Peter Abraham examines why the hot stove is so cold. Unlike last year, we don't have the drama of the A-Rod opt-out upstaging the World Series to keep us entertained until the winter meetings start.

A fight between the Yankees and the mayors office led to a free suite but also a loss of revenue.

Peter Abraham lists Ian Kennedy's stats in the Puerto Rican Winter League. They're mostly good, but the nine walks in 19 2/3 innings bothers me. He's wild and tough to hit, something that doesn't work for most major league pitchers.

Correction: Fixed the title.

The Nationals' leader in wins, Tim Redding, underwent foot surgery on Friday and should be ready for spring training. Redding is a low strikeout pitcher who does okay in years he keeps his walks low.

I don't usually blog about football players, but having read this story, I think this picture pretty much explains
Plaxico Burress's season.

Billfer tries to explain the poor defense behind Nate Robertson and decides that batters were just very good at hitting balls in holes against the Tigers pitcher.

Bruce Markusen explores John Ellis's 1972 In Action card. Ellis shares the card with Hall of Famer Harmon Killebrew. The card looked familar, and 1972 was one of the few years I bought cards. I looked through the pile, and sure enough there's not only the In Action card, but John Ellis's regular card as well. Thanks for the memory!

River Ave. Blues notes that Andy Pettitte talking to the Dodgers complicated the Yankees decision to offer the left-hander arbitration:

Monday, you see, is MLB's arbitration deadline. By the end of the day, the Yanks must decide whether or not to offer arbitration to Andy Pettitte. This is a rather complicated decision, and it could play itself out in a variety of scenarios.

The easiest option -- and perhaps the most beneficial to the Yanks -- would be to offer arbitration to Andy Pettitte and hope that he heads to Los Angeles. As Mike noted earlier this week, the Yanks would land the 17th slot in the draft and a supplemental pick as well. But because the Dodgers would be giving up a fairly coveted spot, they may not be so keen to sign Pettitte if the Yanks offer arbitration.

Of course, if the Yankees do offer Andy arbitration, he may accept the offer, and New York ends up spending more than they wanted on Andy.

In general, it was a very good move for Pettitte to at least speak with the Dodgers. He held no leverage against New York until he did so.

Neal Huntington speaks on the way the Pirates are approaching the off-season:

"We are not throwing 2009 to the wind and saying, 'Well, we'll win again sometime in the future.' We know we need to win, and sooner rather than later, and we're going to show up, work hard, prepare, teach and go out to win every game" Huntington said. "But, if we can trade a veteran player and it brings us 12-18 years of control instead of one or two, and we don't take that large of a step backward, that's just good business."

And that is why, according to multiple sources, no fewer than of the Pirates' five veterans -- shortstop Jack Wilson, second baseman Freddy Sanchez, first baseman Adam LaRoche, reliever John Grabow and catcher Ronny Paulino -- already have been part of trade talks, to some degree or other.

To me, this is an approach to keep payroll low. I'd rather see the Pirates pick their weak link position and improve it as much as possible. Looking at the team stats by position, they can pick third base, shortstop or second base as their area of improvement for this season. Even just bringing one of those position above league average will help them score more runs. Given that the Pirates have such a log way to go, addressing two of those is probably needed. Just trading veterans to get more years of control, however, is not the way to build a winner unless the players acquired are good, too. Jack Wilson isn't going to bring much.

Freddy Garcia suffered an injury in the Venezuelan Winter League.

Baseball will reveal the number of players who tested positive for amphetamines for the first time in 2008. I suspect the number will be low. Players who tested positive in 2007 won't be included, and are likely not to be using with the threat of suspension hanging over them. It would be nice if they included the number already at the suspension testing level entering 2008.

Update: MLB reversed itself on this.

Bleed Cubbie Blue does not believe Jake Peavy will land with the Cubs, because Lou Piniella is happy with his starting pitching.

Thank you to all the readers of Baseball Musings. The site is seven seasons old, and would not have last this long without your support. Thanks for your donations, your comments and your emails. Best wishes for a wonderful day with your family and friends!

The Oakland Athletics appear to have an interest in Nick Johnson. Do they reall want both corner infielders constantly on the disabled list?

Nick and Nick wonder why Justin Morneau gets so much more MVP respect than Joe Mauer.

It looks like Boston won the Junichi Tazawa sweepstakes.

Boston already has veteran Japanese pitchers Daisuke Matsuzaka and Hideki Okajima on its roster, and Tazawa reportedly has expressed a desire to be a teammate of Matsuzaka. The two attended different high schools in Yokohama.

Will this open the floodgates? If Tazawa becomes a successful major league pitcher, MLB teams will step up their wooing of Japanese amateur free agents. I hope some agreement is reached that prevents this from causing the downfall of the Japanese major leagues.

I hope everyone traveling on this busy holiday has a safe trip and spends many wonderful hours with family and friends! I brought my daughter home yesterday, and the drive took only twice as long as usual.

Yale suspends the YPMB over obscenities written on a prop during the halftime show at Harvard:

Adding insult to the injury of Harvard's 10-0 defeat Saturday in The Game, which was held in Boston, Yale University's director of bands, Thomas C. Duffy, suspended the marching band Monday because of a "completely inappropriate and highly offensive" prop used during the halftime show, according to the Yale Daily News.

The newspaper quoted an e-mail Duffy sent to band members: "I was personally embarrassed and offended, and professionally compromised. I am suspending the Yale Precision Marching Band from all activities and performances, effective as of this very moment."

It was unclear what element of the band's prank crossed the line, but The Daily News said the band used as a prop "a graffiti-covered replica of the Berlin Wall, (which) was the centerpiece of a halftime show that portrayed Harvard as a Communist empire."

Friends, this is what happens when you send your children to a safety school.

A charity dumps Roger Clemens:

Although Clemens helped raise millions of dollars for charities associated with the event, the Giff Nielsen Day of Golf for Kids was held Nov. 11 at Houston's Shadow Hawk Golf Club without him.

"Roger Clemens is no longer affiliated with the tournament," said Nielsen, a Houston broadcaster. "We decided we would go our separate ways until his off-field stuff is settled.

"I approached him, and as we talked, we reached a mutual agreement that we would put our relationship on hold. He was good about it. He said 'I agree with the decision."'

It's amazing how far Roger has fallen. He either should have kept his mouth shut after the Mitchell report, or come completely clean and asked forgiveness. He's taken a path that just dragged him down.

The lawsuit against the Marlins new park delayed the opening one year. It's now slated to open in 2012. It's also possible that the delay saved money, however. Fuel costs are now lower, and interest rates for qualified borrowers are lower, also. Yes, the Marlins lose a year of revenue, but the stadium may actually be cheaper to build.

Squawking Baseball posts an interview with Manny Acta, who is not afraid to talk sabermetrics:

SB: You're obviously a very statistically-inclined manager. How do you think that gives you an advantage over managers that aren't as progressive? MA: I want to win. More than being statistically-inclined, I'm very open minded. If someone can show me things that I didn't already know, I am willing to change. I'm not stubborn. If the statistical evidence shows I'm wrong, and it helps me and my team win baseball games, then I would be a fool not to listen.

SB: Looking back, have there been any decisions that you made that perhaps you wouldn't have if you had not been so aware of sabermetrics?
MA: I would have bunted less when I managed in the minors. I still would have had the minor leaguers run, because winning isn't the most important thing down there, and most players have the green light to work on their baserunning skills.

I hope the Nationals someday get Manny talent he can exploit. He seems like the kind of manager I'd like to put in charge of my team.

Once again, we should have shorted Citi Bank when they bought the naming rights to the Mets Stadium.

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Dan Wakamatsu let go two of the Mariners coaches, including pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre. That appears to pave the way for Seattle to hire former Atheltics and Mets pitching coach Rick Peterson.

The Baltimore Orioles are in the mix for A.J. Burnett:

"There is sincere and mutual interest (with the Orioles)," Braunecker is quoted as saying. "We're not here to waste people's time or our time. We don't need to create a false market for A.J. Burnett."

With Burnett's injury history, he may be perceived to be a cheaper option than Sabathia. That may actually push his value up, as more teams are willing to chase him.

I had the pleasure of meeting Mike DiGiovanna at a social gathering at Jim Storer's house last night. Mike is the Angels beat writer for the Los Angeles Times. Like the rest of us there, he's a native Connecticutian. We had a good time talking about growing up in Connecticut, and of course baseball. I hope to have Mike on the Baseball Musings Radio Show soon.

The Pirates signed the two Indian pitchers who won a reality show:

"The Pirates are committed to creatively adding talent to our organization," Pirates general manager Neal Huntington said Monday. "By adding these two young men, the Pirates are pleased to not only add two prospects to our system but also hope to open a pathway to an untapped market. We are intrigued by Patel's arm strength and Singh's frame and potential."

Neither pitcher has taken the mound in a game situation, no doubt a first for a Pirates prospect. They have pitched in scrimmages against junior college competition.

Wow. The Pirates really have nothing to lose, and this will give them some much needed publicity. I did not see how much money the young men received, but their lives have certainly been turned upside down. I like the way they are learning English:

Patel and Singh are learning English, most of which they have picked up from watching ESPN's Baseball Tonight and by taking online classes.

That reminds me of the two brothers in Better Off Dead who learned English by watching Howard Cosell. I hope these two young men don't end up sounding like John Kruk. :-)

John Perricone ran into Tim Lincecum the other night:

First impression, he has that look, that glow, that the preternaturally gifted all seem to have. His handshake was impressive, to say the least. He did seem normal sized, not huge, but his hands were large, solid, and seemed very strong.

He was genuinely friendly, and I felt pretty great getting to meet him in person. Thanks for being such an approachable star, Tim.

I've noticed the hands on other players I've met. They all seem to have big mitts.

The judge in the Barry Bonds perjury case dropped three charges and merged another, dropping the total from 15 to 11. I guess that makes the odds of winning a little better for Barry, but the prosecution needs only to get one to stick to walk away with a win. Not even baseball players, however, are considered successful with an .091 BA.

There are conflicting reports about the Rangers interest in Junichi Tazawa.

The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2009 (Hardball Times Baseball Annual) is now shipping.

Hideki Matsui won't be playing in the 2009 WBC due to his injury:

But although a major-league source confirmed that Matsui did have some interest in playing in the WBC, Matsui never told Hara (or any other Japanese player) that he would do so. Always diplomatic in his relationship with the Yankees, Matsui wouldn't put his team in a bad spot by putting his desires against the club's.

Nevertheless, by having Cashman make the announcement -- teams have more authority on rehabilitating players than they do regarding healthy players -- Matsui should receive less heat from his home fans than he did three years ago. This time, in other words, Matsui has an excuse.

It's too bad, Matsui would make them a better team.

In anticipation of an eventual move to a new stadium and the name changing to the Miami Marlins, you can now reach the Marlins web site at marlins.com, not floridamarlins.com. Adjust your bookmarks!

Matt Cerrone comments on the latest rumors about the Mets pursuit of starting pitching:

...wait, what...why...i can accept not wanting to give lowe a five-year deal, assuming that is what it will take to get him...but to be bullied out of the bidding, because the big, bad Red Sox and Yankees are in the mix, well that's just sad...and i hope it is not true...

Indeed. With a new stadium providing a higher revenue stream, the Mets should be right in the mix with the big guns from the American League.

The Red Sox and Braves reportedly made offers to Japanese pitcher Junichi Tazawa, the young man who asked Japanese professional teams not to draft him.

The Baseball Zealot links to photos from the Polo Grounds. The collection gives one a nice feel for the park.

The Bronx View is a new blog and podcast devoted to the Yankees. Stop by and say hi.

As we know, a pitcher's ERA can be influenced by the defense behind him. This posts explores which pitchers were helped or hurt by their defenses based on how well fielders turned balls in play into outs based on how difficult they were off the bat.

Team PMR, 2008, Defense Behind Pitchers, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only

