I made a mistake in this post. Macha was not a catcher, but a third baseman. For some reason, I must have just seen his catching career, and not the rest of his fielding career. Sorry for the confusion.

I'm somewhat encouraged by the potential number of free agents this year. One great way for clubs to keep costs down is to have a large supply of players to choose from. There are already over 100 players who have filed, and up to 180 can file this year. And there does appear to be some competition at positions. Just as an example, you have Thome and Olerud at first. Each would improve any number of ML teams. Then you have the "declining but still good" veteran pitchers, including Clemens, Glavine and Maddux. How many of these players remain with their former teams will certainly make a difference, but because there is more than just Bonds and Giambi out there, you might see teams making very good deals for players this winter.

Bruce Allen keeps tabs on what the Boston sports media is writing and talking about. Great if you are a Red Sox, Bruins, Patriots or Celtics fan.

A trend seems to be developing here. Ken Macha is going to manage the A's, and Ned Yost is going to manage the Brewers. Both were catchers with brief major league careers.

Chuck Rosicam has an article at Baseball Library about the large number of managers who are or have been catchers. However, the trend lately has been to hire successful major league catchers. The recent hirings of Macha, Wedge and now Yost seem to be going toward the old trend of career minor league catchers as managers (where's Crash Davis). Again, I'm going to have to do some research on this.

Correction: Ken Macha was not a catcher, but a third baseman. He caught four games in his career, and for some reason, when I looked him up, that's all I saw. Sorry for the confusion.

I'll have to look this up, but I remember when I was younger that Wedge types were prevelent as mangers (minor league catchers with little major league experience). This may turn out to be a very good choice.

The Indians, who began rebuilding midway through last season by trading away some high-priced veterans, had 19 rookies on their roster by the end of the season.

Wedge managed many of them in Buffalo on their way to joining the Indians.

In two seasons, Wedge led the Bisons to a 178-108 record and he was named The Sporting News' minor league manager of the year this past season.

Bill James has pointed out that minor league success often leads to major league success. If this holds true, the Indians could be poised for a quick resurgence, similar to the gains made by the Twins over the last two years. If anyone from Buffalo has watched Wedge manage, I'd be interested in hearing about his tactics.

Last night I really questioned Dusty Baker's strategy of not having a reliever ready to replace Hernandez at the first sign of trouble (See this post and this post and this post). This morning, I was flipping through the channels and came across the 7th game of the 1965 World Series, LA at Minnesota. Jim Kaat is starting for the Twins. The announcers point out that in the first six games, all the winning pitchers recorded complete games. As Kaat is throwing to the first batter, Maury Wills, the TV cameras show that there are two pitchers warming up in the Twins bullpen! Somehow, the Twins knew in 1965 what Baker didn't know yesterday; that even a great starter can break down quickly, and you have to be prepared for it.

I want to be clear on this. I don't think it was a mistake to start Hernandez over Rueter. But I do think it was a huge mistake not the have Rueter ready to go the second Hernandez showed signs of not being right on. And that happened in the first inning. How Baker didn't have someone ready at a moment's notice is beyond me.

Glaus wins the MVP for the series. That makes this my favorite post of the year.

I wonder if Disney is going to display the WS throphy next to their Oscars? :-)

Lofton smacked one, but not deep enough. Erstad catches it for the first out.

In the end, Dusty Baker not being prepared for a Livan Hernandez melt down doomed them. The Angels pitched great, and the Giants bench did not have the firepower to overcome the relievers. Snow and Bell deserve a lot of credit in this series; they performed well above expectations. I don't think Bonds should get the MVP, mostly due to his play in the field yesterday. I'd vote for Glaus.

Still it was a great game, and I'm very happy the Angels won. New blood in the series is great. I feel a bit bad for Bonds; this may have been his last chance to pick up a championship.

Let the hot stove league begin!

Shinjo K's. It's up to Lofton.

Percival's first walk of the post-season to Bell. 1st and 2nd, 1 out, and the best the Giants can do is put up Shinjo. I hope he tries to draw a walk as well.

Snow singles. Giants not dead yet.

Nice to see the Giants are still playing hard. Too bad for them their bullpen didn't pitch like this last night.

In comes Percival, three outs to break 41 years of frustration.

Francisco Rodriguez had great command of the plate, walks Bonds and strikes out three. Percival will need to get three outs in the ninth, and will face Snow, Goodwin and Bell. Giants fans have to hope that Troy suddenly turns into the late Donnie Moore.

Aurilia, Kent and Bonds due up in the 8th. I think Scioscia should bring in Percival there. If you get those three, the rest of the order is pretty easy. Why give those batters the chance to get on vs. a lesser pitcher?

Bell and Lofton drive the outfielders to the wall, but fall just short. Still 4-1 at the 7^th inning stretch.

Great catch by Kent to end the inning. Giants need a run an inning to tie, and you have to assume that three of those outs are going to come vs. Percival. Time is running out on the outs.

I have to disagree with this. If you don't think Reggie can hit, sit him down for Goodwin. Otherwise, you waste a player early. Secondly, I haven't seen anything from Goodwin that makes me think he's any better than Sanders anyway. Giant pinch hitters are now 0 for 15, and Goodwin's K with men on 2^nd and 3^rd squanders a golden opportunity.

Tom Goodwin may have the worst follow through on a swing that I've ever seen.

Heart of the order coming up for the Giants in the 6th. This is where they need to make their move.

Lackey is close to 90 pitches through 5 innings. He may have one more inning in him, but I don't expect much after that. Still he has a good ball-strike count (31 Balls, 55 strikes), and although it will be a short performance, it's a strong one so far.

Great catch by Erstad off Bell. The Angels are playing with every bit of insensity they can muster.

Zerbe comes in, throws strikes (5 of 7 pitches) and gets out of the inning with no more damage. Two batters too late, however. Giants offense has to get to Lackey now.

Garrett Anderson hits one down the right field line to clear the bases. Why wasn't Rueter warmed up? Why wasn't anybody warmed up? It was obvious in the first that Hernandez didn't have his good stuff. Maybe Baker doesn't deserve to come back to SF next year.

Dusty is blowing the World Series right here. There's no way he shouldn't have someone warm at all times. Bases loaded, no one out. It will take a miracle to get out of this.

Eventually, someone gets a big hit after one of those walks. Molina doubles in Spiezio to tie the game at 1.

Sanders Sacfly scores Santiago.

David Eckstein runs into a line double play. I'm flabbergasted. He really misread that ball, and that seems to be unusual for him. I wonder if the crowd noise worked against him and he got deked by a fielder?

Scioscia has Erstad sacrifice. Hernandez can't throw a strike, and he's playing for 1-run. I don't agree with that move.

Get Livan Hernandez out of there now. He walks Eckstein to lead off the game, but it looks like he just doesn't care on the mound. There is no passion behind his pitches.

Seems like all these games start 1-2-3. Lofton was swinging early again. You have Lackey on the mound, going on short rest. I think it would be incumbent on Lofton to take some pitches and try to wear this guy down. Kent and Aurilia did a better job, getting him up to 14 pitches for the inning.

Here's another good description of the effect of the Rally Monkey:

It arrived faster than the formation of Air Force jets in the pre-game flyover and left just as much noise in its wake.

It was an emotional tsunami, a wave that came from out in the Pacific and swept over the World Series. It crept out of the dugout and spilled over the edges of the jampacked stands, as surprising, as shocking as a sudden snowfall in Southern California.

It was thousands of ThunderStix and a handful of late-inning lightning. In other words, the usual.

You might not believe in the rally monkey. But in this October beyond anything in their franchise history or their imaginations, you have to believe in the Angels going bananas.

Fran Blinebury of the Houston Chronicle also gets mega kudos for using the word "penultimate."

It's hard to find news stories dealing with the positivies of the Angles last night. Most of the things I'm finding on the internet focus on the Giants losing, rather than the Angels winning. Here's one that tries from Dave George of the Palm Beach Post:

Where Angels fear to tread? They haven't invented the place yet, at least this side of the World Series' Game 7.

Crushed 16-4 in their farewell appearance at Pac Bell Park, Anaheim's Red Raiders put all that behind them Saturday night in their Southern California monkey house. Put a 5-0 San Francisco lead behind them, too, with home runs by Scott Spiezio and Darin Erstad and a two-run double by Troy Glaus that finally put the cork in the Giants' champagne celebration.

That's the point of this piece by Harry Schulman of the SF Chronicle. Here he is talking about Dunston:

Dunston looked forlorn. At 39, he became the sixth-oldest man to hit his first World Series homer. He had not homered in 147 at-bats. He only hit one in all of 2002, back on April 15 against San Diego's Bobby J. Jones, whose name reverberates in Giants' postseason lore for all the wrong reasons.

So this was a great moment for him and for the team. But someone as experienced as Dunston had to know how fickle this game can be, how tough it would be to snuff out the American League champs.

"Outs get harder," he said. "It's human nature to think what could happen. That's why we've got to stay focused. They've got a good ballclub. Scott Spiezio looks like he's been here 100 years.

"I'm not heartbroken," he said. "We've got a game tomorrow. Hopefully we can keep them quiet and cage that monkey."

Again, the players on the Giants have lost their whole careers. They aren't going to lay down after a tough loss.

Just looking at Mike's Baseball Rants preview of game 6, and he got it pretty much right, although he had the score 6-5 Giants. He thinks that an Angel win last night gives them the series.

Only Baseball Matters is a little upset at the Giants loss last night:

The Giants suffered perhaps the the most disheartening and distressing loss in the history of baseball tonight, losing 6-5 to the Anaheim Angels, who became the first team in the history of the game to win an elimnation game of any kind after trailing by five runs or more.

John is a Giants fan. Of course, Baseball Tonight has only been on the air since 1990, so I guess the 1 game playoff loss the Red Sox suffered in 1978, or the Red Sox 1986 game 6 loss, or the Angels 1986 game 5 loss or any of the other big losses that happened before that show just don't count. :-) Yes, it was a devestating loss. But the Giants are full of grizzled veterans who have lost their entire careers and want to win a World Series badly. I don't think they are going to sulk off to a corner and let the Angels run over them tonight. I think they come back looking for vengence.

Ryan Wilkins has some thoughts on getting new fans involved with game 7:

If anyone reading these words knows somebody who isn't much of a baseball fan, and probably hasn't tuned into a game all year, be a friend and give that person a call. Fill them in on the background of the series, and let them know exactly how significant Sunday evening's game really is. Chances are, if you can get that person to watch Game Seven instead of their usual Sunday-night lineup of "The Sopranos" and "Sex and the City," you're going to get yourself a brand-new fan of the greatest game in the world.

In other words, share the love.

My guess is that ratings will be very big tonight. Seven game series have a way of doing that. I'll also point out that the last 3 game sevens have been dramatic, one run, last AB gems. The Diamondbacks beat the Best Closer in the Game^TM 3-2 in 2001. The Indians and Marlins played a back-and-forth series in 1997, ending with an 11th inning, 3-2 victory, and of course, the classic 1-0, 10 inning complete game shutout by Jack Morris in 1991. And it's all just 12 hours away.

Then the Rally Monkey came out when the Angels got two hits with one out in the seventh inning and Dusty Baker brought in Felix Rodriguez. You have to be at Edison Field to understand the impact of the monkey. I don't want to hear about purists; it's about the fans who created the experience. Of course, the monkey phenomenon began in June of 2000 when the Angels beat ... Robb Nen.

I've noticed in the Anaheim games, I can't hear the announcers. They are very muffled, and there is this huge din in the background, created, I assume, by the ThunderStix. It was there early last night, but disappeared when the Angels weren't doing anything. When Fox came back from commerical after Ortiz was relieved, it was there. I can't imagine how loud it must be in that stadium that you can drown out announcers who have a sound man doing his best to balance things. It seems to have shaken up the Giants pitching staff.

Wow! What a game. This is the kind of game the Autry Angels would lose in the post-season. I can't say enough good things about the Angels hitters tonight, nor enough bad things about the Giants bullpen. We have a game seven, should be wild.

It's hard to believe how bad the Giants bullpen has been tonight. Ortiz put them in the perfect position to win, and they dropped the ball. Giants have three outs to get 1 run, and they'll have Dunston, Lofton and Aurilia trying to set the table for Kent and Bonds in the 9th.

Glaus doubles to put the Angels ahead 6-5. Two questions:

1. Why don't you walk Glaus, who's the most damaging hitter on the team, to set up a force at any base?


2. Was Bonds out of position? He didn't seem deep enough to me.

Nen has 1 two inning save this year.

A blooper by Anderson gives the Angels 2nd and 3rd with no one out. Robb Nen is coming into the game for a potential two inning save. None of the Giants relievers have done the job so far.

Erstad goes deep to make it a 5-4 game. Now the Angels only need one run in six outs. This team is relentless.

Donnelly does his job. Wild to the first batter (walk to Santiago), he struck out two in the inning. The Angels have six outs to get two runs.

Spiezio goes deep to make the score 5-3. Like all good relievers, Felix Rodriguez gives up the starter's runs.

Russ goes 6 1/3 innings, leaves with 2 men on base. More importantly, the bullpen only needs to get 8 outs to give the Giants their first World Series victory since 1954.

Bonds is now 7 for 14 with 6 extra-base hits in the series, to go along with a dozen walks. His OPS is well over 2.000.

I wonder if all the children in the Giants dugout has cut down on the profanity? :-)

Ortiz has gotten through 6 innings. Now Dusty doesn't have to worry about the Fultz's and Witasick's of his bullpen. Three innings left, and he just has to concentrate on this three big bullpen guns, Rodriguez, Worrell and Nen to get the job done.

Bonds takes K-Rod deep leading off the 6th. Maybe they shouldn't pitch to him. :-)

Good job by Lofton, manufacturing a run on his own. Double, stolen base, wild pitch. Giants up 3-0 after the top of the fifth. Let's see if Ortiz can do what Appier couldn't; get through the fifth.

A single, homer and double drives Appier from the game in the 5th. He had thrown 71 pitches. Scioscia can't afford to leave him in longer.

Ryne Sandberg's long time DP buddy gives the Giants a 2-0 lead with his first World Series HR.

Both pitchers have now given up 1 hit each through 4 innings. Aurilia almost got Salmon on a tough play. It would have been the kind of play (if made) that people would talk about as preserving a no-hitter. Giants turn a nice DP afterward to keep the shutout going.

This game is moving right along. That happens when you get good pitching. Maybe I'll be able to get to bed early and take advantage of that extra hour. :-)

Ortiz looking good so far, 10 batters, only 1 walk. His ball-stirke ratio is getting better, too now at 16 balls, 28 strikes.

Twice now Kenny Lofton has let Appier off the hook by putting the first pitch in play. Appier is a nibbler; the leadoff man especially should make him throw a lot of pitches.

Wow. Two strikeouts for Appier in the 2nd inning. Maybe this will be the pitching duel that didn't occur in game 2.

Oritz got through the first with only 11 pitches thrown. However, nearly half (5) of them were balls.

Just in case you weren't watching, Fox put up a graphic that said that Santiago was six for eleven after an intentional walk to Bonds in the post-season. He's six for twelve now, but those still aren't great odds.

They're walking Bonds with a man on first and two out. ARRRRGGGGGGGHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!

Here's an article by Rupert Cornwell on Independent.co.uk directed toward a British audience. He thinks this series has saved baseball and rehabilitated reputations.

ESPN.com is reporting that Newsday is reporting that Bud Selig is angry at the Mets:

Citing an unnamed baseball executive close to the situation, Newsday reported Saturday that the MLB commissioner is mad about how the Mets handled their managerial search and is expected to fine the team $50,000 for the distraction during the Fall Classic.

Can someone explain to me the purpose of the moritorium? Does Bud really think that the World Series is so boring that the Mets hiring a manager is going to make us forget to watch game 6? I thought the whole idea was to generate as much buzz about the game as often as possible. Next thing you know, Bud will want to edit every beat reporter's game summary. Bud, the more talk there is about the game, the more people will be interested in the game. More and more, Bud acts like the Kommisar, not the commissioner.

Sorry to keep bringing this up, but the bunt rolling fair just reminded me of the theme song from the sixties show F-Troop:

The end of the Civil War was near when quite accidentally,

A hero who sneezed abruptly seized retreat and reversed it to victory.

You can see the whole song here. And you can listen to it here.

