Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
November 30, 2008
Pilot Out
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Peter Abraham examines why the hot stove is so cold. Unlike last year, we don't have the drama of the A-Rod opt-out upstaging the World Series to keep us entertained until the winter meetings start.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:08 AM | Transactions | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
November 29, 2008
Yankees vs. the City
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A fight between the Yankees and the mayors office led to a free suite but also a loss of revenue.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:59 PM | Stadiums | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
PR for Kennedy
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Peter Abraham lists Ian Kennedy's stats in the Puerto Rican Winter League. They're mostly good, but the nine walks in 19 2/3 innings bothers me. He's wild and tough to hit, something that doesn't work for most major league pitchers.

Correction: Fixed the title.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:22 PM | Pitchers | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Foot Fixed
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The Nationals' leader in wins, Tim Redding, underwent foot surgery on Friday and should be ready for spring training. Redding is a low strikeout pitcher who does okay in years he keeps his walks low.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:38 PM | Injuries | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Crisis Clinic
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I don't usually blog about football players, but having read this story, I think this picture pretty much explains
Plaxico Burress's season
.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:24 PM | Other | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Finding the Holes
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Billfer tries to explain the poor defense behind Nate Robertson and decides that batters were just very good at hitting balls in holes against the Tigers pitcher.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:15 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Rembering Ellis
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Bruce Markusen explores John Ellis's 1972 In Action card. Ellis shares the card with Hall of Famer Harmon Killebrew. The card looked familar, and 1972 was one of the few years I bought cards. I looked through the pile, and sure enough there's not only the In Action card, but John Ellis's regular card as well. Thanks for the memory!

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:31 AM | Players | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
November 28, 2008
Pettitte and the Dodgers
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River Ave. Blues notes that Andy Pettitte talking to the Dodgers complicated the Yankees decision to offer the left-hander arbitration:

Monday, you see, is MLB's arbitration deadline. By the end of the day, the Yanks must decide whether or not to offer arbitration to Andy Pettitte. This is a rather complicated decision, and it could play itself out in a variety of scenarios.

The easiest option -- and perhaps the most beneficial to the Yanks -- would be to offer arbitration to Andy Pettitte and hope that he heads to Los Angeles. As Mike noted earlier this week, the Yanks would land the 17th slot in the draft and a supplemental pick as well. But because the Dodgers would be giving up a fairly coveted spot, they may not be so keen to sign Pettitte if the Yanks offer arbitration.

Of course, if the Yankees do offer Andy arbitration, he may accept the offer, and New York ends up spending more than they wanted on Andy.

In general, it was a very good move for Pettitte to at least speak with the Dodgers. He held no leverage against New York until he did so.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:15 PM | Free Agents | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Pirates Philosophy
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Neal Huntington speaks on the way the Pirates are approaching the off-season:

"We are not throwing 2009 to the wind and saying, 'Well, we'll win again sometime in the future.' We know we need to win, and sooner rather than later, and we're going to show up, work hard, prepare, teach and go out to win every game" Huntington said. "But, if we can trade a veteran player and it brings us 12-18 years of control instead of one or two, and we don't take that large of a step backward, that's just good business."

And that is why, according to multiple sources, no fewer than of the Pirates' five veterans -- shortstop Jack Wilson, second baseman Freddy Sanchez, first baseman Adam LaRoche, reliever John Grabow and catcher Ronny Paulino -- already have been part of trade talks, to some degree or other.

To me, this is an approach to keep payroll low. I'd rather see the Pirates pick their weak link position and improve it as much as possible. Looking at the team stats by position, they can pick third base, shortstop or second base as their area of improvement for this season. Even just bringing one of those position above league average will help them score more runs. Given that the Pirates have such a log way to go, addressing two of those is probably needed. Just trading veterans to get more years of control, however, is not the way to build a winner unless the players acquired are good, too. Jack Wilson isn't going to bring much.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:05 AM | Management | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Combeback Speedbump
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Freddy Garcia suffered an injury in the Venezuelan Winter League.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:42 AM | Injuries | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
First Timers
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Baseball will reveal the number of players who tested positive for amphetamines for the first time in 2008. I suspect the number will be low. Players who tested positive in 2007 won't be included, and are likely not to be using with the threat of suspension hanging over them. It would be nice if they included the number already at the suspension testing level entering 2008.

Update: MLB reversed itself on this.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:13 AM | Cheating | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
November 27, 2008
No Jake
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Bleed Cubbie Blue does not believe Jake Peavy will land with the Cubs, because Lou Piniella is happy with his starting pitching.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:44 AM | Trades | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Happy Thanksgiving!
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Thank you to all the readers of Baseball Musings. The site is seven seasons old, and would not have last this long without your support. Thanks for your donations, your comments and your emails. Best wishes for a wonderful day with your family and friends!

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:52 AM | Other | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
November 26, 2008
The Athletics Getting Nicked?
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The Oakland Athletics appear to have an interest in Nick Johnson. Do they reall want both corner infielders constantly on the disabled list?

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:09 PM | Trades | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Why Morneau?
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Nick and Nick wonder why Justin Morneau gets so much more MVP respect than Joe Mauer.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:53 PM | Players | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Cornering the Market
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It looks like Boston won the Junichi Tazawa sweepstakes.

Boston already has veteran Japanese pitchers Daisuke Matsuzaka and Hideki Okajima on its roster, and Tazawa reportedly has expressed a desire to be a teammate of Matsuzaka. The two attended different high schools in Yokohama.

Will this open the floodgates? If Tazawa becomes a successful major league pitcher, MLB teams will step up their wooing of Japanese amateur free agents. I hope some agreement is reached that prevents this from causing the downfall of the Japanese major leagues.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:07 AM | International | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Keep Safe!
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I hope everyone traveling on this busy holiday has a safe trip and spends many wonderful hours with family and friends! I brought my daughter home yesterday, and the drive took only twice as long as usual.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:03 AM | Other | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Yale Band Eats Moose
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Yale suspends the YPMB over obscenities written on a prop during the halftime show at Harvard:

Adding insult to the injury of Harvard's 10-0 defeat Saturday in The Game, which was held in Boston, Yale University's director of bands, Thomas C. Duffy, suspended the marching band Monday because of a "completely inappropriate and highly offensive" prop used during the halftime show, according to the Yale Daily News.

The newspaper quoted an e-mail Duffy sent to band members: "I was personally embarrassed and offended, and professionally compromised. I am suspending the Yale Precision Marching Band from all activities and performances, effective as of this very moment."

It was unclear what element of the band's prank crossed the line, but The Daily News said the band used as a prop "a graffiti-covered replica of the Berlin Wall, (which) was the centerpiece of a halftime show that portrayed Harvard as a Communist empire."

Friends, this is what happens when you send your children to a safety school.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:10 AM | Other | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
No Charity
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A charity dumps Roger Clemens:

Although Clemens helped raise millions of dollars for charities associated with the event, the Giff Nielsen Day of Golf for Kids was held Nov. 11 at Houston's Shadow Hawk Golf Club without him.

"Roger Clemens is no longer affiliated with the tournament," said Nielsen, a Houston broadcaster. "We decided we would go our separate ways until his off-field stuff is settled.

"I approached him, and as we talked, we reached a mutual agreement that we would put our relationship on hold. He was good about it. He said 'I agree with the decision."'

It's amazing how far Roger has fallen. He either should have kept his mouth shut after the Mitchell report, or come completely clean and asked forgiveness. He's taken a path that just dragged him down.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:02 AM | Charity | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
November 25, 2008
Park Delayed
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The lawsuit against the Marlins new park delayed the opening one year. It's now slated to open in 2012. It's also possible that the delay saved money, however. Fuel costs are now lower, and interest rates for qualified borrowers are lower, also. Yes, the Marlins lose a year of revenue, but the stadium may actually be cheaper to build.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:57 PM | Stadiums | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Talking Stats
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Squawking Baseball posts an interview with Manny Acta, who is not afraid to talk sabermetrics:

SB: You're obviously a very statistically-inclined manager. How do you think that gives you an advantage over managers that aren't as progressive? MA: I want to win. More than being statistically-inclined, I'm very open minded. If someone can show me things that I didn't already know, I am willing to change. I'm not stubborn. If the statistical evidence shows I'm wrong, and it helps me and my team win baseball games, then I would be a fool not to listen.

SB: Looking back, have there been any decisions that you made that perhaps you wouldn't have if you had not been so aware of sabermetrics?
MA: I would have bunted less when I managed in the minors. I still would have had the minor leaguers run, because winning isn't the most important thing down there, and most players have the green light to work on their baserunning skills.

I hope the Nationals someday get Manny talent he can exploit. He seems like the kind of manager I'd like to put in charge of my team.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:47 PM | Management | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Short Names
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Once again, we should have shorted Citi Bank when they bought the naming rights to the Mets Stadium.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:48 AM | Stadiums | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Blog Survey
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The Blog Reader Project is conducting surveys. I would appreciate you taking the time to fill it out, since it will help direct advertising to this site. Thanks very much!

Please take my Blog Reader Project survey.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:41 AM | Blogs | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Peterson on the Way?
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Dan Wakamatsu let go two of the Mariners coaches, including pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre. That appears to pave the way for Seattle to hire former Atheltics and Mets pitching coach Rick Peterson.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:30 AM | Management | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
The O's Money
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The Baltimore Orioles are in the mix for A.J. Burnett:

"There is sincere and mutual interest (with the Orioles)," Braunecker is quoted as saying. "We're not here to waste people's time or our time. We don't need to create a false market for A.J. Burnett."

With Burnett's injury history, he may be perceived to be a cheaper option than Sabathia. That may actually push his value up, as more teams are willing to chase him.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:24 AM | Free Agents | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
More Brushes, More Greatness
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I had the pleasure of meeting Mike DiGiovanna at a social gathering at Jim Storer's house last night. Mike is the Angels beat writer for the Los Angeles Times. Like the rest of us there, he's a native Connecticutian. We had a good time talking about growing up in Connecticut, and of course baseball. I hope to have Mike on the Baseball Musings Radio Show soon.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:32 AM | News Media | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Creative Acquisition
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The Pirates signed the two Indian pitchers who won a reality show:

"The Pirates are committed to creatively adding talent to our organization," Pirates general manager Neal Huntington said Monday. "By adding these two young men, the Pirates are pleased to not only add two prospects to our system but also hope to open a pathway to an untapped market. We are intrigued by Patel's arm strength and Singh's frame and potential."

Neither pitcher has taken the mound in a game situation, no doubt a first for a Pirates prospect. They have pitched in scrimmages against junior college competition.

Wow. The Pirates really have nothing to lose, and this will give them some much needed publicity. I did not see how much money the young men received, but their lives have certainly been turned upside down. I like the way they are learning English:

Patel and Singh are learning English, most of which they have picked up from watching ESPN's Baseball Tonight and by taking online classes.

That reminds me of the two brothers in Better Off Dead who learned English by watching Howard Cosell. I hope these two young men don't end up sounding like John Kruk. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:15 AM | Transactions | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Brush with Greatness
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John Perricone ran into Tim Lincecum the other night:

First impression, he has that look, that glow, that the preternaturally gifted all seem to have. His handshake was impressive, to say the least. He did seem normal sized, not huge, but his hands were large, solid, and seemed very strong.

He was genuinely friendly, and I felt pretty great getting to meet him in person. Thanks for being such an approachable star, Tim.

I've noticed the hands on other players I've met. They all seem to have big mitts.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:10 AM | Pitchers | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
November 24, 2008
Small Victory
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The judge in the Barry Bonds perjury case dropped three charges and merged another, dropping the total from 15 to 11. I guess that makes the odds of winning a little better for Barry, but the prosecution needs only to get one to stick to walk away with a win. Not even baseball players, however, are considered successful with an .091 BA.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:15 PM | Crime | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Texas Interest?
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There are conflicting reports about the Rangers interest in Junichi Tazawa.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:46 PM | International | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Book Shipping
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The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2009 (Hardball Times Baseball Annual) is now shipping.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:32 PM | Books | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
He's Not the World
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Hideki Matsui won't be playing in the 2009 WBC due to his injury:

But although a major-league source confirmed that Matsui did have some interest in playing in the WBC, Matsui never told Hara (or any other Japanese player) that he would do so. Always diplomatic in his relationship with the Yankees, Matsui wouldn't put his team in a bad spot by putting his desires against the club's.

Nevertheless, by having Cashman make the announcement -- teams have more authority on rehabilitating players than they do regarding healthy players -- Matsui should receive less heat from his home fans than he did three years ago. This time, in other words, Matsui has an excuse.

It's too bad, Matsui would make them a better team.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:31 AM | World Cup | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
URL Change
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In anticipation of an eventual move to a new stadium and the name changing to the Miami Marlins, you can now reach the Marlins web site at marlins.com, not floridamarlins.com. Adjust your bookmarks!

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:57 AM | Management | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Pitches to Pitchers
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Matt Cerrone comments on the latest rumors about the Mets pursuit of starting pitching:

...wait, what...why...i can accept not wanting to give lowe a five-year deal, assuming that is what it will take to get him...but to be bullied out of the bidding, because the big, bad Red Sox and Yankees are in the mix, well that's just sad...and i hope it is not true...

Indeed. With a new stadium providing a higher revenue stream, the Mets should be right in the mix with the big guns from the American League.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:08 AM | Free Agents | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
November 23, 2008
Wooing Tazawa
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The Red Sox and Braves reportedly made offers to Japanese pitcher Junichi Tazawa, the young man who asked Japanese professional teams not to draft him.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:41 PM | International | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Polo Pictures
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The Baseball Zealot links to photos from the Polo Grounds. The collection gives one a nice feel for the park.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:31 PM | Stadiums | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
The View from the Bronx
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The Bronx View is a new blog and podcast devoted to the Yankees. Stop by and say hi.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:19 PM | Blogs | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2008, Defense Behind Pitchers
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As we know, a pitcher's ERA can be influenced by the defense behind him. This posts explores which pitchers were helped or hurt by their defenses based on how well fielders turned balls in play into outs based on how difficult they were off the bat.

Team PMR, 2008, Defense Behind Pitchers, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only
Pitcher TeamIn PlayActual OutsPredicted OutsDERPredicted DERRatio
Chien-Ming WangNYY306215 200.92 0.703 0.657 107.01
Daisuke MatsuzakaBos449327 306.07 0.728 0.682 106.84
Jesse LitschTor569407 382.14 0.715 0.672 106.51
Tim WakefieldBos539405 382.33 0.751 0.709 105.93
Ryan Rowland-SmithSea366262 249.06 0.716 0.680 105.20
Justin DuchschererOak409308 292.97 0.753 0.716 105.13
CC SabathiaCle334228 217.23 0.683 0.650 104.96
Tim HudsonAtl435317 302.69 0.729 0.696 104.73
Scott KazmirTB378277 264.57 0.733 0.700 104.70
Roy OswaltHou617436 416.75 0.707 0.675 104.62
Jeremy SowersCle409279 266.73 0.682 0.652 104.60
CC SabathiaMil353246 235.49 0.697 0.667 104.46
Armando GalarragaDet525391 375.29 0.745 0.715 104.19
Greg SmithOak578423 406.63 0.732 0.704 104.03
John LackeyLAA469329 316.59 0.701 0.675 103.92
Kyle KendrickPhi560380 365.69 0.679 0.653 103.91
Glen PerkinsMin520357 343.77 0.687 0.661 103.85
Ryan DempsterChC572406 391.16 0.710 0.684 103.80
Shaun MarcumTor427317 305.52 0.742 0.716 103.76
Paul ByrdCle446319 307.48 0.715 0.689 103.75
Brian MoehlerHou509356 343.33 0.699 0.675 103.69
R.A. DickeySea374263 253.88 0.703 0.679 103.59
Joe SaundersLAA623445 429.72 0.714 0.690 103.56
Dustin McGowanTor337228 220.26 0.677 0.654 103.51
Adam WainwrightStL404289 279.63 0.715 0.692 103.35
Josh BeckettBos492333 322.69 0.677 0.656 103.19
Jorge CampilloAtl490347 336.39 0.708 0.687 103.16
Ben SheetsMil589417 404.45 0.708 0.687 103.10
John LannanWas560401 389.21 0.716 0.695 103.03
Zach MinerDet385276 268.08 0.717 0.696 102.95
Kevin SloweyMin480340 330.37 0.708 0.688 102.92
Vicente PadillaTex524356 345.93 0.679 0.660 102.91
Jake PeavySD459331 322.53 0.721 0.703 102.63
Jeremy GuthrieBal587428 417.45 0.729 0.711 102.53
Cole HamelsPhi635464 453.13 0.731 0.714 102.40
David BushMil567422 413.33 0.744 0.729 102.10
Paul MaholmPit621437 428.22 0.704 0.690 102.05
Jeff FrancisCol469321 314.83 0.684 0.671 101.96
John DanksCWS569396 388.39 0.696 0.683 101.96
Scott BakerMin497354 347.21 0.712 0.699 101.96
Roy HalladayTor713501 491.48 0.703 0.689 101.94
Matt GarzaTB560399 391.43 0.712 0.699 101.93
Micah OwingsAri312220 215.84 0.705 0.692 101.93
Johan SantanaNYM668476 467.22 0.713 0.699 101.88
Scott FeldmanTex488344 337.73 0.705 0.692 101.86
Oliver PerezNYM527380 373.11 0.721 0.708 101.85
Derek LoweLAD644453 444.85 0.703 0.691 101.83
Scott OlsenFla640463 454.69 0.723 0.710 101.83
Felix HernandezSea577391 384.12 0.678 0.666 101.79
Doug DavisAri457303 298.15 0.663 0.652 101.63
Edwin JacksonTB582401 394.74 0.689 0.678 101.59
Dan HarenAri610421 414.60 0.690 0.680 101.54
Aaron CookCol725489 481.78 0.674 0.665 101.50
Kyle LohseStL650453 446.33 0.697 0.687 101.49
Jeff SuppanMil589407 401.18 0.691 0.681 101.45
Hiroki KurodaLAD598418 412.03 0.699 0.689 101.45
Dana EvelandOak519351 346.09 0.676 0.667 101.42
Jered WeaverLAA513355 350.05 0.692 0.682 101.41
Todd WellemeyerStL579419 413.37 0.724 0.714 101.36
Carlos ZambranoChC570404 398.66 0.709 0.699 101.34
Jamie MoyerPhi625437 431.36 0.699 0.690 101.31
Jon GarlandLAA684462 456.10 0.675 0.667 101.29
Braden LooperStL653453 447.51 0.694 0.685 101.23
Miguel BatistaSea379257 254.22 0.678 0.671 101.09
Jair JurrjensAtl589401 397.07 0.681 0.674 100.99
Matt CainSF630436 431.93 0.692 0.686 100.94
Kevin CorreiaSF382248 245.75 0.649 0.643 100.91
Gavin FloydCWS625450 446.51 0.720 0.714 100.78
Javier VazquezCWS598405 401.92 0.677 0.672 100.77
Tim LincecumSF562385 382.12 0.685 0.680 100.75
Jason MarquisChC554390 387.25 0.704 0.699 100.71
Aaron HarangCin552379 376.37 0.687 0.682 100.70
Jose ContrerasCWS402280 278.09 0.697 0.692 100.69
Johnny CuetoCin500344 341.79 0.688 0.684 100.65
Joel PineiroStL505342 339.90 0.677 0.673 100.62
Brad PennyLAD311212 211.06 0.682 0.679 100.45
Jon LesterBos632438 436.20 0.693 0.690 100.41
Boof BonserMin382249 248.24 0.652 0.650 100.31
Greg MadduxSD511360 359.16 0.705 0.703 100.23
Aaron LaffeyCle316217 216.67 0.687 0.686 100.15
Manny ParraMil499322 321.73 0.645 0.645 100.08
Gil MecheKC611420 419.79 0.687 0.687 100.05
Mike MussinaNYY613409 409.01 0.667 0.667 100.00
Jarrod WashburnSea512350 350.13 0.684 0.684 99.96
Chad BillingsleyLAD556370 370.36 0.665 0.666 99.90
Cliff LeeCle670462 462.50 0.690 0.690 99.89
Zack GreinkeKC587399 399.62 0.680 0.681 99.84
Ted LillyChC574412 412.67 0.718 0.719 99.84
Tim ReddingWas572397 397.98 0.694 0.696 99.75
Wandy RodriguezHou393266 266.71 0.677 0.679 99.74
Andy SonnanstineTB632432 433.24 0.684 0.686 99.71
Chris SampsonHou383267 267.83 0.697 0.699 99.69
Daniel CabreraBal594409 410.64 0.689 0.691 99.60
Bronson ArroyoCin605408 409.76 0.674 0.677 99.57
Joe BlantonOak440303 304.31 0.689 0.692 99.57
Jason BergmannWas445310 311.45 0.697 0.700 99.53
Brandon WebbAri671458 460.45 0.683 0.686 99.47
Ervin SantanaLAA605422 424.34 0.698 0.701 99.45
Zach DukePit669445 447.62 0.665 0.669 99.42
Kenny RogersDet598400 402.42 0.669 0.673 99.40
Ubaldo JimenezCol572395 397.49 0.691 0.695 99.37
Carlos SilvaSea564365 367.36 0.647 0.651 99.36
Nate RobertsonDet563365 367.59 0.648 0.653 99.30
Jo-Jo ReyesAtl361241 242.79 0.668 0.673 99.26
Clayton KershawLAD306204 205.65 0.667 0.672 99.20
Ricky NolascoFla606432 435.96 0.713 0.719 99.09
James ShieldsTB641448 452.73 0.699 0.706 98.96
Justin VerlanderDet598415 419.47 0.694 0.701 98.93
Mike PelfreyNYM652446 450.98 0.684 0.692 98.89
Randy JohnsonAri531359 363.22 0.676 0.684 98.84
Kyle DaviesKC361248 251.20 0.687 0.696 98.73
Edinson VolquezCin511350 354.63 0.685 0.694 98.69
Nick BlackburnMin658445 451.38 0.676 0.686 98.59
John MaineNYM399286 290.11 0.717 0.727 98.58
Pedro MartinezNYM337225 228.38 0.668 0.678 98.52
A.J. BurnettTor613405 411.37 0.661 0.671 98.45
Jorge de la RosaCol361240 243.99 0.665 0.676 98.37
Mark HendricksonFla439302 307.04 0.688 0.699 98.36
Brian BurresBal460309 314.46 0.672 0.684 98.26
Kevin MillwoodTex569360 366.45 0.633 0.644 98.24
Brian BannisterKC603408 415.51 0.677 0.689 98.19
Luke HochevarKC430291 297.11 0.677 0.691 97.94
Randy WolfSD348237 242.07 0.681 0.696 97.91
Brandon BackeHou512341 348.41 0.666 0.680 97.87
Barry ZitoSF576393 401.59 0.682 0.697 97.86
Cha Seung BaekSD353238 243.40 0.674 0.690 97.78
Brett MyersPhi554379 388.08 0.684 0.701 97.66
Mark BuehrleCWS699466 477.66 0.667 0.683 97.56
Odalis PerezWas507337 345.85 0.665 0.682 97.44
Andrew MillerFla336216 222.12 0.643 0.661 97.24
Tom GorzelannyPit332225 231.65 0.678 0.698 97.13
Jonathan SanchezSF442297 306.08 0.672 0.692 97.03
Livan HernandezMin525339 349.78 0.646 0.666 96.92
Garrett OlsonBal451295 304.47 0.654 0.675 96.89
Carlos VillanuevaMil320220 228.02 0.688 0.713 96.48
Ian SnellPit522335 347.60 0.642 0.666 96.38
Andy PettitteNYY641420 439.26 0.655 0.685 95.62
Darrell RasnerNYY387257 269.56 0.664 0.697 95.34
Adam EatonPhi356236 248.23 0.663 0.697 95.07
Fausto CarmonaCle405273 288.06 0.674 0.711 94.77

Those are pretty impressive numbers for Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield. Not only were balls in play against them easy to field, the Red Sox did a great job of turning them into outs. For Yankees fans who are concerned about New York signing Andy Pettitte again, better defense would improve Andy's runs allowed a great deal. CC Sabathia certainly benefitted from good defense in both Cleveland and Milwaukee, so teams looking to sign him should be prepared to send their best fielders out behind the lefty.