Pitcher	Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Chien-Ming Wang	NYY	306	215	200.92	0.703	0.657	107.01
Daisuke Matsuzaka	Bos	449	327	306.07	0.728	0.682	106.84
Jesse Litsch	Tor	569	407	382.14	0.715	0.672	106.51
Tim Wakefield	Bos	539	405	382.33	0.751	0.709	105.93
Ryan Rowland-Smith	Sea	366	262	249.06	0.716	0.680	105.20
Justin Duchscherer	Oak	409	308	292.97	0.753	0.716	105.13
CC Sabathia	Cle	334	228	217.23	0.683	0.650	104.96
Tim Hudson	Atl	435	317	302.69	0.729	0.696	104.73
Scott Kazmir	TB	378	277	264.57	0.733	0.700	104.70
Roy Oswalt	Hou	617	436	416.75	0.707	0.675	104.62
Jeremy Sowers	Cle	409	279	266.73	0.682	0.652	104.60
CC Sabathia	Mil	353	246	235.49	0.697	0.667	104.46
Armando Galarraga	Det	525	391	375.29	0.745	0.715	104.19
Greg Smith	Oak	578	423	406.63	0.732	0.704	104.03
John Lackey	LAA	469	329	316.59	0.701	0.675	103.92
Kyle Kendrick	Phi	560	380	365.69	0.679	0.653	103.91
Glen Perkins	Min	520	357	343.77	0.687	0.661	103.85
Ryan Dempster	ChC	572	406	391.16	0.710	0.684	103.80
Shaun Marcum	Tor	427	317	305.52	0.742	0.716	103.76
Paul Byrd	Cle	446	319	307.48	0.715	0.689	103.75
Brian Moehler	Hou	509	356	343.33	0.699	0.675	103.69
R.A. Dickey	Sea	374	263	253.88	0.703	0.679	103.59
Joe Saunders	LAA	623	445	429.72	0.714	0.690	103.56
Dustin McGowan	Tor	337	228	220.26	0.677	0.654	103.51
Adam Wainwright	StL	404	289	279.63	0.715	0.692	103.35
Josh Beckett	Bos	492	333	322.69	0.677	0.656	103.19
Jorge Campillo	Atl	490	347	336.39	0.708	0.687	103.16
Ben Sheets	Mil	589	417	404.45	0.708	0.687	103.10
John Lannan	Was	560	401	389.21	0.716	0.695	103.03
Zach Miner	Det	385	276	268.08	0.717	0.696	102.95
Kevin Slowey	Min	480	340	330.37	0.708	0.688	102.92
Vicente Padilla	Tex	524	356	345.93	0.679	0.660	102.91
Jake Peavy	SD	459	331	322.53	0.721	0.703	102.63
Jeremy Guthrie	Bal	587	428	417.45	0.729	0.711	102.53
Cole Hamels	Phi	635	464	453.13	0.731	0.714	102.40
David Bush	Mil	567	422	413.33	0.744	0.729	102.10
Paul Maholm	Pit	621	437	428.22	0.704	0.690	102.05
Jeff Francis	Col	469	321	314.83	0.684	0.671	101.96
John Danks	CWS	569	396	388.39	0.696	0.683	101.96
Scott Baker	Min	497	354	347.21	0.712	0.699	101.96
Roy Halladay	Tor	713	501	491.48	0.703	0.689	101.94
Matt Garza	TB	560	399	391.43	0.712	0.699	101.93
Micah Owings	Ari	312	220	215.84	0.705	0.692	101.93
Johan Santana	NYM	668	476	467.22	0.713	0.699	101.88
Scott Feldman	Tex	488	344	337.73	0.705	0.692	101.86
Oliver Perez	NYM	527	380	373.11	0.721	0.708	101.85
Derek Lowe	LAD	644	453	444.85	0.703	0.691	101.83
Scott Olsen	Fla	640	463	454.69	0.723	0.710	101.83
Felix Hernandez	Sea	577	391	384.12	0.678	0.666	101.79
Doug Davis	Ari	457	303	298.15	0.663	0.652	101.63
Edwin Jackson	TB	582	401	394.74	0.689	0.678	101.59
Dan Haren	Ari	610	421	414.60	0.690	0.680	101.54
Aaron Cook	Col	725	489	481.78	0.674	0.665	101.50
Kyle Lohse	StL	650	453	446.33	0.697	0.687	101.49
Jeff Suppan	Mil	589	407	401.18	0.691	0.681	101.45
Hiroki Kuroda	LAD	598	418	412.03	0.699	0.689	101.45
Dana Eveland	Oak	519	351	346.09	0.676	0.667	101.42
Jered Weaver	LAA	513	355	350.05	0.692	0.682	101.41
Todd Wellemeyer	StL	579	419	413.37	0.724	0.714	101.36
Carlos Zambrano	ChC	570	404	398.66	0.709	0.699	101.34
Jamie Moyer	Phi	625	437	431.36	0.699	0.690	101.31
Jon Garland	LAA	684	462	456.10	0.675	0.667	101.29
Braden Looper	StL	653	453	447.51	0.694	0.685	101.23
Miguel Batista	Sea	379	257	254.22	0.678	0.671	101.09
Jair Jurrjens	Atl	589	401	397.07	0.681	0.674	100.99
Matt Cain	SF	630	436	431.93	0.692	0.686	100.94
Kevin Correia	SF	382	248	245.75	0.649	0.643	100.91
Gavin Floyd	CWS	625	450	446.51	0.720	0.714	100.78
Javier Vazquez	CWS	598	405	401.92	0.677	0.672	100.77
Tim Lincecum	SF	562	385	382.12	0.685	0.680	100.75
Jason Marquis	ChC	554	390	387.25	0.704	0.699	100.71
Aaron Harang	Cin	552	379	376.37	0.687	0.682	100.70
Jose Contreras	CWS	402	280	278.09	0.697	0.692	100.69
Johnny Cueto	Cin	500	344	341.79	0.688	0.684	100.65
Joel Pineiro	StL	505	342	339.90	0.677	0.673	100.62
Brad Penny	LAD	311	212	211.06	0.682	0.679	100.45
Jon Lester	Bos	632	438	436.20	0.693	0.690	100.41
Boof Bonser	Min	382	249	248.24	0.652	0.650	100.31
Greg Maddux	SD	511	360	359.16	0.705	0.703	100.23
Aaron Laffey	Cle	316	217	216.67	0.687	0.686	100.15
Manny Parra	Mil	499	322	321.73	0.645	0.645	100.08
Gil Meche	KC	611	420	419.79	0.687	0.687	100.05
Mike Mussina	NYY	613	409	409.01	0.667	0.667	100.00
Jarrod Washburn	Sea	512	350	350.13	0.684	0.684	99.96
Chad Billingsley	LAD	556	370	370.36	0.665	0.666	99.90
Cliff Lee	Cle	670	462	462.50	0.690	0.690	99.89
Zack Greinke	KC	587	399	399.62	0.680	0.681	99.84
Ted Lilly	ChC	574	412	412.67	0.718	0.719	99.84
Tim Redding	Was	572	397	397.98	0.694	0.696	99.75
Wandy Rodriguez	Hou	393	266	266.71	0.677	0.679	99.74
Andy Sonnanstine	TB	632	432	433.24	0.684	0.686	99.71
Chris Sampson	Hou	383	267	267.83	0.697	0.699	99.69
Daniel Cabrera	Bal	594	409	410.64	0.689	0.691	99.60
Bronson Arroyo	Cin	605	408	409.76	0.674	0.677	99.57
Joe Blanton	Oak	440	303	304.31	0.689	0.692	99.57
Jason Bergmann	Was	445	310	311.45	0.697	0.700	99.53
Brandon Webb	Ari	671	458	460.45	0.683	0.686	99.47
Ervin Santana	LAA	605	422	424.34	0.698	0.701	99.45
Zach Duke	Pit	669	445	447.62	0.665	0.669	99.42
Kenny Rogers	Det	598	400	402.42	0.669	0.673	99.40
Ubaldo Jimenez	Col	572	395	397.49	0.691	0.695	99.37
Carlos Silva	Sea	564	365	367.36	0.647	0.651	99.36
Nate Robertson	Det	563	365	367.59	0.648	0.653	99.30
Jo-Jo Reyes	Atl	361	241	242.79	0.668	0.673	99.26
Clayton Kershaw	LAD	306	204	205.65	0.667	0.672	99.20
Ricky Nolasco	Fla	606	432	435.96	0.713	0.719	99.09
James Shields	TB	641	448	452.73	0.699	0.706	98.96
Justin Verlander	Det	598	415	419.47	0.694	0.701	98.93
Mike Pelfrey	NYM	652	446	450.98	0.684	0.692	98.89
Randy Johnson	Ari	531	359	363.22	0.676	0.684	98.84
Kyle Davies	KC	361	248	251.20	0.687	0.696	98.73
Edinson Volquez	Cin	511	350	354.63	0.685	0.694	98.69
Nick Blackburn	Min	658	445	451.38	0.676	0.686	98.59
John Maine	NYM	399	286	290.11	0.717	0.727	98.58
Pedro Martinez	NYM	337	225	228.38	0.668	0.678	98.52
A.J. Burnett	Tor	613	405	411.37	0.661	0.671	98.45
Jorge de la Rosa	Col	361	240	243.99	0.665	0.676	98.37
Mark Hendrickson	Fla	439	302	307.04	0.688	0.699	98.36
Brian Burres	Bal	460	309	314.46	0.672	0.684	98.26
Kevin Millwood	Tex	569	360	366.45	0.633	0.644	98.24
Brian Bannister	KC	603	408	415.51	0.677	0.689	98.19
Luke Hochevar	KC	430	291	297.11	0.677	0.691	97.94
Randy Wolf	SD	348	237	242.07	0.681	0.696	97.91
Brandon Backe	Hou	512	341	348.41	0.666	0.680	97.87
Barry Zito	SF	576	393	401.59	0.682	0.697	97.86
Cha Seung Baek	SD	353	238	243.40	0.674	0.690	97.78
Brett Myers	Phi	554	379	388.08	0.684	0.701	97.66
Mark Buehrle	CWS	699	466	477.66	0.667	0.683	97.56
Odalis Perez	Was	507	337	345.85	0.665	0.682	97.44
Andrew Miller	Fla	336	216	222.12	0.643	0.661	97.24
Tom Gorzelanny	Pit	332	225	231.65	0.678	0.698	97.13
Jonathan Sanchez	SF	442	297	306.08	0.672	0.692	97.03
Livan Hernandez	Min	525	339	349.78	0.646	0.666	96.92
Garrett Olson	Bal	451	295	304.47	0.654	0.675	96.89
Carlos Villanueva	Mil	320	220	228.02	0.688	0.713	96.48
Ian Snell	Pit	522	335	347.60	0.642	0.666	96.38
Andy Pettitte	NYY	641	420	439.26	0.655	0.685	95.62
Darrell Rasner	NYY	387	257	269.56	0.664	0.697	95.34
Adam Eaton	Phi	356	236	248.23	0.663	0.697	95.07
Fausto Carmona	Cle	405	273	288.06	0.674	0.711	94.77

Those are pretty impressive numbers for Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield. Not only were balls in play against them easy to field, the Red Sox did a great job of turning them into outs. For Yankees fans who are concerned about New York signing Andy Pettitte again, better defense would improve Andy's runs allowed a great deal. CC Sabathia certainly benefitted from good defense in both Cleveland and Milwaukee, so teams looking to sign him should be prepared to send their best fielders out behind the lefty.

Brian Bannister shows how important defense is to a low strikeout pitcher. His expected DER is low, and with the Royals doing a poor job fielding behind him, his actual DER was even lower. Bannister really needs to play for a team of defensive wizards.

Dugout Central posts a selection from the oral history of Yankee Stadium.

Giants Win sticks up for Barry Bonds as a player who helped the Giants win. The article that sets him off is an article that is down on the Giants signing Manny Ramirez due to the way Manny left Boston.

Chad Billingsly broke his leg from slipping on the ice. Jon Weisman has details. Chad is expected to be ready for spring training.

I bought the Storm anyway. I wrote this from the phone.

The Marlins won their legal battle to build a new stadium, but the delay will cost them time:

But the question becomes: Will the stadium be ready for Opening Day 2011, as planned?

Marlins President David Samson said the legal fight puts the answer in doubt.

''The Braman litigation was absolutely a delay,'' Samson said. ``We're evaluating the significance of that delay right now with our construction managers. I hope we have an announcement here within a week.''

The timing could be critical. The team's current lease with former owner H. Wayne Huizenga at Dolphin Stadium expires at the end of the 2010 season. The Marlins could ask the stadium owners for a partial year or month-to-month lease for 2011.

Braman said in an interview that his legal team will file an immediate appeal, another possible wrinkle in the stadium's plans.

They would not be the first team to move into a stadium mid season.

King Kaufman looks at the pros and cons of Mike Mussina making the Hall of Fame.

Mussina got his 270 wins in 536 starts, meaning he got a W in 50.4 percent of them. Sutton got 321 wins -- he won three as a reliever -- in 756 starts, which was 42.4 percent. Tom Seaver, who pitched on a lot of bad teams and a few good ones, got 310 wins in 647 starts, 47.9 percent. Perry won 44.2 percent of his starts.

If Mussina had won at the same rate in Seaver's 647 starts, he'd have retired with 326 wins. That would have tied him with Eddie Plank for 13th all time, and not only would no one have suggested he didn't belong in the Hall, no one would have dismissed the gaudy win total because he played on a lot of winners. With Sutton's 756 starts -- including the one during the Battle of Bunker Hill -- Mussina would have won 381, more than anyone but Cy Young and Walter Johnson.

Mussina went fairly deep in games, averaging 6 2/3 innings per start. That didn't give the bullpen too much time to blow games. Combine that with a low ERA and playing for high scoring teams, and Mussina was a win machine. I have no doubt he could hang around long enough to win 300 games like Maddux and Glavine. He just wants to move on.

The Newark Bears named Tim Raines manager. This will mean a trip to Bridgeport to see the Bears play the Bluefish.

Two star Cuban players were thrown off the Havana Industriales for trying to defect:

Ace pitcher Yadel Marti and star outfielder Yasser Gomez have been thrown off Cuba's top league team for "a grave act of indiscipline," likely ending their hopes of playing in the 2009 World Baseball Classic.

That should make it a little easier for other teams to win.

I just got back from the Verizon Store, hoping to buy a BlackBerry Storm. I was very disappointed. First, I called to an in-town Verizon dealer to see if they had the phone, since they give me the same deal as Verizon. They didn't, because they had to send the phones they received back due to a last minute software upgrade that didn't get put on those phones. So I went to the Verizon store, figuring they would have the updated phones in stock. While I was waiting for a salesperson, I got to try the phone.

The first thing I noticed was that the switch from portrait to landscape was very slow. The first time I changed the orientation of the phone, nothing happened. I thought maybe the function was off, but after many seconds, the screen changed. If I want to flip to a different keypad, I don't want to wait seconds for the change. Then, when I was typing, I found the left-hand side of the QWERTY keyboard off. I kept getting a d instead of an s, and an r instead of an e. It also took me a while to figure out how to bring up the screen with the @ as I tried to enter an email address.

Then I tried to browse the web, but I couldn't find the browser application. By this time, a salesperson came to speak with me. She then talked to the technicians, who said the browser application disappearing was a known problem! I'm buying the phone for the browser! I asked if I would lose the browser on my phone, and she said probably not. The phone on display had been out three days under constant abuse. In my opinion, if a phone breaks down under three days of constant use, it's not a very good phone. Obviously, no one dropped it, since it was tethered by a retractable wire to the display.

On the good side, the touch screen does feel like a keyboard. I like the tactile feedback. I also called my wife on her cell phone, and the call was crystal clear. Unless, however, they resolve the bugs that make the browser application disappear, I would hold off on buying this phone. Once again, Verizon disappoints me.

South Side Sox reviews the White Sox deal for Dayan Viciedo.

I'm somewhat surprised with all the hype over MLB designating Hal Steinbrenner responsible for the Yankees. This seems like a formality. Of course it was going to be Hal, as he is the good cop in the Hal/Hank ownership duo. This announcement doesn't really change anything.

Mark Teixeira would like to be signed by Christmas. He probably wants whatever bonus comes with the new contract taxed this year.

Dernell Stenson Award winner Jason Donald may not be blocked from starting, as the Phillies infielders keep going under the knife. This time, Pedro Feliz undergoes back surgery:

Feliz' procedure, a lumbar discectomy that will correct the intermittent symptoms that placed him on the disabled list for 26 days in July and August, requires an 8-to-12-week rehabilitation period, meaning he likely will be at full strength either at the start of spring training or soon thereafter.

The Phillies had Donald practicing at both Utley's and Feliz's positions:

Donald, meanwhile, has quickly become one of the Phillies' top prospects. He hit two home runs in a spring-training game against the Blue Jays, then hit .307 with 14 home runs and 54 RBI at Double A Reading. He also finished fourth in the recently completed Arizona Fall League with a .407 batting average.

During the AFL season, Donald played both second base and third base in addition to his natural position at shortstop.

I could see Donald moving into Feliz's position if he can post high OBAs as he did in the minors.

Bud Selig and the owners agreed on a rule change to make all tie-breaker and post-season games nine innings, no matter what.

I'm out at Red Robin and just saw on ESPN that Chase Utley needs hip surgery and may be out until mid-June. More later.

Update: Here's the story from Jayson Stark:

Utley consistently downplayed speculation about his bad hip during the second half of the postseason. But the Phillies revealed Thursday that since the World Series, he has had the hip evaluated by Phillies team physician Michael Ciccotti, of Thomas Jefferson University Hospital's Rothman Institute, and by Dr. Bryan Kelly, of the Hospital for Special Surgery in New York.

Both doctors recommended that Utley undergo surgery on his right hip. That procedure, described by the club as an "arthroscopic evaluation with treatment of any labral or bony injury," will be performed by Dr. Kelly next week.
According to the Phillies, Utley would be able to resume baseball activities in three to four months -- meaning sometime during spring training, but possibly not until the week before Opening Day.

However, full recovery time is projected at between four and six months. That means the best-case scenario is a return in early April, but the worst-case scenario is late May or early June, depending on how long a rehab option the club feels he would need.

So Amaro starts his tenure with a huge hole to fill. I wonder if this will make them more likely to re-sign Pat Burrell to keep two big bats in the middle of the lineup?

Paul DePodesta explains why it's not always the best idea to protect a player by putting him on the 40-man roster:

When weighing the risk of a player getting taken, it can be counterintuitive. It would seem logical that the best way to protect a player would be to put him on the 40-man roster. That is often, but not always, the case. Sometimes, for players who are borderline roster considerations, you may be safer by leaving him OFF the 40-man. The reason is that if he's taken in the Rule V, he has to stay in the Majors or else be offered back. However, if for some reason (add a free agent, add someone through trade, need someone during the season due to injury) you need to add a player to the 40-man at a later date, you may be forced to outright someone to make room. When you outright a first year roster player, he still has all of his minor league options, so teams can claim him and send him right into their minor league system. In short, it's much easier to lose a player trying to remove him from the 40-man than it is to lose him via the Rule V draft.

Waiting for Next Year was surprised by the choice of Chuck Hernandez as the Indians bullpen coach.