Sixteen to four is the final. In the middle of game 4, it looked like the Giants were done. Then a lucky bunt turned things around, and a bunch of HR blasts sealed tonight's victory. However, of the last 7 teams to go home trailing 3-2, six have taken the last two games to win the World Series. Game 6 Saturday.

Giants have tied the record for most HR in a World Series. It's 16-4 and officially a blow out. :-)

Jeff Kent seems to have shaken off the Kryptonite and is back to his normal powerful self, as he hits his 2nd HR of the evening.

Dusty needs to keep a better eye on his son. JT Snow almost ran him over at the plate, but instead, picked the child up as he was scoring and got him out of harm's way. Maybe bat boy isn't the best job for a three year old, no matter how cute he is.

I love Ben Weber's intensity. He reminds me of Al Hrabosky.

Kent (HR) and Worrell (1-2-3 inning) get the job done. It's 8-4 Giants going to the bottom of the 7th.

Zerbe makes a great fielding play to hold the runner at third while tagging the batter, Erstad. Doesn't make up for Lofton's poor play, however. Kenny's speed used to let him compensate for mistakes like that, but with age he's lost a couple of steps.

Schmidt started strong, but ran into trouble here in the fifth. Time for the Giants bullpen to earn their World Series shares.

The Angels are one of the most relentless teams I have ever seen.

Glaus doubles to make it 6-3. Eckstein with a hit and some heads up baserunning was in the middle of the rally, also.

Dan Branda writes:

The Mets hiring Art Howe reminds me of when the Mets hired Jeff Torborg because he was successful with the White Sox.

The A's gave away Howe without asking for compensation. Shouldn't the Mets sit down, think, and realize that's because the A's--the smartest organization in baseball--would much rather have Macha as their manager?

Dan Branda

It's funny, it's 6-0, but I don't feel like the lead is safe. And now the Angels have two on with one out in the top of the third.

Maybe Erstad should play Aurilia more toward right. That's twice he had to run a long way to make a catch off the shortstop.

He just said what I wrote in the previous post!

Washburn walks in the third run of the inning. He's given up four walks as the Giants bring up the 9th batter of the inning, but none to Barry Bonds.

Giants need to get Bonds up in 1-2 or bases loaded situations. He delievers a double in the first for a 1-0 Giants lead.

They put three balls in play and got two hits. It will be harder to get the bat on the ball vs. Schmidt which gives the Giants an edge in this game.

ESPN.com is reporting that Piniella is close to signing with Tampa Bay. I found it interesting that some people reported that PIniella was using the DRays to leverage his deal with the Mets. Seems if Lou really wanted to be closer to home, Tampa Bay was the only choice. So maybe he used the Mets to leverage Tampa Bay. :-)

Piniella should help Tampa Bay, if for no other reason than brining in some fans who want to see the native son manage, or see his antics with umpires. Plus, Lou is very good with hitters. Maybe he's what the disappointing Ben Grieve needs.

I just found this article through Jim Baker on ESPN Insider. Bill Madden of the NY Daily News says there are talks to have the Expos play at Fenway next year:

According to a source with knowledge of the discussions, the Expos would play in Fenway for one year while MLB continues to search for a buyer - and a suitable permanent location for them.

Under the discussed deal, MLB would pay the Red Sox rent for the Expos as Fenway tenants. The new Red Sox ownership group, headed by former Yankee limited partner John Henry, is said to be heavily leveraged after paying $700 million for the club and the added Fenway revenue would be an unexpected resource for them.

This makes so much sense, Bud Selig is sure to say no. :-) Although I would feel bad for the people of Montreal. It's really too bad that they haven't had an owner who showed some commitment to making the team work in that city. However, living a couple of hours outside of Boston and having little chance to buy decently priced tickets, I'd welcome the Expos coming to town Vlad peppering the wall sounds like a lot of fun to me.

I was going to criticize this move by the Mets, but Jon Heyman of Newsday does it much better than I could:

Beset by panic and poor taste, the Mets have settled on the worst possible man for an impossible task. Good luck to Art Howe, a nice man with a misleading resume, misguided confidence and almost no chance to succeed as Mets manager.

I guess it shouldn't come as a surprise that the wayward Mets organization found the very man who is most ill-equipped to handle a difficult city and an impossible clubhouse. Howe agreed in principle yesterday on a four-year, $9.4-million contract with the Mets, and I couldn't decide whom to pity, him or the organization that felt glad to take him.

To get away from a boss whom he believed disrespected and underpaid him, Howe dived right into a hornet's nest without insecticide. The only possible result is that he'll get stung. It is only a matter of time.

Reminds me of John McNamara. Nothing terribly wrong with him, but nothing terribly great either. In the right situation (lots of good players) he's fine. But turning a team around, forget it. I don't think Howe will last the season, and Phillips will be gone with him.

They say baseball is a game of inches. Tonight, it was a game of microns. A slow roller that went foul long enough for Troy Glaus to reach down for it, but not long enough to stay foul changed this whole game. Santiago and Kent, who have struggled this series each had RBI, and K-Rod was human, picking up a loss to go with all those wins. We're going to have a game six. This exciting series continues with Schmidt and Washburn tomorrow.

McCarver got that one right. He didn't think Bell should run, he ran, and the Angels got the strike'm out, throw'm out double play. To the ninth, Giants need 3 outs to even the series.

Bell delivers a single to drive in Snow. Giants lead 4-3. I still don't know why Bell isn't batting higher in the order.

Sanders bunted at the ball, instead of just trying to catch it on the bat. Poor execution.

Kirk Rueter pitched a good game. The Angels got hits, but a couple of DP's helped Kirk. Now it's up to the pen and the offense for the Giants.

Gems by Anderson, Erstad and Glaus keep the game tied after 6 innings.

A small mound of dirt or a rock may have changed this series. Lofton's roller down the third base line was foul, but as Glaus went to pick it up, it hit something and rolled back fair. The third intentional walk to Bonds doesn't pay off, as Santiago delivers a single. It's tied at 3.

Benito hits into another bases loaded DP. After such a great LCS, this has to hurt. They'll keep walking Bonds until Benito makes them pay.

Kent lines into the pitcher's glove. Jeff can't buy a hit.

Has Dusty thought of re-flipping Bonds and Kent in the order? Kent's been a huge hole in the middle of the offense. Maybe it's time for Bonds to be on first protecting Kent, rather than Bonds' bat behind protecting Kent. The latter is not working right now.

HR number 7 of this post-season for Glaus. I wonder why the Giants don't walk him? :-) And follow this link to see what I've been thinking about Troy.

Lackey didn't drive in or score a run, but his hit set up the sac-fly that gives the Angels a 1-0 lead. We'll credit him with an assist.

Fails to bunt in his first professional AB, but, like all the Angels, he puts the bat on the ball and gets a hit.

It looks like the Angels are very confident they can get the rest of the Giants lineup out. That's at least the 2nd time they've walked Bonds with men on first and third and basically got out of the jam.

I was suprised that Eckstein was so aggressive in his plate appearance. He looked like he fouled a few balls that were out of the strike zone. The way to get to pitchers like Rueter who work off the plate is to give them a chance to throw balls, then make them come over the plate. The rest of the batters in the first seemed to be willing to do this.

Gordon Edes of the Boston Globe laments the lack of star starting pitching in this series.

Teddy Greenstein of the Chicago Tribune has a excellent summary of last night's game. He's impressed with the Angels offense:

Only one thing helped Giants pitchers save face Tuesday night: the presence of pitcher Ramon Ortiz in the Angels' lineup.

Ortiz was hopeless at the plate, going 0-for-3 and stranding seven baserunners in the second, third and fourth innings.

Not that it mattered. The Anaheim offense was so potent in its 10-4 victory in Game 3 of the World Series, Team Disney could have won using Donald Duck as its No. 9 hitter.

I also like the quote from Erstad:

"We know that no lead's ever safe," said Darin Erstad, who went 3-for-6. "The idea is to pour it on. It's like how a prevent defense in football is not a good thing. I guess you could call it a killer instinct. We understand it's very important to put runs on the board."

They've shown that aggressive style throughout the playoffs. What I love about watching this team is that they know how to hit. So many teams go up and just swing for the fences. The Angels are trying to make contact, and when they do they really drive the ball. Eckstein chokes up on the bat! I never see anyone do that anymore. Get the bat on the ball and good things will happen. I'm glad the Angels are teaching us that again.

A huge win for the Halos. Again, I think they will get to Rueter tomorrow, which will force Dusty to go to the pen early again. I think the Giants have dug themselves into a deep hole here, and I'm not sure they can recover. The offense is going to have to put up a lot of runs, or Rueter is going to have to surprise me tomorrow. Angels fans have to be real happy right now.

Defense costs the Giants a run in the 8th. Eyre wasn't fast enough to cover first on a hard ground ball to Snow, then Eyre makes a bad throw to the plate with the bases loaded and 1 out. 10-4 Angels.

I love it that the SF fans are waving rubber chickens after Bonds is walked on four pitches. There are few situations where rubber chickens fail to make me laugh. :-)

Giants finding their groove in the 5th. Aurilia and Bonds have homered, it's 8-4 Angels. Is it too little too late?

Bonds joins Hank Bauer (1958) as the only players to homer in each of the first three games of a World Series.

Just to be fair, Ortiz has thrown 50% balls and strikes tonight, also. Giants are now down 6 runs, so they are going to have to get to Ortiz quickly to come back. Luckily for the Giants, after 3 innings (although only 26 pitches) K-Rod may not be able to go that long today.

Livan Hernandez last only 3.2 innings. I think the Giants are in big trouble right now. They have to use the bullpen a lot in this game, and they are down 4 runs. Tomorrow, Rueter pitches, and the Angels hit lefties well (.292 during the regular season). If the Angels hold on and win this game, I think the odds of them winning the series go way up. Livan's poor performance may have cost the Giants everything.

The Angels offense is starting to ratchet up. Right now, I show Hernandez with 62 pitches thrown, only 32 for strikes. The Angels are just waiting for their pitch, and as they've shown all through the playoffs, when they get a pitch to hit, they make it count. It's 4-1 Angels.

A rare poor play by David Bell, allows a run to score, and more importantly, fails to get an out. It's 1-1.

Ortiz doesn't get the DP, but he gets two ground balls and only allows 1 run. Luck was on their side.

They're walking Bonds!??!!?? This is very dangerous. Bases loaded, 1 out, the run potential is very high.

Nice strong start from Hernandez. 1-2-3, ten pitches. Low pitch counts will be important from the starters tonight, as some relievers were used extensively on Sunday.

Everyone wants a piece of the action. :-)

Pitchers are saying the WS balls are harder and tighter than regular season balls, according to Jayson Stark. I don't buy it. There was a lot of lousy pitching in game 2, but there was plenty of good pitching, also. (See K-Rod and Percival)

I think this series, along with the settlement of the labor dispute is doing a lot to bring fans back to the game. Tim Keown gives some reasons here. Baseball is fun again.

Percival gets the save, despite giving up a tremendous blast by Bonds. Bonds also ties the record for most post-season HR with 6.

Giants have to be happy with the split, although they have to be disappointed in blowing the lead after fighting back from a 5-0 deficit. Both these offenses are tenacious; it's been an exciting, close series so far, and I expect this to continue. Three games in SF coming up, and I can't wait.

This is the 6th time 20 runs have been scored in a WS game.

Consecutive 2 HR games by Angels players. F-K Rod in line for the win.

I can probably write 3 posts in the time it takes Felix Rodriguez to throw one pitch. What is he waiting for?

They're calling Francisco Rodriguez K-Rod in Anaheim. I've been calling him F-Rod. Maybe we should compromise and call him F-K Rod, and call Felix Rodriguez just F-Rod? :-)

If the Angels can take the lead here and hold on, Francisco Rodriguez would become the youngest pitcher to win a World Series game.

After praising Baker for Zerbe, I have to fault him on the guys who relieved Zerbe. Witasick had a good year, but why not leave him in for more than one batter. Instead, he brings Fultz, his worst relief pitcher, into a game tying situation and Fultz gives up the hit to tie the game. That's actually a situation where I could see going to a closer like pitcher in the 6th.

I like the way Dusty used Zerbe. Instead of trying to play musical relievers, he left him in as long as possible. Now the real bullpen can take over, and they only need to get 10 outs instead of 22.

The use of Lackey by Scioscia is also interesting. I wonder if around 30 pitches was deemed the most he could throw and still be able to start game 4. It was probably Lackey's throwing day, so that may have been the same workout for him.

I thought they were going to call him out. You usually see that on those types of close plays at 2nd. Looked like on the replay he was out, but we can't get a good read on the position of Eckstein's foot.

The walk to Bonds came back to haunt them. That was a situation where you should pitch to the slugger. They walked him and opened up the flood gates.

I don't think putting the tying run on base with one out is a good idea. The worst Bonds could do is tie the game. Now a HR gives the Giants the lead.

First 9 runs by the Giants have now scored on HR. That's a record.

Most consecutive runs scored on HR by a team to start a WS.


Team                 Year   HR   Runs

Giants               2002    6    9

Dodgers              1978    3    6

Royals               1980    3    6

Orioles              1971    3    5

Orioles              1970    4    5

Padres               1998    3    5

Tim Salmon adds to the barrage with a 2-run HR. At this rate, they make break the 29-run one game record the Blue Jays and Phillies set in 1993.

Bell goes deep to center to make it 5-4. All the Giants runs in this series have scored on HR.

Sanders homers again, making the score 5-3. In less than two innings, the two teams have scored more runs than all of last night.

I can't believe Santiago fell for the double steal.

The first four hitters for the Angels have gotten base hits, and they now lead 2-0. Seems this team will get into a groove where every ball in play goes for a base hit.

Analysis by Old Hickory on how the Giants fare against lefties:

Bonds now has hit more home runs (23) against left-handed pitchers in one season than any left-handed hitter in baseball history. But an underestimated thing about the Giants is their overall ability against left-handers. After Aug. 20, they went 9-3 to the end of the regular season against lefties, beating Randy Johnson, Odalis Perez and Al Leiter. And in the postseason they have won games against Tom Glavine, Chuck Finley and now Jarrod Washburn.

It was one weakness the Giants had relative to Anaheim. That weakness appears to be gone now.

The story I always heard was that there were no Angels fans, just transplanted fans of other teams who came out to see their favorite team play the Angels. Yet, in 1986 and 2002, there were Angels fans in the seats making a lot of noise. Disney take note. If you give the fans a good product, they'll come out and watch and buy Thunder Stix and red shirts and rally monkeys. I think this franchise is a steal at $180 million, and some smart person is going to make himself a lot of money.

Susan Slusser of the SF Chronicle looks ahead to tonight's matchup between the Giants and Appier:

Appier is 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA lifetime against the Giants, and Barry Bonds is 4-for-7 with two homers off him.

"That's a small sample," Appier said with a laugh. "And it doesn't include the (1995) All-Star Game -- he grounded back to me. But even on good pitches, he's gotten hits. Last year he hit a good pitch straight up in the air, and it still went out."

Well, Kevin knows a little about statistics but not a lot about physics. Indeed, 4 for 7 is a very small sample. But if Bonds had really hit the ball straight up, it would have come straight down again. So I guess Bonds hit it at an 89 degree angle. :-)

Troy Glaus now has six post-sesaon HR, tying a record set by players as diverse as Lenny Dykstra and Ken Grifey Jr, among others. Of the players with 6, Bernie Williams in 1996 was the only player to accomplish this over 3 series. If the series goes 7, Glaus may shatter this record. Unfortunately, 4 of the 6 HR have come in losses. And they've all been solo shots.

Jim Caple has the perfect analogy for J.T. Snow's catch last night:

If you didn't see first baseman's J.T. Snow's catch in Game 1, don't worry. You will. This one was so good, it not only deserves repeated showings on SportsCenter and ESPN Classic, it ought to be shown on the Cartoon Network, too.

With runners at the corners, one out and San Francisco pitcher Jason Schmidt laboring to protect a 2-1 lead in the fifth inning, Tim Salmon hit a high foul popup down the first base line. As Snow ran under the ball to catch it, he slipped on the artificial surface in front of the dugout and did one of those classic Fred Flintstone flops where he slips on Pebbles' roller skate, flies through the air and lands flat on his back so hard that half of Bedrock shakes. You almost expected to hear Snow holler, "WILMAAAA!!!!"

