of the season. He managed his offense, his starting staff and his bullpen well. My favorite moment from the season was when Lou came out to get Ted Lilly, who had pitched himself into a tough situation. Lilly didn't want to come out of the game and glared at Lou as the manager walked out to the mound. This was the kind of behavior that didn't go over well when Lilly pitched in Toronto. As Piniella approached the mound, however, he saw the glare and appeared to say to Lilly something like, you want him, go get him (meaning the batter). Lilly walked the next batter, and Lou removed him then, but he turned what could be a tense moment into a chance to show confidence in one of his players.
Charlie Manuel, who finished second and received eight first place votes helped the Phillies through the ups and downs to an NL East title (these votes are based on the regular season). Fredi Gonzalez gets the "team did better than expected vote." Joe Torre comes in fourth, leading the Dodgers to the playoffs thanks to a weak division, the Manny trade, and Joe finally playing the youngsters over the veterans.
Joe Maddon Photo: Icon SMI
In the AL, Maddon ran away with the win. This was clearly due to the Rays far outperforming expectations, even the 88 wins predicted by PECOTA. My Maddon moment came in the playoffs. Evan Longoria's mechanics were off, so Maddon took him out to the batting cage and put him through some pattern recognition drills with numbered tennis balls. That turned him around, at least until the World Series.
The surprise to me was Gardenhire's finish in second place. I'm attributing that to coming close to the playoffs with the loss of Johan Santana. However, the Angels under Mike Scioscia out-won their Pythagorean projection, and the White Sox were as much an underdog as the Twins in the AL Central, but actually won it. Ozzie Guillen deserves some credit for that, but maybe his profanity laced rants lost him the press. I would have voted Maddon, Scioscia, Guillen 1-2-3.
Congratulations to Joe Maddon and Lou Piniella on their well deserved awards!
"Well, to tell you the truth, it was something going down between the Red Sox and Manny Ramirez that I can never really break that down for you because there's some personal reasons that he has with our owners and I never got to the bottom of it, and [he's] got his feelings, you know, Manny was, he got to the point that he really wanted to get to play for someone else.
"I'll tell you one thing, I'm the kind of guy that I look at the positive side of everything and Manny, I get to learn a lot of things from Manny. Manny's one of the guys that worked hard every day to have some really good performances out there, and I never saw Manny not getting prepared to play. . . now he wasn't happy here, everybody knows that. And when a relationship get to the point, you gotta make a move just like we did, and you go from there."
"We have been listening to fans, friends, and family about the challenges they are facing in light of the current adverse economic conditions," said Red Sox president and CEO Larry Lucchino in a press release. "We are also grateful for the unwavering faith and support our fans have shown us year after year and we hope our ownership's decision to hold prices for the upcoming season will in some way help ease the burden on Red Sox Nation."
The last time the Red Sox held ticket prices across the board was 1995 -- the season following the damaging strike that led to the cancellation of the '94 World Series.
I wonder how much getting a cut of ticket reselling plays into this? The Red Sox probably could drop prices, and still make out well as long as fans are willing to buy on one of the approved secondary markets. So the Red Sox get to look like good guys for keeping prices stable in a recession, while still making money due to the high demand for their product.
This looks like a move toward a market based approach to ticket selling, which I believe will benefit baseball in the long run.
Doesn't the BBWAA give the voters a list of rookies? Voting for Volquez shows that these writers were derelict in their fact checking, but there are a number of players where it's tough to tell. At least set up a page on their website listing all rookies! (That page might exist. There is a member's only section. If it is there, these three should be kicked out of the club.)
Remember this the next time someone tells you that bloggers can't join the group.
Update: In looking at Volquez, I understand why the mistake was made. Keith Law assumes the innings are cumulative. They are not. If you do not break rookie status one year, the innings reset. So Volquez never reached 50 innings in a single season. He did spend too many days on the roster for Texas, however, in one of those seasons, that's why he's not a rookie. These voters still should have checked with Elias.
A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).
I've seen this rule with seasons left out making me think the numbers only applied to the previous season. I'm sorry for the error.
It appears the Yankees signed Damaso Marte to a three-year deal worth a total of $12 million. In his brief stint with the Yankees in 2008, Marte's walks were way above his career average, which is very good, but his strikeouts and homers were fine. I'll take the walks as a fluke right now and call this a good signing at a good price.
Cal Ripken Jr. will travel to Nicaragua on behalf of the State Department from November 13-18 to bring the Ripken Baseball brand of instruction to over 500 Nicaraguan children and 100 youth coaches. Throughout the trip, Ripken will be blogging on MASNSports.com about his experience. Cal's blog will contain trip updates, stories about the children he meets, reflections about the country's baseball culture and photographs from his travels.
During the five day trip, Ripken will visit the cities of Managua, Leon and Granada. He will be joined by Hall of Famer, former teammate and Nicaraguan native Dennis Martinez. The 23-year Major League veteran and 4-time All Star finished his playing career in 1998 with 245 victories and a 3.70 ERA. The duo will be joined by two instructors from Ripken Baseball.
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2008, Leftfielders Permalink
The survery of range continues with leftfielders. The following table shows how the thirty teams fared at the position:
Team Leftfielders PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only
Team
In Play
Actual Outs
Predicted Outs
DER
Predicted DER
Ratio
Royals
4413
368
353.21
0.083
0.080
104.19
Indians
4513
302
290.89
0.067
0.064
103.82
Rays
4264
344
331.81
0.081
0.078
103.67
Nationals
4417
350
339.72
0.079
0.077
103.03
Mets
4335
308
299.09
0.071
0.069
102.98
Diamondbacks
4224
306
298.79
0.072
0.071
102.41
Braves
4383
279
273.49
0.064
0.062
102.02
Brewers
4354
305
299.07
0.070
0.069
101.98
White Sox
4409
293
287.74
0.066
0.065
101.83
Rangers
4667
323
317.21
0.069
0.068
101.83
Orioles
4540
362
355.59
0.080
0.078
101.80
Athletics
4285
333
328.28
0.078
0.077
101.44
Astros
4292
282
278.71
0.066
0.065
101.18
Padres
4419
310
306.42
0.070
0.069
101.17
Cardinals
4597
312
308.84
0.068
0.067
101.02
Red Sox
4232
292
291.37
0.069
0.069
100.22
Dodgers
4265
286
285.62
0.067
0.067
100.13
Tigers
4536
356
355.77
0.078
0.078
100.06
Giants
4232
308
308.26
0.073
0.073
99.92
Yankees
4349
316
316.76
0.073
0.073
99.76
Angels
4374
285
286.29
0.065
0.065
99.55
Cubs
4156
302
304.23
0.073
0.073
99.27
Blue Jays
4215
270
272.75
0.064
0.065
98.99
Pirates
4683
293
299.34
0.063
0.064
97.88
Reds
4299
280
288.41
0.065
0.067
97.08
Rockies
4535
282
290.95
0.062
0.064
96.92
Marlins
4338
289
299.06
0.067
0.069
96.64
Mariners
4512
324
336.18
0.072
0.075
96.38
Twins
4607
306
327.83
0.066
0.071
93.34
Phillies
4396
260
279.09
0.059
0.063
93.16
As in rightfield, there doesn't seem to be a huge correlation between doing well in left and winning. The Royals displayed the best defense at the position, while the Phillies came out at the bottom of the pack.
The list of individuals in left shows that very few teams employ a regular at the position:
Individual Leftfielder PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player
In Play
Actual Outs
Predicted Outs
DER
Predicted DER
Ratio
Skip Schumaker
1085
85
73.79
0.078
0.068
115.20
David DeJesus
1522
136
121.91
0.089
0.080
111.56
Brandon Boggs
1818
131
118.10
0.072
0.065
110.92
Matt Joyce
1249
94
84.77
0.075
0.068
110.89
Ben Francisco
2021
150
138.34
0.074
0.068
108.43
Juan Pierre
1816
125
116.83
0.069
0.064
107.00
Willie Harris
1685
145
135.55
0.086
0.080
106.97
Carl Crawford
2715
231
217.97
0.085
0.080
105.98
Conor Jackson
1944
146
139.06
0.075
0.072
104.99
Gregor Blanco
1547
86
82.08
0.056
0.053
104.78
Jay Payton
1293
132
126.31
0.102
0.098
104.51
Luke Scott
2668
200
196.08
0.075
0.073
102.00
Johnny Damon
1998
155
152.00
0.078
0.076
101.97
Ryan Braun
3919
275
270.93
0.070
0.069
101.50
Wily Mo Pena
1260
99
97.68
0.079
0.078
101.35
Carlos Lee
2840
187
185.42
0.066
0.065
100.85
David Dellucci
1164
75
74.64
0.064
0.064
100.48
Adam Dunn
2942
210
209.06
0.071
0.071
100.45
Alfonso Soriano
2653
186
185.23
0.070
0.070
100.42
Fred Lewis
2622
178
177.57
0.068
0.068
100.24
Carlos Quentin
3465
228
228.42
0.066
0.066
99.81
Jack Cust
1753
129
129.74
0.074
0.074
99.43
Emil Brown
1229
89
89.70
0.072
0.073
99.21
Chase Headley
2159
156
157.62
0.072
0.073
98.97
Matt Holliday
3850
240
243.20
0.062
0.063
98.68
Manny Ramirez
2894
190
193.40
0.066
0.067
98.24
Adam Lind
1712
113
115.52
0.066
0.067
97.81
Xavier Nady
1212
87
89.04
0.072
0.073
97.71
Chris Duncan
1012
73
74.80
0.072
0.074
97.59
Raul Ibanez
4203
303
312.07
0.072
0.074
97.09
Garret Anderson
2113
144
148.53
0.068
0.070
96.95
Jose Guillen
1098
83
85.62
0.076
0.078
96.94
Luis Gonzalez
1547
105
109.32
0.068
0.071
96.05
David Murphy
1317
86
89.62
0.065
0.068
95.96
Josh Willingham
2551
166
173.80
0.065
0.068
95.51
Eric Byrnes
1209
76
80.12
0.063
0.066
94.86
Jason Bay
4215
254
268.19
0.060
0.064
94.71
Marcus Thames
1537
120
127.42
0.078
0.083
94.18
Delmon Young
4209
282
301.19
0.067
0.072
93.63
Pat Burrell
3646
202
223.39
0.055
0.061
90.42
Ryan Braun is the first player on the list on the field in left for over 3000 balls in play. Some of this was caused by injuries (Soriano, Matsui), but for the most part, managers mix and match at the position. The move to left was clearly the right one for Braun.
The other rankings of note belong to Manny Ramirez and Jason Bay. Manny actually did better than Jason in 2008. I'm going to need to break down the two by team to see how much the parks might have made a difference. Bay certainly looked better than Manny watching him play for the Red Sox.