Mike Mussina officially retired today. Peter Abraham posts the glowing press release:

A master of control, Mussina walked only 785 batters in 3,562.2 career innings, averaging 1.98 walks/9.0IP. According to Elias, he is one of just three pitchers in AL history to toss at least 3,000.0 innings while holding opponents to fewer than 2.0 walks/9.0IP, joining Jack Quinn (1.96) and Cy Young (1.11).

The thing that fascinated me about Mussina was the way strikeouts came to him later in his career. Pitchers tend to strikeout more batters early in their careers, then fade. Through age 26, Mike struck out an average of 5.6 batters per nine innings, an unimpressive number. For the rest of his career, that would rise to 7.6 per nine. I especially remember game one of the 1997 ALDS in which he struck out nine Mariners in seven innings. He struck out 16 in the series. That wasn't the Mussina I knew, but when I looked at his record the changeover was clear.

My belief is that Mussina discovered with the increase in power during this era, he could take advantage of players swinging for the fences:

"I'm trying to get the guy to swing at a pitch he doesn't want to swing at," he explains. David Ortiz of the Boston Red Sox, a disciplined power hitter, has struggled against Mussina. Ortiz might see a first-pitch curveball and then, depending on his reaction, another one a bit lower. After he sees two curves, a fastball will seem quicker than it really is. So two fastballs might follow -- one low, one high, to change Ortiz's eye level -- and if Mussina has two strikes by then, he might offer a curveball down and hope Ortiz chases it for strike three.

He certainly had an interesting career, one that should land him in the Hall of Fame. I hope he enjoys his retirement. He'll be missed.

Rob Neyer devotes his column to the pitchers to win 20 games in their last season of play. He includes the interesting story of Henry Schmidt.

Studes points out this post at Brew Crew Ball showing the difference between the Yankees offer and the Brewers offer to CC Sabathia is a lot less than $40 million. That's probably another reason the Yankees didn't incrementally bid up the price.

In the post, Jeff Sackmann also makes the point that a shorter time frame on the contract might make Sabathia more money in the long run. It's a good point, and one that seems to be ignored by players these days.

The other day the Cardinals said signing lefty relievers was their priority, and now it appears Trever Miller is in the fold. This would be Miller's seventh team and ninth stint with a different team. Miller did do a good job as a lefty specialist in 2008, holding left-handed batters to a .209 BA. He walked a high number, however, as lefties posted a .305 OBA. Still, those are good numbers and what teams look for in that very specialized position.

The Yankees are not ruling out any free agent signings, therefore, they must be interested in Teixeira, too.

"Our focus is on our pitching, but that doesn't mean we're closed-minded," Cashman said. "If the pitching doesn't go the way we want it, we'll have to re-focus. We're going to be engaged on the entire free agent market. How it plays out, I can't predict."

It looks like the Boston and New York papers are trying to create a bidding war over the first baseman.

Phillies prospect Jason Donald takes home the Dernell Stenson Award for sportsmanship in the Arizona Fall League. Donald is a shortstop who gets on base. Given that Rollins is blocking him through 2010, he might end up as a decent trading chip for the organization.

Marc Topkin voted for Jason Barlett on his MVP ballot. I'll give him a pass, however, since he voted Mauer much higher than Morneau.

Junichi Tazawa is causing problems between the North American and Japanese major leagues:

Many Japanese baseball officials are outraged that United States teams are courting Tazawa, a hard-throwing right-handed pitcher, because they insist it is long-established practice for amateurs like him to be strictly off limits to major league clubs. Even some American general managers, including the Yankees' Brian Cashman, agree.

Major League Baseball officials maintain that the letter of their protocol agreement with their Japanese counterparts, Nippon Professional Baseball, does not forbid either league from courting amateur talent from the other's nation. When one Japanese representative characterized the rule as a gentleman's agreement during a meeting in New York, he was angrily rebutted by a Major League Baseball official, according to two attendees.

The Tazawa dispute extends beyond one pitching phenom and an interpretation of honor. The Japanese major leagues have already seen established stars leave for American clubs, and amateurs following Tazawa's path away from those leagues could further hurt the leagues' long-term viability.

The answer, of course, is to make all amateurs free agents and encourage teams all over the world to bid on them. Bring the Japanese into direct competition with North America, and when the two leagues come into parity, we can hold a true World Series.

Arn Tellem issues this statement on Mussina:

Mike will be making a decision on his intentions shortly. Given the significance of this to Mike, I would hope you can respect his desire to be the author of any such announcement consistent with his own time table. A decision of this magnitude should not be the subject of unconfirmed rumors and speculation. Accordingly, I am not going to make any further comment until Mike has made his final decision.

If you missed tonight's show, you can hear the recorded version here. It's also available at TPSRadio.net.

Ken Rosenthal reports Mike Mussina will retire later this week. I'll wait for the official word.

The Baseball Musings Radio Show is coming up tonight at 8 PM EST on TPS Radio. You can watch, listen and chat here. If you want to leave a question, feel free to do so in the comments to this post.

TPS Radio is on channel 100. At the bottom of the player you'll see a control with an up and down arrow. Click on that and select channel 100 from the list.

Tony Massaroti is making stuff up. He believes the Red Sox will offer Mark Teixeira the biggest contract in club history. Why?

When the Sox want something enough, they make sure they get it.

In the case of Teixeira, rest assured that the Sox want him, no matter what games are being paid by club officials. Publicly and privately, the Sox are saying nothing about their interest in Teixeira and playing dumb every time his name comes up. It's as sure a sign as any that they are preparing to go to extraordinary lengths. Last year, in the midst of the Johan Santana trade talks, the Sox were far more forthcoming about who and what they were willing to offer. When all was said and done, the Sox were not interested in acquiring Santana so much as they were interested in driving up the price for the rival Yankees; as it turned out, they kept Santana out of the Bronx altogether.

So the fact that the Red Sox aren't interested in Teixeira is a sure sign they are interested in Teixeira. An amazing bit of logic that. Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe hope Boston isn't interested in them either.

"CC, which team will you sign with?"

"Probably Boston. They haven't shown any interest in me, so I should be getting 10 years, $250 million!"

Yep, that's just the way it works.

Lew Wolff's idea of shortening the playoffs is to make the first round best of one:

"I'd make it one-game-and-you're-out for the first series," the Oakland Athletics owner said Wednesday. "It would be exciting. It would be great."

Begun in 1995, the division series has been a best-of-five competition. Some people have advocated it be expanded to best-of-seven, matching the league championship series and the World Series. Baseball commissioner Bud Selig has repeatedly said he favors the current format.

Wolff said he hasn't brought up his concept with Selig.

That would certainly make things pretty random. In 2008, we would have had the same four teams in the LCS as well.

Maybe this is the way to do the World Baseball Classic. Make it sixteen teams, single elimination. The tournament would end in five days so team can get back to spring training. If the teams are seeded and the opponents are set from the original pairings, office and online pools would pop up and there would be a lot more interest in the WBC.

The Rays fired the person who wears the Raymond outfit without explanation. Maybe they want an actual male taking over the role!

Dustin Pedroia winning the AL MVP reminds Josh Wilker of the 1971 MVP vote in which Fred Patek finished ahead of Bobby Murcer, despite Murcer being a much better ballplayer that season.

My favorite Patek moment came at the end of the 1977 ALCS. All series long the announcers kept telling us about the great fundamentals of the Royals, embodied by Fred Patek. They split the first two games at Yankee Stadium, and won game three in Kansas City with two more to play at home.

The Yankees won game four, and trailed 3-1 in game five going into the eighth, at which point Whitey Herzong over-managed his bullpen. New York scored one in the eighth and three in the ninth to take a 5-3 lead.

Patek comes up in the bottom of the inning, one out and a man on first. Patek was 7 for 17 at that point with three doubles and a triple. Certainly the great fundamental ballplayer would find a way to keep the Royals alive. Instead, he grounds into a double play. The Kansas City crowd stood at their seats in stunned silence as the Yankees celebrated on the field, and alone on the bench Fred Patek sat alone and cried.

It was one of the most amazing crowd reactions I've seen in sports. The only other thing that came close was Harvard winning the 1989 NCAA hockey championship. The game was played in St. Paul against Minnesota. Minnesota fans out-numbered Harvard fans 100-1. The Crimson scored in overtime to win the game. As ESPN pulled back to show the crowd, everyone stood their in stunned slience, except for a small section where the Harvard University Band was jumping up and down.

There is an unconfirmed report that the Royals and Red Sox worked out a deal for Coco Crisp:

Sports radio station WHB 810 in Kansas City reported this morning that the Red Sox have traded center fielder Coco Crisp to the Royals for righthanded relief pitcher Ramon Ramirez.

But during an on-air interview a few moments ago, Royals senior adviser Mike Arbuckle would not confirm that the deal was complete.

"I would say Coco is a good player and we're always interested in getting good players," said Arbuckle, who recently joined the Royals after working in the front office of the World Champion Philadelphia Phillies.

Crisp's career OBA is .331, which is okay, and an improvement over the Royals .320 mark of 2008. So, unlike the Mike Jacobs trade, the Royals would be moving toward their goal of a better team OBA, and ramping up their defense in center as well.

In the two seasons Ramirez picked up a decent amount of innings, he pitched well. He's good at keeping the ball in the park, strikes out batters without giving up too many walks. This looks like a good move for the Red Sox, trading away a spare part and improving the bullpen. We'll see if the deal actually goes down.

Update: The Red Sox confirmed the trade.

The survey of the positions ends with the pitchers. First the teams:

Team Pitchers PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only

Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Blue Jays	4215	181	161.32	0.043	0.038	112.20
Tigers	4536	187	171.99	0.041	0.038	108.72
Padres	4419	217	202.55	0.049	0.046	107.13
Royals	4413	170	161.90	0.039	0.037	105.00
Mariners	4512	161	154.23	0.036	0.034	104.39
Twins	4607	190	183.22	0.041	0.040	103.70
Mets	4335	200	192.92	0.046	0.045	103.67
Nationals	4417	193	186.24	0.044	0.042	103.63
Dodgers	4265	217	209.44	0.051	0.049	103.61
Cubs	4156	179	174.74	0.043	0.042	102.44
Phillies	4396	198	193.35	0.045	0.044	102.40
Rockies	4535	204	201.22	0.045	0.044	101.38
Cardinals	4597	205	203.96	0.045	0.044	100.51
Braves	4383	213	211.93	0.049	0.048	100.51
Indians	4513	169	168.95	0.037	0.037	100.03
Astros	4292	159	160.96	0.037	0.038	98.78
Marlins	4338	162	164.14	0.037	0.038	98.70
Red Sox	4232	154	156.88	0.036	0.037	98.17
Diamondbacks	4224	193	196.62	0.046	0.047	98.16
Pirates	4683	211	215.78	0.045	0.046	97.78
White Sox	4409	190	194.51	0.043	0.044	97.68
Rangers	4667	178	184.54	0.038	0.040	96.46
Angels	4374	148	154.21	0.034	0.035	95.97
Reds	4299	174	181.34	0.040	0.042	95.95
Orioles	4540	152	158.73	0.033	0.035	95.76
Yankees	4349	186	194.41	0.043	0.045	95.67
Athletics	4285	142	149.52	0.033	0.035	94.97
Rays	4264	114	124.63	0.027	0.029	91.47
Giants	4232	142	156.07	0.034	0.037	90.98
Brewers	4354	183	205.85	0.042	0.047	88.90

The Blue Jays not only posted an excellent team ERA, but helped themselves defensively as well. The Brewers staff depended more on the fielders behind them. In looking at the individuals, experience appears to be a key to doing well:

Individual Pitchers PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only (500 balls in play)

Player	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Jesse Litsch	569	39	24.20	0.069	0.043	161.16
Greg Maddux	649	59	39.59	0.091	0.061	149.04
Kenny Rogers	598	56	38.39	0.094	0.064	145.87
Livan Hernandez	674	31	22.40	0.046	0.033	138.39
Javier Vazquez	598	29	21.39	0.048	0.036	135.61
Felix Hernandez	577	32	24.02	0.055	0.042	133.25
Jeremy Guthrie	587	23	17.74	0.039	0.030	129.67
Jon Garland	684	31	24.42	0.045	0.036	126.92
Justin Verlander	598	23	18.21	0.038	0.030	126.33
Gil Meche	611	28	22.50	0.046	0.037	124.43
Kyle Kendrick	560	32	26.17	0.057	0.047	122.28
Zack Greinke	587	26	21.34	0.044	0.036	121.86
Bronson Arroyo	605	32	26.95	0.053	0.045	118.72
Cole Hamels	635	35	29.59	0.055	0.047	118.30
Joel Pineiro	505	28	23.71	0.055	0.047	118.07
Tim Wakefield	539	16	13.55	0.030	0.025	118.07
Tim Redding	572	22	18.86	0.038	0.033	116.64
Jason Marquis	554	35	30.06	0.063	0.054	116.42
Ryan Dempster	572	36	31.12	0.063	0.054	115.67
Joe Saunders	623	31	27.14	0.050	0.044	114.24
Glen Perkins	520	23	20.25	0.044	0.039	113.58
Vicente Padilla	524	20	17.70	0.038	0.034	113.02
Roy Oswalt	617	31	27.46	0.050	0.045	112.90
Brandon Webb	671	54	48.10	0.080	0.072	112.27
Aaron Cook	725	44	40.31	0.061	0.056	109.15
Jeff Suppan	589	28	25.91	0.048	0.044	108.06
Scott Olsen	640	20	18.55	0.031	0.029	107.84
Jair Jurrjens	589	37	34.69	0.063	0.059	106.66
Gavin Floyd	625	26	24.44	0.042	0.039	106.39
Zach Duke	669	37	35.21	0.055	0.053	105.09
Oliver Perez	527	17	16.28	0.032	0.031	104.42
Barry Zito	576	20	19.28	0.035	0.033	103.75
Paul Maholm	621	31	29.90	0.050	0.048	103.69
Matt Cain	630	27	26.14	0.043	0.041	103.30
Andy Sonnanstine	632	20	19.44	0.032	0.031	102.89
Hiroki Kuroda	598	39	37.92	0.065	0.063	102.84
Jon Lester	632	21	20.46	0.033	0.032	102.63
Kevin Millwood	569	25	24.56	0.044	0.043	101.80
Greg Smith	578	16	15.75	0.028	0.027	101.56
Brett Myers	554	23	22.85	0.042	0.041	100.64
Ted Lilly	574	15	15.03	0.026	0.026	99.79
Brian Bannister	603	30	30.11	0.050	0.050	99.63
Jamie Moyer	625	20	20.19	0.032	0.032	99.04
John Danks	569	24	24.25	0.042	0.043	98.97
Jarrod Washburn	512	20	20.39	0.039	0.040	98.07
Ubaldo Jimenez	572	35	35.69	0.061	0.062	98.06
Edinson Volquez	511	24	24.49	0.047	0.048	98.02
Mike Pelfrey	652	29	29.63	0.044	0.045	97.88
Kyle Lohse	650	30	30.67	0.046	0.047	97.81
CC Sabathia	687	27	27.67	0.039	0.040	97.59
Paul Byrd	608	17	17.52	0.028	0.029	97.04
Roy Halladay	713	31	32.28	0.043	0.045	96.03
Derek Lowe	644	39	40.83	0.061	0.063	95.52
Chad Billingsley	556	21	22.07	0.038	0.040	95.14
Joe Blanton	652	25	26.28	0.038	0.040	95.13
Odalis Perez	507	23	24.23	0.045	0.048	94.93
Dana Eveland	519	17	17.94	0.033	0.035	94.76
John Lannan	560	29	30.68	0.052	0.055	94.53
Armando Galarraga	525	13	14.04	0.025	0.027	92.57
Mike Mussina	613	28	30.47	0.046	0.050	91.88
Johan Santana	668	30	32.68	0.045	0.049	91.81
Ian Snell	522	21	23.11	0.040	0.044	90.85
Jered Weaver	513	10	11.02	0.019	0.021	90.71
Brandon Backe	512	16	18.01	0.031	0.035	88.85
Todd Wellemeyer	579	15	16.95	0.026	0.029	88.51
Carlos Zambrano	570	23	26.30	0.040	0.046	87.45
Nick Blackburn	658	24	27.47	0.036	0.042	87.36
Mark Buehrle	699	27	31.03	0.039	0.044	87.02
A.J. Burnett	613	24	27.68	0.039	0.045	86.70
James Shields	641	19	21.96	0.030	0.034	86.52
Carlos Silva	564	14	16.40	0.025	0.029	85.36
Dan Haren	610	24	28.16	0.039	0.046	85.21
Matt Garza	560	15	17.82	0.027	0.032	84.18
Edwin Jackson	582	12	14.35	0.021	0.025	83.61
Johnny Cueto	500	18	21.67	0.036	0.043	83.08
Ervin Santana	605	18	22.09	0.030	0.037	81.49
Ricky Nolasco	606	17	21.08	0.028	0.035	80.65
Nate Robertson	563	20	24.99	0.036	0.044	80.03
Randy Wolf	557	25	31.51	0.045	0.057	79.34
Tim Lincecum	562	17	21.44	0.030	0.038	79.28
Braden Looper	653	20	25.71	0.031	0.039	77.80
Brian Moehler	509	12	15.68	0.024	0.031	76.53
Aaron Harang	552	13	17.37	0.024	0.031	74.84
David Bush	567	18	24.87	0.032	0.044	72.37
Randy Johnson	531	12	16.86	0.023	0.032	71.17
Andy Pettitte	641	22	30.94	0.034	0.048	71.11
Cliff Lee	670	17	28.39	0.025	0.042	59.89
Daniel Cabrera	594	11	18.98	0.019	0.032	57.95
Ben Sheets	589	14	24.34	0.024	0.041	57.52