Brian Bannister shows how important defense is to a low strikeout pitcher. His expected DER is low, and with the Royals doing a poor job fielding behind him, his actual DER was even lower. Bannister really needs to play for a team of defensive wizards.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:38 AM | Probabilistic Model of Range | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
Stadium Talk
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Dugout Central posts a selection from the oral history of Yankee Stadium.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:44 AM | Stadiums | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
November 22, 2008
Manny Being Barry
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Giants Win sticks up for Barry Bonds as a player who helped the Giants win. The article that sets him off is an article that is down on the Giants signing Manny Ramirez due to the way Manny left Boston.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:54 PM | Free Agents | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Not Nice Ice
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Chad Billingsly broke his leg from slipping on the ice. Jon Weisman has details. Chad is expected to be ready for spring training.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:30 PM | Injuries | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Storm Entry
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I bought the Storm anyway. I wrote this from the phone.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:26 PM | Base Running | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
A Win and a Loss
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The Marlins won their legal battle to build a new stadium, but the delay will cost them time:

But the question becomes: Will the stadium be ready for Opening Day 2011, as planned?

Marlins President David Samson said the legal fight puts the answer in doubt.

''The Braman litigation was absolutely a delay,'' Samson said. ``We're evaluating the significance of that delay right now with our construction managers. I hope we have an announcement here within a week.''

The timing could be critical. The team's current lease with former owner H. Wayne Huizenga at Dolphin Stadium expires at the end of the 2010 season. The Marlins could ask the stadium owners for a partial year or month-to-month lease for 2011.

Braman said in an interview that his legal team will file an immediate appeal, another possible wrinkle in the stadium's plans.

They would not be the first team to move into a stadium mid season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:48 PM | Stadiums | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Mussina and the Hall
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King Kaufman looks at the pros and cons of Mike Mussina making the Hall of Fame.

Mussina got his 270 wins in 536 starts, meaning he got a W in 50.4 percent of them. Sutton got 321 wins -- he won three as a reliever -- in 756 starts, which was 42.4 percent. Tom Seaver, who pitched on a lot of bad teams and a few good ones, got 310 wins in 647 starts, 47.9 percent. Perry won 44.2 percent of his starts.

If Mussina had won at the same rate in Seaver's 647 starts, he'd have retired with 326 wins. That would have tied him with Eddie Plank for 13th all time, and not only would no one have suggested he didn't belong in the Hall, no one would have dismissed the gaudy win total because he played on a lot of winners. With Sutton's 756 starts -- including the one during the Battle of Bunker Hill -- Mussina would have won 381, more than anyone but Cy Young and Walter Johnson.

Mussina went fairly deep in games, averaging 6 2/3 innings per start. That didn't give the bullpen too much time to blow games. Combine that with a low ERA and playing for high scoring teams, and Mussina was a win machine. I have no doubt he could hang around long enough to win 300 games like Maddux and Glavine. He just wants to move on.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:32 AM | All-Time Greats | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Taking the Raines
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The Newark Bears named Tim Raines manager. This will mean a trip to Bridgeport to see the Bears play the Bluefish.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:16 AM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
November 21, 2008
Fewer Cuban Stars
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Two star Cuban players were thrown off the Havana Industriales for trying to defect:

Ace pitcher Yadel Marti and star outfielder Yasser Gomez have been thrown off Cuba's top league team for "a grave act of indiscipline," likely ending their hopes of playing in the 2009 World Baseball Classic.

That should make it a little easier for other teams to win.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:43 PM | World Cup | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Storm Alert
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I just got back from the Verizon Store, hoping to buy a BlackBerry Storm. I was very disappointed. First, I called to an in-town Verizon dealer to see if they had the phone, since they give me the same deal as Verizon. They didn't, because they had to send the phones they received back due to a last minute software upgrade that didn't get put on those phones. So I went to the Verizon store, figuring they would have the updated phones in stock. While I was waiting for a salesperson, I got to try the phone.

The first thing I noticed was that the switch from portrait to landscape was very slow. The first time I changed the orientation of the phone, nothing happened. I thought maybe the function was off, but after many seconds, the screen changed. If I want to flip to a different keypad, I don't want to wait seconds for the change. Then, when I was typing, I found the left-hand side of the QWERTY keyboard off. I kept getting a d instead of an s, and an r instead of an e. It also took me a while to figure out how to bring up the screen with the @ as I tried to enter an email address.

Then I tried to browse the web, but I couldn't find the browser application. By this time, a salesperson came to speak with me. She then talked to the technicians, who said the browser application disappearing was a known problem! I'm buying the phone for the browser! I asked if I would lose the browser on my phone, and she said probably not. The phone on display had been out three days under constant abuse. In my opinion, if a phone breaks down under three days of constant use, it's not a very good phone. Obviously, no one dropped it, since it was tethered by a retractable wire to the display.

On the good side, the touch screen does feel like a keyboard. I like the tactile feedback. I also called my wife on her cell phone, and the call was crystal clear. Unless, however, they resolve the bugs that make the browser application disappear, I would hold off on buying this phone. Once again, Verizon disappoints me.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:53 PM | Other | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
Maybe Mark Cuban Should Buy the White Sox
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South Side Sox reviews the White Sox deal for Dayan Viciedo.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:44 PM | Transactions | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Hal Hype
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I'm somewhat surprised with all the hype over MLB designating Hal Steinbrenner responsible for the Yankees. This seems like a formality. Of course it was going to be Hal, as he is the good cop in the Hal/Hank ownership duo. This announcement doesn't really change anything.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:58 AM | Owners | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Holiday Gift
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Mark Teixeira would like to be signed by Christmas. He probably wants whatever bonus comes with the new contract taxed this year.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:03 AM | Free Agents | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
More Phillies Surgery
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Dernell Stenson Award winner Jason Donald may not be blocked from starting, as the Phillies infielders keep going under the knife. This time, Pedro Feliz undergoes back surgery:

Feliz' procedure, a lumbar discectomy that will correct the intermittent symptoms that placed him on the disabled list for 26 days in July and August, requires an 8-to-12-week rehabilitation period, meaning he likely will be at full strength either at the start of spring training or soon thereafter.

The Phillies had Donald practicing at both Utley's and Feliz's positions:

Donald, meanwhile, has quickly become one of the Phillies' top prospects. He hit two home runs in a spring-training game against the Blue Jays, then hit .307 with 14 home runs and 54 RBI at Double A Reading. He also finished fourth in the recently completed Arizona Fall League with a .407 batting average.

During the AFL season, Donald played both second base and third base in addition to his natural position at shortstop.

I could see Donald moving into Feliz's position if he can post high OBAs as he did in the minors.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:41 AM | Injuries | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
November 20, 2008
Nine Innings No Matter What
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Bud Selig and the owners agreed on a rule change to make all tie-breaker and post-season games nine innings, no matter what.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:21 PM | Post Season | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Unhip
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I'm out at Red Robin and just saw on ESPN that Chase Utley needs hip surgery and may be out until mid-June. More later.

Update: Here's the story from Jayson Stark:

Utley consistently downplayed speculation about his bad hip during the second half of the postseason. But the Phillies revealed Thursday that since the World Series, he has had the hip evaluated by Phillies team physician Michael Ciccotti, of Thomas Jefferson University Hospital's Rothman Institute, and by Dr. Bryan Kelly, of the Hospital for Special Surgery in New York.

Both doctors recommended that Utley undergo surgery on his right hip. That procedure, described by the club as an "arthroscopic evaluation with treatment of any labral or bony injury," will be performed by Dr. Kelly next week.
According to the Phillies, Utley would be able to resume baseball activities in three to four months -- meaning sometime during spring training, but possibly not until the week before Opening Day.

However, full recovery time is projected at between four and six months. That means the best-case scenario is a return in early April, but the worst-case scenario is late May or early June, depending on how long a rehab option the club feels he would need.

So Amaro starts his tenure with a huge hole to fill. I wonder if this will make them more likely to re-sign Pat Burrell to keep two big bats in the middle of the lineup?

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:10 PM | Injuries | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
The 40 Man
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Paul DePodesta explains why it's not always the best idea to protect a player by putting him on the 40-man roster:

When weighing the risk of a player getting taken, it can be counterintuitive. It would seem logical that the best way to protect a player would be to put him on the 40-man roster. That is often, but not always, the case. Sometimes, for players who are borderline roster considerations, you may be safer by leaving him OFF the 40-man. The reason is that if he's taken in the Rule V, he has to stay in the Majors or else be offered back. However, if for some reason (add a free agent, add someone through trade, need someone during the season due to injury) you need to add a player to the 40-man at a later date, you may be forced to outright someone to make room. When you outright a first year roster player, he still has all of his minor league options, so teams can claim him and send him right into their minor league system. In short, it's much easier to lose a player trying to remove him from the 40-man than it is to lose him via the Rule V draft.
Posted by StatsGuru at 04:28 PM | Transactions | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Bullpen Changes
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Waiting for Next Year was surprised by the choice of Chuck Hernandez as the Indians bullpen coach.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:38 PM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Good-bye to Mike
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MikeMussina7890807231414_Twins_v_Yankees.jpg

Funky Mike Mussina
Photo: Icon SMI

Mike Mussina officially retired today. Peter Abraham posts the glowing press release:
A master of control, Mussina walked only 785 batters in 3,562.2 career innings, averaging 1.98 walks/9.0IP. According to Elias, he is one of just three pitchers in AL history to toss at least 3,000.0 innings while holding opponents to fewer than 2.0 walks/9.0IP, joining Jack Quinn (1.96) and Cy Young (1.11).

The thing that fascinated me about Mussina was the way strikeouts came to him later in his career. Pitchers tend to strikeout more batters early in their careers, then fade. Through age 26, Mike struck out an average of 5.6 batters per nine innings, an unimpressive number. For the rest of his career, that would rise to 7.6 per nine. I especially remember game one of the 1997 ALDS in which he struck out nine Mariners in seven innings. He struck out 16 in the series. That wasn't the Mussina I knew, but when I looked at his record the changeover was clear.

My belief is that Mussina discovered with the increase in power during this era, he could take advantage of players swinging for the fences:

"I'm trying to get the guy to swing at a pitch he doesn't want to swing at," he explains. David Ortiz of the Boston Red Sox, a disciplined power hitter, has struggled against Mussina. Ortiz might see a first-pitch curveball and then, depending on his reaction, another one a bit lower. After he sees two curves, a fastball will seem quicker than it really is. So two fastballs might follow -- one low, one high, to change Ortiz's eye level -- and if Mussina has two strikes by then, he might offer a curveball down and hope Ortiz chases it for strike three.

He certainly had an interesting career, one that should land him in the Hall of Fame. I hope he enjoys his retirement. He'll be missed.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:32 PM | All-Time Greats | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Winning 20 at Last
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Rob Neyer devotes his column to the pitchers to win 20 games in their last season of play. He includes the interesting story of Henry Schmidt.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:07 PM | Pitchers | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Contract Values
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Studes points out this post at Brew Crew Ball showing the difference between the Yankees offer and the Brewers offer to CC Sabathia is a lot less than $40 million. That's probably another reason the Yankees didn't incrementally bid up the price.

In the post, Jeff Sackmann also makes the point that a shorter time frame on the contract might make Sabathia more money in the long run. It's a good point, and one that seems to be ignored by players these days.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:54 AM | Free Agents | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Sticking to their Plan
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The other day the Cardinals said signing lefty relievers was their priority, and now it appears Trever Miller is in the fold. This would be Miller's seventh team and ninth stint with a different team. Miller did do a good job as a lefty specialist in 2008, holding left-handed batters to a .209 BA. He walked a high number, however, as lefties posted a .305 OBA. Still, those are good numbers and what teams look for in that very specialized position.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:56 AM | Free Agents | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Yankees Not Not Interested
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The Yankees are not ruling out any free agent signings, therefore, they must be interested in Teixeira, too.

"Our focus is on our pitching, but that doesn't mean we're closed-minded," Cashman said. "If the pitching doesn't go the way we want it, we'll have to re-focus. We're going to be engaged on the entire free agent market. How it plays out, I can't predict."

It looks like the Boston and New York papers are trying to create a bidding war over the first baseman.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:42 AM | Free Agents | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
An Award for the Phillies
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Phillies prospect Jason Donald takes home the Dernell Stenson Award for sportsmanship in the Arizona Fall League. Donald is a shortstop who gets on base. Given that Rollins is blocking him through 2010, he might end up as a decent trading chip for the organization.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:34 AM | Awards | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
November 19, 2008
The Barlett Voter
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Marc Topkin voted for Jason Barlett on his MVP ballot. I'll give him a pass, however, since he voted Mauer much higher than Morneau.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:36 PM | Awards | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The Rift
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Junichi Tazawa is causing problems between the North American and Japanese major leagues:

Many Japanese baseball officials are outraged that United States teams are courting Tazawa, a hard-throwing right-handed pitcher, because they insist it is long-established practice for amateurs like him to be strictly off limits to major league clubs. Even some American general managers, including the Yankees' Brian Cashman, agree.

Major League Baseball officials maintain that the letter of their protocol agreement with their Japanese counterparts, Nippon Professional Baseball, does not forbid either league from courting amateur talent from the other's nation. When one Japanese representative characterized the rule as a gentleman's agreement during a meeting in New York, he was angrily rebutted by a Major League Baseball official, according to two attendees.

The Tazawa dispute extends beyond one pitching phenom and an interpretation of honor. The Japanese major leagues have already seen established stars leave for American clubs, and amateurs following Tazawa's path away from those leagues could further hurt the leagues' long-term viability.

The answer, of course, is to make all amateurs free agents and encourage teams all over the world to bid on them. Bring the Japanese into direct competition with North America, and when the two leagues come into parity, we can hold a true World Series.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:21 PM | International | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Not Official
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Arn Tellem issues this statement on Mussina:

Mike will be making a decision on his intentions shortly. Given the significance of this to Mike, I would hope you can respect his desire to be the author of any such announcement consistent with his own time table. A decision of this magnitude should not be the subject of unconfirmed rumors and speculation. Accordingly, I am not going to make any further comment until Mike has made his final decision.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:20 PM | Players | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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If you missed tonight's show, you can hear the recorded version here. It's also available at TPSRadio.net.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:04 PM | Podcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Retiring Moose?
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Ken Rosenthal reports Mike Mussina will retire later this week. I'll wait for the official word.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:07 PM | Players | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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The Baseball Musings Radio Show is coming up tonight at 8 PM EST on TPS Radio. You can watch, listen and chat here. If you want to leave a question, feel free to do so in the comments to this post.

TPS Radio is on channel 100. At the bottom of the player you'll see a control with an up and down arrow. Click on that and select channel 100 from the list.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:06 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Double Secret Probation
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Tony Massaroti is making stuff up. He believes the Red Sox will offer Mark Teixeira the biggest contract in club history. Why?

When the Sox want something enough, they make sure they get it.

In the case of Teixeira, rest assured that the Sox want him, no matter what games are being paid by club officials. Publicly and privately, the Sox are saying nothing about their interest in Teixeira and playing dumb every time his name comes up. It's as sure a sign as any that they are preparing to go to extraordinary lengths. Last year, in the midst of the Johan Santana trade talks, the Sox were far more forthcoming about who and what they were willing to offer. When all was said and done, the Sox were not interested in acquiring Santana so much as they were interested in driving up the price for the rival Yankees; as it turned out, they kept Santana out of the Bronx altogether.

So the fact that the Red Sox aren't interested in Teixeira is a sure sign they are interested in Teixeira. An amazing bit of logic that. Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe hope Boston isn't interested in them either.

"CC, which team will you sign with?"

"Probably Boston. They haven't shown any interest in me, so I should be getting 10 years, $250 million!"

Yep, that's just the way it works.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:48 PM | Free Agents | Comments (12) | TrackBack (0)
One Game Playoff
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Lew Wolff's idea of shortening the playoffs is to make the first round best of one:

"I'd make it one-game-and-you're-out for the first series," the Oakland Athletics owner said Wednesday. "It would be exciting. It would be great."

Begun in 1995, the division series has been a best-of-five competition. Some people have advocated it be expanded to best-of-seven, matching the league championship series and the World Series. Baseball commissioner Bud Selig has repeatedly said he favors the current format.

Wolff said he hasn't brought up his concept with Selig.

That would certainly make things pretty random. In 2008, we would have had the same four teams in the LCS as well.

Maybe this is the way to do the World Baseball Classic. Make it sixteen teams, single elimination. The tournament would end in five days so team can get back to spring training. If the teams are seeded and the opponents are set from the original pairings, office and online pools would pop up and there would be a lot more interest in the WBC.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:03 PM | Post Season | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Not Everyone Loves Raymond
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The Rays fired the person who wears the Raymond outfit without explanation. Maybe they want an actual male taking over the role!

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:52 PM | Mascots | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Remembering 1971
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Dustin Pedroia winning the AL MVP reminds Josh Wilker of the 1971 MVP vote in which Fred Patek finished ahead of Bobby Murcer, despite Murcer being a much better ballplayer that season.

My favorite Patek moment came at the end of the 1977 ALCS. All series long the announcers kept telling us about the great fundamentals of the Royals, embodied by Fred Patek. They split the first two games at Yankee Stadium, and won game three in Kansas City with two more to play at home.

The Yankees won game four, and trailed 3-1 in game five going into the eighth, at which point Whitey Herzong over-managed his bullpen. New York scored one in the eighth and three in the ninth to take a 5-3 lead.

Patek comes up in the bottom of the inning, one out and a man on first. Patek was 7 for 17 at that point with three doubles and a triple. Certainly the great fundamental ballplayer would find a way to keep the Royals alive. Instead, he grounds into a double play. The Kansas City crowd stood at their seats in stunned silence as the Yankees celebrated on the field, and alone on the bench Fred Patek sat alone and cried.

It was one of the most amazing crowd reactions I've seen in sports. The only other thing that came close was Harvard winning the 1989 NCAA hockey championship. The game was played in St. Paul against Minnesota. Minnesota fans out-numbered Harvard fans 100-1. The Crimson scored in overtime to win the game. As ESPN pulled back to show the crowd, everyone stood their in stunned slience, except for a small section where the Harvard University Band was jumping up and down.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:50 AM | Awards | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Coco a Go-Go?
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There is an unconfirmed report that the Royals and Red Sox worked out a deal for Coco Crisp:

Sports radio station WHB 810 in Kansas City reported this morning that the Red Sox have traded center fielder Coco Crisp to the Royals for righthanded relief pitcher Ramon Ramirez.

But during an on-air interview a few moments ago, Royals senior adviser Mike Arbuckle would not confirm that the deal was complete.

"I would say Coco is a good player and we're always interested in getting good players," said Arbuckle, who recently joined the Royals after working in the front office of the World Champion Philadelphia Phillies.

Crisp's career OBA is .331, which is okay, and an improvement over the Royals .320 mark of 2008. So, unlike the Mike Jacobs trade, the Royals would be moving toward their goal of a better team OBA, and ramping up their defense in center as well.

In the two seasons Ramirez picked up a decent amount of innings, he pitched well. He's good at keeping the ball in the park, strikes out batters without giving up too many walks. This looks like a good move for the Red Sox, trading away a spare part and improving the bullpen. We'll see if the deal actually goes down.

Update: The Red Sox confirmed the trade.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:00 AM | Trades | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2008, Pitchers
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The survey of the positions ends with the pitchers. First the teams:

Team Pitchers PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Blue Jays 4215 181 161.32 0.043 0.038 112.20
Tigers 4536 187 171.99 0.041 0.038 108.72
Padres 4419 217 202.55 0.049 0.046 107.13
Royals 4413 170 161.90 0.039 0.037 105.00
Mariners 4512 161 154.23 0.036 0.034 104.39
Twins 4607 190 183.22 0.041 0.040 103.70
Mets 4335 200 192.92 0.046 0.045 103.67
Nationals 4417 193 186.24 0.044 0.042 103.63
Dodgers 4265 217 209.44 0.051 0.049 103.61
Cubs 4156 179 174.74 0.043 0.042 102.44
Phillies 4396 198 193.35 0.045 0.044 102.40
Rockies 4535 204 201.22 0.045 0.044 101.38
Cardinals 4597 205 203.96 0.045 0.044 100.51
Braves 4383 213 211.93 0.049 0.048 100.51
Indians 4513 169 168.95 0.037 0.037 100.03
Astros 4292 159 160.96 0.037 0.038 98.78
Marlins 4338 162 164.14 0.037 0.038 98.70
Red Sox 4232 154 156.88 0.036 0.037 98.17
Diamondbacks 4224 193 196.62 0.046 0.047 98.16
Pirates 4683 211 215.78 0.045 0.046 97.78
White Sox 4409 190 194.51 0.043 0.044 97.68
Rangers 4667 178 184.54 0.038 0.040 96.46
Angels 4374 148 154.21 0.034 0.035 95.97
Reds 4299 174 181.34 0.040 0.042 95.95
Orioles 4540 152 158.73 0.033 0.035 95.76
Yankees 4349 186 194.41 0.043 0.045 95.67
Athletics 4285 142 149.52 0.033 0.035 94.97
Rays 4264 114 124.63 0.027 0.029 91.47
Giants 4232 142 156.07 0.034 0.037 90.98
Brewers 4354 183 205.85 0.042 0.047 88.90

The Blue Jays not only posted an excellent team ERA, but helped themselves defensively as well. The Brewers staff depended more on the fielders behind them. In looking at the individuals, experience appears to be a key to doing well:

Individual Pitchers PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only (500 balls in play)
Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Jesse Litsch 569 39 24.20 0.069 0.043 161.16
Greg Maddux 649 59 39.59 0.091 0.061 149.04
Kenny Rogers 598 56 38.39 0.094 0.064 145.87
Livan Hernandez 674 31 22.40 0.046 0.033 138.39
Javier Vazquez 598 29 21.39 0.048 0.036 135.61
Felix Hernandez 577 32 24.02 0.055 0.042 133.25
Jeremy Guthrie 587 23 17.74 0.039 0.030 129.67
Jon Garland 684 31 24.42 0.045 0.036 126.92
Justin Verlander 598 23 18.21 0.038 0.030 126.33
Gil Meche 611 28 22.50 0.046 0.037 124.43
Kyle Kendrick 560 32 26.17 0.057 0.047 122.28
Zack Greinke 587 26 21.34 0.044 0.036 121.86
Bronson Arroyo 605 32 26.95 0.053 0.045 118.72
Cole Hamels 635 35 29.59 0.055 0.047 118.30
Joel Pineiro 505 28 23.71 0.055 0.047 118.07
Tim Wakefield 539 16 13.55 0.030 0.025 118.07
Tim Redding 572 22 18.86 0.038 0.033 116.64
Jason Marquis 554 35 30.06 0.063 0.054 116.42
Ryan Dempster 572 36 31.12 0.063 0.054 115.67
Joe Saunders 623 31 27.14 0.050 0.044 114.24
Glen Perkins 520 23 20.25 0.044 0.039 113.58
Vicente Padilla 524 20 17.70 0.038 0.034 113.02
Roy Oswalt 617 31 27.46 0.050 0.045 112.90
Brandon Webb 671 54 48.10 0.080 0.072 112.27
Aaron Cook 725 44 40.31 0.061 0.056 109.15
Jeff Suppan 589 28 25.91 0.048 0.044 108.06
Scott Olsen 640 20 18.55 0.031 0.029 107.84
Jair Jurrjens 589 37 34.69 0.063 0.059 106.66
Gavin Floyd 625 26 24.44 0.042 0.039 106.39
Zach Duke 669 37 35.21 0.055 0.053 105.09
Oliver Perez 527 17 16.28 0.032 0.031 104.42
Barry Zito 576 20 19.28 0.035 0.033 103.75
Paul Maholm 621 31 29.90 0.050 0.048 103.69
Matt Cain 630 27 26.14 0.043 0.041 103.30
Andy Sonnanstine 632 20 19.44 0.032 0.031 102.89
Hiroki Kuroda 598 39 37.92 0.065 0.063 102.84
Jon Lester 632 21 20.46 0.033 0.032 102.63
Kevin Millwood 569 25 24.56 0.044 0.043 101.80
Greg Smith 578 16 15.75 0.028 0.027 101.56
Brett Myers 554 23 22.85 0.042 0.041 100.64
Ted Lilly 574 15 15.03 0.026 0.026 99.79
Brian Bannister 603 30 30.11 0.050 0.050 99.63
Jamie Moyer 625 20 20.19 0.032 0.032 99.04
John Danks 569 24 24.25 0.042 0.043 98.97
Jarrod Washburn 512 20 20.39 0.039 0.040 98.07
Ubaldo Jimenez 572 35 35.69 0.061 0.062 98.06
Edinson Volquez 511 24 24.49 0.047 0.048 98.02
Mike Pelfrey 652 29 29.63 0.044 0.045 97.88
Kyle Lohse 650 30 30.67 0.046 0.047 97.81
CC Sabathia 687 27 27.67 0.039 0.040 97.59
Paul Byrd 608 17 17.52 0.028 0.029 97.04
Roy Halladay 713 31 32.28 0.043 0.045 96.03
Derek Lowe 644 39 40.83 0.061 0.063 95.52
Chad Billingsley 556 21 22.07 0.038 0.040 95.14
Joe Blanton 652 25 26.28 0.038 0.040 95.13
Odalis Perez 507 23 24.23 0.045 0.048 94.93
Dana Eveland 519 17 17.94 0.033 0.035 94.76
John Lannan 560 29 30.68 0.052 0.055 94.53
Armando Galarraga 525 13 14.04 0.025 0.027 92.57
Mike Mussina 613 28 30.47 0.046 0.050 91.88
Johan Santana 668 30 32.68 0.045 0.049 91.81
Ian Snell 522 21 23.11 0.040 0.044 90.85
Jered Weaver 513 10 11.02 0.019 0.021 90.71
Brandon Backe 512 16 18.01 0.031 0.035 88.85
Todd Wellemeyer 579 15 16.95 0.026 0.029 88.51
Carlos Zambrano 570 23 26.30 0.040 0.046 87.45
Nick Blackburn 658 24 27.47 0.036 0.042 87.36
Mark Buehrle 699 27 31.03 0.039 0.044 87.02
A.J. Burnett 613 24 27.68 0.039 0.045 86.70
James Shields 641 19 21.96 0.030 0.034 86.52
Carlos Silva 564 14 16.40 0.025 0.029 85.36
Dan Haren 610 24 28.16 0.039 0.046 85.21
Matt Garza 560 15 17.82 0.027 0.032 84.18
Edwin Jackson 582 12 14.35 0.021 0.025 83.61
Johnny Cueto 500 18 21.67 0.036 0.043 83.08
Ervin Santana 605 18 22.09 0.030 0.037 81.49
Ricky Nolasco 606 17 21.08 0.028 0.035 80.65
Nate Robertson 563 20 24.99 0.036 0.044 80.03
Randy Wolf 557 25 31.51 0.045 0.057 79.34
Tim Lincecum 562 17 21.44 0.030 0.038 79.28
Braden Looper 653 20 25.71 0.031 0.039 77.80
Brian Moehler 509 12 15.68 0.024 0.031 76.53
Aaron Harang 552 13 17.37 0.024 0.031 74.84
David Bush 567 18 24.87 0.032 0.044 72.37
Randy Johnson 531 12 16.86 0.023 0.032 71.17
Andy Pettitte 641 22 30.94 0.034 0.048 71.11
Cliff Lee 670 17 28.39 0.025 0.042 59.89
Daniel Cabrera 594 11 18.98 0.019 0.032 57.95
Ben Sheets 589 14 24.34 0.024 0.041 57.52

Jesse Litsch is young, but 2-4 are all veterans, and Maddux seems to come out near the top quite often. Mike Mussina, however, did not appear to deserve his gold glove. Remember to take this ranking with a grain of salt, since pitchers are not in the field that often compared to position players, and get many fewer chances to field balls. Luck is a much bigger factor in this group.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:49 AM | Probabilistic Model of Range | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Republic Sells
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The Arizona Republic sold their stake in the Diamondbacks. They invested $7 million, but the report does not mention how much they received for their investment. I assume they needed the cash infusion to keep the paper going. I wonder when the New York Times sells their stake in the Red Sox?

