Hooray. ESPNNews also just said that the bid was $42 million, though I'm pretty sure they're just repeating what Gammons said a few days ago. They better announce how much everyone bid...I really want to know.

Did the Red Sox suddenly turn into the Yankees and vice versa?

MSNBC and ESPN are saying $51.1 million!!!! Great news!!!!!

Christ. Incidentally, this doesn't affect what Boston will do over the rest of the offseason. So settle down Adam. Any word on where this number is coming from? Cuz it's yet to be attributed to official sources. I believe it, I'd just like to hear it from the horse's mouth.

And the Sox shall never claim again to not be able to compete with the Yankees (see B. Abreau 7.06).

Err...I meant the $51MM doesn't affect what Boston does over the rest of the offseason. Signing Matsuzaka obviously does.

I'm gonna defend that again...Boston basically said they wouldn't do what NY does and eat contracts for the sake of a short-term gain. Which is what the Abreu deal was all about. Boston was about to pull the trigger on a different deal, but Philly refused to pay any of Abreu's salary. So instead they went to NY, took a package of inferior prospects, and gave away Abreu and his entire deal. Could Boston have afforded Abreu? Of course. But that wasn't really the point; the point was that they don't want to do things like that anymore.

Is the $51 million subject to different tax laws than salary?

The posting fee does not count towards the luxury tax.

other josh, I don't get why the Sox philosophy is somehow more responsible. And define how a season and a half of Abreu is somehow a short-term gain? You might remember that the Yanks gained a gazillion games on the Yanks after Abreu's acquisition, were able to make up for Sheff's impending departure. It was a clever, well-planned move by Cashman. But I suppose the only intelligent GM in baseball resides on Yawkey Way.

It looks like the Sox outbid their nearest opponent by $20 million. In many universes, that's misreading the market. When Tom Hicks signed A-Rod to that contract, how many bloggers were talking about his strategic maneuvering? People thought he was insane.

Verducci reports the bid is tax-free.

No, Boston did not outbid by $20MM, they outbid by $13MM. Which is still pretty inexcusable and pisses me off. But it was blind; and Boston was right in assuming that other teams would submit ridiculous posts...they apparently just thought it'd be more ridiculous. Besides...there were no available alternatives, and Boston needed a starter. (Barry Zito and Jason Schmidt don't count.)

The trade for Abreu is a fine deal if you want him for a total of $20MM (between 06-07) plus a $2MM buyout. I don't think he's worth that much, and neither did Boston...but he could be. Boston spends big...but $20MM still means more to them then NY. (I'm still taking the stance that this posting fee should be considered in part an investment in Japan...which is different then paying $20MM for a player's salary)

But yeah, that was a great move if Cashman decided Abreu is worth the money, which is a matter up for debate. If he took him because he thought he needed another OF, and that it would be worth overpaying for 07...well, that's what Boston (claims) they won't be doing anymore. And please don't start the debate about what Abreu is worth...I'm really not in the mood...:)

Again, Theo fucked up the bidding, assuming $38MM really is the highest bid. I'm not denying that. But apparently Boston's decided that the best way to build a team is to throw gobs of money at mid-20's starters with ace-potential, whenever they happen to become available, and not at 32 year old bats.

Cashman's a good GM, and Abreu could conceivably earn his pay. But that was still a salary dump by the Phils.

"And define how a season and a half of Abreu is somehow a short-term gain? You might remember that the Yanks gained a gazillion games on the Yanks after Abreu's acquisition, were able to make up for Sheff's impending departure. It was a clever, well-planned move by Cashman."

It was a good move by Cashman, no doubt.

Presumably, the Sox felt that Abreu wasn't worth the $15-$20 million or whatever salary he'll command for the rest of his contract. Or to put it another way, do you think he's worth worth that kind of money? If Trot Nixon was able to stay healthy (and that's a big was), he'd put up similar numbers to today's version of Abreu. (As opposed to 2-3 years ago's version, who was a stud.)

The Yankees didn't really need Abreu; Melky Cabrera was putting up solid offensive numbers, and it's not like Cano wasn't coming back, Giambi wasn't mashing, A-Rod was A-rod, Jeter was Jeter, etc..

What the Yankees needed then is what they still need, starting pitching. Which the Red Sox presumably just got. I'm guessing the Sox feel that it's more worth throwing a ton of money at pitching than at more offense. Which, in the overall scheme of things, make a lot of sense.