Jesse Litsch is young, but 2-4 are all veterans, and Maddux seems to come out near the top quite often. Mike Mussina, however, did not appear to deserve his gold glove. Remember to take this ranking with a grain of salt, since pitchers are not in the field that often compared to position players, and get many fewer chances to field balls. Luck is a much bigger factor in this group.

The Arizona Republic sold their stake in the Diamondbacks. They invested $7 million, but the report does not mention how much they received for their investment. I assume they needed the cash infusion to keep the paper going. I wonder when the New York Times sells their stake in the Red Sox?

Hat tip, AZ Snakepit.

Will the Boston Red Sox sign Dustin Pedroia to a long term deal?

Pedroia's agent certainly can go into any negotiations with a bit more confidence, but the Sox will go about their business the same way. They aren't against long-term deals for young, controllable players as long as the numbers make sense to them.

In other words, they'd do it if the long-term numbers wind up favoring the team - just as Evan Longoria's potential nine-year deal with Tampa Bay (which includes three option years) favors the Rays. But the Sox aren't afraid to go year to year with the probability they'll have to pay out more money just before free agency if they decide they want to keep the player.

The long term deals save money in two ways. They tend to understate salary inflation, and they save the cost of arbitration. These contracts also make players more tradable, since if the future value is really lower than salary inflation, teams can get a good deal in a trade. With economic conditions uncertain, however, the Red Sox may be better off going year-to-year with Dustin.

Amalie Benjamin gets Evan Grant's reasons for leaving Dustin Pedroia off his MVP ballot:

"I think the best way for me to sum it up is, in retrospect, obviously I was wrong," Grant said by phone. "My colleagues all, and people I respect an awful lot, thought Dustin deserved to be in the top 5. I had him on my ballot in some scenarios as high as No. 1 late into September. When I looked at the numbers that to me mattered most, OPS and batting average with runners in scoring position, he just didn't stack up with Youkilis at all. He was a laggard behind the others who had great years in the American League. Is it an error of omission that he's left off my ballot entirely? You could say that."

This wasn't as bad as the person who left Pedro off the ballot in 1999, and his reasoning is pretty sound. However, he also voted Mauer 8th, so maybe his overall reasoning isn't so sound.

Ivy Chat looks at how the signing of Ryan Dempster may preclude the Cubs from a Jake Peavy trade.

The Arizona Fall League named the six finalists for the Dernell Stenson award. Stenson was killed in a car jacking while playing in the league in 2003.

Stan Kasten tries to roll back excitement on a potential Mark Teixeira deal for the Nationals.

Dustin Pedroia wins the AL Most Valuable Player Award fairly easily, capturing 16 first place votes to Justin Morneau's seven. Pedroia was left off one ballot, however. He did not receive a vote lower than fourth. Teammates of the 1-2 finishers, Kevin Youkilis and Joe Mauer finished third and fourth. Each picked up two first place votes and Francisco Rodriguez took the other, finishing sixth behind Carlos Quentin. Mauer actually picked up the most second place votes, but his ballot placements were more spread out than Morneau and Youkilis, dropping Joe to fourth.

Pedroia is a perfectly good pick, but I still don't understand valuing Morneau over Mauer. Roy Halladay did not receive a single vote. Probably the strangest vote was a fifth place to Jason Bartlett, although during the season I did hear someone argue he was the Rays MVP.

The Cub Reporter rounds up news that Ryan Dempster will stay in Chicago at a very good price.

Jack Zduriencik probably won't announce his pick for the new Seattle manager until tomorrow:

"What I did today and plan to do [Tuesday]," he said, "is continue to touch base with dotting i's and crossing t's, in terms of background and history, so there are no surprises in the final selection."

What he is trying to avoid, no doubt, is any semblance of the Wally Backman debacle in Arizona after the 2004 season. Hired by the Diamondbacks on Nov. 1, Backman was fired on Nov. 5 after revelations of legal and financial problems surfaced.

It's also a good idea from a publicity standpoint. People will be focused on the AL MVP vote today, but tomorrow the Mariners should get all the attention.

Update: Don Wakamatsu appears to have the inside track.

Bless You Boys comments on Dontrelle Willis's winter workout.

The BBWAA announces the American League Most Valuable Player Award winner this afternoon at 2 PM EST. This is a very tough race to predict for a number of reasons.

First, the Red Sox own two viable candidates, Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia. Boston media and fans are pushing Pedroia, although Youkilis produced better averages.

Second, the Twins also trot out two viable candidates in Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. In my opinion, the combination of Mauer's offense and defense are much better than Morneau's, but voters like the home runs and RBI that comes in the other package.

Carlos Quentin, who might have been an easy first choice, missed the last month of the season.

Josh Hamilton, the feel good story of the last two years, cranked out RBI at a very high rate. He also plays with a teammate, Milton Bradley, who put up better averages.

In a year like this, where I suspect different regions will produce different results (the Minnesota players getting votes in the midwest, the Boston players getting votes in the East, Hamilton and Bradley getting votes in the west), don't be surprised to see Alex Rodriguez sneak in. Alex led the AL in VORP (subscription required) and was a close third in home runs at 35. It's possible that if the first place vote is split enough, and Alex turns out to be a consensus second choice, he could win the award. I don't think that will happen, mostly because the Yankees didn't make the playoffs. In a vote in which there are so many players so close, I would not be surprised if the consensus second place player won. Throw in Grady Sizemore and Cliff Lee to the mix, and there are possibly nine players who might pull down a first place vote.

I like Mauer myself. My ballot would probably look like:

1. Joe Mauer
2. Kevin Youkilis
3. Dustin Pedroia
4. Carlos Quentin
5. Grady Sizemore
6. Alex Rodriguez
7. Josh Hamilton
8. Roy Halladay
9. Milton Bradley
10. Cliff Lee

I'm very curious to see how this one comes out. The advantage of a Borda count voting system is that it produces a viable winner when there is no clear cut first choice.

Joe Magrane joins the MLB Network. I've been impressed with their hires so far.

Phil Sheridan embarrasses himself by writing that the NL MVP vote embarrassed the voters:

Pujols was not an embarrassing selection, not with his excellent numbers, but was still the wrong selection. And that should embarrass the association enough to do what it should have done long ago: get out of the business of voting on baseball's postseason awards - as well as the Hall of Fame.

That won't happen because the association is as incapable of being embarrassed as is Major League Baseball itself.

Voting for Edinson Volquez was an embarrassment. Manny Ramirez finishing fourth in the MVP poll was a bit of an embarrassment. Getting the vote right by picking Albert Pujols showed that some writers actually know what they are doing.

The Marcel the Monkey projections are now available at The Book Blog.

The Giants get the ball rolling:

Reliever Jeremy Affeldt became the first of 171 free agents to agree to a contract, striking an $8 million, two-year deal Monday with the San Francisco Giants.

He's put up two good years in a row playing in parks that favor the hitter. The money is right in line with Damaso Marte's contract, and Affeldt is younger and pitches more innings.

A helicopter photo shows Citi Field with grass in place.

The two New York stadiums seem to be moving along quite well. I wonder if they'll avoid the last minute fixes we've seem in other places?

The Hall of Fame came up with a replacement for the Hall of Fame Game:

Baseball's legends and old-timers will play in a new Hall of Fame Classic game beginning in 2009.

The inaugural Hall of Fame Classic will be held on Father's Day, June 21. The game replaces the Hall of Fame Game, which was discontinued this year after 68 years.

This might even be more fun. Instead of a group of minor leaguers filling in, their will be players people know and care about. It's a nice compromise.

Albert Pujols wins the NL MVP award, taking both the most first place and second place votes.

Pujols, who previously won the award in 2005, was the only player whose name appeared on all 32 ballots submitted by two writers in each league city. He was listed first on 18 ballots, second on 10, third on two, fourth on one and seventh on one for a total of 369 points, based on the tabulation system that rewards 14 points for first place, nine for second, eight for third and on down to one for 10th.

It's a very interesting vote, with Howard finishing second, and Brad Lidge receiving two first place votes but finishing eighth. Outside of Pujols and Howard, there was no real consensus. Manny Ramirez finished fourth, which is pretty amazing considering he was in the league for just two months. Sabathia finished sixth, again the voters recognizing the impact of a short term player. For the second year in a row, I'm surprised at the lack of support for Hanley Ramirez.

A question arose as to my earlier post, as to why I left Berkman off the ballot when I thought he played better than Ryan Howard. The answer was simply that Berkman was just another first baseman having a great year. Down ballot, I like to recognize accomplishments. So Howard leading the majors in home runs goes down there, as does Manny's two incredible months with the Dodgers, and Tim Lincecum's Cy Young season. I think there can be some subjectivity to the MVP ballot, especially down ballot.

Congratulations to Albert Pujols on his second win. If Barry Bonds hadn't been around early in the decade, we might have seen four or five wins by now.

Dan Turkenkopf calculates runs allowed or saved for leftfielders based on their PMR stats.

Update: Here are the runs for first basemen as well.

Mark Cuban charged with insider trading. Will that hurt his attempt to buy the Cubs? Thanks to Bob Tufts for the link.

The Mets asked the agents for both Francisco Rodriguez and Brian Fuentes to call them before they sign with anyone else. They also appear to have at least talked about a contract with K-Rod.

YFSF notes a rumor that Tim Wakefield may retire due to pain in his shoulder.

If true, that leaves the Red Sox with a big hole -- you cannot replace a starter who consistently posts a 100-115 ERA+ over 200 innings with a salary of just $4 million. On the other hand, it would eliminate the need for a specialized Wakefield-only catcher, making perhaps more possible a Varitek-Saltalamacchia semiplatoon as the one passes his baton to the other.

Luckily, his replacement is in Japan!

The BBWAA announce the National League MVP award this afternoon, and the pundits seem to handicap it as a race between Albert Pujols and Ryan Howard. However, that ignores a middle infielder with a great season, Hanley Ramirez.

There is no doubt Albert Pujols was the best hitter in the majors this season. If I'm filling out a ballot, Pujols gets my number one vote. I'm not sure how high I rank Howard. Here's a list of qualifying MLB players by slugging percentage. Note that Hanley finishes just three points behind Howard, and blows him away in both batting average and OBA. On top of that, he played a pretty good shortstop this season. Voting Howard second also ignores Lance Berkman, who posted better numbers as a first basemen, and other offensive contributors at key defensive positions like David Wright, Carlos Beltran and Howard's own teammate Chase Utley. If Ryan wins the award or finishes second, the Home Run/RBI wing of the voters is still alive and well.

My ballot would be something like:

1. Albert Pujols
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. Chase Utley
4. Carlos Beltran
5. David Wright
6. Dan Uggla
7. Tim Lincecum
8. Ryan Braun
9. Ryan Howard
10. Manny Ramirez

Manny was certainly the spark that brought the division to the Dodgers, but it's tough for me to include him for two months worth of work. I might put Cole Hamels there instead. We'll see how the voters decided at 2 PM EST.

Lookout Landing examines the claim that Francisco Rodriguez was just holding back on his fastball to gain control.

Francisco Rodriguez is a good closer. Of that there's no question. But there are already a lot of miles on his arm, and he's coming off the worst season of his career in which his fastball dropped a few ticks. That's bad. Those are two major red flags, and you better believe the league is aware. I would not want to be a fan of the team that ends up footing his contract, because while free agency is almost always about paying for what a guy's already done (as opposed to what you expect him to do), this one takes that to another level.

All pitchers eventually lose something off their fastballs. The good ones adjust by improving their control. It usually happens when they're 30, not 26, however.

A new Japanese independent team drafted a woman. Eri Yoshida is just 16 years old:

"I always dreamed of becoming a professional," Yoshida, who is 5-feet tall and weighs 114 pounds, told a news conference Monday. "I have only just been picked by the team and haven't achieved anything yet."

Yoshida throws a side-arm knuckleball and says she wants to follow in the footsteps of Boston Red Sox pitcher Tim Wakefield, who has built a successful major league career throwing a knuckleball.

I've thought for a while that a knuckleball might be the way for a woman to play against men, or as a really slick fielding second baseman. I hope she pitches well.

Joel Sherman notes that the Mets are benefitting from the number of closers available on the free agent market:

Now the Mets do not like Hoffman's stuff, and if you were guessing where Wood would end up, then playing for fellow fireballing Texan Nolan Ryan's Rangers would be a good bet (he is the team president). But the definitive league-wide availability of Hoffman and Wood only further saturated the closer market. And only gave greater confidence to the Mets that they not only will find a closer this offseason, but find him via free agency, which is their preference because that would allow them to protect their farm system.

The market has become so saturated, in fact, that an AL official regularly in touch with the Mets executives said it was his perception the Mets will wait to see if supply-and-demand take holds and the price falls, especially for the two main free-agent closers, Brian Fuentes and Francisco Rodriguez. As Hardball previously has reported, the Mets' main targets this offseason are Fuentes and Derek Lowe.

Having options helps prevent teams from being held up by players.

It appears the Red Sox came very close to suspending Manny Ramirez late in July.

According to multiple sources, Boston management had drafted an official letter of suspension for Ramirez, and delivered it to him at Fenway Park at around 11 p.m. on Friday night, July 25. For the second straight game, Ramirez had refused to play that evening, and the Red Sox lost 1-0 to the rival New York Yankees in front of a boisterous and sold-out home crowd. The letter informed Ramirez that the suspension was to go into effect the next day, Saturday, July 26. It said Ramirez was being suspended without pay for being unwilling to play. Copies of the letter were also sent to Major League Baseball, the MLB Players Association and Ramirez's agent, Scott Boras.