I actually thought of Bugs Bunny when I saw the play last night, although I couldn't put my finger on it. I got the impression of an outfielder lounging around, eating carrots and reading a magazine while he waited for the ball to come down, but I don't think that happened in a Bugs Bunny baseball cartoon. Maybe someone can help me out on this.

Nen pitches a fine ninth, throws 13 pitches, 11 for strikes.

Just to show how things continue to be evenly matched, the Giants won the first game in both the NLDS and NLCS and went on to win the series. The Angels lost the first game in the ALDS and ALCS, but those were the only two games the Angels had lost in this post-season before tonight. So based on this history, both teams are destined to win the series!

Game 2 tomorrow. Ortiz vs. Appier. Hope it's as good as this one was.

Kennedy, Eckstein and Erstad for the Angels, a combined 4 for 11 in this game.

Nice job by Worrell not giving in to Palmeiro when he fell behind 3-0. Tim battled and got the pop up. However, I would have been real tempted to bring in Nen after the walk.

Great game so far. It's close, good defense, some home runs, a two home run game and the pens are pitching well. We'll see if the rally monkey can work his magic in the 8th.

Adam Kennedy is about to pass Ted for the title of luckiest Kennedy. :-) Angels finally get a hit with runners in scoring position.

Meghan Sheehan of STATS, Inc. tells me that there have been 15 WS games where all the runs scored on HR.

J.T. Snow follows up his defense with some offense, driving the ball the opposite way for a two run HR. Again, Washburn gets into trouble after there are two outs, but this time it costs him. Angels go to the bullpen.

The fall catch by Snow was great. J.T. never lost concentration, and the ball just seemed to stay up there for him. A great recovery. Giants opponents are now 16 for 82 in the playoffs with runners in scoring position, .195.

But he gets himself into trouble after that. It's almost as if the strike out of Bonds made Jarrod a little over confident.

By the way, does anyone else think that Washburn could double for Kiefer Sutherland in "24"?

Both pitchers are keeping the counts decently low. Schmidt 44, 34 strikes. Washburn 46, 31 strikes.

Adam Kennedy is slugging 3.000 over his last 5 AB.

Glaus hits one into the bullpen. If this keeps up, 2002 will go down in history as the solo HR series. :-)

I love the replay of Bonds' HR from the third base side of the plate. You can see how perfect his swing is, and how the pitch was in the perfect place for a batter to hit it. A great example of the excellent hand-eye coordination a hitter needs.

Now the Angels are in trouble. If Sanders can hit in the post-season, any Giant can. :-)

As I've pointed out before, Bonds had a better HR rate vs. lefties this year than righties. I guess he's over his post-season slump.

Schmidt keeps up with Washburn, throwing 9 pitches, 8 for strikes to get the Angels in order in the first. Notice that the Angels did get wood on the ball, except for the third strike to Salmon. This is what makes the Angels so pesky; eventually those batted balls turn into hits.

Impressive inning by Washburn. 1-2-3 with 2 K and a popup. Giants were swinging at some balls out of the strikezone, however. It will be interesting to see if they lay off those pitches as they see more of this pitcher.

to whoever entered a link to the post on win shares leaders at ESPN.com. I've been getting a lot of traffic from that. :-)

Henry Schulman on SFGate.com explores the symbiosis between Barry and Jeff:

Finally, after six years of watching them play together and live together inside the clubhouse, someone was able to peg the symbiosis between Barry Bonds and Jeff Kent.

"They're similar in a lot of ways. They're just different guys," manager Dusty Baker said Friday during the Giants' final workout before today's Series opener. "One's black, one's white, but they're both great ballplayers.

"I equate it to the movie with Sidney Poitier and Tony Curtis ("The Defiant Ones"). Both are handcuffed and one guy (wants to) throw the other guy off the cliff. Then he realizes, 'Oh man, if he goes, I go too.' They end up being cool and partners at the end. This has been quite a transformation for both of them, actually. They're both great ballplayers, and they're both better together than apart."

This reminds me of the relationship Reggie Jackson and Thruman Munson had. They seemed to hate each other, but Reggie was crying in the outfield after the NY fans gave Thurman a 10-minute standing ovation after Bob Sheppard asked for a moment of silence following Munson's death. They were better together, because each drove the other to perform better to get the attention each desired.

Yes, they cover the series down under. They'll be able to watch it first thing in the morning there. Gerard Wright gives the Aussies a taste of how valuable WS tickets can be:

Among the items offered as trade for tickets to these games are Rolling Stones tickets, a Porsche, a Volvo 740 turbo station wagon and a piano.

The enterprising ticket-holder could be set for life, and so, in this case, it may turn out to be.

"I would like to barter (these tickets) for healthy sperm," the advertiser announced. "I am currently trying to get pregnant, and for reasons that are none of your business, I must acquire sperm from a donor.

"If you agree to be a donor, note that the donation will absolutely, positively NOT, be made 'the old-fashioned way'."

This is the sort of advertisement that would warm the heart of your average American guy, who has lived in fear that the nation's pastime is losing its grip on the masses. Sperm donations! Porsches! Who said they've fallen out of love with this game?

My wife has told me I can't apply.

Jim Caple has a nice article on the paths different players took to get to this year's World Series. It also applies to teams, something I've believed for years:

They said that only a handful of teams could reach the World Series. That the Yankees might as well include the Series on its pocket schedule. That the only path to October was through New York City or Atlanta.

They were wrong. There are many ways to October, many paths to the World Series. Here are a few.

I saw this paragraph in an article on ESPN.com about the Brewers hiring Macha:

If Macha doesn't want the job, Melvin will likely select his manager from the five whom he's already interviewed: Brewers coach Cecil Cooper, Yankees coach Willie Randolph, Braves coach Ned Yost and Diamondbacks coach Bob Melvin.

If they hire Bob Melvin, I would expect their first trade to be for Melvin Mora. Maybe they can get Melvin Laird to coach defense. :-)

Man, this is a hard one to call. Usually there's a major difference between the two clubs, some weakness that may be exploitable in the short term. These two teams are really evenly matched.

Consider extra base hits, for example. The Giants led the NL in this category with 535. The Angels also had a decent AL showing with 517 (unlike the Giants, the Angels don't have a pitcher batting nearly every game). But, this power by the batters is balanced on each side by the lack of power allowed by the pitchers. The Giants staff allowed the fewest EXBH in the majors, while the Angels allowed the 2nd fewest in the AL.

What about the DH/Pitcher? Despite have poor pinch hitters during the season (which probably means they won't have a good DH), the Giants pitchers had the 2nd highest BA in the NL. So while the Angels will pick up an offensive advantage at home, the Giants gain it back in Pac Bell.

The Angels play well against LH starters, so Dusty Baker is planning only one start from his left, Rueter. SF has trouble with lefties (compared to the Angels), but Scioscia may only start Washburn twice. And the teams are evenly matched when a RHP starts.

The Giants are excellent base stealers, swiping at a 77.9% clip this year, best in the NL. But the Angels catch stealers at a 39.4% clip, 2nd best in the AL, neutralizing that strength.

The Giants and the Angels have the exact same ground ball to fly ball ratio, 1.01 to 1, the lowest in the majors (ML average is 1.21 to 1). However, the Angels have a higher percentage of their balls put into play go for line drives, 21% to 18%. And most line drives go for hits (79% for the Giants, 76% for the Angels).

The Giants' pitchers are at the low end of getting balls over for strikes. As we know from previous posts, the Angels are very good at putting the ball in play, which proved to be very useful against the Yankees. I wonder if a little more wildness will work to the Giants advantage?

So who wins? I don't know. I think it's going to be close and exciting. The last time the Yankees weren't in the series, 1997, we had two unexpected teams play and they put on a great, close exciting series. I would not be surprised if we had 7 very close games. I'm looking forward to this series. Can't wait for it to start!

I just read Rob Neyer's piece, and he makes great points about the strategy of walking or not walking Bonds. He also concludes:

And given that the best team doesn't win a high percentage of postseason series anyway ... well, I'm still picking the Giants. But I wouldn't bet more than a dollar on my "expertise," because this World Series is up for grabs even more than usual.

I haven't looked at all the little flaws yet, but so far I haven't seen any big flaws that would make one of these teams clearly better than the other.

It's been a busy week at work, but I'll get to this soon. Meanwhile, OnlyBaseballMatters has a look at the series.

Matt Rauseo of FourAces.net writes with these thoughts on my Frank Thomas post:

Hey David.

Thought I would shot you a quick note about your Thomas/Sox blurb.

My thoughts on the Red Sox are as follows. They are very close to being a playoff team. With a little luck they easily could have surpassed CA as the AL wild card. When I say a little luck, that really is exactly what I mean as a .500 record in 1 run games would have done it (though I can't find the numbers at this moment). With that said, it seems evident to me the Red Sox must be risk averse this off-season. They have the core, and they do not need a a lot to go right for them to make the post season, they need things to not go wrong. They are at the close to the top of the success cycle, and with that they need to make moves that are consistent with that placement. Find supporting cogs, where their isn't a lot of projection involved. Much like the Giants did, with Sanders and Bell, not world beaters, but players who you knew what you were going to get from. I liken the situation to that of a person who is 62, and approaching retirement at 65. He has his saving, and he knows what he needs to reach his goal, he just needs to avoid disaster with his funds. So he proceeds to move his money from Growth Funds to Bond Funds. I think this is something that the internet baseball community often overlooks. Which is the issue of risk management.

Matt

It's an interesting idea. I think, in general, successful teams stand pat too often, but that's not what Matt is suggesting here. In fact, he's suggesting moves that are very much in line with the kinds of things Duquette did well; bringing in underappreciated players. I just think at this point Thomas may be in that category.

Dr. Manhattan has some observations on the win shares leader board. I think he's right on about A-Rod and Tejada.

Sean MacLeod is upset about Schilling being picked outstanding pitcher in the NL by the players:

how could they possibly select curt shilling as pitcher of the year? even though bonds clearly was better this year than a-rod, at least I can see how players don't quite understand the value of a .580 OBP and .800 SLG as opposed to 57 HRs and 143 RBIs, but the pitcher decision is ridiculous. shilling is 10th in ERA, a whole run over Johnson, who pitched the same number of innings, struck out 20 more batters, allowed fewer hits and HRs, had one more win and two less losses. how dumb can the players be. at least last year when they gave the award to shilling there was a win discrepancy.

-Sean

I think what happened is that the players voted on Sept. 18. In three starts after that, Schilling gave up 17 ER in 16.1 IP. I think if the players had that information, they would have voted differently, and I suspect the Cy Young voters will take that into account.

I got a couple of responses to this today. Josh Getman and I had this correspondence:

David:

Love the blog. However, you wrote:

"Does anyone think picking up Frank Thomas for $6 million a year wouldn't help the Red Sox, for example?"

A "slugger" who will cost at least twice as much as Brian Daubach, is 4 years older than Daubach, is probably a worse fielder than Daubach and is just as likely (given his radically inconsistent health and performance of late) to underperform Daubach as overperform him? And a potential clubhouse cancer to boot? Please, by all means, bring him on!

By the way, Daubach's clearly not the answer either, but that's another story.

J Getman

To which I replied:

Josh,

Thanks for the comment. I'd be willing to risk $6 million if the odds of his being healthy were good. He's a potential .400 OBA guy, something the Red Sox could use to counter Shea Hillenbrand. And if he is healthy, he'd pound the wall.

The Red Sox clubhouse is cancerous by nature, so I don't think adding Thomas would make it any worse. :-) All in all, I think he's a risk worth taking.

Thanks for reading,

David

To which Josh replied:

I completely agree that the failure to recognize the importance of on-base guys has long haunted the team. I can only hope that the new regime's interest in GM's such as Billy Beane signals the end of this.

However, risking a good chunk of change on the very risky possibility of gaining a .400 OPB guy sounds a lot like the logic that brough us Jose Offerman (who was going to "replace the on base percentage of Mo Vaughn," to paraphrase Duquette). Offerman got hurt, Offerman couldn't field, Offerman declined drastically.

The idea of the "Maybe Big, Maybe Not So" Big Hurt coming to Boston sounds eerily similar.

I'd rather take the same risk of injury and inconsistency on a younger, possibly cheaper Edgardo Alfonzo (move Hillenbrand to 1st).

However, Edward Cossette of Bambino's Curse likes the idea:

"Does anyone think picking up Frank Thomas for $6 million a year wouldn't help the Red Sox, for example? "

Hell, yeah!

Oh, you've got me dreaming little day dreams ...

-- Edw.

Scott Martelle and James Bates write about the value of the Angels and how they don't fit into Disney's plans. What I find interesting is that Disney is now entertaining bids of $180 million for the Angels, down from $300 million a few years ago. I believe when the Orioles were sold in bankruptcy court, they went for around $180 million.

There's a real bear market right now in franchises. Unless it's one of the blue chips (like the Red Sox), you can get into a number of established franchises for under $200 million. And, in the case of the Twins and Angels, good franchises to boot. Start looking under your couch for change, it's time to buy!

It looks like the White Sox are going to invoke the diminished skills clause in Frank Thomas' contract, according to this AP article on ESPN.com:

Thomas' contract calls for him to be paid $9,927,000 in each of the next four seasons, including $3,827,000 deferred with interest. But because he didn't make the All-Star team and isn't going to finish among the top 10 in MVP voting or win a Silver Slugger this season, the White Sox can cut his salary.

They would then have to pay him only $250,000 plus $10,125,000 deferred over 10 years without interest.

Thomas has his choice of accepting this or becoming a free agent.

I think these clauses are a good idea. How often do we see teams get stuck with a big contract for a player who is underperforming? Now the White Sox will be able to take that 10 million a year and use it to improve the team. Meanwhile, a change of scenery might do Thomas good. And there are plenty of teams that could use a slugging first baseman. Does anyone think picking up Frank Thomas for $6 million a year wouldn't help the Red Sox, for example?

According to this AP article on ESPN.com, the Angels may already be concentrating too much on Bonds:

Everywhere the Anaheim Angels go, the question is the same: Pitch to Barry Bonds or walk him?

Listening to the talk Tuesday at Edison Field, it seems the Angels will be playing only against Bonds in the World Series, trying to devise a plan to somehow beat him, 25 on 1.

"The last two seasons, he's had the most incredible seasons in the history of baseball, if you look at all his numbers and all the microstatistics,'' Anaheim manager Mike Scioscia said.

Of course, San Francisco will have 25 players on the roster when the first all wild-card World Series opens Saturday night. But Bonds is the focus, which puts Scott Schoeneweis in the spotlight. Bonds is 1-for-7 against the left-hander with four strikeouts, no walks and no home runs.

"The best-case scenario is to get the guys out before Barry comes up,'' Schoeneweis said.

Schoenewieis has it right. The other hitters are a lot easier to get out than Bonds. Make sure you know how to get them out, and the damage Bonds can do will be minimized. Likewise, the best thing the Giants can do is put men on base in front of Bonds, especially on first base. For a long time I've felt that the best protection for a batter isn't the guy hitting behind you, but the guys on base in front of you.

Jim Henzler of STATS, Inc. was nice enough to send me the top ten lists of leaders for the AL and NL.

American League Win Shares Leaders, 2002


Alex Rodriguez, Tex         35

Jim Thome, Cle              34

Jason Giambi, NYY           34

Miguel Tejada, Oak          32

Bernie Williams, NYY        30

Alfonso Soriano, NYY        30

Manny Ramirez, Bos          29

John Olerud, Sea            27

Nomar Garciaparra, Bos      27

Carlos Delgado, Tor         26

Magglio Ordonez, CWS        26

National League Win Shares Leaders, 2002

Barry Bonds, SF             49

Brian Giles, Pit            32

Albert Pujols, StL          32

Ryan Klesko, SD             31

Chipper Jones, Atl          31

Shawn Green, LA             30

Lance Berkman, Hou          30

Randy Johnson, Ari          29

Jeff Kent, SF               29

Jim Edmonds, StL            29

Bobby Abreu, Phi            29

Vladimir Guerrero, Mon      29

Jose Vidro, Mon             29

American League Pitching Win Shares Leaders, 2002

Barry Zito, Oak           25.2

Tim Hudson, Oak           22.7

Derek Lowe, Bos           21.8

Roy Halladay, Tor         21.0

Pedro Martinez, Bos       20.5

Billy Koch, Oak           18.6

Mark Mulder, Oak          18.5

Paul Byrd, KC             18.2

Jarrod Washburn, Ana      17.6

Mark Buehrle, CWS         16.7

National League Pitching Win Shares Leaders, 2002

Randy Johnson, Ari        28.7

Curt Schilling, Ari       23.7

Byung-Hyun Kim, Ari       19.7

Roy Oswalt, Hou           19.7

Eric Gagne, LA            19.4

Greg Maddux, Atl          19.0

Kevin Millwood, Atl       18.9

Tom Glavine, Atl          18.4

John Smoltz, Atl          17.2

Octavio Dotel, Hou        16.7

You can compare these numbers to the short form win shares here.