So, if the Yankees sign Zito, who do you think goes into the season with a stronger starting pitching staff, the Sox or the Yankees?

good question, Steve. I think you have to give the advantage to the Sox because of Johnson's surgery, but the staffs are close.

I don't even know how to answer whether a player is worth a certain amount. It depends on the context. I think that's what we've learned, especially from the DMat situation. Abreu was a key player in the Yanks 2nd half. He enabled the Yanks to let Sheff and his $13 million go without taking a hit. I love Melky, but he's not a starting right fielder. He's a good fielder, but his hitting does not a corner outfielder make. He's valuable as a fourth outfielder on this team.

Well, PECOTA does projections about player value; I don't know Abreu's off the top of my head.

I'm trying to look at this as unbiased as I can...but if both rotations perform as well as we can realistically expect of them...there's no way NY comes close. Boston's front 4 all have the potential to be No. 1 calibur pitchers. Note I say potential...I know this isn't even approaching the realm of a sure thing. The big difference in my eyes is the quality of the two bullpens; right now, Boston's pretty much blows, and New York also holds the obvious advantage in offense.

'Course, it's not fair to compare them til the off-season is finished. And I also don't think the Yanks sign Zito; I think it's more likely they rely on their offense and pen again, and go after the 2nd tier options like Lilly, Padilla, etc. Zito's gonna cost a looooot of money, and from what I've read, the Mets are the only NY team who've shown a lot of interest thus far.

"Abreu was a key player in the Yanks 2nd half."

Do you really think the Yankees don't win the division without Abreu? The Sox would have imploded due to injuries regardless of whether the Yankees added a player or not. Was Abreu alone worth 5-10 wins vs. Cabrera?

"He enabled the Yanks to let Sheff and his $13 million go without taking a hit. I love Melky, but he's not a starting right fielder. He's a good fielder, but his hitting does not a corner outfielder make. He's valuable as a fourth outfielder on this team."

I agree that Cabrera offensively is more of a CF, but Abreu is getting perilously close to not hitting like a corner outfielder; he only slugged .462 for the season. Yankee stadium's short porch in RF should let him boost his power numbers to previous levels, and he still has a great eye, but you have to be concerned about such a significant dropoff in power and slugging.

Other Josh-
"No, Boston did not outbid by $20MM, they outbid by $13MM. Which is still pretty inexcusable and pisses me off. But it was blind; and Boston was right in assuming that other teams would submit ridiculous posts...they apparently just thought it'd be more ridiculous. Besides...there were no available alternatives, and Boston needed a starter. (Barry Zito and Jason Schmidt don't count.)"

First, the Red Sox will end up paying between $80 and $100 total for one pitcher, who has logged a total of zero major league innings. Boras reportedly wants a 3 year deal in the Oswalt neighborhood (and remember Boras made the gyroball famous, and apparently Matsuzaka doesn't even throw this pitch), so the Red Sox will likely be committing, and this is conservative, $27 million a year. Even if it all doesn't count against luxury tax, that's a heck of a lot.

And Zito and Schmidt don't count? Why not? At least with them, they're known quantities. Japanese pitchers have poor track records as it is. I don't see how this at all ends good for the Red Sox.

hey josh - what is this mystery abreu / sox trade that only you are aware of?

Tim: "The Red Sox could have made a deal for Bobby Abreu, the on-base percentage monster, back in July, but their talks fell apart after they asked the Phillies to assume almost half of Abreu's $15 million salary in 2007. So, for the difference of about $7 million, they could have had Abreu, and at the same time, prevented him from going to the Yankees." Olney's Blog.

It's pretty common knowledge that at the very least, the two sides came close. And Olney's not the only one who's said so...that's just the first quote that came to mind. I also must admit I was guessing on the quality of the prospects, but it seems like a fair guess.

I don't like Zito or Schmidt. In fact, I don't like any of the FA SP's this season because they'll all command way too much money. Schmidt's a 35 year-old NL pitcher; in no way do you know what you're getting if he joins an AL East team. Remember Randy? Yes, Schmidt will cost almost as much. As for Zito...I've read that his fastball is losing velocity, and his peripheral stats have declined for 2 straight seasons. ERA is not the only stat that matters. Further, for the amount of money he'll be paid, along with the duration of the deal he commands, I feel more comfortable with Matsuzaka then I do Barry. He'll probably be solid for a little while...but I don't think he's close to being worth the money.