Suspensions in baseball are not unusual for players who test positive for performance-enhancing drugs or who are involved in fights during a game. It is extremely rare for a player to be suspended, or threatened with such a suspension, for refusing to play.
Within two hours after Ramirez received the letter of suspension, the Red Sox received two calls, according to sources. The first call was from one of Ramirez's teammates. He told a member of Boston's front office that Ramirez would play in Saturday afternoon's game against the Yankees. Within minutes, the second call came in from Ramirez himself, who confirmed that he would be available for Saturday's game.

If the story is correct, the threat appeared to work.

Our survey of the positions continues with catchers. Catchers don't field very many balls, so take these rankings with a grain of salt. First, the teams:

Team Catchers PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only

Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Brewers	4354	71	63.52	0.016	0.015	111.78
Mets	4335	54	48.85	0.012	0.011	110.53
Astros	4292	41	37.24	0.010	0.009	110.11
Pirates	4683	53	48.61	0.011	0.010	109.03
Twins	4607	45	41.93	0.010	0.009	107.32
Yankees	4349	56	52.39	0.013	0.012	106.89
Rangers	4667	49	46.47	0.010	0.010	105.44
Rockies	4535	58	55.02	0.013	0.012	105.42
Orioles	4540	41	39.10	0.009	0.009	104.86
Phillies	4396	58	56.28	0.013	0.013	103.06
Braves	4383	63	61.73	0.014	0.014	102.07
Diamondbacks	4224	50	49.19	0.012	0.012	101.65
Nationals	4417	34	33.64	0.008	0.008	101.08
Padres	4419	64	63.44	0.014	0.014	100.88
Mariners	4512	42	42.22	0.009	0.009	99.47
Dodgers	4265	38	38.45	0.009	0.009	98.82
Blue Jays	4215	57	57.84	0.014	0.014	98.54
Angels	4374	44	44.74	0.010	0.010	98.35
Tigers	4536	58	59.27	0.013	0.013	97.86
White Sox	4409	39	39.88	0.009	0.009	97.80
Giants	4232	48	49.80	0.011	0.012	96.38
Rays	4264	50	51.91	0.012	0.012	96.32
Red Sox	4232	51	53.09	0.012	0.013	96.07
Royals	4413	49	51.24	0.011	0.012	95.62
Marlins	4338	58	60.75	0.013	0.014	95.47
Indians	4513	45	47.90	0.010	0.011	93.94
Cardinals	4597	47	50.66	0.010	0.011	92.78
Athletics	4285	28	31.42	0.007	0.007	89.12
Reds	4299	52	60.30	0.012	0.014	86.23
Cubs	4156	42	51.03	0.010	0.012	82.31

It looks like the Mets trade for Brian Schneider turned out to be a good one from a defensive standpoint. It also looks like rookie of the year Geovany Soto might have some things to learn behind the plate. Let's look at the individuals:

Individual Catchers PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only (1000 balls in play)

Player	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Wil Nieves	1327	14	9.94	0.011	0.007	140.90
J.R. Towles	1252	8	6.01	0.006	0.005	133.04
Kevin Cash	1131	14	10.77	0.012	0.010	129.95
Ryan Doumit	2933	31	26.57	0.011	0.009	116.66
Carlos Ruiz	2517	42	36.54	0.017	0.015	114.95
Guillermo Quiroz	1176	8	7.01	0.007	0.006	114.11
Chris Iannetta	2633	35	30.83	0.013	0.012	113.52
Humberto Quintero	1321	15	13.41	0.011	0.010	111.87
Victor Martinez	1388	16	14.48	0.012	0.010	110.53
Jason Kendall	3988	67	60.93	0.017	0.015	109.97
Jason LaRue	1288	16	14.58	0.012	0.011	109.72
Joe Mauer	3805	41	37.60	0.011	0.010	109.03
Ramon Castro	1041	14	12.97	0.013	0.012	107.97
Gregg Zaun	1807	30	28.04	0.017	0.016	106.97
Dioner Navarro	2911	38	35.59	0.013	0.012	106.77
Ivan Rodriguez	2947	42	39.65	0.014	0.013	105.93
Brian Schneider	2575	30	28.52	0.012	0.011	105.19
Jeff Mathis	2351	33	31.46	0.014	0.013	104.90
Josh Bard	1253	21	20.28	0.017	0.016	103.56
Ramon Hernandez	3272	33	32.09	0.010	0.010	102.83
Miguel Montero	1191	15	14.77	0.013	0.012	101.53
Chris Snyder	2733	33	32.54	0.012	0.012	101.41
Brad Ausmus	1719	18	17.82	0.010	0.010	101.04
Gerald Laird	2419	24	23.76	0.010	0.010	101.00
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	1470	17	16.85	0.012	0.011	100.90
Jose Molina	2152	23	22.80	0.011	0.011	100.89
Brandon Inge	1541	21	21.16	0.014	0.014	99.24
A.J. Pierzynski	3428	31	31.53	0.009	0.009	98.31
Brian McCann	3470	49	50.81	0.014	0.015	96.44
Miguel Olivo	1509	19	19.85	0.013	0.013	95.70
John Buck	2902	30	31.39	0.010	0.011	95.57
Yorvit Torrealba	1819	21	22.19	0.012	0.012	94.65
Kurt Suzuki	3608	25	26.45	0.007	0.007	94.50
Matt Treanor	1561	23	24.36	0.015	0.016	94.43
Nick Hundley	1482	18	19.13	0.012	0.013	94.11
Bengie Molina	3272	36	39.00	0.011	0.012	92.31
Geovany Soto	3302	34	37.47	0.010	0.011	90.75
Rod Barajas	2262	24	26.60	0.011	0.012	90.24
Russell Martin	3655	31	34.63	0.008	0.009	89.52
Jason Varitek	3002	37	42.26	0.012	0.014	87.56
Jesus Flores	2116	13	15.03	0.006	0.007	86.52
David Ross	1238	17	19.69	0.014	0.016	86.35
Kenji Johjima	2617	20	23.53	0.008	0.009	85.01
Yadier Molina	3185	29	34.24	0.009	0.011	84.70
Mike Napoli	1931	10	12.08	0.005	0.006	82.77
Paul Bako	2272	20	24.25	0.009	0.011	82.48
Kelly Shoppach	2774	25	30.66	0.009	0.011	81.54
John Baker	1477	13	15.96	0.009	0.011	81.46
Chris Coste	1853	15	18.62	0.008	0.010	80.57
Shawn Riggans	1041	11	14.08	0.011	0.014	78.12

Here's another reason Joe Mauer gets my vote for AL MVP. He's not only a great offensive catcher, but he fields his position well also. For those teams interested in Jason Varitek, his ranking here is certainly another strike against him.

It's also interesting to note that Jarrod Saltalamacchia wasn't terrible behind the plate. I know there's much more to the position than the ability to field, but in this regard, Saltalamacchia shows a positive behind the plate.

Doug Melvin doesn't understand the Yankees bid for CC Sabathia:

"It sounds like they're overbidding," Melvin said. "If the speculation is true that we've offered CC $100 million, why would you offer $140 million? Why wouldn't you offer $110 million?"

Because, Doug, if they offered $110 million you might bid again. This way, they drive out all of the teams that can't afford $140 million, and see who's left. This leaves the Yankees with a lot less work to do. Since Sabathia is probably worth around $27 million a year, or $162 million over six years, the Yankees just took the bidding up to a decent level where it will move along faster.

Melvin should bid $150 million for six years. In all likelihood, the Yankees will top that. So Doug gets to look like a hero to the Milwaukee fans for being willing to spend top dollar on Sabathia without shelling out any money, plus he forces the Yankees to bid higher.

If all the other teams are scared away by New York's offer, the Yankees get Sabathia cheap. If they take part in incremental bidding, however, there's a chance another team breaks it's limit on CC. If someone bid $125 million, then $135 million, maybe they feel they've invested so much time in trying to obtain Sabathia's services that they are willing to break their $140 million limit and go to $145 or $150 million. If, however, that limit is met with the first bid, there's no reason to even get started. So by trying to drive out all the other bidders, the Yankees might actually save money over using Melvin's rational strategy.

The Mariners are adding a statistics department:

The department will fall under the auspices of Tony Blengino, a longtime baseball stats analyst and a special assistant to new Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik. Details of the department's mandate and size are still to be worked out, but the move could vault the Mariners from their perceived Stone Age approach to stats to one in which they're seen as one of the game's more progressive franchises.

"We want to take all the information at our disposal and combine it with our scouting," Blengino said Friday.

Good for them. They've used Matt Olkin as a consultant, and it's not clear if that relationship will continue. If you're looking for a job in this area, it's a good time to send your resume to the Mariners!

The Dodgers withdrew their offer to Manny Ramirez:

According to the Dodgers' website, the team has pulled its initial offer to free agent outfielder Manny Ramirez. What that means exactly remains to be seen because the team says it will continue to negotiate with him.

I find this a strange negotiating strategy. At this point, they'd be bidding against themselves. Until there is a better bid on the table, why withdraw the offer? I suppose it's possible that no other team bids for Manny, and then the Dodgers come back with a lower offer, but the probability of that is pretty low.

The Cardinals first priority is signing left-handed relievers.

Richard Griffin wonders if the large number of second tier free agents, combined with the poor economy, will push prices down:

The fact of the matter is that the effects of the recession will be felt by the majority of the 171 free agents (almost seven full team rosters) that have now placed themselves on the open market. It would not be surprising to quietly see the Jays and many others of their financial ilk enter the New Year without inking any major free agents, waiting into mid-January for the panic among the multitude of remaining players to set in when bargains can be had.

It might be a good winter for free agents to take one or two guaranteed seasons, instead of holding out; they can then explore free agency again when the world economy has had a chance to rebound.

Even at the high end, teams are unlikely to go overboard. If you don't get Sabathia, you can alway land Sheets, Dempster or Lowe, or trade for Jake Peavy.

The Braves are officially out of the Peavy sweepstakes.

The Yankees open the bidding on CC Sabathia:

The Yankees have officially tendered an offer to CC Sabathia, ESPN's Buster Olney reports.

Sabathia, the 2007 AL Cy Young winner, split last season between the Indians and Brewers (17-10 2.70).

The Yankees offered a six-year deal worth more than $137.5 million, Olney reports.

Let's call in $140 million, or $23 million per year. That seems to be a good place to start. He's worth more than that per year, but teams may not wish to go that far out in terms of seasons.

Nick Swisher and CC Sabathia are friends.

Dave Cameron, in calculating a value for CC Sabathia, sets the price for buying a free agent at $5.5 million per win. That puts the price of Sabathia somewhere between $27 million and $30 million per year, depending on the length of the contract.

Ducksnorts offers an FAQ on the Padres fire sale.

Dave Sheinin discusses how the Nationals might convince Mark Teixeira to sign with Washington:

"Mark, you are a once-in-a-lifetime player, especially to a franchise like ours. The Nationals see you as the foundation, someone with deep local ties who could be the face of our franchise for the next [six/eight/ten] years. We will build this team around you, and when we're ready to win it all - and we're closer than people think - you will have been part something truly special.

"Nowhere else in baseball can give you what you can get here, Mark. We're not only just down the road from your hometown. We're also the nation's capital. You'll have congressmen and Supreme Court justices watching you nightly. You might be a regular guest at the White House, given the President-Elect's love of sports.

"Face it: You can never own L.A., or Boston - at least not as long as Kobe and Tom Brady are alive. But you can own this town, Mark. It yours if you want it."

The Nationals minor league teams did well, and that's often a precursor to major league improvement.

It appears the ESPN blogs are no longer behind the Insider subscription wall. I can see Rob Neyer's blog and Peter Gammon's blog. Is this sweeps week or did ESPN finally wise up?

Update: It looks like Jayson Stark's blog is still behind the wall. Still having Neyer and Law free is great.

The Probabilistic Model of Range survey continues with first basemen:

Team First Basemen PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only

Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Cardinals	4597	363	330.17	0.079	0.072	109.94
Rays	4264	337	309.47	0.079	0.073	108.90
Astros	4292	352	334.44	0.082	0.078	105.25
Angels	4374	348	332.57	0.080	0.076	104.64
Reds	4299	340	326.62	0.079	0.076	104.10
Orioles	4540	330	317.28	0.073	0.070	104.01
Braves	4383	309	301.26	0.070	0.069	102.57
Giants	4232	306	298.46	0.072	0.071	102.53
Mariners	4512	312	305.65	0.069	0.068	102.08
Padres	4419	314	308.13	0.071	0.070	101.90
Athletics	4285	287	282.84	0.067	0.066	101.47
Cubs	4156	339	334.40	0.082	0.080	101.38
Mets	4335	323	319.48	0.075	0.074	101.10
Pirates	4683	293	290.12	0.063	0.062	100.99
White Sox	4409	295	292.85	0.067	0.066	100.73
Red Sox	4232	300	298.07	0.071	0.070	100.65
Blue Jays	4215	346	345.24	0.082	0.082	100.22
Rangers	4667	292	292.72	0.063	0.063	99.75
Dodgers	4265	288	290.00	0.068	0.068	99.31
Rockies	4535	311	318.74	0.069	0.070	97.57
Phillies	4396	335	345.93	0.076	0.079	96.84
Tigers	4536	258	267.90	0.057	0.059	96.31
Brewers	4354	299	311.39	0.069	0.072	96.02
Royals	4413	270	282.47	0.061	0.064	95.58
Nationals	4417	279	292.73	0.063	0.066	95.31
Indians	4513	276	290.25	0.061	0.064	95.09
Yankees	4349	270	286.22	0.062	0.066	94.33
Marlins	4338	296	314.60	0.068	0.073	94.09
Diamondbacks	4224	292	311.45	0.069	0.074	93.76
Twins	4607	262	283.33	0.057	0.061	92.47

As you might expect from the ranking of the top two National League teams, Pujols and Berkman competed with the glove as well as the bat:

Individual First Basemen PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only (1000 balls in play)

Player	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Albert Pujols	3833	310	275.70	0.081	0.072	112.44
Carlos Pena	3428	272	250.39	0.079	0.073	108.63
Rich Aurilia	1398	94	88.21	0.067	0.063	106.57
Lance Berkman	3899	329	309.21	0.084	0.079	106.40
Mark Teixeira	4009	322	302.91	0.080	0.076	106.30
Kevin Millar	3607	264	250.96	0.073	0.070	105.20
Joey Votto	3686	300	285.79	0.081	0.078	104.97
Todd Helton	2272	165	158.79	0.073	0.070	103.91
Casey Kotchman	3659	268	259.14	0.073	0.071	103.42
Paul Konerko	3069	214	207.95	0.070	0.068	102.91
Kevin Youkilis	2835	212	206.26	0.075	0.073	102.78
Adrian Gonzalez	4302	307	300.33	0.071	0.070	102.22
Derrek Lee	3848	322	315.59	0.084	0.082	102.03
Daric Barton	3322	211	207.92	0.064	0.063	101.48
Carlos Delgado	4088	306	305.60	0.075	0.075	100.13
Lyle Overbay	3919	330	329.98	0.084	0.084	100.01
James Loney	4023	267	267.57	0.066	0.067	99.79
Chris Davis	1295	81	81.23	0.063	0.063	99.72
Miguel Cairo	1223	84	84.91	0.069	0.069	98.93
Adam LaRoche	3647	224	226.60	0.061	0.062	98.85
Aaron Boone	1040	61	62.74	0.059	0.060	97.23
Richie Sexson	2103	133	137.24	0.063	0.065	96.91
Ryan Howard	4254	322	336.79	0.076	0.079	95.61
Nick Swisher	1340	81	84.91	0.060	0.063	95.40
Prince Fielder	4133	280	293.92	0.068	0.071	95.26
Chad Tracy	1496	110	115.89	0.074	0.077	94.92
Ross Gload	2727	163	171.75	0.060	0.063	94.91
John Bowker	1607	104	110.60	0.065	0.069	94.03
Miguel Cabrera	3772	220	234.22	0.058	0.062	93.93
Ryan Garko	3323	198	211.16	0.060	0.064	93.77
Conor Jackson	1696	109	117.40	0.064	0.069	92.85
Sean Casey	1042	65	70.15	0.062	0.067	92.65
Justin Morneau	4289	242	261.41	0.056	0.061	92.57
Jason Giambi	2795	164	177.51	0.059	0.064	92.39
Garrett Atkins	1638	101	110.77	0.062	0.068	91.18
Mike Jacobs	2860	175	194.95	0.061	0.068	89.77

Year after year Albert Pujols shows his defensive skill at first base. Lance Berkman is up there, also, making the MVP argument between the two that much closer. Mark Teixeira also offers an excellent glove to go along with his fine offense.