All those late inning substitutions Charlie Manuel made for Pat Burrell looked proper, also. Pat ranks as the worst leftfielder in baseball in 2008, so it's no wonder Charlie wanted a better glove in left when the Phillies had the lead late.
Minnesota Twins reliever Pat Neshek will have ligament replacement surgery on his right elbow and is expected to miss next season.
The right-hander re-injured his elbow last week during a throwing session at the team's facility in Florida. He had an MRI exam Tuesday, which revealed a complete tear of his ulnar collateral ligament. The procedure could take place next week.
After a standout season in 2007 as Minnesota's primary setup man, Neshek sustained a partial tear of the ligament during a game in May. The Twins recommended rest and rehabilitation rather than surgery at the time. Neshek said last month his recovery was on track and he'd be ready for spring training.
That's too bad. I wonder if more players will opt for surgery first after this incident.
I drove my daughter back to school this afternoon. As we approached Boston, we switched to Mike FM (they play everything). They play Margaritaville, and when it finishes, I hear a familiar piano introduction. I say to my daughter, "This is a great combination, Margaritaville followed by Werewolves of London." She then tells me I'm listening to a Kid Rock song. So disappointing.
Update: Here's the vote from the BBWAA. Webb came in second, Santana third. The voters split down the middle on which should be in first, but Webb was the consensus second choice. It appears that wins still carry a lot of weight among some sports writers.
There was not a lot of support for Sabathia. Given the amount of ink and pixels devoted to his candidacy during the second half of the season, I expected him to get more support. Instead, he received one first, second and third place vote.
Congratulations to Tim Lincecum on his outstanding season!
McDougald, the second batter of the game, reached for a low pitch and lined it back at Score. The ball crashed into his face, breaking his nose, cutting his right eyelid and causing swelling and hemmorhaging of the cheekbone and eyebrow.
Third baseman Al Smith picked up the carom and threw McDougald out at first.
Score was knocked to the ground, bleeding profusely. He was immediately surrounded by teammates and Yankee players.
"I didn't see the ball until it was a foot or two from my face," said Score, who threw with an uninhibited motion in which his body turned his back to the batter. Sometimes he turned so hard he expected that he might eventually get hit on the back.
"I could feel the blood," said the pitcher, who never lost consciousness. "People were all around me. Rocky must have set a record getting in from right field." Colavito was Score's roommate and best friend. They had come up through the minor leagues together.
In his first two years in the majors, Score struck out 508 batters while allowing just 320 hits. He pitched into the 1962 season but without the great results.
At the end of 1963, Score tried announcing and stayed on for 34 seasons with the Indians. I have no doubt his fans in Cleveland will miss him tremendously.
"I see it this way: Someone who doesn't take his team to the playoffs doesn't deserve to win the MVP," Pujols said in Spanish at a news conference organized by the Dominican Republic's sports ministry.
Of course, new facts may have changed Albert's mind.
The Padres withdrew their offer to Trevor Hoffman. He came as close a one can imagine to being a life-long Padre, having pitched 28 games for the Marlins in 1993 before joining San Diego. At age 40, he posted his highest ERA since 1995, but still strikes out batters at a high rate and keeps his walks low. It was home runs that did him in in 2008. He'll improve some team's bullpen in 2009.
J.C. Bradbury comments on the latest HGH inannity. His conclusion:
I guess I can't blame MLB. It's the cheapest way to fight a public relations problem--that's all this is. And the sad part is that HGH's prohibition signals to potential users that it works, and the drug has many bad side effects. If anything, the war on growth hormone will do more harm than good. As I have suggested before, the best solution is to legalize it.
The BBWAA confers a Cy Young Award on a National League pitcher today. For me it comes down to Johan Santana and Tim Lincecum. Santana led the majors in ERA. Lincecum, however, struck out over 2.5 more batters per nine than Johan, while allowing home runs at half the rate.
Both are extremely deserving, although my guess is Tim's better record will sway voters. Let me point out that a big reason for LIncecum's low ERA, however, came from his six starts against the Padres. He posted an 0.62 ERA in those games.
Johan Santana Photo: Icon SMI
Santana, on the other hand, pitched the most against the Phillies, five times. His stats against one of the best offensive teams in the league were quite impressive. In other words, the Mets put Johan out for their toughest opponent and he came through.
If I had a ballot, it would be:
Johan Santana
Tim Lincecum
CC Sabathia
Sabathia's short NL season deserves recognition, but it's tough for me to put him ahead of two pitchers who performed extremely well for a whole season in the league. We'll find out the winner at 2 PM EST this afternoon.
The Yankees will be announcing "new fan-facing technologies to be featured at the new Yankee Stadium."
Wow, new faces for fans. I wonder if that hurts?
I hope they mean interfacing technologies. WiFi throughout the stadium, for example, that not only allows you to surf the web but order food, see replays, etc, all from your cellphone.
The agent for starting pitcher Scott Olsen and outfielder Josh Willingham said Monday they are being traded from the Florida Marlins to the Washington Nationals. Agent Matt Sosnick said a news conference in the Washington area was being planned for Tuesday.
"They've both voiced they're excited for a fresh start. Neither of them has really played for anybody else except the Marlins," Sosnick said in a telephone interview. "They're both trying to process the information."
Willingham is a solid player. He should improve both the OBA and power of the Nationals, although that's not difficult to accomplish given their poor play in 2008. Olson will give the Nationals innings, but it's disconcerting to see his strikeout rate fall for the second year in a row. He struck out 8.3 batter per nine innings in 2006, 5.0 in 2008. Both players qualified for arbitration this season, however, and the Marlins would rather part with good but not great players rather than pay them a lot of money.
These moves, of course, open spots in the outfield and rotation, possibly filled by the two players acquired from Detroit last season, Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin. The Nationals get better, but they're still a long way from contention. Willingham and Olsen are complementary players, not the centerpiece of a championship team.
Update: Does it seem the Marlins have shortened the player life cycle? There are teams, (the Athletics and Braves come to mind) that get as much as they can out of a player during the six years of control, and are then happy to let them walk via free agency and get a draft pick, or trade them just before they walk for prospects. The Marlins are now taking that down to three years. Their philosophy appears to be, pay someone as little as possible for as long as possible, then trade them for prospects. That way, there's always young, cheap talent coming up. Both are predicated on young players being just as good as older veterans. However, the traditional way of handling this (six years) allows teams to capture a player's prime.
In the case of Willingham, the Marlins did just that. He'll be 30 in 2009. So they also managed to get Willingham's prime at an extremely low cost. The Marlins front office really knows how to manage a roster and get a lot for a little.
On this Veterans Day, I'd like to thank all past and present military readers of Baseball Musings for their service. For those who wear the uniform today, I appreciate the dangerous job you do, and hope that each of you comes home safely.
Winfield was Vice President, so I guess being made Executive Vice President/Senior Adviser is a promotion. Paul DePodesta was Special Assistant of Baseball Operations and Executive Vice President sounds a little more official, but from what I can tell, everybody will be basically doing the same thing.
Yes, I've gotten promotions like that in the past. Same job, same pay different title.
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2008, Rightfielders Permalink
The Probabilistic Model of Range reports continue with rightfielders. First, the team data:
Team Rightfielders PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only
Team
In Play
Actual Outs
Predicted Outs
DER
Predicted DER
Ratio
Twins
4607
397
374.04
0.086
0.081
106.14
Blue Jays
4215
303
286.97
0.072
0.068
105.58
Giants
4232
392
372.99
0.093
0.088
105.10
Indians
4513
374
358.85
0.083
0.080
104.22
Padres
4419
339
329.60
0.077
0.075
102.85
Phillies
4396
318
310.41
0.072
0.071
102.45
Red Sox
4232
325
318.64
0.077
0.075
102.00
Braves
4383
313
307.02
0.071
0.070
101.95
Rangers
4667
382
375.27
0.082
0.080
101.79
Nationals
4417
353
346.81
0.080
0.079
101.78
Marlins
4338
345
340.25
0.080
0.078
101.40
Cubs
4156
333
329.14
0.080
0.079
101.17
Cardinals
4597
362
360.58
0.079
0.078
100.39
Diamondbacks
4224
269
268.33
0.064
0.064
100.25
Athletics
4285
377
376.50
0.088
0.088
100.13
Mariners
4512
309
310.73
0.068
0.069
99.44
Dodgers
4265
278
279.64
0.065
0.066
99.41
Brewers
4354
316
318.38
0.073
0.073
99.25
Pirates
4683
386
389.32
0.082
0.083
99.15
Royals
4413
334
336.94
0.076
0.076
99.13
Orioles
4540
338
341.58
0.074
0.075
98.95
Mets
4335
356
360.14
0.082
0.083
98.85
Astros
4292
357
365.06
0.083
0.085
97.79
Rays
4264
345
354.99
0.081
0.083
97.19
Reds
4299
327
338.05
0.076
0.079
96.73
Tigers
4536
301
311.48
0.066
0.069
96.64
White Sox
4409
296
308.31
0.067
0.070
96.01
Angels
4374
308
322.64
0.070
0.074
95.46
Yankees
4349
301
316.77
0.069
0.073
95.02
Rockies
4535
249
273.59
0.055
0.060
91.01
It seems rightfielder defense didn't have that much influence on playoff teams. Five of the eight post-season teams finished in the bottom half of the majors. Here's a look at the individuals:
Individual Rightfielder PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player
In Play
Actual Outs
Predicted Outs
DER
Predicted DER
Ratio
Alex Rios
2373
170
156.05
0.072
0.066
108.94
Denard Span
2099
192
176.27
0.091
0.084
108.92
Franklin Gutierrez
2400
224
207.25
0.093
0.086
108.08
Jayson Werth
1964
143
133.49
0.073
0.068
107.12
Randy Winn
3247
309
291.22
0.095
0.090
106.10
Matt Kemp
1391
97
91.48
0.070
0.066
106.04
Endy Chavez
1176
109
103.84
0.093
0.088
104.97
Austin Kearns
2268
187
179.28
0.082
0.079
104.30
Michael Cuddyer
1640
123
118.33
0.075
0.072
103.95
Justin Upton
2531
175
168.66
0.069
0.067
103.76
Kosuke Fukudome
3164
246
240.12
0.078
0.076
102.45
Jeff Francoeur
4016
284
278.05
0.071
0.069
102.14
David Murphy
1279
107
104.84
0.084
0.082
102.06
Ryan Sweeney
1462
136
133.41
0.093
0.091
101.94
Ichiro Suzuki
2491
176
172.83
0.071
0.069
101.83
Mark Teahen
2292
185
181.68
0.081
0.079
101.82
Brian Giles
3845
276
271.51
0.072
0.071
101.65
Jeremy Hermida
3310
266
263.10
0.080
0.079
101.10
J.D. Drew
2658
184
183.15
0.069
0.069
100.47
Gabe Gross
2225
186
185.51
0.084
0.083
100.26
Nick Markakis
4353
329
328.98
0.076
0.076
100.00
Corey Hart
4134
304
305.57
0.074
0.074
99.49
Brad Wilkerson
1428
95
95.58
0.067
0.067
99.39
Ryan Church
2158
180
181.26
0.083
0.084
99.31
Geoff Jenkins
1974
141
142.41
0.071
0.072
99.01
Elijah Dukes
1840
137
138.55
0.074
0.075
98.88
Shin-Soo Choo
1255
89
90.51
0.071
0.072
98.33
Hunter Pence
4112
341
349.04
0.083
0.085
97.70
Emil Brown
1264
112
114.89
0.089
0.091
97.49
Jay Bruce
1777
143
147.07
0.080
0.083
97.23
Jose Guillen
1673
121
124.68
0.072
0.075
97.05
Andre Ethier
2620
171
176.94
0.065
0.068
96.64
Ryan Ludwick
3037
232
240.07
0.076
0.079
96.64
Vladimir Guerrero
2541
180
186.37
0.071
0.073
96.58
Xavier Nady
2497
199
207.14
0.080
0.083
96.07
Magglio Ordonez
3588
220
229.25
0.061
0.064
95.96
Jermaine Dye
3981
266
277.60
0.067
0.070
95.82
Bobby Abreu
3933
271
284.58
0.069
0.072
95.23
Eric Hinske
1001
88
92.73
0.088
0.093
94.90
Ken Griffey Jr.