Just because Boras wants something doesn't mean he'll get it. And Oswalt's deal is a model; there's no way to convince any team that Matsuzaka, who is, as you said, a relatively unproven pitcher, should be paid the same $14MM a year. At least I don't think there is...and I have as much of a right to make that assumption that you do to insist he'll end up with 3/$42 or whatever.

Further, I'm banking on at least a 4 year deal. Boras wants 3, Boston wants 5...they've got a good history and they'll meet in the middle. $13MM per year, max...I think $12MM is more likely. At $13MM per year, that's a $103.1MM commitment if you count the posting fee as part of the cost.

But regardless of what Matsuzaka signs: (and he will sign) This is a long-term investment. They WILL make money in Japan. Boston's trying to enter the market with a bang, and sign themselves a 26 year old ace in the process. This is their entry into the Far East; they plan to follow it up with training complexes in Taiwan and China (Gammons). And they're already putting together the TV deals that would air all of Matsuzaka's games with Japanese ads instead of American; when Matsuzaka faces Hideki Matsui for the first time...we're talking big, big numbers.

Let's pretend he stays healthy; 4 years, 33 starts each. 132 starts. If they only make $250K per game in TV deals, they recoup $33MM. That seems pretty low, right? Let's say they get half a mil every time he starts; you can probably triple or quadruple that when he faces Ichiro or Matsui, or when he pitches in the playoffs. That's all added revenue Barry Zito doesn't bring. And it's a boatload of money.

If he busts or gets hurt and misses a ton of time...this deal is awful. God-awful. I know that. And they bid too much, I know that too. I recognize that $51.1MM is a lot of money to have to pay all at once. But any free-agent signing brings its risks...and the rewards in this case, both financial and in terms of success on the field and growth in the East...well, I think they outway the risk.

2 more things: One, Boras is in no way responsible for gyroball hype; that's been following Matsuzaka for at least 2 years now and Boras just became his agent. Plus big-league teams know the truth; hell, Matsuzaka has stated publicly he doesn't throw it. And Two, tpx, you were probably referencing Nomo and Irabu, right? Nomo's stats sucked in Japan near the end of his time there...I have no idea what people saw in him. Yeah his K/9 was over 10...but his bb/9 was like 6. Irabu was 2 years older when he came over here, and had pitched in a Japanese league that was nowhere near as talented as it is today. Not apt comparisons.

God I'm wordy. Sorry about that...but not really. :)

"Japanese pitchers have poor track records as it is. I don't see how this at all ends good for the Red Sox."

None of the Japanese pitchers who have come across the pond were, in Japan, even half as good as Daisuke. and he's only 26 years old. If he doesn't get hurt he's going to be an absolute monster. This isn't Hideki Irabu (who was older and much, much fatter, or Nomo (who was a trick pitcher) - this is the real deal. I have watched a couple games he's pitched (in the Japanese league) and he throws hard with three very good pitches and excellent control and impeccable command.
Having said that, whether he's worth 25 million or so a year is debateable. Clemens was paid at roughly that rate last year and the Astros went 9-10 in his starts (although he pitched really well). A. Rodrigues is paid 25 million a year and is widely viewed in NY as a disappointment. Huge contracts carry risks unrelated to on-field performance with regard to expectations. But having seen this dude pitch, there is no doubt in my mind that he's going to easily be the best pitcher in the AL East next season (barring injury, of course.)

I've been watching this seemingly shenanigan filled bidding process for the last week or so. While the conspiracy theory seems to consistantly be that the winning bidder may have an under the table deal with Seibu to not pay the full posting fee, that scenario is of course illegal according to the MLB rules regarding the posting process.

Has anyone considered that instead of that scenario, the Red Sox have skirted the "legal" rules (while guaranteeing the Lions a huge $ figure) by having a three way agreement with Matsuzaka/Boras and the Seibu Lions. Lets say hypothetically, prior to posting they guarantee the Lions 30 milllion dollars regardless of other bids (a figure at the high end pre-posting process), complete a lower end deal with Boras on the taxable MLB contract for Matsuzaka (cutting the real dollar value the Sox will be spending), while the Seibu Lions give Matsuzaka/Boras a 10-20 million dollar check so as to make the money work for them. Thereby making all three sides happy, while limiting risk to all parties.

I've been searching for the reasoning behind this deal and I think this theory may have actually shed some new light on this. Looking at the posting guidelines, the red sox would not have technically broken rules if they negotiated this deal. Thoughts, beyond the fact that I may be skewed towards the conspiratoral side?