The most surprising ranking to me, however, is Justin Morneau. Justin is still young and shouldn't have lost a step. He's someone worth looking at in more detail. Of course, at the very bottom is Mike Jacobs, giving Royals fans another reason to dislike the trade.

Both the Mets and Yankees are planning on pursuing CC Sabathia. Imagine having to face Santana and Sabathia on consecutive days!

It looks like Ken Rosenthal was right on this one. The Padres don't have a deal with the Braves or the Cubs, and now they are looking to trade Jake Peavy to an American League team:

The Yankees and Angels could be next in line. At season's end, Peavy said he doesn't want to go to an American League team, but during the GM meetings at Dana Point last week, Towers said Peavy might be open to going to the Yankees and Angels.

If the Yankees and Angels become viable trade partners, Towers' leverage would increase, but because Peavy's consent is needed for a trade, that leverage is contingent on Peavy reversing his position. Barry Axelrod, Peavy's agent, gave no indication Thursday night that Peavy suddenly has become excited about going to the AL, but he did not rule it out.

That Kei Igawa deal is looking better all the time. Igawa, Kennedy and one of the Yankees outfielders to San Diego for Peavy. His contract is relatively cheap for an ace, and gives the Yankees plenty of money leftover to sign Sabathia. That would give New York a rotation of CC, Peavy, Wang, Chamberlain and either Pettitte or Hughes as a fifth starter, or even Mike Mussina if he still wants to pitch. Not bad, and they'd still have enough money left over to sign either Manny Ramirez or Mark Teixeira.

Fire Joe Morgan closed their doors. They will be missed.

Randy Johnson and the Diamondbacks could not reach an agreement. Johnson becomes a free agent and issues a statement to his Arizona fans.

Randy instructed us not to file for free agency until we made every effort to reach an agreement. The Diamondbacks have a budget based on their club's financial situation and obviously viewed Randy's contract in that context. Randy considered every reasonable compromise including offering to take a 50% pay cut, all to remain a Diamondback. However, the economic situation did not lend itself to an agreement.

Consequently, Randy is forced to file for free agency and consider all opportunities to further his career. He hopes to find a team where he can continue to pitch at a high level and contribute to another World Championship.

Randy and his family live in Arizona and he will always be a Diamondback at heart. Most of all, Randy will miss the overwhelming support the fans have shown him throughout the years. He wishes the Diamondbacks great success in 2009 and beyond."

I wonder if a team will sign him to a contract. He pitched well at times in 2008 but poorly at others. He still strikes out a high number of batters. Maybe he could be a Sunday pitcher for some club to keep his starts low.

Peter Abraham posts audio of Brian Cashman talking about the Swisher deal and sums it up also:

Swisher is not here to play CF. Cashman made that clear. He's here to play 1B. Cashman did not close the door to anything else happening (he never does), but it's pretty evident that they see Swisher playing 1B and having the ability to play LF or RF on occasion. That would enable them to keep Jorge Posada in the lineup once in a while as the 1B.

...

This move allows the Yankees to focus their attention (and money) on starting pitching. Mark Teixeira just lost a lot of leverage.

I wonder how much of that last bit was the plan all along. The Yankees might see how the bidding goes on Teixeira, and if it's not too high sweep in at the last moment with a great bid. That's pretty much how they got Johnny Damon. They made him a tough to refuse offer and gave him very little time to accept or reject it. It's easy enough to move Nick to the outfield if Cashman manages to land Teixeira anyway.

More likely, however, is that they'll buy two starting pitchers.

Dave Cameron at FanGraphs doesn't like the Cubs/Marlins trade in which Chicago appears to be replacing Kerry Wood with Kevin Gregg.

The Yankees acquired Kanekoa Texeira from the White Sox, along with a slightly better known player:

The New York Yankees acquired center fielder-first baseman Nick Swisher in a trade with the Chicago White Sox on Thursday.

The Yankees traded infielder Wilson Betemit and minor league pitchers Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez to Chicago in exchange for the switch-hitting Swisher and minor league pitcher Kanekoa Texeira.

Swisher is coming off a very disappointing season. I would have thought moving from Oakland to Chicago would have improved his power because of the park. He did hit well in Chicago, but was abysmal on the road. His career road numbers are much better, so if 2008 was a fluke, the Yankees are getting a good hitter.

I'm not sure he's the answer at first, however. I would rather see him in right, and have the Yankees sign a real power hitter at first base.

As a minor league reliever, Texeira does exactly what a team wants; lots of strikeouts, few walks and a minuscule number of home runs.

New York dumps Wilson Betemit, but gives up two decent enough pitchers in Nunez and Marquez. In general, the trade makes the Yankees younger, and the White Sox get a utility infielder and two pitchers who might help them in the future.

If the Yankees play Swisher in the outfield, I like the deal for them. If they think he's the answer at first base, I think they'll be disappointed.

Hat tip to YFSF.

Cliff Lee wins the American League Cy Young Award fairly easily. He took 24 of 28 first place votes and four second place votes. Roy Halladay received the other four first place votes. Amazingly, Halladay only appeared on 25 ballots. Three voters did not put Roy in the top three AL pitchers, despite some evidence that he pitched as well as Lee this season.

Voters seemed to be impressed with save totals, as Francisco Rodriguez tallied seven second place votes and eleven third place votes to finish in third. Mariano Rivera picked up three third place votes as well.

Daisuke Matsuzaka and Ervin Santana rounded out the field of pitchers receiving votes. I don't really have a problem with any of these pitchers receiving votes, I just can't see leaving Halladay off any ballot.

Congratulations to Cliff Lee on recovering from an awful 2007 season to come back and win the highest honor for a pitcher!

Apparently, not to the Dodgers.

R.J. Anderson makes a nice attempt at putting a number on managerial choices. It might make Yankees fans feel a bit better about letting Joe Torre go in favor of Joe Girardi.

Dan Turkenkopf list PMR Runs for rightfielders.

I'm not the only baseball blogger excited about the new Blackberry Storm. I've kept my Motorola Q way beyond the upgrade date (if you consider 8 months way beyond) because I've been waiting for the phone. From what I've seen, the storm may be it. I can't wait to get one in my hands to see if it really supports blogging the way I want to do it on a hand-held device. It looks like it supports copy and paste of URLs, which is the one thing my Q lacks.

River Ave. Blues comments on Kei Igawa making the AAA all-star team:

I don't really know what else I can add to this news. I, for one, am glad the Yanks' $46-million investment is paying dividends for some team. That 6.66 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in 71.2 big league innings makes me wonder just how bad AAA hitters are anyway.

Now, can we trade him?

That's a good question. He's not exactly blowing away minor league hitters. His 3.45 MiLB ERA is good but not great. My guess is put him in San Diego where get gets to face the weak hitters of the NL West in a tough park for hitters, and he'll get by as a fifth starter. Maybe the Yankees can package him for Peavy?

The Twins extended Ron Gardenhire's contract two years today. Unless something goes wrong, he'll be managing when Minnesota opens their new ballpark in 2010.

The 51-year-old Gardenhire, who was runner-up to Tampa Bay's Joe Maddon in the AL Manager of the Year voting, took over as Twins skipper before the 2002 season. He has led the team to four AL Central titles in his first seven years, posting winning records in six of those seven campaigns.

Only Tom Kelly, with 1,140 victories, has more wins than Gardenhire with the Twins.

It's good to see success rewarded. Ron's also one of the longest tenured managers right now, only trailing Bobby Cox, Tony La Russa and Mike Scioscia.

The MLB Network hired Harold Reynolds and Al Leiter. I like the way the MLB Network is putting together their studio show. I've worked with both men and I think there's a good chance this group will give Baseball Tonight a run for their money.

CBSSportsline says yes. Ken Rosenthal says maybe.

The BBWAA bestows the American League Cy Young award this afternoon. The smart money rests on Cliff Lee, who both won the most games in the American League and posted the lowest ERA. His main competition for the award comes from 20-game winner Roy Halladay.

Lee came out of the gate strong, winning his first six starts and throwing nine shutout innings in his seventh, only to see Cleveland lose the game in extra innings. He went through two rough patches, on at the end of May and one at the end of September. Overall, however, he allowed two runs or less in 21 of his 31 starts, and two earned runs or less in 22 of those starts.

Lee's strengths lay in his control and home runs allowed. He walked just 34 men on the season, a little over one per start and 1.4 per nine innings. He gave up just 12 home runs, or 10.7 per 200 innings pitched. He did allow a higher batting average with runners in scoring position compared to his overall BA allowed, but he only saw 165 at bats out of 847 total with men in scoring position. He just didn't allow men past first base very often.

The best case for Roy Halladay comes from the competition he faced. Lee, playing in the AL Central, faced Kansas City five times and the Twins four times. He went a combined 7-1 against those teams with a 2.69 ERA. Halladay, competing in the AL East, faced the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees a total of 16 times, nearly half his starts. In those 16 games, Halladay posted a 10-6 record with a 2.96 ERA in 118 2/3 innings. That's an average of 7 1/3 innings per start against three good teams.

Halladay posted the same walks per nine as Lee, struck out batters at a higher rate, but also gave up a few more home runs. Like Lee, Halladay gave the opposition very few chances with runners in scoring position, and allowed just a .214 BA in the situation.

This is a tough one for me to pick. Lee leads in ERA, and when he was on was absolutely brilliant. Halladay faced much tougher competition during the season and responded to the challenge. Both deserve the award. Lee will probably win, but Halladay's tougher competition would likely push my first place vote to Roy.

If you missed tonight's show, you can hear the recorded version here. It's also available at TPSRadio.net.

The Athletics-Rockies trade is official:

Matt Holliday hardly could have expected to land with the low-budget Oakland Athletics.

The A's completed their trade with the Colorado Rockies for the star outfielder Wednesday, securing the big bat Oakland sought for the middle of its order.

''Originally, it was a little bit of a surprise considering I've never been traded before,'' Holliday said. ''I spent my first 11 years of professional baseball in the Rockies organization. Any time you make a change there's a bit of an unknown.''

Colorado received right-handed reliever Huston Street, lefty starter Greg Smith and promising outfielder Carlos Gonzalez from the A's. The clubs reached a tentative agreement Monday, but had to wait for the results of physicals and other details to be worked out.

Now I wonder what other moves might come as a surprise from Oakland this winter? Maybe they'll sign a big name free agent!

The Baseball Musings Radio Show is coming up tonight at 8 PM EST on TPS Radio. You can watch, listen and chat here. If you want to leave a question, feel free to do so in the comments to this post.

TPS Radio is on channel 100. At the bottom of the player you'll see a control with an up and down arrow. Click on that and select channel 100 from the list.

The BBWAA award Manager of the Year this afternoon, Joe Maddon walking away with the award in the American League and Lou Piniella taking home the trophy in the National League.

I agree 100% with the first four spots in the National League voting. Lou Piniella got the Cubs out in front early and kept them in first place most of the season. He managed his offense, his starting staff and his bullpen well. My favorite moment from the season was when Lou came out to get Ted Lilly, who had pitched himself into a tough situation. Lilly didn't want to come out of the game and glared at Lou as the manager walked out to the mound. This was the kind of behavior that didn't go over well when Lilly pitched in Toronto. As Piniella approached the mound, however, he saw the glare and appeared to say to Lilly something like, you want him, go get him (meaning the batter). Lilly walked the next batter, and Lou removed him then, but he turned what could be a tense moment into a chance to show confidence in one of his players.

Charlie Manuel, who finished second and received eight first place votes helped the Phillies through the ups and downs to an NL East title (these votes are based on the regular season). Fredi Gonzalez gets the "team did better than expected vote." Joe Torre comes in fourth, leading the Dodgers to the playoffs thanks to a weak division, the Manny trade, and Joe finally playing the youngsters over the veterans.

In the AL, Maddon ran away with the win. This was clearly due to the Rays far outperforming expectations, even the 88 wins predicted by PECOTA. My Maddon moment came in the playoffs. Evan Longoria's mechanics were off, so Maddon took him out to the batting cage and put him through some pattern recognition drills with numbered tennis balls. That turned him around, at least until the World Series.

The surprise to me was Gardenhire's finish in second place. I'm attributing that to coming close to the playoffs with the loss of Johan Santana. However, the Angels under Mike Scioscia out-won their Pythagorean projection, and the White Sox were as much an underdog as the Twins in the AL Central, but actually won it. Ozzie Guillen deserves some credit for that, but maybe his profanity laced rants lost him the press. I would have voted Maddon, Scioscia, Guillen 1-2-3.

Congratulations to Joe Maddon and Lou Piniella on their well deserved awards!

David Ortiz spoke on the radio about Manny Ramirez, and says lots of good things about his ex-teammate. He was also asked if Manny quit on the team:

"Well, to tell you the truth, it was something going down between the Red Sox and Manny Ramirez that I can never really break that down for you because there's some personal reasons that he has with our owners and I never got to the bottom of it, and [he's] got his feelings, you know, Manny was, he got to the point that he really wanted to get to play for someone else.

"I'll tell you one thing, I'm the kind of guy that I look at the positive side of everything and Manny, I get to learn a lot of things from Manny. Manny's one of the guys that worked hard every day to have some really good performances out there, and I never saw Manny not getting prepared to play. . . now he wasn't happy here, everybody knows that. And when a relationship get to the point, you gotta make a move just like we did, and you go from there."

Also, via Deadspin, the Nationals will bid for Ramirez.

Gaslamp Ball laments the Padres lack of grace in getting rid of players.

The Red Sox announced that they will not raise ticket prices for 2009:

"We have been listening to fans, friends, and family about the challenges they are facing in light of the current adverse economic conditions," said Red Sox president and CEO Larry Lucchino in a press release. "We are also grateful for the unwavering faith and support our fans have shown us year after year and we hope our ownership's decision to hold prices for the upcoming season will in some way help ease the burden on Red Sox Nation."

The last time the Red Sox held ticket prices across the board was 1995 -- the season following the damaging strike that led to the cancellation of the '94 World Series.

I wonder how much getting a cut of ticket reselling plays into this? The Red Sox probably could drop prices, and still make out well as long as fans are willing to buy on one of the approved secondary markets. So the Red Sox get to look like good guys for keeping prices stable in a recession, while still making money due to the high demand for their product.

This looks like a move toward a market based approach to ticket selling, which I believe will benefit baseball in the long run.