Hat tip, AZ Snakepit.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:34 AM | Owners | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Long Term for Pedroia?
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Will the Boston Red Sox sign Dustin Pedroia to a long term deal?

Pedroia's agent certainly can go into any negotiations with a bit more confidence, but the Sox will go about their business the same way. They aren't against long-term deals for young, controllable players as long as the numbers make sense to them.

In other words, they'd do it if the long-term numbers wind up favoring the team - just as Evan Longoria's potential nine-year deal with Tampa Bay (which includes three option years) favors the Rays. But the Sox aren't afraid to go year to year with the probability they'll have to pay out more money just before free agency if they decide they want to keep the player.

The long term deals save money in two ways. They tend to understate salary inflation, and they save the cost of arbitration. These contracts also make players more tradable, since if the future value is really lower than salary inflation, teams can get a good deal in a trade. With economic conditions uncertain, however, the Red Sox may be better off going year-to-year with Dustin.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:16 AM | Players | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
November 18, 2008
The No Vote
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Amalie Benjamin gets Evan Grant's reasons for leaving Dustin Pedroia off his MVP ballot:

"I think the best way for me to sum it up is, in retrospect, obviously I was wrong," Grant said by phone. "My colleagues all, and people I respect an awful lot, thought Dustin deserved to be in the top 5. I had him on my ballot in some scenarios as high as No. 1 late into September. When I looked at the numbers that to me mattered most, OPS and batting average with runners in scoring position, he just didn't stack up with Youkilis at all. He was a laggard behind the others who had great years in the American League. Is it an error of omission that he's left off my ballot entirely? You could say that."

This wasn't as bad as the person who left Pedro off the ballot in 1999, and his reasoning is pretty sound. However, he also voted Mauer 8th, so maybe his overall reasoning isn't so sound.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:40 PM | Awards | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Ryan but no Jake?
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Ivy Chat looks at how the signing of Ryan Dempster may preclude the Cubs from a Jake Peavy trade.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:37 PM | Pitchers | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Remembering Stenson
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The Arizona Fall League named the six finalists for the Dernell Stenson award. Stenson was killed in a car jacking while playing in the league in 2003.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:22 PM | Awards | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Pulling Back on Mark
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Stan Kasten tries to roll back excitement on a potential Mark Teixeira deal for the Nationals.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:17 PM | Free Agents | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Pedroia MVP
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Dustin Pedroia wins the AL Most Valuable Player Award fairly easily, capturing 16 first place votes to Justin Morneau's seven. Pedroia was left off one ballot, however. He did not receive a vote lower than fourth. Teammates of the 1-2 finishers, Kevin Youkilis and Joe Mauer finished third and fourth. Each picked up two first place votes and Francisco Rodriguez took the other, finishing sixth behind Carlos Quentin. Mauer actually picked up the most second place votes, but his ballot placements were more spread out than Morneau and Youkilis, dropping Joe to fourth.

Pedroia is a perfectly good pick, but I still don't understand valuing Morneau over Mauer. Roy Halladay did not receive a single vote. Probably the strangest vote was a fifth place to Jason Bartlett, although during the season I did hear someone argue he was the Rays MVP.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:02 PM | Awards | Comments (23) | TrackBack (0)
Dempster Staying Put?
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The Cub Reporter rounds up news that Ryan Dempster will stay in Chicago at a very good price.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:58 PM | Free Agents | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Background Checks
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Jack Zduriencik probably won't announce his pick for the new Seattle manager until tomorrow:

"What I did today and plan to do [Tuesday]," he said, "is continue to touch base with dotting i's and crossing t's, in terms of background and history, so there are no surprises in the final selection."

What he is trying to avoid, no doubt, is any semblance of the Wally Backman debacle in Arizona after the 2004 season. Hired by the Diamondbacks on Nov. 1, Backman was fired on Nov. 5 after revelations of legal and financial problems surfaced.

It's also a good idea from a publicity standpoint. People will be focused on the AL MVP vote today, but tomorrow the Mariners should get all the attention.

Update: Don Wakamatsu appears to have the inside track.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:51 AM | Management | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Training Train
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Bless You Boys comments on Dontrelle Willis's winter workout.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:43 AM | Pitchers | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
AL MVP Preview
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Joe Mauer

Joe Mauer
Photo: Icon SMI

The BBWAA announces the American League Most Valuable Player Award winner this afternoon at 2 PM EST. This is a very tough race to predict for a number of reasons.

First, the Red Sox own two viable candidates, Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia. Boston media and fans are pushing Pedroia, although Youkilis produced better averages.

Second, the Twins also trot out two viable candidates in Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. In my opinion, the combination of Mauer's offense and defense are much better than Morneau's, but voters like the home runs and RBI that comes in the other package.

Carlos Quentin, who might have been an easy first choice, missed the last month of the season.

Josh Hamilton, the feel good story of the last two years, cranked out RBI at a very high rate. He also plays with a teammate, Milton Bradley, who put up better averages.

In a year like this, where I suspect different regions will produce different results (the Minnesota players getting votes in the midwest, the Boston players getting votes in the East, Hamilton and Bradley getting votes in the west), don't be surprised to see Alex Rodriguez sneak in. Alex led the AL in VORP (subscription required) and was a close third in home runs at 35. It's possible that if the first place vote is split enough, and Alex turns out to be a consensus second choice, he could win the award. I don't think that will happen, mostly because the Yankees didn't make the playoffs. In a vote in which there are so many players so close, I would not be surprised if the consensus second place player won. Throw in Grady Sizemore and Cliff Lee to the mix, and there are possibly nine players who might pull down a first place vote.

I like Mauer myself. My ballot would probably look like:

  1. Joe Mauer
  2. Kevin Youkilis
  3. Dustin Pedroia
  4. Carlos Quentin
  5. Grady Sizemore
  6. Alex Rodriguez
  7. Josh Hamilton
  8. Roy Halladay
  9. Milton Bradley
  10. Cliff Lee

I'm very curious to see how this one comes out. The advantage of a Borda count voting system is that it produces a viable winner when there is no clear cut first choice.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:27 AM | Awards | Comments (12) | TrackBack (0)
More Quality
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Joe Magrane joins the MLB Network. I've been impressed with their hires so far.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:22 AM | Broadcasts | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Embarrassing Embarrassment
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Phil Sheridan embarrasses himself by writing that the NL MVP vote embarrassed the voters:

Pujols was not an embarrassing selection, not with his excellent numbers, but was still the wrong selection. And that should embarrass the association enough to do what it should have done long ago: get out of the business of voting on baseball's postseason awards - as well as the Hall of Fame.

That won't happen because the association is as incapable of being embarrassed as is Major League Baseball itself.

Voting for Edinson Volquez was an embarrassment. Manny Ramirez finishing fourth in the MVP poll was a bit of an embarrassment. Getting the vote right by picking Albert Pujols showed that some writers actually know what they are doing.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:13 AM | Awards | Comments (24) | TrackBack (0)
November 17, 2008
Monkey Business
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The Marcel the Monkey projections are now available at The Book Blog.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:18 PM | Predictions | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The Signings Start
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The Giants get the ball rolling:

Reliever Jeremy Affeldt became the first of 171 free agents to agree to a contract, striking an $8 million, two-year deal Monday with the San Francisco Giants.

He's put up two good years in a row playing in parks that favor the hitter. The money is right in line with Damaso Marte's contract, and Affeldt is younger and pitches more innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:49 PM | Free Agents | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
A Lawn Grows in Queens
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A helicopter photo shows Citi Field with grass in place.

The two New York stadiums seem to be moving along quite well. I wonder if they'll avoid the last minute fixes we've seem in other places?

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:24 PM | Stadiums | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Replacement Game
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The Hall of Fame came up with a replacement for the Hall of Fame Game:

Baseball's legends and old-timers will play in a new Hall of Fame Classic game beginning in 2009.

The inaugural Hall of Fame Classic will be held on Father's Day, June 21. The game replaces the Hall of Fame Game, which was discontinued this year after 68 years.

This might even be more fun. Instead of a group of minor leaguers filling in, their will be players people know and care about. It's a nice compromise.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:08 PM | All-Time Greats | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Pujols Wins MVP
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Albert Pujols wins the NL MVP award, taking both the most first place and second place votes.

Pujols, who previously won the award in 2005, was the only player whose name appeared on all 32 ballots submitted by two writers in each league city. He was listed first on 18 ballots, second on 10, third on two, fourth on one and seventh on one for a total of 369 points, based on the tabulation system that rewards 14 points for first place, nine for second, eight for third and on down to one for 10th.

It's a very interesting vote, with Howard finishing second, and Brad Lidge receiving two first place votes but finishing eighth. Outside of Pujols and Howard, there was no real consensus. Manny Ramirez finished fourth, which is pretty amazing considering he was in the league for just two months. Sabathia finished sixth, again the voters recognizing the impact of a short term player. For the second year in a row, I'm surprised at the lack of support for Hanley Ramirez.

A question arose as to my earlier post, as to why I left Berkman off the ballot when I thought he played better than Ryan Howard. The answer was simply that Berkman was just another first baseman having a great year. Down ballot, I like to recognize accomplishments. So Howard leading the majors in home runs goes down there, as does Manny's two incredible months with the Dodgers, and Tim Lincecum's Cy Young season. I think there can be some subjectivity to the MVP ballot, especially down ballot.

Congratulations to Albert Pujols on his second win. If Barry Bonds hadn't been around early in the decade, we might have seen four or five wins by now.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:21 PM | Awards | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
PMR Runs, Leftfielders
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Dan Turkenkopf calculates runs allowed or saved for leftfielders based on their PMR stats.

Update: Here are the runs for first basemen as well.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:46 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Insider Keeps Cuban Outsider?
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Mark Cuban charged with insider trading. Will that hurt his attempt to buy the Cubs? Thanks to Bob Tufts for the link.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:07 PM | Owners | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Talking to Closers
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The Mets asked the agents for both Francisco Rodriguez and Brian Fuentes to call them before they sign with anyone else. They also appear to have at least talked about a contract with K-Rod.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:32 AM | Free Agents | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Wakefield to Retire?
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YFSF notes a rumor that Tim Wakefield may retire due to pain in his shoulder.

If true, that leaves the Red Sox with a big hole -- you cannot replace a starter who consistently posts a 100-115 ERA+ over 200 innings with a salary of just $4 million. On the other hand, it would eliminate the need for a specialized Wakefield-only catcher, making perhaps more possible a Varitek-Saltalamacchia semiplatoon as the one passes his baton to the other.

Luckily, his replacement is in Japan!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:06 AM | Players | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
NL MVP Preview
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Ryan Howard

Ryan Howard
Photo:Icon SMI

The BBWAA announce the National League MVP award this afternoon, and the pundits seem to handicap it as a race between Albert Pujols and Ryan Howard. However, that ignores a middle infielder with a great season, Hanley Ramirez.

There is no doubt Albert Pujols was the best hitter in the majors this season. If I'm filling out a ballot, Pujols gets my number one vote. I'm not sure how high I rank Howard. Here's a list of qualifying MLB players by slugging percentage. Note that Hanley finishes just three points behind Howard, and blows him away in both batting average and OBA. On top of that, he played a pretty good shortstop this season. Voting Howard second also ignores Lance Berkman, who posted better numbers as a first basemen, and other offensive contributors at key defensive positions like David Wright, Carlos Beltran and Howard's own teammate Chase Utley. If Ryan wins the award or finishes second, the Home Run/RBI wing of the voters is still alive and well.

Hanley Ramirez

Hanley Ramirez
Photo:Icon SMI

My ballot would be something like:

  1. Albert Pujols
  2. Hanley Ramirez
  3. Chase Utley
  4. Carlos Beltran
  5. David Wright
  6. Dan Uggla
  7. Tim Lincecum
  8. Ryan Braun
  9. Ryan Howard
  10. Manny Ramirez

Manny was certainly the spark that brought the division to the Dodgers, but it's tough for me to include him for two months worth of work. I might put Cole Hamels there instead. We'll see how the voters decided at 2 PM EST.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:40 AM | Awards | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Holding Back?
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Lookout Landing examines the claim that Francisco Rodriguez was just holding back on his fastball to gain control.

Francisco Rodriguez is a good closer. Of that there's no question. But there are already a lot of miles on his arm, and he's coming off the worst season of his career in which his fastball dropped a few ticks. That's bad. Those are two major red flags, and you better believe the league is aware. I would not want to be a fan of the team that ends up footing his contract, because while free agency is almost always about paying for what a guy's already done (as opposed to what you expect him to do), this one takes that to another level.

All pitchers eventually lose something off their fastballs. The good ones adjust by improving their control. It usually happens when they're 30, not 26, however.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:46 AM | Pitchers | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The Female Wakefield
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A new Japanese independent team drafted a woman. Eri Yoshida is just 16 years old:

"I always dreamed of becoming a professional," Yoshida, who is 5-feet tall and weighs 114 pounds, told a news conference Monday. "I have only just been picked by the team and haven't achieved anything yet."

Yoshida throws a side-arm knuckleball and says she wants to follow in the footsteps of Boston Red Sox pitcher Tim Wakefield, who has built a successful major league career throwing a knuckleball.

I've thought for a while that a knuckleball might be the way for a woman to play against men, or as a really slick fielding second baseman. I hope she pitches well.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:35 AM | women | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
November 16, 2008
Buyers Market for the Mets
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Joel Sherman notes that the Mets are benefitting from the number of closers available on the free agent market:

Now the Mets do not like Hoffman's stuff, and if you were guessing where Wood would end up, then playing for fellow fireballing Texan Nolan Ryan's Rangers would be a good bet (he is the team president). But the definitive league-wide availability of Hoffman and Wood only further saturated the closer market. And only gave greater confidence to the Mets that they not only will find a closer this offseason, but find him via free agency, which is their preference because that would allow them to protect their farm system.

The market has become so saturated, in fact, that an AL official regularly in touch with the Mets executives said it was his perception the Mets will wait to see if supply-and-demand take holds and the price falls, especially for the two main free-agent closers, Brian Fuentes and Francisco Rodriguez. As Hardball previously has reported, the Mets' main targets this offseason are Fuentes and Derek Lowe.

Having options helps prevent teams from being held up by players.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:11 PM | Free Agents | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Suspension Threat
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It appears the Red Sox came very close to suspending Manny Ramirez late in July.

According to multiple sources, Boston management had drafted an official letter of suspension for Ramirez, and delivered it to him at Fenway Park at around 11 p.m. on Friday night, July 25. For the second straight game, Ramirez had refused to play that evening, and the Red Sox lost 1-0 to the rival New York Yankees in front of a boisterous and sold-out home crowd. The letter informed Ramirez that the suspension was to go into effect the next day, Saturday, July 26. It said Ramirez was being suspended without pay for being unwilling to play. Copies of the letter were also sent to Major League Baseball, the MLB Players Association and Ramirez's agent, Scott Boras.

Suspensions in baseball are not unusual for players who test positive for performance-enhancing drugs or who are involved in fights during a game. It is extremely rare for a player to be suspended, or threatened with such a suspension, for refusing to play.
Within two hours after Ramirez received the letter of suspension, the Red Sox received two calls, according to sources. The first call was from one of Ramirez's teammates. He told a member of Boston's front office that Ramirez would play in Saturday afternoon's game against the Yankees. Within minutes, the second call came in from Ramirez himself, who confirmed that he would be available for Saturday's game.

If the story is correct, the threat appeared to work.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:27 PM | Players | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2008, Catcher
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Our survey of the positions continues with catchers. Catchers don't field very many balls, so take these rankings with a grain of salt. First, the teams:

Team Catchers PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Brewers 4354 71 63.52 0.016 0.015 111.78
Mets 4335 54 48.85 0.012 0.011 110.53
Astros 4292 41 37.24 0.010 0.009 110.11
Pirates 4683 53 48.61 0.011 0.010 109.03
Twins 4607 45 41.93 0.010 0.009 107.32
Yankees 4349 56 52.39 0.013 0.012 106.89
Rangers 4667 49 46.47 0.010 0.010 105.44
Rockies 4535 58 55.02 0.013 0.012 105.42
Orioles 4540 41 39.10 0.009 0.009 104.86
Phillies 4396 58 56.28 0.013 0.013 103.06
Braves 4383 63 61.73 0.014 0.014 102.07
Diamondbacks 4224 50 49.19 0.012 0.012 101.65
Nationals 4417 34 33.64 0.008 0.008 101.08
Padres 4419 64 63.44 0.014 0.014 100.88
Mariners 4512 42 42.22 0.009 0.009 99.47
Dodgers 4265 38 38.45 0.009 0.009 98.82
Blue Jays 4215 57 57.84 0.014 0.014 98.54
Angels 4374 44 44.74 0.010 0.010 98.35
Tigers 4536 58 59.27 0.013 0.013 97.86
White Sox 4409 39 39.88 0.009 0.009 97.80
Giants 4232 48 49.80 0.011 0.012 96.38
Rays 4264 50 51.91 0.012 0.012 96.32
Red Sox 4232 51 53.09 0.012 0.013 96.07
Royals 4413 49 51.24 0.011 0.012 95.62
Marlins 4338 58 60.75 0.013 0.014 95.47
Indians 4513 45 47.90 0.010 0.011 93.94
Cardinals 4597 47 50.66 0.010 0.011 92.78
Athletics 4285 28 31.42 0.007 0.007 89.12
Reds 4299 52 60.30 0.012 0.014 86.23
Cubs 4156 42 51.03 0.010 0.012 82.31

It looks like the Mets trade for Brian Schneider turned out to be a good one from a defensive standpoint. It also looks like rookie of the year Geovany Soto might have some things to learn behind the plate. Let's look at the individuals:

Individual Catchers PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Wil Nieves 1327 14 9.94 0.011 0.007 140.90
J.R. Towles 1252 8 6.01 0.006 0.005 133.04
Kevin Cash 1131 14 10.77 0.012 0.010 129.95
Ryan Doumit 2933 31 26.57 0.011 0.009 116.66
Carlos Ruiz 2517 42 36.54 0.017 0.015 114.95
Guillermo Quiroz 1176 8 7.01 0.007 0.006 114.11
Chris Iannetta 2633 35 30.83 0.013 0.012 113.52
Humberto Quintero 1321 15 13.41 0.011 0.010 111.87
Victor Martinez 1388 16 14.48 0.012 0.010 110.53
Jason Kendall 3988 67 60.93 0.017 0.015 109.97
Jason LaRue 1288 16 14.58 0.012 0.011 109.72
Joe Mauer 3805 41 37.60 0.011 0.010 109.03
Ramon Castro 1041 14 12.97 0.013 0.012 107.97
Gregg Zaun 1807 30 28.04 0.017 0.016 106.97
Dioner Navarro 2911 38 35.59 0.013 0.012 106.77
Ivan Rodriguez 2947 42 39.65 0.014 0.013 105.93
Brian Schneider 2575 30 28.52 0.012 0.011 105.19
Jeff Mathis 2351 33 31.46 0.014 0.013 104.90
Josh Bard 1253 21 20.28 0.017 0.016 103.56
Ramon Hernandez 3272 33 32.09 0.010 0.010 102.83
Miguel Montero 1191 15 14.77 0.013 0.012 101.53
Chris Snyder 2733 33 32.54 0.012 0.012 101.41
Brad Ausmus 1719 18 17.82 0.010 0.010 101.04
Gerald Laird 2419 24 23.76 0.010 0.010 101.00
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 1470 17 16.85 0.012 0.011 100.90
Jose Molina 2152 23 22.80 0.011 0.011 100.89
Brandon Inge 1541 21 21.16 0.014 0.014 99.24
A.J. Pierzynski 3428 31 31.53 0.009 0.009 98.31
Brian McCann 3470 49 50.81 0.014 0.015 96.44
Miguel Olivo 1509 19 19.85 0.013 0.013 95.70
John Buck 2902 30 31.39 0.010 0.011 95.57
Yorvit Torrealba 1819 21 22.19 0.012 0.012 94.65
Kurt Suzuki 3608 25 26.45 0.007 0.007 94.50
Matt Treanor 1561 23 24.36 0.015 0.016 94.43
Nick Hundley 1482 18 19.13 0.012 0.013 94.11
Bengie Molina 3272 36 39.00 0.011 0.012 92.31
Geovany Soto 3302 34 37.47 0.010 0.011 90.75
Rod Barajas 2262 24 26.60 0.011 0.012 90.24
Russell Martin 3655 31 34.63 0.008 0.009 89.52
Jason Varitek 3002 37 42.26 0.012 0.014 87.56
Jesus Flores 2116 13 15.03 0.006 0.007 86.52
David Ross 1238 17 19.69 0.014 0.016 86.35
Kenji Johjima 2617 20 23.53 0.008 0.009 85.01
Yadier Molina 3185 29 34.24 0.009 0.011 84.70
Mike Napoli 1931 10 12.08 0.005 0.006 82.77
Paul Bako 2272 20 24.25 0.009 0.011 82.48
Kelly Shoppach 2774 25 30.66 0.009 0.011 81.54
John Baker 1477 13 15.96 0.009 0.011 81.46
Chris Coste 1853 15 18.62 0.008 0.010 80.57
Shawn Riggans 1041 11 14.08 0.011 0.014 78.12

Here's another reason Joe Mauer gets my vote for AL MVP. He's not only a great offensive catcher, but he fields his position well also. For those teams interested in Jason Varitek, his ranking here is certainly another strike against him.