(Unless you want to talk about the Red Sox guaranteeing a contract for J.D. Drew (Boras client) before he opted out of his dodger contract. That I will discuss)

jfarb19@yahoo.com

I'm 90% sure that an under the table deal like that is specifically prohibitted by the rules. I think that'd qualify as tampering. Really...look no further then Boston's increased revenue in Japan...I'm convinced that's why Boston through out a bid they knew would win.

As for the Drew thing...that wouldn't surprise me a hell of a lot.

I'm absolutely stoked that the Sawx have made this bid. It's a huge move and absolutely necessary to keep pace with the Yankee$.

It wouldn't surprise me in the least to find out that John Henry put the money up himself for the bid.

As ridiculous as the dollar figure is, it just goes to show how important starting pitching has become. While having the best starting rotation isn't a title guarantee (see the Atlanta Braves), it is a fundamental building block.

By the way, the whole Bobby Abreu comparison doesn't even work for me simply for the fact that his trade doesn't expand the Red Sox name in a major global financial market. There's far more Yen to be made from this deal than the Bolivares the Yankee$ will ever make.

I find it interesting that anyone would use an $ for the end of Yankees in this particular thread. If ever we can't talk smack about the Yankees dollar tendencies, it would be this week. Regardless, the Sox have the economic muscle to go a few rounds with New York, and as long as they intelligently (like here, I think) then I am glad they are doing so. Their philosophy is to constantly exploit whatever they find undervalued. At this moment they figured Asian advertising dollars and Asian exposure for potential future signings was what was undervalued and they struck. Within the next few years you watch as most other major league teams try to capitalize in this fashion, but they are already far behind the Ms, Yankees, and Sox.

On top of that, I think any way you look at it, Daisuke is the best pitcher in the world not currently pitching in the major leagues. The BA guys have already said he immediately becomes the #1 prospect in all of baseball. He is undoubtedly the best pitcher to ever come across from Japan, and provided he has a long successful career, could be the single most important player to ever make this transition. I love Ichiro to death, but pitching is always valued higher. Time will certainly tell. If he becomes at least a solid grade B pitcher and the marketing $ and talent future acquisition goals of the Sox are met, then this will be a double coup - in my opinion. I think he will get a 4-5 year deal. No way Boras has the leverage to get only 3, and maybe only 4 - the Sox one upped him with that practically obnoxious bid and the pressure is on him. Plus Daisuke apparently very much wants to play in the US quite immediately, and Boras will make sure he does. Besides, the difficult transition favors more guaranteed dollars - cause if he sucks, that is one huge albatross.

Regarding Abreu, two things: 1) no one knew at the trading deadline how the CBA would change the free agent market this offseason, no 2007 contracts can be compared the 2006 contracts the same way no 2000 contracts can be compared to 1999 ones. 2) The Yankees have a different valuation system than the Sox do, Period. (and as we all know, Abreu would have been the difference maker in the Sox' 06 season. And if we get Drew, (sorry about all the "we"s by the way) then we are better off with him for next season anyway, in every way.

And Zito and Schmidt don't count? Why not? At least with them, they're known quantities. Japanese pitchers have poor track records as it is. I don't see how this at all ends good for the Red Sox.

Posted by tpxDMD at November 14, 2006 11:23 PM

As a Red Sox fan, you could "count" on Zito to be pounded on by the yanks.

As for Schmidt, he has his own minuses. Hes had a problem with injuries, he has never played in the American league, and hes also seven years older than Matsuzaka.

As far as I know, Hideo Nomo, Irabu, and Kazuhisa Ishii are the only Japanese 'Starting Pitchers' to have played here in the US.

None of them have been as highly regarded as Matsuzaka. Matsuzaka has been called the pitching equivalent to Ichiro. Every Japanese pitcher born after 1980 have been refered to as the Matsuzaka generation. Hes being compared to Pedro in his prime, being able to throw 4 plus pitches any time in the count.

I think the Red Sox simply determined that he was the best starting pitcher available and kept the Yankees from adding to their one reliable pitcher (Wang). The Red Sox get a good young pitcher, while the Yanks settle for plan B and hope their aging rotation can hold up till Hughes comes in.

The Red Sox give up nothing but cash, increase their profile in the far east, add to their stable of hard throwing young arms, and at the very least keep him away from the Yankees.

I see NOTHING bad about this move.