Dan Turkenkopf continues to translate PMR stats into runs, taking on third basemen this time.

Keith Law names the three writers who voted for Edinson Volquez on the Rookie of the Year ballot. Volquez, of course, was not a rookie.

Doesn't the BBWAA give the voters a list of rookies? Voting for Volquez shows that these writers were derelict in their fact checking, but there are a number of players where it's tough to tell. At least set up a page on their website listing all rookies! (That page might exist. There is a member's only section. If it is there, these three should be kicked out of the club.)

Remember this the next time someone tells you that bloggers can't join the group.

Hat tip, The Big Lead.

Update: In looking at Volquez, I understand why the mistake was made. Keith Law assumes the innings are cumulative. They are not. If you do not break rookie status one year, the innings reset. So Volquez never reached 50 innings in a single season. He did spend too many days on the roster for Texas, however, in one of those seasons, that's why he's not a rookie. These voters still should have checked with Elias.

Update: Keith Law writes, and I retract the above update. The rule as laid out on the MLB web site (which didn't show up in my google search):

A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).

I've seen this rule with seasons left out making me think the numbers only applied to the previous season. I'm sorry for the error.

It appears the Yankees signed Damaso Marte to a three-year deal worth a total of $12 million. In his brief stint with the Yankees in 2008, Marte's walks were way above his career average, which is very good, but his strikeouts and homers were fine. I'll take the walks as a fluke right now and call this a good signing at a good price.

Cal Ripken continues his work for the State Department with a trip to Nicaragua. He'll be blogging for MASN during his visit:

Cal Ripken Jr. will travel to Nicaragua on behalf of the State Department from November 13-18 to bring the Ripken Baseball brand of instruction to over 500 Nicaraguan children and 100 youth coaches. Throughout the trip, Ripken will be blogging on MASNSports.com about his experience. Cal's blog will contain trip updates, stories about the children he meets, reflections about the country's baseball culture and photographs from his travels.

During the five day trip, Ripken will visit the cities of Managua, Leon and Granada. He will be joined by Hall of Famer, former teammate and Nicaraguan native Dennis Martinez. The 23-year Major League veteran and 4-time All Star finished his playing career in 1998 with 245 victories and a 3.70 ERA. The duo will be joined by two instructors from Ripken Baseball.

The survery of range continues with leftfielders. The following table shows how the thirty teams fared at the position:

Team Leftfielders PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only

Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Royals	4413	368	353.21	0.083	0.080	104.19
Indians	4513	302	290.89	0.067	0.064	103.82
Rays	4264	344	331.81	0.081	0.078	103.67
Nationals	4417	350	339.72	0.079	0.077	103.03
Mets	4335	308	299.09	0.071	0.069	102.98
Diamondbacks	4224	306	298.79	0.072	0.071	102.41
Braves	4383	279	273.49	0.064	0.062	102.02
Brewers	4354	305	299.07	0.070	0.069	101.98
White Sox	4409	293	287.74	0.066	0.065	101.83
Rangers	4667	323	317.21	0.069	0.068	101.83
Orioles	4540	362	355.59	0.080	0.078	101.80
Athletics	4285	333	328.28	0.078	0.077	101.44
Astros	4292	282	278.71	0.066	0.065	101.18
Padres	4419	310	306.42	0.070	0.069	101.17
Cardinals	4597	312	308.84	0.068	0.067	101.02
Red Sox	4232	292	291.37	0.069	0.069	100.22
Dodgers	4265	286	285.62	0.067	0.067	100.13
Tigers	4536	356	355.77	0.078	0.078	100.06
Giants	4232	308	308.26	0.073	0.073	99.92
Yankees	4349	316	316.76	0.073	0.073	99.76
Angels	4374	285	286.29	0.065	0.065	99.55
Cubs	4156	302	304.23	0.073	0.073	99.27
Blue Jays	4215	270	272.75	0.064	0.065	98.99
Pirates	4683	293	299.34	0.063	0.064	97.88
Reds	4299	280	288.41	0.065	0.067	97.08
Rockies	4535	282	290.95	0.062	0.064	96.92
Marlins	4338	289	299.06	0.067	0.069	96.64
Mariners	4512	324	336.18	0.072	0.075	96.38
Twins	4607	306	327.83	0.066	0.071	93.34
Phillies	4396	260	279.09	0.059	0.063	93.16

As in rightfield, there doesn't seem to be a huge correlation between doing well in left and winning. The Royals displayed the best defense at the position, while the Phillies came out at the bottom of the pack.

The list of individuals in left shows that very few teams employ a regular at the position:

Individual Leftfielder PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only (1000 balls in play)

Player	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Skip Schumaker	1085	85	73.79	0.078	0.068	115.20
David DeJesus	1522	136	121.91	0.089	0.080	111.56
Brandon Boggs	1818	131	118.10	0.072	0.065	110.92
Matt Joyce	1249	94	84.77	0.075	0.068	110.89
Ben Francisco	2021	150	138.34	0.074	0.068	108.43
Juan Pierre	1816	125	116.83	0.069	0.064	107.00
Willie Harris	1685	145	135.55	0.086	0.080	106.97
Carl Crawford	2715	231	217.97	0.085	0.080	105.98
Conor Jackson	1944	146	139.06	0.075	0.072	104.99
Gregor Blanco	1547	86	82.08	0.056	0.053	104.78
Jay Payton	1293	132	126.31	0.102	0.098	104.51
Luke Scott	2668	200	196.08	0.075	0.073	102.00
Johnny Damon	1998	155	152.00	0.078	0.076	101.97
Ryan Braun	3919	275	270.93	0.070	0.069	101.50
Wily Mo Pena	1260	99	97.68	0.079	0.078	101.35
Carlos Lee	2840	187	185.42	0.066	0.065	100.85
David Dellucci	1164	75	74.64	0.064	0.064	100.48
Adam Dunn	2942	210	209.06	0.071	0.071	100.45
Alfonso Soriano	2653	186	185.23	0.070	0.070	100.42
Fred Lewis	2622	178	177.57	0.068	0.068	100.24
Carlos Quentin	3465	228	228.42	0.066	0.066	99.81
Jack Cust	1753	129	129.74	0.074	0.074	99.43
Emil Brown	1229	89	89.70	0.072	0.073	99.21
Chase Headley	2159	156	157.62	0.072	0.073	98.97
Matt Holliday	3850	240	243.20	0.062	0.063	98.68
Manny Ramirez	2894	190	193.40	0.066	0.067	98.24
Adam Lind	1712	113	115.52	0.066	0.067	97.81
Xavier Nady	1212	87	89.04	0.072	0.073	97.71
Chris Duncan	1012	73	74.80	0.072	0.074	97.59
Raul Ibanez	4203	303	312.07	0.072	0.074	97.09
Garret Anderson	2113	144	148.53	0.068	0.070	96.95
Jose Guillen	1098	83	85.62	0.076	0.078	96.94
Luis Gonzalez	1547	105	109.32	0.068	0.071	96.05
David Murphy	1317	86	89.62	0.065	0.068	95.96
Josh Willingham	2551	166	173.80	0.065	0.068	95.51
Eric Byrnes	1209	76	80.12	0.063	0.066	94.86
Jason Bay	4215	254	268.19	0.060	0.064	94.71
Marcus Thames	1537	120	127.42	0.078	0.083	94.18
Delmon Young	4209	282	301.19	0.067	0.072	93.63
Pat Burrell	3646	202	223.39	0.055	0.061	90.42

Ryan Braun is the first player on the list on the field in left for over 3000 balls in play. Some of this was caused by injuries (Soriano, Matsui), but for the most part, managers mix and match at the position. The move to left was clearly the right one for Braun.

The other rankings of note belong to Manny Ramirez and Jason Bay. Manny actually did better than Jason in 2008. I'm going to need to break down the two by team to see how much the parks might have made a difference. Bay certainly looked better than Manny watching him play for the Red Sox.

All those late inning substitutions Charlie Manuel made for Pat Burrell looked proper, also. Pat ranks as the worst leftfielder in baseball in 2008, so it's no wonder Charlie wanted a better glove in left when the Phillies had the lead late.

Mets-Citi-Blog is a new Mets blog by Brian DePersis. Stopy by and say hi.

Pat Neshek hurt himself throwing last week:

Minnesota Twins reliever Pat Neshek will have ligament replacement surgery on his right elbow and is expected to miss next season.

The right-hander re-injured his elbow last week during a throwing session at the team's facility in Florida. He had an MRI exam Tuesday, which revealed a complete tear of his ulnar collateral ligament. The procedure could take place next week.

After a standout season in 2007 as Minnesota's primary setup man, Neshek sustained a partial tear of the ligament during a game in May. The Twins recommended rest and rehabilitation rather than surgery at the time. Neshek said last month his recovery was on track and he'd be ready for spring training.

That's too bad. I wonder if more players will opt for surgery first after this incident.

Pat at Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke? will miss Salomon Torres. The former Pirates pitcher retired today.

I drove my daughter back to school this afternoon. As we approached Boston, we switched to Mike FM (they play everything). They play Margaritaville, and when it finishes, I hear a familiar piano introduction. I say to my daughter, "This is a great combination, Margaritaville followed by Werewolves of London." She then tells me I'm listening to a Kid Rock song. So disappointing.

Here's how it should have been played:

Tim Lincecum takes home the BBWAA Cy Young Award in the National League. I'm waiting to see the vote. Although I would have voted for Santana, I can't complain about this choice. See my thoughts from earlier today.

Update: Here's the vote from the BBWAA. Webb came in second, Santana third. The voters split down the middle on which should be in first, but Webb was the consensus second choice. It appears that wins still carry a lot of weight among some sports writers.

There was not a lot of support for Sabathia. Given the amount of ink and pixels devoted to his candidacy during the second half of the season, I expected him to get more support. Instead, he received one first, second and third place vote.

Congratulations to Tim Lincecum on his outstanding season!

The Nationals will hold a 3:30 PM EST news conference to announce their deal with the Marlins.

Herb Score passed away this morning (Tuesday). He was a young phenom on the mound when a line drive put an end to his greatness:

McDougald, the second batter of the game, reached for a low pitch and lined it back at Score. The ball crashed into his face, breaking his nose, cutting his right eyelid and causing swelling and hemmorhaging of the cheekbone and eyebrow.

Third baseman Al Smith picked up the carom and threw McDougald out at first.

Score was knocked to the ground, bleeding profusely. He was immediately surrounded by teammates and Yankee players.

"I didn't see the ball until it was a foot or two from my face," said Score, who threw with an uninhibited motion in which his body turned his back to the batter. Sometimes he turned so hard he expected that he might eventually get hit on the back.

"I could feel the blood," said the pitcher, who never lost consciousness. "People were all around me. Rocky must have set a record getting in from right field." Colavito was Score's roommate and best friend. They had come up through the minor leagues together.

In his first two years in the majors, Score struck out 508 batters while allowing just 320 hits. He pitched into the 1962 season but without the great results.

At the end of 1963, Score tried announcing and stayed on for 34 seasons with the Indians. I have no doubt his fans in Cleveland will miss him tremendously.

My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

MLB FanHouse finds a quote from Albert Pujols on the MVP award. In 2006 Pujols said:

"I see it this way: Someone who doesn't take his team to the playoffs doesn't deserve to win the MVP," Pujols said in Spanish at a news conference organized by the Dominican Republic's sports ministry.

Of course, new facts may have changed Albert's mind.

David OhNo at Purple Row explains why he likes the Holliday trade with Oakland.

The Padres withdrew their offer to Trevor Hoffman. He came as close a one can imagine to being a life-long Padre, having pitched 28 games for the Marlins in 1993 before joining San Diego. At age 40, he posted his highest ERA since 1995, but still strikes out batters at a high rate and keeps his walks low. It was home runs that did him in in 2008. He'll improve some team's bullpen in 2009.

J.C. Bradbury comments on the latest HGH inannity. His conclusion:

I guess I can't blame MLB. It's the cheapest way to fight a public relations problem--that's all this is. And the sad part is that HGH's prohibition signals to potential users that it works, and the drug has many bad side effects. If anything, the war on growth hormone will do more harm than good. As I have suggested before, the best solution is to legalize it.

I agree.

The BBWAA confers a Cy Young Award on a National League pitcher today. For me it comes down to Johan Santana and Tim Lincecum. Santana led the majors in ERA. Lincecum, however, struck out over 2.5 more batters per nine than Johan, while allowing home runs at half the rate.

Both are extremely deserving, although my guess is Tim's better record will sway voters. Let me point out that a big reason for LIncecum's low ERA, however, came from his six starts against the Padres. He posted an 0.62 ERA in those games.

Santana, on the other hand, pitched the most against the Phillies, five times. His stats against one of the best offensive teams in the league were quite impressive. In other words, the Mets put Johan out for their toughest opponent and he came through.

If I had a ballot, it would be:

1. Johan Santana
2. Tim Lincecum
3. CC Sabathia

Sabathia's short NL season deserves recognition, but it's tough for me to put him ahead of two pitchers who performed extremely well for a whole season in the league. We'll find out the winner at 2 PM EST this afternoon.

Peter Abraham is off to a press conference about the new technology at Yankee Stadium:

The Yankees will be announcing "new fan-facing technologies to be featured at the new Yankee Stadium."

Wow, new faces for fans. I wonder if that hurts?

I hope they mean interfacing technologies. WiFi throughout the stadium, for example, that not only allows you to surf the web but order food, see replays, etc, all from your cellphone.

The Florida Marlins are expected to send Josh Willingham and Scott Olsen to the Washington Nationals today (Tuesday).

The agent for starting pitcher Scott Olsen and outfielder Josh Willingham said Monday they are being traded from the Florida Marlins to the Washington Nationals. Agent Matt Sosnick said a news conference in the Washington area was being planned for Tuesday.

"They've both voiced they're excited for a fresh start. Neither of them has really played for anybody else except the Marlins," Sosnick said in a telephone interview. "They're both trying to process the information."

Willingham is a solid player. He should improve both the OBA and power of the Nationals, although that's not difficult to accomplish given their poor play in 2008. Olson will give the Nationals innings, but it's disconcerting to see his strikeout rate fall for the second year in a row. He struck out 8.3 batter per nine innings in 2006, 5.0 in 2008. Both players qualified for arbitration this season, however, and the Marlins would rather part with good but not great players rather than pay them a lot of money.

These moves, of course, open spots in the outfield and rotation, possibly filled by the two players acquired from Detroit last season, Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin. The Nationals get better, but they're still a long way from contention. Willingham and Olsen are complementary players, not the centerpiece of a championship team.

Update: Does it seem the Marlins have shortened the player life cycle? There are teams, (the Athletics and Braves come to mind) that get as much as they can out of a player during the six years of control, and are then happy to let them walk via free agency and get a draft pick, or trade them just before they walk for prospects. The Marlins are now taking that down to three years. Their philosophy appears to be, pay someone as little as possible for as long as possible, then trade them for prospects. That way, there's always young, cheap talent coming up. Both are predicated on young players being just as good as older veterans. However, the traditional way of handling this (six years) allows teams to capture a player's prime.

In the case of Willingham, the Marlins did just that. He'll be 30 in 2009. So they also managed to get Willingham's prime at an extremely low cost. The Marlins front office really knows how to manage a roster and get a lot for a little.

On this Veterans Day, I'd like to thank all past and present military readers of Baseball Musings for their service. For those who wear the uniform today, I appreciate the dangerous job you do, and hope that each of you comes home safely.

The San Diego Padres promoted three front office personnel:

Winfield was Vice President, so I guess being made Executive Vice President/Senior Adviser is a promotion. Paul DePodesta was Special Assistant of Baseball Operations and Executive Vice President sounds a little more official, but from what I can tell, everybody will be basically doing the same thing.