2257
157
166.16
0.070
0.074
94.48
Gary Matthews Jr.
1013
77
82.08
0.076
0.081
93.81
Brad Hawpe
3645
188
213.67
0.052
0.059
87.99
Denard Span not only improved the Twins leadoff slot, he also did a great job tracking down balls in rightfield. While I'm not surprised to see older players like Ken Griffey and Bobby Abreu near the bottom of the list, I didn't expect to see Gary Matthews, Jr. there.
Ichiro Suzuki also adds some interest. He came out near the top in center, but in the middle in right. It's a bit of a mystery why he does better in center than he does in right.
Via Phillies Nation, Sports Illustrated reports the Athletics are close to a deal to land Matt Holliday. That would be an unusual deal for Oakland, trading for an established star. Are they trying to capture the draft picks they would receive when he leaves for free agency? Or, after two losing seasons are they afraid they are going to lose fans if they don't start winning again?
The A's are working to complete a trade with the Rockies that would bring Matt Holliday to Oakland in exchange for reliever Huston Street, starter Greg Smith and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, major-league sources said Monday.
Smith confirmed Monday that he is flying to Denver for a physical in the next day or two.
"I don't know how official everything is," Smith said. "All I know is I've been called, and I'm flying to Denver probably tomorrow."
He emphasized he does not know any details about other players who might be involved in a deal.
Street is the only sure thing in the deal. Smith was a high strikeout, low walk pitcher in the minors, but a low strikeout, high walk pitcher his rookie season in the majors. Gonzalez put up okay OBA and power numbers in the minors, but very poor number in half a season in the majors. It's better than getting nothing for Holliday, but I really wonder if he wouldn't be worth more at the trading deadline.
Longoria belted sixty extra-base hits in just three quarters of a season. He also shone defensively as he prevented runs in the field and added runs at the plate, helping the Rays to their first winning season, first division title and first AL pennant. His 2008 seasonal age was just 22, so his ceiling is very high coming off that impressive rookie year. He did a great job justifying the large contract the Rays negotiated with him at the start of the season.
Geovany Soto Photo: Icon SMI
Soto teased Cubs fans with his high OBA in just 18 games in 2007. He lived up to that brief cup of coffee, posting a .364 OBA and a .504 slugging percentage in 2008. He was one of the reasons the Cubs put together one of their best seasons getting on base that I can remember. Like Longoria, Soto also smacked 60 extra-base hits on the season. Soto didn't do a great job of stopping the running game, only stopping 18 of 87 base stealers. The Cubs staff did turn in a low ERA, however, and the catcher should get some credit for that.
It's been fifteen years since a catcher won the prize. Mike Piazza was the last to take home the honor from behind the plate. It should be noted that all the catchers who won the award, starting with Johnny Bench in 1968, went on to excellent careers. In addition to Bench, the award went to Thurman Munson, Carlton Fisk, Benito Santiago and Sandy Alomar. That's good company.
Congratulations to both Evan Longoria and Geovany Soto on their well deserved Rookie of the Year awards!
FIOS signs up for the MLB Network and the extra innings package. Very good. At some point, I assume FIOS wil be available in my area, and I'd really like to have choices in my providers. I'l never go back to cable after years of bad quality and bad service, and I'm not crazy about Verizon, but at least competition might keep prices down.
Roe got his nickname at about three years of age when his family lived in Wild Cherry. Although Roe has given various versions of how the nickname came about, his response in an interview in the West Plains Gazette is likely the closest to the truth: "I had an uncle that came back from the first World War who hadn't ever seen me. He said, 'What's your name, young man?' And for some reason I said, 'Preacher.'...My mother said maybe it was because I liked the preacher we had at our church so well."
Mozeliak insisted Sunday that discussions involving Colorado Rockies left fielder Matt Holliday have ceased and that "nothing is imminent. That one's not happening -- at all."
Irritated that details of his discussions with Rockies general manager Dan O'Dowd had leaked, Mozeliak did not deny the seriousness of the talks but took exception to momentum assigned them.
"For me to say there were not serious discussions would be inaccurate," Mozeliak said. "But some of the details reported about it were misleading, at the very least. It was never my intention for it to become front-page news."
It appeared the Rockies wanted too many players for Holliday, who may walk at the end of next season to test free agency.
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2008, Third Basemen Permalink
The Blue Jays and Cardinals made a challenge trade at the start of the season, swapping Scott Rolen and Troy Glaus. Defensively, at least, the Blue Jays came out on top. Here are the Probabilistic Model of Range team rankings for third base:
Team Third Basemen PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only
Team
In Play
Actual Outs
Predicted Outs
DER
Predicted DER
Ratio
Blue Jays
4215
415
392.25
0.098
0.093
105.80
Mariners
4512
403
384.91
0.089
0.085
104.70
Red Sox
4232
440
423.21
0.104
0.100
103.97
Dodgers
4265
427
411.45
0.100
0.096
103.78
Angels
4374
391
377.04
0.089
0.086
103.70
Braves
4383
404
390.88
0.092
0.089
103.36
Rays
4264
420
406.66
0.098
0.095
103.28
Tigers
4536
471
458.72
0.104
0.101
102.68
Brewers
4354
396
387.21
0.091
0.089
102.27
White Sox
4409
463
455.46
0.105
0.103
101.66
Padres
4419
382
376.01
0.086
0.085
101.59
Astros
4292
408
402.20
0.095
0.094
101.44
Athletics
4285
385
380.25
0.090
0.089
101.25
Pirates
4683
445
442.19
0.095
0.094
100.64
Rockies
4535
412
410.31
0.091
0.090
100.41
Nationals
4417
416
415.43
0.094
0.094
100.14
Yankees
4349
379
378.81
0.087
0.087
100.05
Cubs
4156
341
342.34
0.082
0.082
99.61
Mets
4335
374
376.09
0.086
0.087
99.44
Indians
4513
419
423.48
0.093
0.094
98.94
Marlins
4338
370
375.82
0.085
0.087
98.45
Royals
4413
375
386.63
0.085
0.088
96.99
Phillies
4396
411
425.13
0.093
0.097
96.68
Rangers
4667
372
386.02
0.080
0.083
96.37
Diamondbacks
4224
350
363.76
0.083
0.086
96.22
Twins
4607
382
397.09
0.083
0.086
96.20
Cardinals
4597
416
432.51
0.090
0.094
96.18
Giants
4232
338
356.28
0.080
0.084
94.87
Reds
4299
337
356.45
0.078
0.083
94.54
Orioles
4540
421
446.86
0.093
0.098
94.21
I'm impressed that the Braves rank so high. Chipper Jones isn't known for his defense at third, but he played well this season.
Individual Third Baseman PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player
In Play
Actual Outs
Predicted Outs
DER
Predicted DER
Ratio
Chone Figgins
2787
249
230.03
0.089
0.083
108.25
Andy Marte
1849
185
173.47
0.100
0.094
106.64
Evan Longoria
3059
304
286.97
0.099
0.094
105.94
Ian Stewart
1651
160
151.25
0.097
0.092
105.78
Adrian Beltre
3804
338
321.08
0.089
0.084
105.27
Carlos Guillen
2396
246
233.91
0.103
0.098
105.17
Jack Hannahan
2882
267
254.14
0.093
0.088
105.06
Mike Lowell
2717
279
266.51
0.103
0.098
104.69
Geoff Blum
1773
179
171.00
0.101
0.096
104.68
Blake DeWitt
2152
233
223.28
0.108
0.104
104.35
Joe Crede
2492
251
242.47
0.101
0.097
103.52
Bill Hall
2709
238
229.92
0.088
0.085
103.51
Chipper Jones
2981
274
265.13
0.092
0.089
103.34
Scott Rolen
2935
274
267.64
0.093
0.091
102.37
Kevin Kouzmanoff
4179
368
361.20
0.088
0.086
101.88
Alex Rodriguez
3377
297
291.79
0.088
0.086
101.79
Jose Bautista
2478
243
240.95
0.098
0.097
100.85
Greg Dobbs
1000
92
91.52
0.092
0.092
100.53
Ryan Zimmerman
2786
275
273.75
0.099
0.098
100.46
David Wright
4234
367
365.59
0.087
0.086
100.39
Willy Aybar
1048
108
107.77
0.103
0.103
100.21
Andy LaRoche
1573
152
151.71
0.097
0.096
100.19
Juan Uribe
1424
156
157.08
0.110
0.110
99.31
Aramis Ramirez
3664
290
294.47
0.079
0.080
98.48
Edwin Encarnacion
3673
288
295.33
0.078
0.080
97.52
Mike Lamb
1508
117
120.22
0.078
0.080
97.32
Brian Buscher
1564
141
145.30
0.090
0.093
97.04
Jose Castillo
2560
214
220.73
0.084
0.086
96.95
Garrett Atkins
2528
221
228.04
0.087
0.090
96.91
Mark Reynolds
3759
304
315.66
0.081
0.084
96.31
Jorge Cantu
3264
271
281.48
0.083
0.086
96.28
Alex Gordon
3583
316
329.28
0.088
0.092
95.97
Pedro Feliz
2972
280
292.73
0.094
0.098
95.65
Casey Blake
3318
288
301.47
0.087
0.091
95.53
Ty Wigginton
2013
175
183.48
0.087
0.091
95.38
Troy Glaus
3908
351
368.31
0.090
0.094
95.30
Melvin Mora
3362
320
342.26
0.095
0.102
93.50
Ramon Vazquez
1712
138
149.87
0.081
0.088
92.08
Rich Aurilia
1271
93
106.18
0.073
0.084
87.59
Adrian Beltre comes through here as an interesting player. With the run up in salaries the last few seasons, his $12 million contract for 2009 is pretty good. It's the same amount Mike Lowell will make next season. The two are also very close in terms of win shares. If a team is looking to upgrade their defense at third base, Beltre is a great pickup. The Mariners may be looking to move his contract. If the surgery he underwent in September helps with his hitting, he could be a very good pickup.