Bonds' 49 win shares ties him for 10th for the period 1900-2001 with the 1946 Ted Williams and the 1956 Mickey Mantle. There have been three 47+ seasons since Mantle in 1961. All three of those belong to Barry Bonds. Long form also confirms that Johnson and Zito should win the Cy Young award.

The Mariners are going to release Piniella from the final year of his contract so he can find a job closer to home.

If home is really the reason Piniella is leaving, I don't see why he just doesn't take the Tampa Bay job. New York is close to Tampa Bay only compared to Seattle. According to Rob Neyer in his ESPN chat session last night, Piniella is probably using the Tampa Bay offer to get a better deal from the Mets. I can't imagine someone as competitive as Lou leading a hapless team like the Devil Rays.

If the Division Series didn't salvage Bonds' post-season image, this series certainly has. It's good to see. I would hate to see Bonds end up like Ted Williams (no, not as a corpse in a custody battle), a great hitter who's career was tainted by failure in the post-season.

I'll start posting about the WS matchup tomorrow.

Santiago MVP: Well deserved. His offense and defense were superb, and he made the Cardinals look bad after walking Bonds in the 8th last night. His arm looked as strong as it did in 1990. A fine choice.

I think this series and this game destroyed the opinion that La Russa is a genius. From keeping Rolen to not having the bullpen ready, La Russa made too many mistakes. It's hard to believe this is the same man that managed Oakland so well a decade ago.

That was the first hit with runners in scoring position tonight.

Lofton singles in Bell. Giants win 2-1. I think you have to consider David Bell for MVP. Not many runs or RBI, but he was probably the most consistent hitter. Santiago and Bonds will certainly get consideration, too.

Lofton will bat.

Great game by Morris. St. Louis bringing in the lefty Kline to pitch to Lofton. Will SF PH with a RHB?

Dunston singles. 1st and 2nd, 2 out. Dunston has a good career BA vs. Morris. Lofton is up.

Bell singles. He's had a great series. Dunston up.

Snow flies out deep to left. It's up to Bell.

Martinez pops out. Snow up.

Morris still on the mound for the Cardinals. Ramon Martinez to pinch hit.

Cardinals fail to score. Giants will send a pinch hitter (Sanders?), Snow and Bell to bat in the 9th.

For those keeping score at home, neither team has a hit with runners in scoring position tonight.

Santiago grounds out. 8-9-1 hitters up for St. Louis.

Santiago tried to bunt for a base hit, but it was foul. Runner wasn't going, not a squeeze.

Bonds takes the first pitch deep to left for a sac fly. It's 1-1. Runner from 2nd was also able to tag.

The bases are loaded for Bonds. They have to pitch to him, and the relievers aren't ready yet. St. Louis is trying to delay. Horrible managing.

Kent was in the same situation last time and hit into a DP.

Aurilia follows with a single. McCarver pointed out that no one was warming up at the start of the inning, as if it were a good thing. Somebody better warm up quickly.

Kenny's doing his job, getting on base tonight. Singles with one out in the 8th.

This will be the Giants best chance to score. Dunston, then the top of the lineup.

Matt Morris has only thrown 78 pitches through 7 innings. I think the way he's going there's a good chance of getting a complete game out of him.

Fly ball scores the runner. It's 1-0.

Rodriguez, in for Rueter, threw to third on a bunt, but did not get the runner. You have to get the sure out on a bunt. Now the Cardinals have two changes to score the runner on a fly ball.

Good explanation by a former umpire on the interference play on Santiago. It was obstruction, and Santiago was awarded third base, which was the umpires judgement.
Update: Steve Palermo is the ump giving the explanation.

This is the game of missed opportunities. Cardinals 0 for 6 with RISP, Giants 0 for 5.

With 1st and 2nd after Aurilia is HBP, Kent grounds to Cairo, who steps on third and throws to first. This takes the bat out of Bonds hands, as he's intentionally walked. Santiago gets another chance to shine.

He's swinging away! Hooray!

If Aurilia bunts, I'm going to scream!

Rueter is up to 95 pitches. The Giants can maybe get one more inning out of him. We'll see if Dusty goes to the bullpen early rather than too late.

Looked like it to me. Cairo made contact. Looks like a bad call by the umpire, although I don't think Santiago would have scored.

They pitched to Bonds and got him out. They should do that more often. Still no score, and no hits for the Giants.

Rueter has thrown 69 pitches so far. Giants are likely to go to the bullpen early tonight. Lofton just got hit, perfect game over.

Three more in a row for Morris. Nice to see Rueter hustling down the line on that deflected grounder.

That seems to be a better nickname for Rueter than "Woody." Giants dodge another bullet.

Pujols strikes out. Unbelievable.

Cardinals have 1st and third, middle of the order up. Eventually, if they keep putting runners on, you'd think they would score.

Seems like the real Matt Morris showed up tonight. Two innings, 24 pitches, 15 strikes, no baserunners.

Another out with runners in scoring position. Cardinals are now 3 for 32.

Tino's on the bench vs. the lefty. At least this give La Russa a good lefty bat off the bench.

Interesting change in the lineup for St. Louis. Cairo is batting 2nd, and Renteria has been dropped 6th. La Russa going with short term probablilities here; another managerial mistake.

Rob Neyer and Jim Baker will be chatting during the game tonight. You can get there from Rob's article on the Angels. I might stop by to ask a question or two.

Rick Hummel psycho-analyzes Matt Morris. Here's my favorite paragraph:

"I think being nervous is natural. If you're not nervous, you're not human out there. I'm going to focus on making pitches and keeping the ball down. I know that's what I said last time, too, but I'm serious this time," Morris said, laughing.

I bet St. Louis fans are relieved the only problem in game one was that he wasn't serious.

Rolen will not play tonight. I think it's pretty clear at this point that keeping Rolen on the roster was a big mistake for the Cardinals. They say he may come back by Wednesday, but I doubt:

1. That he will be ready to play


2. That the Cardinals will be playing on Wednesday.

Some baseball blogs are reviewed in the Chicago Tribune. Unfortunately, you have to register to see the article. Thanks to John J Perricone for pointing this out.

Don Amore of the Hartford Courant thinks the Twins future looks bright:

The Twins won 94 games and finished 131/2 games ahead of Chicago in the AL Central. With no one in the division expected to spend aggressively in the off-season, the Twins - with their nucleus of starting pitchers Brad Radke, Eric Milton and Joe Mays - could dominate their division again in 2003.

The new collective bargaining agreement puts contraction on hold through 2006, and nearly all of the Twins' key players are signed long term or are several years from free agency. Their $40 million payroll, ranked 27th among 30 teams, will rise somewhat as players go to arbitration, but their chances of keeping the team together for the next few years are good.

"They're going to be good for a long time," Angels manager Mike Scioscia said. "They played this series as tough as anybody we played all year."

I tend to agree with this. I still think a couple of winning seasons will start bringing the fans back. This is an exciting young team, and as long as Pohlad doesn't try to sell it off to enrich himself, they have a few good years ahead of them.

People will argue that they will never again be successful in that stadium. I'm willing to wait and see.

Mark Camps looks at the ex-Mets factor and other playoff trivia. And there's a trivia question that regular readers of Baseball Musings should be able to answer. :-)

Nen K's Drew on a 3-2 pitch. Great game. Giants in command at 3-1, game 5 tomorrow. Cardinals were 2 for 17 with runners in scoring position, now 3 for 31 in the series.

Nen blows Pujols away. One out to go. It's up to JD Drew.

Only drives in one, however. First and third now, 4-3 game. Giants need a K or a DP.

Giants unable to get two on a slow roller. 2nd and 3rd, with the heart of the lineup coming up for the Cardinals.

Vina singles, 2 on, none out. Nen is really in a save situation now.

That's the 2nd time this series that a Cardinal has reached on a mishandled third strike.

Nen comes in to do his Mighty Mouse impression.

Santiago makes La Russa pay. A two-run HR into the right field stands. Bonds scores, Giants up 4-2.

Walking Bonds with the bases empty and 2 outs. I sure hope this backfires.

Cardinals came into this game 1 for 14 with runners in scoring position. They are 1 for 13 tonight.

I'm sorry, I know he's not a great hitter, but he never bunts, and that was a bad one. Giants get the lead runner.

Snow with a rare defensive lapse. He should have taken that grounder himself. Eyre did not get over to cover in time.

If the Cardinals score in the 8th, do you bring in Isringhausen in the bottom of the 8th to face Aurilia, Kent and Bonds? That's where the save situation would really be happening.

Rodriguez pitches out of the jam in the 7th. The Twins bullpen could learn something from him. :-)

Kennedy did win the ALCS MVP.

Cardinals get out of the 6th. The game is tied at 2.

Snow ties the game with a 2-run double up the left center power alley. And Sanders is coming up, and he's hits White well (5 for 13).

Santiago called out on three taken strikes.

Santiago is 2 for 4 career vs. White.

I still think they should have pitched to him. Let's see if Santiago can deliver. Benes coming out of the game in favor of Rick White.

No lefty ready, Benes must pitch to Bonds. I suppose they might walk him, but that's playing with fire.

Heart of the order, Aurilia, Kent and Bonds in the 6th. Aurilia K's to start the inning.

Andy Benese has allowed 1 hit through 4 innings. He's thrown 61 pitches, which is a pretty good total. He's struck out 4, which is probably better than you would expect from him.

Very nice turning of the 3-6 GDP by J.T. Snow.

Livan Hernandez has thrown 21 of 29 pitches for strikes, but has no strikeouts. The Cardinals are just putting the bat on the ball, and they are getting hits from that.

Congratulations to the Angels. They've been waiting for this for a long time. They were great in all aspects of the game in this series. A well deserved victory.

Oh, now they're back with one out to go.

This really stinks. Two minutes of commericals, when I could have been watching the Angels win their first pennant ever!

Okay, if they are going to change to another game, let's see the game instead of commericals. They could have shown the first out of the ninth.

Pericval coming on to finish the game. Fox is switching to the Cardinals-Giants game. Fox should take the rest of this game to Fox Sports Network.

Adam Kennedy just got his 2nd hit of the inning, a single. He's 4 for 4 in the game with 3 HR. He was only hitting .100 coming into the game, but the game/series winning 3rd HR of the game may give him the MVP. It's now 13-5. The Angels have scored 10 runs in the 7th.

Chone Figgins just batted after pinch-running earlier in the inning. It's an unusual situation, where the batter bats without having a position on the team. He's not a pinch-hitter or pinch-runner at this point, and he has no position in the field.

For the 2nd time in the post season, Anaheim has scored 8 runs in an inning. And the inning isn't over yet. Twins went from hope to hopeless in less than 1/2 an inning. Bud Selig's probably breathing a sigh of relief; looks like he won't have to present the World Series throphy to the Twins.

have a 2.87 ERA in this series. I think if going in, you told anyone that the Twins starters would do that well, they would have bet on the Twins to win.

This was Santana's 4th game of the series. He had given up two consecutive hits. I was real surprised Gardenhire didn't pull him. Probably figured he had a good lefty-on-lefty matchup, and that Kennedy would bunt anyway.

Angles 8-0 HR lead is now the largest in LCS history.

This may be one of the most unbelievable things I have ever seen. He tries to sacrifice on the first pitch, goes down 0-2, then, against a lefty, hits his third HR of the game to give the Angels a 6-5 lead. In his career, he had 3 HR in 322 AB vs. lefties. The Twins bullpen fails again.

But can the bullpen hold it? Twins bullpen has a 6.75 ERA coming into this game.

Nice throw by Erstad, but the lead footed Pierzynski just beats it. Two-run lead for the Twins.

Wild pitch by F-Rod gives the Twins the lead. I wonder if Scioscia went to the well once too often with Rodriguez.

Kielty is pinch hitting. I wonder, with all the jiggling of the bat that Kielty does, if he's the wise choice against a hard thrower like Rodriguez?

Yes, he was selective, and Rodriguez walked him.

Three straight singles load the bases. Donnelly wasn't fooling anyone. F-Rod is coming on with one out. The Twins could use a long hit here. Will they bat for Rivas? Here's where not having Hocking could really hurt them.

In an otherwise well played series, the bottom of the sixth featured sloppy baserunning by Anaheim. Salmon was caught off third on a ground to the third baseman with 0 out, and Anderson just ran into a KDP to end the inning. Anaheim had a chance to blow the game wide open and blew it.

Angels have now outhomered the Twins 7-0. This would tie the largest difference in the history of the LCS:

Team                 Year   HR  HRA   Diff

Cubs                 1984    9    2    7

Giants               1987    9    2    7

Blue Jays            1992   10    4    6

Giants               1989    8    3    5

Athletics            1988    7    2    5

Indians              1998    9    4    5

Royals               1985    7    2    5

Braves               1997    6    1    5

HRA is HR against. Amazingly, the top two on the list lost the series.

Angels bullpen has been good, but again, the more relievers they use, the more likely the Twins are to run into one who isn't pitching well.

Adam Kennedy just hit his 2nd HR of the game. The broadcast said it was the third 2-HR game of his career. Given that he has 23 career HR in 470 games, I guess you can say they come in bunches for him.

Eight teams have played an LCS without hitting a HR; the last was the Cincinnati Reds in 1995. Only one of those teams won the LCS; the 1990 Athletics.

For a team that hasn't hit a HR in the LCS, the Twins hitters sure do like to admire their long fly balls. Oritz admired his double. Salmon might have thrown him out a 2nd if he had played it off the wall instead of trying for the catch. And Hunter stood at the plate on the pop-up. What if it had been dropped? Disappointing reactions, and I hope Gardenhire is chewing them out.

This article by William Gildea of the Washington Post is a couple of days old, but it's a good story about how Santiago has changed since his car accident.

They certainly are playing like champions. Taking a page out of the Yankees book, holding their own against the starters, and killing the bullpen.

They've score a run in the 9th with 2 out. Keep hope alive!

by Twins pitchers. They could easily be up 3-1 in this series. The offense has collasped. If Anaheim hangs on here (and I have little doubt they will), the Twins will only have a 12.5% chance of coming back and winning the series.

Jackson has now given up in order; a single, a double, an IBB, a triple. I expect Kennedy to homer here.

If you keep using pitchers, eventually you'll find one who stinks. Jackson is not getting the job done. It's now 5-0.

There's a fan in the stands with angel wings on her back. The only problem is they are red, which I think means that she should be in Detroit at a hockey game. :-)

The pitching moves don't work. Romero gives up a hit and another run. It's midnight and the coach is turning into a pumkin.

I really hate it when managers change pitchers every batter for no good reason. Here comes the third pitcher of the inning for the Twins.

Rodriguez continues his post-season domination. He gave up a leadoff bloop double to Mientkiewicz, but then got Mohr and Kielty on strikes, with Pierzynski grounding out in between.

Santana gets out of the jam. Two more chances for the Twins.

Brad hit Molina, Santana will be brought in with the bases loaded and two outs.

It was barely fair, a bloop just inside the right field line. 2-0 Angels.

Troy singles to left to bring in the game's first run.

Garret Anderson pops up. Twins backup looking for the double play.

A throwing error while Erstad tries to steal puts a runner on third with 0 out for Anaheim.

Eckstein lines into a double play. Through 6, Lackey has thrown 66 pitches, 45 for strikes, and Radke has thrown 57 pitches, 44 for strikes.

Angels get the leadoff man on in the bottom of the 6th. Only the 2nd hit off Radke.

Great play on a slow roller behind the mound. Good job reaching the ball and good job making a throw when he was running in the wrong direction.

Seems to be collision day in the outfield. Twice Vina almost collided with an outfielder today, and Mohr just ran into Rivas. Luckily, none of these have resulted in errors.