It's also interesting to note that Jarrod Saltalamacchia wasn't terrible behind the plate. I know there's much more to the position than the ability to field, but in this regard, Saltalamacchia shows a positive behind the plate.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:58 AM | Probabilistic Model of Range | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Quote of the Day
Permalink

Doug Melvin doesn't understand the Yankees bid for CC Sabathia:

"It sounds like they're overbidding," Melvin said. "If the speculation is true that we've offered CC $100 million, why would you offer $140 million? Why wouldn't you offer $110 million?"

Because, Doug, if they offered $110 million you might bid again. This way, they drive out all of the teams that can't afford $140 million, and see who's left. This leaves the Yankees with a lot less work to do. Since Sabathia is probably worth around $27 million a year, or $162 million over six years, the Yankees just took the bidding up to a decent level where it will move along faster.

Melvin should bid $150 million for six years. In all likelihood, the Yankees will top that. So Doug gets to look like a hero to the Milwaukee fans for being willing to spend top dollar on Sabathia without shelling out any money, plus he forces the Yankees to bid higher.

If all the other teams are scared away by New York's offer, the Yankees get Sabathia cheap. If they take part in incremental bidding, however, there's a chance another team breaks it's limit on CC. If someone bid $125 million, then $135 million, maybe they feel they've invested so much time in trying to obtain Sabathia's services that they are willing to break their $140 million limit and go to $145 or $150 million. If, however, that limit is met with the first bid, there's no reason to even get started. So by trying to drive out all the other bidders, the Yankees might actually save money over using Melvin's rational strategy.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:02 AM | Management | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
November 15, 2008
Expanding Stats
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The Mariners are adding a statistics department:

The department will fall under the auspices of Tony Blengino, a longtime baseball stats analyst and a special assistant to new Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik. Details of the department's mandate and size are still to be worked out, but the move could vault the Mariners from their perceived Stone Age approach to stats to one in which they're seen as one of the game's more progressive franchises.

"We want to take all the information at our disposal and combine it with our scouting," Blengino said Friday.

Good for them. They've used Matt Olkin as a consultant, and it's not clear if that relationship will continue. If you're looking for a job in this area, it's a good time to send your resume to the Mariners!

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:25 AM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
No Manny in LA
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The Dodgers withdrew their offer to Manny Ramirez:

According to the Dodgers' website, the team has pulled its initial offer to free agent outfielder Manny Ramirez. What that means exactly remains to be seen because the team says it will continue to negotiate with him.

I find this a strange negotiating strategy. At this point, they'd be bidding against themselves. Until there is a better bid on the table, why withdraw the offer? I suppose it's possible that no other team bids for Manny, and then the Dodgers come back with a lower offer, but the probability of that is pretty low.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:55 AM | Free Agents | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Looking for Lefties
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The Cardinals first priority is signing left-handed relievers.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:18 AM | Free Agents | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
High Supply
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Richard Griffin wonders if the large number of second tier free agents, combined with the poor economy, will push prices down:

The fact of the matter is that the effects of the recession will be felt by the majority of the 171 free agents (almost seven full team rosters) that have now placed themselves on the open market. It would not be surprising to quietly see the Jays and many others of their financial ilk enter the New Year without inking any major free agents, waiting into mid-January for the panic among the multitude of remaining players to set in when bargains can be had.

It might be a good winter for free agents to take one or two guaranteed seasons, instead of holding out; they can then explore free agency again when the world economy has had a chance to rebound.

Even at the high end, teams are unlikely to go overboard. If you don't get Sabathia, you can alway land Sheets, Dempster or Lowe, or trade for Jake Peavy.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:13 AM | Free Agents | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
November 14, 2008
No Peavy in Atlanta
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The Braves are officially out of the Peavy sweepstakes.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:03 PM | Trades | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bidding Opens
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The Yankees open the bidding on CC Sabathia:

The Yankees have officially tendered an offer to CC Sabathia, ESPN's Buster Olney reports.

Sabathia, the 2007 AL Cy Young winner, split last season between the Indians and Brewers (17-10 2.70).

The Yankees offered a six-year deal worth more than $137.5 million, Olney reports.

Let's call in $140 million, or $23 million per year. That seems to be a good place to start. He's worth more than that per year, but teams may not wish to go that far out in terms of seasons.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:23 PM | Free Agents | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
All Part of the Plan
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Nick Swisher and CC Sabathia are friends.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:43 PM | Free Agents | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Free Agent Value
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Dave Cameron, in calculating a value for CC Sabathia, sets the price for buying a free agent at $5.5 million per win. That puts the price of Sabathia somewhere between $27 million and $30 million per year, depending on the length of the contract.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:24 PM | Free Agents | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Fire Sale Questions
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Ducksnorts offers an FAQ on the Padres fire sale.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:05 PM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Nationals Interest
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Dave Sheinin discusses how the Nationals might convince Mark Teixeira to sign with Washington:

"Mark, you are a once-in-a-lifetime player, especially to a franchise like ours. The Nationals see you as the foundation, someone with deep local ties who could be the face of our franchise for the next [six/eight/ten] years. We will build this team around you, and when we're ready to win it all - and we're closer than people think - you will have been part something truly special.

"Nowhere else in baseball can give you what you can get here, Mark. We're not only just down the road from your hometown. We're also the nation's capital. You'll have congressmen and Supreme Court justices watching you nightly. You might be a regular guest at the White House, given the President-Elect's love of sports.

"Face it: You can never own L.A., or Boston - at least not as long as Kobe and Tom Brady are alive. But you can own this town, Mark. It yours if you want it."

The Nationals minor league teams did well, and that's often a precursor to major league improvement.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:19 AM | Free Agents | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Free ESPN?
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It appears the ESPN blogs are no longer behind the Insider subscription wall. I can see Rob Neyer's blog and Peter Gammon's blog. Is this sweeps week or did ESPN finally wise up?

Update: It looks like Jayson Stark's blog is still behind the wall. Still having Neyer and Law free is great.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:54 AM | Blogs | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2008, First Basemen
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The Probabilistic Model of Range survey continues with first basemen:

Team First Basemen PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Cardinals 4597 363 330.17 0.079 0.072 109.94
Rays 4264 337 309.47 0.079 0.073 108.90
Astros 4292 352 334.44 0.082 0.078 105.25
Angels 4374 348 332.57 0.080 0.076 104.64
Reds 4299 340 326.62 0.079 0.076 104.10
Orioles 4540 330 317.28 0.073 0.070 104.01
Braves 4383 309 301.26 0.070 0.069 102.57
Giants 4232 306 298.46 0.072 0.071 102.53
Mariners 4512 312 305.65 0.069 0.068 102.08
Padres 4419 314 308.13 0.071 0.070 101.90
Athletics 4285 287 282.84 0.067 0.066 101.47
Cubs 4156 339 334.40 0.082 0.080 101.38
Mets 4335 323 319.48 0.075 0.074 101.10
Pirates 4683 293 290.12 0.063 0.062 100.99
White Sox 4409 295 292.85 0.067 0.066 100.73
Red Sox 4232 300 298.07 0.071 0.070 100.65
Blue Jays 4215 346 345.24 0.082 0.082 100.22
Rangers 4667 292 292.72 0.063 0.063 99.75
Dodgers 4265 288 290.00 0.068 0.068 99.31
Rockies 4535 311 318.74 0.069 0.070 97.57
Phillies 4396 335 345.93 0.076 0.079 96.84
Tigers 4536 258 267.90 0.057 0.059 96.31
Brewers 4354 299 311.39 0.069 0.072 96.02
Royals 4413 270 282.47 0.061 0.064 95.58
Nationals 4417 279 292.73 0.063 0.066 95.31
Indians 4513 276 290.25 0.061 0.064 95.09
Yankees 4349 270 286.22 0.062 0.066 94.33
Marlins 4338 296 314.60 0.068 0.073 94.09
Diamondbacks 4224 292 311.45 0.069 0.074 93.76
Twins 4607 262 283.33 0.057 0.061 92.47

As you might expect from the ranking of the top two National League teams, Pujols and Berkman competed with the glove as well as the bat:

Individual First Basemen PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Albert Pujols 3833 310 275.70 0.081 0.072 112.44
Carlos Pena 3428 272 250.39 0.079 0.073 108.63
Rich Aurilia 1398 94 88.21 0.067 0.063 106.57
Lance Berkman 3899 329 309.21 0.084 0.079 106.40
Mark Teixeira 4009 322 302.91 0.080 0.076 106.30
Kevin Millar 3607 264 250.96 0.073 0.070 105.20
Joey Votto 3686 300 285.79 0.081 0.078 104.97
Todd Helton 2272 165 158.79 0.073 0.070 103.91
Casey Kotchman 3659 268 259.14 0.073 0.071 103.42
Paul Konerko 3069 214 207.95 0.070 0.068 102.91
Kevin Youkilis 2835 212 206.26 0.075 0.073 102.78
Adrian Gonzalez 4302 307 300.33 0.071 0.070 102.22
Derrek Lee 3848 322 315.59 0.084 0.082 102.03
Daric Barton 3322 211 207.92 0.064 0.063 101.48
Carlos Delgado 4088 306 305.60 0.075 0.075 100.13
Lyle Overbay 3919 330 329.98 0.084 0.084 100.01
James Loney 4023 267 267.57 0.066 0.067 99.79
Chris Davis 1295 81 81.23 0.063 0.063 99.72
Miguel Cairo 1223 84 84.91 0.069 0.069 98.93
Adam LaRoche 3647 224 226.60 0.061 0.062 98.85
Aaron Boone 1040 61 62.74 0.059 0.060 97.23
Richie Sexson 2103 133 137.24 0.063 0.065 96.91
Ryan Howard 4254 322 336.79 0.076 0.079 95.61
Nick Swisher 1340 81 84.91 0.060 0.063 95.40
Prince Fielder 4133 280 293.92 0.068 0.071 95.26
Chad Tracy 1496 110 115.89 0.074 0.077 94.92
Ross Gload 2727 163 171.75 0.060 0.063 94.91
John Bowker 1607 104 110.60 0.065 0.069 94.03
Miguel Cabrera 3772 220 234.22 0.058 0.062 93.93
Ryan Garko 3323 198 211.16 0.060 0.064 93.77
Conor Jackson 1696 109 117.40 0.064 0.069 92.85
Sean Casey 1042 65 70.15 0.062 0.067 92.65
Justin Morneau 4289 242 261.41 0.056 0.061 92.57
Jason Giambi 2795 164 177.51 0.059 0.064 92.39
Garrett Atkins 1638 101 110.77 0.062 0.068 91.18
Mike Jacobs 2860 175 194.95 0.061 0.068 89.77

Year after year Albert Pujols shows his defensive skill at first base. Lance Berkman is up there, also, making the MVP argument between the two that much closer. Mark Teixeira also offers an excellent glove to go along with his fine offense.

The most surprising ranking to me, however, is Justin Morneau. Justin is still young and shouldn't have lost a step. He's someone worth looking at in more detail. Of course, at the very bottom is Mike Jacobs, giving Royals fans another reason to dislike the trade.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:51 AM | Probabilistic Model of Range | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Local Bidding War
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Both the Mets and Yankees are planning on pursuing CC Sabathia. Imagine having to face Santana and Sabathia on consecutive days!

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:34 AM | Free Agents | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
November 13, 2008
Peavy Not a Brave
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It looks like Ken Rosenthal was right on this one. The Padres don't have a deal with the Braves or the Cubs, and now they are looking to trade Jake Peavy to an American League team:

The Yankees and Angels could be next in line. At season's end, Peavy said he doesn't want to go to an American League team, but during the GM meetings at Dana Point last week, Towers said Peavy might be open to going to the Yankees and Angels.

If the Yankees and Angels become viable trade partners, Towers' leverage would increase, but because Peavy's consent is needed for a trade, that leverage is contingent on Peavy reversing his position. Barry Axelrod, Peavy's agent, gave no indication Thursday night that Peavy suddenly has become excited about going to the AL, but he did not rule it out.

That Kei Igawa deal is looking better all the time. Igawa, Kennedy and one of the Yankees outfielders to San Diego for Peavy. His contract is relatively cheap for an ace, and gives the Yankees plenty of money leftover to sign Sabathia. That would give New York a rotation of CC, Peavy, Wang, Chamberlain and either Pettitte or Hughes as a fifth starter, or even Mike Mussina if he still wants to pitch. Not bad, and they'd still have enough money left over to sign either Manny Ramirez or Mark Teixeira.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:00 PM | Trades | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Joe Morgan Outlasts the Competition
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Fire Joe Morgan closed their doors. They will be missed.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:56 PM | Blogs | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
No Agreement
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Randy Johnson and the Diamondbacks could not reach an agreement. Johnson becomes a free agent and issues a statement to his Arizona fans.

Randy instructed us not to file for free agency until we made every effort to reach an agreement. The Diamondbacks have a budget based on their club's financial situation and obviously viewed Randy's contract in that context. Randy considered every reasonable compromise including offering to take a 50% pay cut, all to remain a Diamondback. However, the economic situation did not lend itself to an agreement.

Consequently, Randy is forced to file for free agency and consider all opportunities to further his career. He hopes to find a team where he can continue to pitch at a high level and contribute to another World Championship.

Randy and his family live in Arizona and he will always be a Diamondback at heart. Most of all, Randy will miss the overwhelming support the fans have shown him throughout the years. He wishes the Diamondbacks great success in 2009 and beyond."

I wonder if a team will sign him to a contract. He pitched well at times in 2008 but poorly at others. He still strikes out a high number of batters. Maybe he could be a Sunday pitcher for some club to keep his starts low.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:02 PM | Free Agents | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
More on Swisher
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Peter Abraham posts audio of Brian Cashman talking about the Swisher deal and sums it up also:

Swisher is not here to play CF. Cashman made that clear. He's here to play 1B. Cashman did not close the door to anything else happening (he never does), but it's pretty evident that they see Swisher playing 1B and having the ability to play LF or RF on occasion. That would enable them to keep Jorge Posada in the lineup once in a while as the 1B.

...

This move allows the Yankees to focus their attention (and money) on starting pitching. Mark Teixeira just lost a lot of leverage.

I wonder how much of that last bit was the plan all along. The Yankees might see how the bidding goes on Teixeira, and if it's not too high sweep in at the last moment with a great bid. That's pretty much how they got Johnny Damon. They made him a tough to refuse offer and gave him very little time to accept or reject it. It's easy enough to move Nick to the outfield if Cashman manages to land Teixeira anyway.

More likely, however, is that they'll buy two starting pitchers.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:09 PM | Trades | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Gregg on the Face
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Dave Cameron at FanGraphs doesn't like the Cubs/Marlins trade in which Chicago appears to be replacing Kerry Wood with Kevin Gregg.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:50 PM | Trades | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Yankees Get Texiera
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Nick Swisher

Nick Swisher
Photo: Icom SMI

The Yankees acquired Kanekoa Texeira from the White Sox, along with a slightly better known player:
The New York Yankees acquired center fielder-first baseman Nick Swisher in a trade with the Chicago White Sox on Thursday.

The Yankees traded infielder Wilson Betemit and minor league pitchers Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez to Chicago in exchange for the switch-hitting Swisher and minor league pitcher Kanekoa Texeira.

Swisher is coming off a very disappointing season. I would have thought moving from Oakland to Chicago would have improved his power because of the park. He did hit well in Chicago, but was abysmal on the road. His career road numbers are much better, so if 2008 was a fluke, the Yankees are getting a good hitter.

I'm not sure he's the answer at first, however. I would rather see him in right, and have the Yankees sign a real power hitter at first base.

As a minor league reliever, Texeira does exactly what a team wants; lots of strikeouts, few walks and a minuscule number of home runs.

New York dumps Wilson Betemit, but gives up two decent enough pitchers in Nunez and Marquez. In general, the trade makes the Yankees younger, and the White Sox get a utility infielder and two pitchers who might help them in the future.

If the Yankees play Swisher in the outfield, I like the deal for them. If they think he's the answer at first base, I think they'll be disappointed.

Hat tip to YFSF.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:53 PM | Trades | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Winning-Lee
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Cliff Lee

Cliff Lee
Photo: Icon SMI

Cliff Lee wins the American League Cy Young Award fairly easily. He took 24 of 28 first place votes and four second place votes. Roy Halladay received the other four first place votes. Amazingly, Halladay only appeared on 25 ballots. Three voters did not put Roy in the top three AL pitchers, despite some evidence that he pitched as well as Lee this season.

Voters seemed to be impressed with save totals, as Francisco Rodriguez tallied seven second place votes and eleven third place votes to finish in third. Mariano Rivera picked up three third place votes as well.

Daisuke Matsuzaka and Ervin Santana rounded out the field of pitchers receiving votes. I don't really have a problem with any of these pitchers receiving votes, I just can't see leaving Halladay off any ballot.

Congratulations to Cliff Lee on recovering from an awful 2007 season to come back and win the highest honor for a pitcher!

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:38 PM | Awards | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Where's Manny Going?
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Apparently, not to the Dodgers.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:29 PM | Free Agents | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Rating Managers
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R.J. Anderson makes a nice attempt at putting a number on managerial choices. It might make Yankees fans feel a bit better about letting Joe Torre go in favor of Joe Girardi.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:45 PM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Rightfield Runs
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Dan Turkenkopf list PMR Runs for rightfielders.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:12 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Storm Brewing
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I'm not the only baseball blogger excited about the new Blackberry Storm. I've kept my Motorola Q way beyond the upgrade date (if you consider 8 months way beyond) because I've been waiting for the phone. From what I've seen, the storm may be it. I can't wait to get one in my hands to see if it really supports blogging the way I want to do it on a hand-held device. It looks like it supports copy and paste of URLs, which is the one thing my Q lacks.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:07 PM | Blogs | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Kei Trade?
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River Ave. Blues comments on Kei Igawa making the AAA all-star team:

I don't really know what else I can add to this news. I, for one, am glad the Yanks' $46-million investment is paying dividends for some team. That 6.66 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in 71.2 big league innings makes me wonder just how bad AAA hitters are anyway.

Now, can we trade him?

That's a good question. He's not exactly blowing away minor league hitters. His 3.45 MiLB ERA is good but not great. My guess is put him in San Diego where get gets to face the weak hitters of the NL West in a tough park for hitters, and he'll get by as a fifth starter. Maybe the Yankees can package him for Peavy?

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:53 AM | Pitchers | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Growing the Garden
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The Twins extended Ron Gardenhire's contract two years today. Unless something goes wrong, he'll be managing when Minnesota opens their new ballpark in 2010.

The 51-year-old Gardenhire, who was runner-up to Tampa Bay's Joe Maddon in the AL Manager of the Year voting, took over as Twins skipper before the 2002 season. He has led the team to four AL Central titles in his first seven years, posting winning records in six of those seven campaigns.

Only Tom Kelly, with 1,140 victories, has more wins than Gardenhire with the Twins.

It's good to see success rewarded. Ron's also one of the longest tenured managers right now, only trailing Bobby Cox, Tony La Russa and Mike Scioscia.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:38 AM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Good Show
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The MLB Network hired Harold Reynolds and Al Leiter. I like the way the MLB Network is putting together their studio show. I've worked with both men and I think there's a good chance this group will give Baseball Tonight a run for their money.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:14 AM | Broadcasts | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Peavy Deal Imminent?
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CBSSportsline says yes. Ken Rosenthal says maybe.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:35 AM | Trades | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
AL Cy Young Preview
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The BBWAA bestows the American League Cy Young award this afternoon. The smart money rests on Cliff Lee, who both won the most games in the American League and posted the lowest ERA. His main competition for the award comes from 20-game winner Roy Halladay.

Lee came out of the gate strong, winning his first six starts and throwing nine shutout innings in his seventh, only to see Cleveland lose the game in extra innings. He went through two rough patches, on at the end of May and one at the end of September. Overall, however, he allowed two runs or less in 21 of his 31 starts, and two earned runs or less in 22 of those starts.

Lee's strengths lay in his control and home runs allowed. He walked just 34 men on the season, a little over one per start and 1.4 per nine innings. He gave up just 12 home runs, or 10.7 per 200 innings pitched. He did allow a higher batting average with runners in scoring position compared to his overall BA allowed, but he only saw 165 at bats out of 847 total with men in scoring position. He just didn't allow men past first base very often.

The best case for Roy Halladay comes from the competition he faced. Lee, playing in the AL Central, faced Kansas City five times and the Twins four times. He went a combined 7-1 against those teams with a 2.69 ERA. Halladay, competing in the AL East, faced the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees a total of 16 times, nearly half his starts. In those 16 games, Halladay posted a 10-6 record with a 2.96 ERA in 118 2/3 innings. That's an average of 7 1/3 innings per start against three good teams.

Halladay posted the same walks per nine as Lee, struck out batters at a higher rate, but also gave up a few more home runs. Like Lee, Halladay gave the opposition very few chances with runners in scoring position, and allowed just a .214 BA in the situation.

This is a tough one for me to pick. Lee leads in ERA, and when he was on was absolutely brilliant. Halladay faced much tougher competition during the season and responded to the challenge. Both deserve the award. Lee will probably win, but Halladay's tougher competition would likely push my first place vote to Roy.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:37 AM | Awards | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
November 12, 2008
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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If you missed tonight's show, you can hear the recorded version here. It's also available at TPSRadio.net.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:06 PM | Podcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Done Deal
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The Athletics-Rockies trade is official:

Matt Holliday hardly could have expected to land with the low-budget Oakland Athletics.

The A's completed their trade with the Colorado Rockies for the star outfielder Wednesday, securing the big bat Oakland sought for the middle of its order.

''Originally, it was a little bit of a surprise considering I've never been traded before,'' Holliday said. ''I spent my first 11 years of professional baseball in the Rockies organization. Any time you make a change there's a bit of an unknown.''

Colorado received right-handed reliever Huston Street, lefty starter Greg Smith and promising outfielder Carlos Gonzalez from the A's. The clubs reached a tentative agreement Monday, but had to wait for the results of physicals and other details to be worked out.

Now I wonder what other moves might come as a surprise from Oakland this winter? Maybe they'll sign a big name free agent!

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:58 PM | Trades | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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The Baseball Musings Radio Show is coming up tonight at 8 PM EST on TPS Radio. You can watch, listen and chat here. If you want to leave a question, feel free to do so in the comments to this post.

TPS Radio is on channel 100. At the bottom of the player you'll see a control with an up and down arrow. Click on that and select channel 100 from the list.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:27 PM | Broadcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Managing an Award
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Lou Piniella

Lou Piniella
Photo: Icon SMI

The BBWAA award Manager of the Year this afternoon, Joe Maddon walking away with the award in the American League and Lou Piniella taking home the trophy in the National League.

I agree 100% with the first four spots in the National League voting. Lou Piniella got the Cubs out in front early and kept them in first place most of the season. He managed his offense, his starting staff and his bullpen well. My favorite moment from the season was when Lou came out to get Ted Lilly, who had pitched himself into a tough situation. Lilly didn't want to come out of the game and glared at Lou as the manager walked out to the mound. This was the kind of behavior that didn't go over well when Lilly pitched in Toronto. As Piniella approached the mound, however, he saw the glare and appeared to say to Lilly something like, you want him, go get him (meaning the batter). Lilly walked the next batter, and Lou removed him then, but he turned what could be a tense moment into a chance to show confidence in one of his players.

Charlie Manuel, who finished second and received eight first place votes helped the Phillies through the ups and downs to an NL East title (these votes are based on the regular season). Fredi Gonzalez gets the "team did better than expected vote." Joe Torre comes in fourth, leading the Dodgers to the playoffs thanks to a weak division, the Manny trade, and Joe finally playing the youngsters over the veterans.

Joe Maddon

Joe Maddon
Photo: Icon SMI

In the AL, Maddon ran away with the win. This was clearly due to the Rays far outperforming expectations, even the 88 wins predicted by PECOTA. My Maddon moment came in the playoffs. Evan Longoria's mechanics were off, so Maddon took him out to the batting cage and put him through some pattern recognition drills with numbered tennis balls. That turned him around, at least until the World Series.

The surprise to me was Gardenhire's finish in second place. I'm attributing that to coming close to the playoffs with the loss of Johan Santana. However, the Angels under Mike Scioscia out-won their Pythagorean projection, and the White Sox were as much an underdog as the Twins in the AL Central, but actually won it. Ozzie Guillen deserves some credit for that, but maybe his profanity laced rants lost him the press. I would have voted Maddon, Scioscia, Guillen 1-2-3.

Congratulations to Joe Maddon and Lou Piniella on their well deserved awards!