Evan Longoria certainly was a big part of the Rays defensive improvement. Unexpected major leaguers Blake DeWitt and Jack Hannahan also provided much needed defense. In addition, Andy Marte hasn't hit but he did field the position well in limited playing time.
At the other end of the spectrum, Casey Blake appears to be as overrated defensively as offensively. Alex Gordon and Mark Reynolds look like they won't have long careers at the position, given their poor play at a young age.
You begin to tire of it, really, all the marketing people whispering in your ear about how accommodating B.J. and Justin Upton are.
"They always show up on time."
"I'm not used to athletes being this polite."
"Not one complaint while they've been here. Not one."
It's sad that it's special when people do the right thing. Shouldn't punctuality and politeness be the norm? I sometimes get complimented when someone finds out I've been married for a long time, but that's normal for me. My parents and all their brothers and sisters were or are married forever. It shouldn't be special to be married a long time, or polite and helpful to people, or just plain civil. I'm glad the Uptons act this way, but I also hope we get to the day when that's not news.
Mike Emeigh took me up on my offer to watch the best and worst plays of a second baseman. I sent Mike the highest probability plays Dan Uggla didn't make, and the lowest probability plays Uggla did turn into outs. Here's his report:
Of Uggla's eight low-probability plays made, four of them were plays on which the Marlins had an infield shift on - three by Ryan Howard, one by Carlos Delgado - and in each case the ball was hit directly to where Uggla was playing; it's very likely that any 2B would have made those plays in that position, and I don't know thow much credit you want to give Uggla for being there. Two more plays - the 8/15 play against Alfonso Soriano and the 7/10 play against James Loney - also appear to be primarily due to positioning. On the former, Uggla was playing Soriano fairly far up the middle and had a good angle on his popup; on the latter, Uggla was pulled over fairly close to 1B. The other two plays were good, far-ranging plays - Uggla going far to his left to throw out Brian Schneider on 5/26, and ranging well to the left side of 2B in shallow center to grab a Mark Reynolds flare on 5/20 - although on the latter positioning also played a role, as Uggla was playing Reynolds up the middle and the CF was playing fairly deep. It was a good play, but one that a good CF or SS might have been able to make, also.
The six high-probability plays that Uggla should have made but didn't:
6/17: routing GB by Ichiro, just booted it
8/6: hard-hit "at 'em" GB by Jimmy Rollins, basically one of those you either catch or don't catch
5/30: GB by Pedro Feliz that took a bad hop as it got to Uggla; he barehanded it across his body, which threw off his timing
4/18: GB by Ryan Zimmerman toward the middle; Uggla made the play but didn't get enough on the throw, which Mike Jacobs should have scooped anyway
9/21: With Jamie Moyer on 1B, Jimmy Rollins hit a slow grounder to the right side. Uggla stopped to avoid a collision with Moyer, which made him have to hurry the play when he did get to the ball. Had he kept coming Moyer would likely have collided with him, which would have been interference on Moyer
7/28: Endy Chavez hit a GB which took a funky hop as it got to Uggla, who booted it
Mike brings up something I've discussed before. Range is probably a poor word for what we're studying here. Range isn't just the ability to move a long distance to field a ball. It also includes the ability to position yourself (or have someone position you) so you don't need to move very far. Uggla (and Utley) put themselves into position to field low probability balls without having too many high probability outs sneak through their vacated normal positions. Someday, we'll measure range directly.
Saltalamacchia is far from Varitek defensively, but a veteran scout who has watched both of them said, "They are very similar. Jason wasn't a finished product at 23 years old, either. It took a lot of work to get him where he is right now.
"Jason just made the decision that 'I'm going to pull this off' and he went about it by putting his nose in the sand and making it happen. Salty has a chance to get there, too. I think the difference might be that Salty is going to hit and hit for power. He's a big kid and he looks like he could be an offensive force."
When Saltalamacchia was apprised of those comments, he said, "Oh my God, that's so amazing. I just want to get my catching abilities where Jason is."
Reaching that goal would certainly make Saltalamacchia a very valuable free agent when his time comes.
Probabilistic Model of Range, Centerfielders, 2008 Permalink
The third position presented in this year's Probabilistic Model of Range study belongs to centerfielders. First, the overall team numbers:
Team Centerfielders PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only
Team
In Play
Actual Outs
Predicted Outs
DER
Predicted DER
Ratio
Mets
4335
435
422.51
0.100
0.097
102.96
Rays
4264
451
438.07
0.106
0.103
102.95
Phillies
4396
389
378.54
0.088
0.086
102.76
Twins
4607
488
475.27
0.106
0.103
102.68
Athletics
4285
444
433.07
0.104
0.101
102.52
Reds
4299
413
404.02
0.096
0.094
102.22
Angels
4374
429
421.94
0.098
0.096
101.67
Brewers
4354
406
400.20
0.093
0.092
101.45
Astros
4292
427
420.91
0.099
0.098
101.45
Mariners
4512
435
429.86
0.096
0.095
101.19
Rockies
4535
405
400.30
0.089
0.088
101.17
Yankees
4349
407
402.92
0.094
0.093
101.01
Diamondbacks
4224
402
398.46
0.095
0.094
100.89
Dodgers
4265
377
374.62
0.088
0.088
100.64
Red Sox
4232
406
404.43
0.096
0.096
100.39
Marlins
4338
438
436.46
0.101
0.101
100.35
Braves
4383
360
361.20
0.082
0.082
99.67
Pirates
4683
433
434.85
0.092
0.093
99.58
Indians
4513
412
414.22
0.091
0.092
99.46
Orioles
4540
440
442.64
0.097
0.097
99.40
Padres
4419
453
456.46
0.103
0.103
99.24
Rangers
4667
451
456.50
0.097
0.098
98.79
Cubs
4156
391
396.42
0.094
0.095
98.63
Giants
4232
454
460.66
0.107
0.109
98.55
White Sox
4409
362
369.04
0.082
0.084
98.09
Blue Jays
4215
381
389.50
0.090
0.092
97.82
Tigers
4536
450
460.98
0.099
0.102
97.62
Nationals
4417
426
439.80
0.096
0.100
96.86
Royals
4413
417
436.29
0.094
0.099
95.58
Cardinals
4597
388
409.47
0.084
0.089
94.76
It was a good year for the Mets and the Rays. I find it interesting that the Rangers rank so low, as a number of people noted Josh Hamilton's defense this season. The next table will show where he ranks as an individual:
Individual Centerfielders PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player
In Play
Actual Outs
Predicted Outs
DER
Predicted DER
Ratio
Rajai Davis
1483
153
142.55
0.103
0.096
107.33
Ichiro Suzuki
1887
195
186.20
0.103
0.099
104.72
B.J. Upton
3642
378
362.20
0.104
0.099
104.36
Carlos Gonzalez
1585
176
169.00
0.111
0.107
104.14
Carlos Gomez
3988
437
422.56
0.110
0.106
103.42
Carlos Beltran
4171
418
407.47
0.100
0.098
102.58
Marlon Byrd
1372
149
145.28
0.109
0.106
102.56
Gregor Blanco
1495
128
124.87
0.086
0.084
102.51
Brian Anderson
1295
102
99.83
0.079
0.077
102.17
Willy Taveras
3124
282
276.52
0.090
0.089
101.98
Jacoby Ellsbury
1660
171
168.01
0.103
0.101
101.78
Torii Hunter
3587
350
344.29
0.098
0.096
101.66
Chris Young
4091
393
387.93
0.096
0.095
101.31
Andruw Jones
1481
133
131.63
0.090
0.089
101.04
Shane Victorino
3619
314
310.92
0.087
0.086
100.99
Michael Bourn
3051
291
289.00
0.095
0.095
100.69
Melky Cabrera
2919
272
270.56
0.093
0.093
100.53
Corey Patterson
2388
242
241.55
0.101
0.101
100.19
Alfredo Amezaga
1451
146
145.75
0.101
0.100
100.17
Grady Sizemore
4199
382
382.73
0.091
0.091
99.81
Adam Jones
3487
337
337.64
0.097
0.097
99.81
Matt Kemp
2425
209
209.73
0.086
0.086
99.65
Coco Crisp
2534
234
235.17
0.092
0.093
99.50
Jeremy Reed
1439
132
132.92
0.092
0.092
99.31
Cody Ross
2561
254
255.96
0.099
0.100
99.24
Aaron Rowand
3750
411
414.28
0.110
0.110
99.21
Mike Cameron
3174
293
295.47
0.092
0.093
99.16
Jim Edmonds
2420
242
244.43
0.100
0.101
99.00
Alex Rios
1531
156
158.34
0.102
0.103
98.52
Jody Gerut
1816
189
191.84
0.104
0.106
98.52
Mark Kotsay
2145
173
176.54
0.081
0.082
98.00
Reed Johnson
1618
144
147.07
0.089
0.091
97.91
Nate McLouth
4228
380
388.88
0.090
0.092
97.72
Scott Hairston
1152
114
116.69
0.099
0.101
97.69
Josh Hamilton
2977
268
274.44
0.090
0.092
97.65
Vernon Wells
2582
217
222.72
0.084
0.086
97.43
Joey Gathright
2242
197
202.50
0.088
0.090
97.28
Curtis Granderson
3740
366
379.16
0.098
0.101
96.53
Nick Swisher
1650
138
144.00
0.084
0.087
95.84
Lastings Milledge
3632
348
365.21
0.096
0.101
95.29
Rick Ankiel
2433
213
224.60
0.088
0.092
94.83
Skip Schumaker
1760
136
143.45
0.077
0.082
94.81
Ryan Sweeney
1053
95
102.85
0.090
0.098
92.37
David DeJesus
1524
151
163.83
0.099
0.108
92.17
It was a very good year to be a centerfielder named Carlos. B.J. Upton, however, gets the nod as the best everyday DF. Looking at individuals, it becomes apparent why the Cardinals rated so poorly at the position. Skip Shumaker and Rick Ankiel were equally below average.