Eckstein leads off the fourth with a single to right.

Lackey is keeping his pitch count low. Forty-five through 4 innings, 29 strikes.

Current LCS BA's of Twins 1-4 hitters: Jones, .067. Guzman, .231. Koskie, .231. Ortiz, .200.

Radke gets the first nine batters. Thirty-one pitches through 3. I still think it was a big mistake not to get Radke two starts on full rest in this series.

The attempted steal by Pierzynski had to be the worst SB attempt I've ever seen. It was probably a botched hit and run.

Leadoff man reaches in the thrid.

Looks like it's setting up to be another great mound matchup. Twenty-two pitches for Radke, 17 strikes.

Mientkiewicz made him work, but another 1-2-3 inning. Fourteen pitches thrown that inning. If he can keep going at 12 pitches an inning, he'd be able to throw a complete game.

Radke puts down the Angels 1-2-3 with 2 strikeouts. Only 11 pitches for Radke, 8 strikes. Twins starters in this series have thrown a very high percentage of strikes.

I'm sure no one is making off color jokes about these things. :-)

That 6 straight plate apperances for Koskie with a strikeout. He didn't have a clue in this AB.

Lackey was not lacking for anything in that inning. 1-2-3, Retiring the side on 10 pitches.

Sanders flys out to Drew. Isringhausen was very impressive, striking out two and carefully pitching to Bonds. On to Anaheim!

Santiago strikesout. It's up to Sanders.

Isringhausen has great movement on his pitches today.

I'm not surprised at that result.

They haven't announced it, but I wonder if they are delaying the start of the AL game for the end of this one.

Isringhausen to face Kent and Bonds in the bottom of the 9th. Isringhausen has not given up a HR this year. My question is, if Bonds comes up with 1 out and the bases empty, will the Cardinals walk him rather than risk a tying HR?

Sanders K's with the bases loaded. This is Reggie's 8th post-season series. He's done well in two of them, but absolutely horrible in the other 6. With the K, he's now 22 for 122 in the playoffs, a Mendoza like .180 BA. Twice today with the bases loaded he's failed to deliver.

Amazingly, the Cardinals are playing the corners in against Kent. Can't anyone manage?

Will Dusty bunt him to third? :-)

I was on the roof at Fenway Park during the 1999 All-Star game when we had a fly over by jet fighters during the National Anthem. They were so close, I felt I could reach up and touch them. The amazing thing is that you don't hear them until they are by you, and then it's the loudest roar you've ever heard.

Three HR out to left. McCarver showed at the beginning of the game how he prevailing breezes help balls out in left field. Certainly looks like that's having an effect today.

Bonds homers off the lefty. He hit the kayak! Ties the game at 4. Getting a man on first in front of Bonds forces teams to pitch to him. That's another reason not to bunt Aurilia in the first, Bonds just ends up getting walked.

Russ Ortiz doesn't give up many HR. During the regular season, he only gave up 2 HR or more in a game 3 times in 33 starts.

Hard to believe all the runs in this game are earned.

Cardinals take the lead, but continue to fail to get hits with runners in scoring position. They are now 1 for 13 with RISP in this series.

Finley reaches on a K, Lofton misjudges a ball, and the game is tied.

That's the 2nd time Vina almost ran into an outfielder. I wonder if he can't hear because of the crowd noise, or if he's thinks he can't give up on the ball. If it's the 2nd, and he really is backing off at the last 2nd, that's okay.

I'm not used to seeing this from the Cardinals. Vina tried his best to give the Giants some runs, not covering 2nd and almost intefering with Edmonds catching the third out. Too bad Dusty gave an out away.

Kudos to Santiago for busting his butt down the line on the play where Vina didn't cover 2nd. I wonder if he looks at this as his last chance to win a world championship?

Why is Aurilia sacrificing in the first?

A couple of weeks ago I posted a bit about Dr. Carl Morris of Harvard, who had created a new runs formula. Dr. Morris has more information, including a short paper that explains the formula, and a calculator that let's you use it. Dr. Morris is writing a longer paper that will present a proof of his formula, which will be found on the above web site when it's done.

In reading the short paper, I see the gist of his argument, but he makes a lot of simplifying assumptions. This is usually the case when you work with lots of conditional probabilities. I'm also interested in why he only considers the cases of three men reaching base in an inning? I wonder if this really means 3 men reaching at once, since this is the most you can have on base. As I hear more, I'll keep you posted.

Looks like Rolen is still out. Jayson Stark notices something I wrote about the other day:

This lineup misses Scott Rolen. The bench misses Miguel Cairo, who has had to play third base in place of Rolen.

Tony La Russa couldn't afford to pinch-hit for Morris early in Game 1 because of that short bench.

The Cardinals can't afford to fall behind early again. And they shouldn't be too worried about a lefty on the mound. The Giants hit lefties better than righties, and Bonds showed a lot more power against lefties this year. Bonds hit 25 HR in 278 AB vs. righties, but 21 HR in 125 AB vs. lefties! That's a HR every 11.25 AB vs. righties, which is great, but he's almost twice as good vs. lefties, hitting a HR every 5.96 AB!

I give the edge to the Giants in this game, and if that works out, the Cardinals have had it.

Tom Krasovic of the SD Union-Tribune writes about Brian Sabean's ability to trade away the wrong pitchers and keep the right ones. Sabean gives some credit to a reliever from the 1970's:

Yesterday afternoon, Sabean chatted with a long-armed man who sported a handlebar mustache. He is Dick Tidrow, the team's vice president of player personnel. Previously he worked 13 seasons as a major league pitcher.

"In some ways, it starts with Dick," Sabean said.

Dick Tidrow was part of a trade that started to resurrect the Yankees in the 1970's. He came to the Yankees with Chris Chambliss and Cecil Upshaw, and was an important part of their run of success from 1976 to 1978. If he's Sabean's advisor on pitching, he's doing a good job.

Citypages.com has a continuing E-Mail conversation about the LCS between a reporter and his baseball fantasy archrival. Here's the latest installment, and you can check out previous ones by following the links.

Anderson makes a shoe string catch to end the game. Three of the last four games will be started by righties by the Angels. Gardenhire has to do something about his lineup against lefties, however.

The Twins don't have anyone who could pinch hit for Pierzynski?

Troy goes deep. It's 2-1 Angels. Angels have now out-homered the Twins 4-0 in this series.

Twins were very lucky that inning. Good defense by Rivas, poor base running by Figgins, and Garret Anderson just missing a grand slam. We go to the 8th tied.

Figgins is in as a pinch runner, but as far as I can tell, he doesn't know how to run the bases. He didn't score when Rivas had Eckstein's liner go off his glove into center, despite the fact that Figgins was half-way to third when it happened. And just now he didn't score on a wild pitch, even though Eckstein was able to go to 2nd. And now he gets thrown out at the plate on a grounder to 2nd. I'm not sure he was out on the tag, but if he goes straight in with his foot, I think he scores.

First hit by a Twins' lefty this game. Jones doubles to drive in Mohr. Game tied at 1.

Twins lefties are now 0 or 12. The righties are 5 for 14. Poor lineup construction by Gardenhire.

Great pitcher's duel so far. My boxscore has 134 pitches throw, only 36 for balls. That's only 27% of pitches for balls. The AL average this year was 37% balls.

What a great AB. He fouled off pitch after pitch, and with two strikes every pitch he took was a ball. Finally got a pitch he could hit, and singled to right. But that's the Angels. If it's in the strike zone, they'll hit it.

Garret Anderson has always been a decent hitter vs. LHP. And Milton has had trouble with lefties this year. He gave up 15 HR in 559 AB to RHB this year, but 9 HR in only 111 AB to lefties. A match made in heaven for Anaheim.

Through two innings, Washburn has thrown 26 pitches, 22 for strikes..

It's a funny effect. With all the fans in red shirts that match the seats, it actually looks like the stands in Anaheim are partially empty.

It strikes me this would be a better lineup against lefties:

1. Jones


2. Guzman


3. LeCroy


4. Hunter


5. Mohr


6. Lefties...

One of the keys to scoring runs when you don't have a lot of good hitters is to put those hitters together in the lineup (see 1990 Padres). By breaking up the righties with lefties throughout this lineup, I still feel Gardenhire is preventing a long offensive series that would lead to multiple runs.

The battle of the lefties, Milton vs. Washburn. Once again, the Twins have gone with their "dotted with lefties" lineup, which I believe is contributing to their poor showing vs. lefties. I'm guessing Milton does not find paradise tonight.

You can find detailed analysis before each Giants-Cardinals game at Only Baseball Matters. You can check out game 1 here, and game 2 here. When you are at game 1, notice that others are also doing this sort of thing. I encourage you to check out all of them!

It's being reported that Buck Showalter will be hired to manage the Texas Rangers. It's good to see someone who thinks through every facet of the game getting another chance to manage, although Buck's style does seem to grate on people after a while. I found this bit from T.R. Sullivan of the Star-Telegram most enlightening:

Showalter managed the Yankees from 1992-95. They had the best record in the American League in 1994, the year the players' strike wiped out the playoffs and World Series. In 1995, they won the wild card and made their first postseason appearance since 1981. After losing to the Seattle Mariners in the first round of the playoffs, Showalter stepped down to take over the Diamondbacks.

As their manager, he led the Diamondbacks to a division title and a record of 100-62 in 1999, their second year in existence. They dropped to 85-77 and a third-place finish in 2000 and he was replaced by Bob Brenly after the season.

In both cases, the Diamondbacks and the Yankees went on to win the World Series the year after Showalter left. That, more than anything, appealed to Hicks.

It almost strikes me that Buck is being brought in to build the team into contention, then when the Rangers are ready to win, they'll move someone else into the managers chair. That's not all that bad a way to do things. Some managers are better at building than winning. And Buck has shown that he can build a contender.

Update: John J Perricone of Only Baseball Matters points out that Buck didn't leave the Yankees job, he was fired.

The Boston Globe has an article on adding 10,000 seats to Fenway Park. It seems an engineering firm has determined that the existing foundation can support more decks to add that much capacity. I thought this was interesting, however:

Meanwhile, work began this week to add front-row seating at least two rows much like the dugout seats installed before last season that will eventually extend from the box seats down the left-field line around the infield and down the right-field line, adding several hundred choice seats.

This isn't the clearest writing, but I believe it means that they are going to add two rows of seats in front of the current box seats all around the park. Now, Fenway has a pretty small foul area as it is. I've seen a runner from third thrown out on a wild pitch, for example. If they add these rows behind home plate, I suspect that play will increase dramatically. And, of course, a few fewer foul pops being caught should increase offense as well.

Giants go home with a 2-0 lead. Great pitching in this game from Schmidt and Nen. Seems to be a different hitting star every day for the Giants. That's a very good sign.

All those Yankees fans who didn't want to see Tino leave have to be real disappointed. He's now 1 for 18 in the playoffs this year, and certainly should not be batting 5th for the Cardinals.

Giants get another insurance run on a triple by Snow and a squeeze by Martinez. Nen needs three outs for the save.

That's the 2nd time Bonds struck out swinging. He did not have a regular season game this year in which he struck out swinging twice.

Update: The last time Bonds had two swinging strikeouts in a game was 6/26/2001 vs. LA.

I'm not sure that's such a good idea. Schmidt has given them 7 great innings. But he has thrown 107 pitches. Dusty should have someone ready just in case. Dusty has pushed his starters quite a bit this year, but in the playoffs, you have to have all contingencies covered.

David Bell failed to throw out the runner, but his throw was nonetheless impressive for its accuracy. He threw after diving into foul territory.

Rick Aurilia hits his 2nd HR of the game. Again, a low pitch, but that one looked a bit outside.

As you all know, Aurilia went down this year with an elbow injury. Like Glaus in Anaheim, he's underperformed this year. If he's returning to form, that makes the Giants all that much tougher to beat.

Sounds like the Cardinals fans are taunting Lofton. I can't quite make out what they are saying. It would be funny if it were, "Darryl, Darryl!"

I guess Lofton has a better arm than Mickey Rivers. :-)

Williams is looking good pitching to Bonds, getting the rare swinging strikeout for Bonds. Of his 47 K during the regular season, 23 were swinging K's.

Perfect through 2. He's throwing strikes and not too many pitches (16 strikes, 23 pitches).

The Barr-O-Meter is being updated after every AB.

Aurilia's HR was a good example of how it's easy to hit a HR on a low pitch. If you have an uppercut to your swing, a ball going down in the strike zone is going to be in the same plane as the bat being swung. So you get a lot of bat on the ball, and the ball goes a long way. Does anyone remember McGwire ever hitting a high pitch for a HR?

The pitching matchup would appear to favor the Cardinals. Williams has a great home ERA (2.12) while Schmidt has not pitched well on the road this year (5.02, vs. 2.37 at home).

ESPN.com is keeping track of how the Cardinals' pitchers challenge Barry Bonds. It's amusing, and the analysis is excellent. Check it out every day.

Update: Kevin Hood writes me with a different take on the Barr-o-meter:

It's not amusing. It's classless. Questioning the manhood of the Cardinals b/c they aren't pitching to Barry, when every single team in the league has avoided pitching to Barry whenever possible, is punk journalism. Of course, it's not surprising from the goobers at ESPN who can't stop worshipping at the Church of Bonds.

Kevin

Another Update: Jason Grady responds:

I think it is funny. I have no qualms with a pitcher/manager/team doing what is deemed best to win, but these intentional passes are getting ridiculous. So, I have to agree with McCarver (which is not the norm) that if you are not going to give the guy anything close, just throw the four intentional pitches and get the game moving. And don't give me, "But, he might get him fishing." With Bonds? Not a chance.

In addition, these are supposed to be major league pitchers, right? They are the top 1% of talent in the world, but they are afraid to use that talent against Bonds. I have no problem calling the pitchers or LaRussa chicken.

The new Barr-O-Meter is deserved. Kevin's characterization of classless is little extreme. My guess is he's from St. Louis. Classless is considering yourself an ace pitcher in the NLCS opener and throwing four straight fastballs 18" outside. Correction, that's what I would call Gutless, which is why ESPN said Morris had "no balls". To me, that's accurate and funny and I'm not even a Giants fan.

The difference between Bonds' OPS (1.381) and second-place finisher Jim Thome's (1.122) is .259. To go .259 down from Jim Thome is .863. Number 40 is Steve Finley at .869. That's the gap between Bonds and the next best hitter in the majors and why ESPN et al worship at the 'Church of Bonds'.

Many people have grudges against Bonds. They should drop those long enough to enjoy his historical feats and appreciate that they are around to witness them, not complain about the much-deserved coverage he receives. They should also admit to themselves that all these highly talented pitchers are simply afraid, not necessarily pitching smart, so why not call them on it. Barr-O-Meter does.

Jason

Something that wasn't obvious watching the game last night was La Russa's dislike for Lofton. Ray Ratto of the SF Chronicle has the story:

For his part, La Russa tried to link the incident to his Renteria getting hit in the first inning, but soon admitted indirectly to having a history of disapproval for Lofton from their days in the American League.

"It's a trick I've seen him pull before, where you throw the ball inside and he's always reacting like you're trying to hit him," La Russa said. "He's trying to change the way the game is played, and not have anyone pop him inside. It was unnecessary."

He also compares this series to the 1987 series.

A bit of a slugfest, but the Giants get it done. Cardinals fans have to be disappointed in Morris' outing. Giants fans have to be encouraged by Bonds' triple, 2 runs and 2 RBI. Tune in tomorrow, same bat time, same bat channel!

Cardinals coming up in the bottom of the ninth needing four runs to win, three to tie.

Reed did not strike out an Angel tonight. The bullpen struck out 6 in 3 and 2/3 and did not allow a run. It's becoming abundantly clear that if you let the Angels put the ball in play they will beat you.

Percival comes in and strikes out three of the last four Twins. Out to Anaheim with the series tied at 1.

Twins going to the bottom of the ninth needing three.

Worrell strikes out Cairo to end the streak.

Can he keep the hit streak alive?

Scioscia goes to Percival in the 8th with the tieing run at the plate.

Looking at the scrolling play-by-play on my STATS, Inc. account, I see F. Rodriguez is pitching for both the Giants and the Angels. Which one of these will get the nickname, "F-Rod?"

UPI has the story on Trammell becoming Detroit's manager.