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:53 PM | Awards | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Manny News
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David Ortiz spoke on the radio about Manny Ramirez, and says lots of good things about his ex-teammate. He was also asked if Manny quit on the team:

"Well, to tell you the truth, it was something going down between the Red Sox and Manny Ramirez that I can never really break that down for you because there's some personal reasons that he has with our owners and I never got to the bottom of it, and [he's] got his feelings, you know, Manny was, he got to the point that he really wanted to get to play for someone else.

"I'll tell you one thing, I'm the kind of guy that I look at the positive side of everything and Manny, I get to learn a lot of things from Manny. Manny's one of the guys that worked hard every day to have some really good performances out there, and I never saw Manny not getting prepared to play. . . now he wasn't happy here, everybody knows that. And when a relationship get to the point, you gotta make a move just like we did, and you go from there."

Also, via Deadspin, the Nationals will bid for Ramirez.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:11 PM | Free Agents | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
With a Name Like Padres, You'd Think They'd Have Grace
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Gaslamp Ball laments the Padres lack of grace in getting rid of players.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:59 AM | Management | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
No Increase
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The Red Sox announced that they will not raise ticket prices for 2009:

"We have been listening to fans, friends, and family about the challenges they are facing in light of the current adverse economic conditions," said Red Sox president and CEO Larry Lucchino in a press release. "We are also grateful for the unwavering faith and support our fans have shown us year after year and we hope our ownership's decision to hold prices for the upcoming season will in some way help ease the burden on Red Sox Nation."

The last time the Red Sox held ticket prices across the board was 1995 -- the season following the damaging strike that led to the cancellation of the '94 World Series.

I wonder how much getting a cut of ticket reselling plays into this? The Red Sox probably could drop prices, and still make out well as long as fans are willing to buy on one of the approved secondary markets. So the Red Sox get to look like good guys for keeping prices stable in a recession, while still making money due to the high demand for their product.

This looks like a move toward a market based approach to ticket selling, which I believe will benefit baseball in the long run.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:27 AM | Tickets | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
PMR Runs
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Dan Turkenkopf continues to translate PMR stats into runs, taking on third basemen this time.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:54 AM | Probabilistic Model of Range | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Laying Down the Law
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Keith Law names the three writers who voted for Edinson Volquez on the Rookie of the Year ballot. Volquez, of course, was not a rookie.

Doesn't the BBWAA give the voters a list of rookies? Voting for Volquez shows that these writers were derelict in their fact checking, but there are a number of players where it's tough to tell. At least set up a page on their website listing all rookies! (That page might exist. There is a member's only section. If it is there, these three should be kicked out of the club.)

Remember this the next time someone tells you that bloggers can't join the group.

Hat tip, The Big Lead.

Update: In looking at Volquez, I understand why the mistake was made. Keith Law assumes the innings are cumulative. They are not. If you do not break rookie status one year, the innings reset. So Volquez never reached 50 innings in a single season. He did spend too many days on the roster for Texas, however, in one of those seasons, that's why he's not a rookie. These voters still should have checked with Elias.

Update: Keith Law writes, and I retract the above update. The rule as laid out on the MLB web site (which didn't show up in my google search):

A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).

I've seen this rule with seasons left out making me think the numbers only applied to the previous season. I'm sorry for the error.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:45 AM | News Media | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Marte Signs
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It appears the Yankees signed Damaso Marte to a three-year deal worth a total of $12 million. In his brief stint with the Yankees in 2008, Marte's walks were way above his career average, which is very good, but his strikeouts and homers were fine. I'll take the walks as a fluke right now and call this a good signing at a good price.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:37 AM | Transactions | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Ambassador Ripken
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Cal Ripken continues his work for the State Department with a trip to Nicaragua. He'll be blogging for MASN during his visit:

Cal Ripken Jr. will travel to Nicaragua on behalf of the State Department from November 13-18 to bring the Ripken Baseball brand of instruction to over 500 Nicaraguan children and 100 youth coaches. Throughout the trip, Ripken will be blogging on MASNSports.com about his experience. Cal's blog will contain trip updates, stories about the children he meets, reflections about the country's baseball culture and photographs from his travels.

During the five day trip, Ripken will visit the cities of Managua, Leon and Granada. He will be joined by Hall of Famer, former teammate and Nicaraguan native Dennis Martinez. The 23-year Major League veteran and 4-time All Star finished his playing career in 1998 with 245 victories and a 3.70 ERA. The duo will be joined by two instructors from Ripken Baseball.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:19 AM | International | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2008, Leftfielders
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The survery of range continues with leftfielders. The following table shows how the thirty teams fared at the position:

Team Leftfielders PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Royals 4413 368 353.21 0.083 0.080 104.19
Indians 4513 302 290.89 0.067 0.064 103.82
Rays 4264 344 331.81 0.081 0.078 103.67
Nationals 4417 350 339.72 0.079 0.077 103.03
Mets 4335 308 299.09 0.071 0.069 102.98
Diamondbacks 4224 306 298.79 0.072 0.071 102.41
Braves 4383 279 273.49 0.064 0.062 102.02
Brewers 4354 305 299.07 0.070 0.069 101.98
White Sox 4409 293 287.74 0.066 0.065 101.83
Rangers 4667 323 317.21 0.069 0.068 101.83
Orioles 4540 362 355.59 0.080 0.078 101.80
Athletics 4285 333 328.28 0.078 0.077 101.44
Astros 4292 282 278.71 0.066 0.065 101.18
Padres 4419 310 306.42 0.070 0.069 101.17
Cardinals 4597 312 308.84 0.068 0.067 101.02
Red Sox 4232 292 291.37 0.069 0.069 100.22
Dodgers 4265 286 285.62 0.067 0.067 100.13
Tigers 4536 356 355.77 0.078 0.078 100.06
Giants 4232 308 308.26 0.073 0.073 99.92
Yankees 4349 316 316.76 0.073 0.073 99.76
Angels 4374 285 286.29 0.065 0.065 99.55
Cubs 4156 302 304.23 0.073 0.073 99.27
Blue Jays 4215 270 272.75 0.064 0.065 98.99
Pirates 4683 293 299.34 0.063 0.064 97.88
Reds 4299 280 288.41 0.065 0.067 97.08
Rockies 4535 282 290.95 0.062 0.064 96.92
Marlins 4338 289 299.06 0.067 0.069 96.64
Mariners 4512 324 336.18 0.072 0.075 96.38
Twins 4607 306 327.83 0.066 0.071 93.34
Phillies 4396 260 279.09 0.059 0.063 93.16

As in rightfield, there doesn't seem to be a huge correlation between doing well in left and winning. The Royals displayed the best defense at the position, while the Phillies came out at the bottom of the pack.

The list of individuals in left shows that very few teams employ a regular at the position:

Individual Leftfielder PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Skip Schumaker 1085 85 73.79 0.078 0.068 115.20
David DeJesus 1522 136 121.91 0.089 0.080 111.56
Brandon Boggs 1818 131 118.10 0.072 0.065 110.92
Matt Joyce 1249 94 84.77 0.075 0.068 110.89
Ben Francisco 2021 150 138.34 0.074 0.068 108.43
Juan Pierre 1816 125 116.83 0.069 0.064 107.00
Willie Harris 1685 145 135.55 0.086 0.080 106.97
Carl Crawford 2715 231 217.97 0.085 0.080 105.98
Conor Jackson 1944 146 139.06 0.075 0.072 104.99
Gregor Blanco 1547 86 82.08 0.056 0.053 104.78
Jay Payton 1293 132 126.31 0.102 0.098 104.51
Luke Scott 2668 200 196.08 0.075 0.073 102.00
Johnny Damon 1998 155 152.00 0.078 0.076 101.97
Ryan Braun 3919 275 270.93 0.070 0.069 101.50
Wily Mo Pena 1260 99 97.68 0.079 0.078 101.35
Carlos Lee 2840 187 185.42 0.066 0.065 100.85
David Dellucci 1164 75 74.64 0.064 0.064 100.48
Adam Dunn 2942 210 209.06 0.071 0.071 100.45
Alfonso Soriano 2653 186 185.23 0.070 0.070 100.42
Fred Lewis 2622 178 177.57 0.068 0.068 100.24
Carlos Quentin 3465 228 228.42 0.066 0.066 99.81
Jack Cust 1753 129 129.74 0.074 0.074 99.43
Emil Brown 1229 89 89.70 0.072 0.073 99.21
Chase Headley 2159 156 157.62 0.072 0.073 98.97
Matt Holliday 3850 240 243.20 0.062 0.063 98.68
Manny Ramirez 2894 190 193.40 0.066 0.067 98.24
Adam Lind 1712 113 115.52 0.066 0.067 97.81
Xavier Nady 1212 87 89.04 0.072 0.073 97.71
Chris Duncan 1012 73 74.80 0.072 0.074 97.59
Raul Ibanez 4203 303 312.07 0.072 0.074 97.09
Garret Anderson 2113 144 148.53 0.068 0.070 96.95
Jose Guillen 1098 83 85.62 0.076 0.078 96.94
Luis Gonzalez 1547 105 109.32 0.068 0.071 96.05
David Murphy 1317 86 89.62 0.065 0.068 95.96
Josh Willingham 2551 166 173.80 0.065 0.068 95.51
Eric Byrnes 1209 76 80.12 0.063 0.066 94.86
Jason Bay 4215 254 268.19 0.060 0.064 94.71
Marcus Thames 1537 120 127.42 0.078 0.083 94.18
Delmon Young 4209 282 301.19 0.067 0.072 93.63
Pat Burrell 3646 202 223.39 0.055 0.061 90.42

Ryan Braun is the first player on the list on the field in left for over 3000 balls in play. Some of this was caused by injuries (Soriano, Matsui), but for the most part, managers mix and match at the position. The move to left was clearly the right one for Braun.

The other rankings of note belong to Manny Ramirez and Jason Bay. Manny actually did better than Jason in 2008. I'm going to need to break down the two by team to see how much the parks might have made a difference. Bay certainly looked better than Manny watching him play for the Red Sox.

All those late inning substitutions Charlie Manuel made for Pat Burrell looked proper, also. Pat ranks as the worst leftfielder in baseball in 2008, so it's no wonder Charlie wanted a better glove in left when the Phillies had the lead late.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:43 AM | Probabilistic Model of Range | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
November 11, 2008
The Citi Never Sleeps
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Mets-Citi-Blog is a new Mets blog by Brian DePersis. Stopy by and say hi.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:43 PM | Blogs | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Neshek on the Shelf
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Pat Neshek hurt himself throwing last week:

Minnesota Twins reliever Pat Neshek will have ligament replacement surgery on his right elbow and is expected to miss next season.

The right-hander re-injured his elbow last week during a throwing session at the team's facility in Florida. He had an MRI exam Tuesday, which revealed a complete tear of his ulnar collateral ligament. The procedure could take place next week.

After a standout season in 2007 as Minnesota's primary setup man, Neshek sustained a partial tear of the ligament during a game in May. The Twins recommended rest and rehabilitation rather than surgery at the time. Neshek said last month his recovery was on track and he'd be ready for spring training.

That's too bad. I wonder if more players will opt for surgery first after this incident.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:25 PM | Injuries | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Torres Retires
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Pat at Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke? will miss Salomon Torres. The former Pirates pitcher retired today.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:20 PM | Pitchers | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
It's a Good Thing Zevon is Dead
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I drove my daughter back to school this afternoon. As we approached Boston, we switched to Mike FM (they play everything). They play Margaritaville, and when it finishes, I hear a familiar piano introduction. I say to my daughter, "This is a great combination, Margaritaville followed by Werewolves of London." She then tells me I'm listening to a Kid Rock song. So disappointing.

Here's how it should have been played:


Posted by StatsGuru at 07:51 PM | Other | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Cy Lincecum
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Tim Lincecum takes home the BBWAA Cy Young Award in the National League. I'm waiting to see the vote. Although I would have voted for Santana, I can't complain about this choice. See my thoughts from earlier today.

Update: Here's the vote from the BBWAA. Webb came in second, Santana third. The voters split down the middle on which should be in first, but Webb was the consensus second choice. It appears that wins still carry a lot of weight among some sports writers.

There was not a lot of support for Sabathia. Given the amount of ink and pixels devoted to his candidacy during the second half of the season, I expected him to get more support. Instead, he received one first, second and third place vote.

Congratulations to Tim Lincecum on his outstanding season!

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:05 PM | Awards | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Done Deal
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The Nationals will hold a 3:30 PM EST news conference to announce their deal with the Marlins.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:25 PM | Trades | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Death of Score
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Herb Score passed away this morning (Tuesday). He was a young phenom on the mound when a line drive put an end to his greatness:

McDougald, the second batter of the game, reached for a low pitch and lined it back at Score. The ball crashed into his face, breaking his nose, cutting his right eyelid and causing swelling and hemmorhaging of the cheekbone and eyebrow.

Third baseman Al Smith picked up the carom and threw McDougald out at first.

Score was knocked to the ground, bleeding profusely. He was immediately surrounded by teammates and Yankee players.

"I didn't see the ball until it was a foot or two from my face," said Score, who threw with an uninhibited motion in which his body turned his back to the batter. Sometimes he turned so hard he expected that he might eventually get hit on the back.

"I could feel the blood," said the pitcher, who never lost consciousness. "People were all around me. Rocky must have set a record getting in from right field." Colavito was Score's roommate and best friend. They had come up through the minor leagues together.

In his first two years in the majors, Score struck out 508 batters while allowing just 320 hits. He pitched into the 1962 season but without the great results.

At the end of 1963, Score tried announcing and stayed on for 34 seasons with the Indians. I have no doubt his fans in Cleveland will miss him tremendously.

My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:23 AM | Deaths | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Albert Won't Vote for Himself
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MLB FanHouse finds a quote from Albert Pujols on the MVP award. In 2006 Pujols said:

"I see it this way: Someone who doesn't take his team to the playoffs doesn't deserve to win the MVP," Pujols said in Spanish at a news conference organized by the Dominican Republic's sports ministry.

Of course, new facts may have changed Albert's mind.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:05 AM | Awards | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Liking the Trade
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David OhNo at Purple Row explains why he likes the Holliday trade with Oakland.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:31 AM | Trades | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Parting Ways
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The Padres withdrew their offer to Trevor Hoffman. He came as close a one can imagine to being a life-long Padre, having pitched 28 games for the Marlins in 1993 before joining San Diego. At age 40, he posted his highest ERA since 1995, but still strikes out batters at a high rate and keeps his walks low. It was home runs that did him in in 2008. He'll improve some team's bullpen in 2009.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:24 AM | Free Agents | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Waste of Time and Money
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J.C. Bradbury comments on the latest HGH inannity. His conclusion:

I guess I can't blame MLB. It's the cheapest way to fight a public relations problem--that's all this is. And the sad part is that HGH's prohibition signals to potential users that it works, and the drug has many bad side effects. If anything, the war on growth hormone will do more harm than good. As I have suggested before, the best solution is to legalize it.

I agree.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:10 AM | Cheating | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Cy Tuesday
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Tim Lincecum

Tim Lincecum
Photo: Icon SMI

The BBWAA confers a Cy Young Award on a National League pitcher today. For me it comes down to Johan Santana and Tim Lincecum. Santana led the majors in ERA. Lincecum, however, struck out over 2.5 more batters per nine than Johan, while allowing home runs at half the rate.

Both are extremely deserving, although my guess is Tim's better record will sway voters. Let me point out that a big reason for LIncecum's low ERA, however, came from his six starts against the Padres. He posted an 0.62 ERA in those games.



Johan Santana

Johan Santana
Photo: Icon SMI



Santana, on the other hand, pitched the most against the Phillies, five times. His stats against one of the best offensive teams in the league were quite impressive. In other words, the Mets put Johan out for their toughest opponent and he came through.

If I had a ballot, it would be:

  1. Johan Santana
  2. Tim Lincecum
  3. CC Sabathia

Sabathia's short NL season deserves recognition, but it's tough for me to put him ahead of two pitchers who performed extremely well for a whole season in the league. We'll find out the winner at 2 PM EST this afternoon.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:25 AM | Awards | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Faces
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Peter Abraham is off to a press conference about the new technology at Yankee Stadium:

The Yankees will be announcing "new fan-facing technologies to be featured at the new Yankee Stadium."

Wow, new faces for fans. I wonder if that hurts?

I hope they mean interfacing technologies. WiFi throughout the stadium, for example, that not only allows you to surf the web but order food, see replays, etc, all from your cellphone.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:18 AM | Stadiums | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Florida Clears Space
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The Florida Marlins are expected to send Josh Willingham and Scott Olsen to the Washington Nationals today (Tuesday).

The agent for starting pitcher Scott Olsen and outfielder Josh Willingham said Monday they are being traded from the Florida Marlins to the Washington Nationals. Agent Matt Sosnick said a news conference in the Washington area was being planned for Tuesday.

"They've both voiced they're excited for a fresh start. Neither of them has really played for anybody else except the Marlins," Sosnick said in a telephone interview. "They're both trying to process the information."

Willingham is a solid player. He should improve both the OBA and power of the Nationals, although that's not difficult to accomplish given their poor play in 2008. Olson will give the Nationals innings, but it's disconcerting to see his strikeout rate fall for the second year in a row. He struck out 8.3 batter per nine innings in 2006, 5.0 in 2008. Both players qualified for arbitration this season, however, and the Marlins would rather part with good but not great players rather than pay them a lot of money.

These moves, of course, open spots in the outfield and rotation, possibly filled by the two players acquired from Detroit last season, Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin. The Nationals get better, but they're still a long way from contention. Willingham and Olsen are complementary players, not the centerpiece of a championship team.

Update: Does it seem the Marlins have shortened the player life cycle? There are teams, (the Athletics and Braves come to mind) that get as much as they can out of a player during the six years of control, and are then happy to let them walk via free agency and get a draft pick, or trade them just before they walk for prospects. The Marlins are now taking that down to three years. Their philosophy appears to be, pay someone as little as possible for as long as possible, then trade them for prospects. That way, there's always young, cheap talent coming up. Both are predicated on young players being just as good as older veterans. However, the traditional way of handling this (six years) allows teams to capture a player's prime.

In the case of Willingham, the Marlins did just that. He'll be 30 in 2009. So they also managed to get Willingham's prime at an extremely low cost. The Marlins front office really knows how to manage a roster and get a lot for a little.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:54 AM | Trades | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Veterans Day
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On this Veterans Day, I'd like to thank all past and present military readers of Baseball Musings for their service. For those who wear the uniform today, I appreciate the dangerous job you do, and hope that each of you comes home safely.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:37 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
November 10, 2008
Padres Promotions
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The San Diego Padres promoted three front office personnel:

Winfield was Vice President, so I guess being made Executive Vice President/Senior Adviser is a promotion. Paul DePodesta was Special Assistant of Baseball Operations and Executive Vice President sounds a little more official, but from what I can tell, everybody will be basically doing the same thing.

Yes, I've gotten promotions like that in the past. Same job, same pay different title.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:55 PM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2008, Rightfielders
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The Probabilistic Model of Range reports continue with rightfielders. First, the team data:

Team Rightfielders PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Twins 4607 397 374.04 0.086 0.081 106.14
Blue Jays 4215 303 286.97 0.072 0.068 105.58
Giants 4232 392 372.99 0.093 0.088 105.10
Indians 4513 374 358.85 0.083 0.080 104.22
Padres 4419 339 329.60 0.077 0.075 102.85
Phillies 4396 318 310.41 0.072 0.071 102.45
Red Sox 4232 325 318.64 0.077 0.075 102.00
Braves 4383 313 307.02 0.071 0.070 101.95
Rangers 4667 382 375.27 0.082 0.080 101.79
Nationals 4417 353 346.81 0.080 0.079 101.78
Marlins 4338 345 340.25 0.080 0.078 101.40
Cubs 4156 333 329.14 0.080 0.079 101.17
Cardinals 4597 362 360.58 0.079 0.078 100.39
Diamondbacks 4224 269 268.33 0.064 0.064 100.25
Athletics 4285 377 376.50 0.088 0.088 100.13
Mariners 4512 309 310.73 0.068 0.069 99.44
Dodgers 4265 278 279.64 0.065 0.066 99.41
Brewers 4354 316 318.38 0.073 0.073 99.25
Pirates 4683 386 389.32 0.082 0.083 99.15
Royals 4413 334 336.94 0.076 0.076 99.13
Orioles 4540 338 341.58 0.074 0.075 98.95
Mets 4335 356 360.14 0.082 0.083 98.85
Astros 4292 357 365.06 0.083 0.085 97.79
Rays 4264 345 354.99 0.081 0.083 97.19
Reds 4299 327 338.05 0.076 0.079 96.73
Tigers 4536 301 311.48 0.066 0.069 96.64
White Sox 4409 296 308.31 0.067 0.070 96.01
Angels 4374 308 322.64 0.070 0.074 95.46
Yankees 4349 301 316.77 0.069 0.073 95.02
Rockies 4535 249 273.59 0.055 0.060 91.01

It seems rightfielder defense didn't have that much influence on playoff teams. Five of the eight post-season teams finished in the bottom half of the majors. Here's a look at the individuals:

Individual Rightfielder PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Alex Rios 2373 170 156.05 0.072 0.066 108.94
Denard Span 2099 192 176.27 0.091 0.084 108.92
Franklin Gutierrez 2400 224 207.25 0.093 0.086 108.08
Jayson Werth 1964 143 133.49 0.073 0.068 107.12
Randy Winn 3247 309 291.22 0.095 0.090 106.10
Matt Kemp 1391 97 91.48 0.070 0.066 106.04
Endy Chavez 1176 109 103.84 0.093 0.088 104.97
Austin Kearns 2268 187 179.28 0.082 0.079 104.30
Michael Cuddyer 1640 123 118.33 0.075 0.072 103.95
Justin Upton 2531 175 168.66 0.069 0.067 103.76
Kosuke Fukudome 3164 246 240.12 0.078 0.076 102.45
Jeff Francoeur 4016 284 278.05 0.071 0.069 102.14
David Murphy 1279 107 104.84 0.084 0.082 102.06
Ryan Sweeney 1462 136 133.41 0.093 0.091 101.94
Ichiro Suzuki 2491 176 172.83 0.071 0.069 101.83
Mark Teahen 2292 185 181.68 0.081 0.079 101.82
Brian Giles 3845 276 271.51 0.072 0.071 101.65
Jeremy Hermida 3310 266 263.10 0.080 0.079 101.10
J.D. Drew 2658 184 183.15 0.069 0.069 100.47
Gabe Gross 2225 186 185.51 0.084 0.083 100.26
Nick Markakis 4353 329 328.98 0.076 0.076 100.00
Corey Hart 4134 304 305.57 0.074 0.074 99.49
Brad Wilkerson 1428 95 95.58 0.067 0.067 99.39
Ryan Church 2158 180 181.26 0.083 0.084 99.31
Geoff Jenkins 1974 141 142.41 0.071 0.072 99.01
Elijah Dukes 1840 137 138.55 0.074 0.075 98.88
Shin-Soo Choo 1255 89 90.51 0.071 0.072 98.33
Hunter Pence 4112 341 349.04 0.083 0.085 97.70
Emil Brown 1264 112 114.89 0.089 0.091 97.49
Jay Bruce 1777 143 147.07 0.080 0.083 97.23
Jose Guillen 1673 121 124.68 0.072 0.075 97.05
Andre Ethier 2620 171 176.94 0.065 0.068 96.64
Ryan Ludwick 3037 232 240.07 0.076 0.079 96.64
Vladimir Guerrero 2541 180 186.37 0.071 0.073 96.58
Xavier Nady 2497 199 207.14 0.080 0.083 96.07
Magglio Ordonez 3588 220 229.25 0.061 0.064 95.96
Jermaine Dye 3981 266 277.60 0.067 0.070 95.82
Bobby Abreu 3933 271 284.58 0.069 0.072 95.23
Eric Hinske 1001 88 92.73 0.088 0.093 94.90
Ken Griffey Jr. 2257 157 166.16 0.070 0.074 94.48
Gary Matthews Jr. 1013 77 82.08 0.076 0.081 93.81
Brad Hawpe 3645 188 213.67 0.052 0.059 87.99

Denard Span not only improved the Twins leadoff slot, he also did a great job tracking down balls in rightfield. While I'm not surprised to see older players like Ken Griffey and Bobby Abreu near the bottom of the list, I didn't expect to see Gary Matthews, Jr. there.

Ichiro Suzuki also adds some interest. He came out near the top in center, but in the middle in right. It's a bit of a mystery why he does better in center than he does in right.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:05 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Moving Monuments
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Peter Abraham posts pictures of the construction crew packing the retired numbers from monumnet park at Yankee Stadium.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:18 PM | Stadiums | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
New Blood
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Given this list of managerial candidates, the Seattle Mariners appear to be looking for new blood, rather than someone tried and true.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:22 PM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Big Holliday?
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Via Phillies Nation, Sports Illustrated reports the Athletics are close to a deal to land Matt Holliday. That would be an unusual deal for Oakland, trading for an established star. Are they trying to capture the draft picks they would receive when he leaves for free agency? Or, after two losing seasons are they afraid they are going to lose fans if they don't start winning again?