As for Josh Hamilton, he ranks 35th out of 44 fielders in the study. He's going to be worth exploring in more detail, since I suspect people who watch him give him better marks.
The Brewers hire Willie Randolph as their bench coach. It's not managing, but it's close. Randolph may turn out to a person who is better off coaching than managing. Given how things went down with the Mets, he might not have the people skills for the top job.
Before I get to the centerfielders, a question arises sometimes that I'd like to address. I'm sometimes asked when a fielder does well, especially an outfielder on fly balls, what about ball hogs? So for outfielders, I'd like to take a look at where balls get hogged, and who does the hogging.
The first graph shows the percentage of plays made on each Probabilistic Model of Range vector, each vector representing about five degrees. Data is all outs made by major league outfielders in 2008. Leftfield is represented by low number vectors, rightfield by high number vectors. Straight-away centerfield is vector 36 (click for a larger image).
There are two things to notice from this graph. The first is that there are very few vectors in which ball hogging might occur. There are only six, in fact. Second, centerfielder hog more balls from leftfielder than they do from rightfielders. This makes some sense, since most hitters are right-handed, meaning centerfielders are going to be shaded toward left most of the time.
The other thing I want to point out is that balls are hogged in places where fewer outs get recorded (click for a larger image):
So, it's tough for an outfielder to get a huge boost by ball hogging. They don't stray that far into another's territory, and when they do there are fewer outs to be gathered in anyway.
This also gives us a tool to use to look at individual teams if a question of ball hogging comes up.
If the team had won the World Series in 1975, Lee said, he would have been mayor.
"And if I had been mayor, I would have banned private vehicles in downtown Boston," Lee said. "We would have all been walking, we'd all be cross-country skiing and we'd all be in better shape. And if we were all in better shape, there'd be no parking and (Boston parking czar Frank) McCourt would never have been able to buy the Dodgers and Manny would never have gone to LA."
I do agree that everyone should walk in downtown Boston.
After 17 seasons as the bullpen coach, Bill Castro takes over as the Brewers pitching coach. Why now? In all the previous times the team had a chance to make Castro the pitching coach, why didn't they? There was a rumor that Rick Peterson would be up for the job, but obviously the team decided to stay in house. It's nice to see Castro's loyalty to the team finally rewarded.
"Escobar's a pretty good player," Axelrod said. "To be honest, Jake and I have said, 'If that kind of trade gets made, who plays short for them?'"
...
"One of the things we will want to look at some point is, 'Who are you giving up? How much are you weakening your team to make this deal?'" Axelrod said. "If Team X trades three starting pitchers and a starting shortstop to get Jake Peavy, that lessens their chance of being a successful team."
I don't remember a player using his no-trade in this way. Sure, they may prevent a deal to a non-competitive team, but I don't remember one judging the competitiveness of the team based on who the acquiring team traded away.
Global financial crisis or not, baseball's old guard plans to stand firm against letting Cuban into the club. ''There's no way Bud and the owners are going to let that happen,'' a Major League Baseball source said this week. ''Zero chance.''
That's too bad. Cuban likes to talk, and Selig doesn't like owners to express opinions about the game unless Bud cleared them. I was hoping Mark would get a team, just so we could hear dissenting views on Bud's policies from some owner. I'm not surprised the commissioner won't let that happen.
I can't believe the Dodgers offered Manny Ramirez just $45 million for two years. I could see offering that average salary for five years, but for that short a term, I would have thought the Dodgers would bring the average a lot closer to A-Rod's $27.5 million. Hat tip to The Big Lead, which thinks the Dodgers may be bidding against themselves.
One problem with Manny sticking with the Dodgers is that he can't really generate that much more revenue for them. They already draw very good crowds. The team that should go overboard to sign Ramirez is the Tampa Bay Rays. Think about it. The Red Sox and Yankees are going to reload, making the AL East that much tougher to win. The Rays should get a boost in attendance with their AL championship, but imagine putting Manny in leftfield. They might draw 20,000 more per game! And if the Rays manage to net just $40 per person coming into the park, 20,000 * 81 * 40 is about $64 million in increased revenue. They could offer Manny $60 million over two years and still make a tidy profit. On top of that, Manny plays close to home and gets to torment the Red Sox. Everyone wins!
We had many discussions over the course of the past four days at the GM's meetings, some of which have been productive and even unexpected. At this point, however, there is nothing to report.
Unexpected. Maybe some team that's under the radar is looking to acquire Peavy. Maybe another team offered a very creative deal that helps both sides now. We'll see if anything unexpected some out of San Diego soon.
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2008, Second Basemen Permalink
The following table shows how team second basemen ranked according to the Probabilistic Model of Range:
Team Second Basemen PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only
Team
In Play
Actual Outs
Predicted Outs
DER
Predicted DER
Ratio
Marlins
4338
527
500.98
0.121
0.115
105.19
Phillies
4396
528
504.35
0.120
0.115
104.69
Reds
4299
498
478.19
0.116
0.111
104.14
Diamondbacks
4224
561
539.98
0.133
0.128
103.89
Cubs
4156
500
487.52
0.120
0.117
102.56
Rockies
4535
564
552.06
0.124
0.122
102.16
Tigers
4536
505
495.02
0.111
0.109
102.02
Angels
4374
545
535.72
0.125
0.122
101.73
Indians
4513
554
545.22
0.123
0.121
101.61
Twins
4607
513
505.30
0.111
0.110
101.52
Athletics
4285
518
510.99
0.121
0.119
101.37
Blue Jays
4215
532
525.31
0.126
0.125
101.27
Brewers
4354
508
503.13
0.117
0.116
100.97
White Sox
4409
535
533.38
0.121
0.121
100.30
Orioles
4540
498
498.38
0.110
0.110
99.92
Cardinals
4597
517
517.91
0.112
0.113
99.82
Yankees
4349
556
557.46
0.128
0.128
99.74
Red Sox
4232
505
508.07
0.119
0.120
99.40
Astros
4292
464
467.09
0.108
0.109
99.34
Mariners
4512
602
608.69
0.133
0.135
98.90
Rangers
4667
539
546.88
0.115
0.117
98.56
Royals
4413
547
555.11
0.124
0.126
98.54
Nationals
4417
464
471.01
0.105
0.107
98.51
Braves
4383
526
534.13
0.120
0.122
98.48
Pirates
4683
466
478.32
0.100
0.102
97.43
Mets
4335
476
492.58
0.110
0.114
96.63
Giants
4232
417
432.81
0.099
0.102
96.35
Rays
4264
472
490.56
0.111
0.115
96.22
Padres
4419
475
499.74
0.107
0.113
95.05
Dodgers
4265
484
514.65
0.113
0.121
94.04
The Marlins number one at second base? That certainly flies in the face of Dan Uggla's performance in the All-Star Game. It's not that surprising, however, to see the Dodgers with the aging Jeff Kent coming in last. On to the individual players:
Individual Second Baseman PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player
In Play
Actual Outs
Predicted Outs
DER
Predicted DER
Ratio
Adam Kennedy
2036
247
226.55
0.121
0.111
109.03
Mike Fontenot
1448
175
160.82
0.121
0.111
108.82
Emilio Bonifacio
1008
100
93.17
0.099
0.092
107.33
Chase Utley
4231
513
485.09
0.121
0.115
105.75
Marco Scutaro
1077
144
136.95
0.134
0.127
105.15
Placido Polanco
3806
424
405.94
0.111
0.107
104.45
Dan Uggla
3841
465
445.31
0.121
0.116
104.42
Howie Kendrick
2341
308
295.94
0.132
0.126
104.07
Joe Inglett
1554
205
197.44
0.132
0.127
103.83
Asdrubal Cabrera
2446
316
304.98
0.129
0.125
103.61
Juan Uribe
1112
138
133.57
0.124
0.120
103.32
Brandon Phillips
3704
429
416.27
0.116
0.112
103.06
Clint Barmes
1519
183
177.61
0.120
0.117
103.03
Mark Ellis
3006
373
365.23
0.124
0.122
102.13
Alexi Casilla
2611
288
282.01
0.110
0.108
102.12
Orlando Hudson
2668
346
339.70
0.130
0.127
101.86
Kaz Matsui
2485
267
265.25
0.107
0.107
100.66
Rickie Weeks
3150
355
353.07
0.113
0.112
100.55
Dustin Pedroia
4003
479
477.12
0.120
0.119
100.39
Brian Roberts
4195
471
469.83
0.112
0.112
100.25
Robinson Cano
4152
531
530.64
0.128
0.128
100.07
Sean Rodriguez
1229
149
148.91
0.121
0.121
100.06
Mark Loretta
1110
129
128.96
0.116
0.116
100.03
Jose Lopez
3861
531
533.54
0.138
0.138
99.52
Alexei Ramirez
3081
371
373.04
0.120
0.121
99.45
Luis Castillo
2054
219
220.31
0.107
0.107
99.41
Mark Grudzielanek
2175
280
282.08
0.129
0.130
99.26
Tadahito Iguchi
1962
217
218.94
0.111
0.112
99.12
Jamey Carroll
1800
206
207.94
0.114
0.116
99.07
Ian Kinsler
3462
413
417.34
0.119
0.121
98.96
Kelly Johnson
3631
441
448.84
0.121
0.124
98.25
Mark DeRosa
1930
232
236.45
0.120
0.123
98.12
Freddy Sanchez
3688
368
378.01
0.100
0.102
97.35
Eugenio Velez
1355
128
133.20
0.094
0.098
96.09
Jeff Baker
1174
139
144.85
0.118
0.123
95.96
Felipe Lopez
2435
266
279.15
0.109
0.115
95.29
Aaron Hill
1375
164
172.51
0.119
0.125
95.07
Akinori Iwamura
3916
435
457.88
0.111
0.117
95.00
Aaron Miles
1551
171
182.78
0.110
0.118
93.55
Alberto Callaspo
1128
128
137.62
0.113
0.122
93.01
Ray Durham
2160
212
228.31
0.098
0.106
92.86
Edgar Gonzalez
1701
191
205.90
0.112
0.121
92.76
Brendan Harris
1016
101
109.08
0.099
0.107
92.59
Damion Easley
1607
170
186.57
0.106
0.116
91.12
Jeff Kent
2630
290
318.37
0.110
0.121
91.09
One thing I need to look at more closely is why Dan Uggla does so well. In the previous post on shortstops, a couple of commenters wanted more proof that this system actually works. I was a bit suprised by Akinori Iwamura rating so low, so I thought I would look at his poorest plays to see if they made sense. Of his four worst plays, all with a probablility of .889 or higher of being turned, two were errors hit right at him. One was a grounder to his right when he was playing too far left (poor positioning) and one was just bad judgement on a double play ball.