I have no idea how he'll do. He was a good hitter and a good shortstop. If he can mold some of the Detroit hitters into his image of getting on base and hitting for power, they'll be okay.

Cairo now has 8 straight hits in the post-season going back to last year. That ties a record set by Reggie Jackson and Billy Hatcher.

Ortiz comes out after 96 pitches. Twins have cut the lead in half.

This is why it's a bad idea to walk Bonds all the time. He's not the only one who can hit home runs. Santiago goes deep to make the score 9-3.

Tim McCarver just said that AL pitchers don't throw at batters as much as NL pitchers do. That seems to go against the conventional wisdom that AL pitchers head hunt more because they don't have to worry about retribution. I just checked hit batter numbers for the two leagues this year, and the AL had 20 fewer hit batters. But there are two fewer teams in the AL. So on a per centage basis, it's 0.99 for the AL, .89 for the NL. So the conventional wisdom seems right, the AL does throw at batters more than the NL.

Looks like it's going to be lopsided wins tonight. Luckily, Lofton started a bench-clearing argument on an inside pitch to make it interesting.

By the way, the Giants pitchers hit the fewest batters in the majors this year, so if a Cardinal gets HBP, you know they meant it.

Miguel Cairo gets another hit. Six for six in the post-season.

He's five-for-five now in the post-season. I wonder how far he'll extend it.

Pitching fine through 4. Averaging 16 pitches per inning, only striking out 2. Minnesota hasn't had an AB yet with men in scoring position.

Now has half a cycle, and has scored half the Giants runs.

The best protection for Bonds is a man on first. He just ripped a hanger into center field to clear the bases with a triple. I think the "Bonds bad in the playoff" meme is dead.

Now La Russa's limited number of pinch hitters can cause problems, because he's going to need to pinch hit for the pitcher each time that position comes to the plate.

Has anyone noticed that Lofton is paying dividends in the post season? The Giants needed a leadoff man, and Lofton did put up a .350 OBA for the Giants, a .416 during the hot streak in September. He had a .391 in the NLDS, and he's been on base in his first two PA tonight, with 2 runs scored. Great trade for the Giants.

Kennedy was picked off, but Spiezio tried to score and knocked the ball out of Pierzynski's glove at the plate. Then Eckstein makes contact and bloops a single. So it goes from an appearent 1 run inning to at least a 3-run inning.

Angels are making contact tonight, and so far it's paying off. Up 2-0 in the 2nd.

Both Rueter and Morris are having trouble finding the plate. Morris threw 26 pitches in the 1st, 18 balls. Reuter threw 20 pitches, 9 balls, neither a good ratio.

If you play for one run, you get one run. Morris was wild, and the Giants giving away an out helped them lose a chance at taking advantage of that wildness. Does Dusty really think that one run is going to win this game?

Note to Dusty Baker: You have 27 outs. Aurilia is one of your better hitters. Why are you using him to bunt? Now you have Lofton at third, and you'll get Bonds walked. C'mon Dusty, go for the big inning!

Has Rick Reed heard of wasting a pitch? Eckstein put the 0-2 in play, and Erstad put the 0-2 pitch out of the park.

The AP reports that Scott Rolen will be on the Cardinals NLCS roster, although he won't be able to play until later in the series. I think this is a risky strategy. The Cardinals are playing with only 24 players, and they will be short a hitter. That may tie La Russa's hands when it comes to pinch hitting in the game. It will be interesting see if Dusty uses his bullpen to take advantage of this weakness.

I wasn't sure who I was going to favor in this series, although I was leaning toward the Cardinals, due to their deeper offense. But I'm going to go with the Giants now. These two teams are very evenly matched, but with a 25-man roster, Dusty has more room to maneuver.

Yogi Berra is quoted as saying, "How can you think and hit at the same time?" Joe Mays seems to have adopted that strategy for pitching, according to this article by Jerry Zgoda.

Malcolm Gladwell wrote an article in the New Yorker a few years ago about choking in sports that talks about thinking too much leading to chocking. So (as he so often is) Yogi was right.

Beautiful curve ball by Guardado freezes Glaus for strike three.

A well pitched game, a except for Guzman's error, well defensed. Mays did not walk a batter, and his defense were able to catch most of what was hit their way. Game 2 tomorrow night.

Why are they worrying about Figgins? Get the batter out!

Ben Weber has a great game face.

It looks like the Twins are planning on bringing in Guardado in the 9th. Mays has thrown 100 pitches but still looks effective. Tough call for Gardenhire, but it looks like he's going with the move that will be least 2nd guessed.

Scioscia goes to the bullpen for his designated, "I can only get one lefty out" pitcher. Schoeneweis is in to face Koskie.

Good to see this. He only threw 8 pitches in the 6th. If he's pitching well, there's no reason to go to anyone else.

Donnelly is in for Appier. The problem with going to the pen early is that manager don't bring in a pitcher to finish out the game. They bring in a pitcher for maybe an inning. The more pitchers you bring in, in my opinion, the more likely you are to find one who's not throwing well. In a tight game like this, that's all you need to lose.

The last play of the top of the 6th shows the difference between the Twins and Yankees defense. Rivas ranges to his left, dives, comes up with the ball and makes a strong throw. I doubt Soriano makes that play.

through 5 innings for Appier. He's been lucky that the Twins are only 1 for 6 with runners in scoring position. Appier has struggled through these five, and again, I don't think he'll be out for the sixth.

Love the name of this one: Ducksnorts.

That was a seven pitch inning for Mays. He's thrown 59 pitches through 5. Appier has improved, but has still thrown 68 pitches through 4. He's gotten his strikes ahead of his balls thrown, however.

That was incredibly bad. Given what the Angels did to the Yankees, you don't want to give Anaheim any extra chances.

Appier has thrown 41 pitches in the first two innings. At this rate, the Angels will be in the bullpen in the 6th.

Appier is not getting his pitches over. Pierzynski was able to get a good pitch to drive for a sac fly. If the Twins can be patient with Appier, they'll have good hitting counts.

If Tori Spelling married Torii Hunter, would their first child be named Toriii?

Good first inning for Mays. A flair hit was erased by a GDP from Salmon. Mays only threw nine pitches to get the three outs.

By the way, do you think Mientkiewicz was a cheer leader in a former life? He certainly has the split down.

In every way, the Angels are the better team, so even without home field I think they should be the favorite. I'm not that happy with a Twins rotation that only give Radke one start, although I suppose you could bring him back for game seven. However, starting Mays in game one may not be that bad an idea. He's the wildest of the Twins pitchers; maybe he can get the Angels to swing at some bad pitches. And the Angels are starting mostly righties, which plays to the Twins strength.

I'm interested in seeing how the Twins defense does against the Angels, since they put a lot of balls in play. The Angels wound up with the best defensive efficiency record (DER) in the league, and the Twins were 4th, so we should see much better defense against the Angels. It will be interesting, when the series is over, to compare DER's of the Twins and Yankees against the Angels.

Still, the only thing the Twins do better than the Angels is hit for power, and that's not by much, and could be attributed to the ballparks. Given the stats, I have to give the Angels the nod in this series.

An excellent column by Rob Neyer today, pointing out that the Braves lack of offense (he faults Cox) has led to their demise in the playoffs over the years. I'm in full agreement. Also, he points out that the underdogs didn't really win all the series.

It's 1987 all over again. Three of the four LCS teams are the same as in 1987. And on CNBC's Squawk Box this morning, they noted that the Twins winning the World Series marked the last two big market bottoms. Go Twins!

I wonder if Bonds will run the bases with "one flap down" if he hits a HR?

Things have changed a bit for the Cardinals. In 1987, the LCS starting outfield of McGee, Colemand and Curt Ford combined for 17 regular season HR. All three outfielder for the Cardinals this year had more than that individually (Pujols 34, Edmonds 28, Drew 18).

Jones hits into a double play, Snow to Aurilia. Bonds finally wins a post-season series. The Giants are moving on to the NLCS.

Yankees and Braves, the perenials, both eliminated from the LCS. Giants at Cardinals starts Wednesday. This is going to be a really fun LCS week.

Nen K's Sheffield swinging.

First and third, no outs. Sheffield up. In the words of Charlie Brown, he can be the hero, or he can be the goat.

Smoltz keeps the Giants relatively quiet, still 3-1. Nen coming in to face the top of the order for the Giants.

Braves are using Smoltz vs. the heart of the SF order in the 8th. Good to see the closer brought into a situation where the best reliever should be pitching.

Pitchers on both sides have been tough tonight. Both teams through 7 innings are one for seven with runners in scoring position. The difference is a sac fly and and a HR for the Giants.

Aurilia strikes out to end the inning. Great pitching by Holmes to keep the game close.

That's sac fly. I know you know he plays for the Giants. :-)

I love it.

Holmes pitches Goodwin perfectly.

Remlinger does not get the job done. He leaves the game with the bases loaded and no outs. This is going to be the inning that makes or breaks the Braves season. Darren Holmes is in to shut the door.

On the other hand, it's the bottom of the sixth, and Cox has gone through most of his pinch hitters. Maybe we'll see Maddux or Glavine swinging the bat later.

I really don't like this strategy. You go with Fultz, who was your worst regular reliever, with 2 on and 1 out, to get one batter. Why? Now they are going to Rodriguez, who is their 2nd worst relief pitcher. C'mon, Dusty. This is the situation where you have to close the door. Bring in someone who can get three or four outs.

Two on, one out in the 6th. Ortiz was a little wild, walking 4 and giving up 4 hits, 2 this inning. He was always able to get out of trouble, however. A real good effort.

Chipper hits it up the middle, but Aurilia grabs it (even with a bad bounce) and forces the runner at 2nd. Still 2-0.

By the way, I miss Ted, Jane, Jimmy and Rosalyn doing the Tomahawk Chop together. First, because a bunch of PC liberals were being disrespectful to Native Americans, and second, because you knew Jimmy was lusting after Jane in his heart. :-)

And Chipper Jones up. Atlanta has to like this situation.

Kevin Millwood pitched five good innings, but he's been lifted for a pinch hitter, Bragg, who reaches first on an error. Atlanta is going to depend on their bullpen the rest of the game. Millwood threw 79 pitches.

I like this. The Giants are winning, and Bonds is at the center of the offense. He just hit his third HR of the series, to the opposite field. I know he's not a likeable character, but I'm happy he's having a good game. This could put a lot of demons to rest.

The two hitters who have been most disappointing in the post season over the years, Bonds and Sanders, combine to put the Giants ahead in the 2nd. Sanders at least has had a couple of good series, even though his post-season BA was under .200 coming into the game.

Andruw Jones just pulled a Jim Rice. The two people in front of him walked. Ortiz was wild. And Andruw swings at the first pitch and pops it up (Rice would have hit into a DP). If the pitcher is wild, give him a chance to continue to be wild. Unless he grooves one down the middle, let him get behind in the count. I think this was bad judgement on Andruw's part.

: I meant to link to this site a while ago, and it just slipped my mind. With the Twins in the LCS, this is a must see site.

ESPN.com has an excellent summary of pitchers going on three days rest in the playoffs.

Steve Bonner writes:

David, I'm bitter about the Yankees getting eliminated in the first round. I think it's obvious that the Yanks ran into a red hot Angels team that had momentum from the opening pitch. But I think what I realized is that although a lot of people like to downplay the intangibles...intangibles are important. Raul Mondesi is grossly overpayed and while his rocket arm may have prevented the Halos from taking a few bases...his lazy pursuit of the fly ball in Game 4 was a huge non-play in my mind.Paul O'Neill would have broken his neck to get to that ball. As good as Soriano is someone needs to tell him that his sloppy defense won't be tolerated. I finally realized that Rob Neyer is right about Jeter being limited defensively, there were two ground balls I think he should have made plays on that went under his glove. I think I can forgive Bernie Williams for letting the ball drop between Soriano and he; because I think he normally makes that play. But the other guys are obviously "hit first" kind of guys. It's obvious to me that the pitching is getting old and maybe a bit predictable but they got zero pick up from the defense. Torre said that Garret Anderson's double took a funny hop on Giambi but I still think Tino would have at least knocked it down. The Yankees, for the first time in recent memory, looked clumsy in the field and their pitching couldn't save them.

All this is to say that I don't care what your payroll is, if you don't have cool collected professionals you won't win in the playoffs. And I also think that the series with Anaheim proves my point about the overstated importance of Rivera. We didn't even see the guy because the starters, middle relievers and defense couldn't hold a lead to save their lives.

What the Yankees did over the last several years was truly special becuase it wasn't about payroll, it was about a team playing all facets of the game extremely well for 5 years straight. I think to blame it on Steinbrenner outspending everyone cheapens tthe unbeliveably consistently excellent play of the team.

Now if you'll excuse me I'm going to go root for Tino Martinez for the rest of the playoffs.

Steve

One common thread that keeps popping up in writings about this Yankee team is Paul O'Neill. I wrote this about the Red Sox needing a Paul O'Neill type. Maybe the Yankees do, too.

Also, this hasn't been said yet, but the Yankees lack of defense has became appearent as the season progressed. I think the Yankees coaching staff needs to be held accountable for this. They let a problem get out of hand, instead of addressing it and making it a point of improvement. At some point, Torre should have realized that they were bad defensively, and started kicking some behinds to get them to improve. He has Willie Randolph there; would it really kill anyone if he made Jeter and Soriano come in an hour early everyday and take ground balls while Randolph coached them? Torre's been a great leader for this team since he took over, but I wonder if he's just getting tired of it, and if some new blood (Paul O'Neill, anyone?) would make a difference.

Jim Caple of ESPN.com write an excellent piece on the Twins victory, and how contraction pulled the team together:

"I didn't want to be split up," said Gold Glove outfielder Torii Hunter, holding a victory champagne bottle as securely as any flyball. "I didn't want to look at all these guys on other teams. I didn't want to see Cristian Guzman on the other team or Doug Mientkiewicz with another team. We all came up together and stuck together.

"During the minors, we lost a lot and learned a lot. We struggled a lot. But everything we went through, we went through together."

In doing so the Twins became such a unified team, Mientkiewicz said they couldn't be any closer "if we were inside the same pair of pants."

Read the whole piece.

Last night I commented to a fellow baseball researcher that "Bud Selig was the evil step-mother, and the Twins were Cinderella." She replied that I was being too kind to Bud. I guess, after reading Jim's article, I should amend that with, "Carl Pohlad is the ugly step-sister."

Glavine walks Santiago with the bases loaded. Glavine has not walked a batter all year with the bases loaded. Santiago walked only 27 times in the regular season, but twice with the bases loaded this year (in about 15 PA). Still I would not have bet that would have been the outcome.

For the second week in a row, the unique hits to this site have gone up by nearly 500. Thanks to everyone who is reading. I'll continue to try to bring you good information.

and Hernandez gets out of the jam.

Hernandez hasn't given up a hit, but he's walked two and hit a batter in the 2nd to load the bases. Glavine is up, a decent hitter for a pitcher.

Bonds came up in the first with the bases loaded. He gave the ball a ride and got a SF to drive in a run.

The Twins not walking batters won't work as well vs. the Angels. The Angels have a much higher batting average than the A's, so if you put the ball over the plate, they'll hit it. Just ask the Yankees pitchers. Luckily for the Twins, Washburn won't be able to start 3 times against them, so they will see 5 games started by right-handed pitchers. The Angels have the third best record in the majors vs. LHSP, so look for Milton and Guardado to have some problems.

Correction: I corrected this to say 3 times above. Sorry about that.

Hocking battles the sun, but catches a foul pop to end the game. Twins vs. the Angles in the LCS! Who would have thunk it?

Twins did not walk a batter today. In the games they won, they walked 3, 1 and 0. In the two games they lost, they walked 4. I'm always glad when a post works out. :-)

With two out, Velarde singles to keep things alive. It's up to Durham now to keep things going.

Guardado has not been effective. He just gave up a three-run HR to Mark Ellis. It's 5-4 with one out in the bottom of the ninth. What a great game this has been.

Guardado coming in to try to take the Twins from contracted to LCS competitors. I'd love to see Bud have to hand the WS throphy to the Twins.

Pierzynski homers off the right-hander. He's had a great series, hitting .438. Score now 4-1 Twins.

That was the most important batter Hawkins ever faced. Nice to see him come through.