Update: Here's more on the deal:

The A's are working to complete a trade with the Rockies that would bring Matt Holliday to Oakland in exchange for reliever Huston Street, starter Greg Smith and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, major-league sources said Monday.

Smith confirmed Monday that he is flying to Denver for a physical in the next day or two.

"I don't know how official everything is," Smith said. "All I know is I've been called, and I'm flying to Denver probably tomorrow."

He emphasized he does not know any details about other players who might be involved in a deal.

Street is the only sure thing in the deal. Smith was a high strikeout, low walk pitcher in the minors, but a low strikeout, high walk pitcher his rookie season in the majors. Gonzalez put up okay OBA and power numbers in the minors, but very poor number in half a season in the majors. It's better than getting nothing for Holliday, but I really wonder if he wouldn't be worth more at the trading deadline.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:58 PM | Trades | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
Rookie Winners
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Evan Longoria

Evan Longoria
Photo: Icon SMI

Evan Longoria and Geovaney Soto took home Rookie of the Year honors today. Evan won the AL version of the award unanimously, and Soto received 31 of 32 first place votes.

Longoria belted sixty extra-base hits in just three quarters of a season. He also shone defensively as he prevented runs in the field and added runs at the plate, helping the Rays to their first winning season, first division title and first AL pennant. His 2008 seasonal age was just 22, so his ceiling is very high coming off that impressive rookie year. He did a great job justifying the large contract the Rays negotiated with him at the start of the season.

Geovany Soto

Geovany Soto
Photo: Icon SMI

Soto teased Cubs fans with his high OBA in just 18 games in 2007. He lived up to that brief cup of coffee, posting a .364 OBA and a .504 slugging percentage in 2008. He was one of the reasons the Cubs put together one of their best seasons getting on base that I can remember. Like Longoria, Soto also smacked 60 extra-base hits on the season. Soto didn't do a great job of stopping the running game, only stopping 18 of 87 base stealers. The Cubs staff did turn in a low ERA, however, and the catcher should get some credit for that.

It's been fifteen years since a catcher won the prize. Mike Piazza was the last to take home the honor from behind the plate. It should be noted that all the catchers who won the award, starting with Johnny Bench in 1968, went on to excellent careers. In addition to Bench, the award went to Thurman Munson, Carlton Fisk, Benito Santiago and Sandy Alomar. That's good company.

Congratulations to both Evan Longoria and Geovany Soto on their well deserved Rookie of the Year awards!

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:22 PM | Awards | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
More Carriers
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FIOS signs up for the MLB Network and the extra innings package. Very good. At some point, I assume FIOS wil be available in my area, and I'd really like to have choices in my providers. I'l never go back to cable after years of bad quality and bad service, and I'm not crazy about Verizon, but at least competition might keep prices down.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:17 PM | Broadcasts | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Preacher Passes
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Preacher Roe passed away Sunday:

Elwin Charles Roe better known as major league baseball pitcher "Preacher" Roe died Sunday night after a battle with colon cancer.

The Ash Flat, Arkansas, native was originally signed by the St. Louis Cardinals but only played one game as a Redbird, before being traded.

Roe's best known for his time with the Brooklyn Dodgers.

Playing along side Jackie Robinson and Duke Snyder in 1951, Roe was named Pitcher of the Year thanks to a record of 22-3.

He was a late bloomer due to World War II, but put together five excellent season for the Dodgers in the late 1940s and early 1950s.

Roe appears to have given himself the nickname at a young age:

Roe got his nickname at about three years of age when his family lived in Wild Cherry. Although Roe has given various versions of how the nickname came about, his response in an interview in the West Plains Gazette is likely the closest to the truth: "I had an uncle that came back from the first World War who hadn't ever seen me. He said, 'What's your name, young man?' And for some reason I said, 'Preacher.'...My mother said maybe it was because I liked the preacher we had at our church so well."

My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:07 PM | Deaths | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Jackie Robinson Day
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The Baseball Writers announce The Jackie Robinson Award for NL Rookie of the Year this afternoon. Geovany Soto is expected to take home the prize. His batting stats, however, are very close to Joey Votto, and Votto played more. Soto will get a boost from playing catcher. His defensive prowess combined with his good offense made Geovany the top NL catcher in terms of win shares. Votto just can't match the defensive contribution playing first base.

Update: Fixed the last sentence, I meant Votto.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:06 AM | Awards | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
No Cardinals Holliday
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The Cardinals announced they are not pursuing Matt Holliday:

Mozeliak insisted Sunday that discussions involving Colorado Rockies left fielder Matt Holliday have ceased and that "nothing is imminent. That one's not happening -- at all."

Irritated that details of his discussions with Rockies general manager Dan O'Dowd had leaked, Mozeliak did not deny the seriousness of the talks but took exception to momentum assigned them.

"For me to say there were not serious discussions would be inaccurate," Mozeliak said. "But some of the details reported about it were misleading, at the very least. It was never my intention for it to become front-page news."

It appeared the Rockies wanted too many players for Holliday, who may walk at the end of next season to test free agency.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:18 AM | Trades | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
November 09, 2008
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2008, Third Basemen
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The Blue Jays and Cardinals made a challenge trade at the start of the season, swapping Scott Rolen and Troy Glaus. Defensively, at least, the Blue Jays came out on top. Here are the Probabilistic Model of Range team rankings for third base:

Team Third Basemen PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Blue Jays 4215 415 392.25 0.098 0.093 105.80
Mariners 4512 403 384.91 0.089 0.085 104.70
Red Sox 4232 440 423.21 0.104 0.100 103.97
Dodgers 4265 427 411.45 0.100 0.096 103.78
Angels 4374 391 377.04 0.089 0.086 103.70
Braves 4383 404 390.88 0.092 0.089 103.36
Rays 4264 420 406.66 0.098 0.095 103.28
Tigers 4536 471 458.72 0.104 0.101 102.68
Brewers 4354 396 387.21 0.091 0.089 102.27
White Sox 4409 463 455.46 0.105 0.103 101.66
Padres 4419 382 376.01 0.086 0.085 101.59
Astros 4292 408 402.20 0.095 0.094 101.44
Athletics 4285 385 380.25 0.090 0.089 101.25
Pirates 4683 445 442.19 0.095 0.094 100.64
Rockies 4535 412 410.31 0.091 0.090 100.41
Nationals 4417 416 415.43 0.094 0.094 100.14
Yankees 4349 379 378.81 0.087 0.087 100.05
Cubs 4156 341 342.34 0.082 0.082 99.61
Mets 4335 374 376.09 0.086 0.087 99.44
Indians 4513 419 423.48 0.093 0.094 98.94
Marlins 4338 370 375.82 0.085 0.087 98.45
Royals 4413 375 386.63 0.085 0.088 96.99
Phillies 4396 411 425.13 0.093 0.097 96.68
Rangers 4667 372 386.02 0.080 0.083 96.37
Diamondbacks 4224 350 363.76 0.083 0.086 96.22
Twins 4607 382 397.09 0.083 0.086 96.20
Cardinals 4597 416 432.51 0.090 0.094 96.18
Giants 4232 338 356.28 0.080 0.084 94.87
Reds 4299 337 356.45 0.078 0.083 94.54
Orioles 4540 421 446.86 0.093 0.098 94.21

I'm impressed that the Braves rank so high. Chipper Jones isn't known for his defense at third, but he played well this season.

Individual Third Baseman PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Chone Figgins 2787 249 230.03 0.089 0.083 108.25
Andy Marte 1849 185 173.47 0.100 0.094 106.64
Evan Longoria 3059 304 286.97 0.099 0.094 105.94
Ian Stewart 1651 160 151.25 0.097 0.092 105.78
Adrian Beltre 3804 338 321.08 0.089 0.084 105.27
Carlos Guillen 2396 246 233.91 0.103 0.098 105.17
Jack Hannahan 2882 267 254.14 0.093 0.088 105.06
Mike Lowell 2717 279 266.51 0.103 0.098 104.69
Geoff Blum 1773 179 171.00 0.101 0.096 104.68
Blake DeWitt 2152 233 223.28 0.108 0.104 104.35
Joe Crede 2492 251 242.47 0.101 0.097 103.52
Bill Hall 2709 238 229.92 0.088 0.085 103.51
Chipper Jones 2981 274 265.13 0.092 0.089 103.34
Scott Rolen 2935 274 267.64 0.093 0.091 102.37
Kevin Kouzmanoff 4179 368 361.20 0.088 0.086 101.88
Alex Rodriguez 3377 297 291.79 0.088 0.086 101.79
Jose Bautista 2478 243 240.95 0.098 0.097 100.85
Greg Dobbs 1000 92 91.52 0.092 0.092 100.53
Ryan Zimmerman 2786 275 273.75 0.099 0.098 100.46
David Wright 4234 367 365.59 0.087 0.086 100.39
Willy Aybar 1048 108 107.77 0.103 0.103 100.21
Andy LaRoche 1573 152 151.71 0.097 0.096 100.19
Juan Uribe 1424 156 157.08 0.110 0.110 99.31
Aramis Ramirez 3664 290 294.47 0.079 0.080 98.48
Edwin Encarnacion 3673 288 295.33 0.078 0.080 97.52
Mike Lamb 1508 117 120.22 0.078 0.080 97.32
Brian Buscher 1564 141 145.30 0.090 0.093 97.04
Jose Castillo 2560 214 220.73 0.084 0.086 96.95
Garrett Atkins 2528 221 228.04 0.087 0.090 96.91
Mark Reynolds 3759 304 315.66 0.081 0.084 96.31
Jorge Cantu 3264 271 281.48 0.083 0.086 96.28
Alex Gordon 3583 316 329.28 0.088 0.092 95.97
Pedro Feliz 2972 280 292.73 0.094 0.098 95.65
Casey Blake 3318 288 301.47 0.087 0.091 95.53
Ty Wigginton 2013 175 183.48 0.087 0.091 95.38
Troy Glaus 3908 351 368.31 0.090 0.094 95.30
Melvin Mora 3362 320 342.26 0.095 0.102 93.50
Ramon Vazquez 1712 138 149.87 0.081 0.088 92.08
Rich Aurilia 1271 93 106.18 0.073 0.084 87.59

Adrian Beltre comes through here as an interesting player. With the run up in salaries the last few seasons, his $12 million contract for 2009 is pretty good. It's the same amount Mike Lowell will make next season. The two are also very close in terms of win shares. If a team is looking to upgrade their defense at third base, Beltre is a great pickup. The Mariners may be looking to move his contract. If the surgery he underwent in September helps with his hitting, he could be a very good pickup.

Evan Longoria certainly was a big part of the Rays defensive improvement. Unexpected major leaguers Blake DeWitt and Jack Hannahan also provided much needed defense. In addition, Andy Marte hasn't hit but he did field the position well in limited playing time.

At the other end of the spectrum, Casey Blake appears to be as overrated defensively as offensively. Alex Gordon and Mark Reynolds look like they won't have long careers at the position, given their poor play at a young age.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:53 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Charity Auction
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Tom Kackley is auctioning off Yankees memorabilia> to raise money for the Domestic Violence Project. Tom lost his sister to domestic violence, and over the last few years he's used his baseball connections to raise money in memory of his sister. Stop by and check out the items for sale.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:18 PM | Charity | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Black and White and Green all Over?
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Can the Boston Red Sox provide a cash infustion to the New York Times?

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:50 PM | News Media | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Praise for the Uptons
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It appears the Upton brothers make a good impression:

You begin to tire of it, really, all the marketing people whispering in your ear about how accommodating B.J. and Justin Upton are.

"They always show up on time."

"I'm not used to athletes being this polite."

"Not one complaint while they've been here. Not one."

It's sad that it's special when people do the right thing. Shouldn't punctuality and politeness be the norm? I sometimes get complimented when someone finds out I've been married for a long time, but that's normal for me. My parents and all their brothers and sisters were or are married forever. It shouldn't be special to be married a long time, or polite and helpful to people, or just plain civil. I'm glad the Uptons act this way, but I also hope we get to the day when that's not news.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:42 PM | Players | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Watching Uggla
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Mike Emeigh took me up on my offer to watch the best and worst plays of a second baseman. I sent Mike the highest probability plays Dan Uggla didn't make, and the lowest probability plays Uggla did turn into outs. Here's his report:

Of Uggla's eight low-probability plays made, four of them were plays on which the Marlins had an infield shift on - three by Ryan Howard, one by Carlos Delgado - and in each case the ball was hit directly to where Uggla was playing; it's very likely that any 2B would have made those plays in that position, and I don't know thow much credit you want to give Uggla for being there. Two more plays - the 8/15 play against Alfonso Soriano and the 7/10 play against James Loney - also appear to be primarily due to positioning. On the former, Uggla was playing Soriano fairly far up the middle and had a good angle on his popup; on the latter, Uggla was pulled over fairly close to 1B. The other two plays were good, far-ranging plays - Uggla going far to his left to throw out Brian Schneider on 5/26, and ranging well to the left side of 2B in shallow center to grab a Mark Reynolds flare on 5/20 - although on the latter positioning also played a role, as Uggla was playing Reynolds up the middle and the CF was playing fairly deep. It was a good play, but one that a good CF or SS might have been able to make, also.

The six high-probability plays that Uggla should have made but didn't:

  • 6/17: routing GB by Ichiro, just booted it
  • 8/6: hard-hit "at 'em" GB by Jimmy Rollins, basically one of those you either catch or don't catch
  • 5/30: GB by Pedro Feliz that took a bad hop as it got to Uggla; he barehanded it across his body, which threw off his timing
  • 4/18: GB by Ryan Zimmerman toward the middle; Uggla made the play but didn't get enough on the throw, which Mike Jacobs should have scooped anyway
  • 9/21: With Jamie Moyer on 1B, Jimmy Rollins hit a slow grounder to the right side. Uggla stopped to avoid a collision with Moyer, which made him have to hurry the play when he did get to the ball. Had he kept coming Moyer would likely have collided with him, which would have been interference on Moyer
  • 7/28: Endy Chavez hit a GB which took a funky hop as it got to Uggla, who booted it

Mike brings up something I've discussed before. Range is probably a poor word for what we're studying here. Range isn't just the ability to move a long distance to field a ball. It also includes the ability to position yourself (or have someone position you) so you don't need to move very far. Uggla (and Utley) put themselves into position to field low probability balls without having too many high probability outs sneak through their vacated normal positions. Someday, we'll measure range directly.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:06 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Scouting NaCl
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Jarrod Saltalamacchia idolizes Jason Varitek, and would love to catch with him in Boston. A scout analyzes the two:

Saltalamacchia is far from Varitek defensively, but a veteran scout who has watched both of them said, "They are very similar. Jason wasn't a finished product at 23 years old, either. It took a lot of work to get him where he is right now.

"Jason just made the decision that 'I'm going to pull this off' and he went about it by putting his nose in the sand and making it happen. Salty has a chance to get there, too. I think the difference might be that Salty is going to hit and hit for power. He's a big kid and he looks like he could be an offensive force."

When Saltalamacchia was apprised of those comments, he said, "Oh my God, that's so amazing. I just want to get my catching abilities where Jason is."

Reaching that goal would certainly make Saltalamacchia a very valuable free agent when his time comes.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:38 AM | Trades | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
November 08, 2008
Probabilistic Model of Range, Centerfielders, 2008
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The third position presented in this year's Probabilistic Model of Range study belongs to centerfielders. First, the overall team numbers:

Team Centerfielders PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Mets 4335 435 422.51 0.100 0.097 102.96
Rays 4264 451 438.07 0.106 0.103 102.95
Phillies 4396 389 378.54 0.088 0.086 102.76
Twins 4607 488 475.27 0.106 0.103 102.68
Athletics 4285 444 433.07 0.104 0.101 102.52
Reds 4299 413 404.02 0.096 0.094 102.22
Angels 4374 429 421.94 0.098 0.096 101.67
Brewers 4354 406 400.20 0.093 0.092 101.45
Astros 4292 427 420.91 0.099 0.098 101.45
Mariners 4512 435 429.86 0.096 0.095 101.19
Rockies 4535 405 400.30 0.089 0.088 101.17
Yankees 4349 407 402.92 0.094 0.093 101.01
Diamondbacks 4224 402 398.46 0.095 0.094 100.89
Dodgers 4265 377 374.62 0.088 0.088 100.64
Red Sox 4232 406 404.43 0.096 0.096 100.39
Marlins 4338 438 436.46 0.101 0.101 100.35
Braves 4383 360 361.20 0.082 0.082 99.67
Pirates 4683 433 434.85 0.092 0.093 99.58
Indians 4513 412 414.22 0.091 0.092 99.46
Orioles 4540 440 442.64 0.097 0.097 99.40
Padres 4419 453 456.46 0.103 0.103 99.24
Rangers 4667 451 456.50 0.097 0.098 98.79
Cubs 4156 391 396.42 0.094 0.095 98.63
Giants 4232 454 460.66 0.107 0.109 98.55
White Sox 4409 362 369.04 0.082 0.084 98.09
Blue Jays 4215 381 389.50 0.090 0.092 97.82
Tigers 4536 450 460.98 0.099 0.102 97.62
Nationals 4417 426 439.80 0.096 0.100 96.86
Royals 4413 417 436.29 0.094 0.099 95.58
Cardinals 4597 388 409.47 0.084 0.089 94.76

It was a good year for the Mets and the Rays. I find it interesting that the Rangers rank so low, as a number of people noted Josh Hamilton's defense this season. The next table will show where he ranks as an individual:

Individual Centerfielders PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Rajai Davis 1483 153 142.55 0.103 0.096 107.33
Ichiro Suzuki 1887 195 186.20 0.103 0.099 104.72
B.J. Upton 3642 378 362.20 0.104 0.099 104.36
Carlos Gonzalez 1585 176 169.00 0.111 0.107 104.14
Carlos Gomez 3988 437 422.56 0.110 0.106 103.42
Carlos Beltran 4171 418 407.47 0.100 0.098 102.58
Marlon Byrd 1372 149 145.28 0.109 0.106 102.56
Gregor Blanco 1495 128 124.87 0.086 0.084 102.51
Brian Anderson 1295 102 99.83 0.079 0.077 102.17
Willy Taveras 3124 282 276.52 0.090 0.089 101.98
Jacoby Ellsbury 1660 171 168.01 0.103 0.101 101.78
Torii Hunter 3587 350 344.29 0.098 0.096 101.66
Chris Young 4091 393 387.93 0.096 0.095 101.31
Andruw Jones 1481 133 131.63 0.090 0.089 101.04
Shane Victorino 3619 314 310.92 0.087 0.086 100.99
Michael Bourn 3051 291 289.00 0.095 0.095 100.69
Melky Cabrera 2919 272 270.56 0.093 0.093 100.53
Corey Patterson 2388 242 241.55 0.101 0.101 100.19
Alfredo Amezaga 1451 146 145.75 0.101 0.100 100.17
Grady Sizemore 4199 382 382.73 0.091 0.091 99.81
Adam Jones 3487 337 337.64 0.097 0.097 99.81
Matt Kemp 2425 209 209.73 0.086 0.086 99.65
Coco Crisp 2534 234 235.17 0.092 0.093 99.50
Jeremy Reed 1439 132 132.92 0.092 0.092 99.31
Cody Ross 2561 254 255.96 0.099 0.100 99.24
Aaron Rowand 3750 411 414.28 0.110 0.110 99.21
Mike Cameron 3174 293 295.47 0.092 0.093 99.16
Jim Edmonds 2420 242 244.43 0.100 0.101 99.00
Alex Rios 1531 156 158.34 0.102 0.103 98.52
Jody Gerut 1816 189 191.84 0.104 0.106 98.52
Mark Kotsay 2145 173 176.54 0.081 0.082 98.00
Reed Johnson 1618 144 147.07 0.089 0.091 97.91
Nate McLouth 4228 380 388.88 0.090 0.092 97.72
Scott Hairston 1152 114 116.69 0.099 0.101 97.69
Josh Hamilton 2977 268 274.44 0.090 0.092 97.65
Vernon Wells 2582 217 222.72 0.084 0.086 97.43
Joey Gathright 2242 197 202.50 0.088 0.090 97.28
Curtis Granderson 3740 366 379.16 0.098 0.101 96.53
Nick Swisher 1650 138 144.00 0.084 0.087 95.84
Lastings Milledge 3632 348 365.21 0.096 0.101 95.29
Rick Ankiel 2433 213 224.60 0.088 0.092 94.83
Skip Schumaker 1760 136 143.45 0.077 0.082 94.81
Ryan Sweeney 1053 95 102.85 0.090 0.098 92.37
David DeJesus 1524 151 163.83 0.099 0.108 92.17

It was a very good year to be a centerfielder named Carlos. B.J. Upton, however, gets the nod as the best everyday DF. Looking at individuals, it becomes apparent why the Cardinals rated so poorly at the position. Skip Shumaker and Rick Ankiel were equally below average.

As for Josh Hamilton, he ranks 35th out of 44 fielders in the study. He's going to be worth exploring in more detail, since I suspect people who watch him give him better marks.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:35 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
Back to the Bench
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The Brewers hire Willie Randolph as their bench coach. It's not managing, but it's close. Randolph may turn out to a person who is better off coaching than managing. Given how things went down with the Mets, he might not have the people skills for the top job.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:27 PM | Management | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Ball Hogs
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Before I get to the centerfielders, a question arises sometimes that I'd like to address. I'm sometimes asked when a fielder does well, especially an outfielder on fly balls, what about ball hogs? So for outfielders, I'd like to take a look at where balls get hogged, and who does the hogging.

The first graph shows the percentage of plays made on each Probabilistic Model of Range vector, each vector representing about five degrees. Data is all outs made by major league outfielders in 2008. Leftfield is represented by low number vectors, rightfield by high number vectors. Straight-away centerfield is vector 36 (click for a larger image).

BallHogPercentage.jpg

There are two things to notice from this graph. The first is that there are very few vectors in which ball hogging might occur. There are only six, in fact. Second, centerfielder hog more balls from leftfielder than they do from rightfielders. This makes some sense, since most hitters are right-handed, meaning centerfielders are going to be shaded toward left most of the time.

The other thing I want to point out is that balls are hogged in places where fewer outs get recorded (click for a larger image):

PlaysMadeOF.jpg

So, it's tough for an outfielder to get a huge boost by ball hogging. They don't stray that far into another's territory, and when they do there are fewer outs to be gathered in anyway.

This also gives us a tool to use to look at individual teams if a question of ball hogging comes up.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:05 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Shortstop Runs
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Beyond the Boxscore translates PMR for shortstops into runs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:38 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Butterfly Effect
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Bill Lee rants on how the Red Sox losing the 1975 World Series led to the Manny Ramirez trade:

If the team had won the World Series in 1975, Lee said, he would have been mayor.

"And if I had been mayor, I would have banned private vehicles in downtown Boston," Lee said. "We would have all been walking, we'd all be cross-country skiing and we'd all be in better shape. And if we were all in better shape, there'd be no parking and (Boston parking czar Frank) McCourt would never have been able to buy the Dodgers and Manny would never have gone to LA."

I do agree that everyone should walk in downtown Boston.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:12 AM | Trades | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Rewarding Loyalty
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After 17 seasons as the bullpen coach, Bill Castro takes over as the Brewers pitching coach. Why now? In all the previous times the team had a chance to make Castro the pitching coach, why didn't they? There was a rumor that Rick Peterson would be up for the job, but obviously the team decided to stay in house. It's nice to see Castro's loyalty to the team finally rewarded.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:52 AM | Management | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
November 07, 2008
Minor Team
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Al's Ramblings puts together a team of minor league free agents. It's not a great team, but it shows what clubs can pick up off the scrap heap.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:26 PM | Free Agents | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Teix Nat?
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It looks like the Washington Nationals are interested in Mark Teixeira. If they sign him they might double their run production! :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:18 PM | Free Agents | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Giles Stays a Padre
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The Padres pick up the option on Brian Giles. Paul DePodesta explains why.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:29 PM | Transactions | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Yankees Tidbits
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Peter Abraham reports from Joe Torre's charity event:

Joe Girardi revealed for the first time that Mike Mussina told him after the season that he planned to retire. He has not heard from Moose since.