To compare, I looked at Utley's best play, since he was the best regular at the position. All three of his best plays were balls to the right of first base that got by Howard off the bats of left handers. In each case, Utley ranged into the outfield to field the ball and throw out the batter at first, twice I believe to the pitcher covering. He made those plays because Howard couldn't, but he was positioned so well he was in the right place to cover for Ryan.
The other thing I noticed is that toughest plays Utley made were much tougher than the best plays Iwamura executed. At the other end, easiest balls in play that Iwamura failed to turn into outs were much easier than Utley's worse plays.
If anyone would like to review video on MLB.com for a particular player, I'll be happy to send you the dates and innings of their best and worst plays.
In case you want to check my work, Iwamura's worst plays were on 9/7, 3rd inning, 8/20, 9th inning, 4/25, 9th inning, 7/30, 5th inning. Utley's best plays were on 7/23, 1st inning, 7/1, 1st inning and 8/3, 3rd inning.
One source mentioned a potential three-way deal that would send outfielder Hideki Matsui from the New York Yankees to the Seattle Mariners for a pitching prospect, perhaps Ryan Rowland-Smith. The Yankees would package the prospect with second baseman Robinson Cano and another young player to the Rockies for Holliday.
Wow, if this has any truth I will be insanely angry. There is no way that the most we can get for Rowland-Smith is Matsui, who is an aging, below average defensive outfielder. Sure, his bat is definitely a positive, but in two of the past three seasons he's been hurt, and been limited to less than 100 games.
On the other hand, if I'm the Yankees with a need for pitching, I'm stopping at Matsui for Rowland-Smith. He's a pretty good pitcher, and I really like his minor league strikeout and walk numbers. With the Yankees poor defense, they need pitchers who keep the ball out of play.
For several hours, Mozeliak, assistant general manager John Abbamondi and vice president of scouting and player development Jeff Luhnow briefed manager Tony La Russa, who traveled back and forth from his Bay Area home. The presentation included numerous possibilities listing players from within the organization as well as free-agent and trade targets.
Some of the models did not include Ludwick or Ankiel.
"We have a good core of outfielders. But we also have some needs," La Russa said. "I think they're doing it exactly right. You try to look at your priorities and how you would fill them. You don't want to make any deal ... but with free agency you have to get involved with money and years. There's no free lunch."
Wary of perceptions that he is shopping Ludwick and Ankiel, Mozeliak added, "Not to be coy, but it's probably one of 100 variables that are factoring into this."
It looks like communications in the Cardinals hierarchy are very open and complete. This led to them putting a surprisingly good team on the field this year. We'll see if they can do it again in 2009.
Ned Colletti says he made Manny Ramirez an offer. The Dodgers would make him the second highest paid player behind A-Rod. We don't know the length or actual dollar amount, but if this is where the bidding starts, we might see Manny make a higher average salary than Rodriguez over a shorter period of time.
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2008, Shortstops Permalink
The first position to examine is the most important of the fielders working behind the pitcher, the shortstop. As a reference, the first table looks at the position on a team-wide basis:
Team Shortstop PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only
Team
In Play
Actual Outs
Predicted Outs
DER
Predicted DER
Ratio
Brewers
4354
551
526.00
0.127
0.121
104.75
Giants
4232
492
469.81
0.116
0.111
104.72
Marlins
4338
517
501.00
0.119
0.115
103.19
Angels
4374
524
510.64
0.120
0.117
102.62
Cardinals
4597
580
566.37
0.126
0.123
102.41
Red Sox
4232
480
472.55
0.113
0.112
101.58
Phillies
4396
557
551.85
0.127
0.126
100.93
Braves
4383
566
561.40
0.129
0.128
100.82
Diamondbacks
4224
469
465.74
0.111
0.110
100.70
Cubs
4156
498
495.33
0.120
0.119
100.54
Astros
4292
500
497.32
0.116
0.116
100.54
Athletics
4285
477
474.54
0.111
0.111
100.52
Rangers
4667
538
536.31
0.115
0.115
100.31
Dodgers
4265
546
544.65
0.128
0.128
100.25
Indians
4513
542
540.73
0.120
0.120
100.23
White Sox
4409
548
546.97
0.124
0.124
100.19
Royals
4413
508
507.30
0.115
0.115
100.14
Rays
4264
490
490.56
0.115
0.115
99.89
Orioles
4540
537
539.06
0.118
0.119
99.62
Rockies
4535
587
589.61
0.129
0.130
99.56
Pirates
4683
577
580.37
0.123
0.124
99.42
Blue Jays
4215
476
479.71
0.113
0.114
99.23
Twins
4607
578
584.70
0.125
0.127
98.85
Yankees
4349
491
499.00
0.113
0.115
98.40
Nationals
4417
526
538.02
0.119
0.122
97.76
Mariners
4512
480
493.64
0.106
0.109
97.24
Padres
4419
520
536.39
0.118
0.121
96.94
Reds
4299
468
485.83
0.109
0.113
96.33
Tigers
4536
519
544.40
0.114
0.120
95.33
Mets
4335
498
524.64
0.115
0.121
94.92
Notice the Mets are last. While recent articles mention Jeter as the worst fielder in the majors, in 2008 he wasn't the worst shortstop in New York:
Individual Shortstop PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player
In Play
Actual Outs
Predicted Outs
DER
Predicted DER
Ratio
Marco Scutaro
1352
173
157.04
0.128
0.116
110.16
Omar Vizquel
1863
210
193.60
0.113
0.104
108.47
Mike Aviles
2277
271
252.42
0.119
0.111
107.36
Maicer Izturis
1307
151
144.80
0.116
0.111
104.28
Jed Lowrie
1142
123
118.01
0.108
0.103
104.23
J.J. Hardy
3804
477
460.72
0.125
0.121
103.53
Erick Aybar
2437
305
295.72
0.125
0.121
103.14
Alex Cora
1137
140
135.75
0.123
0.119
103.13
Cesar Izturis
3136
408
396.19
0.130
0.126
102.98
Jack Wilson
2231
285
276.88
0.128
0.124
102.93
Bobby Crosby
3740
423
411.71
0.113
0.110
102.74
Jason Bartlett
3208
380
372.71
0.118
0.116
101.96
Hanley Ramirez
3986
472
462.98
0.118
0.116
101.95
Juan Castro
1331
153
150.32
0.115
0.113
101.78
Jimmy Rollins
3537
451
443.43
0.128
0.125
101.71
Luis Rodriguez
1191
143
140.93
0.120
0.118
101.47
Yunel Escobar
3344
440
434.04
0.132
0.130
101.37
Nick Punto
1646
227
224.05
0.138
0.136
101.32
Orlando Cabrera
4218
527
521.06
0.125
0.124
101.14
Adam Everett
1183
156
154.33
0.132
0.130
101.08
Miguel Tejada
4062
472
469.63
0.116
0.116
100.50
Jhonny Peralta
3963
469
467.52
0.118
0.118
100.32
Michael Young
4165
489
487.98
0.117
0.117
100.21
Ryan Theriot
3615
425
424.27
0.118
0.117
100.17
Julio Lugo
1947
216
217.95
0.111
0.112
99.11
Angel Berroa
1730
225
227.09
0.130
0.131
99.08
Derek Jeter
3815
429
433.24
0.112
0.114
99.02
Stephen Drew
3820
422
429.34
0.110
0.112
98.29
Cristian Guzman
3640
441
449.15
0.121
0.123
98.19
John McDonald
1387
150
154.82
0.108
0.112
96.89
Yuniesky Betancourt
4173
446
460.45
0.107
0.110
96.86
Troy Tulowitzki
2730
354
365.56
0.130
0.134
96.84
Edgar Renteria
3696
428
449.40
0.116
0.122
95.24
Jose Reyes
4196
480
504.15
0.114
0.120
95.21
Khalil Greene
2841
327
345.54
0.115
0.122
94.64
Tony F Pena
1808
199
211.52
0.110
0.117
94.08
Brendan Harris
1480
159
170.68
0.107
0.115
93.16
Jeff Keppinger
2636
274
296.50
0.104
0.112
92.41
David Eckstein
1445
149
163.53
0.103
0.113
91.11
Jose Reyes converted 24 fewer balls into outs than expected while Jeter was just down four. It was actually one of Derek's better years.
Omar Vizquel remains impressive at an advanced age. He didn't play a whole season, so he didn't get a chance to wear down, but if any team is looking for a great late inning defensive replacement, Omar is it.
Mike Aviles came up as a great find for the Royals in terms of his batting, but he also performed well with the glove.
We've Got Heart brings us the latest in their Women in Baseball series. This week they profile Cheryl Zimmerman, mother of Washington third baseman Ryan Zimmerman. Cheryl suffers from MS.
Remember, the voting system for Gold Gloves is very poor, so that's mostly why they end up with poor results. All they need to do is give the voters a list of players with 120 games at each position, and ask them to rank the top three.
Singh came to the United States with Patel after being declared winner of the Million Dollar Arm contest in India, run by promoter Jeff Bernstein, Barry Bonds' marketing agent. The contest -- the second edition is scheduled to begin this month and targets India because of its population of 1.1 billion even though the country has never produced a major leaguer -- was based on those who could throw the most pitches 85 mph or faster for strikes. Singh consistently hit 87 mph and earned $100,000. When veteran major league scout Ray Poitevint went to India to see whether he had potential, he also recommended Patel, who threw harder but wasn't as accurate.
If they really wanted to do this right, they should have this contest in every neighborhood, then keep moving the winner up against less and less regional competition. At the end, they'll wind up with 10 good arms that might be developed into major league pitchers.
Incredibly, the results paint a rather favorable picture for the A's and their hopes to get the baseball village built. Several potential obstacles in Fremont have been removed. Incumbent mayor Wasserman, who has been the staunchest public proponent of the project, will stick around to see it through the EIR process at the very least. Wieckowski, also a supporter, will be there as well. They'll be joined by Chan, who is also a project supporter. Neither of the project's biggest critics, former mayor Gus Morrison and Sierra Club chapter leader Vinnie Bacon, placed higher than third in their races.
As the post points out, there are still obstacles, but Lew Wolff won't need to worry about too much opposition from politicians.
If this deal came to fruition, it would be the fourth good catcher in a row traded to a Florida team by the Dodgers. They sent Mike Piazza and Paul Lo Duca to the Marlins. They also traded away Dioner Navarro to the Rays (although Dioner was not good yet). I wonder if Dodger fans will be as upset about Martin as they were about Lo Duca. That turned out to be the right move. I'm not so sure about this one.