ESPN just did a graphic showing that lefties don't have a hit vs. Mulder in this series. Given that, you have to wonder if Gardenhire shouldn't have put all his righties together, rather than breaking them up almost every other hitter with a lefty. It's as if he's put holes all over his lineup, which is one reason that although they have threatened, the Twins haven't scored much.

Radke still hasn't walked a batter.

Update: Sorry, I misheard. The graphic showed stats in this game, not the series. Mulder however, only allowed 1 hit to a lefty in his first start.

Twins had 2nd and 3rd again with less than 2 outs and failed to score. Mulder is bending but not breaking. He's thrown 70 pitches on short rest. My guess is he goes one more inning. I'm not sure how long Howe should play with fire.

I think Cirgarette Smoking Man put something in Mulder's coffee.

I think it's really sad that there are empty seats in Oakland today. I don't know why, but that doesn't stop me from speculating wildly. I wonder if the first round of the playoff is becoming not that big a deal. If you win, you get to play for the pennant. That matters, so why not save your money until then? A's fans have been disappointed in the first round two years in a row. Maybe they're just waiting until the games are meaningful.

Update: Mike Hansen sends this link.

Denny Hocking delivers a single to drive in a run. Hocking is in the lineup because Rivas is hurt, but also because he hits lefties and Mulder well. The move pays off.

Pierzynski pops out to shortstop in shallow left. The runner on third is not able to score.

Howe going for the intentional walk in the 2nd with one out to try to prevent the big inning. Pierzynski up, they are hoping for a DP, but that's tough, even with a slow lefty.

We're in the bottom of the first, and the contrast between both these teams and the Yankees play in the Angels series is amazing. Oakland hit the cutoff man in the first, and prevented a double from becoming a triple. In the bottom of the first, Hocking ranged far to his right to keep a single in the infield, and Hunter made a good running catch on a ball to shallow center.

Jon Miller just said, "There is no tomorrow!" I should count how many times I hear that.

Miguel Cairo's four for four represents the most hits for someone with a 1.000 BA in Division Series play. In fact, it's the best of any post-season series. Ken Boswell in the 1973 WS was 3 for 3, Bobby Brown in 1947 was 3 for 3, and Orel Hershiser in 1988 was 3 for 3.

Pedro Gomez of the Arizona Republic sees the Diamondbacks making moves to become a younger team next year:

Kiss the Diamondbacks as you know them goodbye.

The face of the Diamondbacks will remain intact as long as Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling and Luis Gonzalez remain, just like Atlanta is viewed as unchanged because Tom Glavine, John Smoltz and Greg Maddux remain.

The Diamondbacks' Big Three are all under contract for next season, and there is no reason to believe any of them will be traded.

It's the peripheral players who are likely to change in a big way during the winter months, when general manager Joe Garagiola Jr. will slide under the microscope for close inspection.

Change is inevitable for this franchise, and that's not necessarily a bad thing. The Diamondbacks need to get younger if they are going to remain a consistent contender.

I've thought that the Diamondbacks have been old for a while. Still they've come a long way with their veterans. The question is when do you jettison for youth? In the case of the DBacks, it's after you lose.

I thought the NY Post wouldn't pull any punches. Here's George King's article on game 4:

The latest Yankee dynasty is 3-D, as in definitely done dancing. For an organization that admits anything short of a World Series title is a failure, this season was a baseball disaster.
Playing very uninspired in front of a jazzed Edison Field crowd yesterday, the Yankees stunk. They didn't pitch, field or hit in the clutch and were deservedly ousted from the ALDS by the Angels in a shocking four games thanks to a 9-5 beating that was witnessed by a delirious gathering of 45,067 that serenaded The Bombers with "Go Home, Yankees" late in the game.

"Looking back on the whole series, they wanted it more than we did," Jorge Posada said.

So, after winning the World Series in four of the previous six years and reaching the Fall Classic five times, the Yankees' season is over long before they believed it would be. It's the first time since 1997 the Yankees were booted in the first round.

And they had nobody to blame but themselves. Not only were the Angels better, the AL East champions - how hollow is that? - were putrid.

Most of the articles on the web are about the Yankees losing. The Orange County Register's Cheryl Rosenberg Neubert writes about the Angels winning:

The Angels simply found the best way to defeat a dynasty is to chip away at it with singles and more singles and an occasional blast to the outfield seats. Foul off pitch after pitch. Throw out anything that moves.

That is how New York has won its bucketful of rings. The Angels talked about modeling themselves after the Yankees during spring training. They didn't talk about how to beat them, just how to be like them.

And in the end, they defeated the Yankees at their own game.

I'd say, given how invincible Johnson and Schilling appear, this is quite a shock. For the first time since 1998, two totally different teams will be in the World Series. The Cardinals shut down the 1-4 hitters of the DBacks. They were a combined 6 for 45 with 0 HR, 1 RBI and 3 runs scored. Both the starters and relievers were excellent for the Cardinals; staters had a 2.00 ERA, while the relievers only gave up 1 unearned run. And now the Cardinals have 3 days to rest and recover before the start of the LCS.

Johnson pops out to finish the game. Congrats to the Angels, they played the Yankees perfectly. They put the ball in play against a bad defense, and demolished a good pitching staff. An impressive series.

I like the way the AL is proving that money doesn't always buy championships. Based on opening day, the Angels were 15th in the majors in payroll, the Twins 27th, and the A's 28th. All these teams should be congratulated for showing how to win on a budget, and that the poor cry is really just ineptitude on the part of the management of those teams.

Williams scores, tying run on deck.

1st and 3rd, 2 out. Isn't this what happened in the 1986 World Series?

Bernie singles with 2 out in the 9th.

Yankees need 5 runs with 2 outs.

HR by players with .282 OBA's and .331 slugging percentages just kill you. Lockhart had not homered since July, but he gave the Braves a big lead today with a 3-run HR. I sure Bonds would trade his two solo shots for one of those.

Notice, please, that the Twins only walked one batter in today's game. Even without the error in the 4th that led to 7 team unearned runs, the Twins still win that game on good pitching. Keep the A's off base, and you can beat them. Back to Oakland for game 5.

I think you can sum up today's Yankees-Angels games on two plays in the 5th that went to left field. In the top of the 5th, with men on 2nd and 3rd, Jeter hit a shot to left that Anderson got a good jump on and made a great catch, making a full extension to get the ball. Instead of a big inning, the Yankees had a one-run inning. In the bottom of the inning, Molina hit a ball to left. Rivera turned the wrong way, and by the time he corrected himself, he had no shot at the double.

The Yankees defense has been horrible. It's been getting weaker all season, and as I far as I can see, the Yankees did nothing to address it. Jeter, Soriano and Williams have been especially bad in this series. It's a problem the Yankees are going to have to address. They were able to get away with it to a certain extent because their pitchers struck out a lot of batters, but the Angels don't strike out. It just shows you what putting the ball in play against a poor defense will do for you.

Nick Peters of the Sacremento Bee talks about how the loss Thursday bothered Bonds:

The frustration showed then when he admitted his failure, and he had the same anguished expression around midnight Thursday shortly after he sent a mid-90s John Smoltz heater soaring on a majestic arc into the right-field seats.

The towering drive off the league's best closer elicited gasps of admiration, but Bonds wasn't impressed. A 7-3 loss to the Braves ended the Giants' winning streak and squared the series entering Game 3 today at Pacific Bell Park.

"I don't look for splits; I look for wins," said Bonds, unable to mask his disappointment. His body language suggested defeat, perhaps even a realization the Braves snatched momentum with Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and Kevin Millwood next in line.

Peters also points out that both starters have something to prove:

And it's a daunting task today with Greg Maddux bringing 29 games of postseason experience and 15 consecutive years of at least 15 victories into a start against Jason Schmidt, making his playoff debut.

Both have a score to settle. The last time the Giants faced Maddux in October, he was hammered in two 1989 NLCS starts with the Cubs, yielding a grand slam to Will Clark. With Atlanta, however, he's 10-10 with a 2.79 postseason ERA.

Schmidt once was a prime prospect with the Braves but went 5-6 with a 6.45 ERA combined in 1995 and 1996, and wasn't deemed worthy to remain in the varsity rotation. He has blossomed with the Giants, going 20-11 in 40 starts the last two years, including 7-3 the last two months.

This AP article brings up the possibility of Johnson pitching on short rest, which Brenly rejects:

After losing the first two games of their best-of-five series with World Series co-MVPs Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling pitching, the Diamondbacks send out Miguel Batista to start Game 3 against the St. Louis Cardinals on Saturday night.

"We're not stupid, we understand what we're up against," manager Bob Brenly said Friday. "But we also understand there's nothing more you can do than give your best effort."

Brenly said he didn't consider using Johnson, who was shelled in Game 1, on three days' rest in Game 3. He expressed confidence in Batista, 8-9 with a 4.26 ERA in the regular season.

"Our feeling over the last couple of years is that Randy is much more effective when he's able to maintain his regular routine," Brenly said. "We also feel Curt Schilling is the guy who is best-suited to handle short rest if we do need to bring somebody back to pitch a potential Game 5.

I have to agree with Brenly here. No matter what, you're going to have to pitch Batista in one of the games, so you may as well do it now, and have Johnson and Schilling strong for games 4 and 5 if you win.

Mark Emmert of the Duluth News Tribune compares the current Twins dilemma to the contraction threat:

The good news for the Twins is that, unlike their offseason battle to stave off contraction, this time their fate is in their hands. The bad news is that those hands haven't been nearly as steady as they were during the regular season, when strong defense was a given.

Emmert also points out how good the A's have been in tough environments:

The Twins are facing a 2-1 deficit in the American League Division Series after losing Game 3 6-3 to the Athletics on Friday, despite the spirited backing of 55,932 vocal fans, a Metrodome record for a baseball game.

Much was made of the unique advantage the Twins gain from their loud fans and quirky stadium. But in the past two postseasons, Oakland has played five games in venerable Yankee Stadium -- whose fans have been "Ruthless" since 1933 but ruthless since it opened in 1921. The A's won three of those five playoff games, dodging foreign objects all the while.

So coming into the Metrodome on Friday -- where Twins fans put the din in dingy -- wasn't as daunting as one might have imagined.

I like the Twins chances against Hudson today, they play well against right-handers. The A's are good vs. lefties, but not as good as the Twins vs. righties.

This New York Times article by Tyler Kepner pulls no punches (link requires registration):

The Yankees are having to contend with an Angels team of playoff neophytes who have played the series on their terms.

The Yankees scored six runs in the first three innings, a welcome gift from the rattled Angels starter, Ramon Ortiz, who walked four. The Yankees' offense went dormant after that, and their pitchers were hopeless. They let the lead slip away again.

That is nothing new in this series. The Yankees lost three leads in Game 1 before coming back to win. They blew an eighth-inning lead in their Game 2 loss. Tonight's 6-1 lead in the third inning was gone by the seventh.

The Yankees' vaunted pitching staff is crumbling against an opponent much tougher than people believed.

"Everybody's saying they're scrappy," the Yankees' Robin Ventura said. "They're not scrappy. They're good. They have good at-bats and they just played a great game. They came back and turned it around."

In 26 innings in this series, the Angels have gone down in order just five times, including three against Orlando Hernández in Game 2. They then hit two homers off him. Angels batters flick away so many two-strike pitches, each fan must expect to catch a foul ball.

The Yankees' hallmark is pitching, and the Angels have scoffed at it. Yankee starters have an earned run average of 8.53 in the three games, and none has lasted through the sixth.

Of course, the Angels have been here before. George Vecsey has this take (again, link requires registration):

Every year a segment of the baseball-loving world seeks a new contender, a team that will stand up to the Yankees and all their money.

Despite the morbid history of their own franchise, the Anaheim Angels became the great red hope of this round of the playoffs. They carry the underdog aspirations of all the cities that dare not dream of ever getting into the World Series under baseball's current state of skewed finances.

...

For all their dash, the Angels are a strange team to be carrying so much responsibility. They have a background of raffish inconsistency and abject collapse.

This has nothing to do with the current players, who don't want to hear about the awful events of 1982 and 1986. They are innocent. But the franchise itself has never been able to get to the World Series in its first 41 seasons.

"The Angels are not the Red Sox or the Cubs," said Reginald Martinez Jackson, the noted baseball historian who has been in a lot of places, including Anaheim.

Well, the 1982 Angels weren't the Red Sox, but they had Lynn, Burleson and Baylor, three players who were involved in Red Sox collaspes.

And the Yankees have been here,too:

As Jeter solidified his place in Yankees' lore, the three-time defending World Series champions became the first team ever to win a best-of-five series after losing the first two games at home.

Will history repeat, or are the Angels and Yankees about to write a new chapter?

Yankees pitching is simply bad. During the season they were good at not giving up HR and not walking people. They have only given up 7 BB, but 8 HR have flown out of the park against them. It's up to Wells now, and I have to believe he's going to relish the chance to save the day.

Stanton faced 10 batters tonight, which ties the most he's faced in a game this year. This is the first of those outings, however, in which he pitched badly. Joe Morgan agrees with this post.

Francisco Rodriguez (dare I say, F-Rod?) pitches two perfect innings. No baserunners, and six strikeouts. He looks pretty unhittable. He had 421 K in 317.2 career minor league innings, and only 268 hits allowed.

The Angels come back and tie the game on a Spiezio single. Soriano almost got, but it was just over his glove. The Angels are playing like the Yankees usually do in the playoffs. They don't seem to be intimidated by the Yankee bullpen.

John Lackey pitches three shutout innings, which makes him a better Lackey than anyone ever used by Frank Gorshen or Ceasar Romero in the Batman series. :-)

Jon Miller just reported that Mussina left the game with tightness in his groin. It's a good thing the Yankees have six starting pitchers on their staff.

It's quarter after ten here in the East, 2 hours into the game, and we're in the bottom of the 5th. Just checking, but since 1996, the average time for a playoff game involving the Yankees is 3:27, while for all non-Yankees games is 3:11. They should make the Yankees games start at 7:30.

Adam Kennedy had a big (well, for him) HR surge late in the year. He two in May, but finished with five in August and September combined.

Mike Lee writes to clarify this post:

Mr. Pinto,

My name is Michael Lee and I've been a regular reader of your blog for the past couple of months. As for the comment about Ricardo Rincon and his high ERA - Baseball Prospectus ranks him 4th in "Received Least Help: 10 ML Relievers least bailed out by others (Ranked by Bequeathed Runs Saved)." The link is:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/current/rrereport02.html#leech

That's probably the main culprit for his ERA not being below 3.50. Just to let you know in case you can't sleep at night thinking about it - I know he does. Have a good weekend and continue to write your informative and entertaining blog.

- Mike Lee

Thanks, Mike!

Troy Glaus has 3 HR in this division series, which led me to ask, "Who has the most post-season HRs in Angels history?" I figure Grich or Baylor had 3 or 4. But I was wrong. In two games, Glaus has become the Angel post-season home run king. His three are more than Baylor, Dan Ford and Bob Boone who all had 2 for the Angels.

I don't quite understand why Rincon had a 4.18 ERA this year. All his other stats are really good. He did give up a higher BA with men in scoring position, but it wasn't that bad (.286). I wonder if the people who came on in relief of him did a poor job with inherited runners.

Three of the four A's HR today have come while I was in the bathroom. Coincidence?

I'm listening to the Twins broadcast over the internet, and the fans are so loud you can hardly hear the announcers, and you can tell they are shouting. I have to wonder if the error on the collision by Ellis and Hatteberg was caused by them not being able to hear each other call for the ball.

That's what I get for going to the bathroom. Durham leads off with an inside-the-park home run, followed by an outside-the-park HR by Hatteberg. At least Reed hasn't walked anyone yet. :-)

I didn't think anyone listened to Reggie Jackson anymore, but ESPN.com has an AP article in which Mr. October comments on GM's. He's right on about Willie Randolph. I wonder if he reads this blog?

I had the honor of participating in a Baseball Tonight meeting that Mr. Jackson attended. Let me just say that all those negative things you've heard about Reggie over the years are more true than you could imagine. And finding that out was very disappointing for me. I really liked Reggie as a player, but I have no respect left for the man after that meeting.

This article from the AP via the Topkea-Capital Journal has two important stories; Rolen looks to be seriously hurt, and some radio station in Phoenix called Kile's widow and asked if she had a date for Thursday's playoff game.