There's also news on Andy Pettitte's plans and the rehabbing shoulders of Rivera and Posada.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:25 PM | Team Evaluation | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Hawkins Stays an Astro
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LaTroy Hawkins signed a one-year contract with the Houston Astros. Hawkins pitched 21 outstanding innings for the Astros with lots of strikeouts and few walks. He'll try to do that over a full season for Houston.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:01 PM | Free Agents | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Thoughts on Free Agents
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Jon Weisman offers his thoughts on the Dodgers signing Manny Ramirez, CC Sabathia or doing nothing spectacular.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:35 AM | Free Agents | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Peavy Plays GM
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Jake Peavy may block a trade to the Braves, because the trade weakens Atlanta!

"Escobar's a pretty good player," Axelrod said. "To be honest, Jake and I have said, 'If that kind of trade gets made, who plays short for them?'"

...

"One of the things we will want to look at some point is, 'Who are you giving up? How much are you weakening your team to make this deal?'" Axelrod said. "If Team X trades three starting pitchers and a starting shortstop to get Jake Peavy, that lessens their chance of being a successful team."

I don't remember a player using his no-trade in this way. Sure, they may prevent a deal to a non-competitive team, but I don't remember one judging the competitiveness of the team based on who the acquiring team traded away.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:01 AM | Trades | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
No Team for Cuban
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Bleed Cubbie Blue notes an article reporting MLB will block Mark Cuban from owning the Cubs.

Global financial crisis or not, baseball's old guard plans to stand firm against letting Cuban into the club. ''There's no way Bud and the owners are going to let that happen,'' a Major League Baseball source said this week. ''Zero chance.''

That's too bad. Cuban likes to talk, and Selig doesn't like owners to express opinions about the game unless Bud cleared them. I was hoping Mark would get a team, just so we could hear dissenting views on Bud's policies from some owner. I'm not surprised the commissioner won't let that happen.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:52 AM | Owners | Comments (15) | TrackBack (0)
Improving Fenway
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Fenway Park undergoes another round of improvements. Here's my favorite:

The wooden grandstand seats that date back to 1934 are being refurbished and widened to league-mandated dimensions of at least 18 inches.

I often sat in the grandstand, and there was no elbow room. It looks like that will change a little.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:48 AM | Stadiums | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
November 06, 2008
Insulting Offer
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I can't believe the Dodgers offered Manny Ramirez just $45 million for two years. I could see offering that average salary for five years, but for that short a term, I would have thought the Dodgers would bring the average a lot closer to A-Rod's $27.5 million. Hat tip to The Big Lead, which thinks the Dodgers may be bidding against themselves.

One problem with Manny sticking with the Dodgers is that he can't really generate that much more revenue for them. They already draw very good crowds. The team that should go overboard to sign Ramirez is the Tampa Bay Rays. Think about it. The Red Sox and Yankees are going to reload, making the AL East that much tougher to win. The Rays should get a boost in attendance with their AL championship, but imagine putting Manny in leftfield. They might draw 20,000 more per game! And if the Rays manage to net just $40 per person coming into the park, 20,000 * 81 * 40 is about $64 million in increased revenue. They could offer Manny $60 million over two years and still make a tidy profit. On top of that, Manny plays close to home and gets to torment the Red Sox. Everyone wins!

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:39 PM | Free Agents | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0)
DePodesta Tidbit
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Paul DePodesta writes a short post about the GM meetings, including this teaser:

We had many discussions over the course of the past four days at the GM's meetings, some of which have been productive and even unexpected. At this point, however, there is nothing to report.

Unexpected. Maybe some team that's under the radar is looking to acquire Peavy. Maybe another team offered a very creative deal that helps both sides now. We'll see if anything unexpected some out of San Diego soon.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:13 PM | Management | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2008, Second Basemen
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The following table shows how team second basemen ranked according to the Probabilistic Model of Range:

Team Second Basemen PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Marlins 4338 527 500.98 0.121 0.115 105.19
Phillies 4396 528 504.35 0.120 0.115 104.69
Reds 4299 498 478.19 0.116 0.111 104.14
Diamondbacks 4224 561 539.98 0.133 0.128 103.89
Cubs 4156 500 487.52 0.120 0.117 102.56
Rockies 4535 564 552.06 0.124 0.122 102.16
Tigers 4536 505 495.02 0.111 0.109 102.02
Angels 4374 545 535.72 0.125 0.122 101.73
Indians 4513 554 545.22 0.123 0.121 101.61
Twins 4607 513 505.30 0.111 0.110 101.52
Athletics 4285 518 510.99 0.121 0.119 101.37
Blue Jays 4215 532 525.31 0.126 0.125 101.27
Brewers 4354 508 503.13 0.117 0.116 100.97
White Sox 4409 535 533.38 0.121 0.121 100.30
Orioles 4540 498 498.38 0.110 0.110 99.92
Cardinals 4597 517 517.91 0.112 0.113 99.82
Yankees 4349 556 557.46 0.128 0.128 99.74
Red Sox 4232 505 508.07 0.119 0.120 99.40
Astros 4292 464 467.09 0.108 0.109 99.34
Mariners 4512 602 608.69 0.133 0.135 98.90
Rangers 4667 539 546.88 0.115 0.117 98.56
Royals 4413 547 555.11 0.124 0.126 98.54
Nationals 4417 464 471.01 0.105 0.107 98.51
Braves 4383 526 534.13 0.120 0.122 98.48
Pirates 4683 466 478.32 0.100 0.102 97.43
Mets 4335 476 492.58 0.110 0.114 96.63
Giants 4232 417 432.81 0.099 0.102 96.35
Rays 4264 472 490.56 0.111 0.115 96.22
Padres 4419 475 499.74 0.107 0.113 95.05
Dodgers 4265 484 514.65 0.113 0.121 94.04

The Marlins number one at second base? That certainly flies in the face of Dan Uggla's performance in the All-Star Game. It's not that surprising, however, to see the Dodgers with the aging Jeff Kent coming in last. On to the individual players:

Individual Second Baseman PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Adam Kennedy 2036 247 226.55 0.121 0.111 109.03
Mike Fontenot 1448 175 160.82 0.121 0.111 108.82
Emilio Bonifacio 1008 100 93.17 0.099 0.092 107.33
Chase Utley 4231 513 485.09 0.121 0.115 105.75
Marco Scutaro 1077 144 136.95 0.134 0.127 105.15
Placido Polanco 3806 424 405.94 0.111 0.107 104.45
Dan Uggla 3841 465 445.31 0.121 0.116 104.42
Howie Kendrick 2341 308 295.94 0.132 0.126 104.07
Joe Inglett 1554 205 197.44 0.132 0.127 103.83
Asdrubal Cabrera 2446 316 304.98 0.129 0.125 103.61
Juan Uribe 1112 138 133.57 0.124 0.120 103.32
Brandon Phillips 3704 429 416.27 0.116 0.112 103.06
Clint Barmes 1519 183 177.61 0.120 0.117 103.03
Mark Ellis 3006 373 365.23 0.124 0.122 102.13
Alexi Casilla 2611 288 282.01 0.110 0.108 102.12
Orlando Hudson 2668 346 339.70 0.130 0.127 101.86
Kaz Matsui 2485 267 265.25 0.107 0.107 100.66
Rickie Weeks 3150 355 353.07 0.113 0.112 100.55
Dustin Pedroia 4003 479 477.12 0.120 0.119 100.39
Brian Roberts 4195 471 469.83 0.112 0.112 100.25
Robinson Cano 4152 531 530.64 0.128 0.128 100.07
Sean Rodriguez 1229 149 148.91 0.121 0.121 100.06
Mark Loretta 1110 129 128.96 0.116 0.116 100.03
Jose Lopez 3861 531 533.54 0.138 0.138 99.52
Alexei Ramirez 3081 371 373.04 0.120 0.121 99.45
Luis Castillo 2054 219 220.31 0.107 0.107 99.41
Mark Grudzielanek 2175 280 282.08 0.129 0.130 99.26
Tadahito Iguchi 1962 217 218.94 0.111 0.112 99.12
Jamey Carroll 1800 206 207.94 0.114 0.116 99.07
Ian Kinsler 3462 413 417.34 0.119 0.121 98.96
Kelly Johnson 3631 441 448.84 0.121 0.124 98.25
Mark DeRosa 1930 232 236.45 0.120 0.123 98.12
Freddy Sanchez 3688 368 378.01 0.100 0.102 97.35
Eugenio Velez 1355 128 133.20 0.094 0.098 96.09
Jeff Baker 1174 139 144.85 0.118 0.123 95.96
Felipe Lopez 2435 266 279.15 0.109 0.115 95.29
Aaron Hill 1375 164 172.51 0.119 0.125 95.07
Akinori Iwamura 3916 435 457.88 0.111 0.117 95.00
Aaron Miles 1551 171 182.78 0.110 0.118 93.55
Alberto Callaspo 1128 128 137.62 0.113 0.122 93.01
Ray Durham 2160 212 228.31 0.098 0.106 92.86
Edgar Gonzalez 1701 191 205.90 0.112 0.121 92.76
Brendan Harris 1016 101 109.08 0.099 0.107 92.59
Damion Easley 1607 170 186.57 0.106 0.116 91.12
Jeff Kent 2630 290 318.37 0.110 0.121 91.09

One thing I need to look at more closely is why Dan Uggla does so well. In the previous post on shortstops, a couple of commenters wanted more proof that this system actually works. I was a bit suprised by Akinori Iwamura rating so low, so I thought I would look at his poorest plays to see if they made sense. Of his four worst plays, all with a probablility of .889 or higher of being turned, two were errors hit right at him. One was a grounder to his right when he was playing too far left (poor positioning) and one was just bad judgement on a double play ball.

To compare, I looked at Utley's best play, since he was the best regular at the position. All three of his best plays were balls to the right of first base that got by Howard off the bats of left handers. In each case, Utley ranged into the outfield to field the ball and throw out the batter at first, twice I believe to the pitcher covering. He made those plays because Howard couldn't, but he was positioned so well he was in the right place to cover for Ryan.

The other thing I noticed is that toughest plays Utley made were much tougher than the best plays Iwamura executed. At the other end, easiest balls in play that Iwamura failed to turn into outs were much easier than Utley's worse plays.

If anyone would like to review video on MLB.com for a particular player, I'll be happy to send you the dates and innings of their best and worst plays.

In case you want to check my work, Iwamura's worst plays were on 9/7, 3rd inning, 8/20, 9th inning, 4/25, 9th inning, 7/30, 5th inning. Utley's best plays were on 7/23, 1st inning, 7/1, 1st inning and 8/3, 3rd inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:21 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
More Gloves, More Gold
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The American Gold Glove awards winners are out. Why do the voters insist on giving the award to old pitchers?

Correction: I meant voters, not reporters.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:06 PM | Awards | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Pedroia Leaks
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Although the award won't officially be announced until later this afternoon, Dustin Pedroia told WEEI that he won the American League Gold Glove at second base.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:38 PM | Awards | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
PMR Runs
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Dan Turkenkopf at Beyond the Boxscore is translating PMR into runs so I don't need to. Thanks, Dan.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:06 AM | Probabilistic Model of Range | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Three Way Rumor
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Tim Brown floats this rumor about a three-way trade between the Yankees, Mariners and Rockies:

One source mentioned a potential three-way deal that would send outfielder Hideki Matsui from the New York Yankees to the Seattle Mariners for a pitching prospect, perhaps Ryan Rowland-Smith. The Yankees would package the prospect with second baseman Robinson Cano and another young player to the Rockies for Holliday.

Bleeding Blue and Teal feels this deal should not be sealed.

Wow, if this has any truth I will be insanely angry. There is no way that the most we can get for Rowland-Smith is Matsui, who is an aging, below average defensive outfielder. Sure, his bat is definitely a positive, but in two of the past three seasons he's been hurt, and been limited to less than 100 games.

On the other hand, if I'm the Yankees with a need for pitching, I'm stopping at Matsui for Rowland-Smith. He's a pretty good pitcher, and I really like his minor league strikeout and walk numbers. With the Yankees poor defense, they need pitchers who keep the ball out of play.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:05 AM | Trades | Comments (14) | TrackBack (0)
Modeling the Cardinals
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Joe Strauss gives us an idea of how the Cardinals think about developing their roster:

For several hours, Mozeliak, assistant general manager John Abbamondi and vice president of scouting and player development Jeff Luhnow briefed manager Tony La Russa, who traveled back and forth from his Bay Area home. The presentation included numerous possibilities listing players from within the organization as well as free-agent and trade targets.

Some of the models did not include Ludwick or Ankiel.

"We have a good core of outfielders. But we also have some needs," La Russa said. "I think they're doing it exactly right. You try to look at your priorities and how you would fill them. You don't want to make any deal ... but with free agency you have to get involved with money and years. There's no free lunch."

Wary of perceptions that he is shopping Ludwick and Ankiel, Mozeliak added, "Not to be coy, but it's probably one of 100 variables that are factoring into this."

It looks like communications in the Cardinals hierarchy are very open and complete. This led to them putting a surprisingly good team on the field this year. We'll see if they can do it again in 2009.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:27 AM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Weblog Nominations
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While we await the rest of the 2008 baseball awards, nominations are being accepted for the 2008 Weblog Awards. You can nominate your favorite sports blogs here.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:15 AM | Awards | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
November 05, 2008
Bidding Starts High
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Ned Colletti says he made Manny Ramirez an offer. The Dodgers would make him the second highest paid player behind A-Rod. We don't know the length or actual dollar amount, but if this is where the bidding starts, we might see Manny make a higher average salary than Rodriguez over a shorter period of time.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:17 PM | Free Agents | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2008, Shortstops
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The first position to examine is the most important of the fielders working behind the pitcher, the shortstop. As a reference, the first table looks at the position on a team-wide basis:

Team Shortstop PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Brewers 4354 551 526.00 0.127 0.121 104.75
Giants 4232 492 469.81 0.116 0.111 104.72
Marlins 4338 517 501.00 0.119 0.115 103.19
Angels 4374 524 510.64 0.120 0.117 102.62
Cardinals 4597 580 566.37 0.126 0.123 102.41
Red Sox 4232 480 472.55 0.113 0.112 101.58
Phillies 4396 557 551.85 0.127 0.126 100.93
Braves 4383 566 561.40 0.129 0.128 100.82
Diamondbacks 4224 469 465.74 0.111 0.110 100.70
Cubs 4156 498 495.33 0.120 0.119 100.54
Astros 4292 500 497.32 0.116 0.116 100.54
Athletics 4285 477 474.54 0.111 0.111 100.52
Rangers 4667 538 536.31 0.115 0.115 100.31
Dodgers 4265 546 544.65 0.128 0.128 100.25
Indians 4513 542 540.73 0.120 0.120 100.23
White Sox 4409 548 546.97 0.124 0.124 100.19
Royals 4413 508 507.30 0.115 0.115 100.14
Rays 4264 490 490.56 0.115 0.115 99.89
Orioles 4540 537 539.06 0.118 0.119 99.62
Rockies 4535 587 589.61 0.129 0.130 99.56
Pirates 4683 577 580.37 0.123 0.124 99.42
Blue Jays 4215 476 479.71 0.113 0.114 99.23
Twins 4607 578 584.70 0.125 0.127 98.85
Yankees 4349 491 499.00 0.113 0.115 98.40
Nationals 4417 526 538.02 0.119 0.122 97.76
Mariners 4512 480 493.64 0.106 0.109 97.24
Padres 4419 520 536.39 0.118 0.121 96.94
Reds 4299 468 485.83 0.109 0.113 96.33
Tigers 4536 519 544.40 0.114 0.120 95.33
Mets 4335 498 524.64 0.115 0.121 94.92

Notice the Mets are last. While recent articles mention Jeter as the worst fielder in the majors, in 2008 he wasn't the worst shortstop in New York:

Individual Shortstop PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Marco Scutaro 1352 173 157.04 0.128 0.116 110.16
Omar Vizquel 1863 210 193.60 0.113 0.104 108.47
Mike Aviles 2277 271 252.42 0.119 0.111 107.36
Maicer Izturis 1307 151 144.80 0.116 0.111 104.28
Jed Lowrie 1142 123 118.01 0.108 0.103 104.23
J.J. Hardy 3804 477 460.72 0.125 0.121 103.53
Erick Aybar 2437 305 295.72 0.125 0.121 103.14
Alex Cora 1137 140 135.75 0.123 0.119 103.13
Cesar Izturis 3136 408 396.19 0.130 0.126 102.98
Jack Wilson 2231 285 276.88 0.128 0.124 102.93
Bobby Crosby 3740 423 411.71 0.113 0.110 102.74
Jason Bartlett 3208 380 372.71 0.118 0.116 101.96
Hanley Ramirez 3986 472 462.98 0.118 0.116 101.95
Juan Castro 1331 153 150.32 0.115 0.113 101.78
Jimmy Rollins 3537 451 443.43 0.128 0.125 101.71
Luis Rodriguez 1191 143 140.93 0.120 0.118 101.47
Yunel Escobar 3344 440 434.04 0.132 0.130 101.37
Nick Punto 1646 227 224.05 0.138 0.136 101.32
Orlando Cabrera 4218 527 521.06 0.125 0.124 101.14
Adam Everett 1183 156 154.33 0.132 0.130 101.08
Miguel Tejada 4062 472 469.63 0.116 0.116 100.50
Jhonny Peralta 3963 469 467.52 0.118 0.118 100.32
Michael Young 4165 489 487.98 0.117 0.117 100.21
Ryan Theriot 3615 425 424.27 0.118 0.117 100.17
Julio Lugo 1947 216 217.95 0.111 0.112 99.11
Angel Berroa 1730 225 227.09 0.130 0.131 99.08
Derek Jeter 3815 429 433.24 0.112 0.114 99.02
Stephen Drew 3820 422 429.34 0.110 0.112 98.29
Cristian Guzman 3640 441 449.15 0.121 0.123 98.19
John McDonald 1387 150 154.82 0.108 0.112 96.89
Yuniesky Betancourt 4173 446 460.45 0.107 0.110 96.86
Troy Tulowitzki 2730 354 365.56 0.130 0.134 96.84
Edgar Renteria 3696 428 449.40 0.116 0.122 95.24
Jose Reyes 4196 480 504.15 0.114 0.120 95.21
Khalil Greene 2841 327 345.54 0.115 0.122 94.64
Tony F Pena 1808 199 211.52 0.110 0.117 94.08
Brendan Harris 1480 159 170.68 0.107 0.115 93.16
Jeff Keppinger 2636 274 296.50 0.104 0.112 92.41
David Eckstein 1445 149 163.53 0.103 0.113 91.11

Jose Reyes converted 24 fewer balls into outs than expected while Jeter was just down four. It was actually one of Derek's better years.

Omar Vizquel remains impressive at an advanced age. He didn't play a whole season, so he didn't get a chance to wear down, but if any team is looking for a great late inning defensive replacement, Omar is it.

Mike Aviles came up as a great find for the Royals in terms of his batting, but he also performed well with the glove.

Troy Tulowitzki went from first to almost worst in 2008. His injuries seemed to limit his range.

Jimmy Rollins won the Gold Glove today, but J.J. Hardy deserved it based on this data.

Feel free to comment and criticize.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:06 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | Comments (18) | TrackBack (0)
Penny Wise
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The Dodgers declined the option on Brad Penny, saving $6.75 million dollars. With Lowe likely gone as well, this is going to be a very different Dodgers rotation in 2009.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:54 PM | Free Agents | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Women in Baseball
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We've Got Heart brings us the latest in their Women in Baseball series. This week they profile Cheryl Zimmerman, mother of Washington third baseman Ryan Zimmerman. Cheryl suffers from MS.

Sean Kirst gets Rachel Robinson's reaction to the Obama victory.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:20 PM | Players | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Gold Gloves
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The National League Gold Glove awards came out today. I'll be publishing PMR data for fielders over the next week so you can see how they compare.

Remember, the voting system for Gold Gloves is very poor, so that's mostly why they end up with poor results. All they need to do is give the voters a list of players with 120 games at each position, and ask them to rank the top three.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:10 PM | Awards | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Process of Elimination
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I love this idea. Want to find a pitcher? Go to a high popluation country, and offer a prize to someone who can throw hard and accurately:

Singh came to the United States with Patel after being declared winner of the Million Dollar Arm contest in India, run by promoter Jeff Bernstein, Barry Bonds' marketing agent. The contest -- the second edition is scheduled to begin this month and targets India because of its population of 1.1 billion even though the country has never produced a major leaguer -- was based on those who could throw the most pitches 85 mph or faster for strikes. Singh consistently hit 87 mph and earned $100,000. When veteran major league scout Ray Poitevint went to India to see whether he had potential, he also recommended Patel, who threw harder but wasn't as accurate.

If they really wanted to do this right, they should have this contest in every neighborhood, then keep moving the winner up against less and less regional competition. At the end, they'll wind up with 10 good arms that might be developed into major league pitchers.

Hat tip, AOL FanHouse.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:15 PM | Pitchers | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Athletics Election
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The Oakland Athletics received good election news on Tuesday, as the Fremont voting favored candidates who support a new stadium:

Incredibly, the results paint a rather favorable picture for the A's and their hopes to get the baseball village built. Several potential obstacles in Fremont have been removed. Incumbent mayor Wasserman, who has been the staunchest public proponent of the project, will stick around to see it through the EIR process at the very least. Wieckowski, also a supporter, will be there as well. They'll be joined by Chan, who is also a project supporter. Neither of the project's biggest critics, former mayor Gus Morrison and Sierra Club chapter leader Vinnie Bacon, placed higher than third in their races.

As the post points out, there are still obstacles, but Lew Wolff won't need to worry about too much opposition from politicians.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:23 AM | Stadiums | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
More Bad OBA
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Joe Posnanski complained the other day that the Royals were not sticking to their plan to acquire hitters with a high OBA. Now we hear from Sabernomics that Jeff Francoeur is at the top of the Royals acquisition list. If the Royals do trade for Francoeur, Moore will start moving into the Dave Littlefield space of GMs, who talk a better game than they deliver.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:36 AM | Trades | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
More Catchers to Florida?
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The City of Champions floats the rumor of a trade between the Marlins and Dodgers. The story is Scott Olsen and Dan Uggla for Russell Martin.

If this deal came to fruition, it would be the fourth good catcher in a row traded to a Florida team by the Dodgers. They sent Mike Piazza and Paul Lo Duca to the Marlins. They also traded away Dioner Navarro to the Rays (although Dioner was not good yet). I wonder if Dodger fans will be as upset about Martin as they were about Lo Duca. That turned out to be the right move. I'm not so sure about this one.

Update: The rumor denied.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:07 AM | Trades | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Unhappy Groundskeeper
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A fired Fenway groundskeeper writes an open letter to Larry Lucchino:

It isn't about food, or getting yelled at for the littlest things. It's about the lack of respect that the Red Sox have for some of its "unimportant" workers. I hope this level of treatment is limited to the grounds crew; I would hate to think it permeates more of the organization and is indicative of an overall cultural program. I would hate that if it were true.

I think that you and senior management need to take a hard look at the treatment of its grounds crew. An organization is only as stable as its bottom rung, and things aren't working too well for you on the bottom rung right now.

I have no idea if his story is true or not. We'll see if the Red Sox respond.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:41 AM | Management | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Taxing Issue
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Player Agents are already taking a potential tax increase into account as they negotiate for their clients:

Obama's proposal would increase federal income tax on families earning more than $250,000 annually, money that would help finance a decrease for workers and families earning less than $200,000. It's also possible more income might be subject to the Social Security tax.

Next year's major league minimum is $400,000. Agent Scott Boras, negotiating eight- and possibly nine-figure deals for free agents Manny Ramirez [stats] and Mark Teixeira, already has thought about the possibility of asking for larger signing bonuses payable this year in some of his contracts.

"There's some consideration to be had with the impact of the election," he said.

This could turn out to be a very busy last week of December. I'm also interested to see how big teams are willing to go bonuses. Let's say the market determines Mark Teixeira is worth a total of $100 million over a five year contract. Does a team give him a $20 million dollar bonus and pay him $16 million over the last five years of his contract? That would save Mark close to $1 million in taxes.

Or do teams just up the value of the contract? Paying him 1.7 million more per year covers the increase in taxes, giving him the same take home pay. So watch to see if contracts signed before the end of the year are structured differently than contracts signed after the first of the year, and if later signing free agents appear to be making more money than early signing free agents.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:17 AM | Free Agents | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Sabermetrics Wins Again
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Congratulations to Barack Obama on his victory over John McCain. Congratulations, too, to Nate Silver, who called the election extremely well. It's another victory for sabermetrics, or at least the political equivalent.

After the 1990, STATS, Inc. published their annual Bill James Baseball Handbook. For the first time, that book contained Bill's projections for batters for the 1991 season. When Peter Gammons reviewed the book, one of the things he gleaned from the projections was that Bill James predicted that Jeff Bagwell was going to win the NL batting title.