It isn't about food, or getting yelled at for the littlest things. It's about the lack of respect that the Red Sox have for some of its "unimportant" workers. I hope this level of treatment is limited to the grounds crew; I would hate to think it permeates more of the organization and is indicative of an overall cultural program. I would hate that if it were true.
I think that you and senior management need to take a hard look at the treatment of its grounds crew. An organization is only as stable as its bottom rung, and things aren't working too well for you on the bottom rung right now.
I have no idea if his story is true or not. We'll see if the Red Sox respond.
Obama's proposal would increase federal income tax on families earning more than $250,000 annually, money that would help finance a decrease for workers and families earning less than $200,000. It's also possible more income might be subject to the Social Security tax.
Next year's major league minimum is $400,000. Agent Scott Boras, negotiating eight- and possibly nine-figure deals for free agents Manny Ramirez [stats] and Mark Teixeira, already has thought about the possibility of asking for larger signing bonuses payable this year in some of his contracts.
"There's some consideration to be had with the impact of the election," he said.
This could turn out to be a very busy last week of December. I'm also interested to see how big teams are willing to go bonuses. Let's say the market determines Mark Teixeira is worth a total of $100 million over a five year contract. Does a team give him a $20 million dollar bonus and pay him $16 million over the last five years of his contract? That would save Mark close to $1 million in taxes.
Or do teams just up the value of the contract? Paying him 1.7 million more per year covers the increase in taxes, giving him the same take home pay. So watch to see if contracts signed before the end of the year are structured differently than contracts signed after the first of the year, and if later signing free agents appear to be making more money than early signing free agents.
Congratulations to Barack Obama on his victory over John McCain. Congratulations, too, to Nate Silver, who called the election extremely well. It's another victory for sabermetrics, or at least the political equivalent.
After the 1990, STATS, Inc. published their annual Bill James Baseball Handbook. For the first time, that book contained Bill's projections for batters for the 1991 season. When Peter Gammons reviewed the book, one of the things he gleaned from the projections was that Bill James predicted that Jeff Bagwell was going to win the NL batting title.
James did not make that specific prediction in the book. Bagwell was traded to the Astros in September for Larry Anderson and it wasn't clear that Jeff was going to play, given the Astros had Ken Caminiti at third base. His BA projection, however, was the highest of any National League player, so Gammons was in a sense right.
Bill later told me that he felt his whole system was on the line that year. If Bagwell failed, no one would trust it again. The Astros move Bagwell to first base, however, and while he didn't win the batting title, he did hit .294 and win Rookie of the Year. James was vindicated, and the system survived.
Nate, I'm sure, faced the same kind of scrutiny with 538. He nailed the result. It's another victory for statistical analysis, and I hope this spreads to more areas of political decision making as well.
I saw earlier today that Matt Vasgersian left the Padres broadcasts. We now know why, as he's going to host MLB TV:
Lead Studio Host for the MLB Network: Matt Vasgersian, it has a nice ring to it. I wonder how tough that decision was, he seemed pretty comfortable in a cushy job like he had at the Padres. Collecting paychecks and praise, goofing off with Grant, living in La Jolla, watching endless hours of Squidbillies, eating nachos for every meal, not a bad gig if you can get it.
I bet there was more than once that he asked himself the same question that Rick Sutcliffe asked him, after a terribly boring loss by the Padres, "Matty! What're you still doing here in San Diego?"
Matt knows sabermetrics, and isn't afraid to talk about numbers on the air. I enjoyed his Channel 4 broadcasts, and his hire by MLB makes me believe the new network is moving in the right direction.
Giambi will receive a $5 million buyout rather than a $22 million salary next season, completing his $120 million, seven-year contract. Pavano gets a $1.95 million buyout instead of a $13 million salary, finishing his $39.95 million deal.
That gives the Yankees $28 million to spend on new free agents. It's enough to land Mark Teixeira and part of a pitcher.
A.J. Burnett opted out of his contract with the Blue Jays. He should receive a nice raise. However, he's unclear about when to opt out of a contract. Making the announcement in the middle of a World Series game gets one lots of attention. Opting out in the middle of a presidential election and few are going to notice.
Baseball Info Solutions sent me their fielding data, and that means it's time to start presenting the 2008 Probabilistic Model of Range. If you're new to this, you can find explanations in this archive. Basically, for each fieldable (non inside the park home runs) ball put in play, six parameters are used to determine how difficult it was to field the ball. A probability of turning the ball into an out is calculated, and those probabilities are summed. That gives us expected batted balls turned into outs. We turn that into a predicted DER (defensive efficiency record), compare that to the actual DER and calculate a ranking.
The model is based primarily on visiting player data, smoothed, using distance on fly balls and a hard hit indicator on ground balls. Only 2008 data was used to construct the model.
Note that a team can post a poor DER during the season, but do well in this model if the balls put into play were extremely difficult to field. This helps the Braves rank second.
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2007 Data, Teams, Visit Smooth Distance Model, Ranked by Difference
Team
In Play
Actual Outs
Predicted Outs
DER
Predicted DER
Index
Blue Jays
4215
2961
2896.74
0.702
0.687
102.22
Braves
4383
3033
2977.44
0.692
0.679
101.87
Rays
4264
3023
2979.66
0.709
0.699
101.45
Athletics
4285
2991
2950.73
0.698
0.689
101.36
Red Sox
4232
2953
2913.30
0.698
0.688
101.36
Astros
4292
2990
2952.74
0.697
0.688
101.26
Angels
4374
3022
2985.77
0.691
0.683
101.21
Brewers
4354
3036
3000.17
0.697
0.689
101.19
Cardinals
4597
3190
3163.77
0.694
0.688
100.83
Dodgers
4265
2941
2919.81
0.690
0.685
100.73
Cubs
4156
2925
2906.58
0.704
0.699
100.63
Twins
4607
3161
3144.82
0.686
0.683
100.51
Mariners
4512
3068
3053.72
0.680
0.677
100.47
Indians
4513
3093
3082.17
0.685
0.683
100.35
White Sox
4409
3021
3013.27
0.685
0.683
100.26
Marlins
4338
3002
2994.74
0.692
0.690
100.24
Diamondbacks
4224
2892
2886.85
0.685
0.683
100.18
Giants
4232
2897
2898.76
0.685
0.685
99.94
Tigers
4536
3105
3109.78
0.685
0.686
99.85
Phillies
4396
3054
3062.15
0.695
0.697
99.73
Mets
4335
3024
3033.17
0.698
0.700
99.70
Rangers
4667
3124
3136.62
0.669
0.672
99.60
Padres
4419
3074
3088.40
0.696
0.699
99.53
Pirates
4683
3157
3175.46
0.674
0.678
99.42
Rockies
4535
3072
3090.76
0.677
0.682
99.39
Nationals
4417
3041
3060.09
0.688
0.693
99.38
Orioles
4540
3119
3139.36
0.687
0.691
99.35
Yankees
4349
2962
2984.01
0.681
0.686
99.26
Reds
4299
2889
2921.00
0.672
0.679
98.90
Royals
4413
3038
3076.09
0.688
0.697
98.76
The Rays turned in the best combination of good pitching and good defense. Their .699 predicted DER was second to the Mets. Unlike the Mets, however, the Rays fielded more balls than expected, giving the best DER, but only the third best Index. The Blue Jays turned in a tremendous defensive season, a big reason their pitching staff did so well in ERA in 2008.
The bottom of this chart is very interesting. From the Padres down, teams 23-30 all turned out to be very poor teams with the exception of the Yankees. Defense didn't necessarily help a team win, as the Phillies were pretty middle of the road, but it certainly seemed to indicate a pretty bad team.
Note that last season, the Devil Rays were at the very bottom of the list. They improved both their predicted DER and their ability to turn batted balls into outs. That was enough to lower their runs allowed from 944 to 671 and make them American League champions.
Jeter is really getting hammered in the media for his rank in the Fielding Bible Awards. How many years does he need to rank at the bottom of shortstops before the Yankees move him?
Centerfield, right now, is still open. Put Jeter there where his speed and fly ball instincts work. Especially if the Yankees end up with Derek Lowe, they are going to need a shortstop who can gobble up the ball.
For those of you who are waiting, Probabilistic Model of Range rankings are coming soon.
Melvin's top assistant at the time was Jack Zduriencik. Randolph later told confidantes that he knew Zduriencik was up for the Mariners general manager's job and that he might be, in essence, interviewing for two jobs at the same time.
Zduriencik eventually landed in Seattle. Monday at the general managers' meetings, he talked about the Randolph scenario without specifically mentioning Randolph.
"I sat in on some interviews Melvin had in Milwaukee," Zduriencik said. "And I was privy to what went on in some other interviews I didn't sit in on.
"So when I'm going through the interviews, for some it will be like a second interview."
That should make the managerial hiring process easier, since Zduriencik should already have a good idea who he likes.
That could be a very interesting year. Depending on how the Clemens lawsuit goes and how much stock voters put in Brian McNamee, voters might not make Roger a first ballot Hall of Famer. That could mean Rocket and Maddux go in together in 2013? Since Maddux is considered clean, however, maybe Rocket goes in the year after so there's no potential conflict.
"There are more choices available at second base," Diamondbacks General Manager Josh Byrnes said. "To go get a third baseman, you assume the Reynolds move would go well. It probably would, but all things equal, we would prefer him to play third base. As we've looked around, there are more candidates to play second base."
Byrnes said the team isn't going to discriminate based on age or experience, noting that either a veteran or a prospect could work.
Looking at Win Shares for second baseman, it will tough to improve on Hudson. All the players with higher win shares at the position are locked up. Improving the DBacks offense will need to come from a different position.
Terms of the deal weren't disclosed, but Epstein told the Boston Globe on the first day of the annual GM meetings that he signed the deal "a while back." Terms of the contract weren't released.
Good thing the Red Sox didn't make the same mistake twice and let Theo twist in the wind this time.
Dombrowski also revealed that the 2009 payroll would not see "a significant difference" from 2008. With the team already committed to spending a little over $100 million on 11 players, that means the Tigers have about $25 million left to find a shortstop, a catcher, resign Justin Verlander, bolster the bullpen and rotation, and fill in the rest of the spots with league-minimum players under club control (like Matt Joyce).
The Yankees are out to acquire two starters. "We won't be one and done," Cashman said. The plan is to have a rotation of New Guy 1, New Guy 2, Wang, Chamberlain and then Pettitte/Hughes/Kennedy/Aceves/assorted bums.
This seems to imply that they see Wang as their third starter. I take that to mean they'll be going after pitchers on the talent level of Sabathia and Dempster. Do you want both Lowe and Wang in a rotation, or do you want more strike out pitchers? Lots of strike outs covers for a poor defense.
Peavy is a valuable commodity due to his under market contract. Since the Padres don't feel that the money saved on Peavy can be used to turn them into winners while keeping Jake, a trade is in the offing.