Flynn Kile hung up the phone after KUPD-FM radio personality Beau Duran asked her the question in a call to her Phoenix hotel room, The Arizona Republic reported on its Web site Thursday night. It was not immediately clear if the call was broadcast on the station.

If you listen to Beau Duran, stop.

The injury to Rolen is a tough blow to the Cardinals. However, they still have an excellent hitter in Pujols, so I don't think losing Rolen hurts the Cardinals as much as losing Gonzalez hurt the DBacks.

Another defection story. We should offer to move the Expos to Havana in exchage for overthrowing Castro. :-)

Smoltz gave up a HR to Bonds, then struck out the side in the 9th.

All the road teams have to be pretty happy, all returning having temporarily secured home-field advantage. Back to the AL tomorrow, all on ABC family.

Millwood out after 6 innings, 72 pitches. I have to assume Cox is trying to save him for pitching on short rest in game 5.

Through 5 innings, Millwood has 6 strikeouts, no walks, and is averaging 12 pitches per inning. Out of 62 pitches, only 16 have been called balls.

So far, the second base platoon is working for the Braves. Lockhart had 2 walks yesterday, and DeRosa has 2 hits and 2 RBI tonight.

Benito Santiago made a great play on the bunt by Millwood. He waited until the last second to see if the ball would roll foul, then picked it up and made a perfect, extremely strong throw to first. I remember when Santiago first came up, he would pick-off runners at 2nd from his knees. He still has a gun for an arm.

Lopez and Castilla go back-to-back in the 2nd. For a matchup between two teams with excellent pitching staffs, this series is turning out to be a slugfest.

For some reason, I though I had this one in the list. Check out David Levens' blog for info on the A's.

Does it bother anyone else that David Bell is batting 8th? He's a better hitter than both Snow and Santiago. At least if you bat Benito 8th, he'll occasionally get on with an intentional walk. I suppose it might be based on career numbers, but I still think he should be batting higher in the order.

They've won against the two best pitchers in the NL. It's now up to Batista to keep hope alive in Phoenix. The good news is, if Batista can win, the Cards have to face Johnson and Schilling again.

Vina is now 17 for 43 career in the division series after his 4 for 5 today. That .395 average would be 2nd among players with 40 career Division Series AB. Mike Stanley is first at .400, 22 for 55.

La Russa waited for Donnels to be announced as a pinch hitter, then wen to the pen for Isringhausen. Jason has gone the whole year without allowing a HR.

I know it's 407 FT to centerfield at BankOne Ballpark, but for some reason, that outfield looks huge to me. Maybe it's the high centerfield wall.

Update: La Russa tried to get Brenly to use his lefty, but Brenly didn't fall for it. I forgot that Donnels was a lefty.

DBacks need a run or two. They'll have the pitcher's spot, then Womack and Spivey. Womack has a way of being involved in these close games.

Miguel Cairo may get a pyramid erected in his memory after driving in Renteria with the go-ahead run. Cairo had come in to play third in the previous inning on a triple switch when Fassero came in to pitch.

Don't you just hate it when you move your left fielder to third base and he makes an error that leads to an unearned run? Okay, I was eating dinner, and I didn't see the reason for pinch hitting for Rolen. I know he was hit earlier in the game, so I'm assuming his hand was injured.

Update: Rolen was injured on a fielding play in the 7th. I haven't seen an update on his condition.

Great job by Schilling pitching out of a bases loaded jam. Got Edmonds on a wicked splitter. Sutcliffe doesn't think Finley should come out for the 7th. He's thrown 98 pitches and just had to run around the bases.

For a career AL pitcher, Finley did a great job of running from 1st to 3rd. He avoided being hit by the batted ball, then used those long legs to scoot around real quick. Love to see a multi-dimensional player. :-)

What a great pitching matchup so far. Both are striking people out. Doesn't look like Schilling is tipping his pitches today, although Sutcliffe thought he might have on the Drew HR. This may be the only way to beat Schilling when he's on; shut out the offense and get a solo HR.

My source for stats on this wasn't available this morning, so I just wanted to fill in the pieces:

Twins in Playoffs

1987-2002              Home         Road

ERA                    2.84         4.89

Runs/Game               5.6          4.6

If you believe the noise theory, the opposing batters must have a really hard time concentrating at the plate.

This article by Eric Gilmore is a nice summary of the Giants win yesterday. He points out that the Giants aren't a one-man team. Fair enough. Team have been pitching around Bonds all year, trying to neutralize him, and the Giants still won. Maybe the right way to approach the Giants is not to worry about Bonds. Concentrate on getting everyone else out, and Bonds won't be able to do that much damage. I remember a Celtics playoff against the Bucks in the 70's. Their game plan was to let Jabbar score as much as he wanted, but shut down everyone else. It worked. I believe that strategy would also work here, since the Giants are pretty much a two person offense.

Since moving into the HHH Dome, the Twins are 11-1 at home in the playoffs, 6-8 on the road. I hear that the roof acts like a parabolic microphone, concentrating the noise from the crowd down onto the field. Wonder if the A's will play with ear plugs?

Craig Damon respones to my article on run distrbiutions:

I just read your piece on whether the A's vs. Red Sox difference was luck or run differential. While I think there is some validity in the run differential, it certainly cannot come close to closing the huge difference in expected vs actual performance for these two teams.

Yes the A's are more likely to win games where the team has given up 4 or 5 runs. But that difference is extremely slight. The A's win 1 more game out of every 250 that gives up 4 runs and 1 more game out of 200 that they give up 5 runs. Giving the benefit of the doubt that these two pitching efforts make up 2/3 of the games, the A's would win 1 extra game every 2 years. Offsetting this, the Red Sox would win from 1 in 25 to 1 in 60 more of the other games. If they have even distributions of runs surrendered, the Red Sox would have been expected to win MORE games. Boston surrendered only 11 more runs over the course of the season, so the distributions should be very similar.

Because of the unbalance introduced by capping runs surrendered at the low end, but not at the high end, unbalanced pitching would contribute the exact opposite effect, causing the unbalanced team to win more often than otherwise. I have not looked at the distribution of runs, but with the very successful top end of the rotation and the horrible bottom, I would expect the Sox to be much more skewed. Just like a few very high scoring games don't win as many games as more evenly spreading the runs, a few very poor pitching appearances doesn't lose as many games as more evenly spreading the runs.

Hmmm... I think I need to look at this further.

To expand the table, I re-ran all the numbers using your runs scored figures. I agree with the Red Sox percentages, but get slightly different A's percentages. I may be using a slightly different formula than you are.

runs allowed	Sox WP		A's WP
0                1.000           1.000
1                0.955           0.959
2                0.893           0.854
3                0.741           0.729
4                0.588           0.593
5                0.442           0.448
6                0.331           0.315
7                0.240           0.204
8                0.176           0.132
9                0.140           0.090
10               0.103           0.045
11               0.076           0.037

The Red Sox are more likely to win at almost every level and their advantages are far larger.

I decided to quickly run the runs surrendered. I made a slight mistake (the red sox only have 161 games)

runs allowed	Sox distrib	A's distrib
0               17               19
1               16               16
2               23               25
3               26               21
4               18               17
5               16               13
6               10               17
7               11               12
8                9               8
9               11               4
10               2               4
11               0               4
12+              3               2

Combining the two charts gives expected wins (EW)

runs allowed   Sox EW           A's EW

0              17/17            19/19

1              15/16            15/16

2              21/23            21/25

3              19/26            15/21

4              11/18            10/17

5               7/16             6/13

6               3/10              5/17

7               3/11             2/12

8               2/9              1/8

9               2/11             0/4

10              0/2              0/4

11              0/0              0/4

12+             0/3              0/2


total         100/162           94/162

Tthe run distribution based expected record is slightly more realistic than the pythagorean expected record. But only slightly. (If I carried half games in my rounding, it would close up by about another game.) The difference in actual records vs. expected records is still massive and still unaccounted for. Someone else can argue luck vs. choke. It just isn't based on scoring distribution.

I love your blog. You got me sufficiently excited tonight to avoid the work I really need to be doing.

Thanks (I guess :) )

--
Craig A. Damon

Craig is a PHD in computer science. And he's right, the distribution doesn't account for the entire difference. I still think, however, that taking the distribution into account is important, and that win shares use of actual wins as opposed to projected wins is an indirect way of doing that.

I should probably run some random simulations and see how the normal team does against the convex team, and see how the A's do against the Red Sox.

Went to the Aimee Mann concert tonight. She puts on an excellent show. She's been described as Janeane Garafalo in Daryl Hannah's body. If you have a chance to see her, you won't be disappointed.

In the two innings I've seen of the Yankees game, Jeter keeps being less impressive with his defense. Seems if he has to move more than three or four steps to either side, he can't get to a ball. His defensive game is really deteriorating.

Also, the Yankees had the bases loaded in the 8th with 2 out, and Jeter K'd. Not a good night for Derek.

With a 2 RBI single, Glavine is now 6 for 16 in Division Series play, a .375 BA.

Of course, as soon as Russ and I point out the poor firstbasemen playing, Snow doubles in two runs. Then Bell singles him in. 3-0 Giants. Glavine is having 2nd inning, rather than first inning trouble.

Russ Queen writes:

After I finally figured out which Fox affiliate was telecasting the games yesterday (and wasn't that ESPN's crew? Boy, am I baffled), I had a few observations I would like to share with you.

1) "Closer" madness. Once again, an example of a Manager (Scioscia) refusing to use his Closer in the highest of high leverage situations (and if two on and Giambi up isn't a high leverage situation, I don't know what is). Why in the world do Managers refuse to use their best pitchers when it counts the most? If Percival gets out of it and Scisocia doesn't want to use him in the ninth, at least Donnelly or whoever will be facing the relatively easier part of the Yankee lineup in the 9th.

2) Has there ever been a more pathetic (offensive) group of starting first baseman on day one of the expanded playoffs? Velarde for Oakland, Ortiz for Minnesota, Tino for St. Louis, Grace for Arizona (where is Durazo?), Spezio for Anaheim. Only Jason Giambi fits the preferred
mold. I don't know what any of it means except, just maybe, that the
Yankees aren't going to lose.

3) Did Art Howe err in starting Tim Hudson against the Twins in game one, given the Twins record against right-handed starters versus left?

4) Boy, did Walt Jocketty do a great job of building the Cards without having to give up too much? That lineup is just awesome.

Russ Queen

Thanks, Russ, good points all.
1) I think Schoenweiss was there specifically for Giambi. But once Giambi reaches base, however, Pericval should be in.
2) See this post from earlier this year.
3) Yes. Twins are pretty poor vs. LHP. He should have used Hudson once. See my thought here.
4) Yes. Rolen was a huge pickup.

Russ also sent me an addendum:

Hey, and I just thought, as an addendum to the 1st base comment...

Atlanta: Franco?
San Francisco: JT Snow?

Wow.

Correction: Hatteberg actually started for the A's at first yesterday, as Zachary D Manprin points out. Velarde came in after Saenz was injured pinch hitting.

A reader writes:

Every time I see things like "That puts [Bernie Williams] one behind Mantle for the Yankee record." I get frustrated. I think that by including Division Series statistics, we are doing a great disservice to the ballplayers who never got to play in additional postseason series. I think that all postseason statistics should be presented for what they are. How many hits does Derek Jeter have in postseason play if you only include LCS & WS games? How many HRs does Bernie have if you remove the Division Series games? Batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage... all these are relevant comparisons, perhaps even slanted in favor of the old-time ballplayers. Accumulated statistics lose relevance when the number of postseason chances is greater now than ever before. It's like comparing football statistics from the era of 12-game seasons vs. 16-game seasons. Of course you'll get more hits, runs, RBIs, HRs if you play an extra 5 games every year.

-- Barron Sopchak

This is a legitimate argument. My reply to Brarron:

Barron,

Thanks for reading. What you say is very true. Mantle hit his HR in many fewer games. But I'm not trying to decieve anyone. I trust that my readers are as smart as you, and realize the difference between eras.

Take care,

David

I suppose when we do counting stats in the future, it would be helpful to put in an average stat to go with it. For example, if you look at post-season AB/HR, Ruth is best all time at 8.6, while Mantle ranks 13th at 12.78 and Williams isn't in the top 25.

Pujols triples to center, Rolen homers to center. Johnson has only 1 K pitching in the 4th, where's he's now faced 3 batters without getting an out.

This was a typical Yankees post-season win. The starters pitched evenly, but the Yankees bullpen dominated.

Bernie Williams follows up Giambi's single with a three-run HR. It's his 17th post-season HR. That puts him one behind Mantle for the Yankee record.

Giambi pulls the ball against the shift, and gets a hit off Spiezio's glove. Game tied.

Giambi is up with 2 on and 2 out in the bottom of the 8th, trailing by one run.

I'm now listening to the Angels-Yankees and watching the Cardinals-Diamondbacks. So far against Johnson, 4 balls in plays, two runs scored, including an error and a two-run HR by Jim Edmonds.

Maybe this prediction will be true in the post-season. :-)

The shift worked against Giambi this time. He hit the ball to Spiezio, who turned the 353 DP. How rare is this? I looked back to 1987 in the stats database, and found no 353 DP's in the regular season.

I'm not sure who is calling these pitches, but Clemens is throwing pitches in the dirt to a selective hitter like Salmon, and putting pitches up to a hacker like Anderson. Should the "out" pitches to those two have been reversed? If Anderson will swing at almost anything, isn't he the one you want to throw the splitter to?

Anaheim is doing a great job of wearing Clemens down. He's at 93 pitches through 5 innings.

I like David Eckstein. We share the same first name and the same height. He just executed a perfect hit and run, and is two for three tonight. Only a great play by Ventura on a bunt kept him from being perfect.

The Angels had an extreme shift vs. Giambi. Glaus was almost behind 2nd base. Meanwhile, in the outfield, Anderson was over near the line in left, while Erstad was shading toward right. Giambi screwed them up, however, by hitting the ball out of the park. 3-1 Yankees.

Salmon singles past Jeter to tie the game. I think that play is an example of Jeter's lack of range. I think most SS would have had that ball.

An unusual left-field HR for Jeter at Yankee Stadium in the first. Most of his HR at home go the other way; most on the road are pulled. He now has 10 post-season HR in 307 AB, or an AB/HR of 30.7. That's better than his regular season career of 37.5.

Yesterday I suggested you could beat the DBacks by putting the ball in play. A reader writes:

Hey Dave,

You don't beat the D-Backs by not striking out… you beat them by not facing Schilling and RJ (it's one of those lies, damn lies, and statistics things… your causality is off). Unfortunately, not facing Schilling and RJ in the playoffs isn't possible. :-)

Todd Morgan

Okay, I'll buy that argument. Let's see if it's true. The five teams that kept DBacks pitchers K per 9 below 7.0 were the Giants, Dodgers, Mets, Yankees and Indians. How did these five teams do against Schilling and Johnson?

Schilling and Johnson        Vs. 5 Low K        Vs. Others

Games Started                     19               51

Record                          11-4             36-8

Winning Percentage              .733             .818

K per 9                         9.13            12.04

I'll stand by my previous comments.

The Twins came back and won. After traveling home and having dinner, I was listening to Joe Morgran talk about how the Twins were being effective against the A's by throwing strikes. At that point, they had only walked two A's. Joe commented how this was how the Yankees beat the A's, by throwing strikes. The Twins threw 68% of their pitches for strikes. See this post for my take on this.

Koskie hits a 2-run HR to bring the Twins back within 2. Koskie launched one to the wall in the first. Hudson is giving up a lot of hits. With good fielding, the Twins would be winning this game.

Twins let a pop-up drop on the infield, and a run scores from 2nd. Very unlike the Twins defensively in this game.

A's aggressive baserunning leads to the second error of the inning for Minnesota, and two runs for the A's. The Twins had the best fielding percentage in the AL this year.

The mangers keep dropping. Bobby Valentine just got fired. I have mixed feelings about this. When I was in 6th grade, Bobby came to our middle school to be the speaker at father-son night. He seemed like a real nice guy, and that image has always stuck with me. I also think that deep down, he's a real good manager, but his ego gets in the way. It's too bad. With the right attitude, he could have owned NY, much like Torre does now.

The article mentions Chris Chambliss is up for the position. I'd like to see both Chambliss and his former teammate Willie Randolph get a shot at a job. Willie especially has always struck me as a smart ballplayer, and I think he'll be a smart manager.