James did not make that specific prediction in the book. Bagwell was traded to the Astros in September for Larry Anderson and it wasn't clear that Jeff was going to play, given the Astros had Ken Caminiti at third base. His BA projection, however, was the highest of any National League player, so Gammons was in a sense right.

Bill later told me that he felt his whole system was on the line that year. If Bagwell failed, no one would trust it again. The Astros move Bagwell to first base, however, and while he didn't win the batting title, he did hit .294 and win Rookie of the Year. James was vindicated, and the system survived.

Nate, I'm sure, faced the same kind of scrutiny with 538. He nailed the result. It's another victory for statistical analysis, and I hope this spreads to more areas of political decision making as well.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:52 AM | Statistics | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
November 04, 2008
Great Move for MLB TV
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I saw earlier today that Matt Vasgersian left the Padres broadcasts. We now know why, as he's going to host MLB TV:

Lead Studio Host for the MLB Network: Matt Vasgersian, it has a nice ring to it. I wonder how tough that decision was, he seemed pretty comfortable in a cushy job like he had at the Padres. Collecting paychecks and praise, goofing off with Grant, living in La Jolla, watching endless hours of Squidbillies, eating nachos for every meal, not a bad gig if you can get it.

I bet there was more than once that he asked himself the same question that Rick Sutcliffe asked him, after a terribly boring loss by the Padres, "Matty! What're you still doing here in San Diego?"

Matt knows sabermetrics, and isn't afraid to talk about numbers on the air. I enjoyed his Channel 4 broadcasts, and his hire by MLB makes me believe the new network is moving in the right direction.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:31 PM | Broadcasts | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Saying Good-bye
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To no one's surprise, the Yankees declined to pick up the options on Jason Giambi and Carl Pavano.

Giambi will receive a $5 million buyout rather than a $22 million salary next season, completing his $120 million, seven-year contract. Pavano gets a $1.95 million buyout instead of a $13 million salary, finishing his $39.95 million deal.

That gives the Yankees $28 million to spend on new free agents. It's enough to land Mark Teixeira and part of a pitcher.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:23 PM | Free Agents | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Free Agent Rankings
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If you are looking for the complete Elias Rankings, the New York Post published them in the linked article.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:09 PM | Free Agents | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Burnett Opts Out
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A.J. Burnett opted out of his contract with the Blue Jays. He should receive a nice raise. However, he's unclear about when to opt out of a contract. Making the announcement in the middle of a World Series game gets one lots of attention. Opting out in the middle of a presidential election and few are going to notice.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:48 PM | Free Agents | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Friends Again
Permalink

Scott Boras and Alex Rodriguez appear to have patched up their differences.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:34 PM | Agents | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2008
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Baseball Info Solutions sent me their fielding data, and that means it's time to start presenting the 2008 Probabilistic Model of Range. If you're new to this, you can find explanations in this archive. Basically, for each fieldable (non inside the park home runs) ball put in play, six parameters are used to determine how difficult it was to field the ball. A probability of turning the ball into an out is calculated, and those probabilities are summed. That gives us expected batted balls turned into outs. We turn that into a predicted DER (defensive efficiency record), compare that to the actual DER and calculate a ranking.

The model is based primarily on visiting player data, smoothed, using distance on fly balls and a hard hit indicator on ground balls. Only 2008 data was used to construct the model.

Note that a team can post a poor DER during the season, but do well in this model if the balls put into play were extremely difficult to field. This helps the Braves rank second.

Probabilistic Model of Range, 2007 Data, Teams, Visit Smooth Distance Model, Ranked by Difference
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Index
Blue Jays 4215 2961 2896.74 0.702 0.687 102.22
Braves 4383 3033 2977.44 0.692 0.679 101.87
Rays 4264 3023 2979.66 0.709 0.699 101.45
Athletics 4285 2991 2950.73 0.698 0.689 101.36
Red Sox 4232 2953 2913.30 0.698 0.688 101.36
Astros 4292 2990 2952.74 0.697 0.688 101.26
Angels 4374 3022 2985.77 0.691 0.683 101.21
Brewers 4354 3036 3000.17 0.697 0.689 101.19
Cardinals 4597 3190 3163.77 0.694 0.688 100.83
Dodgers 4265 2941 2919.81 0.690 0.685 100.73
Cubs 4156 2925 2906.58 0.704 0.699 100.63
Twins 4607 3161 3144.82 0.686 0.683 100.51
Mariners 4512 3068 3053.72 0.680 0.677 100.47
Indians 4513 3093 3082.17 0.685 0.683 100.35
White Sox 4409 3021 3013.27 0.685 0.683 100.26
Marlins 4338 3002 2994.74 0.692 0.690 100.24
Diamondbacks 4224 2892 2886.85 0.685 0.683 100.18
Giants 4232 2897 2898.76 0.685 0.685 99.94
Tigers 4536 3105 3109.78 0.685 0.686 99.85
Phillies 4396 3054 3062.15 0.695 0.697 99.73
Mets 4335 3024 3033.17 0.698 0.700 99.70
Rangers 4667 3124 3136.62 0.669 0.672 99.60
Padres 4419 3074 3088.40 0.696 0.699 99.53
Pirates 4683 3157 3175.46 0.674 0.678 99.42
Rockies 4535 3072 3090.76 0.677 0.682 99.39
Nationals 4417 3041 3060.09 0.688 0.693 99.38
Orioles 4540 3119 3139.36 0.687 0.691 99.35
Yankees 4349 2962 2984.01 0.681 0.686 99.26
Reds 4299 2889 2921.00 0.672 0.679 98.90
Royals 4413 3038 3076.09 0.688 0.697 98.76

The Rays turned in the best combination of good pitching and good defense. Their .699 predicted DER was second to the Mets. Unlike the Mets, however, the Rays fielded more balls than expected, giving the best DER, but only the third best Index. The Blue Jays turned in a tremendous defensive season, a big reason their pitching staff did so well in ERA in 2008.

The bottom of this chart is very interesting. From the Padres down, teams 23-30 all turned out to be very poor teams with the exception of the Yankees. Defense didn't necessarily help a team win, as the Phillies were pretty middle of the road, but it certainly seemed to indicate a pretty bad team.

Note that last season, the Devil Rays were at the very bottom of the list. They improved both their predicted DER and their ability to turn batted balls into outs. That was enough to lower their runs allowed from 944 to 671 and make them American League champions.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:08 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
New Interface
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I haven't heard much positive or negative about the new interface to the Day by Day Database. Please let me know if you like it better or not.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:29 PM | Statistics | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Nailing It
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This qualifies as a good outing in any league.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:45 AM | Pitchers | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Peavy and Greene
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I wonder if the value the Padres gain by trading Jake Peavy isn't lost by the Padres trading Khalil Greene?

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:24 AM | Trades | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Jeter Worst
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Jeter is really getting hammered in the media for his rank in the Fielding Bible Awards. How many years does he need to rank at the bottom of shortstops before the Yankees move him?

Centerfield, right now, is still open. Put Jeter there where his speed and fly ball instincts work. Especially if the Yankees end up with Derek Lowe, they are going to need a shortstop who can gobble up the ball.

For those of you who are waiting, Probabilistic Model of Range rankings are coming soon.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:28 AM | Defense | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Second Interviews
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It turns out Jack Zduriencik already interviewed a number of managerial candidates:

Melvin's top assistant at the time was Jack Zduriencik. Randolph later told confidantes that he knew Zduriencik was up for the Mariners general manager's job and that he might be, in essence, interviewing for two jobs at the same time.

Zduriencik eventually landed in Seattle. Monday at the general managers' meetings, he talked about the Randolph scenario without specifically mentioning Randolph.

"I sat in on some interviews Melvin had in Milwaukee," Zduriencik said. "And I was privy to what went on in some other interviews I didn't sit in on.

"So when I'm going through the interviews, for some it will be like a second interview."

That should make the managerial hiring process easier, since Zduriencik should already have a good idea who he likes.

Update: Included link.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:57 AM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Maddux to Retire?
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Scott Boras say Greg Maddux is likely to retire. If he does, make your Cooperstown reservations for 2013.

That could be a very interesting year. Depending on how the Clemens lawsuit goes and how much stock voters put in Brian McNamee, voters might not make Roger a first ballot Hall of Famer. That could mean Rocket and Maddux go in together in 2013? Since Maddux is considered clean, however, maybe Rocket goes in the year after so there's no potential conflict.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:38 AM | All-Time Greats | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Second Sacker Search
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The Diamondbacks prefer to find a new second baseman rather than move Mark Reynolds off third base:

"There are more choices available at second base," Diamondbacks General Manager Josh Byrnes said. "To go get a third baseman, you assume the Reynolds move would go well. It probably would, but all things equal, we would prefer him to play third base. As we've looked around, there are more candidates to play second base."

Byrnes said the team isn't going to discriminate based on age or experience, noting that either a veteran or a prospect could work.

Looking at Win Shares for second baseman, it will tough to improve on Hudson. All the players with higher win shares at the position are locked up. Improving the DBacks offense will need to come from a different position.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:05 AM | Free Agents | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
More Theo
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Theo Epstein inked a contract extension:

Terms of the deal weren't disclosed, but Epstein told the Boston Globe on the first day of the annual GM meetings that he signed the deal "a while back." Terms of the contract weren't released.

Good thing the Red Sox didn't make the same mistake twice and let Theo twist in the wind this time.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:01 AM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Silence is Golden
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Elmer Smith writes on why Chase Utley's obscenity was so surprising.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:59 AM | Players | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
November 03, 2008
Payroll Problems
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It looks like the Tigers don't have much room to play with the payroll:

Dombrowski also revealed that the 2009 payroll would not see "a significant difference" from 2008. With the team already committed to spending a little over $100 million on 11 players, that means the Tigers have about $25 million left to find a shortstop, a catcher, resign Justin Verlander, bolster the bullpen and rotation, and fill in the rest of the spots with league-minimum players under club control (like Matt Joyce).
Posted by StatsGuru at 07:31 PM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Megadollars for Milliliter
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The Milwaukee Brewers offered CC Sabathia a contract. We don't know how much, but you can bet it would make Sabathia a very rich man.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:05 PM | Free Agents | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Yankees Plans
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Peter Abraham prints the latest on the Yankees hot stove plans:

The Yankees are out to acquire two starters. "We won't be one and done," Cashman said. The plan is to have a rotation of New Guy 1, New Guy 2, Wang, Chamberlain and then Pettitte/Hughes/Kennedy/Aceves/assorted bums.

This seems to imply that they see Wang as their third starter. I take that to mean they'll be going after pitchers on the talent level of Sabathia and Dempster. Do you want both Lowe and Wang in a rotation, or do you want more strike out pitchers? Lots of strike outs covers for a poor defense.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:56 PM | Management | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Chatting on the Infield
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Infield Chatter is a new blog covering all aspects of baseball. Stop by and say hi.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:57 PM | Blogs | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Peavy Consensus
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The consensus of polled general managers is that Jake Peavy will be traded.

Peavy is a valuable commodity due to his under market contract. Since the Padres don't feel that the money saved on Peavy can be used to turn them into winners while keeping Jake, a trade is in the offing.

As much as I understand these deals, I really don't like them. Maybe it goes back to Bill James's article on the Oakland Athletics in his 1985 Baseball Abstract. After giving reasons why the A's might come out ahead on the Henderson trade, James concludes:

Butt (sic) I wouldn't have made it. Did they get a fair price for Rickey Henderson? It's kind of like if you're an art collector and you have the Mona Lisa, what's a fair price for it? The idea in building a championship team is to acquire players like Rickey Henderson. It's a sad day when you have to give one away.

The A's did do well in the Henderson trade, although Jose Rijo came back to bite them in 1990. The Padres may make out well also, but it may be three or four years before we know that for sure.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:57 PM | Trades | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
They Ought to Give Iowa a Try
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I was going to link to this Joe Posnanski post on the Mike Jacobs trade anyway, but the Music Man reference sealed the deal before I even finished the article.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:34 PM | Trades | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Cameron Keeps Brewing
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The Milwaukee Brewers bring back Mike Cameron, exercising their $10 million option. This disappoints Bleeding Blue and Teal, who hoped Mike might return to the Mariners as a free agent. The Mariners don't really need aging, declining veterans on their team, in my opinion. I'd rather see them give a chance to some 22 year old earning the MLB minimum. At least he'll have a chance to get better.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:11 PM | Transactions | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Offering Arbitration
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River Ave. Blues makes the case for the Yankees offering arbitration to Ivan Rodgriuez. If the worst that happens is the Yankees wind up with Pudge as their backup catcher, it's not so bad. Given, however, the obvious dislike between Ivan and the Yankees after they acquired him, I doubt Rodriguez would accept.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:42 PM | Free Agents | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Big Money for Youkilis
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The Boston Globe points out that the Red Sox may wind up paying Jonathan Papelbon and Kevin Youkilis big money in arbitration. Kevin, especially, is going to get a huge raise due to Ryan Howard. Both are in their second year of arbitration. Ryan is one year younger in seasonal age, although both were born in 1979. Both are first basemen who can hit. Howard won a $10 million award last winter, and his salary is not going down. This year, Kevin's agent can argue that Youkilis had a better year than Howard. Yes, Howard hit more home runs and drove in more runs, but Kevin did about everything else better. He's ahead of Ryan in both win shares and VORP (subscription required for VORP).

Career wise, Howard posts better numbers, due to his power. Based on 2008, however, Youkilis's agent can make a very good case for Kevin deserving Howard like money. My guess is that Kevin will more than double his 2008 $3 milllion salary, and probably even triple it.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:05 PM | Transactions | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Huge Deal for Maddux
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The Texas Rangers made Mike Maddux an offer he couldn't refuse:

Melvin told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel last night that Texas has "overwhelmed [Maddux] with a huge deal" that dwarfed the multi-year contract the Brewers had offered him, and that Maddux couldn't afford to turn the Rangers down. No terms were even guessed at in the story, but Melvin said "he's probably going to be one of the top-paid pitching coaches" in baseball.

Why was Mike offered such a lucrative contract? He's a known quantity to the Rangers:

The younger* brother of future Hall of Famer Greg Maddux, Mike pitched the final game of his 15-year big league career on July 4, 2000, pitching the sixth and seventh innings of a 10-4 Astros loss to Arizona (for whom rookie Vicente Padilla pitched the eighth). Houston released him the next day. He retired a week after that.

And then came a move that probably led to this day. Maddux had barely cleared his Houston locker out when he agreed to take a job as the pitching coach for the organization's AA affiliate, the Round Rock Express.

Which was owned by Nolan Ryan.

And managed by Jackie Moore.

*This is a mistake. Mike Maddux is older than Greg.

The story also points out a number of Rangers pitchers who moved to Milwaukee and florished.

I assume that Maddux is on board with Ryan's vision of how to rework the Rangers pitchers from the ground up. Certainly, the use of CC Sabathia in Milwaukee shows that Mike isn't married to pitch counts.

The Texas Rangers might end up being a test bed for different ideas in how pitchers are developed and used. I don't know if Nolan Ryan is correct. Baseball strategy, both on the field and in player recruitment and development evolves over time, and mostly in the right direction. Ryan is betting that the evolution of how pitchers are used went wrong at some point. If Nolan is right, will he be able to pull the rest of the majors back to his way of doing things?

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:26 AM | Management | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Dinner Deal
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Rays fans get free pizza on June 17, 2009, in they happen to be in Denver.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:09 AM | Mechandising | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Process and Talent
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Mark Ellis

Mark Ellis
Photo: Icon SMI

Recently, the Athletics appear to be suffering from playing hitters with good process at the expense of talent. If you remember Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game, the A's encouraged good process at the plate. They'd praise a player who struck out looking on an outside pitch, but have words with someone who swung at a ball, even if it resulted in a good outcome.

This resulted in 2008 with a number of players on the team who can draw a walk, but don't hit:

2008Batting Avg.On-Base Avg.
Mark Ellis.233.321
Jack Cust.231.375
Daric Barton.226.327
Jack Hannahan.218.305

All of these players show good process at the plate, as indicated by earning a much higher OBA than batting average. They're good at not swinging at bad pitches. The problem is that they're bad swinging at good pitches. The whole point of developing good selectivity, good process, is to get the batters better pitches to hit, so they can smack the ball around. If a team's hitters don't have the talent to execute on good pitches, then why have them on the team?

Jack Cust is a good hitter, in the mold of Rob Deer, Ken Phelps and Adam Dunn. None of these, players however, should be the best hitter on a team. If you think about the greatest hitters of all time, or even today, they hit for average in addition to getting on base and hitting for power. They possess talent to go with their great selectivity at the plate.

The Athletics will claim they can't afford those players. Fine, they're not going to sign Mark Teixeira or Manny Ramirez to a big contract. Oakland, however, is not developing those players, either. The players they bring along have the process, but not the talent that makes the process effective. Until they find batters who can turn good pitches into hits, they are going to continue to wallow in walks that fill but fail to drain the bases.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:42 AM | Team Evaluation | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
November 02, 2008
GM Meetings
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The general managers start meeting Monday, and Peter Abraham is there to bring you all the action.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:55 PM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
New Database Interface
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I developed a new interface to the Day by Day Database. Please give it a try. My goal was to get you to your destination with fewer clicks and a shorter wait. Let me know if you find any bugs, typos, or if you have any ideas for improvements.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:29 PM | Statistics | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Fixing the Calendar
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Ed Valentine at Bugs and Cranks says Ken Rosenthal should be the last person to suggest changes to the baseball schedule.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:53 PM | Scheduling | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Back to the Bench
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Dale Sveum will stay with the Brewers as the hitting coach. I'm surprised by this. I would think Ken Macha wouldn't want his replacement sitting that close by.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:09 AM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Perfect Start
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MLB TV will debut in January with a broadcast of Don Larsen's perfect game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:18 AM | Broadcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Gain and a Loss
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Via Balls, Sticks and Stuff, the Phillies are set to name Ruben Amaro, Jr. their new general manager on Monday.

The decision to hire Amaro, 43, is hardly a shock. There was strong speculation when Pat Gillick was hired three years ago that he was brought in, in part, to mentor the young assistant.

Amaro, who was often presented as the public face of the Phillies front office as Gillick preferred to operate of the spotlight, is heavily involved in many aspects of the organization, including contract negotiations. It was Amaro who introduced closer Brad Lidge and spoke for the organization when the Phillies announced his contract extension earlier this season.

Amaro has strong Phillies ties. His father, Ruben Sr., played for the Phillies and then worked for the team in a number of capacities. Ruben Jr. was a batboy for the Phillies from 1980 through 1983, and also played for the Phils in 1992-93 and 1996-98. He is also bilingual and a graduate of Stanford.

As BSS points out, however, the hiring comes with a loss:

What is of more concern is the loss of Arbuckle. He is the man predominantly responsible for the developing of most of the Phillies core -- Utley, Hamels, Howard, Rollins, Burrell, and Ruiz. That's six of the nine players in the starting lineup that just won the World Series. And not only will he be missed, but what of the people he might take with him when he goes?

Congratulations to Ruben Amaro. With Arbuckle's resume, I'm sure he'll wind up in an important position with another team.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:21 AM | Management | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
November 01, 2008
Battery Trades
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Evan Grant notes the Rangers depth of catching talent puts them in an excellent position to acquire starting pitching via the trade route.

The Rangers have a little something to offer anybody seeking catchers.

Want an experienced big league starter whose contract is still affordable and who would be under a club's control for more than one year? There is Gerald Laird, who can't become a free agent until after 2010.

Aren't too worried about defense, but need some power and plate discipline? The Rangers can discuss Max Ramirez.

Want to gamble on a toolsy top prospect who has struggled at the major league level but has the potential to be a franchise catcher? That would be Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

The Rangers could deal all of them and still hold on to Taylor Teagarden, who hit .319 with a 1.205 on-base-plus-slugging percentage in September.

When two of my college roommates took introductory economics, they liked to make fun of the example, "The US has a comparative advantage in baseball bats. Japan holds a comparative advantage in Saki. Therefore, international trade will occur." With the Rangers holding such an advantage in catching, trades almost certainly will happen.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:13 PM | Trades | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Looking at Free Agents
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The Arizona Diamondbacks are looking at free agents to plug holes in their squad:

This year might be a little different for General Manager Josh Byrnes, who will head to Dana Point, Calif., for next week's meetings. The biggest reason could be the Diamondbacks' willingness to use free agency as a way to plug their holes.

"Unlike the previous three off-seasons, I think we're maybe a little bit more with an eye on free agency, obviously at the right cost," Byrnes said.

How about Manny Ramirez? For two years in a row, the Diamondbacks were a good team without enough offense. Manny gives them a huge boost. Josh Byrnes, coming from the Red Sox, knows Manny. That may be both a positive and a negative. It seems if Arizona really wants to make a push for the pennant, they can hope that the youngsters finally mature, or they can add a big bat in the outfield. Would short term, big money for Manny be worth it?

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:02 AM | Free Agents | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Expanding Horizons
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The Pirates signed an 18-year-old shortstop from South Africa, Mpho Ngoepe:

Ngoepe, 18, is a switch-hitting shortstop who signed with the Pirates about a month ago, then made a cameo appearance in the Instructional League in Bradenton, Fla.

"We need to find talent wherever it is," general manager Neal Huntington said. "It will be a great story if he makes it to the big leagues."

It also will be historic.

No player from South Africa has played in the major leagues.

This appears to be a signing in which the Pirates saw the potential for talent, rather than actual results. We'll get a taste for what he can do in the World Baseball Classic in the spring.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:44 AM | International | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
North by Northwest
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Ken Griffey's agent says Junior is open to returning to the Seattle Mariners.

His agent, Brian Goldberg, told The Times that the Mariners are among the teams Griffey would consider playing for in 2009. He was drafted No. 1 overall by the Mariners in 1987 and played for them from 1989 until orchestrating a trade to Cincinnati after the 1999 season.

"It's no secret Junior has a special relationship with the people in Seattle from the ownership and front office all the way down to the fans and business people in town," Goldberg said in a phone interview.

"He's totally open-minded to talking to them, I'm sure. He'd be open to discuss anything with them. However, he owes it to himself to see what else is out there."

I think it's going to come down to what team wants Griffey, not where Griffey wants to play. His seasonal age for 2009 will be 39. He's coming off another surgery. Even with a repaired knee, he's more likely to decline than improve.

Seattle seems to be a perfect fit for Ken. It will be like Ruth returning to Boston, Mays to New York and Aaron to Milwaukee at the end of their careers. The squad won't be that good, but getting to see Junior will keep the fans interested until the front office reworks the team.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:06 AM | Free Agents | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Disconnect
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It seems the FCC is out of touch with the people. Chase Utley dropped an F-Bomb during his speech after the Phillies parade yesterday, and the crowd loved it:

Utley's utterance was heard on all of them, and the Federal Communications Commission doesn't take kindly to cursing.

Anchors from NBC10, 6ABC and Fox29 issued on-air apologies almost immediately. CBS3's came later. Despite having used a tape delay of several seconds, the word made it onto their air.

...

Fans at Citizens Bank Park generally were unfazed.

"They hear worse stuff in school," said Ivette Centeno, 44, of Northeast Philadelphia, there with her two children and two grandchildren. "As a parent, we can explain that it was just excitement, and that we don't want them to say that."

Malik Muhammad, 29, of West Philadelphia, there with his daughter, Tia, 6, and Tia's mother, Tamika Taylor, 28, called the remark "surprising, but I can't say it disturbed us."

Of course, given that this was the second time Utley uttered the profanity on TV, maybe it's time to ask Chase to stop giving speeches.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:52 AM | Broadcasts | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Presidential Champions
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It looks like the New York Daily News is trying to swing the election to McCain:

Forget the Curse of the Bambino in Boston or the Curse of the Goat in Chicago. It's who's going to be living on Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington that will determine if a world championship returns to the Bronx any time soon. The statistics make it clear.

With a Democratic rather than Republican commander in chief, the Yankees have won several more pennants (22 compared to 17) and nearly three times as many championships (19 to 7). In fact, the team has a losing World Series record when the GOP controls the Executive Branch, going 7-10 for a .412 clip. Under Democrats, the Yanks are an outstanding 19-3 in the Fall Classic, which translates into a breathtaking .864 winning percentage. That's 197 percentage points higher than the team's overall World Series record.

My guess is there are a lot more people who would be happy to see the Yankees lose than win. I wonder if that's enough to make Massachusetts go Republican? I can just see the ads this weekend, "A vote for Obama is a vote for the Yankees!" :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:45 AM | Superstitions | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)