As much as I understand these deals, I really don't like them. Maybe it goes back to Bill James's article on the Oakland Athletics in his 1985 Baseball Abstract. After giving reasons why the A's might come out ahead on the Henderson trade, James concludes:
Butt (sic) I wouldn't have made it. Did they get a fair price for Rickey Henderson? It's kind of like if you're an art collector and you have the Mona Lisa, what's a fair price for it? The idea in building a championship team is to acquire players like Rickey Henderson. It's a sad day when you have to give one away.
The A's did do well in the Henderson trade, although Jose Rijo came back to bite them in 1990. The Padres may make out well also, but it may be three or four years before we know that for sure.
River Ave. Blues makes the case for the Yankees offering arbitration to Ivan Rodgriuez. If the worst that happens is the Yankees wind up with Pudge as their backup catcher, it's not so bad. Given, however, the obvious dislike between Ivan and the Yankees after they acquired him, I doubt Rodriguez would accept.
The Boston Globe points out that the Red Sox may wind up paying Jonathan Papelbon and Kevin Youkilis big money in arbitration. Kevin, especially, is going to get a huge raise due to Ryan Howard. Both are in their second year of arbitration. Ryan is one year younger in seasonal age, although both were born in 1979. Both are first basemen who can hit. Howard won a $10 million award last winter, and his salary is not going down. This year, Kevin's agent can argue that Youkilis had a better year than Howard. Yes, Howard hit more home runs and drove in more runs, but Kevin did about everything else better. He's ahead of Ryan in both win shares and VORP (subscription required for VORP).
Career wise, Howard posts better numbers, due to his power. Based on 2008, however, Youkilis's agent can make a very good case for Kevin deserving Howard like money. My guess is that Kevin will more than double his 2008 $3 milllion salary, and probably even triple it.
Melvin told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel last night that Texas has "overwhelmed [Maddux] with a huge deal" that dwarfed the multi-year contract the Brewers had offered him, and that Maddux couldn't afford to turn the Rangers down. No terms were even guessed at in the story, but Melvin said "he's probably going to be one of the top-paid pitching coaches" in baseball.
Why was Mike offered such a lucrative contract? He's a known quantity to the Rangers:
The younger* brother of future Hall of Famer Greg Maddux, Mike pitched the final game of his 15-year big league career on July 4, 2000, pitching the sixth and seventh innings of a 10-4 Astros loss to Arizona (for whom rookie Vicente Padilla pitched the eighth). Houston released him the next day. He retired a week after that.
And then came a move that probably led to this day. Maddux had barely cleared his Houston locker out when he agreed to take a job as the pitching coach for the organization's AA affiliate, the Round Rock Express.
Which was owned by Nolan Ryan.
And managed by Jackie Moore.
*This is a mistake. Mike Maddux is older than Greg.
The story also points out a number of Rangers pitchers who moved to Milwaukee and florished.
I assume that Maddux is on board with Ryan's vision of how to rework the Rangers pitchers from the ground up. Certainly, the use of CC Sabathia in Milwaukee shows that Mike isn't married to pitch counts.
The Texas Rangers might end up being a test bed for different ideas in how pitchers are developed and used. I don't know if Nolan Ryan is correct. Baseball strategy, both on the field and in player recruitment and development evolves over time, and mostly in the right direction. Ryan is betting that the evolution of how pitchers are used went wrong at some point. If Nolan is right, will he be able to pull the rest of the majors back to his way of doing things?
Recently, the Athletics appear to be suffering from playing hitters with good process at the expense of talent. If you remember Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game, the A's encouraged good process at the plate. They'd praise a player who struck out looking on an outside pitch, but have words with someone who swung at a ball, even if it resulted in a good outcome.
This resulted in 2008 with a number of players on the team who can draw a walk, but don't hit:
2008
Batting Avg.
On-Base Avg.
Mark Ellis
.233
.321
Jack Cust
.231
.375
Daric Barton
.226
.327
Jack Hannahan
.218
.305
All of these players show good process at the plate, as indicated by earning a much higher OBA than batting average. They're good at not swinging at bad pitches. The problem is that they're bad swinging at good pitches. The whole point of developing good selectivity, good process, is to get the batters better pitches to hit, so they can smack the ball around. If a team's hitters don't have the talent to execute on good pitches, then why have them on the team?
Jack Cust is a good hitter, in the mold of Rob Deer, Ken Phelps and Adam Dunn. None of these, players however, should be the best hitter on a team. If you think about the greatest hitters of all time, or even today, they hit for average in addition to getting on base and hitting for power. They possess talent to go with their great selectivity at the plate.
The Athletics will claim they can't afford those players. Fine, they're not going to sign Mark Teixeira or Manny Ramirez to a big contract. Oakland, however, is not developing those players, either. The players they bring along have the process, but not the talent that makes the process effective. Until they find batters who can turn good pitches into hits, they are going to continue to wallow in walks that fill but fail to drain the bases.
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The decision to hire Amaro, 43, is hardly a shock. There was strong speculation when Pat Gillick was hired three years ago that he was brought in, in part, to mentor the young assistant.
Amaro, who was often presented as the public face of the Phillies front office as Gillick preferred to operate of the spotlight, is heavily involved in many aspects of the organization, including contract negotiations. It was Amaro who introduced closer Brad Lidge and spoke for the organization when the Phillies announced his contract extension earlier this season.
Amaro has strong Phillies ties. His father, Ruben Sr., played for the Phillies and then worked for the team in a number of capacities. Ruben Jr. was a batboy for the Phillies from 1980 through 1983, and also played for the Phils in 1992-93 and 1996-98. He is also bilingual and a graduate of Stanford.
As BSS points out, however, the hiring comes with a loss:
What is of more concern is the loss of Arbuckle. He is the man predominantly responsible for the developing of most of the Phillies core -- Utley, Hamels, Howard, Rollins, Burrell, and Ruiz. That's six of the nine players in the starting lineup that just won the World Series. And not only will he be missed, but what of the people he might take with him when he goes?
Congratulations to Ruben Amaro. With Arbuckle's resume, I'm sure he'll wind up in an important position with another team.
The Rangers have a little something to offer anybody seeking catchers.
Want an experienced big league starter whose contract is still affordable and who would be under a club's control for more than one year? There is Gerald Laird, who can't become a free agent until after 2010.
Aren't too worried about defense, but need some power and plate discipline? The Rangers can discuss Max Ramirez.
Want to gamble on a toolsy top prospect who has struggled at the major league level but has the potential to be a franchise catcher? That would be Jarrod Saltalamacchia.
The Rangers could deal all of them and still hold on to Taylor Teagarden, who hit .319 with a 1.205 on-base-plus-slugging percentage in September.
When two of my college roommates took introductory economics, they liked to make fun of the example, "The US has a comparative advantage in baseball bats. Japan holds a comparative advantage in Saki. Therefore, international trade will occur." With the Rangers holding such an advantage in catching, trades almost certainly will happen.
This year might be a little different for General Manager Josh Byrnes, who will head to Dana Point, Calif., for next week's meetings. The biggest reason could be the Diamondbacks' willingness to use free agency as a way to plug their holes.
"Unlike the previous three off-seasons, I think we're maybe a little bit more with an eye on free agency, obviously at the right cost," Byrnes said.
How about Manny Ramirez? For two years in a row, the Diamondbacks were a good team without enough offense. Manny gives them a huge boost. Josh Byrnes, coming from the Red Sox, knows Manny. That may be both a positive and a negative. It seems if Arizona really wants to make a push for the pennant, they can hope that the youngsters finally mature, or they can add a big bat in the outfield. Would short term, big money for Manny be worth it?
Ngoepe, 18, is a switch-hitting shortstop who signed with the Pirates about a month ago, then made a cameo appearance in the Instructional League in Bradenton, Fla.
"We need to find talent wherever it is," general manager Neal Huntington said. "It will be a great story if he makes it to the big leagues."
It also will be historic.
No player from South Africa has played in the major leagues.
This appears to be a signing in which the Pirates saw the potential for talent, rather than actual results. We'll get a taste for what he can do in the World Baseball Classic in the spring.
His agent, Brian Goldberg, told The Times that the Mariners are among the teams Griffey would consider playing for in 2009. He was drafted No. 1 overall by the Mariners in 1987 and played for them from 1989 until orchestrating a trade to Cincinnati after the 1999 season.
"It's no secret Junior has a special relationship with the people in Seattle from the ownership and front office all the way down to the fans and business people in town," Goldberg said in a phone interview.
"He's totally open-minded to talking to them, I'm sure. He'd be open to discuss anything with them. However, he owes it to himself to see what else is out there."
I think it's going to come down to what team wants Griffey, not where Griffey wants to play. His seasonal age for 2009 will be 39. He's coming off another surgery. Even with a repaired knee, he's more likely to decline than improve.
Seattle seems to be a perfect fit for Ken. It will be like Ruth returning to Boston, Mays to New York and Aaron to Milwaukee at the end of their careers. The squad won't be that good, but getting to see Junior will keep the fans interested until the front office reworks the team.
Utley's utterance was heard on all of them, and the Federal Communications Commission doesn't take kindly to cursing.
Anchors from NBC10, 6ABC and Fox29 issued on-air apologies almost immediately. CBS3's came later. Despite having used a tape delay of several seconds, the word made it onto their air.
...
Fans at Citizens Bank Park generally were unfazed.
"They hear worse stuff in school," said Ivette Centeno, 44, of Northeast Philadelphia, there with her two children and two grandchildren. "As a parent, we can explain that it was just excitement, and that we don't want them to say that."
Malik Muhammad, 29, of West Philadelphia, there with his daughter, Tia, 6, and Tia's mother, Tamika Taylor, 28, called the remark "surprising, but I can't say it disturbed us."
Of course, given that this was the second time Utley uttered the profanity on TV, maybe it's time to ask Chase to stop giving speeches.
Forget the Curse of the Bambino in Boston or the Curse of the Goat in Chicago. It's who's going to be living on Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington that will determine if a world championship returns to the Bronx any time soon. The statistics make it clear.
With a Democratic rather than Republican commander in chief, the Yankees have won several more pennants (22 compared to 17) and nearly three times as many championships (19 to 7). In fact, the team has a losing World Series record when the GOP controls the Executive Branch, going 7-10 for a .412 clip. Under Democrats, the Yanks are an outstanding 19-3 in the Fall Classic, which translates into a breathtaking .864 winning percentage. That's 197 percentage points higher than the team's overall World Series record.
My guess is there are a lot more people who would be happy to see the Yankees lose than win. I wonder if that's enough to make Massachusetts go Republican? I can just see the ads this weekend, "A vote for Obama is a vote for the Yankees!" :-)