Yes, I've gotten promotions like that in the past. Same job, same pay different title.

The Probabilistic Model of Range reports continue with rightfielders. First, the team data:

Team Rightfielders PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only

Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Twins	4607	397	374.04	0.086	0.081	106.14
Blue Jays	4215	303	286.97	0.072	0.068	105.58
Giants	4232	392	372.99	0.093	0.088	105.10
Indians	4513	374	358.85	0.083	0.080	104.22
Padres	4419	339	329.60	0.077	0.075	102.85
Phillies	4396	318	310.41	0.072	0.071	102.45
Red Sox	4232	325	318.64	0.077	0.075	102.00
Braves	4383	313	307.02	0.071	0.070	101.95
Rangers	4667	382	375.27	0.082	0.080	101.79
Nationals	4417	353	346.81	0.080	0.079	101.78
Marlins	4338	345	340.25	0.080	0.078	101.40
Cubs	4156	333	329.14	0.080	0.079	101.17
Cardinals	4597	362	360.58	0.079	0.078	100.39
Diamondbacks	4224	269	268.33	0.064	0.064	100.25
Athletics	4285	377	376.50	0.088	0.088	100.13
Mariners	4512	309	310.73	0.068	0.069	99.44
Dodgers	4265	278	279.64	0.065	0.066	99.41
Brewers	4354	316	318.38	0.073	0.073	99.25
Pirates	4683	386	389.32	0.082	0.083	99.15
Royals	4413	334	336.94	0.076	0.076	99.13
Orioles	4540	338	341.58	0.074	0.075	98.95
Mets	4335	356	360.14	0.082	0.083	98.85
Astros	4292	357	365.06	0.083	0.085	97.79
Rays	4264	345	354.99	0.081	0.083	97.19
Reds	4299	327	338.05	0.076	0.079	96.73
Tigers	4536	301	311.48	0.066	0.069	96.64
White Sox	4409	296	308.31	0.067	0.070	96.01
Angels	4374	308	322.64	0.070	0.074	95.46
Yankees	4349	301	316.77	0.069	0.073	95.02
Rockies	4535	249	273.59	0.055	0.060	91.01

It seems rightfielder defense didn't have that much influence on playoff teams. Five of the eight post-season teams finished in the bottom half of the majors. Here's a look at the individuals:

Individual Rightfielder PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only (1000 balls in play)

Player	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Alex Rios	2373	170	156.05	0.072	0.066	108.94
Denard Span	2099	192	176.27	0.091	0.084	108.92
Franklin Gutierrez	2400	224	207.25	0.093	0.086	108.08
Jayson Werth	1964	143	133.49	0.073	0.068	107.12
Randy Winn	3247	309	291.22	0.095	0.090	106.10
Matt Kemp	1391	97	91.48	0.070	0.066	106.04
Endy Chavez	1176	109	103.84	0.093	0.088	104.97
Austin Kearns	2268	187	179.28	0.082	0.079	104.30
Michael Cuddyer	1640	123	118.33	0.075	0.072	103.95
Justin Upton	2531	175	168.66	0.069	0.067	103.76
Kosuke Fukudome	3164	246	240.12	0.078	0.076	102.45
Jeff Francoeur	4016	284	278.05	0.071	0.069	102.14
David Murphy	1279	107	104.84	0.084	0.082	102.06
Ryan Sweeney	1462	136	133.41	0.093	0.091	101.94
Ichiro Suzuki	2491	176	172.83	0.071	0.069	101.83
Mark Teahen	2292	185	181.68	0.081	0.079	101.82
Brian Giles	3845	276	271.51	0.072	0.071	101.65
Jeremy Hermida	3310	266	263.10	0.080	0.079	101.10
J.D. Drew	2658	184	183.15	0.069	0.069	100.47
Gabe Gross	2225	186	185.51	0.084	0.083	100.26
Nick Markakis	4353	329	328.98	0.076	0.076	100.00
Corey Hart	4134	304	305.57	0.074	0.074	99.49
Brad Wilkerson	1428	95	95.58	0.067	0.067	99.39
Ryan Church	2158	180	181.26	0.083	0.084	99.31
Geoff Jenkins	1974	141	142.41	0.071	0.072	99.01
Elijah Dukes	1840	137	138.55	0.074	0.075	98.88
Shin-Soo Choo	1255	89	90.51	0.071	0.072	98.33
Hunter Pence	4112	341	349.04	0.083	0.085	97.70
Emil Brown	1264	112	114.89	0.089	0.091	97.49
Jay Bruce	1777	143	147.07	0.080	0.083	97.23
Jose Guillen	1673	121	124.68	0.072	0.075	97.05
Andre Ethier	2620	171	176.94	0.065	0.068	96.64
Ryan Ludwick	3037	232	240.07	0.076	0.079	96.64
Vladimir Guerrero	2541	180	186.37	0.071	0.073	96.58
Xavier Nady	2497	199	207.14	0.080	0.083	96.07
Magglio Ordonez	3588	220	229.25	0.061	0.064	95.96
Jermaine Dye	3981	266	277.60	0.067	0.070	95.82
Bobby Abreu	3933	271	284.58	0.069	0.072	95.23
Eric Hinske	1001	88	92.73	0.088	0.093	94.90
Ken Griffey Jr.	2257	157	166.16	0.070	0.074	94.48
Gary Matthews Jr.	1013	77	82.08	0.076	0.081	93.81
Brad Hawpe	3645	188	213.67	0.052	0.059	87.99

Denard Span not only improved the Twins leadoff slot, he also did a great job tracking down balls in rightfield. While I'm not surprised to see older players like Ken Griffey and Bobby Abreu near the bottom of the list, I didn't expect to see Gary Matthews, Jr. there.

Ichiro Suzuki also adds some interest. He came out near the top in center, but in the middle in right. It's a bit of a mystery why he does better in center than he does in right.

Peter Abraham posts pictures of the construction crew packing the retired numbers from monumnet park at Yankee Stadium.

Given this list of managerial candidates, the Seattle Mariners appear to be looking for new blood, rather than someone tried and true.

Via Phillies Nation, Sports Illustrated reports the Athletics are close to a deal to land Matt Holliday. That would be an unusual deal for Oakland, trading for an established star. Are they trying to capture the draft picks they would receive when he leaves for free agency? Or, after two losing seasons are they afraid they are going to lose fans if they don't start winning again?

Update: Here's more on the deal:

The A's are working to complete a trade with the Rockies that would bring Matt Holliday to Oakland in exchange for reliever Huston Street, starter Greg Smith and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, major-league sources said Monday.

Smith confirmed Monday that he is flying to Denver for a physical in the next day or two.

"I don't know how official everything is," Smith said. "All I know is I've been called, and I'm flying to Denver probably tomorrow."

He emphasized he does not know any details about other players who might be involved in a deal.

Street is the only sure thing in the deal. Smith was a high strikeout, low walk pitcher in the minors, but a low strikeout, high walk pitcher his rookie season in the majors. Gonzalez put up okay OBA and power numbers in the minors, but very poor number in half a season in the majors. It's better than getting nothing for Holliday, but I really wonder if he wouldn't be worth more at the trading deadline.

Evan Longoria and Geovaney Soto took home Rookie of the Year honors today. Evan won the AL version of the award unanimously, and Soto received 31 of 32 first place votes.

Longoria belted sixty extra-base hits in just three quarters of a season. He also shone defensively as he prevented runs in the field and added runs at the plate, helping the Rays to their first winning season, first division title and first AL pennant. His 2008 seasonal age was just 22, so his ceiling is very high coming off that impressive rookie year. He did a great job justifying the large contract the Rays negotiated with him at the start of the season.

Soto teased Cubs fans with his high OBA in just 18 games in 2007. He lived up to that brief cup of coffee, posting a .364 OBA and a .504 slugging percentage in 2008. He was one of the reasons the Cubs put together one of their best seasons getting on base that I can remember. Like Longoria, Soto also smacked 60 extra-base hits on the season. Soto didn't do a great job of stopping the running game, only stopping 18 of 87 base stealers. The Cubs staff did turn in a low ERA, however, and the catcher should get some credit for that.

It's been fifteen years since a catcher won the prize. Mike Piazza was the last to take home the honor from behind the plate. It should be noted that all the catchers who won the award, starting with Johnny Bench in 1968, went on to excellent careers. In addition to Bench, the award went to Thurman Munson, Carlton Fisk, Benito Santiago and Sandy Alomar. That's good company.

Congratulations to both Evan Longoria and Geovany Soto on their well deserved Rookie of the Year awards!

FIOS signs up for the MLB Network and the extra innings package. Very good. At some point, I assume FIOS wil be available in my area, and I'd really like to have choices in my providers. I'l never go back to cable after years of bad quality and bad service, and I'm not crazy about Verizon, but at least competition might keep prices down.

Preacher Roe passed away Sunday:

Elwin Charles Roe better known as major league baseball pitcher "Preacher" Roe died Sunday night after a battle with colon cancer.

The Ash Flat, Arkansas, native was originally signed by the St. Louis Cardinals but only played one game as a Redbird, before being traded.

Roe's best known for his time with the Brooklyn Dodgers.

Playing along side Jackie Robinson and Duke Snyder in 1951, Roe was named Pitcher of the Year thanks to a record of 22-3.

He was a late bloomer due to World War II, but put together five excellent season for the Dodgers in the late 1940s and early 1950s.

Roe appears to have given himself the nickname at a young age:

Roe got his nickname at about three years of age when his family lived in Wild Cherry. Although Roe has given various versions of how the nickname came about, his response in an interview in the West Plains Gazette is likely the closest to the truth: "I had an uncle that came back from the first World War who hadn't ever seen me. He said, 'What's your name, young man?' And for some reason I said, 'Preacher.'...My mother said maybe it was because I liked the preacher we had at our church so well."

My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

The Baseball Writers announce The Jackie Robinson Award for NL Rookie of the Year this afternoon. Geovany Soto is expected to take home the prize. His batting stats, however, are very close to Joey Votto, and Votto played more. Soto will get a boost from playing catcher. His defensive prowess combined with his good offense made Geovany the top NL catcher in terms of win shares. Votto just can't match the defensive contribution playing first base.

Update: Fixed the last sentence, I meant Votto.

The Cardinals announced they are not pursuing Matt Holliday:

Mozeliak insisted Sunday that discussions involving Colorado Rockies left fielder Matt Holliday have ceased and that "nothing is imminent. That one's not happening -- at all."

Irritated that details of his discussions with Rockies general manager Dan O'Dowd had leaked, Mozeliak did not deny the seriousness of the talks but took exception to momentum assigned them.

"For me to say there were not serious discussions would be inaccurate," Mozeliak said. "But some of the details reported about it were misleading, at the very least. It was never my intention for it to become front-page news."

It appeared the Rockies wanted too many players for Holliday, who may walk at the end of next season to test free agency.

The Blue Jays and Cardinals made a challenge trade at the start of the season, swapping Scott Rolen and Troy Glaus. Defensively, at least, the Blue Jays came out on top. Here are the Probabilistic Model of Range team rankings for third base:

Team Third Basemen PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only

Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Blue Jays	4215	415	392.25	0.098	0.093	105.80
Mariners	4512	403	384.91	0.089	0.085	104.70
Red Sox	4232	440	423.21	0.104	0.100	103.97
Dodgers	4265	427	411.45	0.100	0.096	103.78
Angels	4374	391	377.04	0.089	0.086	103.70
Braves	4383	404	390.88	0.092	0.089	103.36
Rays	4264	420	406.66	0.098	0.095	103.28
Tigers	4536	471	458.72	0.104	0.101	102.68
Brewers	4354	396	387.21	0.091	0.089	102.27
White Sox	4409	463	455.46	0.105	0.103	101.66
Padres	4419	382	376.01	0.086	0.085	101.59
Astros	4292	408	402.20	0.095	0.094	101.44
Athletics	4285	385	380.25	0.090	0.089	101.25
Pirates	4683	445	442.19	0.095	0.094	100.64
Rockies	4535	412	410.31	0.091	0.090	100.41
Nationals	4417	416	415.43	0.094	0.094	100.14
Yankees	4349	379	378.81	0.087	0.087	100.05
Cubs	4156	341	342.34	0.082	0.082	99.61
Mets	4335	374	376.09	0.086	0.087	99.44
Indians	4513	419	423.48	0.093	0.094	98.94
Marlins	4338	370	375.82	0.085	0.087	98.45
Royals	4413	375	386.63	0.085	0.088	96.99
Phillies	4396	411	425.13	0.093	0.097	96.68
Rangers	4667	372	386.02	0.080	0.083	96.37
Diamondbacks	4224	350	363.76	0.083	0.086	96.22
Twins	4607	382	397.09	0.083	0.086	96.20
Cardinals	4597	416	432.51	0.090	0.094	96.18
Giants	4232	338	356.28	0.080	0.084	94.87
Reds	4299	337	356.45	0.078	0.083	94.54
Orioles	4540	421	446.86	0.093	0.098	94.21

I'm impressed that the Braves rank so high. Chipper Jones isn't known for his defense at third, but he played well this season.

Individual Third Baseman PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only (1000 balls in play)

Player	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Chone Figgins	2787	249	230.03	0.089	0.083	108.25
Andy Marte	1849	185	173.47	0.100	0.094	106.64
Evan Longoria	3059	304	286.97	0.099	0.094	105.94
Ian Stewart	1651	160	151.25	0.097	0.092	105.78
Adrian Beltre	3804	338	321.08	0.089	0.084	105.27
Carlos Guillen	2396	246	233.91	0.103	0.098	105.17
Jack Hannahan	2882	267	254.14	0.093	0.088	105.06
Mike Lowell	2717	279	266.51	0.103	0.098	104.69
Geoff Blum	1773	179	171.00	0.101	0.096	104.68
Blake DeWitt	2152	233	223.28	0.108	0.104	104.35
Joe Crede	2492	251	242.47	0.101	0.097	103.52
Bill Hall	2709	238	229.92	0.088	0.085	103.51
Chipper Jones	2981	274	265.13	0.092	0.089	103.34
Scott Rolen	2935	274	267.64	0.093	0.091	102.37
Kevin Kouzmanoff	4179	368	361.20	0.088	0.086	101.88
Alex Rodriguez	3377	297	291.79	0.088	0.086	101.79
Jose Bautista	2478	243	240.95	0.098	0.097	100.85
Greg Dobbs	1000	92	91.52	0.092	0.092	100.53
Ryan Zimmerman	2786	275	273.75	0.099	0.098	100.46
David Wright	4234	367	365.59	0.087	0.086	100.39
Willy Aybar	1048	108	107.77	0.103	0.103	100.21
Andy LaRoche	1573	152	151.71	0.097	0.096	100.19
Juan Uribe	1424	156	157.08	0.110	0.110	99.31
Aramis Ramirez	3664	290	294.47	0.079	0.080	98.48
Edwin Encarnacion	3673	288	295.33	0.078	0.080	97.52
Mike Lamb	1508	117	120.22	0.078	0.080	97.32
Brian Buscher	1564	141	145.30	0.090	0.093	97.04
Jose Castillo	2560	214	220.73	0.084	0.086	96.95
Garrett Atkins	2528	221	228.04	0.087	0.090	96.91
Mark Reynolds	3759	304	315.66	0.081	0.084	96.31
Jorge Cantu	3264	271	281.48	0.083	0.086	96.28
Alex Gordon	3583	316	329.28	0.088	0.092	95.97
Pedro Feliz	2972	280	292.73	0.094